Running backs - get 'em. Trust me. (1 Viewer)

[mbuehner]

The problem is nobody is comparing 'Top 10' WRs. Were talking about top 3 WRs.How often have they fallen out of the top spots? If WR 5-10 are the ones falling off it makes the Calvins of the world MORE valuable. Just like the rock solid stud RB is gold. We arent talking AP vs Calvin, and were not talking SJax vs Randall Cobb. Were talking a top 3WR vs a 8-10 RB.

 

[pantherclub]

cruz and welker were 12 and 13 last year

try this exercise with rb's

according to matthew berry in 2012 "Over the past three years, 42 percent of players who finished as top-20 fantasy running backs were not drafted as such."

I would assume that number is even greater from last year

 

[Junior McSpiffy]

It just amazes me how every time I get to rounds 6/7 the RB well is all but dried up but there's WR value galore. VBD dictates that I shouldn't follow the RB run if I'm out of position but I just feel like I'm at a legitimate disadvantage when I need to fill out a position with guys like A.Brown, BGE, Ingram, Tate, Hillman, Ballard, F. Jackson and etc. where as everyone else is filling out their position of need with guys like Shorts, Austin (both), Hilton, Mike Williams, Gordon and etc.

My guess is because in the moment it feels icky, but if you look back at the stark advantage you have at WR despite the "value" they are getting, it won't hurt so much. You have a weakness at RB2, but their WR1 will be worse than yours, as will their WR2 and presumable their WR3.

Oh, and the correct answer there is: Tate, followed by A Brown.

 

[Voodoo Rage]

Top 4 WR drafted according to ADP from MFL.com and where they finished weeks 1-16 in a PPR league:

2012

Calvin Johnson - #1 WR

Larry Fitzgerald - #30 WR

Julio Jones - #10 WR

Andre Johnson - #6 WR

2011

Andre Johnson - outside top 30

Calvin Johnson - #2 WR

Roddy White - #3 WR

Larry Fitzgerald - #6 WR

2010

Andre Johnson - #7 WR

Randy Moss - outside top 30

Reggie Wayne - #6 WR

Larry Fitzgerald - #18 WR

2009

Larry Fitzgerald - #6 WR

Andre Johnson - #1 WR

Randy Moss - #5 WR

Calvin Johnson - #24 WR

Yeah, well tough to argue with that. Top WR's are pretty undependable too. Guess we should be drafting Brady, Brees, and Rodgers... lol

 

[pantherclub]

Top 4 WR drafted according to ADP from MFL.com and where they finished weeks 1-16 in a PPR league:

2012

Calvin Johnson - #1 WR

Larry Fitzgerald - #30 WR

Julio Jones - #10 WR

Andre Johnson - #6 WR

2011

Andre Johnson - outside top 30

Calvin Johnson - #2 WR

Roddy White - #3 WR

Larry Fitzgerald - #6 WR

2010

Andre Johnson - #7 WR

Randy Moss - outside top 30

Reggie Wayne - #6 WR

Larry Fitzgerald - #18 WR

2009

Larry Fitzgerald - #6 WR

Andre Johnson - #1 WR

Randy Moss - #5 WR

Calvin Johnson - #24 WR

Yeah, well tough to argue with that. Top WR's are pretty undependable too. Guess we should be drafting Brady, Brees, and Rodgers... lol

Excuse me for a second, but how is that undependable?

 

[SameSongNDance]

It just amazes me how every time I get to rounds 6/7 the RB well is all but dried up but there's WR value galore. VBD dictates that I shouldn't follow the RB run if I'm out of position but I just feel like I'm at a legitimate disadvantage when I need to fill out a position with guys like A.Brown, BGE, Ingram, Tate, Hillman, Ballard, F. Jackson and etc. where as everyone else is filling out their position of need with guys like Shorts, Austin (both), Hilton, Mike Williams, Gordon and etc.

My guess is because in the moment it feels icky, but if you look back at the stark advantage you have at WR despite the "value" they are getting, it won't hurt so much. You have a weakness at RB2, but their WR1 will be worse than yours, as will their WR2 and presumable their WR3.

Oh, and the correct answer there is: Tate, followed by A Brown.

