Schottenheimer staying on (1 Viewer)

[Gr00vus]

And this is why they won't win in the playoffs next year either:

Marty doesn't think he made any bad decisions on Sunday:

Schottenheimer stands by his game decisions

Fourth-down call, challenge defended

By Jay Posner

UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

January 18, 2007

Given nearly 72 hours to reflect, Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer yesterday said he would not change either of the decisions he made in Sunday's playoff loss to New England that provoked the most discussion among fans and media.

The first was opting to try for a first down on fourth-and-11 at the Patriots 30 rather than have Pro Bowl kicker Nate Kaeding attempt a 48-yard field goal. The second was asking for a replay challenge on Marlon McCree's critical fourth-quarter fumble, even though the move had virtually no chance of succeeding and would cost the Chargers a valuable timeout.

On the field goal, Schottenheimer said the Chargers were “on the cusp” of Kaeding's range going into the wind, but that wasn't his primary motivation. Instead, Schottenheimer said he decided before the game “if we found ourselves in that specific circumstance, we were going to go for it. Because I wanted our players to know we came there to win the game, not to try to play it close.”

Schottenheimer maintained he was not coaching any differently than he did during the regular season, but statistics don't support that point. The Chargers attempted eight fourth-down conversions this season, not counting a muffed snap on a field goal, an intentional safety and a run from punt formation. The average distance the Chargers needed for a first down on those eight plays was just 2.6 yards, with a long of 6. The longest one they converted was 3 yards.

“The important thing to me was that it was early in the ballgame; in other words, whatever happened you had the opportunity to recover from, and then clearly we did throughout the game,” Schottenheimer said. “Ultimately other events occur, and they win the game.”

As for the replay challenge, Schottenheimer said he never thought about the consequences of losing a timeout.

“My sole thinking was this play is of such magnitude that we've got to see if there isn't something there that gives us a chance to have it reversed,” he said. “I didn't think we had much of a chance, but I felt the magnitude of the play was such that it was worth taking a shot. That's what drove that decision.”

Schottenheimer did, however, say McCree made the correct move in catching the ball. Some critics believed because it was fourth down, McCree should have knocked the ball to the ground.

“If it's a play at the end of the game, you think about batting it down,” he said, “but that play, he's looking at a big field-position change, possibly. In that scenario, you would not knock the ball down, but later in the game you certainly would.”

Other topics

Speaking to reporters for the first time since Sunday evening, Schottenheimer discussed several other aspects of the game and its aftermath. A sampling:

On LaDainian Tomlinson touching the ball just nine times in the second half after outgaining the Patriots in the first half: “You can always look back and wonder, well, if you'd have done this or . . . I've always said, when you make those kinds of decisions, you don't have the result at hand. You have to let it play itself out. Some of them work and some of them don't work.”

On trying another play before Kaeding's 54-yard field goal attempt with eight seconds left and no timeouts: “No, I felt that we were at a point there where we had to take it then. You can't expect to get another play off in eight seconds. Generally my number is 14 seconds, that you could run a play and get it off and still afford yourself an opportunity to kick a ball.”

On Eric Parker not playing well: “It was a bad, bad day for the young man. I felt terrible for him. I mean, he's back there returning punts because he's the most sure-handed guy we have.”

On what he told Drayton Florence and Shane Olivea after their personal foul penalties: “Well, I think given the fact that this is an audience of young people, we probably couldn't go to it specifically, but I was very, very upset about it. There's no reason for that. It was very disappointing.”

On Tomlinson's comments regarding the Patriots' postgame celebration: “I'm old school. I don't think there's any place for (what some Patriots did). I've always believed that in victory, leave the defeated with some dignity.”

On why Shawne Merriman's “Lights Out” dance is in a different category: “He didn't go out and do it in the middle of the field. I don't see him doing it on the lightning bolt. And there is an emotion that's a part of the game. But when the game is over, I really don't think that there need be that type of activity.”

This is pretty much the exact opposite of what I wanted to hear from Marty. Not only did he not admit he made mistakes, but he gave miserable reasons to support his stupid decisions. I like you. We'll have sexy time next year, great success!!!

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

But my point remains that Smith has made mistakes but overall has been very good

The only real mistake I think AJ has made so far is extending Jammer's contract. Other than that he's done an incredible job and has been the best GM in the NFL since he took over. It's really that simple, all the facts support that conclusion. I don't think you have a very good read on the Chargers' situation here.

