Running backs - get 'em. Trust me. (1 Viewer)

[Kenny Powers]

I agree with this, although in PPR I think you have a little more leeway. I just totally disagree with reaching up for a Ridley or SJax in the 3rd round or god forbid 2nd just to fill out a roster spot with a known commodity. A big part of this game is forgoing mediocrity to take shots at big payoffs and finding ways to adjust in FA or via trades if your gambles dont pay off. Good enough to lose with, in other words.

SJax might as well be the definition of a known commodity. Thats the thing this year, all these RBs are going in the first 2 rounds because they are known commodities.

I think the old adage "you cant win your league in the early rounds but you can lose it" is as relevant as ever this year. I actually think basically everyone going in the first 2 rounds, all positions, are a safe bet to not bust barring injury. However, if you grab some combination of WR/QB/Graham in those 2 rounds, youre really putting yourself behind the 8ball at RB and hoping to mine gold from a low-end RB2 or worse to be your RB1, and so forth. You can still find stud QBs and WRs after this point, you cant say the same for the RBs.

 

[pantherclub]

I agree with this, although in PPR I think you have a little more leeway. I just totally disagree with reaching up for a Ridley or SJax in the 3rd round or god forbid 2nd just to fill out a roster spot with a known commodity. A big part of this game is forgoing mediocrity to take shots at big payoffs and finding ways to adjust in FA or via trades if your gambles dont pay off. Good enough to lose with, in other words.

SJax might as well be the definition of a known commodity. Thats the thing this year, all these RBs are going in the first 2 rounds because they are known commodities.

I think the old adage "you cant win your league in the early rounds but you can lose it" is as relevant as ever this year. I actually think basically everyone going in the first 2 rounds, all positions, are a safe bet to not bust barring injury. However, if you grab some combination of WR/QB/Graham in those 2 rounds, youre really putting yourself behind the 8ball at RB and hoping to mine gold from a low-end RB2 or worse to be your RB1, and so forth. You can still find stud QBs and WRs after this point, you cant say the same for the RBs.

once again you for some reason fail to acknowledge that 60% of the top 12 rb are out right busts.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I agree with this, although in PPR I think you have a little more leeway. I just totally disagree with reaching up for a Ridley or SJax in the 3rd round or god forbid 2nd just to fill out a roster spot with a known commodity. A big part of this game is forgoing mediocrity to take shots at big payoffs and finding ways to adjust in FA or via trades if your gambles dont pay off. Good enough to lose with, in other words.

SJax is going in the 2nd on average, if you got him in the third, he would be "falling" to you. Ridley is also going late 2nd/early 3rd for the most part. In neither case would you be reaching and in neither case are the RBs mediocre.

 

[mbuehner]

I agree with this, although in PPR I think you have a little more leeway. I just totally disagree with reaching up for a Ridley or SJax in the 3rd round or god forbid 2nd just to fill out a roster spot with a known commodity. A big part of this game is forgoing mediocrity to take shots at big payoffs and finding ways to adjust in FA or via trades if your gambles dont pay off. Good enough to lose with, in other words.

SJax is going in the 2nd on average, if you got him in the third, he would be "falling" to you. Ridley is also going late 2nd/early 3rd for the most part. In neither case would you be reaching and in neither case are the RBs mediocre.

Neither will finish top 10 and the only reason they are drafted that high is because we dont know who will finish above them and its very safe to take mediocrity instead.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I agree with this, although in PPR I think you have a little more leeway. I just totally disagree with reaching up for a Ridley or SJax in the 3rd round or god forbid 2nd just to fill out a roster spot with a known commodity. A big part of this game is forgoing mediocrity to take shots at big payoffs and finding ways to adjust in FA or via trades if your gambles dont pay off. Good enough to lose with, in other words.

SJax is going in the 2nd on average, if you got him in the third, he would be "falling" to you. Ridley is also going late 2nd/early 3rd for the most part. In neither case would you be reaching and in neither case are the RBs mediocre.

Neither will finish top 10 and the only reason they are drafted that high is because we dont know who will finish above them and its very safe to take mediocrity instead.

What else is that crystal ball of yours telling you? Both RBs undoubtedly have top 10 ceilings, for a myriad of reasons, but also carry some risk which ultimately leaves them pegged as high-end RB2s on draft day. I also feel like you're implying anything outside of top 10 is mediocre, which isn't the case.

 

[zftcg]

Something similar happened in my draft over the weekend, 10 team, 0.5 ppr, 6 pt tds.

Mad rush for RBs in first 2 rounds, then in the 3rd and 4th, everything went haywire, like nothing I had seen during any mock draft, and I must have done at least 50. Needles to say, I was very happy to pick up Ridley in the 4th.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/fh1is6u8arhmdan/photo.PNG

Um, the fact that Peyton went in the 2nd round and Rodgers went in the 4th (after Kaepernick) makes me question everything associated with your league.

 

[LususV]

I agree with this, although in PPR I think you have a little more leeway. I just totally disagree with reaching up for a Ridley or SJax in the 3rd round or god forbid 2nd just to fill out a roster spot with a known commodity. A big part of this game is forgoing mediocrity to take shots at big payoffs and finding ways to adjust in FA or via trades if your gambles dont pay off. Good enough to lose with, in other words.

SJax might as well be the definition of a known commodity. Thats the thing this year, all these RBs are going in the first 2 rounds because they are known commodities.

I think the old adage "you cant win your league in the early rounds but you can lose it" is as relevant as ever this year. I actually think basically everyone going in the first 2 rounds, all positions, are a safe bet to not bust barring injury. However, if you grab some combination of WR/QB/Graham in those 2 rounds, youre really putting yourself behind the 8ball at RB and hoping to mine gold from a low-end RB2 or worse to be your RB1, and so forth. You can still find stud QBs and WRs after this point, you cant say the same for the RBs.

once again you for some reason fail to acknowledge that 60% of the top 12 rb are out right busts.

And there's some bizarre assumption that the WRs after the studs are gone are 'studs' without risk. I'm sorry, If Cobb were my WR1, I'd be more afraid of a bust than if DWilson were my RB1.

 

[mbuehner]

I agree with this, although in PPR I think you have a little more leeway. I just totally disagree with reaching up for a Ridley or SJax in the 3rd round or god forbid 2nd just to fill out a roster spot with a known commodity. A big part of this game is forgoing mediocrity to take shots at big payoffs and finding ways to adjust in FA or via trades if your gambles dont pay off. Good enough to lose with, in other words.

SJax is going in the 2nd on average, if you got him in the third, he would be "falling" to you. Ridley is also going late 2nd/early 3rd for the most part. In neither case would you be reaching and in neither case are the RBs mediocre.

Neither will finish top 10 and the only reason they are drafted that high is because we dont know who will finish above them and its very safe to take mediocrity instead.

What else is that crystal ball of yours telling you? Both RBs undoubtedly have top 10 ceilings, for a myriad of reasons, but also carry some risk which ultimately leaves them pegged as high-end RB2s on draft day. I also feel like you're implying anything outside of top 10 is mediocre, which isn't the case.

