I don't think you are missing anything.So FBGs are very high on L Green and essentially projecting he splits the TE stats with A Gates. I haven't read anything in camp reports or see anything in the preseason to suggest Green would over take Gates this season. What am I missing or is FBG making a big leap??
Excellent commentary right here.I see Gronk and Graham in a tier of their own with JT as a distant 3rd. Sorry, I want no part of a TE who only got 90 targets in an offense that had 675 passing attempts last year. Should Green take over as TE1 and become the de facto slot guy for that offense, he has a chance to get 110-130 targets from Rivers who is a very accurate QB. And really, I don't care if he doesn't get 110 on the year, so long as he's getting 7-8 targets a game during the FF playoffs.
Real football is where players are evaluated by professionals during thousands of hours of practice and earn playing time based on how they perform on every play. Fantasy Football is where players are evaluated by writers, bloggers, and well just about anyone - even those that have never watched, participated in or played a down of organized football. Sometimes when the two worlds don't reconcile the results can be confusing - but personally, I tend to trust the judgement of the professionals.Green just needs the targets. Not sure why SD doesn't want to play him full time. He's better than Gates at virtually everything.
Are you saying you'd rather have a "contingency plan"+ L. Green than Julius Thomas?I saw a PFF article stating that Gates was a minus player last year while Green was a plus player. I can't imagine that's going to change this year, although we saw with Woodhead/Mathews that the staff is slow to change their thinking despite obvious disparities in play. The good news is that they finally did, so this is my take:
Draft Green but don't expect to utilize him until the second half of the season. Give yourself a contingency plan for the first 8-10 weeks. OR don't draft him and buy low around week 3 or 4.
Obviously the second strategy banks on SD sticking with the status quo. Should they utilize him early and often, your window of opportunity to grab a top 3 TE just closed. Yes, I think Green as SD's TE1 > JT. I see Gronk and Graham in a tier of their own with JT as a distant 3rd. Sorry, I want no part of a TE who only got 90 targets in an offense that had 675 passing attempts last year. Should Green take over as TE1 and become the de facto slot guy for that offense, he has a chance to get 110-130 targets from Rivers who is a very accurate QB. And really, I don't care if he doesn't get 110 on the year, so long as he's getting 7-8 targets a game during the FF playoffs.
His coach said that not getting him more involved last year was a mistake. And SD only kept 5 WRs. And Green's efficiency stats are ridiculous. Add it all together and...Sometimes when the two worlds don't reconcile the results can be confusing - but personally, I tend to trust the judgement of the professionals.
I'll take it.At footballoutsiders, for all TEs in 2013 Green ranked 8 in DYAR (adjusted yards above replacement), 1 in DVOA (adjusted value per play). Gates was at 18 and 29 respectively. Small sample size with Green of course.
Green is acknowledged as the better blocker by the way.
More Green info and discussion in this thread.
As I said there, if I had to have just one, I'd gamble on Green, hoping his preseason utilization is not representative of their true plans this season. In a must start TE league, I wouldn't want to have to depend solely on either one to start the season. Green could be big time if he got enough targets. Gates' ceiling is probably last year's numbers.
He's not a liability as a blocker. https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/05/29/secret-superstars-2014-chargers/I think we'll see SD run more "two TE" sets, which are actually 3 WRs (Green, Allen, Floyd) and 1 TE (Gates).
Green's probably still a liability blocking in-line or being responsible for a LB. But split him wide and you either get a mismatch in the passing game (if he's covered by a LB or Safety) or a mismatch in the run game (if he's got a DB over him).
But that's still speculative, so it wouldn't surprise me if Green only has 40 catches this year, and it wouldn't surprise me if he has 80.
