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Russia's Return (1 Viewer)

Putin Squeezes Belarus Strongman in Bid to Skirt Term Limits

Vladimir Putin’s surprise firing of Russia’s government and unveiling of constitutional changes that would weaken the presidency may only be Plan B for retaining power after his final term ends in 2024.

In the month before Putin’s Jan. 15 announcement, he’d pushed hard to convince his longer-serving counterpart in Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, to revive a moribund agreement to create a superstate between the neighboring former Soviet republics, two Kremlin officials said.

So far, Plan A has failed, even after another face-to-face between the leaders in Sochi last Friday. And Lukashenko, a former collective farm boss who’s run his country of 10 million like a personal fiefdom for a quarter century, is paying the price for rejecting Putin.

On Jan. 1, Putin started squeezing the lifeblood of Belarus’s economy -- cheap crude oil, which Belarus refines and exports for badly needed hard currency. Russian oil supplies to Belarus plunged by three-fourths in January and officials in Moscow say flows may stop altogether if Lukashenko doesn’t agree with its producers on market prices.

Absorbing Belarus would allow Putin to sidestep term limits by becoming the leader of a new “Union State.” Lukashenko, though once a supporter of the merger, is adamantly opposed, people close to the Kremlin said. The idea was first agreed in principle in 1999 between Lukashenko and Russia’s then-ailing president, Boris Yeltsin. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said there is no connection between integration talks with Belarus and Russian constitutional changes.

“Putin sees himself as a world leader and it’s very hard for him to disassociate himself from the role of president,” said Gleb Pavlovsky, a Kremlin adviser from 2000 to 2011. While the constitutional amendments Putin is advocating would give him some oversight over his successor as head of a strengthened State Council, the “ideal option is Belarus,” he said.

1.             Pompeo Visit

The standoff is becoming an issue of international concern, especially in light of Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in the wake of the overthrow of a Putin ally in Kyiv in 2014. The Defense Ministry in Lithuania, which borders both Russia and Belarus, warned in its 2020 threat assessment that Lukashenko has few cards left to play to resist Putin’s pursuit of “deeper political integration.”

The Lithuanian report followed the first visit to Minsk by a U.S. secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, since 1994. Pompeo told Lukashenko on Feb. 1 that American companies stood ready to meet Belarus’s oil needs at competitive prices.

That marked a stark turnaround from previous U.S. administrations. In 2005, Condoleezza Rice, then-President George W. Bush‘s secretary of state, called Lukashenko’s Belarus “Europe’s last dictatorship.” The following year, Bush imposed sanctions on Lukashenko’s “regime” for undermining “democratic processes,” penalties that were prolonged and widened by the Obama administration.

Lukashenko, 65, has proven deft at playing East and West off one another to maintain his country’s independence. Addressing voters ahead of presidential elections in August, he said Pompeo’s visit created a “scandal” in Russia, so imagine the reaction if he decided to become friends with U.S. President Donald Trump.

“If Trump comes tomorrow, what will they do then?” Lukashenko said in remarks posted on his website. “We are establishing relations with the greatest empire, the leading country in the world.”

1.             ‘Never!’

Lukashenko said in an interview with Russia’s leading talk radio station on Dec. 24 that Putin once offered him a parliamentary job in Moscow if he allowed their two countries to unite.

Asked by Ekho Moskvy about getting dragged into Putin’s plans for staying in power after 2024, the Belarusian leader said, “I’m not involved in this and I will never be. And I told this to your president. I don’t need anyone to give me some parliament post in Russia -- even if they convict me and bring me there in handcuffs! Never!”

2.             Friendship Pipeline

Belarus is an oil transit link for Russia and energy recipient

So far, Lukashenko still has a firm grip on power at home, where the state controls most major media outlets.

Public support in Belarus for the Union State has fallen to about 40% from 60% in the last year, inversely tracking the rise in tensions over energy supplies, according to Andrei Vardomatski, an independent pollster in Minsk.

The timing of Putin’s renewed pressure is instructive, given Lukashenko’s re-election bid and the importance of discounted oil to the domestic economy, said Dzmitry Kruk, senior fellow at the BEROC research group in Belarus’s capital.

“Paying full world prices for oil -- an increase of about 20% over the level Russia charged last year – would be a severe shock,” Kruk said. “The economy would feel a serious impact within months, which is hardly acceptable from a political perspective.”

3.             Concerted Push

One reason Belarus has gotten such sweetheart deals from Russia in the past is its role as the biggest conduit of combined oil and gas flows to Europe.

Russia’s Druzhba, or Friendship, pipeline to consumers in Western Europe handles about 20% of all crude exports outside the former Soviet Union. And state-run Gazprom moves about 20% of all Russian gas shipments to Europe through Belarusian pipes.

Lukashenko has responded to his country’s dependence on cut-rate oil from its former communist master by ordering the government to find enough new suppliers in the Middle East and elsewhere to slash Russia’s market share to at least 40%. Last month, Belarus ordered its first-ever shipment of crude from Norway, delivered via Lithuania.