I dont want to focus on 2 guys in this tier because they all have issues- but point being SJax has been top 10 twice in his career (8 and 10) and if you think hed up for a carrier year now... you arent seeing what im seeing out of him so far. Ridley hit 10th last year in a historic patriots offensive season... one that was ahistoric in patriots rushing tds. If you think he can beat that... ok, good luck.

And for me I want my players ceilings to be elite. They may fail but id prefer 3 starters much later with potential to be breakout studs than burning a 2nd round pick on guys I know will at best be ok RB2s.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I agree with this, although in PPR I think you have a little more leeway. I just totally disagree with reaching up for a Ridley or SJax in the 3rd round or god forbid 2nd just to fill out a roster spot with a known commodity. A big part of this game is forgoing mediocrity to take shots at big payoffs and finding ways to adjust in FA or via trades if your gambles dont pay off. Good enough to lose with, in other words.

SJax is going in the 2nd on average, if you got him in the third, he would be "falling" to you. Ridley is also going late 2nd/early 3rd for the most part. In neither case would you be reaching and in neither case are the RBs mediocre.

Neither will finish top 10 and the only reason they are drafted that high is because we dont know who will finish above them and its very safe to take mediocrity instead.

What else is that crystal ball of yours telling you? Both RBs undoubtedly have top 10 ceilings, for a myriad of reasons, but also carry some risk which ultimately leaves them pegged as high-end RB2s on draft day. I also feel like you're implying anything outside of top 10 is mediocre, which isn't the case.

I dont want to focus on 2 guys in this tier because they all have issues- but point being SJax has been top 10 twice in his career (8 and 10) and if you think hed up for a carrier year now... you arent seeing what im seeing out of him so far. Ridley hit 10th last year in a historic patriots offensive season... one that was ahistoric in patriots rushing tds. If you think he can beat that... ok, good luck.

And for me I want my players ceilings to be elite. They may fail but id prefer 3 starters much later with potential to be breakout studs than burning a 2nd round pick on guys I know will at best be ok RB2s.

Not only did NE lead the league in rushing TDs last year but they've lead the league in rushing TDs over the past three years. They've also lead the league in rushing attempts within the 10 yard line over that span. Last year wasn't a fluke, Ridley was just the perfect fit as he excels at the GL. That's not all however, as he was 7th in yards after contact and broke as many tackles as Reggie Bush. Who knows what his ceiling is but he could feasibly score more TDs this year.

I'm staying away from SJax, not because I don't think he can have a career year on an ATL offense whose potency dwarfs any team he has been apart of since the inception of his career, but because the the wheels will fall off sooner than later and I don't want to be caught with him when they do.

Regardless, they both have RB1/top 10 ceilings this year. You're underestimating their ceilings.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I agree with this, although in PPR I think you have a little more leeway. I just totally disagree with reaching up for a Ridley or SJax in the 3rd round or god forbid 2nd just to fill out a roster spot with a known commodity. A big part of this game is forgoing mediocrity to take shots at big payoffs and finding ways to adjust in FA or via trades if your gambles dont pay off. Good enough to lose with, in other words.

SJax might as well be the definition of a known commodity. Thats the thing this year, all these RBs are going in the first 2 rounds because they are known commodities.

I think the old adage "you cant win your league in the early rounds but you can lose it" is as relevant as ever this year. I actually think basically everyone going in the first 2 rounds, all positions, are a safe bet to not bust barring injury. However, if you grab some combination of WR/QB/Graham in those 2 rounds, youre really putting yourself behind the 8ball at RB and hoping to mine gold from a low-end RB2 or worse to be your RB1, and so forth. You can still find stud QBs and WRs after this point, you cant say the same for the RBs.

once again you for some reason fail to acknowledge that 60% of the top 12 rb are out right busts.

Once again you fail to look at the top 12 RBs this year on an individual basis and why its likely they succeed, and instead use turnover stats on Top 12 RBs when this year it is less applicable then any year I can recall in recent memory.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I agree with this, although in PPR I think you have a little more leeway. I just totally disagree with reaching up for a Ridley or SJax in the 3rd round or god forbid 2nd just to fill out a roster spot with a known commodity. A big part of this game is forgoing mediocrity to take shots at big payoffs and finding ways to adjust in FA or via trades if your gambles dont pay off. Good enough to lose with, in other words.

SJax might as well be the definition of a known commodity. Thats the thing this year, all these RBs are going in the first 2 rounds because they are known commodities.

I think the old adage "you cant win your league in the early rounds but you can lose it" is as relevant as ever this year. I actually think basically everyone going in the first 2 rounds, all positions, are a safe bet to not bust barring injury. However, if you grab some combination of WR/QB/Graham in those 2 rounds, youre really putting yourself behind the 8ball at RB and hoping to mine gold from a low-end RB2 or worse to be your RB1, and so forth. You can still find stud QBs and WRs after this point, you cant say the same for the RBs.

once again you for some reason fail to acknowledge that 60% of the top 12 rb are out right busts.

And there's some bizarre assumption that the WRs after the studs are gone are 'studs' without risk. I'm sorry, If Cobb were my WR1, I'd be more afraid of a bust than if DWilson were my RB1.

While I agree the top 6 WRs have separated themselves for various reasons compared to other WR1's as to why they are the hands down Top 6 guys (Mega, Green, Julio, Demaryius, Marshall, Dez), it still makes me scratch my head why some people here (typically the same handful or so of posters) think it is advisable going WR/WR or using upside down drafting this year when on average 15-16 RBs are going in the first couple rounds.

 

[Pumpnick]

just did a $1250 de ffpc league and the title of this thread is spot on

 

[SameSongNDance]

just did a $1250 de ffpc league and the title of this thread is spot on

I have my $2500 one this Sunday. I'm obviously expecting much of the same and to have a rather difficult decision to make at 2.07.

 

[LawFitz]

I agree with this, although in PPR I think you have a little more leeway. I just totally disagree with reaching up for a Ridley or SJax in the 3rd round or god forbid 2nd just to fill out a roster spot with a known commodity. A big part of this game is forgoing mediocrity to take shots at big payoffs and finding ways to adjust in FA or via trades if your gambles dont pay off. Good enough to lose with, in other words.

SJax might as well be the definition of a known commodity. Thats the thing this year, all these RBs are going in the first 2 rounds because they are known commodities.

I think the old adage "you cant win your league in the early rounds but you can lose it" is as relevant as ever this year. I actually think basically everyone going in the first 2 rounds, all positions, are a safe bet to not bust barring injury. However, if you grab some combination of WR/QB/Graham in those 2 rounds, youre really putting yourself behind the 8ball at RB and hoping to mine gold from a low-end RB2 or worse to be your RB1, and so forth. You can still find stud QBs and WRs after this point, you cant say the same for the RBs.

once again you for some reason fail to acknowledge that 60% of the top 12 rb are out right busts.

And there's some bizarre assumption that the WRs after the studs are gone are 'studs' without risk. I'm sorry, If Cobb were my WR1, I'd be more afraid of a bust than if DWilson were my RB1.