Yes. Especially when taking draft position into account. If you disagree, please tell me how many targets you think JT will get this year? I think he gets about 6 per game.Are you saying you'd rather have a "contingency plan"+ L. Green than Julius Thomas?I saw a PFF article stating that Gates was a minus player last year while Green was a plus player. I can't imagine that's going to change this year, although we saw with Woodhead/Mathews that the staff is slow to change their thinking despite obvious disparities in play. The good news is that they finally did, so this is my take:
Draft Green but don't expect to utilize him until the second half of the season. Give yourself a contingency plan for the first 8-10 weeks. OR don't draft him and buy low around week 3 or 4.
Obviously the second strategy banks on SD sticking with the status quo. Should they utilize him early and often, your window of opportunity to grab a top 3 TE just closed. Yes, I think Green as SD's TE1 > JT. I see Gronk and Graham in a tier of their own with JT as a distant 3rd. Sorry, I want no part of a TE who only got 90 targets in an offense that had 675 passing attempts last year. Should Green take over as TE1 and become the de facto slot guy for that offense, he has a chance to get 110-130 targets from Rivers who is a very accurate QB. And really, I don't care if he doesn't get 110 on the year, so long as he's getting 7-8 targets a game during the FF playoffs.
Who was he blocking?He's not a liability as a blocker. https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/05/29/secret-superstars-2014-chargers/I think we'll see SD run more "two TE" sets, which are actually 3 WRs (Green, Allen, Floyd) and 1 TE (Gates).
Green's probably still a liability blocking in-line or being responsible for a LB. But split him wide and you either get a mismatch in the passing game (if he's covered by a LB or Safety) or a mismatch in the run game (if he's got a DB over him).
But that's still speculative, so it wouldn't surprise me if Green only has 40 catches this year, and it wouldn't surprise me if he has 80.
I'd probably go 7.5Yes. Especially when taking draft position into account. If you disagree, please tell me how many targets you think JT will get this year? I think he gets about 6 per game.Are you saying you'd rather have a "contingency plan"+ L. Green than Julius Thomas?I saw a PFF article stating that Gates was a minus player last year while Green was a plus player. I can't imagine that's going to change this year, although we saw with Woodhead/Mathews that the staff is slow to change their thinking despite obvious disparities in play. The good news is that they finally did, so this is my take:
Draft Green but don't expect to utilize him until the second half of the season. Give yourself a contingency plan for the first 8-10 weeks. OR don't draft him and buy low around week 3 or 4.
Obviously the second strategy banks on SD sticking with the status quo. Should they utilize him early and often, your window of opportunity to grab a top 3 TE just closed. Yes, I think Green as SD's TE1 > JT. I see Gronk and Graham in a tier of their own with JT as a distant 3rd. Sorry, I want no part of a TE who only got 90 targets in an offense that had 675 passing attempts last year. Should Green take over as TE1 and become the de facto slot guy for that offense, he has a chance to get 110-130 targets from Rivers who is a very accurate QB. And really, I don't care if he doesn't get 110 on the year, so long as he's getting 7-8 targets a game during the FF playoffs.
You'll take it if you can get it - remember I said ceiling, not what I realistically expect. You might want to check the game logs from last year also - past week 5 his production wasn't so hot. You also neglected to post his number of TDs (4). Green outperformed Gates in the postseason as well. Not great trends for Gates.I'll take it.At footballoutsiders, for all TEs in 2013 Green ranked 8 in DYAR (adjusted yards above replacement), 1 in DVOA (adjusted value per play). Gates was at 18 and 29 respectively. Small sample size with Green of course.
Green is acknowledged as the better blocker by the way.
More Green info and discussion in this thread.
As I said there, if I had to have just one, I'd gamble on Green, hoping his preseason utilization is not representative of their true plans this season. In a must start TE league, I wouldn't want to have to depend solely on either one to start the season. Green could be big time if he got enough targets. Gates' ceiling is probably last year's numbers.
2013 Stats:
Gates
113 Targets
77 Receptions
872 Yards
Rec% 68.1
Solid numbers, no question about it and the Chargers are paying him and he's listed #1 on their depth chart so I expect numbers similiar to those which is fine by me.I'll take it.At footballoutsiders, for all TEs in 2013 Green ranked 8 in DYAR (adjusted yards above replacement), 1 in DVOA (adjusted value per play). Gates was at 18 and 29 respectively. Small sample size with Green of course.