For Putin, Belarus is a key link in a nascent Customs Union the Russian leader hopes one day will stretch from the Asian Pacific to the European Atlantic. Belarus has also been increasingly cooperative when it comes to Russian military movements and bilateral intelligence sharing, according to the Lithuanian threat assessment.

Lukashenko, in comments to various media outlets in recent months, has hinted at having three main ways to counter Russian political and economic aggression if needed -- slowing energy flows westward, hamstringing post-Soviet integration efforts and complicating lease renewals for Russian military facilities, some of which are due to expire this year.

“The big question, though, is how consistently Lukashenko will be able to stick to these positions in the event Russia exerts sustained economic and political pressure,” said Andrei Yeliseyeu, a research director at the Warsaw-based EAST Center.

 
Paul Whelan, arrested during a visit to Moscow in December 2018, sentenced to 16 years

- The trial was held in secret, allegedly Whelan was not permitted to present evidence.
It seems this guy was completely forgotten about (maybe intentionally so). Not a peep from Trump, Pompeo, Bolton, or even an anonymous leak from the State Department.

Supposedly, Whelan caught the attention of Vlad, and he was quite displeased, which made the verdict a foregone conclusion.   

 
Reports are that Russia is immediately using Whelan to negotiate the release of two Russians jailed in the US for arms & drug trafficking, Viktor Bout and Konstantin Yaroshenko, and apparently negotiations are underway.

 
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Viktor Bout's Secrets Frighten the Kremlin

+++++++++++++

What does Viktor Bout know that the Kremlin doesn't want the U.S. to find out? Ever since the 43-year-old former Russian Army officer was arrested in Bangkok in 2008 on charges of supplying the FARC rebels in Colombia with surface-to-air missiles, Moscow has fought long and hard to prevent him from being extradited to the United States to stand trial. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently promised to "continue to do everything necessary to push for [Bout's] return to his homeland," and he added that the case against him was "unlawful and political." Russia has also offered the Thai government cheap oil and fighter jets to resist U.S. extradition demands. And top Russian officials have been penning op-eds in defense of Bout, suggesting that U.S. efforts to try him will adversely affect the new Russian-American "reset" of relations.

Why the love-in between Bout and the Kremlin? One reason appears to be that he knows a lot about Russia's covert arms supplies—both official and unofficial—going back decades. In the 1980s, the Portuguese-speaking Bout served in Mozambique under career KGB officer Igor Sechin—who is now deputy prime minister and probably the most powerful man in government after Vladimir Putin himself. When the Soviet Union broke up, Bout quickly moved into the vacuum, supplying Russian weaponry across Africa using old Soviet transport planes. Bout's 20-year career of supplying weapons to the Taliban in Afghanistan, Hizbullah in Lebanon, Islamists in Somalia, and a plethora of African rebel groups "would not have been possible without state protection," says Douglas Farah, author of a recent book on Bout. And, he adds, "as Vladimir Putin consolidated the badly fractured intelligence services again over the past several years, Bout was less a rogue agent and more a part of the rapidly expanding Russian arms network." Bout was spotted in Iran in 2005 and Lebanon in 2006, allegedly delivering Russian weapons used by Hizbullah in the war with Israel that summer, says Farah. During the same period, his fleet of 50 planes also carried weapons and equipment on contract for FedEx, Halliburton, and its former subsidiary KBR in Iraq. ...

American prosecutors believe otherwise. In a complex sting operation in the penthouse of a Bangkok hotel, Bout was taped agreeing to supply 700 Russian-made MANPAD antiaircraft weapons—as well as 5,000 AK-47 firearms, millions of rounds of ammunition, various Russian spare parts for rifles, antipersonnel mines, C-4 explosives, night-vision equipment, unmanned aerial vehicles, and ultralight airplanes that could be outfitted with grenade launchers and missiles—to U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency operatives posing as members of FARC.

Analysts in Moscow have produced evidence suggesting the FARC deal may have been supported by Russian officials not only out to make a buck but also to stick it to the Colombian government, a U.S. ally, as payback for when Washington sent Stinger missiles to the Afghan mujahedin in the 1980s. There's no smoking gun, but a Bout-linked cargo plane full of weapons—detained in Bangkok last year—turned out to be registered to a Moscow address shared with various companies related to the FSB, the successor to the KGB.

Perhaps the most surprising twist of the extradition battle is how Bout has become a kind of folk hero to much of the Russian media. The state-sponsored Russia Today channel has jumped to the defense of a man once described by Peter Haim, a junior minister in the British Foreign Office, as "the merchant of death," claiming he is the victim of a CIA plot. The Voice of Russia radio station has been giving regular coverage to Bout's prison conditions and to his wife's protestations of innocence.

Anthony Davis, a security analyst with IHS Jane's, says that American authorities will want to know about the black-market proliferation of Russia's 9K38 Igla, the latest and deadliest surface-to air-missile available—especially if the Iglas have found they way into the hands of Hizbullah. But Russian anxiety over what Bout may say on the witness stand might be unfounded. Bout's wife and children still live in Russia, and he has maintained a stoic silence even after two years in a Thai jail. When Bangkok-based journalist Bertil Lintner met Bout in jail soon after his arrest, he found the Russian spitting mad at America—and defiant. He would "prefer to be a Russian hero in a U.S. jail than serve as a turncoat source on Russia's clandestine arms business" wrote Lintner. Either way, with a ruling on Bout's final extradition proceedings postponed till October, the alleged merchant of death is determined not to go down without a fight.