I think I've specifically found my position (1.05) to be very difficult to draft from this year. I often find myself at the tail end of the RB run, starting a small WR run myself on the remaining studs before closing out the 2nd round.

The problem is, I don't believe there's a real discernible difference between RBs 2-8, so I don't feel like there's any real advantage to drafting earlier in the first round. Similarly, I don't believe the disparity between someone like Green and DT is large enough to deem my positioning in the 2nd advantageous either.

 

[Voodoo Rage]

Excuse me for a second, but how is that undependable?

Well, it's not that bad but I'm probably not going to try to argue that Dez, Marshall, and Green are MORE LIKELY to do their projected stats than the RB's we are comparing them to at the turn. In any given group, their is always one outright bust. I'll still argue that the receivers are worth the picks based on sheer potential point production alone but in terms of "reliability", it's probably about the same as the running backs.

 

[mbuehner]

Excuse me for a second, but how is that undependable?

Well, it's not that bad but I'm probably not going to try to argue that Dez, Marshall, and Green are MORE LIKELY to do their projected stats than the RB's we are comparing them to at the turn. In any given group, their is always one outright bust. I'll still argue that the receivers are worth the picks based on sheer potential point production alone but in terms of "reliability", it's probably about the same as the running backs.

Looks to me like 75% of the time the top 4 finished top 10. Now calculate how often RBs 6-10 finish top 10. Think its 75%? Or even 50?Your elite WRs are much more likely to give you top 10 value than your 2nd and 3rd tier RBs, thats not surprising. That WR falloff WR6-10 is probably not apparent- so the 'Ive got my low end RB1 and Victor Cruz only scored X less points less than the top 3WRs, so I should be fine' fallacy comes into play. Youre not discounting the extra risk of the 2nd tier of WRs falling out of WR1 position.

 

[bucsbaby]

Had my draft tonight. It's just your average draft, not a $2500 buy in or anything, so feel free to toss guppies in my general direction. Since there is no buy-in, I didn't "put my money where my mouth is," but I did start WR/WR/WR as I said I would.

12 team PPR, some return yardage points. Start QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, DST, K, 4 bench spots.

Drafted out of the 5 spot.

Started:

1: Calvin

2: Demaryius

3: Andre Johnson

RBs fell to me in the 4th and 6th rounds, whereas there was a significant run on QBs and Gronk/Witten also went, so I deviated and took the RBs who dropped, while picking up a QB where he landed in my VBD range:

4: Sproles (should be top 12 in this league if healthy all year; was top 6 last time he was healthy all year)

5: Luck
6: D Wilson

7: DRich

I'll be platooning Cook and Cameron at TE.

I wanted Gronk at 4 and RG3 at 5, but they didn't fall. If I didn't take Luck at 5, I would've been down into Stafford/Romo territory, which is borderline out of the top-12 if they underperform their adp.

With three projected top-8 WRs, a legit RB1, RB2, and RB3, I'm surprised to find myself in a different position, namely, where I just need to hold serve at QB and TE to be a playoff team.

***In before I'm reminded that no one cares about my fantasy team***

EDIT:

from Dodds' thoughts on Rate My Team:

WR Summary:

Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 11.5 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Calvin Johnson is our #1 ranked receiver, Demaryius Thomas is #4, and we have Andre Johnson seventh.

An 11.5 ppg advantage over an average opponent in the league is a pretty good head start before giving some of that back at the RB position...

 

[We Tigers]

Well, yes, if you're in a scenario where you can get each of your top 3 running backs between 1.5 and 3 rounds later than when they usually go, then going big on receiver does make some sense, doesn't it?

 

[SameSongNDance]

I'd never be able to get Wilson in the 6th, or Richardson in the 7th so your upside down draft is essentially meaningless to me.

Nice team though.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Well, yes, if you're in a scenario where you can get each of your top 3 running backs between 1.5 and 3 rounds later than when they usually go, then going big on receiver does make some sense, doesn't it?

Yeah, that draft just tells me nobody in bucsbaby's league knows what theyre doing - besides bucsbaby. In my draft tonight thats non-PPR, Sproles went in the early 3rd, Wilson went late 3rd, DRich early 5th (who I also would expect to be more valuable in PPR).

That is a very solid team/draft, but hardly what I would expect to come away with in my leagues this year, PPR Id think even less likely.

