Self Driving Cars (4 Viewers)

[JAA]

As someone who will never have a self driving car, I cant wait for them. Remember the time the self driving car road raged you? Me neither!

I also have a feeling it will create an us vs them bully mentality where aggressive driving will be more rampant against self driving cars.

This is a technology that I feel kind of bad about missing out on. The idea that I could hop into a car and tell it to drive me to a city 12 hours away and I just sit there and watch movies or read or watch the world go by in the meantime sounds extremely appealing, and I say that as somebody who enjoys driving.

In a better world, we would just have way more passenger trains that could get you to that city in far less than 12 hours

Here is the rub about flying. While Im sure the median flight time is still much faster than trains, I believe the long tail distribution of flight delays is a roll of the dice these days. Meaning, while on average a train is, lets say 2x longer than a plane flight, add in all the travel/check/check time with flights coupled with the change of a multi-hour, maybe overnight, delay, flights to me seem less and less appealing.

How about this hypothetical. Which of these 2 travel options would you take:

• Arrive at your destination at the fastest time possible with a 1/6 chance be delayed to the next day
• Arrive at your destination at 2x the fastest time possible with a 1% chance of delay

My biggest issue with flying is for vacations. If I have a 4 day get-away scheduled out and I get delayed a night, I lose a day of vacation. The amount of value I place on a day of vacation far exceeds any of these costs or probabilities. And until I see airlines actually start caring about peoples lives (why would they?) then I want to find any alternative method of transportation than flying.

/bitter flyer

 

[belljr]

that riding a train is 100x easier and faster than flying

Faster?

yeah - flight to florida 2 hours - train ride is like 24 hours

But I do agree i wish train was cheaper and more efficient

Sure, FL. But FL isnt the only destination. And BTW you need to take into account time to get to the airport, through TSA, and out of the airport.

We really need some badass east to west trains. If there could be a fast Texas (Austin please) train, I would be in heaven.

I know this obviously varies from place to place but any trip I take to florida i leave 2.5 hours beforehand from my house and TSA precheck is like 10 minutes at the worst.

so i'll give you 6 hours travel time with no delay. I'll even grant you an extra hour delay so 7 hours. I never had a flight canceled from here knock on wood.

The fastest Train here from PHL to Orlando is 20.5 hours. Not including getting there early for boarding. So now we now subtract that hour back. I'm sure getting out of a train station is a tad quicker than airport so I'll randomly assign .5 hour difference

So 6.5 vs 20.5 you are basically adding a travel day.

BUT I DO WISH TRAINS WERE MORE BETTER.....I would definitely prefer that before flying.

 

[the moops]

As someone who will never have a self driving car, I cant wait for them. Remember the time the self driving car road raged you? Me neither!

I also have a feeling it will create an us vs them bully mentality where aggressive driving will be more rampant against self driving cars.

This is a technology that I feel kind of bad about missing out on. The idea that I could hop into a car and tell it to drive me to a city 12 hours away and I just sit there and watch movies or read or watch the world go by in the meantime sounds extremely appealing, and I say that as somebody who enjoys driving.

In a better world, we would just have way more passenger trains that could get you to that city in far less than 12 hours

Here is the rub about flying. While Im sure the median flight time is still much faster than trains, I believe the long tail distribution of flight delays is a roll of the dice these days. Meaning, while on average a train is, lets say 2x longer than a plane flight, add in all the travel/check/check time with flights coupled with the change of a multi-hour, maybe overnight, delay, flights to me seem less and less appealing.

How about this hypothetical. Which of these 2 travel options would you take:

• Arrive at your destination at the fastest time possible with a 1/6 chance be delayed to the next day
• Arrive at your destination at 2x the fastest time possible with a 1% chance of delay

My biggest issue with flying is for vacations. If I have a 4 day get-away scheduled out and I get delayed a night, I lose a day of vacation. The amount of value I place on a day of vacation far exceeds any of these costs or probabilities. And until I see airlines actually start caring about peoples lives (why would they?) then I want to find any alternative method of transportation than flying.

/bitter flyer

I took a train from Minneapolis to Chicago last winter. I got in at 1 AM when expected arrival was supposed to be 600 PM. Delays happen

 

[FreeBaGeL]

that riding a train is 100x easier and faster than flying

Faster?

yeah - flight to florida 2 hours - train ride is like 24 hours

But I do agree i wish train was cheaper and more efficient

Sure, FL. But FL isnt the only destination. And BTW you need to take into account time to get to the airport, through TSA, and out of the airport.

