Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Um, yes he was. Let's assume Jennings is similar to other #1 WRs, which means he has 6 solid seasons left in him. I'm pretty sure the Packers will sign him through the age of 34.'cstu said:
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Second Year Wide Receivers (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter floods
- Start date
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Jordy Nelson- 68 receptions on 96 targets, 1263 yards, 18.6, 15 TDsGreg Jennings- 67 receptions on 101 targets, 949 yards, 14.2, 9 TDs
Jennings beat Nelson in literally 0 categories last year.
Terpman22
Footballguy
Srsly. Guy is barely a top 5 wr in his division, let alone the NFL.
I think Cobb is the heir apparent to Jennings, but don't think Jennings will walk when he is a FA. GB does an excellent job of getting WRs that fits their system, and bring them along slowly. If Cobb shows something in the next two years, GB will lock him up before he can test FA.
I don't expect much from Cobb this year unless they let Driver go and he plays the slot in 3 WR sets (read somewhere that Nelson may get some slot work, too), but I see his production increasing over time and should startable for FF in 2013.
What will be interesting to follow is the target distribution for all the "mouths to fee". Because GB is so effecient, there are not as many attempts or completions as some other high octane offenses. Rodgers was on pace to throw "only" 535 passes last year. The pecking order is pretty apparent, but the way he spreads the ball around, I have a tough time seeing 4 viable FF plays for WR/TE.
Jennings got about 8 targets a game, and I don't think that will change. Nelson and Finley each got about 6+/game, sometimes game planning for Finley more some weeks. I expect Nelson to get a slight bump up in targets and Finley to remain the same (disappearing for home games last year should be a concern... and Jordy was the opposite. Weird.). So that is 21 targets if I assume an 8/7/6 breakdown.
If Driver should leave, where do his 59 targets go? Maybe they run more 2 TE sets with Finley and Williams, but in the past they have never really done that. Cobb moves to the slot on 3 WR sets and Jones is the 4th WR? Or maybe they alternate packages and get roughly the same targets. I think Cobb is a much better prospect than Jones and is more versatile. But does that translate to 5 targets a game? I really doubt it. And as someone who has owned Henderson and Meachem, I can't trust rolling a player out there that gets less than 5 targets a game.... so I am not counting on Cobb in any of my Dynasty leagues.
I don't expect much from Cobb this year unless they let Driver go and he plays the slot in 3 WR sets (read somewhere that Nelson may get some slot work, too), but I see his production increasing over time and should startable for FF in 2013.
What will be interesting to follow is the target distribution for all the "mouths to fee". Because GB is so effecient, there are not as many attempts or completions as some other high octane offenses. Rodgers was on pace to throw "only" 535 passes last year. The pecking order is pretty apparent, but the way he spreads the ball around, I have a tough time seeing 4 viable FF plays for WR/TE.
Jennings got about 8 targets a game, and I don't think that will change. Nelson and Finley each got about 6+/game, sometimes game planning for Finley more some weeks. I expect Nelson to get a slight bump up in targets and Finley to remain the same (disappearing for home games last year should be a concern... and Jordy was the opposite. Weird.). So that is 21 targets if I assume an 8/7/6 breakdown.
If Driver should leave, where do his 59 targets go? Maybe they run more 2 TE sets with Finley and Williams, but in the past they have never really done that. Cobb moves to the slot on 3 WR sets and Jones is the 4th WR? Or maybe they alternate packages and get roughly the same targets. I think Cobb is a much better prospect than Jones and is more versatile. But does that translate to 5 targets a game? I really doubt it. And as someone who has owned Henderson and Meachem, I can't trust rolling a player out there that gets less than 5 targets a game.... so I am not counting on Cobb in any of my Dynasty leagues.
Isn't 101>96?
I'm not so sure it's that clear cut when you have a 1A and 1B.Hakeem Nicks - 75 rec. on 131 targets, 1169 yds and 7 TDs
Victor Cruz - 82 rec. on 132 targets, 1536 yds and 9 TDs
Who's the best receiver on the Giants?