Green is acknowledged as the better blocker by the way.
More Green info and discussion in this thread.
As I said there, if I had to have just one, I'd gamble on Green, hoping his preseason utilization is not representative of their true plans this season. In a must start TE league, I wouldn't want to have to depend solely on either one to start the season. Green could be big time if he got enough targets. Gates' ceiling is probably last year's numbers.
2013 Stats:
Gates
113 Targets
77 Receptions
872 Yards
Rec% 68.1
The big question is how much more involved McCoy plans on getting him. If it's heavy involvement as a key target for Rivers, that's one thing, but if it's only a handful of designed plays for Green, that's a big difference in fantasy value.wdcrob said:His coach said that not getting him more involved last year was a mistake. And SD only kept 5 WRs. And Green's efficiency stats are ridiculous. Add it all together and...Sometimes when the two worlds don't reconcile the results can be confusing - but personally, I tend to trust the judgement of the professionals.
That would be a significant uptick from last year. You think they are going to pass more or just target him more? I would feel ok with 7.5 for the 4 weeks that Welker is out, but I don't think he'll get that many during the important games.joffer said:I'd probably go 7.5FF Ninja said:Yes. Especially when taking draft position into account. If you disagree, please tell me how many targets you think JT will get this year? I think he gets about 6 per game.joffer said:Are you saying you'd rather have a "contingency plan"+ L. Green than Julius Thomas?I saw a PFF article stating that Gates was a minus player last year while Green was a plus player. I can't imagine that's going to change this year, although we saw with Woodhead/Mathews that the staff is slow to change their thinking despite obvious disparities in play. The good news is that they finally did, so this is my take:
Draft Green but don't expect to utilize him until the second half of the season. Give yourself a contingency plan for the first 8-10 weeks. OR don't draft him and buy low around week 3 or 4.
Obviously the second strategy banks on SD sticking with the status quo. Should they utilize him early and often, your window of opportunity to grab a top 3 TE just closed. Yes, I think Green as SD's TE1 > JT. I see Gronk and Graham in a tier of their own with JT as a distant 3rd. Sorry, I want no part of a TE who only got 90 targets in an offense that had 675 passing attempts last year. Should Green take over as TE1 and become the de facto slot guy for that offense, he has a chance to get 110-130 targets from Rivers who is a very accurate QB. And really, I don't care if he doesn't get 110 on the year, so long as he's getting 7-8 targets a game during the FF playoffs.
Right... no way to know. Like I said, nothing between 40-80 would surprise me.The big question is how much more involved McCoy plans on getting him. If it's heavy involvement as a key target for Rivers, that's one thing, but if it's only a handful of designed plays for Green, that's a big difference in fantasy value.wdcrob said:His coach said that not getting him more involved last year was a mistake. And SD only kept 5 WRs. And Green's efficiency stats are ridiculous. Add it all together and...Sometimes when the two worlds don't reconcile the results can be confusing - but personally, I tend to trust the judgement of the professionals.
target him more. and I don't consider one more target per game "significant".That would be a significant uptick from last year. You think they are going to pass more or just target him more? I would feel ok with 7.5 for the 4 weeks that Welker is out, but I don't think he'll get that many during the important games.joffer said:I'd probably go 7.5FF Ninja said:Yes. Especially when taking draft position into account. If you disagree, please tell me how many targets you think JT will get this year? I think he gets about 6 per game.joffer said:Are you saying you'd rather have a "contingency plan"+ L. Green than Julius Thomas?I saw a PFF article stating that Gates was a minus player last year while Green was a plus player. I can't imagine that's going to change this year, although we saw with Woodhead/Mathews that the staff is slow to change their thinking despite obvious disparities in play. The good news is that they finally did, so this is my take:
Draft Green but don't expect to utilize him until the second half of the season. Give yourself a contingency plan for the first 8-10 weeks. OR don't draft him and buy low around week 3 or 4.
