Running backs - get 'em. Trust me. (1 Viewer)

[Junior McSpiffy]

QB and WR are really deep this season.

That is why RB value soared, not necessarily Rb scarcity, but plenty (more than 12) of good QB options in 1 x QB leagues and tons of WR.

Depth =/= quality depth. There's Megatron, there's a pool of four or five WRs who are next... and then there's soup. Yeah, there's a LOT of soup, but it's still soup. You can get a WR in the fourth round who you wouldn't be ashamed to have as your WR1, but he could also perform like a WR3.

Because it's soup.

Everyone is celebrating the fact that their WR3 can possibly play like a WR1, but that means your WR1 could be a WR3.

Because it's soup.

If you want to avoid soup, you have to get one of the top four or five guys. And if you get two of the top four or five guys, then so much the better. Because the RB "depth" is a lot like the WR depth. After the top five or so guys (and who that is will vary from person to person), you are getting people who could all be taken at the back end of th first round and nobody would really raise too much of an eyebrow.

Because it's soup.

If you want your team to be the same as everyone else's team but act like it's different because you like a different flavor of soup than your neighbor, have at it. I am most likely gonna go self-Soup-Nazi. Say it with me now....

"NO SOUP FOR ME!"

 

[BigJim®]

QB and WR are really deep this season.

That is why RB value soared, not necessarily Rb scarcity, but plenty (more than 12) of good QB options in 1 x QB leagues and tons of WR.

Depth =/= quality depth. There's Megatron, there's a pool of four or five WRs who are next... and then there's soup. Yeah, there's a LOT of soup, but it's still soup. You can get a WR in the fourth round who you wouldn't be ashamed to have as your WR1, but he could also perform like a WR3.

Because it's soup.

Everyone is celebrating the fact that their WR3 can possibly play like a WR1, but that means your WR1 could be a WR3.

Because it's soup.

If you want to avoid soup, you have to get one of the top four or five guys. And if you get two of the top four or five guys, then so much the better. Because the RB "depth" is a lot like the WR depth. After the top five or so guys (and who that is will vary from person to person), you are getting people who could all be taken at the back end of th first round and nobody would really raise too much of an eyebrow.

Because it's soup.

If you want your team to be the same as everyone else's team but act like it's different because you like a different flavor of soup than your neighbor, have at it. I am most likely gonna go self-Soup-Nazi. Say it with me now....

"NO SOUP FOR ME!"

It's not clear to me from your post when you propose guys take their first RB. I can accept holding off to the 3rd, but some of the discussion has been to hold off way too long to take RB. Sticking to your theme, the prospect of starting Ivory/Ballard for 16 weeks isn't 'soup.' It's a hail mary IMHO. Higher ceiling, maybe. Bigger downside, certainly.

 

[meyerj31]

QB and WR are really deep this season.

That is why RB value soared, not necessarily Rb scarcity, but plenty (more than 12) of good QB options in 1 x QB leagues and tons of WR.

Depth =/= quality depth. There's Megatron, there's a pool of four or five WRs who are next... and then there's soup. Yeah, there's a LOT of soup, but it's still soup. You can get a WR in the fourth round who you wouldn't be ashamed to have as your WR1, but he could also perform like a WR3.

Because it's soup.

Everyone is celebrating the fact that their WR3 can possibly play like a WR1, but that means your WR1 could be a WR3.

Because it's soup.

If you want to avoid soup, you have to get one of the top four or five guys. And if you get two of the top four or five guys, then so much the better. Because the RB "depth" is a lot like the WR depth. After the top five or so guys (and who that is will vary from person to person), you are getting people who could all be taken at the back end of th first round and nobody would really raise too much of an eyebrow.

Because it's soup.

If you want your team to be the same as everyone else's team but act like it's different because you like a different flavor of soup than your neighbor, have at it. I am most likely gonna go self-Soup-Nazi. Say it with me now....

"NO SOUP FOR ME!"

It's not clear to me from your post when you propose guys take their first RB. I can accept holding off to the 3rd, but some of the discussion has been to hold off way too long to take RB. Sticking to your theme, the prospect of starting Ivory/Ballard for 16 weeks isn't 'soup.' It's a hail mary IMHO. Higher ceiling, maybe. Bigger downside, certainly.

The soup analogy probably sounded great in his head before he wrote it, but I don't see how that translates to drafting differently than most ADP lists for the first 20 or so. Taking one of the 4-5 top WRs really depends on who falls to you. If he's saying take a top WR instead of a solid 2nd RB, then OK, but he needs to be more explicit how his analogy translates.

 

[mbuehner]

QB and WR are really deep this season.

That is why RB value soared, not necessarily Rb scarcity, but plenty (more than 12) of good QB options in 1 x QB leagues and tons of WR.

Depth =/= quality depth. There's Megatron, there's a pool of four or five WRs who are next... and then there's soup. Yeah, there's a LOT of soup, but it's still soup. You can get a WR in the fourth round who you wouldn't be ashamed to have as your WR1, but he could also perform like a WR3.

Because it's soup.

Everyone is celebrating the fact that their WR3 can possibly play like a WR1, but that means your WR1 could be a WR3.

Because it's soup.

If you want to avoid soup, you have to get one of the top four or five guys. And if you get two of the top four or five guys, then so much the better. Because the RB "depth" is a lot like the WR depth. After the top five or so guys (and who that is will vary from person to person), you are getting people who could all be taken at the back end of th first round and nobody would really raise too much of an eyebrow.

Because it's soup.

If you want your team to be the same as everyone else's team but act like it's different because you like a different flavor of soup than your neighbor, have at it. I am most likely gonna go self-Soup-Nazi. Say it with me now....

"NO SOUP FOR ME!"

It's not clear to me from your post when you propose guys take their first RB. I can accept holding off to the 3rd, but some of the discussion has been to hold off way too long to take RB. Sticking to your theme, the prospect of starting Ivory/Ballard for 16 weeks isn't 'soup.' It's a hail mary IMHO. Higher ceiling, maybe. Bigger downside, certainly.

Agreed- the options aren't Draft 'traditional' RB heavy, or draft upside down. I intensely dislike getting caught up in a run on RBs (unless im leading it), but I wouldnt got 3 rounds without a RB at all, under almost any circumstance. I think the BARE minimum is 1 rb by the 3rd, and you better get 2 elite players in the 1st two rounds even so (not just really good players).

 

[bucsbaby]

No soup for me

 

[ponchsox]

It just seems like teams who are taking a stud WR in the second are screwing themselves out of a good RB like Forte or CJ2K. Since RBs are being grabbed up early, you can still get a WR like Andre Johnson in the 4th round.

Would you rather have AJ Green and Lamar Miller or Matt Forte and Andre Johnson?

 

[We Tigers]

Assumptions: PPR, start 2RB, start 3WR, no Flex, using current aggregate PPR ADP data from fantasypros, trying to select RB/WR positions from approx. middle of each round

Q: Which has more projected VBD?

Team 1:

Round 1: RB6

Round 2: RB12

Round 3: RB18

Round 4: WR15

Round 5: WR21

Round 6: WR25

Team 2:

Round 1: WR1

Round 2: WR5

Round 3: WR9

Round 4: RB23

Round 5: RB26

Round 6: RB29

A:?

prob with this is rb 29 went in the 4th round and wr 25 the 7th

It's not a problem at all, actually.If the run on RBs is even more pronounced than aggregate ADP would indicate, it just means that there is even more pronounced value at other positions.

But it *is* a problem. It's similar to what happens if you sit back and wait too long in an auction draft. Yes, it's good to save some money so you can scoop up values in the middle and end of the draft, but at a certain point you have to spend it. There's a finite number of players to select, particularly in the higher tiers, not an infinite pool where you can maximize "value" regardless of conditions. If you let all the top RBs and top WRs and top TEs go off the board because they're all going for 10% more than you want to pay, good luck in 1) spending all your budget, and 2) having enough starter production to compete.To take it back to redraft, say you draft Brees in the 2nd. Nice pick. And yet when you get to the 6th round, somehow Cam Newton is still sitting there. You don't draft Cam, though, because although he presents obvious value there's an opportunity cost in not taking someone at a position you actually need. So you draft Cecil Shorts and move on.

At a certain point, the opportunity cost of not taking RBs early is going to catch up with you. A good draft isn't always about avoiding runs; it's also about figuring out which runs you need to join before the value of "value" becomes terminal.

No, it's *NOT* a problem -- you are misrepresenting my position and making a straw man. I never said to pass on the top WR and top TE talent. I said to scoop them up. It's NOT an auction and while people are chasing for RBs in the teens and 20s, I am scooping up top 10 WRs and a top 3 TE and adding significantly more VBD than I will give away when I am taking RBs in the 30s. Sure, if you wait until the RB 30s tier is gone, you're screwed, so if 30+ RBs go in the first 3 rounds, you're going to have to take RBs in the 3rd and 4th. However, the aggregate ADP data I posted suggests that, typically, the RB run tapers off after the 3rd round and the RB 30s tier is still available.

I'm not arguing against a straw man. The auction reference was, as clearly stated, another way of thinking about this concept.