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
jennings missed more games than jordy. IMo thats the reason his other stats are lower
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Last year it was Victor Cruz and Jordy Nelson. Next year, who knows.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
I don't disagree, but missing games is a concern as well.Nelson put up some big time numbers at the end of the season with Jennings out...but that was also with more attention from defenses.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Yeah, as you conveniently forgot to mention when running thru those stats earlier, Jennings missed 3+ games last year (first time since 2007 he missed any games). Nelson's best stretch of the season was when Jennings was out. I dont think he's better than Jennings, but GB certainly has a viable replacement if Jennings leaves. If they're smart though, they realize they won a SB and almost went undefeated last year because of their passing offense. You dont break up a corps like Jennings & Nelson (& likely Cobb in a year or 2) in a situation like this.ETA: Their only regular season loss last year was a game Jennings didnt play in.
Last edited by a moderator:
Instinctive
Footballguy
Better fantasy stats is absolutely NOT equal to being a better receiver...give me a break.
Max Power
Footballguy
And yet arguably he IS a top 5 WR in the NFL. For WRs UNDER 30 years old, here is how he stacks up...
Receiving Yards = 4th
Receiving Yards per game = 5th
Receiving touchdowns = Tied for 2nd
Receptions = 4th
Outside of Calvin and Fitz, there are easily a half a dozen players who someone could make a case for as a top 5 WR. Jennings is one of them.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
What do you go by? Reputation and blocking %?
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
Watching the games and paying attention to how the defense plays each of them?What do you go by? Reputation and blocking %?
no offense to Cruz or Nelson, but do you honestly believe they get those types of numbers with every teams #1 corner on them?
Just for a small example... look what happened between Cruz and Nicks in the superbowl. Patriots game planned for Cruz and Nicks absolutely went off.
The actual stats and results we see are a small indicator of what actually happened, much more to the story than that.
Last edited by a moderator:
coolnerd
Footballguy
http://blog.houstontexans.com/2012/05/21/with-andre-johnson-out-lestar-jean-getting-starter-reps/
Lestar Jean getting a shot with the ones, but had some dropsies
Lestar Jean getting a shot with the ones, but had some dropsies
Last edited by a moderator:
Any concern with Titus Young now that his character concerns could have resurfaced? Maybe this doesn't matter that much, but I get the feeling that sucker punching a teammate (especially Delmas) is never a good thing for an up-and-coming NFL player.
http://rotoworld.com/headlines/nfl/233625/lions-wr-young-barred-from-otas-after-fight
http://rotoworld.com/headlines/nfl/233625/lions-wr-young-barred-from-otas-after-fight
Sabertooth
Footballguy
By fantasy football metrics it is. Moneyball baby!
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
So by your theory, Cruz wins in this regard as well because he gained so much attention.Cruz plays the slot often, which takes away him from playing against a teams #1 CB anyway. I saw Cruz make Nhamdi look bad and Nelson busted out playing against teams #1 CBs when Jennings was gone...aka more attention and still produced.Watching the games and paying attention to how the defense plays each of them?What do you go by? Reputation and blocking %?
no offense to Cruz or Nelson, but do you honestly believe they get those types of numbers with every teams #1 corner on them?
Just for a small example... look what happened between Cruz and Nicks in the superbowl. Patriots game planned for Cruz and Nicks absolutely went off.
The actual stats and results we see are a small indicator of what actually happened, much more to the story than that.
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
no, because Cruz got shut down completely when they focused on him. Do you think Nelson is better than Jennings? I suppose its arguable, but certainly not what I believe.'benson_will_lead_the_way said:So by your theory, Cruz wins in this regard as well because he gained so much attention.Watching the games and paying attention to how the defense plays each of them?What do you go by? Reputation and blocking %?
no offense to Cruz or Nelson, but do you honestly believe they get those types of numbers with every teams #1 corner on them?
Just for a small example... look what happened between Cruz and Nicks in the superbowl. Patriots game planned for Cruz and Nicks absolutely went off.