 

[bucsbaby]

just can never tell how a draft is going to go in advance, unless you've played in the same league for years. I've played with this group for a few years now and I agree that it is not the strongest league, but there are some other teams that are quite strong as well -- kind of a bimodal draft result.



I'd still start the same way even if lesser RBs were available in the mid-rounds and be willing to ride the strength at WR, even if my team wasn't as strong overall as this current one.

 

[Kenny Powers]

From the other side of the spectrum, here's what my RB-RB-RB draft ended up like tonight. 12 teams, non-PPR, start QB/2RB/2WR/TE/2Flex. I had the 7th pick.

QB: Romo, Luck

RB: Rice, CJ2K, Lacy, Vereen, Hillman, Michael

WR: Nelson, DJax, Roberts, Jeffery, Little, Stills

TE: Gronk, Cameron

Im sure the WR/WR people will absolutely hate this team, but I like it for the most part. That said, even I dont like my WRs overall. Really the key thing that changed the look of this team was picking Gronk in the 5th round. Had I not done that, I have Bowe or Garcon as my WR2 and in all likelihood DJax as my WR3. The Graham owner has Andre Brown as his RB2 and the Witten owner has Redman/Tate as his RB2 so that makes me feel better about where I stand at WR.

I got sniped on WRs left and right. It looks like many will be starting 4 WRs in this league based on the 2 flexes as well, which is certainly part of the reason. I was somewhat setting my strategy of going RB early relying on getting Miles Austin, Gordon, Blackmon late but they each went within 2 picks of me in 3 consecutive rounds. Still a little <_< because of that, but I have a lot of trade value at QB.

 

[Man of Zen]

For me it's as simple as this, this year:

If I start Rb-Rb, or even Rb-Rb-Rb, there's literally no way the draft can fall such that I'm shut out of fielding a full team of players I'm perfectly happy with at all positions.

If I start any other way, I have to keep my fingers crossed that a few decent Rb's fall to me.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

SJax at 2.03, CJ at 2.04 - and the kicker - GORE at 2.06.

Gore is listed as a running back on both MFL and ESPN. Not sure about Yahoo!

 

[Biabreakable]

Not going to quote it but that is a lot of fish there bucsbaby.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

most years I have all these sleeper rb late in the draft that I lean on, but this year it looks like garbage after 3 rounds -- really a desert.

 

[infantsam]

I find two formats provide the best balance among the three main positions:

1 QB /2 RB /3 WR with 6 pts per TD pass; or

2 QB /2 RB /3 WR with 4 pts per TD pass.

Both with 0.5 PPR.

I will never again play in a league with the ability to start more than 2 RB. I amazed by how many people underestimate the power of that flex position to grossly overrate the RB position. When Ahmad Bradshaw is getting picked in the same round as Tom Brady, you know there is something wrong with your format. JMHO.

I don't know why the idiots in my league refuse to evolve......

 

[Junior McSpiffy]

From the other side of the spectrum, here's what my RB-RB-RB draft ended up like tonight. 12 teams, non-PPR, start QB/2RB/2WR/TE/2Flex. I had the 7th pick.

QB: Romo, Luck

RB: Rice, CJ2K, Lacy, Vereen, Hillman, Michael

WR: Nelson, DJax, Roberts, Jeffery, Little, Stills

TE: Gronk, Cameron

Im sure the WR/WR people will absolutely hate this team, but I like it for the most part. That said, even I dont like my WRs overall. Really the key thing that changed the look of this team was picking Gronk in the 5th round. Had I not done that, I have Bowe or Garcon as my WR2 and in all likelihood DJax as my WR3. The Graham owner has Andre Brown as his RB2 and the Witten owner has Redman/Tate as his RB2 so that makes me feel better about where I stand at WR.

I got sniped on WRs left and right. It looks like many will be starting 4 WRs in this league based on the 2 flexes as well, which is certainly part of the reason. I was somewhat setting my strategy of going RB early relying on getting Miles Austin, Gordon, Blackmon late but they each went within 2 picks of me in 3 consecutive rounds. Still a little <_< because of that, but I have a lot of trade value at QB.

Two flex positions. I would have gone the same way. The format of the league dictates when you can or can't go WR early. Your league? No chance in purgatory of doing anything but go RB in 2 of the first 3 picks.