The Jammer extension is fine with me, but Olivea's extension looks bad at this point. Also, he failed to get Kris Dielman extended back when it would have been affordable. (A mistake I hope he doesn't make with Shaun Phillips.)But look at all the great things he did. As soon as he became GM, he got rid of David Boston (after Boston had led the team in receiving the year before), undoing a Butler mistake from one year prior. In hindsight it was the obvious move, but it took major nads at the time.He traded for Keenan McCardell, which worked out well.Then he parlayed the Manning pick into Rivers, Merriman, Kaeding, and Oben. That is huge.He signed Mike Goff and Randall Godfrey as veteran free agents -- very quiet moves that made a big difference -- and made a similar move this year with Marlon McCree.He's avoided spending big money on overpriced free agents that many fans had their eyes on.He locked up young veterans like Tomlinson, Gates, Hardwick, Kaeding, Scifres, Jamal (okay, Jamal isn't young), Wilhelm, and Jammer with long-term cap-friendly contracts.He struck gold with nearly all of his day one draft picks -- McNeil and Cromartie this year; Merriman, Castillo and VJ last year; Rivers, Oshansky, Kaeding, Hardwick before that; and his second-day picks have included Shaun Phillips, Michael Turner, Tim Dobbins, Shane Olivea . . . The Chargers right now have arguably the most talented team in the NFL, arguably the youngest team in the NFL, and they have among the most cap room in the NFL. They ought to be good for a long time.

 

[BoltBacker]

He signed Mike Goff and Randall Godfrey as veteran free agents -- very quiet moves that made a big difference -- and made a similar move this year with Marlon McCree.He's avoided spending big money on overpriced free agents that many fans had their eyes on.

Those are two of the bigger moves nobody mentions and despite the fact they didn't contribute this year the moves to bring in Foley also was working out very well).There's a fine line between avoiding spending big $ on overpriced FA's and missing an opportunity be letting cap dollars go to waste. For the $ KC offered Law I think SD could have afforded him and I'm convinced they would have been a better team this year and certainly a better team in the playoffs with Law on the team.

 

[DPRugby]

And this is why they won't win in the playoffs next year either:

Marty doesn't think he made any bad decisions on Sunday:

Schottenheimer stands by his game decisions

Fourth-down call, challenge defended

By Jay Posner

UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

January 18, 2007

Given nearly 72 hours to reflect, Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer yesterday said he would not change either of the decisions he made in Sunday's playoff loss to New England that provoked the most discussion among fans and media.

The first was opting to try for a first down on fourth-and-11 at the Patriots 30 rather than have Pro Bowl kicker Nate Kaeding attempt a 48-yard field goal. The second was asking for a replay challenge on Marlon McCree's critical fourth-quarter fumble, even though the move had virtually no chance of succeeding and would cost the Chargers a valuable timeout.

On the field goal, Schottenheimer said the Chargers were “on the cusp” of Kaeding's range going into the wind, but that wasn't his primary motivation. Instead, Schottenheimer said he decided before the game “if we found ourselves in that specific circumstance, we were going to go for it. Because I wanted our players to know we came there to win the game, not to try to play it close.”

Schottenheimer maintained he was not coaching any differently than he did during the regular season, but statistics don't support that point. The Chargers attempted eight fourth-down conversions this season, not counting a muffed snap on a field goal, an intentional safety and a run from punt formation. The average distance the Chargers needed for a first down on those eight plays was just 2.6 yards, with a long of 6. The longest one they converted was 3 yards.

“The important thing to me was that it was early in the ballgame; in other words, whatever happened you had the opportunity to recover from, and then clearly we did throughout the game,” Schottenheimer said. “Ultimately other events occur, and they win the game.”

As for the replay challenge, Schottenheimer said he never thought about the consequences of losing a timeout.

“My sole thinking was this play is of such magnitude that we've got to see if there isn't something there that gives us a chance to have it reversed,” he said. “I didn't think we had much of a chance, but I felt the magnitude of the play was such that it was worth taking a shot. That's what drove that decision.”

Schottenheimer did, however, say McCree made the correct move in catching the ball. Some critics believed because it was fourth down, McCree should have knocked the ball to the ground.

“If it's a play at the end of the game, you think about batting it down,” he said, “but that play, he's looking at a big field-position change, possibly. In that scenario, you would not knock the ball down, but later in the game you certainly would.”

Other topics

Speaking to reporters for the first time since Sunday evening, Schottenheimer discussed several other aspects of the game and its aftermath. A sampling:

On LaDainian Tomlinson touching the ball just nine times in the second half after outgaining the Patriots in the first half: “You can always look back and wonder, well, if you'd have done this or . . . I've always said, when you make those kinds of decisions, you don't have the result at hand. You have to let it play itself out. Some of them work and some of them don't work.”

On trying another play before Kaeding's 54-yard field goal attempt with eight seconds left and no timeouts: “No, I felt that we were at a point there where we had to take it then. You can't expect to get another play off in eight seconds. Generally my number is 14 seconds, that you could run a play and get it off and still afford yourself an opportunity to kick a ball.”

