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Saquon Barkley (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter FFballer
- Start date
El Floppo
Footballguy
Binky The Doormat
Footballguy
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
OMG I have been waiting two years to find out if you made this trade and how your season turned out! I can't believe nobody bumped this until now!
Desert_Power
Footballguy
We are going to need to see Saquon’s rooster
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I am guessing the benches are deep in his league
shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
I can't even tag this guy.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
This thread was his final peak.
dino259
Footballguy
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Happens with age - don’t feel bad.
@GregoryLKellogg
Footballguy
I wrote an article following the 2021 season that detailed the Curse of 370.
Many folks scoffed at the possibility that there could even be something like a curse in football.
Call it wear and tear. Call it bad luck. Call it whatever you like.
So let’s recap. Going back to 2012, 14 players have topped 370 touched, including two in both the 221 and 2022 seasons. The previous 10 all dropped in production.
23-year old Zeke Elliott only dropped 5%.
But the rest averaged a 65% drop in production with a range of 32-100%.
The last four players to tempt the Curse were Jonathan Taylor at 22 years of age and Najee Harris who was 23 during the 2021 season. And in 2022, a 24-year old Josh Jacobs and 28-year old Derrick Henry tempted fate.
So how did they do?
2021 Taylor turned 372 touches into 373.1 fantasy points. His cursed season resulted in six missed games and a 39% drop in points to 146.4 points.
Harris converted 381 touches into 300.7 points. His cursed season ended with a 25.5% drop to 223.9 points. Harris played in all 17 games.
Then in 2022, Jacobs converted 393 touches into 328.3 points. Last year Jacobs missed four games and dropped 44.7% in fantasy production to 181.1 points.
Henry converted 382 touches to 302.8 points. Proving that even the King isn’t curse proof, he dropped 18.5% to 246.7 points last season. Henry played in all 17 games and his drop was the second smallest over the past 12 years.
In 2023, Christian McCaffrey, Rachaad White and Travis Etienne paced the league in touches. The good news is that none of them topped 340, much less the 370 total that results in the curse. So while we don’t have any cursed RBs going into 2024, it would be wise to keep this in mind should someone like Bijan Robinson experience a major increase in usage this season.
In short - I am not drafting Saquon Barkley this season. If he dropped to the third round, I would consider it but he is NOT dropping. Not even to the second round. But what about you? Do you believe in the Curse or are you tempting fate?
Many folks scoffed at the possibility that there could even be something like a curse in football.
Call it wear and tear. Call it bad luck. Call it whatever you like.
So let’s recap. Going back to 2012, 14 players have topped 370 touched, including two in both the 221 and 2022 seasons. The previous 10 all dropped in production.
23-year old Zeke Elliott only dropped 5%.
But the rest averaged a 65% drop in production with a range of 32-100%.
The last four players to tempt the Curse were Jonathan Taylor at 22 years of age and Najee Harris who was 23 during the 2021 season. And in 2022, a 24-year old Josh Jacobs and 28-year old Derrick Henry tempted fate.
So how did they do?
2021 Taylor turned 372 touches into 373.1 fantasy points. His cursed season resulted in six missed games and a 39% drop in points to 146.4 points.
Harris converted 381 touches into 300.7 points. His cursed season ended with a 25.5% drop to 223.9 points. Harris played in all 17 games.
Then in 2022, Jacobs converted 393 touches into 328.3 points. Last year Jacobs missed four games and dropped 44.7% in fantasy production to 181.1 points.
Henry converted 382 touches to 302.8 points. Proving that even the King isn’t curse proof, he dropped 18.5% to 246.7 points last season. Henry played in all 17 games and his drop was the second smallest over the past 12 years.
In 2023, Christian McCaffrey, Rachaad White and Travis Etienne paced the league in touches. The good news is that none of them topped 340, much less the 370 total that results in the curse. So while we don’t have any cursed RBs going into 2024, it would be wise to keep this in mind should someone like Bijan Robinson experience a major increase in usage this season.
In short - I am not drafting Saquon Barkley this season. If he dropped to the third round, I would consider it but he is NOT dropping. Not even to the second round. But what about you? Do you believe in the Curse or are you tempting fate?
@GregoryLKellogg
Footballguy
The Curse has been talked about for about 30 years but some folks are new and others have short memories. Aaron Schatz wrote about it first. I took his study, which was carries based, and modified it to include receptions in the 90’s. But people still seem surprised whenever it’s brought up.
rockaction
Footballguy
I think you’ve given it a bit of a twist. I thought it was usually used w/r/t injuries rather than production. So it’s cool that you did that, but I’m not exactly sure I’m buying it due to sample size and post hoc ergo propter hoc argumentation.
El Floppo
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Flop?