 

[Kenny Powers]

From the other side of the spectrum, here's what my RB-RB-RB draft ended up like tonight. 12 teams, non-PPR, start QB/2RB/2WR/TE/2Flex. I had the 7th pick.

QB: Romo, Luck

RB: Rice, CJ2K, Lacy, Vereen, Hillman, Michael

WR: Nelson, DJax, Roberts, Jeffery, Little, Stills

TE: Gronk, Cameron

Im sure the WR/WR people will absolutely hate this team, but I like it for the most part. That said, even I dont like my WRs overall. Really the key thing that changed the look of this team was picking Gronk in the 5th round. Had I not done that, I have Bowe or Garcon as my WR2 and in all likelihood DJax as my WR3. The Graham owner has Andre Brown as his RB2 and the Witten owner has Redman/Tate as his RB2 so that makes me feel better about where I stand at WR.

I got sniped on WRs left and right. It looks like many will be starting 4 WRs in this league based on the 2 flexes as well, which is certainly part of the reason. I was somewhat setting my strategy of going RB early relying on getting Miles Austin, Gordon, Blackmon late but they each went within 2 picks of me in 3 consecutive rounds. Still a little <_< because of that, but I have a lot of trade value at QB.

Two flex positions. I would have gone the same way. The format of the league dictates when you can or can't go WR early. Your league? No chance in purgatory of doing anything but go RB in 2 of the first 3 picks.

Considering you have been hard pressed on the anti-RB line, Im glad to see this post with all things considered

 

[Pumpnick]

I'd never be able to get Wilson in the 6th, or Richardson in the 7th so your upside down draft is essentially meaningless to me.

Nice team though.

Good thing about so many rb being selected is that your wr do not take the hit u might expect. I wound up with aj, Cruz, bowe, s Johnson and if I regret anything it's going rb rb wr instead of rb rb rb , picking aj instead of gore mid 3rd.

 

[Pumpnick]

Off topic a bit , but doing a draft experts league at ffpc is quite fun. No transactions throughout the season really makes every pick, all 26 rounds , strategic and important.

 

[Saint]

14-team non-ppr league last night, 4th pick overall. Went RB-WR-WR, Start 1 Q, 2 RB, 2 WR/TE, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D

1.04: Martin

2.11: Demaryius Thomas

3.04: Andre Johnson

4.11: Daryl Richardson (Best available in the 4th)

5.04: Tony Romo

6.11: Chris Ivory

7.04: Andre Brown

Overall, not too unhappy with the team. If you draft WR early, you need to spend the next 3-4 rounds just grabbing RBs while everyone else is chasing WRs. The nice part though is I have the strongest WR group by far, and with Doug Martin + committee RB2, I'm not in a bad position from RB either. All in all, I agree with some of the earlier posters saying you need to have at least 1 RB in the first 3 rounds.

 

[Short Corner]

I find two formats provide the best balance among the three main positions:

1 QB /2 RB /3 WR with 6 pts per TD pass; or

2 QB /2 RB /3 WR with 4 pts per TD pass.

Both with 0.5 PPR.

I will never again play in a league with the ability to start more than 2 RB. I amazed by how many people underestimate the power of that flex position to grossly overrate the RB position. When Ahmad Bradshaw is getting picked in the same round as Tom Brady, you know there is something wrong with your format. JMHO.

I don't know why the idiots in my league refuse to evolve......

I'd rather jam a fork in my tool than play in a league where you can start 4 RBs and 2 WRs.

 

[hotboyz]

My league 12 team ppr starts 1rb 1 wr 3 flex Rb/wr I think you could very easily and successfully consider going Wr/wr not sure if I will but its a consideration especially at back end of the 1st rd. all Tds 6pts in this kind of league wr and Rb are pretty interchangeable

 

[ImTheScientist]

I'd rather jam a fork in my tool than play in a league where you can start 4 RBs and 2 WRs.

I'd rather jam a fork in my tool than play in a "local league".

 

[pantherclub]

I'd rather jam a fork in my tool than play in a league where you can start 4 RBs and 2 WRs.

I'd rather jam a fork in my tool than play in a "local league".

whats a local league?