On Eric Parker not playing well: “It was a bad, bad day for the young man. I felt terrible for him. I mean, he's back there returning punts because he's the most sure-handed guy we have.”

On what he told Drayton Florence and Shane Olivea after their personal foul penalties: “Well, I think given the fact that this is an audience of young people, we probably couldn't go to it specifically, but I was very, very upset about it. There's no reason for that. It was very disappointing.”

On Tomlinson's comments regarding the Patriots' postgame celebration: “I'm old school. I don't think there's any place for (what some Patriots did). I've always believed that in victory, leave the defeated with some dignity.”

On why Shawne Merriman's “Lights Out” dance is in a different category: “He didn't go out and do it in the middle of the field. I don't see him doing it on the lightning bolt. And there is an emotion that's a part of the game. But when the game is over, I really don't think that there need be that type of activity.”

This is pretty much the exact opposite of what I wanted to hear from Marty. Not only did he not admit he made mistakes, but he gave miserable reasons to support his stupid decisions. I like you. We'll have sexy time next year, great success!!!

Reading this makes me sick to my stomach. Marty doesn't get it and the Boltz will suffer next year because of it.

Spanos, please hire Bill Cowher in 08'!!!!!!

 

[bostonfred]

On trying another play before Kaeding's 54-yard field goal attempt with eight seconds left and no timeouts: “No, I felt that we were at a point there where we had to take it then. You can't expect to get another play off in eight seconds. Generally my number is 14 seconds, that you could run a play and get it off and still afford yourself an opportunity to kick a ball.”

This is a pretty interesting quote. 14 seconds seems high to me, but I can definitely understand it if you're worried about getting tackled in bounds. I think if I were a coach, my number would be higher or lower depending on how long a field goal we were talking about, whether the kick was to win or tie, and whether you were throwing into the end zone or to get into closer field goal distance. I think it's really interesting that he has set it at "generally 14 seconds".

 

[Gr00vus]

On trying another play before Kaeding's 54-yard field goal attempt with eight seconds left and no timeouts: “No, I felt that we were at a point there where we had to take it then. You can't expect to get another play off in eight seconds. Generally my number is 14 seconds, that you could run a play and get it off and still afford yourself an opportunity to kick a ball.”

This is a pretty interesting quote. 14 seconds seems high to me, but I can definitely understand it if you're worried about getting tackled in bounds. I think if I were a coach, my number would be higher or lower depending on how long a field goal we were talking about, whether the kick was to win or tie, and whether you were throwing into the end zone or to get into closer field goal distance. I think it's really interesting that he has set it at "generally 14 seconds".

I felt they should have run another play there. I can understand not doing it though - it's not like the receivers were making plays, so maybe the risks too greatly outweighed the rewards. But considering he didn't kick a field goal on 4th and 11 in the first quarter because he felt they were on the cusp of Kaeding's range, if he were to be consistent he should have tried to get more yards in this situation as well, knowing they were outside Kaeding's range. The whole game was a cluster #### of bad decision making.

 

[parasaurolophus]

On trying another play before Kaeding's 54-yard field goal attempt with eight seconds left and no timeouts: “No, I felt that we were at a point there where we had to take it then. You can't expect to get another play off in eight seconds. Generally my number is 14 seconds, that you could run a play and get it off and still afford yourself an opportunity to kick a ball.”

This is a pretty interesting quote. 14 seconds seems high to me, but I can definitely understand it if you're worried about getting tackled in bounds. I think if I were a coach, my number would be higher or lower depending on how long a field goal we were talking about, whether the kick was to win or tie, and whether you were throwing into the end zone or to get into closer field goal distance. I think it's really interesting that he has set it at "generally 14 seconds".

I too think this philosophy reeks of fear. That is the whole problem with Marty. The guy plays not to lose. Sure he made a bold call in the 1st quarter, but thats the problem. The guy would have never done it in the 4th. Whats the right call in the 1st is the right call in the 4th and vice versa, unless you are losing or can secure a victory by running out the clock. If you were to kick a FG with 13 seconds left, it would mean you were afraid of bad things happening and wouldnt want to lose because you royally screwed up. 8 seconds is an eternity. You can run a 20 yard route up the sideline in 8 seconds. If you are afraid of a sack, you shouldnt be a coach. If you are afraid of an Int, then you need a new QB. You cant be afraid of the bad. As far as his instant replay mistake, it was horrible. Just horrible. He looked desperate. He hitched his timeout to a phantom hope. Coaches always do this. You always hear announcers say "well you have to challenge here, even though he is clearly out of bounds". No you don't. Its either the right call or the wrong call, the magnitude of the play is irrelevant. That play wasnt even close. Not even remotely debatable. If it isnt even close YOU DO NOT CHALLENGE. I dont care how big of a play it is. He basically was saying please God help me out, if this doesnt get overturned, I cant win.