You said that if RB29 goes in round 4 instead of round six, it's good because you've been getting more value at WR. I would argue the marginal improvement you get in "value"/VBD from getting to take, say, WR12 in round 4 instead of WR16, is not worth the drop off you'll face at RB.

VBD is great, but I think you have to use it with caution when you start getting into the 25th-30th RB available. We're into last-starters territory there, which is a sign to jump on board if you aren't already covered. While RB36 may have a particular theoretical end of year value, VBD has very little predictive value once you're outside starting running backs. The winners from 30 on down will be assembled based on injuries to the first 30. VBD breaks down if you're counting on Bryce Brown and Ben Tate, for example, to perform as RB33 and 34.

 

[Voodoo Rage]

It just seems like teams who are taking a stud WR in the second are screwing themselves out of a good RB like Forte or CK2K. Since RBs are being grabbed up early, you can still get a WR like Andre Johnson in the 4th round.

Would you rather have AJ Green and Lamar Miller or Matt Forte and Andre Johnson?

Depending on if PPR or not, it's kind of a wash. AJ Green scored about 2 more points a week than Andre Johnson last year and Matt Forte scored about 2 more ponts a week than a lower end RB (like a Michael Turner or Stephen Jackson last year). I just don't see Forte having any higher ceiling than he has now based on his lack of goal line work while I can definitely see a Lamar Miller (or a David Wilson, DeMarco Murray, etc... pick your flavor) outperforming their draft spot. I also think Andre Johnson is probably stuck about where he is now based on that offense.

Again, Forte/Andre Johnson is sort of the "safe combo". I honestly think you are just playing to keep up by doing that. Going AJ Green and then rolling your dice to get un upside RB from your bench who might match or even exceed Matt Forte is a chancier move that might win you a league.

 

[bucsbaby]

It just seems like teams who are taking a stud WR in the second are screwing themselves out of a good RB like Forte or CK2K. Since RBs are being grabbed up early, you can still get a WR like Andre Johnson in the 4th round.

Would you rather have AJ Green and Lamar Miller or Matt Forte and Andre Johnson?

Neither, I'll have my 3 WRs by round 4

 

[bucsbaby]

Assumptions: PPR, start 2RB, start 3WR, no Flex, using current aggregate PPR ADP data from fantasypros, trying to select RB/WR positions from approx. middle of each round

Q: Which has more projected VBD?

Team 1:

Round 1: RB6

Round 2: RB12

Round 3: RB18

Round 4: WR15

Round 5: WR21

Round 6: WR25

Team 2:

Round 1: WR1

Round 2: WR5

Round 3: WR9

Round 4: RB23

Round 5: RB26

Round 6: RB29

A:?

prob with this is rb 29 went in the 4th round and wr 25 the 7th

It's not a problem at all, actually.If the run on RBs is even more pronounced than aggregate ADP would indicate, it just means that there is even more pronounced value at other positions.

But it *is* a problem. It's similar to what happens if you sit back and wait too long in an auction draft. Yes, it's good to save some money so you can scoop up values in the middle and end of the draft, but at a certain point you have to spend it. There's a finite number of players to select, particularly in the higher tiers, not an infinite pool where you can maximize "value" regardless of conditions. If you let all the top RBs and top WRs and top TEs go off the board because they're all going for 10% more than you want to pay, good luck in 1) spending all your budget, and 2) having enough starter production to compete.To take it back to redraft, say you draft Brees in the 2nd. Nice pick. And yet when you get to the 6th round, somehow Cam Newton is still sitting there. You don't draft Cam, though, because although he presents obvious value there's an opportunity cost in not taking someone at a position you actually need. So you draft Cecil Shorts and move on.

At a certain point, the opportunity cost of not taking RBs early is going to catch up with you. A good draft isn't always about avoiding runs; it's also about figuring out which runs you need to join before the value of "value" becomes terminal.

No, it's *NOT* a problem -- you are misrepresenting my position and making a straw man. I never said to pass on the top WR and top TE talent. I said to scoop them up. It's NOT an auction and while people are chasing for RBs in the teens and 20s, I am scooping up top 10 WRs and a top 3 TE and adding significantly more VBD than I will give away when I am taking RBs in the 30s. Sure, if you wait until the RB 30s tier is gone, you're screwed, so if 30+ RBs go in the first 3 rounds, you're going to have to take RBs in the 3rd and 4th. However, the aggregate ADP data I posted suggests that, typically, the RB run tapers off after the 3rd round and the RB 30s tier is still available.

I'm not arguing against a straw man. The auction reference was, as clearly stated, another way of thinking about this concept.

You said that if RB29 goes in round 4 instead of round six, it's good because you've been getting more value at WR. I would argue the marginal improvement you get in "value"/VBD from getting to take, say, WR12 in round 4 instead of WR16, is not worth the drop off you'll face at RB.

VBD is great, but I think you have to use it with caution when you start getting into the 25th-30th RB available. We're into last-starters territory there, which is a sign to jump on board if you aren't already covered. While RB36 may have a particular theoretical end of year value, VBD has very little predictive value once you're outside starting running backs. The winners from 30 on down will be assembled based on injuries to the first 30. VBD breaks down if you're counting on Bryce Brown and Ben Tate, for example, to perform as RB33 and 34.

potato potahto let's see some numbers

 

[We Tigers]

I just said why I don't trust/value VBD for RBs once you get past the starting running backs for their NFL teams. At that juncture, it's only theory. I don't know what numbers you want to see when I'm telling you that I believe the numbers see a major decline in relevance after a certain threshold.

 

[Chaka]

It just seems like teams who are taking a stud WR in the second are screwing themselves out of a good RB like Forte or CK2K. Since RBs are being grabbed up early, you can still get a WR like Andre Johnson in the 4th round.

Would you rather have AJ Green and Lamar Miller or Matt Forte and Andre Johnson?

I am not sure I pull the trigger on it but I could see it.

AJ Green might score more TDs than Forte and Johnson combined. Neither of those two have ever demonstrated a nose for the end zone and Forte has one of the best TD vultures in the league lining up behind him.

 

[Chaka]

It's funny but IMO the pool of QBs and WRs seem shallower and RBs seem much deeper than in the past few seasons.

 

[(HULK)]

Okay, I'll do some numbers for you. In a league that I have a draft for tomorrow night, using FBG's projections, and their latest ADP #s, here is what it looks like for me picking @ 11:

1.11: Either Alfred Morris if I go RB or Dez Bryant if I go WR

2.2: Either Chris Johnson RB or AJ Green WR (his ADP is 2.1, but I'll let it slide)

3.11: Either Lamar Miller RB (wouldn't be my choice but these aren't my projections) or Dwayne Bowe WR

4.2: Either Eddie Lacy RB or Colston WR

5.11: Either Ryan Mathews RB or Antonio Brown WR

Now, I did this in the FBG's excel spreadsheet and it gives you a nice little "value" printout for each player on the right.

Morris = 116

Dez = 74

CJ2K = 98

AJ = 72

Lamar = 61

Bowe = 33

Lacy = 57

Colston = 23

Mathews = 40

Brown = 17

At each point, the RB is worth more than the WR.

If you drafted Alfred, CJ2K, Lamar, Colston, Brown you get 315 points of "value".

If you drafted Dez, AJ, Bowe, Lacy, Mathews you get 276 points of "value".

The reason for this is simple. There are 10 legit RB1s. Maybe about 6 to 8 RB2s that aren't a total wildcard. Beyond that, there is nothing except insane longshots. Meanwhile, there is 1 top WR, followed by 6 to 8 elite WRs, followed by a tremendously huge tier of WR2s. You can get people very late like Josh Gordon and Justin Blackmon and I have just as much confidence in them as I do in Bowe or Brown.

It makes nothing but sense to draft RB heavy up top this year.

 

[Junior McSpiffy]

QB and WR are really deep this season.

That is why RB value soared, not necessarily Rb scarcity, but plenty (more than 12) of good QB options in 1 x QB leagues and tons of WR.

Depth =/= quality depth. There's Megatron, there's a pool of four or five WRs who are next... and then there's soup. Yeah, there's a LOT of soup, but it's still soup. You can get a WR in the fourth round who you wouldn't be ashamed to have as your WR1, but he could also perform like a WR3.

Because it's soup.

Everyone is celebrating the fact that their WR3 can possibly play like a WR1, but that means your WR1 could be a WR3.

Because it's soup.

If you want to avoid soup, you have to get one of the top four or five guys. And if you get two of the top four or five guys, then so much the better. Because the RB "depth" is a lot like the WR depth. After the top five or so guys (and who that is will vary from person to person), you are getting people who could all be taken at the back end of th first round and nobody would really raise too much of an eyebrow.

Because it's soup.

If you want your team to be the same as everyone else's team but act like it's different because you like a different flavor of soup than your neighbor, have at it. I am most likely gonna go self-Soup-Nazi. Say it with me now....

"NO SOUP FOR ME!"