The actual stats and results we see are a small indicator of what actually happened, much more to the story than that.
Cruz plays the slot often, which takes away him from playing against a teams #1 CB anyway. I saw Cruz make Nhamdi look bad and Nelson busted out playing against teams #1 CBs when Jennings was gone...aka more attention and still produced.
cstu
Footballguy
Even if Jennings is better it's not by much. Nelson had two of his best games with Jennings out and they had nearly identical numbers in the Giants game.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
to me I use the nelson/jennings cruz/nicks thing to my advantage.
Ill gladly take nelson later than jennings and get just as good as production.
The cruz/nicks thing is a bit different, I think the regular non-fbg guy thinks cruz might be the guy to have, where as I love Nicks. again, Ill wait and take whomever is left of the two.
ranking all 4 in re-draft:
Jennings
Nicks
Cruz
Jordy
Ill gladly take nelson later than jennings and get just as good as production.
The cruz/nicks thing is a bit different, I think the regular non-fbg guy thinks cruz might be the guy to have, where as I love Nicks. again, Ill wait and take whomever is left of the two.
ranking all 4 in re-draft:
Jennings
Nicks
Cruz
Jordy
Crazy Tony
Footballguy
I'm not expert but it looks like he beat him in targets according to the data you posted.
Crazy Tony
Footballguy
I think we're off top talking about 2nd year WRs. Regardless of specific incidents Nicks/Cruz Jennings/Nelson I believe what helps is the situation.
Is CRUZ a WR1 on the team? I don't think so. Nicks is #1 WR on the team. Situations my allow Cruz to get more targets because Nicks is covered with 1-2 guys or whatever. Or Exploit a weakness of an opponent. What do they care they won a superbowl. GB did too, just not last year.
I believe NICKS or JENNINGS would be about that good in any situation. CRUZ had a fantastic year as did Jordy...but it might be a result of the situation. I like their talent but I don't believe it was the talent alone that created the results.
Situation similar to the one you described: Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon. It remains to be seen if Garcon is a true #1 WR or better fit as WR2. Manning is removed from the situation and is DEN....Demariyus Thomas and Eric Decker look to be WR1 WR2. I like DemThomas' upside and athletic gifts. I trust Decker's hands and consistency more. Decker is still #2 WR even if he outscores Thomas. We call that exceeding expectations.
Jennings is 2yrs older than Nelson. But he's more established as a top performer. Ranked 54, 12, 4, 20,4,and 18. Nelson 83, 88, 66, 2. He's only done this once. Something could change and impact the situation to throw it off kilter. Other guy said it best. He'll take whoever is left over.
Someone else spoke about DOUG BALDWIN. I think he had a great year...and he need a good WR opposite him. I believe Sidney Rice is a pretty legitimate talent and he played at least 1/2 the year. I don't know. Don't care.
I like VBROWN...because I'm hopeful he comes around. I own rivers
I like LIttle because i drafted him over Newton. AND I think it'll take 2-3 years for him to find his groove.
I think Cobb is a talented WR and just needs time and opportunity. Didn't he return a kick 105yds the first time he touched the ball?
I don't think GREEN/JuJONES will have drop off. Just improvement if healthy.
Salas...i think the situation for him isn't ideal. I own Bradford and drafted him and new regime likes others.
JBaldwin is physically gifted. It might take time for him to develop into a stud if ever if work ethic and maturity isn't there. He has upside.
crap I gotta get back to work.
Is CRUZ a WR1 on the team? I don't think so. Nicks is #1 WR on the team. Situations my allow Cruz to get more targets because Nicks is covered with 1-2 guys or whatever. Or Exploit a weakness of an opponent. What do they care they won a superbowl. GB did too, just not last year.
I believe NICKS or JENNINGS would be about that good in any situation. CRUZ had a fantastic year as did Jordy...but it might be a result of the situation. I like their talent but I don't believe it was the talent alone that created the results.