Obviously the second strategy banks on SD sticking with the status quo. Should they utilize him early and often, your window of opportunity to grab a top 3 TE just closed. Yes, I think Green as SD's TE1 > JT. I see Gronk and Graham in a tier of their own with JT as a distant 3rd. Sorry, I want no part of a TE who only got 90 targets in an offense that had 675 passing attempts last year. Should Green take over as TE1 and become the de facto slot guy for that offense, he has a chance to get 110-130 targets from Rivers who is a very accurate QB. And really, I don't care if he doesn't get 110 on the year, so long as he's getting 7-8 targets a game during the FF playoffs.
Hard to say. Depends whether all those targets that went to Decker go to Sanders for the most part, and how much go to Thomas. That's banking on 675 targets overall though, which is unrealistic.That would be a significant uptick from last year. You think they are going to pass more or just target him more? I would feel ok with 7.5 for the 4 weeks that Welker is out, but I don't think he'll get that many during the important games.joffer said:I'd probably go 7.5FF Ninja said:Yes. Especially when taking draft position into account. If you disagree, please tell me how many targets you think JT will get this year? I think he gets about 6 per game.joffer said:Are you saying you'd rather have a "contingency plan"+ L. Green than Julius Thomas?I saw a PFF article stating that Gates was a minus player last year while Green was a plus player. I can't imagine that's going to change this year, although we saw with Woodhead/Mathews that the staff is slow to change their thinking despite obvious disparities in play. The good news is that they finally did, so this is my take:
Draft Green but don't expect to utilize him until the second half of the season. Give yourself a contingency plan for the first 8-10 weeks. OR don't draft him and buy low around week 3 or 4.
Obviously the second strategy banks on SD sticking with the status quo. Should they utilize him early and often, your window of opportunity to grab a top 3 TE just closed. Yes, I think Green as SD's TE1 > JT. I see Gronk and Graham in a tier of their own with JT as a distant 3rd. Sorry, I want no part of a TE who only got 90 targets in an offense that had 675 passing attempts last year. Should Green take over as TE1 and become the de facto slot guy for that offense, he has a chance to get 110-130 targets from Rivers who is a very accurate QB. And really, I don't care if he doesn't get 110 on the year, so long as he's getting 7-8 targets a game during the FF playoffs.
Assuming redraft I'd drop Stills. I'd take Boykin and Greene ahead of him. Probably keep Kelce and Ertz ahead of him if you're risk averse, drop Ertz first if you're not risk averse.So, if you're a Green owner and you're bullish on him, who is safe to cut in order to keep him? Middling pseudo-lotto tickets like Kenny Stills and Boykin? A bad knee in a good situation like Shonn Greene, perhaps? What about other high upside TEs like Kelce and Ertz? I'm having a difficult time establishing value for him.
Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce and Ladarius Green all fall in that same category of young up-and-coming Dynasty TE prospects (along with Tyler Eifert and Dwayne Allen). I would personally be happy with any of that group of TEs as a lotto ticket, and rank them all about equally.Assuming redraft I'd drop Stills. I'd take Boykin and Greene ahead of him. Probably keep Kelce and Ertz ahead of him if you're risk averse, drop Ertz first if you're not risk averse.So, if you're a Green owner and you're bullish on him, who is safe to cut in order to keep him? Middling pseudo-lotto tickets like Kenny Stills and Boykin? A bad knee in a good situation like Shonn Greene, perhaps? What about other high upside TEs like Kelce and Ertz? I'm having a difficult time establishing value for him.
If it's dynasty I'd drop Greene, Stills and Ertz first, possibly Kelce too.