It's not clear to me from your post when you propose guys take their first RB. I can accept holding off to the 3rd, but some of the discussion has been to hold off way too long to take RB. Sticking to your theme, the prospect of starting Ivory/Ballard for 16 weeks isn't 'soup.' It's a hail mary IMHO. Higher ceiling, maybe. Bigger downside, certainly.

Agreed- the options aren't Draft 'traditional' RB heavy, or draft upside down. I intensely dislike getting caught up in a run on RBs (unless im leading it), but I wouldnt got 3 rounds without a RB at all, under almost any circumstance. I think the BARE minimum is 1 rb by the 3rd, and you better get 2 elite players in the 1st two rounds even so (not just really good players).

I'm not saying to completely abandon RBs. But if I am at the back end of the draft and the 5 RBs I like are gone, I see going WR/WR easily. But if that happens, then yes, I'm investing picks 3 and 4 (and maybe even 5) in RBs. I get a lot of mocks that look like:

1.11 AJ Green

2.2 Julio Jones (I admit... I like him more than most. Go Dez/Green if that suits you better)

3.11 and 4.2 Lamar Miller, Darren Sproles, Gio Bernard... even got David Wilson on a rare occasion. But some mix of these two are usually there for me. If not these, then someone comparable.

My point in all this is that the tier of backs going at the end of the third isn't so far separated from the ones going in the mid-second as people make it out to be, and the depth at WR may mean there's a lot to choose from, but there's not a lot to distinguish any of them compared to the top five WRs or so. So why stock up on bottled water because of a Y2RB scare? Tons of guys who are the same does not equate to difference-makers. Difference-makers are difference-makers, and if they are on the board, I'm taking them, regardless of position.

Now I admit, my league is fairly archaic... 2 RB, 3 WR no flex. If there's flex involved, I would think you'd have to go RB earlier just because the RB run would be even more pronounced and 3.11 and 4.2 look more like 4.11 and 5.2.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

If you drafted Alfred, CJ2K, Lamar, Colston, Brown you get 315 points of "value".

If you drafted Dez, AJ, Bowe, Lacy, Mathews you get 276 points of "value".

The reason for this is simple. There are 10 legit RB1s. Maybe about 6 to 8 RB2s that aren't a total wildcard. Beyond that, there is nothing except insane longshots. Meanwhile, there is 1 top WR, followed by 6 to 8 elite WRs, followed by a tremendously huge tier of WR2s. You can get people very late like Josh Gordon and Justin Blackmon and I have just as much confidence in them as I do in Bowe or Brown.

It makes nothing but sense to draft RB heavy up top this year.

Even if your conclusion followed from your example - and it doesn't, because there's a world of choices in between starting RB/RB/RB vs. WR/WR/WR - the debate from the OP's question was more along the lines of "do you need to follow the herd if everyone else is grabbing RBs"?

So FBG's ADP doesn't do a whole lot of good in that context. Let's say you take AlMo at 1.11 after nine RB's plus Calvin went off the board ahead of you. Now the guy at the turn grabs Forte and CJ. Do you take Steven Jackson over Dez or AJ Green?

Now you're back on the clock at 3.11. Miller and Lacy are long gone. Are you reaching for D-Mac or Sproles there? Over someone like Manning or Demaryius Thomas? Now where's the value?

If you're in a non-PPR league with a flex lineup where you can start 3 RBs, I can, maybe, make a case for the former. But following the herd over the cliff by taking RB21 over WR5 because, well, everyone else is, is generally a one-way ticket to mediocrity.

 

[SameSongNDance]

It just seems like teams who are taking a stud WR in the second are screwing themselves out of a good RB like Forte or CK2K. Since RBs are being grabbed up early, you can still get a WR like Andre Johnson in the 4th round.

Would you rather have AJ Green and Lamar Miller or Matt Forte and Andre Johnson?

You might have no choice in the matter. You may be stuck at the tail end of the run (mid/late 2nd round) staring down stud WRs and slightly underwhelming RBs. If I had a choice, I'd be taking Forte/CJ2K as my RB2 every time.

 

[3 hour lunch]

Good thread. I really see both sides of the coin here. I think a lot of it depends on if its 10-man or 12-man, PPR or non-PPR, etc. I have #7 tonight in a 10 team, non-PPR. Based on what others have been saying, it looks like I'll have my pick between Calvin and Trent. I feel like there's enough talent at RB at the 3/4 turn, especially, that I can afford to go Calvin. Yes, there are tons of WR2s out there, but only one Calvin. But again, it feels like Calvin/Forte (for example) is almost a wash with Trent/Dez? But, would it be crazy to go Calvin/Dez in non-PPR? Sounds exciting, but it might be a stretch? Again, I could piece together a decent RB core with picks 3-6 while still being able to grab the Britt's of the world in round 7 and beyond. But, the upside is minized due to the scoring system. Hmmmm

 

[Kuz]

Our big money league is very competitive. No guppies. 15+ years playing for a 6K+ pot.

If you look around the room and cannot spot the guppy.........

getting caught up in a RB run in the first and second run is the ultimate guppy play

Whatever dude. Cashed for $3200 as SuperBowl champion last year. Not your $20 Yahoo League. Think what you want. My first 3 picks were Morris (I thought he was in the same tier after ADP, loved him, not a reach at all) AJ Green, Victor Cruz. So how did I follow the runs again?

Alfred Morris? In the first? Last year? Sorry man, I approve of the bravado, but this just isn't true.

Even in drafts pushing Labor Day, he was going in the 130's.

I think you misunderstood him. . I'm guessing those are his 1st 3 picks this year..

 

[ponchsox]

Good thread. I really see both sides of the coin here. I think a lot of it depends on if its 10-man or 12-man, PPR or non-PPR, etc. I have #7 tonight in a 10 team, non-PPR. Based on what others have been saying, it looks like I'll have my pick between Calvin and Trent. I feel like there's enough talent at RB at the 3/4 turn, especially, that I can afford to go Calvin. Yes, there are tons of WR2s out there, but only one Calvin. But again, it feels like Calvin/Forte (for example) is almost a wash with Trent/Dez? But, would it be crazy to go Calvin/Dez in non-PPR? Sounds exciting, but it might be a stretch? Again, I could piece together a decent RB core with picks 3-6 while still being able to grab the Britt's of the world in round 7 and beyond. But, the upside is minized due to the scoring system. Hmmmm

But what if there's a big run and you're stuck with the likes of Darren McFadden as your #1 RB? That seems very risky to me. If you happen to get lucky and land Lacy and or Wilson this might pay off.

 

[Junior McSpiffy]

Good thread. I really see both sides of the coin here. I think a lot of it depends on if its 10-man or 12-man, PPR or non-PPR, etc. I have #7 tonight in a 10 team, non-PPR. Based on what others have been saying, it looks like I'll have my pick between Calvin and Trent. I feel like there's enough talent at RB at the 3/4 turn, especially, that I can afford to go Calvin. Yes, there are tons of WR2s out there, but only one Calvin. But again, it feels like Calvin/Forte (for example) is almost a wash with Trent/Dez? But, would it be crazy to go Calvin/Dez in non-PPR? Sounds exciting, but it might be a stretch? Again, I could piece together a decent RB core with picks 3-6 while still being able to grab the Britt's of the world in round 7 and beyond. But, the upside is minized due to the scoring system. Hmmmm

Exactly. If you are in a 14-or-more league, you have to go RB in at least one of your first two rounds, and strongly consider it in both. If a ten-team league, going WR/WR seems even more obvious is you miss out on one of the four or five top RBs. Take the advice being given here, but adapt it to your own circumstances. Noting is universal.

Except how awesome my team's gear is.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Good thread. I really see both sides of the coin here. I think a lot of it depends on if its 10-man or 12-man, PPR or non-PPR, etc. I have #7 tonight in a 10 team, non-PPR. Based on what others have been saying, it looks like I'll have my pick between Calvin and Trent. I feel like there's enough talent at RB at the 3/4 turn, especially, that I can afford to go Calvin. Yes, there are tons of WR2s out there, but only one Calvin. But again, it feels like Calvin/Forte (for example) is almost a wash with Trent/Dez? But, would it be crazy to go Calvin/Dez in non-PPR? Sounds exciting, but it might be a stretch? Again, I could piece together a decent RB core with picks 3-6 while still being able to grab the Britt's of the world in round 7 and beyond. But, the upside is minized due to the scoring system. Hmmmm

Exactly. If you are in a 14-or-more league, you have to go RB in at least one of your first two rounds, and strongly consider it in both. If a ten-team league, going WR/WR seems even more obvious is you miss out on one of the four or five top RBs. Take the advice being given here, but adapt it to your own circumstances. Noting is universal.

Except how awesome my team's gear is.

RBs 2-8 are essentially interchangeable and I could argue it goes deeper depending on the format. You won't be "missing out" with RB6.