 

[bostonfred]

On trying another play before Kaeding's 54-yard field goal attempt with eight seconds left and no timeouts: “No, I felt that we were at a point there where we had to take it then. You can't expect to get another play off in eight seconds. Generally my number is 14 seconds, that you could run a play and get it off and still afford yourself an opportunity to kick a ball.”

This is a pretty interesting quote. 14 seconds seems high to me, but I can definitely understand it if you're worried about getting tackled in bounds. I think if I were a coach, my number would be higher or lower depending on how long a field goal we were talking about, whether the kick was to win or tie, and whether you were throwing into the end zone or to get into closer field goal distance. I think it's really interesting that he has set it at "generally 14 seconds".

I felt they should have run another play there. I can understand not doing it though - it's not like the receivers were making plays, so maybe the risks too greatly outweighed the rewards. But considering he didn't kick a field goal on 4th and 11 in the first quarter because he felt they were on the cusp of Kaeding's range, if he were to be consistent he should have tried to get more yards in this situation as well, knowing they were outside Kaeding's range. The whole game was a cluster #### of bad decision making.

I think it would have made sense to run another play, hope Rivers can hit the receiver on the sideline, and then kick the shorter field goal. But I should also point out that the 4th and 11 play is different for a lot of reasons. A missed field goal gives the Patriots better field position than an incomplete pass. The Chargers couldn't have tied or won the game with a field goal or touchdown in the first half. If they kick (or punt) the ball, they can still get the ball back. On fourth and 11, they had to try for 11 yards, but they could have thrown short, long, and anywhere on the field, as opposed to a play with eight seconds left and no timeouts where you have to go to the sidelines. And while Rivers had a decent day, you don't know how he (or the receiver) will handle the pressure of making a perfect pass to a place where the Patriots know it's coming when the whole season hangs on this one throw. There are a lot of reasons why you might kick a 54 yarder with eight seconds left, after eschewing a 48 yarder on 4th and 11.

 

[tommyGunZ]

On trying another play before Kaeding's 54-yard field goal attempt with eight seconds left and no timeouts: “No, I felt that we were at a point there where we had to take it then. You can't expect to get another play off in eight seconds. Generally my number is 14 seconds, that you could run a play and get it off and still afford yourself an opportunity to kick a ball.”

This is a pretty interesting quote. 14 seconds seems high to me, but I can definitely understand it if you're worried about getting tackled in bounds. I think if I were a coach, my number would be higher or lower depending on how long a field goal we were talking about, whether the kick was to win or tie, and whether you were throwing into the end zone or to get into closer field goal distance. I think it's really interesting that he has set it at "generally 14 seconds".

I felt they should have run another play there. I can understand not doing it though - it's not like the receivers were making plays, so maybe the risks too greatly outweighed the rewards. But considering he didn't kick a field goal on 4th and 11 in the first quarter because he felt they were on the cusp of Kaeding's range, if he were to be consistent he should have tried to get more yards in this situation as well, knowing they were outside Kaeding's range. The whole game was a cluster #### of bad decision making.

I think it would have made sense to run another play, hope Rivers can hit the receiver on the sideline, and then kick the shorter field goal. But I should also point out that the 4th and 11 play is different for a lot of reasons. A missed field goal gives the Patriots better field position than an incomplete pass. The Chargers couldn't have tied or won the game with a field goal or touchdown in the first half. If they kick (or punt) the ball, they can still get the ball back. On fourth and 11, they had to try for 11 yards, but they could have thrown short, long, and anywhere on the field, as opposed to a play with eight seconds left and no timeouts where you have to go to the sidelines. And while Rivers had a decent day, you don't know how he (or the receiver) will handle the pressure of making a perfect pass to a place where the Patriots know it's coming when the whole season hangs on this one throw. There are a lot of reasons why you might kick a 54 yarder with eight seconds left, after eschewing a 48 yarder on 4th and 11.

I've been chewing on these exact two decisions for a couple days now. 4 and 11, at the NE 31. If you miss the FG, NE gets the ball at the 38. So it was a 7 yard risk for the shot at 3 pts on a 48 yrd FG. My conclusion: TAKE THE RISK EVERY FREAKIN' TIME, KICK THE FG. 8 seconds left, on the NE 37. The choice is a sure shot at a 54 yarder (which Marty obvious has very little confidence in as proved by his 1st quarter decision) or a quick out to VJax or Gates to try and pick up 5-6 yards, and make the FG a more manageable 48-49 yarder. The conclusion is obvious in hindsight, but I think you have to take the risk to try to gain yardage to make the FG more manageable.Or hell - if the safeties and corners completely sell out, send a receiver over the middle and try a deep pass if he can beat coverage and get behind the safety.