While I agree the top 6 WRs have separated themselves for various reasons compared to other WR1's as to why they are the hands down Top 6 guys (Mega, Green, Julio, Demaryius, Marshall, Dez), it still makes me scratch my head why some people here (typically the same handful or so of posters) think it is advisable going WR/WR or using upside down drafting this year when on average 15-16 RBs are going in the first couple rounds.

Short answer is that upside down may not only be viable, but superior, even this year in formats that don't overrate relative RB valuation.

 

[Pumpnick]

just did a $1250 de ffpc league and the title of this thread is spot on

I have my $2500 one this Sunday. I'm obviously expecting much of the same and to have a rather difficult decision to make at 2.07.

17 of the first 20 picks were RB

 

[Pumpnick]

just did a $1250 de ffpc league and the title of this thread is spot on

I have my $2500 one this Sunday. I'm obviously expecting much of the same and to have a rather difficult decision to make at 2.07.

17 of the first 20 picks were RB

also drich, bernard, bradshaw, ball, vereen all in the 4th. lacy, miller, wilson late 2nd/early 3rd.

 

[chickensoup]

I agree with this, although in PPR I think you have a little more leeway. I just totally disagree with reaching up for a Ridley or SJax in the 3rd round or god forbid 2nd just to fill out a roster spot with a known commodity. A big part of this game is forgoing mediocrity to take shots at big payoffs and finding ways to adjust in FA or via trades if your gambles dont pay off. Good enough to lose with, in other words.

SJax might as well be the definition of a known commodity. Thats the thing this year, all these RBs are going in the first 2 rounds because they are known commodities.

I think the old adage "you cant win your league in the early rounds but you can lose it" is as relevant as ever this year. I actually think basically everyone going in the first 2 rounds, all positions, are a safe bet to not bust barring injury. However, if you grab some combination of WR/QB/Graham in those 2 rounds, youre really putting yourself behind the 8ball at RB and hoping to mine gold from a low-end RB2 or worse to be your RB1, and so forth. You can still find stud QBs and WRs after this point, you cant say the same for the RBs.

once again you for some reason fail to acknowledge that 60% of the top 12 rb are out right busts.

Define bust. Is it drafted as the 12th RB but getting 15th? Is it being RB4 until week 14 then getting injured and falling to RB13?

RBs getting injured is not a reason to avoid drafting RB early. Injury is like 95% (yes made up) of the reason RB has turnover at the top. It can be because a guy who is normally top 12 was injured the year before and you get him at a discount (AP/Charles). It can be because the incumbent top guy (Jackson) gets injured and his backup (Spiller) ends up being really really good (in this case it's double turnover as it bumps a second guy out).

People are getting too gaga over the Martin/Morris cases of last year. Well lets put it this way. If you upside down drafted last year and missed Morris on waivers by $1 and Martin was taken 1 spot before you picked, how do you think you fared last year? Not well at all.

A guy posted his upside down draft in a $500 league he just drafted. I give him maybe a 20% chance at most of making the playoffs. His every week starting RB is Daryl Richardson. His second is Rashard Mendenhall. It would shock me if he has 2 starting RB at week 6 this year. He is counting on an injury to win. Straight up. Expecting long term success drafting this way is absurd. Especially when the only guys that are going to get decent touches without huge questions surrounding them are gone in the first 30 picks of the draft.

I'll gladly join any league against anyone who wants to upside down draft this year.

 

[SameSongNDance]

just did a $1250 de ffpc league and the title of this thread is spot on

I have my $2500 one this Sunday. I'm obviously expecting much of the same and to have a rather difficult decision to make at 2.07.

17 of the first 20 picks were RB

Amazing. Which WRs were left at 2.07? There were obviously at least 3 studs left right? Likely 4.

 

[bucsbaby]

You're assuming DRich and Mendenhall won't hold up -- who's to say they won't??? It's not like DRich is an injury risk and he's CLEARLY outplayed the other two guys on the roster. I like him to outplay his adp by a significant amount. Mendenhall is the definition of unsexy RB2. Sure, there is some injury risk there, but he could outlast someone like Foster drafted in the top of the 1st, who is also an injury risk. Mendenhall is the clear bellcow on his team and should have an improved offense with Carson Palmer at the helm.

If that guy's RBs hold serve, his strength at his other positions could easily carry him into the playoffs.

I'd REALLY like to see someone post VBD numbers to support their position that chasing the round 2-3 RBs is a better decision than taking the round 2-3 WRs.

 

[ImTheScientist]

You're assuming DRich and Mendenhall won't hold up -- who's to say they won't??? It's not like DRich is an injury risk and he's CLEARLY outplayed the other two guys on the roster. I like him to outplay his adp by a significant amount. Mendenhall is the definition of unsexy RB2. Sure, there is some injury risk there, but he could outlast someone like Foster drafted in the top of the 1st, who is also an injury risk. Mendenhall is the clear bellcow on his team and should have an improved offense with Carson Palmer at the helm.

If that guy's RBs hold serve, his strength at his other positions could easily carry him into the playoffs.

I'd REALLY like to see someone post VBD numbers to support their position that chasing the round 2-3 RBs is a better decision than taking the round 2-3 WRs.

If the risk wasn't there they would be drafted higher. The probability of one making it through an entire season is poor....when you then need both your odds are worse.

 

[Pumpnick]

just did a $1250 de ffpc league and the title of this thread is spot on

I have my $2500 one this Sunday. I'm obviously expecting much of the same and to have a rather difficult decision to make at 2.07.

17 of the first 20 picks were RB

Amazing. Which WRs were left at 2.07? There were obviously at least 3 studs left right? Likely 4.

calvin went 1.6, dez 1.7, green 2.6. same team took dez and green.

 

[Pumpnick]

it was 16, graham was also selected

 

[bucsbaby]

If the risk wasn't there they would be drafted higher. The probability of one making it through an entire season is poor....when you then need both your odds are worse.

I see no risk at all of DRich making it through the season. So, we're just looking at Mendenhall. He has no threat to his carries, so his health is the only question. At his ADP, I'll take that risk all day.

EDIT:

Threats to DRich:

Pead -- DRich has outplayed him substantially, plus Pead has the week 1 suspension. I don't see how Pead is much of a threat, if any, to cut into DRich's production in any significant way.

Stacy -- rookie RB who DRich has outplayed. I can see him vulturing some short yardage TDs. However, I still like DRich to get most of the work between the 20s and to catch the large majority of the passes out of the backfield.

 

[Pumpnick]

just did a $1250 de ffpc league and the title of this thread is spot on

I have my $2500 one this Sunday. I'm obviously expecting much of the same and to have a rather difficult decision to make at 2.07.

17 of the first 20 picks were RB

Amazing. Which WRs were left at 2.07? There were obviously at least 3 studs left right? Likely 4.

calvin went 1.6, dez 1.7, green 2.6. same team took dez and green.

round1 - 9 rb taken, r2- 9 rb, r3- 6 rb, r4- 5 rb....so 29 in the first 4 rounds.

 

[SameSongNDance]

just did a $1250 de ffpc league and the title of this thread is spot on

I have my $2500 one this Sunday. I'm obviously expecting much of the same and to have a rather difficult decision to make at 2.07.