 

[Man of Zen]

I'd rather jam a fork in my tool than play in a league where you can start 4 RBs and 2 WRs.

I'd rather jam a fork in my tool than play in a "local league".

whats a local league?

That's where a bunch of espresso-sipping hipsters get together at a Starbucks and argue over who loves Russell Wilson most.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I'd rather jam a fork in my tool than play in a league where you can start 4 RBs and 2 WRs.

I'd rather jam a fork in my tool than play in a "local league".

whats a local league?

If you draft David Wilson in the 6th round of your 12 team league..... you play in a local league. If Aaron Hernadez is actually selected, you play in a local league. If you hold a live draft in someone's backyard.....you play in a local league. Is your league on Yahoo, ESPN, or other free sites? Ya, thats a local league.

FPC, NFFC....pay money, step up and play with the big fish instead of the guppies.

 

[ImTheScientist]

whats a local league?

That's where a bunch of espresso-sipping hipsters get together at a Starbucks and argue over who loves Russell Wilson most.

 

[pantherclub]

If thats the case then I love local leagues

 

[BigDave]

Had my 10 team $$ draft the other night and it's full of sharks.

At #4 I got Martin which I had hoped to get. The rest of the draft RB's went really quick.

In most mocks I was able to get Gore or Bush in the 4th and they went #25

I took Wilson at #37

Miller at #44

Lacy at #57

I got Ball at #84 so he was the only RB I had rated higher that "fell" to me.

I'm satisfied and especially with the recent news on D. Harris on GB and Peyton saying Ball will get a lot of carries.

 

[mbuehner]

From the other side of the spectrum, here's what my RB-RB-RB draft ended up like tonight. 12 teams, non-PPR, start QB/2RB/2WR/TE/2Flex. I had the 7th pick.

QB: Romo, Luck

RB: Rice, CJ2K, Lacy, Vereen, Hillman, Michael

WR: Nelson, DJax, Roberts, Jeffery, Little, Stills

TE: Gronk, Cameron

Im sure the WR/WR people will absolutely hate this team, but I like it for the most part. That said, even I dont like my WRs overall. Really the key thing that changed the look of this team was picking Gronk in the 5th round. Had I not done that, I have Bowe or Garcon as my WR2 and in all likelihood DJax as my WR3. The Graham owner has Andre Brown as his RB2 and the Witten owner has Redman/Tate as his RB2 so that makes me feel better about where I stand at WR.

I got sniped on WRs left and right. It looks like many will be starting 4 WRs in this league based on the 2 flexes as well, which is certainly part of the reason. I was somewhat setting my strategy of going RB early relying on getting Miles Austin, Gordon, Blackmon late but they each went within 2 picks of me in 3 consecutive rounds. Still a little <_< because of that, but I have a lot of trade value at QB.

Two flex positions. I would have gone the same way. The format of the league dictates when you can or can't go WR early. Your league? No chance in purgatory of doing anything but go RB in 2 of the first 3 picks.

Considering you have been hard pressed on the anti-RB line, Im glad to see this post with all things considered

I agree completely. You can flex 2 i'd try to draft every starting RB in the league if i could. But lets recognize thats a very exotic system.

 

[mbuehner]

I'd never be able to get Wilson in the 6th, or Richardson in the 7th so your upside down draft is essentially meaningless to me.

Nice team though.

Good thing about so many rb being selected is that your wr do not take the hit u might expect. I wound up with aj, Cruz, bowe, s Johnson and if I regret anything it's going rb rb wr instead of rb rb rb , picking aj instead of gore mid 3rd.

 

[Dirk Digler]

Poker analogy: On a loose table, you play tight, on a tight table you play loose. On a solid table you play solid.

This minimizes luck, and is +EV everytime.

If your "table" is trending hard one way or the other you exploit it. In most drafts this year, there is a distinct opportunity to exploit the table style.

This happens to some degree every year, and this is why I win year in and year out.

My play on this table is RB, WR, WR, WR (non PPR, I might entertain QB here) (at some point mid way you start doubling down on RB scraps while the 'chasers' are trending towards filling out the WR positions they neglected.