Big picture, man... They threw the ball 675 times last year, so a decrease is likely. So expecting his targets to increase 17% while overall targets decrease 5% to 10% is actually pretty significant. I know people on fantasy boards think passing and rushing attempts are unlimited, but they are actually quite finite.target him more. and I don't consider one more target per game "significant".That would be a significant uptick from last year. You think they are going to pass more or just target him more? I would feel ok with 7.5 for the 4 weeks that Welker is out, but I don't think he'll get that many during the important games.I'd probably go 7.5Yes. Especially when taking draft position into account. If you disagree, please tell me how many targets you think JT will get this year? I think he gets about 6 per game.Are you saying you'd rather have a "contingency plan"+ L. Green than Julius Thomas?
That's enough for me... Kelce and Ertz it is.I'm giving him one week. Peter King said they have big plans for Green, curious to see what that means.
I'm giving you an A for Eifert.I dropped Eifert for him, I'm swinging for the fences
:slapsmoneydown: I'm out.On the depth chart the Chargers just released, Green is starting at tight end. So is Gates. Their starting lineup is a two-TE set.
It's good in that he'll be starting. But it could be bad because in 2 TE situations, Gates has been the receiving TE and Green has been the blocking TE.wdcrob said::slapsmoneydown: I'm out.Maurile Tremblay said:On the depth chart the Chargers just released, Green is starting at tight end. So is Gates. Their starting lineup is a two-TE set.
Great now I have to rethink my starter in my dynasty league.Maurile Tremblay said:On the depth chart the Chargers just released, Green is starting at tight end. So is Gates. Their starting lineup is a two-TE set.
I fell for the Peter King Tight End Of The Month hype in 2003. ("Ever heard of L.J. Smith? You will, 70 catches from now.") :Xhouston said:I'm giving him one week. Peter King said they have big plans for Green, curious to see what that means.
They brought in TE David Johnson to run block. He's been lining up mostly as the H back in preseason, though he has been closer to the line on a few snaps.The thing is it seems Green is a better blocker although he's not great but Gates is pretty bad at it so SD keeps Green blocking instead of running routes. Problem is in a limited sample Green has been better than Gates as a receiving option as well. It doesn't seem like it should be a difficult decision. Pass the torch already.
Bringing in another TE to block seems like really good news for Green. The question now is when are they going to put Green in over Gates in single TE sets? Is there a chance that happens this year?They brought in TE David Johnson to run block. He's been lining up mostly as the H back in preseason, though he has been closer to the line on a few snaps.The thing is it seems Green is a better blocker although he's not great but Gates is pretty bad at it so SD keeps Green blocking instead of running routes. Problem is in a limited sample Green has been better than Gates as a receiving option as well. It doesn't seem like it should be a difficult decision. Pass the torch already.
Gates is still Rivers's security blanket. A key goal for McCoy in year one was to up Rivers's completion percentage, and to do that they worked more short/mid range routes into the playbook (whereas it was pretty much bombs away with Norv) - and that's where Gates lives now. Rivers's completion percentage went up, Gates's yards per reception went down and Green got the occasional big play. They may roll that way again this year, but I'm hoping they're including Green in more routes and reallocating some of his run blocking duties to Johnson.
The main thing I think that could really hold Green back from putting up nice numbers is the success of the run game. This isn't Norv, they'd be just fine keeping games short and winning 20-13 by dominating the clock with the run. They've got a pretty solid stable of backs to do it with. Even if Matthews misses time I think they'd still be able to do o.k. running - as long as the line allows it. Success running the ball will also help out the defense, which I still think is a bit shaky. They snuck into the playoffs with that approach and you can see the shift midseason reflected in the stats last year as well as the won/loss record.
So while I'd like to see Green get lots of targets because he's pretty dynamic, they may not need to utilize him as much if they can run like they'd like to.
They really struggled running vs. Seattle in preseason, so it looks like solid run Ds might force them to open up the passing game a bit more. I think it'll be match ups like that where Green will get his targets.