17 of the first 20 picks were RB

Amazing. Which WRs were left at 2.07? There were obviously at least 3 studs left right? Likely 4.

calvin went 1.6, dez 1.7, green 2.6. same team took dez and green.

round1 - 9 rb taken, r2- 9 rb, r3- 6 rb, r4- 5 rb....so 29 in the first 4 rounds.

The more I think about it the more I think this is just to be expected. I will say Dez at 1.07 is a bit odd though but I guess that guy was doing an upside down draft. May I ask, which RBs did that guy draft? Thanks in advance for the info.

 

[Pumpnick]

just did a $1250 de ffpc league and the title of this thread is spot on

I have my $2500 one this Sunday. I'm obviously expecting much of the same and to have a rather difficult decision to make at 2.07.

17 of the first 20 picks were RB

Amazing. Which WRs were left at 2.07? There were obviously at least 3 studs left right? Likely 4.

calvin went 1.6, dez 1.7, green 2.6. same team took dez and green.

round1 - 9 rb taken, r2- 9 rb, r3- 6 rb, r4- 5 rb....so 29 in the first 4 rounds.

The more I think about it the more I think this is just to be expected. I will say Dez at 1.07 is a bit odd though but I guess that guy was doing an upside down draft. May I ask, which RBs did that guy draft? Thanks in advance for the info.

mcfadden 3rd, drich 4th, brees 5.07 first qb taken

 

[Judge Smails]

Our big money league is very competitive. No guppies. 15+ years playing for a 6K+ pot.

If you look around the room and cannot spot the guppy.........

getting caught up in a RB run in the first and second run is the ultimate guppy play

Whatever dude. Cashed for $3200 as SuperBowl champion last year. Not your $20 Yahoo League. Think what you want. My first 3 picks were Morris (I thought he was in the same tier after ADP, loved him, not a reach at all) AJ Green, Victor Cruz. So how did I follow the runs again?

 

[bucsbaby]

just did a $1250 de ffpc league and the title of this thread is spot on

I have my $2500 one this Sunday. I'm obviously expecting much of the same and to have a rather difficult decision to make at 2.07.

17 of the first 20 picks were RB

Amazing. Which WRs were left at 2.07? There were obviously at least 3 studs left right? Likely 4.

calvin went 1.6, dez 1.7, green 2.6. same team took dez and green.

round1 - 9 rb taken, r2- 9 rb, r3- 6 rb, r4- 5 rb....so 29 in the first 4 rounds.

The more I think about it the more I think this is just to be expected. I will say Dez at 1.07 is a bit odd though but I guess that guy was doing an upside down draft. May I ask, which RBs did that guy draft? Thanks in advance for the info.

mcfadden 3rd, drich 4th, brees 5.07 first qb taken

Brees in the 5th? That guy is going to win the league hands down imo.

Or, as FBG would say: "virtual lock"

 

[Kenny Powers]

If the risk wasn't there they would be drafted higher. The probability of one making it through an entire season is poor....when you then need both your odds are worse.

I see no risk at all of DRich making it through the season. So, we're just looking at Mendenhall. He has no threat to his carries, so his health is the only question. At his ADP, I'll take that risk all day.

EDIT:

Threats to DRich:

Pead -- DRich has outplayed him substantially, plus Pead has the week 1 suspension. I don't see how Pead is much of a threat, if any, to cut into DRich's production in any significant way.

Stacy -- rookie RB who DRich has outplayed. I can see him vulturing some short yardage TDs. However, I still like DRich to get most of the work between the 20s and to catch the large majority of the passes out of the backfield.

You are trying to support the thought on RB3's being more than that. You sound ready to take that risk, I however wont. You are hoping these RBs hit their ceiling, while I will take WRs in the middle rounds and they are far more likely to hit their ADP.

 

[bucsbaby]

Assumptions: PPR, start 2RB, start 3WR, no Flex, using current aggregate PPR ADP data from fantasypros, trying to select RB/WR positions from approx. middle of each round

Q: Which has more projected VBD?

Team 1:

Round 1: RB6

Round 2: RB12

Round 3: RB18

Round 4: WR15

Round 5: WR21

Round 6: WR25

Team 2:

Round 1: WR1

Round 2: WR5

Round 3: WR9

Round 4: RB23

Round 5: RB26

Round 6: RB29

A:?

 

[bucsbaby]

If the risk wasn't there they would be drafted higher. The probability of one making it through an entire season is poor....when you then need both your odds are worse.

I see no risk at all of DRich making it through the season. So, we're just looking at Mendenhall. He has no threat to his carries, so his health is the only question. At his ADP, I'll take that risk all day.

EDIT:

Threats to DRich:

Pead -- DRich has outplayed him substantially, plus Pead has the week 1 suspension. I don't see how Pead is much of a threat, if any, to cut into DRich's production in any significant way.

Stacy -- rookie RB who DRich has outplayed. I can see him vulturing some short yardage TDs. However, I still like DRich to get most of the work between the 20s and to catch the large majority of the passes out of the backfield.

You are trying to support the thought on RB3's being more than that. You sound ready to take that risk, I however wont. You are hoping these RBs hit their ceiling, while I will take WRs in the middle rounds and they are far more likely to hit their ADP.

I'm fine with them being low-end RB2s or high-end RB3s. I expect DRich to be a mid-RB2 and Mendenhall to be a high-end RB3.

Edit to add: Mendenhall's ADP is RB32. Who out of the following is going to outscore him?

RB33: A Brown

RB34: BGE

RB35: Ingram

RB36: DWill

RB37: Tate

RB38: Hillman

RB39: Ballard

RB40: Pierce

RB41: FJax

RB42: B Brown

RB43: Woodhead

RB44: JStew

RB45: Leshoure

etc.

 

[Pumpnick]

Assumptions: PPR, start 2RB, start 3WR, no Flex, using current aggregate PPR ADP data from fantasypros, trying to select RB/WR positions from approx. middle of each round

Q: Which has more projected VBD?

Team 1:

Round 1: RB6

Round 2: RB12

Round 3: RB18

Round 4: WR15

Round 5: WR21

Round 6: WR25

Team 2:

Round 1: WR1

Round 2: WR5

Round 3: WR9

Round 4: RB23

Round 5: RB26

Round 6: RB29

A:?

prob with this is rb 29 went in the 4th round and wr 25 the 7th

 

[Kenny Powers]

If the risk wasn't there they would be drafted higher. The probability of one making it through an entire season is poor....when you then need both your odds are worse.

I see no risk at all of DRich making it through the season. So, we're just looking at Mendenhall. He has no threat to his carries, so his health is the only question. At his ADP, I'll take that risk all day.

EDIT:

Threats to DRich:

Pead -- DRich has outplayed him substantially, plus Pead has the week 1 suspension. I don't see how Pead is much of a threat, if any, to cut into DRich's production in any significant way.

Stacy -- rookie RB who DRich has outplayed. I can see him vulturing some short yardage TDs. However, I still like DRich to get most of the work between the 20s and to catch the large majority of the passes out of the backfield.

You are trying to support the thought on RB3's being more than that. You sound ready to take that risk, I however wont. You are hoping these RBs hit their ceiling, while I will take WRs in the middle rounds and they are far more likely to hit their ADP.