JMHO.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I had a draft last night in a league with really odd rosters, don't know if this helps, but :

10 teams, PPR, all TDs 6, start 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 FLEX (RB/WR/TE), 1 SUPERFLEX (QB/RB/WR/TE), 1 K, 1 DEF

I was drafting #8 and expected a mad dash on QBs, given you can theoretically start 3 of them each week. Still, the first 7 picks were all RBs. At that point, I decided to draft upside-down. No one really followed. Team ended up being :

QB - A. Rodgers, M. Ryan, A. Luck, EJ Manuel

RB - D. Wilson, L. Miller, R. Mathews, D. McFadden, S. Vereen, R. Hillman

WR - Calvin Johnson, D. Thomas, V. Jackson, K. Britt, J. Gordon, Kenbrell Thompkins

TE - J. Finley, H. Miller (20th round homer pick)

K - Bullock

DEF - Chicago

My backfield kind of sucks, but after the run in rounds 1-3, people kind of stopped taking backs after that and I was able to get 5 of those 6 guys between rounds 5-11. Hillman lasted until the 14th (?) I probably have the worst backfield in the league, but considering I only HAVE to start 2, I'm hoping I can hit on half of these guys and/or cobble together a halfway respectable starting duo and hope my advantages at QB and WR can override that.

 

[mbuehner]

How do you get Rodgers, Ryan, and Luck, AND Calvin in a 2QB, 6pt league? Did anybody else draft in the first round?

 

[Junior McSpiffy]

From the other side of the spectrum, here's what my RB-RB-RB draft ended up like tonight. 12 teams, non-PPR, start QB/2RB/2WR/TE/2Flex. I had the 7th pick.

QB: Romo, Luck

RB: Rice, CJ2K, Lacy, Vereen, Hillman, Michael

WR: Nelson, DJax, Roberts, Jeffery, Little, Stills

TE: Gronk, Cameron

Im sure the WR/WR people will absolutely hate this team, but I like it for the most part. That said, even I dont like my WRs overall. Really the key thing that changed the look of this team was picking Gronk in the 5th round. Had I not done that, I have Bowe or Garcon as my WR2 and in all likelihood DJax as my WR3. The Graham owner has Andre Brown as his RB2 and the Witten owner has Redman/Tate as his RB2 so that makes me feel better about where I stand at WR.

I got sniped on WRs left and right. It looks like many will be starting 4 WRs in this league based on the 2 flexes as well, which is certainly part of the reason. I was somewhat setting my strategy of going RB early relying on getting Miles Austin, Gordon, Blackmon late but they each went within 2 picks of me in 3 consecutive rounds. Still a little <_< because of that, but I have a lot of trade value at QB.

Two flex positions. I would have gone the same way. The format of the league dictates when you can or can't go WR early. Your league? No chance in purgatory of doing anything but go RB in 2 of the first 3 picks.

Considering you have been hard pressed on the anti-RB line, Im glad to see this post with all things considered

So let me spell out my league and see if you think a start of no RB until round 3 is viable:

1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1 K 1 DEF

And arcane, archaic scoring. Can't get these guys to budge on it. No PPR, no points for yardage except for milestones (5 for 100, 7 for 125, 10 for 150, 25 for 200), and more points for longer TDs (1-9=6 points, 10-39=9 points and 40+=12 points with QBs going 5/7/9 for same distance TDs).

With that set-up, can you see it being more viable to go for WRs (who are more likely to get bonus points from long TDs than RBs are) in the first two rounds? (And yes, it all depends who is hanging around. If I'm at eleven and Arian Foster drops that far the way I'm reading is happening in some drafts, I take Foster and celebrate.)

 

[Junior McSpiffy]

I'd rather jam a fork in my tool than play in a league where you can start 4 RBs and 2 WRs.

I'd rather jam a fork in my tool than play in a "local league".

My "local league" is the reason I still play. Yes, I play in a shark league as well, but if all I'm doing is playing "Whose got the best spreadsheet?" with a bunch of strangers, what musters the care within me? But when the league devolves to the point where someone in the league sends out McDonalds coupon books to everyone so they can go and enjoy a LlamaBurger (as in the Mud Lake Rabbits are gonna destroy the Lorenzo Llamas), that keeps me interested.

Remember back when people were more than something you'd exploit for your own personal enjoyment? Yeah... good times...