We really need some badass east to west trains. If there could be a fast Texas (Austin please) train, I would be in heaven.

I know this obviously varies from place to place but any trip I take to florida i leave 2.5 hours beforehand from my house and TSA precheck is like 10 minutes at the worst.

so i'll give you 6 hours travel time with no delay. I'll even grant you an extra hour delay so 7 hours. I never had a flight canceled from here knock on wood.

The fastest Train here from PHL to Orlando is 20.5 hours. Not including getting there early for boarding. So now we now subtract that hour back. I'm sure getting out of a train station is a tad quicker than airport so I'll randomly assign .5 hour difference

So 6.5 vs 20.5 you are basically adding a travel day.

BUT I DO WISH TRAINS WERE MORE BETTER.....I would definitely prefer that before flying.

True but a big part of that is our lousy, slow rail system. Amtrak trains top out at around 79mph other than one specific route that as our only high speed train capable of doing 149mph. Trains in Europe go up to 249mph. That would make a big difference in that travel time if we actually had a well fleshed out train system.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Guys, self-driving cars are an engineering problem that is already close to being solved. Rail construction is a public policy problem that will likely require federal legislation to solve. For an assortment of reasons, there is no way we can build a national HSR system. It's not going to happen. Be happy with your electric self-driving car in ten years.

 

[Instinctive]

As someone who will never have a self driving car, I cant wait for them. Remember the time the self driving car road raged you? Me neither!

I also have a feeling it will create an us vs them bully mentality where aggressive driving will be more rampant against self driving cars.

This is a technology that I feel kind of bad about missing out on. The idea that I could hop into a car and tell it to drive me to a city 12 hours away and I just sit there and watch movies or read or watch the world go by in the meantime sounds extremely appealing, and I say that as somebody who enjoys driving.

In a better world, we would just have way more passenger trains that could get you to that city in far less than 12 hours

Here is the rub about flying. While Im sure the median flight time is still much faster than trains, I believe the long tail distribution of flight delays is a roll of the dice these days. Meaning, while on average a train is, lets say 2x longer than a plane flight, add in all the travel/check/check time with flights coupled with the change of a multi-hour, maybe overnight, delay, flights to me seem less and less appealing.

How about this hypothetical. Which of these 2 travel options would you take:

• Arrive at your destination at the fastest time possible with a 1/6 chance be delayed to the next day
• Arrive at your destination at 2x the fastest time possible with a 1% chance of delay

My biggest issue with flying is for vacations. If I have a 4 day get-away scheduled out and I get delayed a night, I lose a day of vacation. The amount of value I place on a day of vacation far exceeds any of these costs or probabilities. And until I see airlines actually start caring about peoples lives (why would they?) then I want to find any alternative method of transportation than flying.

/bitter flyer

I took 192 flights last year. Up and down the east coast, throughout TX and the Midwest, even a couple CA trips. I was delayed to the next day zero times. 1/6 is an insane estimate.

 

[the moops]

I took 192 flights last year.

jesus

 

[TripItUp]

Guys, self-driving cars are an engineering problem that is already close to being solved. Rail construction is a public policy problem that will likely require federal legislation to solve. For an assortment of reasons, there is no way we can build a national HSR system. It's not going to happen. Be happy with your electric self-driving car in ten years.

Ten years?

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Guys, self-driving cars are an engineering problem that is already close to being solved. Rail construction is a public policy problem that will likely require federal legislation to solve. For an assortment of reasons, there is no way we can build a national HSR system. It's not going to happen. Be happy with your electric self-driving car in ten years.

Ten years?

I honestly don't know whether you think that estimate is high or low. I know self-driving cars are becoming common in certain areas, but I've never seen one in my snow-covered region of the world. And battery technology for cross-country drives is, I think, a ways off. But it seems to me like those are solve-able problems.

What I'm thinking of is a world in which I want to visit my daughter in Las Cruces (20 hours away by car), and I just hop in and tell it where to go and I chill for the next 20 hours. That's quite a ways off.

 

[TripItUp]

Guys, self-driving cars are an engineering problem that is already close to being solved. Rail construction is a public policy problem that will likely require federal legislation to solve. For an assortment of reasons, there is no way we can build a national HSR system. It's not going to happen. Be happy with your electric self-driving car in ten years.