I'm fine with them being low-end RB2s or high-end RB3s. I expect DRich to be a mid-RB2 and Mendenhall to be a high-end RB3.

Cool. At the same time, you couldve drafted RBs early and still get your WR1 and WR2 before you considered taking DRich and Mendy

 

[bucsbaby]

Assumptions: PPR, start 2RB, start 3WR, no Flex, using current aggregate PPR ADP data from fantasypros, trying to select RB/WR positions from approx. middle of each round

Q: Which has more projected VBD?

Team 1:

Round 1: RB6

Round 2: RB12

Round 3: RB18

Round 4: WR15

Round 5: WR21

Round 6: WR25

Team 2:

Round 1: WR1

Round 2: WR5

Round 3: WR9

Round 4: RB23

Round 5: RB26

Round 6: RB29

A:?

prob with this is rb 29 went in the 4th round and wr 25 the 7th

It's not a problem at all, actually.

If the run on RBs is even more pronounced than aggregate ADP would indicate, it just means that there is even more pronounced value at other positions.

 

[bucsbaby]

If the risk wasn't there they would be drafted higher. The probability of one making it through an entire season is poor....when you then need both your odds are worse.

I see no risk at all of DRich making it through the season. So, we're just looking at Mendenhall. He has no threat to his carries, so his health is the only question. At his ADP, I'll take that risk all day.

EDIT:

Threats to DRich:

Pead -- DRich has outplayed him substantially, plus Pead has the week 1 suspension. I don't see how Pead is much of a threat, if any, to cut into DRich's production in any significant way.

Stacy -- rookie RB who DRich has outplayed. I can see him vulturing some short yardage TDs. However, I still like DRich to get most of the work between the 20s and to catch the large majority of the passes out of the backfield.

You are trying to support the thought on RB3's being more than that. You sound ready to take that risk, I however wont. You are hoping these RBs hit their ceiling, while I will take WRs in the middle rounds and they are far more likely to hit their ADP.

I'm fine with them being low-end RB2s or high-end RB3s. I expect DRich to be a mid-RB2 and Mendenhall to be a high-end RB3.

Cool. At the same time, you couldve drafted RBs early and still get your WR1 and WR2 before you considered taking DRich and Mendy

Show me some VBD examples to support your position. I'll hang up and wait.

 

[jbz]

this is why I've moved on from 1 QB leagues. There's no fun or strategy IMO in a league that just runs off 11 out of 12 1st rounders as RBs. Gone to a super flex league with some variation in scoring and it's a nice mix. RBs still dominate, but QBs, WRs and even TEs have been taken in the 1st. If everyone is a "shark" and drafts the same way (load up on RBs, wait on QBs) it gets quite mindless.

 

[Ilov80s]

this is why I've moved on from 1 QB leagues. There's no fun or strategy IMO in a league that just runs off 11 out of 12 1st rounders as RBs. Gone to a super flex league with some variation in scoring and it's a nice mix. RBs still dominate, but QBs, WRs and even TEs have been taken in the 1st. If everyone is a "shark" and drafts the same way (load up on RBs, wait on QBs) it gets quite mindless.

It changes every year. I am looking at 2012 ADP and Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Stafford, Calvin, Graham and Julio were all regularly going in the top 12.

 

[pantherclub]

If the risk wasn't there they would be drafted higher. The probability of one making it through an entire season is poor....when you then need both your odds are worse.

I see no risk at all of DRich making it through the season. So, we're just looking at Mendenhall. He has no threat to his carries, so his health is the only question. At his ADP, I'll take that risk all day.

EDIT:

Threats to DRich:

Pead -- DRich has outplayed him substantially, plus Pead has the week 1 suspension. I don't see how Pead is much of a threat, if any, to cut into DRich's production in any significant way.

Stacy -- rookie RB who DRich has outplayed. I can see him vulturing some short yardage TDs. However, I still like DRich to get most of the work between the 20s and to catch the large majority of the passes out of the backfield.

You are trying to support the thought on RB3's being more than that. You sound ready to take that risk, I however wont. You are hoping these RBs hit their ceiling, while I will take WRs in the middle rounds and they are far more likely to hit their ADP.

I'm fine with them being low-end RB2s or high-end RB3s. I expect DRich to be a mid-RB2 and Mendenhall to be a high-end RB3.

Cool. At the same time, you couldve drafted RBs early and still get your WR1 and WR2 before you considered taking DRich and Mendy

how in the hell would that be possible? Maybe in a 6 or 8 team league.

 

[(HULK)]

I agree with this, although in PPR I think you have a little more leeway. I just totally disagree with reaching up for a Ridley or SJax in the 3rd round or god forbid 2nd just to fill out a roster spot with a known commodity. A big part of this game is forgoing mediocrity to take shots at big payoffs and finding ways to adjust in FA or via trades if your gambles dont pay off. Good enough to lose with, in other words.

SJax might as well be the definition of a known commodity. Thats the thing this year, all these RBs are going in the first 2 rounds because they are known commodities.

I think the old adage "you cant win your league in the early rounds but you can lose it" is as relevant as ever this year. I actually think basically everyone going in the first 2 rounds, all positions, are a safe bet to not bust barring injury. However, if you grab some combination of WR/QB/Graham in those 2 rounds, youre really putting yourself behind the 8ball at RB and hoping to mine gold from a low-end RB2 or worse to be your RB1, and so forth. You can still find stud QBs and WRs after this point, you cant say the same for the RBs.

once again you for some reason fail to acknowledge that 60% of the top 12 rb are out right busts.

Define bust. Is it drafted as the 12th RB but getting 15th? Is it being RB4 until week 14 then getting injured and falling to RB13?

RBs getting injured is not a reason to avoid drafting RB early. Injury is like 95% (yes made up) of the reason RB has turnover at the top. It can be because a guy who is normally top 12 was injured the year before and you get him at a discount (AP/Charles). It can be because the incumbent top guy (Jackson) gets injured and his backup (Spiller) ends up being really really good (in this case it's double turnover as it bumps a second guy out).

People are getting too gaga over the Martin/Morris cases of last year. Well lets put it this way. If you upside down drafted last year and missed Morris on waivers by $1 and Martin was taken 1 spot before you picked, how do you think you fared last year? Not well at all.

A guy posted his upside down draft in a $500 league he just drafted. I give him maybe a 20% chance at most of making the playoffs. His every week starting RB is Daryl Richardson. His second is Rashard Mendenhall. It would shock me if he has 2 starting RB at week 6 this year. He is counting on an injury to win. Straight up. Expecting long term success drafting this way is absurd. Especially when the only guys that are going to get decent touches without huge questions surrounding them are gone in the first 30 picks of the draft.

I'll gladly join any league against anyone who wants to upside down draft this year.

At this point last year, I already KNEW to draft Martin, and I drafted Morris with my last pick frequently.At this point this year, I have NO CLUE what late round RB will blow up. In the 3rd and 4th round, my best guesses are Wilson and Lacy, but if you're drafting late 1st in a 12 man league, they may not even make it back to you in round 3.

