Oh, and opening as favorites against them in their house has to ruffle their feathers a bit
This is insane. SF is definitely capable of winning but the Eagles are the best team in football. And the possibility of rain plays into their favor as well.
All about timing/schedule. The Eagles schedule is......I hesitate to use the word unfair in another teams thread, but I've never seen one like it. And I don't mean the quality of opponents
Care to elaborate? I know SF got a very short end of the stick facing rested opponents this year (although it's overblown).
Got KC off their bye (no advantage/disadvantage when most get at least one in season game with significantly more rest) on a Monday, so next opponent (Buffalo) gets extra prep time. Get SF next, when SF played on a Thursday, so SF gets extra time. Then Dallas has a Thursday game...guess who their next opponent is? IN all it's not just 6 straight games against playoff teams, but four of those teams come into the game with extra rest. It's a bit over the top.
These things generally balance out for teams. Play a couple games where the opponent gets extra, play a game or three where you get extra. It was far from balanced for the Eagles this year
The 49ers got it even worse when it comes to rest disadvantage than the Eagles did this season. And it hurt us during out 3 game skid (CLE and CIN both had rest advantages, and we didn't have Williams and Deebo. It was too much to overcome I guess). Anyway, it's a valid argument and it does effect teams.
NFL rest edge, which teams are helped & hurt the most by 2023 NFL schedule, betting importance of rest edges, Colts, Commanders, Browns, 49ers, Chiefs, Eagles
www.sharpfootballanalysis.com
Why Does Rest Disparity Matter?
Net rest is the extra number of rest days a team has over their opponent per game, summed over the course of the season.
Last year, three teams had net rest edges of negative-10 days or worse: Packers (-12), Patriots (-10), and Texans (-10). All three fell below their expected win total.
The two teams with the best net rest edges last year, the Bills (+12) and Lions (+11), went over their win totals.
It is even more valuable later in the season.
Since 2015, teams with a three or more day rest advantage from Week 13 onward have won 55.2% of their games and have covered the spread in 55.7% of games over a 106-game sample.
Which NFL team has the worst rest edge in 2023?
The
San Francisco 49ers have the worst rest edge for the 2023 NFL season.
The 49ers have
20 fewer days of rest than their opponents.
Which NFL team was hurt the most by the 2023 schedule?
The
Chiefs were hurt the most by the 2023 NFL schedule when considering every rest and prep variable.
The
49ers,
Eagles,
Vikings, and
Giants round out the top five teams hurt the most by the 2023 NFL schedule.
In total, the 49ers play five games with a rest disadvantage, and the total days of rest disadvantage they have in those games is 26 days.
They get two games with rest advantage: Week 4 vs the Cardinals, and Week 13 @ the Eagles features an extra three days of rest and prep as the 49ers play Thanksgiving night in Week 12.
The Eagles have a negative-six-day net rest edge, tied for sixth-worst in the NFL. They have only one game that features more rest than their opponent, and it is extremely early in the season.
Additionally, there is a three-week span, from Week 12 through Week 14, that the Eagles will play with a rest disadvantage. And all three games are against powerhouses.
www.pro-football-reference.com