++++++++++++

 
is Viktor Bout one of the people that Lord of War is based on?
Yes.

Also apparently the Russians have been trying to trade for him since 2011.

Guilty Verdict for Russian in Arms Trial

Nov. 2, 2011

Viktor Bout, a former Soviet Air Force officer who became known as the “Merchant of Death” for running what American officials have described as an international arms-trafficking network, was found guilty on Wednesday of conspiring to sell antiaircraft missiles and other weapons to men he believed were Colombian terrorists intent on killing Americans.

The verdict, in Federal District Court in Manhattan, was a rather prosaic end to nearly two decades spent in the margins of international terrorism and espionage. Mr. Bout has been accused of furnishing weapons to Al Qaeda and the Taliban and into civil wars in Africa, and was reputed to have a grasp on present-day Russian intelligence. His legend inspired the 2005 film “Lord of War,” starring Nicolas Cage.

Even Mr. Bout’s arrest and extradition were theatrical: he was taken into custody in Bangkok in March 2008 after being ensnared in a foreign sting operation run by the Drug Enforcement Administration; his extradition to the United States, which Russian officials strenuously opposed, took more than two and a half years.

But the trial, presided over by Judge Shira A. Scheindlin, took only three weeks, nearly all of it spent by the prosecutors’ making their case. Mr. Bout’s lawyer did not present any witnesses; the jury took less than two days to find Mr. Bout guilty of all four charges.

Mr. Bout, 44, was convicted of conspiring to kill American citizens, officers and employees by agreeing to sell weapons to drug enforcement informants who he believed were members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, a terrorist organization known as FARC. He was also found guilty of conspiring to acquire and export surface-to-air antiaircraft missiles, and of conspiring to provide material support or resources in the form of weapons to a foreign terrorist organization.

He faces a mandatory minimum sentence of 25 years, and up to life in prison. His sentencing is scheduled for Feb. 8.

The jury found that Mr. Bout believed that the men he and his associates had been communicating with for months were, as the prosecution stressed, “waging war” against the Colombian government and its American collaborators. In fact, the men with whom Mr. Bout and his former associate, Andrew Smulian, had been orchestrating a deal were undercover Drug Enforcement Administration informants.

Preet Bharara, the United States attorney in Manhattan, said justice had been done in putting “a very dangerous man” behind bars.

“As the evidence at trial showed, Viktor Bout was ready to sell a weapons arsenal that would be the envy of some small countries,” Mr. Bharara said in a statement. “He aimed to sell those weapons to terrorists for the purpose of killing Americans.”

Upon hearing the verdict, Mr. Bout was stone-faced, even when the jury forewoman turned to look directly at him as she read the fourth, and final, guilty verdict. Mr. Bout’s wife and teenage daughter were conspicuously absent from the crowded courtroom; they had sat for a portion of the trial directly behind the agents who helped plan the sting operation that resulted in Mr. Bout’s arrest in Thailand and interrogated him upon his detention.

“We are very disappointed about this verdict,” Mr. Bout’s lawyer, Albert Y. Dayan, said upon exiting the courthouse. “This is definitely not the end of the process for us,” he added, indicating that further legal actions were coming.

Mr. Dayan said that Mr. Bout “believes that this is not the end,” and that they maintained he had been wrongfully accused.

In the government’s final rebuttal of the defense’s closing argument, Brendan R. McGuire, a prosecutor, cited e-mail exchanges, text messages and recorded telephone conversations among Mr. Bout, Mr. Smulian and other associates, as well as Mr. Bout’s own Internet research into the FARC before his meeting with the informants in a Sofitel hotel in Bangkok in March 2008.

Since his extradition, Mr. Bout has been held at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Manhattan.

There has been speculation, particularly in the Russian news media, that Mr. Bout might be traded back to Moscow, which had sharply criticized the prosecution, for spies or other prisoners, much as the United States swapped 10 Russian agents last year for four prisoners whom Russia saw as Western spies.

In March, a Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman denied that there were any such plans involving Mr. Bout, and on Wednesday, an American law enforcement official called such speculation “absolutely baseless.”

Juan Zarate, a senior counterterrorism official in the Bush administration, said a trade seemed unlikely. “He’s a singular international criminal who’s finally faced justice,” he said, “and I don’t think the United States would see it as being in our interest or anyone else’s interest to have him go back to Russia and potentially go free.”

Kenneth Kaplan, Mr. Dayan’s co-counsel, said that he had not heard of any potential prisoner swap and that any rumbling about such a deal was “a rumor that has no basis.”

Viktor Bout's lawyer, Albert Y. Dayan, after the conviction. “This is definitely not the end of the process for us,” he said.Credit...John Marshall Mantel for The New York Times

Mr. Kaplan added that the defense had heard no suggestion of a cooperation agreement with the government that would grant Mr. Bout any leniency in his sentencing. Such a deal, he said, was “unrealistic” and not something Mr. Bout had hoped for.

“I don’t see him having any interest in that,” he said.