This is not the year to go upside down. You'll end up starting a rotation of RBs from Arizona, St Louis, Indy, and maybe San Diego or Oakland. You will get TROUNCED every time you play the guy who drafted next to you in the late first when he rolls out Morris and Forte, players you passed on.

 

[(HULK)]

Assumptions: PPR, start 2RB, start 3WR, no Flex, using current aggregate PPR ADP data from fantasypros, trying to select RB/WR positions from approx. middle of each round

Q: Which has more projected VBD?

Team 1:

Round 1: RB6

Round 2: RB12

Round 3: RB18

Round 4: WR15

Round 5: WR21

Round 6: WR25

Team 2:

Round 1: WR1

Round 2: WR5

Round 3: WR9

Round 4: RB23

Round 5: RB26

Round 6: RB29

A:?

Just above this post there is an example where 29 RBs went in the first 3 rounds. So, try changing that to RB30, RB 33, RB 37. And probably move the WRs up some because obviously more WR talent is falling. One of Fitz/Andre makes it past the 3/4 turn in nearly every 12 team mock I've done. Thats more like WR 8-10 than WR 15.

 

[pantherclub]

I agree with this, although in PPR I think you have a little more leeway. I just totally disagree with reaching up for a Ridley or SJax in the 3rd round or god forbid 2nd just to fill out a roster spot with a known commodity. A big part of this game is forgoing mediocrity to take shots at big payoffs and finding ways to adjust in FA or via trades if your gambles dont pay off. Good enough to lose with, in other words.

SJax might as well be the definition of a known commodity. Thats the thing this year, all these RBs are going in the first 2 rounds because they are known commodities.

I think the old adage "you cant win your league in the early rounds but you can lose it" is as relevant as ever this year. I actually think basically everyone going in the first 2 rounds, all positions, are a safe bet to not bust barring injury. However, if you grab some combination of WR/QB/Graham in those 2 rounds, youre really putting yourself behind the 8ball at RB and hoping to mine gold from a low-end RB2 or worse to be your RB1, and so forth. You can still find stud QBs and WRs after this point, you cant say the same for the RBs.

once again you for some reason fail to acknowledge that 60% of the top 12 rb are out right busts.

Define bust. Is it drafted as the 12th RB but getting 15th? Is it being RB4 until week 14 then getting injured and falling to RB13?

RBs getting injured is not a reason to avoid drafting RB early. Injury is like 95% (yes made up) of the reason RB has turnover at the top. It can be because a guy who is normally top 12 was injured the year before and you get him at a discount (AP/Charles). It can be because the incumbent top guy (Jackson) gets injured and his backup (Spiller) ends up being really really good (in this case it's double turnover as it bumps a second guy out).

People are getting too gaga over the Martin/Morris cases of last year. Well lets put it this way. If you upside down drafted last year and missed Morris on waivers by $1 and Martin was taken 1 spot before you picked, how do you think you fared last year? Not well at all.

A guy posted his upside down draft in a $500 league he just drafted. I give him maybe a 20% chance at most of making the playoffs. His every week starting RB is Daryl Richardson. His second is Rashard Mendenhall. It would shock me if he has 2 starting RB at week 6 this year. He is counting on an injury to win. Straight up. Expecting long term success drafting this way is absurd. Especially when the only guys that are going to get decent touches without huge questions surrounding them are gone in the first 30 picks of the draft.

I'll gladly join any league against anyone who wants to upside down draft this year.

At this point last year, I already KNEW to draft Martin, and I drafted Morris with my last pick frequently.At this point this year, I have NO CLUE what late round RB will blow up. In the 3rd and 4th round, my best guesses are Wilson and Lacy, but if you're drafting late 1st in a 12 man league, they may not even make it back to you in round 3.

This is not the year to go upside down. You'll end up starting a rotation of RBs from Arizona, St Louis, Indy, and maybe San Diego or Oakland. You will get TROUNCED every time you play the guy who drafted next to you in the late first when he rolls out Morris and Forte, players you passed on.

how is this year any different? You are just overthinking things here and trying to justify your rational. Regardless of what Kenny powers says 50-60 percent of the top backs picked will not justify their ranking. Whether its injury or just suckitude it doesnt really matter.

 

[ponchsox]

Everyone in a 10 or 12 team league has a chance at 2 decent RB to start the draft. I love when people start making excuses why they failed to land quality running backs. The roster requirements are unfair or there was an unexpected run of running backs. YOU failed to anticipate this. Anyone who mocked draft could see the there would be a run on running backs.

 

[Man of Zen]

Our big money league is very competitive. No guppies. 15+ years playing for a 6K+ pot.

If you look around the room and cannot spot the guppy.........

getting caught up in a RB run in the first and second run is the ultimate guppy play

Whatever dude. Cashed for $3200 as SuperBowl champion last year. Not your $20 Yahoo League. Think what you want. My first 3 picks were Morris (I thought he was in the same tier after ADP, loved him, not a reach at all) AJ Green, Victor Cruz. So how did I follow the runs again?

Alfred Morris? In the first? Last year? Sorry man, I approve of the bravado, but this just isn't true.

Even in drafts pushing Labor Day, he was going in the 130's.

 

[We Tigers]

Assumptions: PPR, start 2RB, start 3WR, no Flex, using current aggregate PPR ADP data from fantasypros, trying to select RB/WR positions from approx. middle of each round

Q: Which has more projected VBD?

Team 1:

Round 1: RB6

Round 2: RB12

Round 3: RB18

Round 4: WR15

Round 5: WR21

Round 6: WR25

Team 2:

Round 1: WR1

Round 2: WR5

Round 3: WR9

Round 4: RB23

Round 5: RB26

Round 6: RB29

A:?

prob with this is rb 29 went in the 4th round and wr 25 the 7th

It's not a problem at all, actually.If the run on RBs is even more pronounced than aggregate ADP would indicate, it just means that there is even more pronounced value at other positions.

But it *is* a problem. It's similar to what happens if you sit back and wait too long in an auction draft. Yes, it's good to save some money so you can scoop up values in the middle and end of the draft, but at a certain point you have to spend it. There's a finite number of players to select, particularly in the higher tiers, not an infinite pool where you can maximize "value" regardless of conditions. If you let all the top RBs and top WRs and top TEs go off the board because they're all going for 10% more than you want to pay, good luck in 1) spending all your budget, and 2) having enough starter production to compete.To take it back to redraft, say you draft Brees in the 2nd. Nice pick. And yet when you get to the 6th round, somehow Cam Newton is still sitting there. You don't draft Cam, though, because although he presents obvious value there's an opportunity cost in not taking someone at a position you actually need. So you draft Cecil Shorts and move on.

At a certain point, the opportunity cost of not taking RBs early is going to catch up with you. A good draft isn't always about avoiding runs; it's also about figuring out which runs you need to join before the value of "value" becomes terminal.

 

[Pumpnick]

Assumptions: PPR, start 2RB, start 3WR, no Flex, using current aggregate PPR ADP data from fantasypros, trying to select RB/WR positions from approx. middle of each round

Q: Which has more projected VBD?