 

[Gr00vus]

The Chargers couldn't have tied or won the game with a field goal or touchdown in the first half.

Why, yes, yes they could. That potential 3 points ended up being the margin of loss. You take the points, you ALWAYS take the points in that situation. Let me repeat YOU ALWAYS TAKE THE POINTS in that situation. If you're telling me your kicker can't make that field goal, you're ####ed anyway - get a new kicker. All he did was defer the failure until later in the game when there was more pressure on a guy who missed a kick in a similar situation 2 years ago when Marty also failed to get him a few more yards and improve his chances. And of course they got sacked into the bargain (a very possible outcome on a 4th and 11) which gave the pats even better field position than the missed field goal would have. So in essance he's telling Kaeding, I don't think you can make a 48 yarder in the first quarter - and now that I've given you a vote of no confidence I'm depending on you to make a 54 yarder for the season with 8 seconds left. BRILLIANT COACHING!!!

 

[Pat Patriot]

He was 14-3 this year. It would be insane to fire him. Just don't let him make any decesions in the 4th quarter of playoff games.

Ok, let me get this straight. He cant call plays and he cant make any decisions in the 4th quarter. Why is he coach again and what is he supposed to do during games? Should he even show up or just coach all week and stay home on Sunday?

 

[bostonfred]

On trying another play before Kaeding's 54-yard field goal attempt with eight seconds left and no timeouts: “No, I felt that we were at a point there where we had to take it then. You can't expect to get another play off in eight seconds. Generally my number is 14 seconds, that you could run a play and get it off and still afford yourself an opportunity to kick a ball.”

This is a pretty interesting quote. 14 seconds seems high to me, but I can definitely understand it if you're worried about getting tackled in bounds. I think if I were a coach, my number would be higher or lower depending on how long a field goal we were talking about, whether the kick was to win or tie, and whether you were throwing into the end zone or to get into closer field goal distance. I think it's really interesting that he has set it at "generally 14 seconds".

I felt they should have run another play there. I can understand not doing it though - it's not like the receivers were making plays, so maybe the risks too greatly outweighed the rewards. But considering he didn't kick a field goal on 4th and 11 in the first quarter because he felt they were on the cusp of Kaeding's range, if he were to be consistent he should have tried to get more yards in this situation as well, knowing they were outside Kaeding's range. The whole game was a cluster #### of bad decision making.

I think it would have made sense to run another play, hope Rivers can hit the receiver on the sideline, and then kick the shorter field goal. But I should also point out that the 4th and 11 play is different for a lot of reasons. A missed field goal gives the Patriots better field position than an incomplete pass. The Chargers couldn't have tied or won the game with a field goal or touchdown in the first half. If they kick (or punt) the ball, they can still get the ball back. On fourth and 11, they had to try for 11 yards, but they could have thrown short, long, and anywhere on the field, as opposed to a play with eight seconds left and no timeouts where you have to go to the sidelines. And while Rivers had a decent day, you don't know how he (or the receiver) will handle the pressure of making a perfect pass to a place where the Patriots know it's coming when the whole season hangs on this one throw. There are a lot of reasons why you might kick a 54 yarder with eight seconds left, after eschewing a 48 yarder on 4th and 11.

I've been chewing on these exact two decisions for a couple days now. 4 and 11, at the NE 31. If you miss the FG, NE gets the ball at the 38. So it was a 7 yard risk for the shot at 3 pts on a 48 yrd FG. My conclusion: TAKE THE RISK EVERY FREAKIN' TIME, KICK THE FG. 8 seconds left, on the NE 37. The choice is a sure shot at a 54 yarder (which Marty obvious has very little confidence in as proved by his 1st quarter decision) or a quick out to VJax or Gates to try and pick up 5-6 yards, and make the FG a more manageable 48-49 yarder. The conclusion is obvious in hindsight, but I think you have to take the risk to try to gain yardage to make the FG more manageable.Or hell - if the safeties and corners completely sell out, send a receiver over the middle and try a deep pass if he can beat coverage and get behind the safety.