Mr. McGuire told jurors that the evidence against Mr. Bout had been “overwhelming” and suggested that Mr. Bout’s lawyer had repeatedly tried to mold the truth in his client’s favor.

Mr. Bout has always portrayed himself as an honest businessman, and at trial, Mr. Dayan seized on that characterization. He said Mr. Bout got caught up in a desperate charade to sell nothing more than two cargo airplanes to men who Mr. Bout was “skeptical” were actually members of the FARC. Mr. Bout’s promises of tens of thousands of AK-47 rifles, millions of rounds of ammunition, hundreds of missiles, ultralightweight airplanes and other military equipment were simply “a con,” Mr. Dayan told jurors.

Mr. Smulian, the former associate of Mr. Bout’s who began cooperating with American authorities shortly after his arrest with Mr. Bout in Bangkok, suggested otherwise in his testimony. Plans had been set in motion, he said, for a lucrative, long-term relationship among him, Mr. Bout and the FARC that extended far beyond arms dealing and into military training, money laundering and even political support.

Throughout the trial, prosecutors said they had needed to prove merely that such a “criminal agreement” had existed between Mr. Bout and Mr. Smulian, and that subsequent action or even an actual pact with the men posing as FARC representatives was irrelevant.

Mr. Smulian, who pleaded guilty in 2008 to conspiring to sell arms with Mr. Bout, was among seven witnesses who testified for the prosecution. Mr. Dayan tried to undermine Mr. Smulian’s testimony, questioning his motivation and his truthfulness.

Mr. McGuire maintained that Mr. Bout “did everything to show them he could be a one-stop shop for the FARC,” underscoring Mr. Bout’s “numerous” incriminating actions during the sting operation.

At the same time, he applauded the investigation that led to Mr. Bout’s conviction by saying, “There was nothing political or improper” about it.

“It’s all over,” Mr. McGuire told jurors in his final rebuttal. “Viktor Bout is guilty of every count in the indictment.”
 
I just think it's worth noting that last month the second Russian Republic died.

- There was a short period after the Revolution when a sort of republican Duma existed, but that was wiped out by Lenin and the bolsheviks. Now this, the republican federation created after the death of the USSR has been effectively written out of existence. It's been coming for a while and whatever vestiges of a proto-democracy had been wiped out since 2006 at least. It was a much slower process than 1917 but the results is the same.

 
What Putin’s New Constitution Means for Russia and the West

A series of constitutional amendments will cement Putin’s hold on power, change Russian life, and give the West fewer options for dealing with him.

Russians will vote on a series of constitutional amendments on Wednesday that would allow Vladimir Putin, whose approval rating has lately been collapsing, to stay in power until 2036.

The new laws would also give the president more authority to set Russia’s foreign policy agenda, extend his power into local affairs, help him block potential political challengers, and allow him to select candidates for ministerial posts — the latter, considered to be a swipe at Russia’s legislative assembly, the Duma. 

The referendum will be an up-or-down vote on 206 amendments rolled into a single package. New versions of the constitution with the amendments in place are already on sale in bookstores.

“Many of the amendments are basically populist slogans,” Vladimir Kara-Murza, an anti-Putin activist, said during a recent broadcast. “It’s not clear what this will mean in terms of implementation and practice,”

They include statements such as the minimum wage should match living standards and people should be able to access healthcare.

A yes vote would enshrine several changes to the office of the president and the process of elections. While the president is the country’s most powerful politician, Russia is still technically a federation with regional centers of authority that operate under Moscow’s central government. Russian dissidents sometimes call it a “managed’ or “guided” democracy.  

Putin, who would have to leave office in 2024 without the proposed changes, has been dissolving checks-and-balances against him since 2003, when he closed TVS, an independent TV channel and ordered the arrest of his primary political opponent, Mikhail Borisovich Khodorkovsky. Russian parliamentary elections have since been increasingly corrupt, according to international observers.

“In a European country, in the 21st century, one man wants to stay in power for 36 years. That is the real reason for all of these shenanigans,” said Kara-Murza.

The referendum could also affect how Washington deals with Moscow. One amendment gives Russian leaders the option to ignore decisions and rulings from international bodies, such as the European Court of Human Rights, according to Maria Snegovaya, a fellow with the Center for European Analysis. That will make it harder for the United States and allies to use international bodies to pressure the Russian government to adhere to international law. 

The new amendments also will result in “even less federalism” in Russia, she said. Putin will have additional powers to not just appoint judges to the Constitutional Court but also throw them out, and oversee [local] appointments of regional prosecutors and gain more control over municipal governance. 

Snegovaya briefed congressional staffers privately on the referendum on Monday.

Russia’s referendum also notably bans from running for office those individuals who have spent a significant amount of time abroad as a dual resident or a permanent resident of another country or who hold money in foreign bank accounts. That could mean that some of the most reform-minded members of Russian society, particularly young people who have seen effective democracies in action elsewhere, won’t be able to enter Russian politics. 

“People who have experience living abroad with other cultures, they are typically much more politically active. That’s because they’ve had different experiences and are trying to change Russia accordingly,” Snegovaya said. The effect of the amendment will be “to insulate the political system even more.”