Situation similar to the one you described: Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon. It remains to be seen if Garcon is a true #1 WR or better fit as WR2. Manning is removed from the situation and is DEN....Demariyus Thomas and Eric Decker look to be WR1 WR2. I like DemThomas' upside and athletic gifts. I trust Decker's hands and consistency more. Decker is still #2 WR even if he outscores Thomas. We call that exceeding expectations.
Jennings is 2yrs older than Nelson. But he's more established as a top performer. Ranked 54, 12, 4, 20,4,and 18. Nelson 83, 88, 66, 2. He's only done this once. Something could change and impact the situation to throw it off kilter. Other guy said it best. He'll take whoever is left over.
Someone else spoke about DOUG BALDWIN. I think he had a great year...and he need a good WR opposite him. I believe Sidney Rice is a pretty legitimate talent and he played at least 1/2 the year. I don't know. Don't care.
I like VBROWN...because I'm hopeful he comes around. I own rivers
I like LIttle because i drafted him over Newton. AND I think it'll take 2-3 years for him to find his groove.
I think Cobb is a talented WR and just needs time and opportunity. Didn't he return a kick 105yds the first time he touched the ball?
I don't think GREEN/JuJONES will have drop off. Just improvement if healthy.
Salas...i think the situation for him isn't ideal. I own Bradford and drafted him and new regime likes others.
JBaldwin is physically gifted. It might take time for him to develop into a stud if ever if work ethic and maturity isn't there. He has upside.
crap I gotta get back to work.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
That's a negative in the catch% category then for Jennings.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Not so sure about that. As of now on MFL, Nicks is WR3 with an ADP of 14 picks higher than Cruz. Come August, I think its much more likely Cruz is the guy that drops a few spots than Nicks as well.Not a bad strategy to take the 2nd guy though, depending on the pick.
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
Victor Cruzcatches: 4Yards: 25 Touchdowns: 1Hakeem NicksCatches: 10 Yards: 109 Touchdowns:0considering Cruz averages over 19 yards per catch during the season, I would consider that completely shut down, but to each his own.
Last edited by a moderator:
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
True that. I remember the first time Nelson beat Revis deep even though there was safety help over the top. I actually thought Jennings might have a chance at a big season since he was facing single coverage from the #2CB, but turns out Nelson was the play all the way -- no matter how you look at it Nelson's clearly the a better WR.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
You said earlier that they game planned for him and that's a deciding factor in being a #1WR...now it's stats. Which is it?
Plus he scored a touchdown. I mean "completely shut down"? Come on. Maybe it's just the phrasing I take issue with -- I'd certainly agree that NE took Cruz out of the game for the most part, but they allowed him to score, there's no way he was completely shut down. "completely" means he doesn't score a TD.
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
I said watch the games and see how the defense gameplans against him... I did say that. and when Cruz got gameplanned against as the #1 guy, he struggled. thats my point.... dont try to be ridiculous now'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
yea, your probably right, completely shut down is a little to strong considering your point. I do like Cruz a lot, I was just pointing out a game I watched of him where It was clear he was the focus of the defense, haven't seen every Giants game so who knows, maybe I'm wrong lol'todisco1 said:
cstu
Footballguy
I'm not getting good vibes about Young. First there was this in week 13, the team then spends a 2nd on Broyles and now this. This isn't a good way to beat out Broyles for the #2 job and I think he's going to be stuck in the #3 role like last year.
He doesn't have to beat out Broyles for the no.2 job. He already is the no.2 WR, IMO. He and Calvin will play in 2 WR sets and Broyles will come in the slot for 3 WR sets. Plus he'll probably be on PUP to start season.
identikit
Footballguy
Burleson retired?
sj_bennett
Footballguy
I like Brown this year, but it is certainly the time of year when we get things like, "Ahman Green looked good in a city park when he easily eluded the man with a walker, leaped over a sidewalk and hauled in a pass in stride between 2 flower beds. Fans on a nearby park bench cheered the effort."
cstu
Footballguy
I agree and don't believe VB will do much this year barring an injury but I've heard nothing but good things about him since he was drafted. He reminds me of Kendall Wright, a guy who plays bigger and faster than his measurables would indicate.