Let's say there's a 30% chance Kaeding hits a 48 yarder, and a 20% chance he hits a 54 yarder. Let's also say there's a 1 in 3 chance that the Chargers successfully pick up a half dozen yards and get out of bounds in seven seconds or less. In that case, it would make more sense to kick the long field goal (20% chance of converting that one play) than to run the play (10% chance of converting both plays). Now, you can switch up the percentages there however you want; the point is that you can't blame Schottenheimer for going with the play he thought gave his team the best chance to win. 4th and 11 is a little different. I can understand the criticism of him passing up on the kick. But the Chargers already had four plays of 11 yards or more, and if they picked up even a few yards, it was essentially the same as a touchback on a punt. I don't think Schottenheimer was comparing a missed field goal to a sack because I don't think he was expecting Belichick to send Vrabel and Banta-Cain. I think he was comparing it with an interception (basically the same as a punt), a short pass (improves the field position) or an incomplete pass (better than a missed field goal). I'm not saying he HAD to be that aggressive, but it's not a terrible play call. As a side note, in an interesting coincidence, Kaeding had exactly one kick of 48 yards or longer in the 2006 regular season. It was a 54 yarder, and he hit it.

 

[komments]

But my point remains that Smith has made mistakes but overall has been very good

The only real mistake I think AJ has made so far is extending Jammer's contract. Other than that he's done an incredible job and has been the best GM in the NFL since he took over. It's really that simple, all the facts support that conclusion. I don't think you have a very good read on the Chargers' situation here.

Taking Sammy Davis in the first round of the 2003 draft was probably a mistake too. But then, not nearly as bad as Millen taking Rogers with the 1.02 pick in the same draft.

 

[Gr00vus]

On trying another play before Kaeding's 54-yard field goal attempt with eight seconds left and no timeouts: “No, I felt that we were at a point there where we had to take it then. You can't expect to get another play off in eight seconds. Generally my number is 14 seconds, that you could run a play and get it off and still afford yourself an opportunity to kick a ball.”

This is a pretty interesting quote. 14 seconds seems high to me, but I can definitely understand it if you're worried about getting tackled in bounds. I think if I were a coach, my number would be higher or lower depending on how long a field goal we were talking about, whether the kick was to win or tie, and whether you were throwing into the end zone or to get into closer field goal distance. I think it's really interesting that he has set it at "generally 14 seconds".

I felt they should have run another play there. I can understand not doing it though - it's not like the receivers were making plays, so maybe the risks too greatly outweighed the rewards. But considering he didn't kick a field goal on 4th and 11 in the first quarter because he felt they were on the cusp of Kaeding's range, if he were to be consistent he should have tried to get more yards in this situation as well, knowing they were outside Kaeding's range. The whole game was a cluster #### of bad decision making.

I think it would have made sense to run another play, hope Rivers can hit the receiver on the sideline, and then kick the shorter field goal. But I should also point out that the 4th and 11 play is different for a lot of reasons. A missed field goal gives the Patriots better field position than an incomplete pass. The Chargers couldn't have tied or won the game with a field goal or touchdown in the first half. If they kick (or punt) the ball, they can still get the ball back. On fourth and 11, they had to try for 11 yards, but they could have thrown short, long, and anywhere on the field, as opposed to a play with eight seconds left and no timeouts where you have to go to the sidelines. And while Rivers had a decent day, you don't know how he (or the receiver) will handle the pressure of making a perfect pass to a place where the Patriots know it's coming when the whole season hangs on this one throw. There are a lot of reasons why you might kick a 54 yarder with eight seconds left, after eschewing a 48 yarder on 4th and 11.

I've been chewing on these exact two decisions for a couple days now. 4 and 11, at the NE 31. If you miss the FG, NE gets the ball at the 38. So it was a 7 yard risk for the shot at 3 pts on a 48 yrd FG. My conclusion: TAKE THE RISK EVERY FREAKIN' TIME, KICK THE FG.

8 seconds left, on the NE 37. The choice is a sure shot at a 54 yarder (which Marty obvious has very little confidence in as proved by his 1st quarter decision) or a quick out to VJax or Gates to try and pick up 5-6 yards, and make the FG a more manageable 48-49 yarder. The conclusion is obvious in hindsight, but I think you have to take the risk to try to gain yardage to make the FG more manageable.

Or hell - if the safeties and corners completely sell out, send a receiver over the middle and try a deep pass if he can beat coverage and get behind the safety.

Let's say there's a 30% chance Kaeding hits a 48 yarder, and a 20% chance he hits a 54 yarder. Let's also say there's a 1 in 3 chance that the Chargers successfully pick up a half dozen yards and get out of bounds in seven seconds or less. In that case, it would make more sense to kick the long field goal (20% chance of converting that one play) than to run the play (10% chance of converting both plays). Now, you can switch up the percentages there however you want; the point is that you can't blame Schottenheimer for going with the play he thought gave his team the best chance to win. 4th and 11 is a little different. I can understand the criticism of him passing up on the kick. But the Chargers already had four plays of 11 yards or more, and if they picked up even a few yards, it was essentially the same as a touchback on a punt. I don't think Schottenheimer was comparing a missed field goal to a sack because I don't think he was expecting Belichick to send Vrabel and Banta-Cain. I think he was comparing it with an interception (basically the same as a punt), a short pass (improves the field position) or an incomplete pass (better than a missed field goal). I'm not saying he HAD to be that aggressive, but it's not a terrible play call.