EDIT: In fact, the local league means so much to me, the only time I've missed the draft in 18 years was to attend the birth of my assistant coach. When I lived in Denver, I would drive 11 hours every year so I could be there live. This year, I'm stealing the assistant coach from my wife and taking her so I can show off her team gear.

 

[cvnpoka]

You're assuming DRich and Mendenhall won't hold up -- who's to say they won't??? It's not like DRich is an injury risk and he's CLEARLY outplayed the other two guys on the roster. I like him to outplay his adp by a significant amount. Mendenhall is the definition of unsexy RB2. Sure, there is some injury risk there, but he could outlast someone like Foster drafted in the top of the 1st, who is also an injury risk. Mendenhall is the clear bellcow on his team and should have an improved offense with Carson Palmer at the helm.

If that guy's RBs hold serve, his strength at his other positions could easily carry him into the playoffs.

I'd REALLY like to see someone post VBD numbers to support their position that chasing the round 2-3 RBs is a better decision than taking the round 2-3 WRs.

mendenhall has been having problems with his knee all offseason. already missing practice and having mri is not a good sign for lasting all year.

drich may not have injury concerns, but he def has effectiveness concerns. hes in a time share in what has been an awful offense the last few years.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

How do you get Rodgers, Ryan, and Luck, AND Calvin in a 2QB, 6pt league? Did anybody else draft in the first round?

Calvin fell to 1.8, Rodgers was the second QB off the board at 2.3. I got Ryan at 4.3 and Luck (QB #13 - someone drafted Eli ahead of him) at the 7.8. I was a little surprised QBs didn't go even faster - I almost drafted Brees/Rodgers at 1.8 and 2.3 and probably would have if Calvin wasn't still there. I was shocked to see Demaryius still around at 3.8 and VJax at 6.3 as well. Wilson was my first RB chosen at 5.8 and I spent 5 of my 7 picks between 5th-11th on my ghastly RB unit.

 

[Junior McSpiffy]

You're assuming DRich and Mendenhall won't hold up -- who's to say they won't??? It's not like DRich is an injury risk and he's CLEARLY outplayed the other two guys on the roster. I like him to outplay his adp by a significant amount. Mendenhall is the definition of unsexy RB2. Sure, there is some injury risk there, but he could outlast someone like Foster drafted in the top of the 1st, who is also an injury risk. Mendenhall is the clear bellcow on his team and should have an improved offense with Carson Palmer at the helm.

If that guy's RBs hold serve, his strength at his other positions could easily carry him into the playoffs.

I'd REALLY like to see someone post VBD numbers to support their position that chasing the round 2-3 RBs is a better decision than taking the round 2-3 WRs.

mendenhall has been having problems with his knee all offseason. already missing practice and having mri is not a good sign for lasting all year.

drich may not have injury concerns, but he def has effectiveness concerns. hes in a time share in what has been an awful offense the last few years.

With DRich, the concern isn't the timeshare (there -should- be a timeshare, but Pead and Stacy have not played well enough to get into part of it) or the awful offense of the past (wildly retooled). The problem with DRich is that the offense seems committed to neglecting the run this year. If he gets used as a receiver out of the backfield, then he'll still have good value.

 

[Warrior]

I'd rather jam a fork in my tool than play in a league where you can start 4 RBs and 2 WRs.

I'd rather jam a fork in my tool than play in a "local league".

whats a local league?

If you draft David Wilson in the 6th round of your 12 team league..... you play in a local league. If Aaron Hernadez is actually selected, you play in a local league. If you hold a live draft in someone's backyard.....you play in a local league. Is your league on Yahoo, ESPN, or other free sites? Ya, thats a local league.

FPC, NFFC....pay money, step up and play with the big fish instead of the guppies.

Yes, because 30% of the prize pool being skimmed off the top = 'expert league'



I'll continue to rake it in against expert competition using free software.

 

[mbuehner]

How do you get Rodgers, Ryan, and Luck, AND Calvin in a 2QB, 6pt league? Did anybody else draft in the first round?