 

[Voodoo Rage]

I'd love to hear Matt Waldman's take on this but to WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP you are going to need to hit on ELITE players. Elite players are the kind of guys who SIGNIFICANTLY outperform their breathren. If you are stuck at the back corner of the draft, I don't see any RB's who fit that bill. I see guys like Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, or Stephen Jackson. Guys who are ADEQUATE, who will probably average points to keep you afloat every week but not elite. To play to win, you need to take some chances. Part of that chance, in my opinion, is going for the home run. Dez, AJ, Brandon Marshall are easy home runs. The real question is are those home runs going to be offset by mediocrity at your running back position. I really don't believe that to be the case. Look back at your league the last few years. Did guys like Stephen Jackson or Matt Forte really SIGNIFANTLY outperform the Shonn Greene's or Michael Turner's of the world? Not really. I'm pretty damn confident that I can via hook or crook replace a Matt Forte on my roster. AJ Green, not so much.

Again, going back to what really wins leagues. It's being really lucky. SOMEONE in your league is going to be lucky. He is going to be the guy who has his two drafted elite players perform up to expectations PLUS they are going to land a 3rd elite guy later in the draft or via waivers. He is the guy who walked into his playoffs last year with Dez Bryant, Adrian Peterson, and Cam Newton. I'm going to try to be THAT guy.

 

[ponchsox]

I'd love to hear Matt Waldman take on this but to WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP you are going to need to hit on ELITE players. Elite players are the kind of guys who SIGNIFICANTLY outperform their breathren. If you stuck at the back corner of the draft, I don't see any RB's who fit that bill. I see guys like Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, or Stephen Jackson. Guys who are ADEQUATE, who will probably average points to keep you afloat every week but not elite. To play to win, you need to take some chances. Part of that chance, in my opinion, is going for the home run. Dez, AJ, Brandon Marshall are easy home runs. The real question is are those home runs going to be offset by mediocrity at your running back position. I really don't believe that to be the case. Look back at your league the last few years. Did guys like Stephen Jackson or Matt Forte really SIGNIFANTLY outperform the Shonn Greene's or Michael Turner's of the world? Not really. I'm pretty damn confident that I can via hook or crook replace a Matt Forte on my roster. AJ Green, not so much.

Again, going back to what really wins leagues. It's being really lucky. SOMEONE in your league is going to be lucky. He is going to be the guy who has his two drafted elite players perform up to expectations PLUS they are going to land a 3rd elite guy later in the draft or via waivers. He is the guy who walked into his playoffs last year with Dez Bryant, Adrian Peterson, and Cam Newton. I'm going to try to be THAT guy.

Funny you mention, I was just offered a trade of AJ Green for Forte and turned it down.

 

[(HULK)]

Good thread. I really see both sides of the coin here. I think a lot of it depends on if its 10-man or 12-man, PPR or non-PPR, etc. I have #7 tonight in a 10 team, non-PPR. Based on what others have been saying, it looks like I'll have my pick between Calvin and Trent. I feel like there's enough talent at RB at the 3/4 turn, especially, that I can afford to go Calvin. Yes, there are tons of WR2s out there, but only one Calvin. But again, it feels like Calvin/Forte (for example) is almost a wash with Trent/Dez? But, would it be crazy to go Calvin/Dez in non-PPR? Sounds exciting, but it might be a stretch? Again, I could piece together a decent RB core with picks 3-6 while still being able to grab the Britt's of the world in round 7 and beyond. But, the upside is minized due to the scoring system. Hmmmm

But what if there's a big run and you're stuck with the likes of Darren McFadden as your #1 RB? That seems very risky to me. If you happen to get lucky and land Lacy and or Wilson this might pay off.

If I could be certain I'd get Lacy and Wilson in the 3rd and 4th, I'd draft WRs in rounds 1 and 2. The problem is I'm nowhere near certain that they'll fall.

 

[(HULK)]

PS, this is why I prefer auctions imo

 

[(HULK)]

I'd love to hear Matt Waldman's take on this but to WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP you are going to need to hit on ELITE players. Elite players are the kind of guys who SIGNIFICANTLY outperform their breathren. If you are stuck at the back corner of the draft, I don't see any RB's who fit that bill. I see guys like Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, or Stephen Jackson. Guys who are ADEQUATE, who will probably average points to keep you afloat every week but not elite. To play to win, you need to take some chances. Part of that chance, in my opinion, is going for the home run. Dez, AJ, Brandon Marshall are easy home runs. The real question is are those home runs going to be offset by mediocrity at your running back position. I really don't believe that to be the case. Look back at your league the last few years. Did guys like Stephen Jackson or Matt Forte really SIGNIFANTLY outperform the Shonn Greene's or Michael Turner's of the world? Not really. I'm pretty damn confident that I can via hook or crook replace a Matt Forte on my roster. AJ Green, not so much.

Again, going back to what really wins leagues. It's being really lucky. SOMEONE in your league is going to be lucky. He is going to be the guy who has his two drafted elite players perform up to expectations PLUS they are going to land a 3rd elite guy later in the draft or via waivers. He is the guy who walked into his playoffs last year with Dez Bryant, Adrian Peterson, and Cam Newton. I'm going to try to be THAT guy.

I completely disagree with your assessment of CJ2K, Forte, and Jackson. I would not be shocked if any of the 3 finished top 5 at RB. They're not longshots by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[(HULK)]

FWIW, in my draft tomorrow, I'm most likely getting 3 RBs in the first 4 rounds. But, the league is set up to heavily favor RBs (start 2 RBs, 2 WRs, one flex RB/WR... non-ppr). I draft 11th of 12th. Round 1 I'm taking whoever is left of my top 10 RBs. Round 2, I'm praying that another of my top 10 might slide somehow (this is a work league and some moron will draft a QB in the first IMO, and the guy at the turn is probably going WR/WR), but if that fails, I'm taking CJ2K. In the 3rd, if Lacy or Wilson has fallen, I'm taking them. In the 4th I'll probably take my first WR or maybe Gronk or if Peyton Manning has fallen, I'd think long and hard about him as well.

When I mock it, Lacy/Wilson falls to my 3rd pick about half the time. I vastly prefer the look of my team if I get one of them versus them not making it. Anytime I've mocked and NOT gone RB/RB, I have not liked how my team looked at all. With the ability to start 3 RBs, and knowing that RBs are going to fly off the board, I just can't see NOT going RB/RB.

 

[We Tigers]

I'd love to hear Matt Waldman's take on this but to WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP you are going to need to hit on ELITE players. Elite players are the kind of guys who SIGNIFICANTLY outperform their breathren. If you are stuck at the back corner of the draft, I don't see any RB's who fit that bill. I see guys like Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, or Stephen Jackson. Guys who are ADEQUATE, who will probably average points to keep you afloat every week but not elite. To play to win, you need to take some chances. Part of that chance, in my opinion, is going for the home run. Dez, AJ, Brandon Marshall are easy home runs. The real question is are those home runs going to be offset by mediocrity at your running back position. I really don't believe that to be the case. Look back at your league the last few years. Did guys like Stephen Jackson or Matt Forte really SIGNIFANTLY outperform the Shonn Greene's or Michael Turner's of the world? Not really. I'm pretty damn confident that I can via hook or crook replace a Matt Forte on my roster. AJ Green, not so much.

Again, going back to what really wins leagues. It's being really lucky. SOMEONE in your league is going to be lucky. He is going to be the guy who has his two drafted elite players perform up to expectations PLUS they are going to land a 3rd elite guy later in the draft or via waivers. He is the guy who walked into his playoffs last year with Dez Bryant, Adrian Peterson, and Cam Newton. I'm going to try to be THAT guy.

I completely disagree with your assessment of CJ2K, Forte, and Jackson. I would not be shocked if any of the 3 finished top 5 at RB. They're not longshots by any stretch of the imagination.

Yeah, I also completely disagree. Seeing those 3 RBs as being Shonn Green 2012 type players belies having paid little attention to the offseason, preseason, etc. The spacing between guys like those and Lynch, Richardson, Charles, etc., isn't as great as you might have thought before August. Will all three of them blow up? You know, probably not, but I'd say their chances aren't much worse than the consensus 1st round backs.

 

[LawFitz]

Now I admit, my league is fairly archaic... 2 RB, 3 WR no flex. If there's flex involved, I would think you'd have to go RB earlier just because the RB run would be even more pronounced and 3.11 and 4.2 look more like 4.11 and 5.2.

Most of the debates on this board about RB drafting strategy seem to miss this VERY relevant point. If you can start 3 RBs, you have no flexibility (pun intended) and must follow suit with at least one, if not two RBs in the first two rounds.

There is a similar argument for leagues with start 2 RBs but 14+ teams (maybe even for 12 teamers).

BUT...

If you play with a start 2 RB format, and <=10 teams there is enough RB depth in rds 3-6 to wait on RB if you must in order to avoid the tail end of a run. This is even more true in start 3 WR and PPR formats.

Heck in certain formats... 10 teams, 2 RB / 3 WR, no flex, PPR, if you are drafting in the back end of rd 1, going full upside down (i.e. no RB picked until Rd 5+) can even be viable. The roster math certainly suggests it.

 

[Instinctive]

Now I admit, my league is fairly archaic... 2 RB, 3 WR no flex. If there's flex involved, I would think you'd have to go RB earlier just because the RB run would be even more pronounced and 3.11 and 4.2 look more like 4.11 and 5.2.