Team 1:

Round 1: RB6

Round 2: RB12

Round 3: RB18

Round 4: WR15

Round 5: WR21

Round 6: WR25

Team 2:

Round 1: WR1

Round 2: WR5

Round 3: WR9

Round 4: RB23

Round 5: RB26

Round 6: RB29

A:?

prob with this is rb 29 went in the 4th round and wr 25 the 7th

It's not a problem at all, actually.If the run on RBs is even more pronounced than aggregate ADP would indicate, it just means that there is even more pronounced value at other positions.

But it *is* a problem. It's similar to what happens if you sit back and wait too long in an auction draft. Yes, it's good to save some money so you can scoop up values in the middle and end of the draft, but at a certain point you have to spend it. There's a finite number of players to select, particularly in the higher tiers, not an infinite pool where you can maximize "value" regardless of conditions. If you let all the top RBs and top WRs and top TEs go off the board because they're all going for 10% more than you want to pay, good luck in 1) spending all your budget, and 2) having enough starter production to compete.To take it back to redraft, say you draft Brees in the 2nd. Nice pick. And yet when you get to the 6th round, somehow Cam Newton is still sitting there. You don't draft Cam, though, because although he presents obvious value there's an opportunity cost in not taking someone at a position you actually need. So you draft Cecil Shorts and move on.

At a certain point, the opportunity cost of not taking RBs early is going to catch up with you. A good draft isn't always about avoiding runs; it's also about figuring out which runs you need to join before the value of "value" becomes terminal.

great post. you'll have to select a rb and the "value" will not be there. lets say you have a late pick in re-draft... first round dez or forte, 2nd round green or morris, 3rd round gore or a johnson, 4th round drich or amendola, 5th round colston or ivory, 6th round a brown or mendenhall. The "value" is never to pick a RB, but you do eventually have to.

 

[Chaka]

The real tragedy is how the most valuable position in real football is criminally undervalued in fantasy football.

Add a QB flex option and stuff like this doesn't happen. Make it 3 starting WRs and 1/2 PPR too and things really become unpredictable.

Except for last year when everyone wanted to take a stud QB early. This year, there just happens to be a surprisingly deep group 15-20 RBs that all have top 10 potential.

If you want to fix it, you don't need QB flex. Just make 1 point per 10 yards passing like it is for every other position.

You need positional scarcity more than increasing scoring to create demand like you see with RBs in most FF formats.Whatever, not a big deal, it has just always baffled me how fantasy football loves to devalue the most important player on the team. Heck the QB is probably the most valuable player in all team sports but in fantasy they mean ####. Go figure.

See also: Goalie, hockey

I said sports.

 

[BigDave]

Just did a 10 team, 6point per td for all tds draft last night. 15+ year league with maybe one guppy(not me)

18/30 or 60% RB's in the first 3 rounds.

I drafted Martin at #4. I was hoping for Forte, Bryant or Green in that order at #17 and that didn't happen.

I was close to taking Ridley, but grabbed Brees instead. In my mock drafts I was gettting Gore or Bush in round 4 so I figured they would fall and didn't as other owners grabbed them in the 3rd round. Even Murray went in the 3rd.

I grabbed Wilson in the 4th, Miller in the 5th, Lacy in the 6th and Ball in the 9th.

Didn't pan out the way I planned, but got some decent later round pickups on RB's.

1 Peterson, Adrian RB MIN 0.0/0.0 2 Foster, Arian RB HOU

7 sec 0.0/0.0 3 Spiller, C.J. RB BUF 4 sec 0.0/0.0 4 Martin, Doug RB TB 5 sec 0.0/0.0 5 Lynch, Marshawn RB SEA 5 sec 0.0/0.0 6 Richardson, Trent RB CLE 5 sec 0.0/0.0 7 Charles, Jamaal RB KC 5 sec 0.0/0.0 8 McCoy, LeSean RB PHI 4 sec 0.0/0.0 9 Rice, Ray RB BAL 3 sec 0.0/0.0 10 Johnson, Calvin WR DET 5 sec 0.0/0.0 Round 2 Pick Team Player Elapsed Time Pts 1 Morris, Alfred RB WAS 16 sec 0.0/0.0 2 Forte, Matt RB CHI 5 sec 0.0/0.0 3 Green, A.J. WR CIN 7 sec 0.0/0.0 4 Jackson, Steven RB ATL 4 sec 0.0/0.0 5 Bryant, Dez WR DAL 3 sec 0.0/0.0 6 Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC 4 sec 0.0/0.0 7 Brees, Drew QB NO 7 sec 0.0/0.0 8 Ridley, Stevan RB NE 7 sec 0.0/0.0 9 Marshall, Brandon WR CHI 6 sec 0.0/0.0 10 Jones, Julio WR ATL 13 sec 0.0/0.0 Round 3 Pick Team Player Elapsed Time Pts 1 Rodgers, Aaron QB GB 1 min 24 sec 0.0/0.0 2 Cobb, Randall WR GB 8 sec 0.0/0.0 3 Johnson, Chris RB TEN 8 sec 0.0/0.0 4 Thomas, Demaryius WR DEN 9 sec 0.0/0.0 5 Gore, Frank RB SF 4 sec 0.0/0.0 6 Bush, Reggie RB DET 5 sec 0.0/0.0 7 Manning, Peyton QB DEN 6 sec 0.0/0.0 8 Graham, Jimmy TE NO 16 sec 0.0/0.0 9 Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI 5 sec 0.0/0.0 10 Murray, DeMarco RB DAL 7 sec 0.0/0.

 

[bucsbaby]

I agree with this, although in PPR I think you have a little more leeway. I just totally disagree with reaching up for a Ridley or SJax in the 3rd round or god forbid 2nd just to fill out a roster spot with a known commodity. A big part of this game is forgoing mediocrity to take shots at big payoffs and finding ways to adjust in FA or via trades if your gambles dont pay off. Good enough to lose with, in other words.

SJax might as well be the definition of a known commodity. Thats the thing this year, all these RBs are going in the first 2 rounds because they are known commodities.

I think the old adage "you cant win your league in the early rounds but you can lose it" is as relevant as ever this year. I actually think basically everyone going in the first 2 rounds, all positions, are a safe bet to not bust barring injury. However, if you grab some combination of WR/QB/Graham in those 2 rounds, youre really putting yourself behind the 8ball at RB and hoping to mine gold from a low-end RB2 or worse to be your RB1, and so forth. You can still find stud QBs and WRs after this point, you cant say the same for the RBs.

once again you for some reason fail to acknowledge that 60% of the top 12 rb are out right busts.

Define bust. Is it drafted as the 12th RB but getting 15th? Is it being RB4 until week 14 then getting injured and falling to RB13?

RBs getting injured is not a reason to avoid drafting RB early. Injury is like 95% (yes made up) of the reason RB has turnover at the top. It can be because a guy who is normally top 12 was injured the year before and you get him at a discount (AP/Charles). It can be because the incumbent top guy (Jackson) gets injured and his backup (Spiller) ends up being really really good (in this case it's double turnover as it bumps a second guy out).

