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Self-Driving Cars (1 Viewer)

How soon until the MAJORITY of cars on the road are self-driving?

  • Within 5 years

    Votes: 3 2.3%
  • Within 10 years

    Votes: 13 10.1%
  • Within 20 years

    Votes: 49 38.0%
  • Within 50 years

    Votes: 44 34.1%
  • Never

    Votes: 20 15.5%

  • Total voters
    129
Watching this develop gives the same feeling I had when I was on the internet (AOL) for the first time.  This will revolutionize things in ways we can't imagine.

 
Watching this develop gives the same feeling I had when I was on the internet (AOL) for the first time.  This will revolutionize things in ways we can't imagine.
In this and other similar threads, we've actually batted around lots of ideas but you're right, the history of new technologies is that uses will evolve that no one foresaw.

I think it changes travel substantially for anyplace you can reach in 12-24 hours of "driving." 

Where is the drone technology thread? That just got a lot more interesting, too, and not only in ways that mean killing people.

 
if all cars were self driving, it would eliminate the need for traffic patrols, checkpoints, cameras on traffic lights..   no need for parking meters either..  

 
In this and other similar threads, we've actually batted around lots of ideas but you're right, the history of new technologies is that uses will evolve that no one foresaw.

I think it changes travel substantially for anyplace you can reach in 12-24 hours of "driving." 

Where is the drone technology thread? That just got a lot more interesting, too, and not only in ways that mean killing people.
I've been trying to think of counter-intuitive ways to invest in this technology.  That comment about what is driveable in X hours definitely gives me some thoughts.

 
I've been trying to think of counter-intuitive ways to invest in this technology.  That comment about what is driveable in X hours definitely gives me some thoughts.
The simplest thing that comes to me (not one of the planet's deepest thinkers) is that trips that used to take a day or two will be done in the future during sleeping hours. Why waste daylight driving when you could be doing stuff then and getting the travel chores done while you sleep? In addition to saving on accommodations, you're traveling during generally lighter traffic conditions, too, not that it matters all that much to your car.

 
I've been trying to think of counter-intuitive ways to invest in this technology.  That comment about what is driveable in X hours definitely gives me some thoughts.
I think it's easier to think about things that WON'T be needed, then that may spark things that ARE needed.

 
Imagine all the lost revenue when cities aren't hitting people with traffic tickets and parking meters.  This is going to blow a huge hole in some budgets.

 
I seriously cannot wait until I can get boozed up inside a self-driving car.  Road trips to Vegas from LA would be awesome instead of horrible.

 
DOT releases a Federal Automated Vehicle policy.

Obama's statement on self-driving cars:

"Right now, too many people die on our roads – 35,200 last year alone – with 94 percent of those the result of human error or choice. Automated vehicles have the potential to save tens of thousands of lives each year. And right now, for too many senior citizens and Americans with disabilities, driving isn't an option. Automated vehicles could change their lives.

Safer, more accessible driving. Less congested, less polluted roads. That's what harnessing technology for good can look like. But we have to get it right. Americans deserve to know they'll be safe today even as we develop and deploy the technologies of tomorrow.

That's why my administration is rolling out new rules of the road for automated vehicles – guidance that the manufacturers developing self-driving cars should follow to keep us safe. And we're asking them to sign a 15-point safety checklist showing not just the government, but every interested American, how they're doing it."

 
How do self-driving cars deal with two awful situations?

I can run over someone or veer left and go off a cliff.  How does that work?

 
How do self-driving cars deal with two awful situations?

I can run over someone or veer left and go off a cliff.  How does that work?
Brake and hope the person doesn't get hit.  What the hell were they doing on the road near a cliff?

 
Brake and hope the person doesn't get hit.  What the hell were they doing on the road near a cliff?
Just an example.  Sometimes you are presented with two bad situations.  A car is coming into your lane.  Do you hold still and block him or veer left into traffic?

 
Just an example.  Sometimes you are presented with two bad situations.  A car is coming into your lane.  Do you hold still and block him or veer left into traffic?
I get what you're saying but a computer can sense traffic better and make quicker decisions than a human.  So in that example the car would take evasive action sooner that wouldn't entail going into oncoming traffic.

 
Just an example.  Sometimes you are presented with two bad situations.  A car is coming into your lane.  Do you hold still and block him or veer left into traffic?
Is the second car on auto pilot too? Or is it driven by a e.g. drunk human? Because it seems to me that is the origin of this problematic situation

 
Is the second car on auto pilot too? Or is it driven by a e.g. drunk human? Because it seems to me that is the origin of this problematic situation
If we are all on computer operated cars no point to discuss.

If some are and some others their is.

Yes, maybe a drunk driver is veering into your lane.  Does your autopilot hold still and take the rub?  Or move over into oncoming traffic?

 
If we are all on computer operated cars no point to discuss.

If some are and some others their is.

Yes, maybe a drunk driver is veering into your lane.  Does your autopilot hold still and take the rub?  Or move over into oncoming traffic?
Mandatory breathalyzer on non auto pilot cars? 

 
Let's just say they are a bad driver.  Didn't see you in their blind spot.
I think you are making too much of the issue. That same choice has to be made by a human if there is no auto pilot. And there are probably a lot of factors that would tie into the  decision,

Now imagine it was a human that wrote the sofrware for the auto pilot...