Most of the debates on this board about RB drafting strategy seem to miss this VERY relevant point. If you can start 3 RBs, you have no flexibility (pun intended) and must follow suit with at least one, if not two RBs in the first two rounds.

There is a similar argument for leagues with start 2 RBs but 14+ teams (maybe even for 12 teamers).

BUT...

If you play with a start 2 RB format, and <=10 teams there is enough RB depth in rds 3-6 to wait on RB if you must in order to avoid the tail end of a run. This is even more true in start 3 WR and PPR formats.

Heck in certain formats... 10 teams, 2 RB / 3 WR, no flex, PPR, if you are drafting in the back end of rd 1, going full upside down (i.e. no RB picked until Rd 5+) can even be viable. The roster math certainly suggests it.

Not necessarily true. You're assuming you want to flex a RB. It may make more sense to flex another position.

 

[HF21]

Picking from the 12 spot on Saturday, I took Forte and AJ Green at 1/2.

By the time I got to the 3/4 turn my RB choices were: Miller, Wilson, Lacy Bernard, Richardson, Mathews, Ivory, DWill

I took Miller and Roddy White at the 3/4. the rest of the above RB were gone by the Time I got to 5/6.

At 5/6 I passed on: Bell, Mendehall, Vereen, Brown, and Sproles. (I took Matt Ryan and Torry Smith)

I did take Sproles at the 7/8 turn

How did Sproles last until the 7/8 turn in a 12 teamer?

Even in a non-PPR, he should be gone by the end of the 4th.

 

[LawFitz]

Now I admit, my league is fairly archaic... 2 RB, 3 WR no flex. If there's flex involved, I would think you'd have to go RB earlier just because the RB run would be even more pronounced and 3.11 and 4.2 look more like 4.11 and 5.2.

Most of the debates on this board about RB drafting strategy seem to miss this VERY relevant point. If you can start 3 RBs, you have no flexibility (pun intended) and must follow suit with at least one, if not two RBs in the first two rounds.

There is a similar argument for leagues with start 2 RBs but 14+ teams (maybe even for 12 teamers).

BUT...

If you play with a start 2 RB format, and <=10 teams there is enough RB depth in rds 3-6 to wait on RB if you must in order to avoid the tail end of a run. This is even more true in start 3 WR and PPR formats.

Heck in certain formats... 10 teams, 2 RB / 3 WR, no flex, PPR, if you are drafting in the back end of rd 1, going full upside down (i.e. no RB picked until Rd 5+) can even be viable. The roster math certainly suggests it.

Not necessarily true. You're assuming you want to flex a RB. It may make more sense to flex another position.

I should have expanded. What I meant is that with flex your league mates have a major incentive to draft 3 RBs early, compared to strict start 2 RB leagues, drying up the positional depth as the draft rounds ensue. In a flex league there is ZERO chance of getting Lacy or Miller in the late 5th. In my 10-team 1/2/3/1/1 league with 0.5 PPR, there's a very good chance one of these guys will be there. Or a guy like Murray.

If I start my draft with three top 10 WR (or Graham/Gronk) and a top 3-5 QB, I'd feel just fine about shot gunning RBs like this from rounds 5-9. I think I could get something along the lines of Miller, Gio, Richardson, Shane Vereen, Bryce Brown and I'd be okay with that. The problem with larger leagues and flex setup is that you have to remove Miller and Gio from the list above and suddenly you have to take the Richardson and Vereen types a couple rounds early out of desperation.

Doing the roster math to see which RBs will fall in your SPECIFIC league is the key here. This is the case every year, but it seems especially accentuated this year because of the resurgence of RB/RB theory in the herd.

 

[ImTheScientist]

It's funny but IMO the pool of QBs and WRs seem shallower and RBs seem much deeper than in the past few seasons.

Did someone time warp you back to 1994?

 

[ImTheScientist]

In the FPC you start 2RBs, 2WRs, and 2Flex (TE, WR, or RB)

In that case since there is 2 flex spots it gives you the versatility to go RB, RB, RB and be ok. I would say without that 2nd flex spot I probably wouldn't do it.

 

[rascal]

I think it depends on your draft position. I did about a dozen mock drafts and RB-RB in the 10th draft spot in a 10 team league consistently resulted in a better team. So I went that strategy in my draft and ended up with with McCoy (1), Morris (2), Sproles (5), Richardson (7) as my RBs and White (3), Andre (4), Colston (6), and Decker (8) as my WRs.

FWIW, we start 2 RB, 3 WR/TE, 2 Flex

 

[Voodoo Rage]

Yeah, I also completely disagree. Seeing those 3 RBs as being Shonn Green 2012 type players belies having paid little attention to the offseason, preseason, etc. The spacing between guys like those and Lynch, Richardson, Charles, etc., isn't as great as you might have thought before August. Will all three of them blow up? You know, probably not, but I'd say their chances aren't much worse than the consensus 1st round backs.

Bottom line is that every year almost half of the top 10 backs fall out of the top 10 and as a result that means that those spots will be replaced by guys drafted later or from the waiver wire. And even if you miss out on one of those guys, getting a top 15, 20, or 25 back to start is very expected. You give me a top THREE WR and tell me that by playoff time one of the guys from my RB bench will be averaging top 20 RB numbers, I'm happy with that outcome. I think assuming that the only way you can survive not taking a top RB is if you luck out and get next year's Alfred Morris is just not reasonable. The reality is that guys like Knowshon Moreno, BenJarvus Green Ellis, Mikel LeShoure, and even Shonn Greene or Michael Turner did just fine in their owner's lineups down the stretch last year. I'm just not seeing legitimate arguments that Forte, SJax, or Chris Johnson are really that significant of an upside to outperform say a #15-20 RB compared to the kind of point advantage you will get from those elite WR's.

 

[Chaka]

It's funny but IMO the pool of QBs and WRs seem shallower and RBs seem much deeper than in the past few seasons.

Did someone time warp you back to 1994?

No.

Brees, Rodgers, Manning are the sure fire locks. I like Cam & Romo to produce top fantasy numbers. Ryan has the tools but also has a bottom 5 offensive line and Brady has an entirely new supporting cast. However I think all 7 are ones you can rely on and after that it is a crap shoot. Stafford put up record passing numbers while only managing 20 TD passes sure that could have been an aberration but so could the 41 TDs from the previous season. Plus he has played 16 games one time in 4 seasons

Then you get to the 2nd year QBs which are always a toss up whether or not they were the real deal or aberrations. Kaepernick, Wilson, RGIII & Luck all have the potential to be great but do we really know what they are? I like Luck and Wilson out of this group but Kaepernick lost his favorite receiver, RGIII is coming off ACL surgery.

For the WRs there are Calvin, Dez, AJ, Marshall, Julio, Demaryius and probably Fitz and Roddy then a hole big pool of "I hope". Andre Johnson has trouble staying healthy and has never put up 10 TDs. Randall Cobb? Seriously? Victor Cruz who was abysmal for the second half of last season (52 ypg and 3 TDs) and Eli looks terrible and 2/5 of the o-line is injured. Vincent Jackson is another guy who has never put up 10 TDs.

And then the cupboard really gets bare with the likes of Bowe, Amendola, Colston, Wayne and the like.

But at running back there are no fewer than 15 guys you can reasonably expect to dominate the touches on their respective team. I have never seen a season with so many RBs having a compelling argument to finish as the #1 fantasy RB with Peterson, Foster, Martin, Charles, Spiller, Richardson, Lynch, Rice & McCoy. The next tier could potentially explode too with Morris, Chris Johnson and Forte. Then you can add Ridley who leads the team that has scored more rushing TDs than any other team over the last three years, Steven Jackson who is in the best situation of his career and MJD who has produced top 5 numbers on worse teams than he is on now. I would be thrilled with either of those last three as my #1 RB if I was able to get two of the top 6 WRs in the first two rounds.

Then there are guys like Lacy and David Wilson as well as guys like Gore & DeMarco Murray and even Reggie Bush is looking like he has potential to make it into the top 10.

It's a very deep year for RBs.

As I bemoaned earlier it is sad that in most leagues guys like Wilson, Gore & Lacy will be drafted ahead of guys like Fitz & Romo but that's just the sad, and kind of pathetic, reality. But it doesn't change the fact that this is a very deep year for RBs.

 

[bucsbaby]

Okay, I'll do some numbers for you. In a league that I have a draft for tomorrow night, using FBG's projections, and their latest ADP #s, here is what it looks like for me picking @ 11:

1.11: Either Alfred Morris if I go RB or Dez Bryant if I go WR

2.2: Either Chris Johnson RB or AJ Green WR (his ADP is 2.1, but I'll let it slide)

3.11: Either Lamar Miller RB (wouldn't be my choice but these aren't my projections) or Dwayne Bowe WR

4.2: Either Eddie Lacy RB or Colston WR

5.11: Either Ryan Mathews RB or Antonio Brown WR

Now, I did this in the FBG's excel spreadsheet and it gives you a nice little "value" printout for each player on the right.