Calvin fell to 1.8, Rodgers was the second QB off the board at 2.3. I got Ryan at 4.3 and Luck (QB #13 - someone drafted Eli ahead of him) at the 7.8. I was a little surprised QBs didn't go even faster - I almost drafted Brees/Rodgers at 1.8 and 2.3 and probably would have if Calvin wasn't still there. I was shocked to see Demaryius still around at 3.8 and VJax at 6.3 as well. Wilson was my first RB chosen at 5.8 and I spent 5 of my 7 picks between 5th-11th on my ghastly RB unit.

Who care about rbs? You can start all three of your QBs and theyre all top 10. Not to mention Calvin and DT. You should run away with this league and never look back. Well done.

 

[SameSongNDance]

People really need to hold back from posting draft recaps in which their entire team "fell" to them. I appreciate the anecdotal evidence to an extent, but seriously, if your entire league ignored ADP the info is essentially valueless as it pertains to this discussion.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

People really need to hold back from posting draft recaps in which their entire team "fell" to them. I appreciate the anecdotal evidence to an extent, but seriously, if your entire league ignored ADP the info is essentially valueless as it pertains to this discussion.

Point was - RBs flew off the board early and then there was a long break in which everyone was scrambling to pick up WRs/QBs. I went against the tide and wanted to share the results as the upside-down strategy was being discussed earlier. I don't think it varied too much from ADP except that based on the roster structure, QBs went earlier than usual (but not early enough IMO) and there was a lot of chasing in the mid-rounds, the RB march didn't continue as it has in some other leagues.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

How do you get Rodgers, Ryan, and Luck, AND Calvin in a 2QB, 6pt league? Did anybody else draft in the first round?

Calvin fell to 1.8, Rodgers was the second QB off the board at 2.3. I got Ryan at 4.3 and Luck (QB #13 - someone drafted Eli ahead of him) at the 7.8. I was a little surprised QBs didn't go even faster - I almost drafted Brees/Rodgers at 1.8 and 2.3 and probably would have if Calvin wasn't still there. I was shocked to see Demaryius still around at 3.8 and VJax at 6.3 as well. Wilson was my first RB chosen at 5.8 and I spent 5 of my 7 picks between 5th-11th on my ghastly RB unit.

Who care about rbs? You can start all three of your QBs and theyre all top 10. Not to mention Calvin and DT. You should run away with this league and never look back. Well done.

Thanks man - from your lips to Zod's ears.

 

[Judge Smails]

It just amazes me how every time I get to rounds 6/7 the RB well is all but dried up but there's WR value galore. VBD dictates that I shouldn't follow the RB run if I'm out of position but I just feel like I'm at a legitimate disadvantage when I need to fill out a position with guys like A.Brown, BGE, Ingram, Tate, Hillman, Ballard, F. Jackson and etc. where as everyone else is filling out their position of need with guys like Shorts, Austin (both), Hilton, Mike Williams, Gordon and etc.

This is exactly the reality. Everyone above this tier, the David Wilson's and Eddie Lacy's of the world, are going early now. Won't make it out of round 3 in 12 team leagues. All the question marks (McFadden, Murray, etc) are gone then too, MAYBE first few picks of the 4th. So the guys you mentioned are exactly what's left. RBBC types or guys needing injury to make a significant contribution. All of the WR's you mentioned were available in rounds 7 on (though Hilton has so much press he might have gone a tad earlier). WR3's/4's are easy to fill. With quality guys.

 

[SameSongNDance]

People really need to hold back from posting draft recaps in which their entire team "fell" to them. I appreciate the anecdotal evidence to an extent, but seriously, if your entire league ignored ADP the info is essentially valueless as it pertains to this discussion.

Point was - RBs flew off the board early and then there was a long break in which everyone was scrambling to pick up WRs/QBs. I went against the tide and wanted to share the results as the upside-down strategy was being discussed earlier. I don't think it varied too much from ADP except that based on the roster structure, QBs went earlier than usual (but not early enough IMO) and there was a lot of chasing in the mid-rounds, the RB march didn't continue as it has in some other leagues.

It's not just you, I'm not trying to single you out. I just think some of these draft recaps ultimately serve to confuse people.

As for you're league, the fact that the QB run didn't start early and last long is perplexing. Rodgers at 2.03 is absurd as he should be taken between 1.01-1.03. Ryan in the 4th round is similarly absurd, he should have been taken in the first round. It doesn't seem to me that QBs went "earlier than usual" at all.