 
I think you are making too much of the issue. That same choice has to be made by a human if there is no auto pilot. And there are probably a lot of factors that would tie into the  decision,

Now imagine it was a human that wrote the sofrware for the auto pilot...
My point is that a human would know to take the rub and stay in their lane.  But with sensors/autopilot does the computer know that?  Or would the computer have you move left to avoid the rub and put you into oncoming traffic?

 
35K dead a year.  Pretty sure if we mandated every car switched to today's automated technologies right now, we'd take that down to under 1K.  Won't happen though.

By 2020 I expect self driving to be the standard on all new cars.  Really, this is just too important.  35K a year.  That is more people that died in combat in the Revolutionary War.  From all parties involved (American, British, French, German).  35K a year.  That number is slightly higher than EVERY American death that has been the direct result of terrorism from 1970 to present TIMES EIGHT!  35K a year.

If there ever was something we need to get behind fast, it is this.

 
35K dead a year.  Pretty sure if we mandated every car switched to today's automated technologies right now, we'd take that down to under 1K.  Won't happen though.

By 2020 I expect self driving to be the standard on all new cars.  Really, this is just too important.  35K a year.  That is more people that died in combat in the Revolutionary War.  From all parties involved (American, British, French, German).  35K a year.  That number is slightly higher than EVERY American death that has been the direct result of terrorism from 1970 to present TIMES EIGHT!  35K a year.

If there ever was something we need to get behind fast, it is this.
This is a great point and one that most people just aren't getting. Autonomous cars don't need to be perfect, they just need to be better than us. Even if they were only 50% better they would save nearly 20,000 lives per year.

 
This is a great point and one that most people just aren't getting. Autonomous cars don't need to be perfect, they just need to be better than us. Even if they were only 50% better they would save nearly 20,000 lives per year.
The results will be a lot better than that, I bet. It will reach the point where an automobile fatality will get nationwide news coverage like an airplane crash does now. And I think autonomous cars will just be the first -- although massive -- step. Once we see what the technology can do, we'll revamp the infrastucture to allow vehicles to zip across country at high speed on elevated guideways. Coast to coast in about 24 hours.

 
question for you car guys...

with self driving cars, would you care about the quality/make of the car as much as you do now? 

 
question for you car guys...

with self driving cars, would you care about the quality/make of the car as much as you do now? 
I guess it would be depending on the main expected use, and specifically whether it would be used in a professional context where a low end car could send the wrong signal.

Would I care what car if it was just for running down to the supermarket. No.

If I wanted to use it for repeated long range driving then range and comfort would be high on the list and more likely to be found in a high end car

If I was supposed to represent a professional company that wanted to portray an image of success then make and price would also be a factor

 
Sometimes you face two accidents.  One worse then the other.  Can the computer calculate that?
I doubt a commuter could calculate that very well. It's basically a math problem, and it's not like commuters are especially known for being able to do math really fast.

Wait, did you say commuter or computer? Because, yeah, a computer could totally do that.

 
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The computer is sensors.  Radar.

It doesn't know in that exact instant what will happen if you move.  It just knows that right now you are going to get hit.  It tells you to move.  That's it.
What kind of computer are you talking about?  I'm pretty sure you could make my iPhone do all that stuff with the right conversions - do you think there's a mechanical abacus with some wheels and pulleys that are doing the calculations on self driving cars? 

 
question for you car guys...

with self driving cars, would you care about the quality/make of the car as much as you do now? 
I guess it would be depending on the main expected use, and specifically whether it would be used in a professional context where a low end car could send the wrong signal.

Would I care what car if it was just for running down to the supermarket. No.

If I wanted to use it for repeated long range driving then range and comfort would be high on the list and more likely to be found in a high end car

If I was supposed to represent a professional company that wanted to portray an image of success then make and price would also be a factor
thanks for the answer.

it popped into my brain yesterday that if the world goes the route of self-driving cars, performance likely becomes a non-issue for determining purchase.... I'd assume they'll all perform more or less the same (although maybe, as you say, some are more for longer freeway trips and some are more for shorter city trips). so then it comes down to comfort and amenities and vanity. 

 
thanks for the answer.

it popped into my brain yesterday that if the world goes the route of self-driving cars, performance likely becomes a non-issue for determining purchase.... I'd assume they'll all perform more or less the same (although maybe, as you say, some are more for longer freeway trips and some are more for shorter city trips). so then it comes down to comfort and amenities and vanity. 
In China, more emphasis is placed on the back seat.  Owners don't care about their drivers experience as much.  There is still a healthy dose of ego, so I don't see people not caring about performance at all.  

 
In China, more emphasis is placed on the back seat.  Owners don't care about their drivers experience as much.  There is still a healthy dose of ego, so I don't see people not caring about performance at all.  
will there even be front seats any more? 

I keep imagining chevy in the rolls in caddy shack...

 
Don't have a car. Don't want one in NYC

i will be getting one when I move to Dallas for business purposes. It won't be anything fancy
Dallas is not NYC.  It would be very difficult to get anywhere without one.  Dallas is the home of luxury SUVs.

Seems odd that a guy without a car would think people with cars have inadequacy issues.

 

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