Morris = 116

Dez = 74

CJ2K = 98

AJ = 72

Lamar = 61

Bowe = 33

Lacy = 57

Colston = 23

Mathews = 40

Brown = 17

At each point, the RB is worth more than the WR.

If you drafted Alfred, CJ2K, Lamar, Colston, Brown you get 315 points of "value".

If you drafted Dez, AJ, Bowe, Lacy, Mathews you get 276 points of "value".

The reason for this is simple. There are 10 legit RB1s. Maybe about 6 to 8 RB2s that aren't a total wildcard. Beyond that, there is nothing except insane longshots. Meanwhile, there is 1 top WR, followed by 6 to 8 elite WRs, followed by a tremendously huge tier of WR2s. You can get people very late like Josh Gordon and Justin Blackmon and I have just as much confidence in them as I do in Bowe or Brown.

It makes nothing but sense to draft RB heavy up top this year.

Thanks for posting these numbers, but I'm curious: How many starting RBs and WRs are taken into account for these VBD numbers? Is it based on PPR? What was the baseline used?

PS, this is why I prefer auctions imo

I agree whole-heartedly, I much prefer auctions. In auctions, if everyone spends a huge % of their cap on a RB run, you can happily join in, knowing that you'll be competing with the same amount of $ for the stud WRs. However, in a draft, if you chase RB15, the guy who drafted RB1 could come back on you by drafting WR5, WR6 at the turn and be a juggernaut.

FWIW, in my draft tomorrow, I'm most likely getting 3 RBs in the first 4 rounds. But, the league is set up to heavily favor RBs (start 2 RBs, 2 WRs, one flex RB/WR... non-ppr). I draft 11th of 12th. Round 1 I'm taking whoever is left of my top 10 RBs. Round 2, I'm praying that another of my top 10 might slide somehow (this is a work league and some moron will draft a QB in the first IMO, and the guy at the turn is probably going WR/WR), but if that fails, I'm taking CJ2K. In the 3rd, if Lacy or Wilson has fallen, I'm taking them. In the 4th I'll probably take my first WR or maybe Gronk or if Peyton Manning has fallen, I'd think long and hard about him as well.

When I mock it, Lacy/Wilson falls to my 3rd pick about half the time. I vastly prefer the look of my team if I get one of them versus them not making it. Anytime I've mocked and NOT gone RB/RB, I have not liked how my team looked at all. With the ability to start 3 RBs, and knowing that RBs are going to fly off the board, I just can't see NOT going RB/RB.

If you can start 3RB vs. only 2WR that changes everything. In that situation, there is a good chance that I would start out with at least 2, maybe 3, RBs, depending on draft position.

In the FPC you start 2RBs, 2WRs, and 2Flex (TE, WR, or RB)

In that case since there is 2 flex spots it gives you the versatility to go RB, RB, RB and be ok. I would say without that 2nd flex spot I probably wouldn't do it.

Yeah, if you can start up to 4 RBs, that really, really gives a lot of incentive to draft RBs in the early rounds compared to my league where you can only start 2RB but 3WR.

 

[Kenny Powers]

FWIW, in my draft tomorrow, I'm most likely getting 3 RBs in the first 4 rounds. But, the league is set up to heavily favor RBs (start 2 RBs, 2 WRs, one flex RB/WR... non-ppr). I draft 11th of 12th. Round 1 I'm taking whoever is left of my top 10 RBs. Round 2, I'm praying that another of my top 10 might slide somehow (this is a work league and some moron will draft a QB in the first IMO, and the guy at the turn is probably going WR/WR), but if that fails, I'm taking CJ2K. In the 3rd, if Lacy or Wilson has fallen, I'm taking them. In the 4th I'll probably take my first WR or maybe Gronk or if Peyton Manning has fallen, I'd think long and hard about him as well.

When I mock it, Lacy/Wilson falls to my 3rd pick about half the time. I vastly prefer the look of my team if I get one of them versus them not making it. Anytime I've mocked and NOT gone RB/RB, I have not liked how my team looked at all. With the ability to start 3 RBs, and knowing that RBs are going to fly off the board, I just can't see NOT going RB/RB.

I agree with pretty much all of this. My league is 12 teams, start 2RB/2WR/2Flex, non-PPR. I finally finished my projections and VBD, and its clear the value of the RBs in this format when I can potentially start 4 every week. When I look at only starting 2 from either position, its close with the 2nd rounds RBs and Dez/Marshall based on my projections, but when you incorporate 1 flex, and even moreso with the 2nd flex, the RBs are no-brainers.

I definitely plan on going RB-RB tonight, potentially with another RB in the 3rd, and will definitely have 3 RBs within the first 5 rounds. I plan on getting 2-3 WRS in rounds 6-9 as I see a ton of value there and the RBs that interest me in that range are few and far between, another reason why I want to get my RBs early

 

[Kenny Powers]

It's funny but IMO the pool of QBs and WRs seem shallower and RBs seem much deeper than in the past few seasons.

Did someone time warp you back to 1994?

No.

Brees, Rodgers, Manning are the sure fire locks. I like Cam & Romo to produce top fantasy numbers. Ryan has the tools but also has a bottom 5 offensive line and Brady has an entirely new supporting cast. However I think all 7 are ones you can rely on and after that it is a crap shoot. Stafford put up record passing numbers while only managing 20 TD passes sure that could have been an aberration but so could the 41 TDs from the previous season. Plus he has played 16 games one time in 4 seasons

Then you get to the 2nd year QBs which are always a toss up whether or not they were the real deal or aberrations. Kaepernick, Wilson, RGIII & Luck all have the potential to be great but do we really know what they are? I like Luck and Wilson out of this group but Kaepernick lost his favorite receiver, RGIII is coming off ACL surgery.

For the WRs there are Calvin, Dez, AJ, Marshall, Julio, Demaryius and probably Fitz and Roddy then a hole big pool of "I hope". Andre Johnson has trouble staying healthy and has never put up 10 TDs. Randall Cobb? Seriously? Victor Cruz who was abysmal for the second half of last season (52 ypg and 3 TDs) and Eli looks terrible and 2/5 of the o-line is injured. Vincent Jackson is another guy who has never put up 10 TDs.

And then the cupboard really gets bare with the likes of Bowe, Amendola, Colston, Wayne and the like.

But at running back there are no fewer than 15 guys you can reasonably expect to dominate the touches on their respective team. I have never seen a season with so many RBs having a compelling argument to finish as the #1 fantasy RB with Peterson, Foster, Martin, Charles, Spiller, Richardson, Lynch, Rice & McCoy. The next tier could potentially explode too with Morris, Chris Johnson and Forte. Then you can add Ridley who leads the team that has scored more rushing TDs than any other team over the last three years, Steven Jackson who is in the best situation of his career and MJD who has produced top 5 numbers on worse teams than he is on now. I would be thrilled with either of those last three as my #1 RB if I was able to get two of the top 6 WRs in the first two rounds.

Then there are guys like Lacy and David Wilson as well as guys like Gore & DeMarco Murray and even Reggie Bush is looking like he has potential to make it into the top 10.

It's a very deep year for RBs.

As I bemoaned earlier it is sad that in most leagues guys like Wilson, Gore & Lacy will be drafted ahead of guys like Fitz & Romo but that's just the sad, and kind of pathetic, reality. But it doesn't change the fact that this is a very deep year for RBs.

Thats the whole point. If you go whatever combination of picks in the first 2 rounds that does not include a RB, you arent getting any of those RBs in the 3rd round.

 

[pantherclub]

Picking from the 12 spot on Saturday, I took Forte and AJ Green at 1/2.

By the time I got to the 3/4 turn my RB choices were: Miller, Wilson, Lacy Bernard, Richardson, Mathews, Ivory, DWill

I took Miller and Roddy White at the 3/4. the rest of the above RB were gone by the Time I got to 5/6.

At 5/6 I passed on: Bell, Mendehall, Vereen, Brown, and Sproles. (I took Matt Ryan and Torry Smith)

I did take Sproles at the 7/8 turn

How did Sproles last until the 7/8 turn in a 12 teamer?

Even in a non-PPR, he should be gone by the end of the 4th.

I am guessing much like my draft the rb rb guys are scrambling for WR and thus allowing someone like him to drop. It happens every year in my league.

 

[pantherclub]

Yeah, I also completely disagree. Seeing those 3 RBs as being Shonn Green 2012 type players belies having paid little attention to the offseason, preseason, etc. The spacing between guys like those and Lynch, Richardson, Charles, etc., isn't as great as you might have thought before August. Will all three of them blow up? You know, probably not, but I'd say their chances aren't much worse than the consensus 1st round backs.

Bottom line is that every year almost half of the top 10 backs fall out of the top 10 and as a result that means that those spots will be replaced by guys drafted later or from the waiver wire. And even if you miss out on one of those guys, getting a top 15, 20, or 25 back to start is very expected. You give me a top THREE WR and tell me that by playoff time one of the guys from my RB bench will be averaging top 20 RB numbers, I'm happy with that outcome. I think assuming that the only way you can survive not taking a top RB is if you luck out and get next year's Alfred Morris is just not reasonable. The reality is that guys like Knowshon Moreno, BenJarvus Green Ellis, Mikel LeShoure, and even Shonn Greene or Michael Turner did just fine in their owner's lineups down the stretch last year. I'm just not seeing legitimate arguments that Forte, SJax, or Chris Johnson are really that significant of an upside to outperform say a #15-20 RB compared to the kind of point advantage you will get from those elite WR's.