The referendum comes at a time when Putin is more unpopular than ever, even in unreliable Russian polls.

“Elections would be a particular problem, since there are only so many votes that you can falsify. You can’t falsify everything especially in the cities where they have established a relatively good monitoring system.”  

 
How America Helped Make Vladimir Putin Dictator for Life

Did the U.S. choose to ignore the source of 1999 bombings that propelled the security-agency bureaucrat to the top post he has never relinquished?

It is impossible to evaluate events in Russia today without understanding the mysterious series of bombings in 1999 that killed 300 civilians and created the conditions for Vladimir Putin to become Russia’s dictator for life.

The bombings changed the course of Russia’s post-Soviet history. They were blamed on the Chechens, who denied involvement. In the wake of initial success, Russia launched a new invasion of Chechnya. Putin, who had just been appointed prime minister, was put in charge of the invasion and his popularity soared. Six months later, he was elected president.

On July 14, 2016, I filed a request for documents on the bombings from the State Department, the CIA and the FBI under the Freedom of Information Act. I wanted to know whether the U.S. had information to support the view—which is widespread in Russia—that the Russian authorities themselves blew up the bombings in order to bring Putin to power. The responses I received showed that the United States had considerable evidence that the Russian authorities were responsible for the bombings, but chose to ignore it.

The bombings have influenced U.S.-Russian relations to this day. The policy of self-censorship in the case of the bombings has been applied to every one of the Putin era crimes in which there was evidence that the real author was the regime. The 1999 apartment bombings were followed by the 2002 Dubrovka Theater hostage siege, the 2004 Beslan school massacre, the murder of former Federal Security Service (FSB) agent Alexander Litvinenko in London and the murders of investigative journalist Anna Politkovskaya and opposition leader Boris Nemtsov in Moscow. In each instance, U.S. policy was to ignore the evidence of official involvement and move on. It was this that made possible the Obama “reset” policy and helps to explain why President Donald Trump, as a candidate, questioned Putin’s responsibility for the murder of journalists and oppositionists and later, as president, justified Russian crimes with the statement, “We kill people too.”

One of the things I wanted to learn as a result of my FOIA requests was the U.S. assessment of who was responsible for the bombings. The State Department provided six documents but nothing about an assessment. I made a renewed request, and March 22, the State Department responded that documents concerning the U.S. assessment of the bombings would remain secret. The CIA refused to produce any documents and the FBI produced nothing that was not publicly known.

In a draft Vaughn index, a document used to justify withholdings in FOIA cases, the State Department said the release of that information had “the potential to inject friction into or cause serious damage” to the relationship with the Russian government which was “vital to U.S. national security.” The response did not mean that it was the assessment that would “inject friction.” The assessment may have been withheld because it would incidentally reveal “sources and methods.” It is the former possibility, however, that is consistent with the attitude that has characterized U.S. behavior in regard to the bombings ever since they occurred. This silence, in turn, has had consequences for the whole fabric of U.S.–Russian relations. By not raising the most important issues, the Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Trump administrations have allowed Russia to present a false image of itself which, over time, we ourselves have come to believe, undercutting belated efforts to object to Russian crimes and making us vulnerable to Russian manipulation.

***

The 1999 bombings were fortuitous for Yeltsin and his corrupt entourage. They shifted the attention of the country from Yeltsin’s corruption to the Chechens, a very convenient enemy. After Putin’s election as President, Yeltsin was pardoned for all crimes committed while in office and the issue of the criminal privatization of property under Yeltsin was quietly dropped.

But there would have been few questions about the role of the bombings in Putin’s rise to power if it had not been for a fifth bomb discovered on Sept. 22, 1999, in the basement of a building in Ryazan, southeast of Moscow and quickly deactivated. The bomb tested positive for hexogen, the explosive used in the four previous blasts and had a live detonator. The building was evacuated and Ryazan was cordoned off. On Sept. 24, the bombers were arrested. They turned out to be not Chechen terrorists but agents of the FSB.

The arrest of the agents, who produced FSB identification and were quickly released on orders of the FSB in Moscow, required an explanation. Nikolai Patrushev, who had replaced Putin as FSB director, announced on national television that the bomb was a fake and what had occurred was not an attempted terrorist act but a training exercise. He congratulated the people of Ryazan on their vigilance.

From the beginning, the explanation that the Ryazan bomb was part of a training exercise made little sense. When I went to Ryazan in April 2000, residents of the targeted building said it would have been “idiotic” to test them for vigilance after the bombings of four apartment buildings had already plunged Russia into a state of terror.

Dmitri Florin, a former Ryazan policeman, who was on duty that night, published a memoir in Live Journal, a Russian social media site, in which he made clear that the Russian authorities were lying when they said that the incident was a training exercise. The panic and chaos that he witnessed first-hand were consistent with only one thing—an attempt to blow up a fifth building. Almost immediately after the discovery of the bomb and the positive test for hexogen, Florin wrote, the police in Ryazan were issued bulletproof vests and automatic weapons and ordered to remain on the street without a break. Central police headquarters in Ryazan, which had been nearly empty, began to resemble a wartime military staff. In the words of one policeman quoted by Florin, “it was as if the city had been hit by an atomic bomb.” The entire leadership of the Ryazan police arrived and orders were issued in an endless stream over the radio.