People are getting too gaga over the Martin/Morris cases of last year. Well lets put it this way. If you upside down drafted last year and missed Morris on waivers by $1 and Martin was taken 1 spot before you picked, how do you think you fared last year? Not well at all.

A guy posted his upside down draft in a $500 league he just drafted. I give him maybe a 20% chance at most of making the playoffs. His every week starting RB is Daryl Richardson. His second is Rashard Mendenhall. It would shock me if he has 2 starting RB at week 6 this year. He is counting on an injury to win. Straight up. Expecting long term success drafting this way is absurd. Especially when the only guys that are going to get decent touches without huge questions surrounding them are gone in the first 30 picks of the draft.

I'll gladly join any league against anyone who wants to upside down draft this year.

At this point last year, I already KNEW to draft Martin, and I drafted Morris with my last pick frequently.At this point this year, I have NO CLUE what late round RB will blow up. In the 3rd and 4th round, my best guesses are Wilson and Lacy, but if you're drafting late 1st in a 12 man league, they may not even make it back to you in round 3.

This is not the year to go upside down. You'll end up starting a rotation of RBs from Arizona, St Louis, Indy, and maybe San Diego or Oakland. You will get TROUNCED every time you play the guy who drafted next to you in the late first when he rolls out Morris and Forte, players you passed on.

But it's not just RBs vs. RBs, it's TEAM "went RB early" vs. TEAM "went WR early". Again, provide VBD #s to back up your argument.

Assumptions: PPR, start 2RB, start 3WR, no Flex, using current aggregate PPR ADP data from fantasypros, trying to select RB/WR positions from approx. middle of each round

Q: Which has more projected VBD?

Team 1:

Round 1: RB6

Round 2: RB12

Round 3: RB18

Round 4: WR15

Round 5: WR21

Round 6: WR25

Team 2:

Round 1: WR1

Round 2: WR5

Round 3: WR9

Round 4: RB23

Round 5: RB26

Round 6: RB29

A:?

Just above this post there is an example where 29 RBs went in the first 3 rounds. So, try changing that to RB30, RB 33, RB 37. And probably move the WRs up some because obviously more WR talent is falling. One of Fitz/Andre makes it past the 3/4 turn in nearly every 12 team mock I've done. Thats more like WR 8-10 than WR 15.

That is one anecdotal draft compared to the aggregate ADP data I posted. It was also mentioned above about Brees going in round 5. If you're snagging three top 10 WRs in the first 3 rounds and a top 2 QB in round 5, I defy anyone to show me VBD #s that refute my argument that this team is going to be superior, even with taking RBs in the 30s.

 

[bucsbaby]

Assumptions: PPR, start 2RB, start 3WR, no Flex, using current aggregate PPR ADP data from fantasypros, trying to select RB/WR positions from approx. middle of each round

Q: Which has more projected VBD?

Team 1:

Round 1: RB6
Round 2: RB12
Round 3: RB18
Round 4: WR15
Round 5: WR21
Round 6: WR25

Team 2:

Round 1: WR1
Round 2: WR5
Round 3: WR9
Round 4: RB23
Round 5: RB26
Round 6: RB29

A:?

prob with this is rb 29 went in the 4th round and wr 25 the 7th

It's not a problem at all, actually.

If the run on RBs is even more pronounced than aggregate ADP would indicate, it just means that there is even more pronounced value at other positions.

But it *is* a problem. It's similar to what happens if you sit back and wait too long in an auction draft. Yes, it's good to save some money so you can scoop up values in the middle and end of the draft, but at a certain point you have to spend it. There's a finite number of players to select, particularly in the higher tiers, not an infinite pool where you can maximize "value" regardless of conditions. If you let all the top RBs and top WRs and top TEs go off the board because they're all going for 10% more than you want to pay, good luck in 1) spending all your budget, and 2) having enough starter production to compete.

To take it back to redraft, say you draft Brees in the 2nd. Nice pick. And yet when you get to the 6th round, somehow Cam Newton is still sitting there. You don't draft Cam, though, because although he presents obvious value there's an opportunity cost in not taking someone at a position you actually need. So you draft Cecil Shorts and move on.

At a certain point, the opportunity cost of not taking RBs early is going to catch up with you. A good draft isn't always about avoiding runs; it's also about figuring out which runs you need to join before the value of "value" becomes terminal.

No, it's *NOT* a problem -- you are misrepresenting my position and making a straw man. I never said to pass on the top WR and top TE talent. I said to scoop them up. It's NOT an auction and while people are chasing for RBs in the teens and 20s, I am scooping up top 10 WRs and a top 3 TE and adding significantly more VBD than I will give away when I am taking RBs in the 30s. Sure, if you wait until the RB 30s tier is gone, you're screwed, so if 30+ RBs go in the first 3 rounds, you're going to have to take RBs in the 3rd and 4th. However, the aggregate ADP data I posted suggests that, typically, the RB run tapers off after the 3rd round and the RB 30s tier is still available.

Assumptions: PPR, start 2RB, start 3WR, no Flex, using current aggregate PPR ADP data from fantasypros, trying to select RB/WR positions from approx. middle of each round

Q: Which has more projected VBD?

Team 1:

Round 1: RB6
Round 2: RB12
Round 3: RB18
Round 4: WR15
Round 5: WR21
Round 6: WR25

Team 2:

Round 1: WR1
Round 2: WR5
Round 3: WR9
Round 4: RB23
Round 5: RB26
Round 6: RB29

A:?

prob with this is rb 29 went in the 4th round and wr 25 the 7th

It's not a problem at all, actually.

If the run on RBs is even more pronounced than aggregate ADP would indicate, it just means that there is even more pronounced value at other positions.

But it *is* a problem. It's similar to what happens if you sit back and wait too long in an auction draft. Yes, it's good to save some money so you can scoop up values in the middle and end of the draft, but at a certain point you have to spend it. There's a finite number of players to select, particularly in the higher tiers, not an infinite pool where you can maximize "value" regardless of conditions. If you let all the top RBs and top WRs and top TEs go off the board because they're all going for 10% more than you want to pay, good luck in 1) spending all your budget, and 2) having enough starter production to compete.

To take it back to redraft, say you draft Brees in the 2nd. Nice pick. And yet when you get to the 6th round, somehow Cam Newton is still sitting there. You don't draft Cam, though, because although he presents obvious value there's an opportunity cost in not taking someone at a position you actually need. So you draft Cecil Shorts and move on.

At a certain point, the opportunity cost of not taking RBs early is going to catch up with you. A good draft isn't always about avoiding runs; it's also about figuring out which runs you need to join before the value of "value" becomes terminal.

great post. you'll have to select a rb and the "value" will not be there. lets say you have a late pick in re-draft... first round dez or forte, 2nd round green or morris, 3rd round gore or a johnson, 4th round drich or amendola, 5th round colston or ivory, 6th round a brown or mendenhall. The "value" is never to pick a RB, but you do eventually have to.

Well, duh. So, take value at the stud level and then roll the dice in the mid rounds where the huge VBD numbers have tapered off.

 

[Daru99]

QB and WR are really deep this season.

That is why RB value soared, not necessarily Rb scarcity, but plenty (more than 12) of good QB options in 1 x QB leagues and tons of WR.