Its just ####### amazing to me that when shown these stats and data the RB RB simply refuse to believe it. They just put their fingers in their ears and scream lalalalalalalala.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Yeah, I also completely disagree. Seeing those 3 RBs as being Shonn Green 2012 type players belies having paid little attention to the offseason, preseason, etc. The spacing between guys like those and Lynch, Richardson, Charles, etc., isn't as great as you might have thought before August. Will all three of them blow up? You know, probably not, but I'd say their chances aren't much worse than the consensus 1st round backs.

Bottom line is that every year almost half of the top 10 backs fall out of the top 10 and as a result that means that those spots will be replaced by guys drafted later or from the waiver wire. And even if you miss out on one of those guys, getting a top 15, 20, or 25 back to start is very expected. You give me a top THREE WR and tell me that by playoff time one of the guys from my RB bench will be averaging top 20 RB numbers, I'm happy with that outcome. I think assuming that the only way you can survive not taking a top RB is if you luck out and get next year's Alfred Morris is just not reasonable. The reality is that guys like Knowshon Moreno, BenJarvus Green Ellis, Mikel LeShoure, and even Shonn Greene or Michael Turner did just fine in their owner's lineups down the stretch last year. I'm just not seeing legitimate arguments that Forte, SJax, or Chris Johnson are really that significant of an upside to outperform say a #15-20 RB compared to the kind of point advantage you will get from those elite WR's.

Its just ####### amazing to me that when shown these stats and data the RB RB simply refuse to believe it. They just put their fingers in their ears and scream lalalalalalalala.

From 2009 to 2010 only 3 of the top 10 WR's remained in the top 10.

From 2010 to 2011 only 3 of the top 10 WRs remained in the top 10.

From 2011 to 2012 only 3 of the top 10 WRs remained in the top 10.

Im not a RB/RB guy or a WR/WR guy....Im a year to year change of stradegy guy depending on how deep I feel positions are. Anyways... that data suggests you have your fingers in your ears screaming LALALALALALALA. That suggests more turnover at WR than RB's within the Top 10.

70% of the WR's fall out of the top 10 and as a result that means those spots are replaced by guys drafted later or from the waiver wire.

 

[SameSongNDance]

It just amazes me how every time I get to rounds 6/7 the RB well is all but dried up but there's WR value galore. VBD dictates that I shouldn't follow the RB run if I'm out of position but I just feel like I'm at a legitimate disadvantage when I need to fill out a position with guys like A.Brown, BGE, Ingram, Tate, Hillman, Ballard, F. Jackson and etc. where as everyone else is filling out their position of need with guys like Shorts, Austin (both), Hilton, Mike Williams, Gordon and etc.

 

[pantherclub]

Yeah, I also completely disagree. Seeing those 3 RBs as being Shonn Green 2012 type players belies having paid little attention to the offseason, preseason, etc. The spacing between guys like those and Lynch, Richardson, Charles, etc., isn't as great as you might have thought before August. Will all three of them blow up? You know, probably not, but I'd say their chances aren't much worse than the consensus 1st round backs.

Bottom line is that every year almost half of the top 10 backs fall out of the top 10 and as a result that means that those spots will be replaced by guys drafted later or from the waiver wire. And even if you miss out on one of those guys, getting a top 15, 20, or 25 back to start is very expected. You give me a top THREE WR and tell me that by playoff time one of the guys from my RB bench will be averaging top 20 RB numbers, I'm happy with that outcome. I think assuming that the only way you can survive not taking a top RB is if you luck out and get next year's Alfred Morris is just not reasonable. The reality is that guys like Knowshon Moreno, BenJarvus Green Ellis, Mikel LeShoure, and even Shonn Greene or Michael Turner did just fine in their owner's lineups down the stretch last year. I'm just not seeing legitimate arguments that Forte, SJax, or Chris Johnson are really that significant of an upside to outperform say a #15-20 RB compared to the kind of point advantage you will get from those elite WR's.

Its just ####### amazing to me that when shown these stats and data the RB RB simply refuse to believe it. They just put their fingers in their ears and scream lalalalalalalala.

From 2009 to 2010 only 3 of the top 10 WR's remained in the top 10.

From 2010 to 2011 only 3 of the top 10 WRs remained in the top 10.

From 2011 to 2012 only 3 of the top 10 WRs remained in the top 10.

Im not a RB/RB guy or a WR/WR guy....Im a year to year change of stradegy guy depending on how deep I feel positions are. Anyways... that data suggests you have your fingers in your ears screaming LALALALALALALA. That suggests more turnover at WR than RB's within the Top 10.

70% of the WR's fall out of the top 10 and as a result that means those spots are replaced by guys drafted later or from the waiver wire.

link please

 

[ImTheScientist]

Yeah, I also completely disagree. Seeing those 3 RBs as being Shonn Green 2012 type players belies having paid little attention to the offseason, preseason, etc. The spacing between guys like those and Lynch, Richardson, Charles, etc., isn't as great as you might have thought before August. Will all three of them blow up? You know, probably not, but I'd say their chances aren't much worse than the consensus 1st round backs.

Bottom line is that every year almost half of the top 10 backs fall out of the top 10 and as a result that means that those spots will be replaced by guys drafted later or from the waiver wire. And even if you miss out on one of those guys, getting a top 15, 20, or 25 back to start is very expected. You give me a top THREE WR and tell me that by playoff time one of the guys from my RB bench will be averaging top 20 RB numbers, I'm happy with that outcome. I think assuming that the only way you can survive not taking a top RB is if you luck out and get next year's Alfred Morris is just not reasonable. The reality is that guys like Knowshon Moreno, BenJarvus Green Ellis, Mikel LeShoure, and even Shonn Greene or Michael Turner did just fine in their owner's lineups down the stretch last year. I'm just not seeing legitimate arguments that Forte, SJax, or Chris Johnson are really that significant of an upside to outperform say a #15-20 RB compared to the kind of point advantage you will get from those elite WR's.

Its just ####### amazing to me that when shown these stats and data the RB RB simply refuse to believe it. They just put their fingers in their ears and scream lalalalalalalala.

From 2009 to 2010 only 3 of the top 10 WR's remained in the top 10.

From 2010 to 2011 only 3 of the top 10 WRs remained in the top 10.

From 2011 to 2012 only 3 of the top 10 WRs remained in the top 10.

Im not a RB/RB guy or a WR/WR guy....Im a year to year change of stradegy guy depending on how deep I feel positions are. Anyways... that data suggests you have your fingers in your ears screaming LALALALALALALA. That suggests more turnover at WR than RB's within the Top 10.

70% of the WR's fall out of the top 10 and as a result that means those spots are replaced by guys drafted later or from the waiver wire.

link please

After you laughed at people I was curious. Check out the change in the top 10.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/historical-wr-2009.php

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/historical-wr-2010.php

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/historical-wr-2011.php

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/historical-wr-2012.php

 

[Chaka]

It's funny but IMO the pool of QBs and WRs seem shallower and RBs seem much deeper than in the past few seasons.

Did someone time warp you back to 1994?

No.

Brees, Rodgers, Manning are the sure fire locks. I like Cam & Romo to produce top fantasy numbers. Ryan has the tools but also has a bottom 5 offensive line and Brady has an entirely new supporting cast. However I think all 7 are ones you can rely on and after that it is a crap shoot. Stafford put up record passing numbers while only managing 20 TD passes sure that could have been an aberration but so could the 41 TDs from the previous season. Plus he has played 16 games one time in 4 seasons

Then you get to the 2nd year QBs which are always a toss up whether or not they were the real deal or aberrations. Kaepernick, Wilson, RGIII & Luck all have the potential to be great but do we really know what they are? I like Luck and Wilson out of this group but Kaepernick lost his favorite receiver, RGIII is coming off ACL surgery.

For the WRs there are Calvin, Dez, AJ, Marshall, Julio, Demaryius and probably Fitz and Roddy then a hole big pool of "I hope". Andre Johnson has trouble staying healthy and has never put up 10 TDs. Randall Cobb? Seriously? Victor Cruz who was abysmal for the second half of last season (52 ypg and 3 TDs) and Eli looks terrible and 2/5 of the o-line is injured. Vincent Jackson is another guy who has never put up 10 TDs.

And then the cupboard really gets bare with the likes of Bowe, Amendola, Colston, Wayne and the like.

But at running back there are no fewer than 15 guys you can reasonably expect to dominate the touches on their respective team. I have never seen a season with so many RBs having a compelling argument to finish as the #1 fantasy RB with Peterson, Foster, Martin, Charles, Spiller, Richardson, Lynch, Rice & McCoy. The next tier could potentially explode too with Morris, Chris Johnson and Forte. Then you can add Ridley who leads the team that has scored more rushing TDs than any other team over the last three years, Steven Jackson who is in the best situation of his career and MJD who has produced top 5 numbers on worse teams than he is on now. I would be thrilled with either of those last three as my #1 RB if I was able to get two of the top 6 WRs in the first two rounds.