In Russia, the law on civil defense requires that exercises in a residential area include a plan that is confirmed in advance with the local authorities. In Ryazan, not a single local government agency was aware of the intention to hold an “exercise.” For two days, the local authorities, including the local branch of the FSB were convinced that they were dealing with an attempted terrorist attack. Every policeman was handed a composite sketch of two of the three suspects based on the descriptions provided by residents of the building who saw persons carrying sacks into the basement. The following day, the sketches appeared in every store window in the city.

It was particularly significant that the local FSB was not informed of an exercise. If this was really an exercise, local FSB agents believing that they were searching for genuine “terrorists” could have easily shot the FSB agents who were carrying out the so called “exercise” unaware that they were part of the same organization.

Meanwhile, the official Russian media, including the Kremlin news service, ITAR-TASS for two days (Sept. 23-24) announced the news that “with the help of the citizens,” Russia had prevented a new terrorist attack. On the morning of Sept. 24, the Russian air force began the bombing of Grozny, ostensibly to destroy terrorist bases. Putin, who was in Kazakhstan on a state visit, confirmed there was an attempted attack. That same day, Vladimir Rushailo, the minister of internal affairs, told a meeting of the ministry’s organized crime unit that a terrorist act had been averted. At midday on Sept. 24, however, the three FSB agents were arrested and identified. It was now necessary urgently to change the story of an attempted terrorist attack. Nikolai Patrushev, the head of the FSB, went on television and explained that the bomb was a dummy and what had taken place was a test of vigilance by the FSB.

***

Despite its absurdity, very few persons were willing to challenge the FSB version of events. This was critical because if the FSB had put a live bomb containing hexogen in the basement of the building at 14-16 Novoselov Street in Ryazan, they were almost certainly responsible for the four bombs that did go off in Buinaksk, Moscow, and Volgodonsk, which also contained hexogen.

A few brave individuals did try to investigate the Ryazan incident. When the State Duma, which was controlled by the regime, voted three times against opening an inquiry into the incident, an independent social commission was created that included several deputies, among them, Sergei Yushchenkov and Yuri Shchekochikhin, an investigative journalist with the independent newspaper, Novaya Gazeta. Yushchenkov was shot dead outside his apartment building on April 17, 2003. Shchekochikhin was poisoned in July 2003. Litvinenko and Politkovskaya also investigated the bombings only to be killed. In the wake of these murders, a curtain of fear descended in Russia over the issue of how Putin came to power.

The United States did not face these pressures but showed no inclination to raise the many disturbing questions about the apartment bombings and the Ryazan incident. On Feb. 8, 2000, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright in response to a question from Sen. Jesse Helms (R-N.C.), as to whether there was any evidence linking the bombings to Chechnya, replied, “We have not seen evidence linking the bombings to Chechnya.” When she was asked, “Do you believe the Russian government is justified when it accuses Chechen groups as responsible for the bombings?” Albright refused to respond. “The investigation into the bombings is ongoing,” she said. This response was given more than four months after FSB agents were arrested for placing the bomb in Ryazan. Albright then added helpfully that “acts of terror have no place in a democratic society.”

In fact, the documents that I obtained under the FOIA show that, from the beginning, the State Department was not ready to view the information it had about the bombings objectively. In a report issued Sept. 16, after the fourth apartment bombing in Volgodonsk, the State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) reported that Putin on Sept. 14 had described Chechnya as “an enormous terrorist camp.” It referred to accusations in the newspaper Moskovskiy Komsomolets that the government itself was responsible for the bombings by saying, “key political groups have not hesitated to try to exploit the situation for their own political ends.” It described the newspaper as “Luzhkov sponsored” [Yuri Luzhkov, the mayor of Moscow, was Yeltsin’s leading political rival] and wrote, “Most observers publicly support the government’s claim.”

But Moskovskiy Komsomolets, at the time, had a reputation for independence and integrity. In his 2012 book, The Moscow Bombings of 1999, John Dunlop, a fellow at the Hoover Institution, wrote that in 1999, Moskovskiy Komsomolets had “a stable of well-informed, high-octane investigative journalists” and did the “heavy lifting” in investigating the bombings before being joined by other leading newspapers such as Nezavisimaya Gazeta and Obshchaya Gazeta. On Sep. 15, Moskovskiy Komsomolets in one of the reports that the State Department dismissed said, “a tentative conclusion [reached by independent investigators] was that the Chechen mujahedin had no relationship to the terror acts in the capital… The terrorist acts … were, with almost 100 per cent certainty, carried out by professionals.”

The U.S. unwillingness to raise the subject of the bombings continued even as suspicions about the FSB’s role began to surface in the State Department’s own reporting. In a cable from the Moscow embassy, an embassy political officer reported that a former Russian intelligence officer, apparently one of the embassy’s principal informants, said that the real story about the Ryazan incident could never be known because it “would destroy the country.” The informant said the FSB had “a specially trained team of men” whose mission was “to carry out this type of urban warfare” and Viktor Cherkesov, the FSB’s first deputy director and an interrogator of Soviet dissidents was “exactly the right person to order and carry out such actions.”