Ten years?

I honestly don't know whether you think that estimate is high or low. I know self-driving cars are becoming common in certain areas, but I've never seen one in my snow-covered region of the world. And battery technology for cross-country drives is, I think, a ways off. But it seems to me like those are solve-able problems.

ten years is probably a conservative estimate even for less populous states IMHO. the technology is fully here and operational. most of the global tech leaders are talking about it.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Guys, self-driving cars are an engineering problem that is already close to being solved. Rail construction is a public policy problem that will likely require federal legislation to solve. For an assortment of reasons, there is no way we can build a national HSR system. It's not going to happen. Be happy with your electric self-driving car in ten years.

Ten years?

I honestly don't know whether you think that estimate is high or low. I know self-driving cars are becoming common in certain areas, but I've never seen one in my snow-covered region of the world. And battery technology for cross-country drives is, I think, a ways off. But it seems to me like those are solve-able problems.

ten years is probably a conservative estimate even for less populous states IMHO. the technology is fully here and operational. most of the global tech leaders are talking about it.

I hope you're right and I'm wrong. That would be great.

 

[Chaos34]

What I'm thinking of is a world in which I want to visit my daughter in Las Cruces (20 hours away by car), and I just hop in and tell it where to go and I chill for the next 20 hours. That's quite a ways off.

You need to stop and charge but this is here otherwise. I've gone six hours to Tahoe twice on FSD. I stop at Lake Topaz for their epic biscuits and gravy while the car charges, and that's all. 30 minutes and at my age it's good to get out and stretch my legs.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

What I'm thinking of is a world in which I want to visit my daughter in Las Cruces (20 hours away by car), and I just hop in and tell it where to go and I chill for the next 20 hours. That's quite a ways off.

You need to stop and charge but this is here otherwise. I've gone six hours to Tahoe twice on FSD. I stop at Lake Topaz for their epic biscuits and gravy while the car charges, and that's all. 30 minutes and at my age it's good to get out and stretch my legs.

I know this is probably a dumb question, but what is FSD?

I've spent a decent amount of time driving through the American desert that exists west of the 100th meridian and east of the Rocky Mountains. It's weirdly barren. My wife and daughter were rationally worried about running out of gas because they took then non-interstate route to her school one time. How do you overcome this problem in that part of the country?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

What I'm thinking of is a world in which I want to visit my daughter in Las Cruces (20 hours away by car), and I just hop in and tell it where to go and I chill for the next 20 hours. That's quite a ways off.

You need to stop and charge but this is here otherwise. I've gone six hours to Tahoe twice on FSD. I stop at Lake Topaz for their epic biscuits and gravy while the car charges, and that's all. 30 minutes and at my age it's good to get out and stretch my legs.

I know this is probably a dumb question, but what is FSD?

Full self driving

 

[JAA]

As someone who will never have a self driving car, I cant wait for them. Remember the time the self driving car road raged you? Me neither!

I also have a feeling it will create an us vs them bully mentality where aggressive driving will be more rampant against self driving cars.

This is a technology that I feel kind of bad about missing out on. The idea that I could hop into a car and tell it to drive me to a city 12 hours away and I just sit there and watch movies or read or watch the world go by in the meantime sounds extremely appealing, and I say that as somebody who enjoys driving.

In a better world, we would just have way more passenger trains that could get you to that city in far less than 12 hours

Here is the rub about flying. While Im sure the median flight time is still much faster than trains, I believe the long tail distribution of flight delays is a roll of the dice these days. Meaning, while on average a train is, lets say 2x longer than a plane flight, add in all the travel/check/check time with flights coupled with the change of a multi-hour, maybe overnight, delay, flights to me seem less and less appealing.

How about this hypothetical. Which of these 2 travel options would you take:

• Arrive at your destination at the fastest time possible with a 1/6 chance be delayed to the next day
• Arrive at your destination at 2x the fastest time possible with a 1% chance of delay

My biggest issue with flying is for vacations. If I have a 4 day get-away scheduled out and I get delayed a night, I lose a day of vacation. The amount of value I place on a day of vacation far exceeds any of these costs or probabilities. And until I see airlines actually start caring about peoples lives (why would they?) then I want to find any alternative method of transportation than flying.