Then there are guys like Lacy and David Wilson as well as guys like Gore & DeMarco Murray and even Reggie Bush is looking like he has potential to make it into the top 10.

It's a very deep year for RBs.

As I bemoaned earlier it is sad that in most leagues guys like Wilson, Gore & Lacy will be drafted ahead of guys like Fitz & Romo but that's just the sad, and kind of pathetic, reality. But it doesn't change the fact that this is a very deep year for RBs.

Thats the whole point. If you go whatever combination of picks in the first 2 rounds that does not include a RB, you arent getting any of those RBs in the 3rd round.

And how is that different than any other year in those RB dominated leagues when the RB pool is much shallower?

Why is it when you have only 7 top notch QBs and 6 WRs everyone thinks you can wait on them but when you have 15-18 potential #1 RBs everyone thinks they need to rush out and grab them? I'd tell you the answer but no one wants to hear it.

 

[pantherclub]

Yeah, I also completely disagree. Seeing those 3 RBs as being Shonn Green 2012 type players belies having paid little attention to the offseason, preseason, etc. The spacing between guys like those and Lynch, Richardson, Charles, etc., isn't as great as you might have thought before August. Will all three of them blow up? You know, probably not, but I'd say their chances aren't much worse than the consensus 1st round backs.

Bottom line is that every year almost half of the top 10 backs fall out of the top 10 and as a result that means that those spots will be replaced by guys drafted later or from the waiver wire. And even if you miss out on one of those guys, getting a top 15, 20, or 25 back to start is very expected. You give me a top THREE WR and tell me that by playoff time one of the guys from my RB bench will be averaging top 20 RB numbers, I'm happy with that outcome. I think assuming that the only way you can survive not taking a top RB is if you luck out and get next year's Alfred Morris is just not reasonable. The reality is that guys like Knowshon Moreno, BenJarvus Green Ellis, Mikel LeShoure, and even Shonn Greene or Michael Turner did just fine in their owner's lineups down the stretch last year. I'm just not seeing legitimate arguments that Forte, SJax, or Chris Johnson are really that significant of an upside to outperform say a #15-20 RB compared to the kind of point advantage you will get from those elite WR's.

Its just ####### amazing to me that when shown these stats and data the RB RB simply refuse to believe it. They just put their fingers in their ears and scream lalalalalalalala.

From 2009 to 2010 only 3 of the top 10 WR's remained in the top 10.

From 2010 to 2011 only 3 of the top 10 WRs remained in the top 10.

From 2011 to 2012 only 3 of the top 10 WRs remained in the top 10.

Im not a RB/RB guy or a WR/WR guy....Im a year to year change of stradegy guy depending on how deep I feel positions are. Anyways... that data suggests you have your fingers in your ears screaming LALALALALALALA. That suggests more turnover at WR than RB's within the Top 10.

70% of the WR's fall out of the top 10 and as a result that means those spots are replaced by guys drafted later or from the waiver wire.

link please

After you laughed at people I was curious. Check out the change in the top 10.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/historical-wr-2009.php

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/historical-wr-2010.php

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/historical-wr-2011.php

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/historical-wr-2012.php

I am talking about preseason rankings

 

[ImTheScientist]

From 2009 to 2010 only 3 of the top 10 WR's remained in the top 10.

From 2010 to 2011 only 3 of the top 10 WRs remained in the top 10.

From 2011 to 2012 only 3 of the top 10 WRs remained in the top 10.

Im not a RB/RB guy or a WR/WR guy....Im a year to year change of stradegy guy depending on how deep I feel positions are. Anyways... that data suggests you have your fingers in your ears screaming LALALALALALALA. That suggests more turnover at WR than RB's within the Top 10.

70% of the WR's fall out of the top 10 and as a result that means those spots are replaced by guys drafted later or from the waiver wire.

link please

After you laughed at people I was curious. Check out the change in the top 10.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/historical-wr-2009.php

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/historical-wr-2010.php

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/historical-wr-2011.php

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/historical-wr-2012.php

I am talking about preseason rankings

Ok Below is data from ADP of the last 4 years.

2012: 40% fell out

2011: 50% fell out

2010: 60% fell out

2009: 50% fell out

Overall about 50% falls out.

1 	1.06 	Calvin Johnson 	WR 	DET	5.9 	1.6 	1.02 	1.11 	80 	2 	2.03 	Julio Jones 	WR 	ATL	14.9 	3.4 	1.06 	3.02 	116 	3 	2.11 	Larry Fitzgerald 	WR 	ARI	22.5 	4.6 	1.10 	3.09 	144 	4 	2.12 	Brandon Marshall 	WR 	CHI	24.4 	4.2 	2.01 	3.09 	120 	5 	3.02 	A.J. Green 	WR 	CIN	26.3 	4.3 	2.03 	4.03 	100 	6 	3.03 	Andre Johnson 	WR 	HOU	27.2 	4.4 	2.03 	3.12 	103 	7 	3.04 	Greg Jennings 	WR 	MIN	28.2 	3.9 	2.06 	4.04 	110 	8 	3.06 	Roddy White 	WR 	ATL	30.3 	4.8 	2.05 	4.04 	107 	9 	3.07 	Wes Welker 	WR 	DEN	31.1 	6.6 	2.01 	4.07 	107 	10 	3.08 	Victor Cruz 	WR 	NYG	32.5 	4.2 	2.09 	4.08 	103 	1 	1.07 	Andre Johnson 	WR 	HOU	7.1 	2.2 	1.01 	2.01 	89 	2 	1.11 	Calvin Johnson 	WR 	DET	10.8 	2.9 	1.06 	3.01 	92 	3 	2.01 	Roddy White 	WR 	ATL	12.9 	2.6 	1.06 	2.07 	99 	4 	2.04 	Larry Fitzgerald 	WR 	ARI	15.6 	3.1 	1.07 	2.11 	121 	5 	2.06 	Vincent Jackson 	WR 	SD	18.0 	4.6 	1.10 	4.10 	83 	6 	2.08 	Hakeem Nicks 	WR 	NYG	20.1 	3.6 	1.10 	3.04 	71 	7 	2.10 	Greg Jennings 	WR 	GB	22.1 	3.3 	2.02 	3.08 	75 	8 	2.12 	Mike Wallace 	WR 	PIT	23.9 	4.2 	2.04 	3.10 	107 	9 	3.03 	DeSean Jackson 	WR 	PHI	27.5 	4.2 	2.06 	4.03 	78 	10 	3.07 	Miles Austin 	WR 	DAL	30.5 	4.5 	2.06 	4.06 	122 	1 	1.06 	Andre Johnson 	WR 	HOU	5.6 	1.4 	1.02 	1.09 	315 	2 	1.09 	Randy Moss 	WR 	TEN	8.8 	1.8 	1.04 	2.03 	341 	3 	1.12 	Reggie Wayne 	WR 	IND	11.9 	2.7 	1.05 	2.09 	212 	4 	2.01 	Calvin Johnson 	WR 	DET	12.6 	2.7 	1.05 	2.09 	260 	5 	2.03 	Miles Austin 	WR 	DAL	15.1 	2.8 	1.07 	2.11 	252 	6 	2.05 	Roddy White 	WR 	ATL	16.6 	3.1 	1.09 	3.04 	300 	7 	2.07 	Brandon Marshall 	WR 	MIA	18.9 	3.4 	1.09 	3.05 	255 	8 	2.07 	Larry Fitzgerald 	WR 	ARI	19.2 	3.4 	2.01 	3.05 	311 	9 	2.10 	Greg Jennings 	WR 	GB	21.5 	3.4 	1.12 	3.07 	406 	10 	2.12 	DeSean Jackson 	WR 	PHI	24.2 	4.0 	2.01 	3.09 	2841 	1.06 	Larry Fitzgerald 	WR 	ARI	6.1 	1.9 	1.01 	2.01 	274 	2 	1.08 	Randy Moss 	WR 	NE	8.2 	2.1 	1.02 	2.06 	532 	3 	1.10 	Andre Johnson 	WR 	HOU	9.8 	2.4 	1.03 	2.06 	546 	4 	1.12 	Calvin Johnson 	WR 	DET	12.3 	2.4 	1.06 	2.08 	408 	5 	2.05 	Reggie Wayne 	WR 	IND	17.2 	3.2 	1.10 	3.04 	472 	6 	2.07 	Greg Jennings 	WR 	GB	18.8 	3.2 	1.10 	3.03 	485 	7 	2.09 	Steve Smith 	WR 	CAR	21.4 	3.8 	1.11 	3.10 	402 	8 	2.10 	Roddy White 	WR 	ATL	22.3 	3.7 	1.12 	3.09 	410 	9 	3.01 	Marques Colston 	WR 	NO	24.6 	3.1 	2.04 	3.10 	382 	10 	3.02 	Anquan Boldin 	WR 	ARI	25.7 	3.7 	2.04 	3.11 	420