I won't say never, but I think unless/until Gates misses time, Gates is probably going to be the guy to run in single TE sets in passing situations.Bringing in another TE to block seems like really good news for Green. The question now is when are they going to put Green in over Gates in single TE sets? Is there a chance that happens this year?They brought in TE David Johnson to run block. He's been lining up mostly as the H back in preseason, though he has been closer to the line on a few snaps.The thing is it seems Green is a better blocker although he's not great but Gates is pretty bad at it so SD keeps Green blocking instead of running routes. Problem is in a limited sample Green has been better than Gates as a receiving option as well. It doesn't seem like it should be a difficult decision. Pass the torch already.
Gates is still Rivers's security blanket. A key goal for McCoy in year one was to up Rivers's completion percentage, and to do that they worked more short/mid range routes into the playbook (whereas it was pretty much bombs away with Norv) - and that's where Gates lives now. Rivers's completion percentage went up, Gates's yards per reception went down and Green got the occasional big play. They may roll that way again this year, but I'm hoping they're including Green in more routes and reallocating some of his run blocking duties to Johnson.
The main thing I think that could really hold Green back from putting up nice numbers is the success of the run game. This isn't Norv, they'd be just fine keeping games short and winning 20-13 by dominating the clock with the run. They've got a pretty solid stable of backs to do it with. Even if Matthews misses time I think they'd still be able to do o.k. running - as long as the line allows it. Success running the ball will also help out the defense, which I still think is a bit shaky. They snuck into the playoffs with that approach and you can see the shift midseason reflected in the stats last year as well as the won/loss record.
So while I'd like to see Green get lots of targets because he's pretty dynamic, they may not need to utilize him as much if they can run like they'd like to.
They really struggled running vs. Seattle in preseason, so it looks like solid run Ds might force them to open up the passing game a bit more. I think it'll be match ups like that where Green will get his targets.
I've never been a big fan of King and was a little concerned that he's really hyping up Brandin Cooks, who I'm invested in this year, and have convinced myself he is going to have a special rookie season.I fell for the Peter King Tight End Of The Month hype in 2003. ("Ever heard of L.J. Smith? You will, 70 catches from now.") :Xhouston said:I'm giving him one week. Peter King said they have big plans for Green, curious to see what that means.
He'll never be consistent enough to start until he is playing in the single TE sets. He'll lose you more games than he'll win you.I won't say never, but I think unless/until Gates misses time, Gates is probably going to be the guy to run in single TE sets in passing situations.Bringing in another TE to block seems like really good news for Green. The question now is when are they going to put Green in over Gates in single TE sets? Is there a chance that happens this year?They brought in TE David Johnson to run block. He's been lining up mostly as the H back in preseason, though he has been closer to the line on a few snaps.The thing is it seems Green is a better blocker although he's not great but Gates is pretty bad at it so SD keeps Green blocking instead of running routes. Problem is in a limited sample Green has been better than Gates as a receiving option as well. It doesn't seem like it should be a difficult decision. Pass the torch already.
Gates is still Rivers's security blanket. A key goal for McCoy in year one was to up Rivers's completion percentage, and to do that they worked more short/mid range routes into the playbook (whereas it was pretty much bombs away with Norv) - and that's where Gates lives now. Rivers's completion percentage went up, Gates's yards per reception went down and Green got the occasional big play. They may roll that way again this year, but I'm hoping they're including Green in more routes and reallocating some of his run blocking duties to Johnson.
The main thing I think that could really hold Green back from putting up nice numbers is the success of the run game. This isn't Norv, they'd be just fine keeping games short and winning 20-13 by dominating the clock with the run. They've got a pretty solid stable of backs to do it with. Even if Matthews misses time I think they'd still be able to do o.k. running - as long as the line allows it. Success running the ball will also help out the defense, which I still think is a bit shaky. They snuck into the playoffs with that approach and you can see the shift midseason reflected in the stats last year as well as the won/loss record.
So while I'd like to see Green get lots of targets because he's pretty dynamic, they may not need to utilize him as much if they can run like they'd like to.
They really struggled running vs. Seattle in preseason, so it looks like solid run Ds might force them to open up the passing game a bit more. I think it'll be match ups like that where Green will get his targets.