SWC
Bromigo
one time i was sort of feeling crummy and i hoced up an ergo loogie and then i felt better take that to the bank broloogo
El Floppo
Footballguy
Rock? What ..am I speaking Latin?
rockaction
Footballguy
Post hoc ergo propter hoc is a logical fallacy that follows the form of an argument that attempts to claim “after this, therefore because of this”
@GregoryLKellogg
Footballguy
I’ve always tried to keep things simple. I just look at the fantasy points aspect because when it comes down to it, that’s all you really care about when you’re Draft employers. I don’t care if a player gets more carries, gets more yards, or gets more touchdowns. I just care if it all adds up to more or less fantasy points
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, I thought that was ingenious but then instead of being able to really allow the recipient of the information to draw the natural conclusion of overworked player gets injured you posit a much more tepid result (ineffectiveness in comparison). I think you lose something in the sample size and the logic that way because (however fallacious this may seem) it’s not as drastic a result nor as ironclad a causative reason.
El Floppo
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I am a big Saquon fan but I think 13 of 14 players having at least a 30% drop in production the following season is noteworthy, and a conclusion that basically writes itself.
Now granted, that's usually a 30% drop from a very high number (which is why they got 370 carries in the first place). For Saquon that would be 248 fantasy points which would still be a low RB1 or high RB2. But if we were to take the findings to heart that would represent a ceiling, not a floor.
Then compare that to rookie RBs drafted in the top 10 over the last 15 years being 7 for 7 on exceeding 248 fantasy points, which to the opposite, would represent a floor rather than a ceiling.
Then you can use that to compare someone like Jeanty to Barkley, whom are going in the same general vicinity in redrafts (typically with Barkley ahead).
Obviously, the major flaw in all of this is the small sample size, and I think that's what everyone needs to weigh to their tolerances. But while we're not talking about a sample size of 100 here, we're also not talking about a sample size of two. 21 samples between the two combined is a reasonably noteworthy number given how absurdly lopsided the results of those are. If it were 60% tilted one way or the other I think that would be close enough that the small sample basically makes that irrelevant. But 95%? That's more noteworthy even with a sample size of 21, especially when those results are in favor of some very logical hypothesis' (guys underperform after taking lots of hits, rookies drafted in the top 10 have to be really good to be drafted that high and that amount of capital means their coaches want to use them a lot).
Edit to better fit the thread: Jeanty to the moooooooooon, Barkley to the skibbidi toilet. Take that to the bank bropatomaus!
Edit 2: I remain actually pretty high on Barkley so I'm a big fat hypocrit.
Now granted, that's usually a 30% drop from a very high number (which is why they got 370 carries in the first place). For Saquon that would be 248 fantasy points which would still be a low RB1 or high RB2. But if we were to take the findings to heart that would represent a ceiling, not a floor.
Then compare that to rookie RBs drafted in the top 10 over the last 15 years being 7 for 7 on exceeding 248 fantasy points, which to the opposite, would represent a floor rather than a ceiling.
Then you can use that to compare someone like Jeanty to Barkley, whom are going in the same general vicinity in redrafts (typically with Barkley ahead).
Obviously, the major flaw in all of this is the small sample size, and I think that's what everyone needs to weigh to their tolerances. But while we're not talking about a sample size of 100 here, we're also not talking about a sample size of two. 21 samples between the two combined is a reasonably noteworthy number given how absurdly lopsided the results of those are. If it were 60% tilted one way or the other I think that would be close enough that the small sample basically makes that irrelevant. But 95%? That's more noteworthy even with a sample size of 21, especially when those results are in favor of some very logical hypothesis' (guys underperform after taking lots of hits, rookies drafted in the top 10 have to be really good to be drafted that high and that amount of capital means their coaches want to use them a lot).
Edit to better fit the thread: Jeanty to the moooooooooon, Barkley to the skibbidi toilet. Take that to the bank bropatomaus!
Edit 2: I remain actually pretty high on Barkley so I'm a big fat hypocrit.
Last edited:
Psychopav
Help us, Joebi-Wan Brynobi, you're our only ho
Egro, Teddy is not a man.
rockaction
Footballguy
A baloo is a bear (old CT standardized test joke)
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Bear necessities
Tick
Footballguy
Just to explain most of the responses...
This was originally a post that someone put in the wrong forum. This is the free-for-all forum, which is 99% non-fantasy football talk. The Shark Pool is where FF talk goes. Since the original post was in the wrong forum, nobody gave a legit response and it was treated as a fun thread to screw around in. Everyone in here played or still plays FF, but here we talk about other things like movies, cycling, eating competitions, hiding money, etc.
You replied to it 4 years later and most people are responding in the same way. If you want legit discussion, head over to the Shark Pool and post it there.
I'd point you to the Test Forum, but it died a tragic death
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Or PM @shuke for additional detailsJust to explain most of the responses...
This was originally a post that someone put in the wrong forum. This is the free-for-all forum, which is 99% non-fantasy football talk. The Shark Pool is where FF talk goes. Since the original post was in the wrong forum, nobody gave a legit response and it was treated as a fun thread to screw around in. Everyone in here played or still plays FF, but here we talk about other things like movies, cycling, eating competitions, hiding money, etc.
You replied to it 4 years later and most people are responding in the same way. If you want legit discussion, head over to the Shark Pool and post it there.
I'd point you to the Test Forum, but it died a tragic death
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
baller indeed
Chemical X
Footballguy
fun fact: saquon barkley and barclay goodrow are not related.