The political officer reported that another source, a person close to the Russian communist party whose candidate Gennady Zyuganov was defeated by Putin in the March, 2000 Presidential election said that he believed Ryazan raised serious questions about “the conduct of the security services and the source of last year’s apartment bombings.” He said that the communist party was reluctant to pursue the matter for fear of being “tarred as ‘unpatriotic’ if it makes public accusations against the security services.” The political officer reported that his other sources, described as “observers of the Moscow political scene” also expressed doubts about the official version of the Ryazan incident

The United States was also aware of other evidence that the apartment bombings were a false flag attack. On September 13, 1999, Gennady Seleznev, the speaker of the Duma and a person close to Putin, announced that a building in Volgodonsk had been bombed. On the day of his announcement, a building was bombed but in Moscow, on Kashirskoye Highway. The building in Volgodonsk was not blown up until Sept. 16 , three days later. Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, took to the podium of the Duma on Sept. 17 and said, “Do you see what is happening in this country? You say an apartment building was blown up on Monday and it explodes on Thursday. This can be evaluated as a provocation.” When Zhirinovsky continued to demand an explanation, his microphone was cut off.

In the face of this kind of evidence, the United States should at least have asked publicly for an explanation of the inconsistencies in the Russian official account. But that was apparently not what US policymakers wanted. In subsequent years, U.S. government Russia specialists, when asked about the bombings, quickly changed the subject. Academics and journalists, concerned about visas and access, also found it easier to write about Russia without discussing how Putin came to power.

***

The world never really forgot the apartment bombings. On Sept. 24, 2014, the youth wing of the opposition Yabloko party held a conference in Moscow to mark the 15th anniversary of the Ryazan incident. During the 2011-12 anti-Putin demonstrations, signs appeared referring to “Ryazan sugar.” [The Russian authorities claimed that the Ryazan bomb, which was quickly removed by the FSB, was made of sugar.] The tolerated Russian opposition press avoids the subject but the bombings are still discussed in detail on banned opposition sites such as Kasparov.ru.

In 2015, PBS released a Frontline documentary on Putin titled “Putin’s Way,” in which I was interviewed at length about the bombings. It was the first time, outside of my own writing, that a mainstream media outlet had accepted the explanation that the FSB had carried out the attacks. Two important books also appeared supporting the idea that Putin came to power through an act of terror. These are Dunlop’s book and Karen Dawisha’s “Putin’s Kleptocracy.” After I was expelled from Russia in December 2013, I wrote a new book, “The Less You Know, the Better You Sleep: Russia’s Road to Terror and Dictatorship under Yeltsin and Putin,” which includes a detailed discussion of the history and significance of the apartment bombings.

On Jan. 11, 2017, Senator Marco Rubio (R-Florida), raised the issue of the bombings explicitly during the confirmation hearings for secretary of state designate Rex Tillerson. Only John McCain (R-Arizona) had raised the issue previously and he did so in a much more guarded fashion. This was a possible sign that the bombings, ignored for so long, will finally become a subject of serious Western debate.

In fact, the West cannot afford to ignore such an atrocity, even 18 years after it occurred. The CIA, in response to my request for documents, has said that because of the need to protect “sources and methods” it cannot provide documents or even acknowledge that the apartment bombings were investigated. I believe that the existing evidence establishes the guilt of the FSB in blowing up the buildings beyond a reasonable doubt even without further confirmation. But documents in CIA and State Department files that include assessments of the 1999 events and the information on which they are based have the potential to make this guilt even more convincing.

If Russia’s rulers committed terrorist acts against their own people in order to come to power, it means that they differ little from those who place car bombs in crowded markets in order to polarize Shiites and Sunnis. I think it is obvious that such people cannot be reliable partners in the war on terror.

At the same time, a thorough examination of the bombings is necessary because it has the potential to blunt and perhaps put an end to the Russian propaganda assault against the West. Even the most deluded citizen of a Western country would be sobered by the awareness that the authors of that propaganda are capable of crimes far beyond anything with which they accuse the West. Needless to say, all talk of Putin as a defender of traditional moral values which is popular in some conservative circles, would, under these circumstances, come to an end.

Perhaps most important, the truth about Russia’s post-Soviet history could lay the foundation for an eventual genuine U.S.–Russia rapprochement to replace the self-deluding “resets” that appear to be so temptating for American Presidents. Russians, meanwhile, need to understand their own history. Facing the reality of Putin’s path to power may show Russians more powerfully than any Western propaganda ever could, the terrible cost of subservience to the state and the state’s disregard for human life.
 
Alexei Navalny has been poisoned and has been hospitalized.

Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny is unconscious in hospital suffering from suspected poisoning, his spokeswoman has said.

The anti-corruption campaigner fell ill during a flight and the plane made an emergency landing in Omsk, Kira Yarmysh said, adding that they suspected something had been mixed into his tea.

...

Kira Yarmysh, the press secretary for the Anti-Corruption Foundation, which Mr Navalny founded in 2011, tweeted: "This morning Navalny was returning to Moscow from Tomsk.