As a side note, in an interesting coincidence, Kaeding had exactly one kick of 48 yards or longer in the 2006 regular season. It was a 54 yarder, and he hit it.

Why estimate, here are Kaeding's stats.He's 4-6 from 50+, 20-26 from 40-49 - 75% combined. on 4th and 11 with a 48 yarder you KICK THE FIELD GOAL, the percentages are much higher than picking up 4th and 11. That being said at the end of the game with the season on the line, he doesn't have a strong leg. Everyone who pays attention to the Chargers/Kaeding knows that. Every extra yard you can get him increases his chances. You can pick up 5-10 yards in 5 seconds and get out of bounds - they should have tried getting him closer it at the end of the game, just like in 2004.

And the part I bolded just gives further evidence that Marty just plain got out coached. Why in #### on 4th and 11 would you not expect a blitz knowing the receivers are going to have to run at least 12 yard patterns?

 

[Gr00vus]

But my point remains that Smith has made mistakes but overall has been very good

The only real mistake I think AJ has made so far is extending Jammer's contract. Other than that he's done an incredible job and has been the best GM in the NFL since he took over. It's really that simple, all the facts support that conclusion. I don't think you have a very good read on the Chargers' situation here.

Taking Sammy Davis in the first round of the 2003 draft was probably a mistake too. But then, not nearly as bad as Millen taking Rogers with the 1.02 pick in the same draft.

You're never going to hit on all your picks. I don't consider it a big mistake because early on they recognized Davis wasn't an NFL player and worked to correct the problem. For whatever reason they love Jammer though, that to me is their biggest mistake.

 

[Gr00vus]

BTW keeping Marty is also going to cost the Chargers Cameron, and not only that Cameron will end up HC of another AFC team. And it was pretty much a certainty that Cameron would leave if he wasn't promoted. BRILLIANT!

 

[NinerK]

That extension by the way had a $1 million buyout at the clubs option. Sans a superbowl title he's as good as gone next year, I just hope Bumm's son don't get the job.

This is the heart of the matter right here. The bastages offer him a 1 year extension with a $1 Million club option buy out? Slap in the face. Even if you think he lost the game for you; show him some respect. Go Marty!!!!

 

[parasaurolophus]

the chargers really got stuck between a rock and a hard place on this one. You just don't fire coaches that go 14-2 in the regular season. Even if you know its painfully obvious he cant get it done when it matters for you. The reputation you would earn as an organization would be horrible. Lets not forget that it was only a few years ago that the chargers were just terrible. They have finally kicked that image with 3 years of respectability. Hard to not give Marty a little credit for that.

So basically they are going to have to hope rivers and the rest of teh team improves enough to win in spite of marty. And then Marty can move on and the chargers might be able to win a title.

 

[Gr00vus]

That extension by the way had a $1 million buyout at the clubs option. Sans a superbowl title he's as good as gone next year, I just hope Bumm's son don't get the job.

This is the heart of the matter right here. The bastages offer him a 1 year extension with a $1 Million club option buy out? Slap in the face. Even if you think he lost the game for you; show him some respect. Go Marty!!!!

They showed him enough respect by not firing his ### right now. Of course they'd have a buy out in place so they can have the option of ditching him next year when he chokes again - it just makes sense. If he wants to take it as a slap in the face that's great, but in reality he'd have had to have won at least 1 playoff game to be justified in doing so.

 

[Gr00vus]

So basically they are going to have to hope rivers and the rest of teh team improves enough to win in spite of marty. And then Marty can move on and the chargers might be able to win a title.

I think that's exactly it. I think it's costing them too much to play it that way.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

BTW keeping Marty is also going to cost the Chargers Cameron, and not only that Cameron will end up HC of another AFC team. And it was pretty much a certainty that Cameron would leave if he wasn't promoted. BRILLIANT!

I dont know, living in big 10 country, I know Cam a little, he was an assistant at UofM and head man at Indiana and didn't seem to do much in those positions. The chargers O will be just fine next year whomever runs them next year. Im not sold on Cam as an NFL head coach. Im just worried that after next season that AJ is going to hand the team over to Bumm's son, and Cam >>> Wade. Hopefully if next year ends badly and they dont want to bring Marty back, they go outside the current staff.

 

[Gr00vus]

BTW keeping Marty is also going to cost the Chargers Cameron, and not only that Cameron will end up HC of another AFC team. And it was pretty much a certainty that Cameron would leave if he wasn't promoted. BRILLIANT!