"During the flight, he felt ill. The plane made an urgent landing in Omsk. Alexei has toxic poisoning."

She added: "We suspect that Alexei was poisoned by something mixed into [his] tea. It was the only thing he drank since morning.

"Doctors are saying that the toxic agent absorbed faster through the hot liquid. Right now Alexei is unconscious."

Ms Yarmysh later tweeted that Mr Navalny was on a ventilator and in a coma, and that the hospital was now full of police officers. She said they had later asked to search his belongings.

She also said that doctors were initially ready to share any information but then they later claimed the toxicology tests had been delayed and were "clearly playing for time, and not saying what they know".

She said in a tweet at 14:58 local time (08:58 GMT) that Mr Navalny's condition had not changed and he was still unconscious.

She was told the diagnosis would be "towards evening".

Both Mr Navalny's wife, Yulia Navalnaya and doctor, Anastasia Vasiliyeva, had arrived at the hospital but were being denied access to him, Ms Yarmysh said. ...

 
Ex-Green Beret Charged With Spying for Russia in Elaborate Scheme

*************************

Prosecutors said he provided classified information to Russian intelligence operatives for years, betraying the United States.

WASHINGTON — A former Army Green Beret captain was accused on Friday of violating espionage laws after federal investigators said they uncovered evidence he joined the military at the behest of Russian intelligence operatives and had betrayed the United States for years.

The suspect, Peter Rafael Dzibinski Debbins, 45, of Gainesville, Va., was arrested on a conspiracy charge of providing national defense information to Russia in an elaborate spying operation that appeared to begin in 1996, prosecutors said. He turned over sensitive military information and the names of fellow service members so Russia could try to recruit them, complained that the United States was too dominant in the world and accepted money and gifts including liquor and a Russian military uniform.

Mr. Debbins is the second former government official in recent days to be charged with espionage. A former C.I.A. officer who went on to work on contract as an F.B.I. translator, Alexander Yuk Ching Ma, was arrested last week on charges of giving classified information to the Chinese government.

Mr. Debbins, who once held top security clearances, was scheduled to appear in federal court in Alexandria, Va., on Monday. It was not clear whether he had a lawyer.

The extraordinary level of detail in the indictment suggested that the Justice Department and F.B.I. might be relying on a cooperator or defector who had access to the sensitive, if dated, Russian information and was willing to testify. In a news release, the American authorities thanked Britain’s law enforcement officials and its domestic spy agency, MI-5, suggesting the country also played a role in making the case.

“The facts alleged in this case are a shocking betrayal by a former Army officer of his fellow soldiers and his country,” said Alan E. Kohler Jr., the assistant director of the F.B.I.’s counterintelligence division.

*************************

 
I feel bad for Putin...his usefulness is now gone...he's going to be like one of those aging Hollywood starlets...his light shined bright for a brief period of time but then was kicked to the curb for someone else...the thing I don't understand is why he got lazy...the guy just gave non-stop effort in 2016 but disappeared in 2020...hope everything is OK with his personal life.

 
I feel bad for Putin...his usefulness is now gone...he's going to be like one of those aging Hollywood starlets...his light shined bright for a brief period of time but then was kicked to the curb for someone else...the thing I don't understand is why he got lazy...the guy just gave non-stop effort in 2016 but disappeared in 2020...hope everything is OK with his personal life.
Well now we've got prez Robinette and China......this should be fun

 
Well now we've got prez Robinette and China......this should be fun
Nothing to see here...let's move along...all clear...no chance Hunter did anything wrong...zero doubt in my mind he would have been appointed to these boards and got these big salaries regardless of who his dad is...he was very obviously qualified for these positions....the want ads were very clear they wanted someone who received an administrative dis-charged from the Navy with a drug problem and had no experience in the field...just a right place at the right time type of thing.

 
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I feel bad for Putin...his usefulness is now gone...he's going to be like one of those aging Hollywood starlets...his light shined bright for a brief period of time but then was kicked to the curb for someone else...the thing I don't understand is why he got lazy...the guy just gave non-stop effort in 2016 but disappeared in 2020...hope everything is OK with his personal life.
Don’t know why but this reminded me of the introduction of Scott Evil. Maybe Vlad is just struggling to reconnect with his family. 

 
Don’t know why but this reminded me of the introduction of Scott Evil. Maybe Vlad is just struggling to reconnect with his family. 
A kinder, gentler Vladimir Putin...maybe it's true, it has been about two weeks since he poisoned one of his political enemies.

 
Surprised there isn't more chatter around here about the latest in Ukraine and the Russian buildup near the border. 

What the ultimate goal might be (pressuring the Ukrainian government, testing the Biden admin, actual preparation for offensive operations, etc) isn't entirely clear. The belief appears to be to test Biden and to pressure Zelensky, but they keep moving tons of firepower there. The US might send warships to the Black Sea (not unusual, but given the circumstances, clearly in response to what's going on).

"There has not been such a concentration of Russian troops near the borders of Ukraine since 2015» — Conflict Intelligence Team"

"Ukraine urges Nato to hasten membership as Russian troops gather | Ukraine | The Guardian"

Thread:

https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1379792999165595653

Something to monitor. 

 

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