I dont know, living in big 10 country, I know Cam a little, he was an assistant at UofM and head man at Indiana and didn't seem to do much in those positions. The chargers O will be just fine next year whomever runs them next year. Im not sold on Cam as an NFL head coach. Im just worried that after next season that AJ is going to hand the team over to Bumm's son, and Cam >>> Wade. Hopefully if next year ends badly and they dont want to bring Marty back, they go outside the current staff.

I don't know how Cam will do as an HC. I do know how he's done as an OC, and it would take some great fortune for the Chargers not to miss his services in that capacity. I have no idea who will take over that role now. I too don't think Wade will be the answer at HC. When the Chargers go out in their first playoff game next year it will be housecleaning time for the coaching staff, and whoever comes in as HC along with A.J. will put the people they want into place.LaDainian will be 29 years old at that point.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

BTW keeping Marty is also going to cost the Chargers Cameron, and not only that Cameron will end up HC of another AFC team. And it was pretty much a certainty that Cameron would leave if he wasn't promoted. BRILLIANT!

I dont know, living in big 10 country, I know Cam a little, he was an assistant at UofM and head man at Indiana and didn't seem to do much in those positions. The chargers O will be just fine next year whomever runs them next year. Im not sold on Cam as an NFL head coach. Im just worried that after next season that AJ is going to hand the team over to Bumm's son, and Cam >>> Wade. Hopefully if next year ends badly and they dont want to bring Marty back, they go outside the current staff.

I don't know how Cam will do as an HC. I do know how he's done as an OC, and it would take some great fortune for the Chargers not to miss his services in that capacity. I have no idea who will take over that role now. I too don't think Wade will be the answer at HC. When the Chargers go out in their first playoff game next year it will be housecleaning time for the coaching staff, and whoever comes in as HC along with A.J. will put the people they want into place.LaDainian will be 29 years old at that point.

Dan Henning? Marty's boy, Brian? Promote Lofton? . Who knows.I'm not sure Cam is going to work out as a head man. we will see, looks like he's going to Miami

 

[Tau837]

But my point remains that Smith has made mistakes but overall has been very good

The only real mistake I think AJ has made so far is extending Jammer's contract. Other than that he's done an incredible job and has been the best GM in the NFL since he took over. It's really that simple, all the facts support that conclusion. I don't think you have a very good read on the Chargers' situation here.

Taking Sammy Davis in the first round of the 2003 draft was probably a mistake too. But then, not nearly as bad as Millen taking Rogers with the 1.02 pick in the same draft.

What was A.J. doing before he took over as San Diego GM? I don't know the answer. But he took over 4 days before the 2003 draft, so if his prior position wasn't one that would prepare him for the draft, then he deserves a bit more slack with that draft, and his drafts since then have been outstanding.

 

[Air Coryell]

But my point remains that Smith has made mistakes but overall has been very good

The only real mistake I think AJ has made so far is extending Jammer's contract. Other than that he's done an incredible job and has been the best GM in the NFL since he took over. It's really that simple, all the facts support that conclusion. I don't think you have a very good read on the Chargers' situation here.

Taking Sammy Davis in the first round of the 2003 draft was probably a mistake too. But then, not nearly as bad as Millen taking Rogers with the 1.02 pick in the same draft.

What was A.J. doing before he took over as San Diego GM? I don't know the answer. But he took over 4 days before the 2003 draft, so if his prior position wasn't one that would prepare him for the draft, then he deserves a bit more slack with that draft, and his drafts since then have been outstanding.

AJ came over with John Butler in 2001. To my knowledge he was working very closely with John as he was battling cancer and knew that AJ would be taking over

 

[Gr00vus]

But my point remains that Smith has made mistakes but overall has been very good

The only real mistake I think AJ has made so far is extending Jammer's contract. Other than that he's done an incredible job and has been the best GM in the NFL since he took over. It's really that simple, all the facts support that conclusion. I don't think you have a very good read on the Chargers' situation here.

Taking Sammy Davis in the first round of the 2003 draft was probably a mistake too. But then, not nearly as bad as Millen taking Rogers with the 1.02 pick in the same draft.

What was A.J. doing before he took over as San Diego GM? I don't know the answer. But he took over 4 days before the 2003 draft, so if his prior position wasn't one that would prepare him for the draft, then he deserves a bit more slack with that draft, and his drafts since then have been outstanding.

He was assistant to Butler and had a lot to do with player evaluation etc. for the Chargers. See here for full A.J. bio.

 

[Gr00vus]

Oh, yeah, bye bye Cam Cameron. Hello James Lofton or Clarence Shelmon?