/bitter flyer

I took 192 flights last year. Up and down the east coast, throughout TX and the Midwest, even a couple CA trips. I was delayed to the next day zero times. 1/6 is an insane estimate.

Consider yourself lucky. My experience is vastly different than yours. I would wager I am worse than 50/50 right now on delays.

My last 2 flights out of Logan to Austin direct were both delayed. One was 6 hours and one was 12 hours. It was horrific and Delta is a POS.

My family of 5 was delayed overnight from SLC to BOS through MSP (on the way back from vacation thankfully). Delta told us the next flight available for us was in 3 days. We split the family and made it home the next night. Horrific.

My wife and I were delayed overnight coming back from Fresno to PHX. This vacation was for my wife's 50th bday and had that overnight delay been out to Fresno I would have lost my ****.

 

[JAA]

Guys, self-driving cars are an engineering problem that is already close to being solved.

How do you define "solved"? Does solved mean no defects, no accidents, no SW problems?

I would wager your definition of solved is different than mine.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Guys, self-driving cars are an engineering problem that is already close to being solved.

How do you define "solved"? Does solved mean no defects, no accidents, no SW problems?

I would wager your definition of solved is different than mine.

Good question. We already have self-driving cars carrying people around in a few nicer-weather cities. That's very good, but I don't think I'll really consider this project complete until I see them on snowy roads and longer trips.

There will be accidents, but my understanding is that they're already significantly safer than cars operated by human drivers. Not 100% sure about that.

 

[Instinctive]

As someone who will never have a self driving car, I cant wait for them. Remember the time the self driving car road raged you? Me neither!

I also have a feeling it will create an us vs them bully mentality where aggressive driving will be more rampant against self driving cars.

This is a technology that I feel kind of bad about missing out on. The idea that I could hop into a car and tell it to drive me to a city 12 hours away and I just sit there and watch movies or read or watch the world go by in the meantime sounds extremely appealing, and I say that as somebody who enjoys driving.

In a better world, we would just have way more passenger trains that could get you to that city in far less than 12 hours

Here is the rub about flying. While Im sure the median flight time is still much faster than trains, I believe the long tail distribution of flight delays is a roll of the dice these days. Meaning, while on average a train is, lets say 2x longer than a plane flight, add in all the travel/check/check time with flights coupled with the change of a multi-hour, maybe overnight, delay, flights to me seem less and less appealing.

How about this hypothetical. Which of these 2 travel options would you take:

• Arrive at your destination at the fastest time possible with a 1/6 chance be delayed to the next day
• Arrive at your destination at 2x the fastest time possible with a 1% chance of delay

My biggest issue with flying is for vacations. If I have a 4 day get-away scheduled out and I get delayed a night, I lose a day of vacation. The amount of value I place on a day of vacation far exceeds any of these costs or probabilities. And until I see airlines actually start caring about peoples lives (why would they?) then I want to find any alternative method of transportation than flying.

/bitter flyer

I took 192 flights last year. Up and down the east coast, throughout TX and the Midwest, even a couple CA trips. I was delayed to the next day zero times. 1/6 is an insane estimate.

Consider yourself lucky. My experience is vastly different than yours. I would wager I am worse than 50/50 right now on delays.

My last 2 flights out of Logan to Austin direct were both delayed. One was 6 hours and one was 12 hours. It was horrific and Delta is a POS.

My family of 5 was delayed overnight from SLC to BOS through MSP (on the way back from vacation thankfully). Delta told us the next flight available for us was in 3 days. We split the family and made it home the next night. Horrific.

My wife and I were delayed overnight coming back from Fresno to PHX. This vacation was for my wife's 50th bday and had that overnight delay been out to Fresno I would have lost my ****.

Maybe a little lucky, but stats would indicate not really. Sounds like you've been remarkably unlucky in a tiny sample size. I hazard drawing sweeping conclusions from small samples in all aspects of life!

76% of American Airlines flights aren't delayed (I almost always fly American). Just above 1% are cancelled.

So I should expect to have been delayed on around 45 flights. I think that's probably true. I don't have data on length of delay, but probably twice a month I was annoyed at how late I got in. So call that about half of delays being at least an hour.

I definitely had 2 cancellations. Maybe 4 or 5, which would be unlucky. Of course, even my personal travel I plan with a clear plan B. So I haven't had a cancellation impact me really beyond just taking a later flight.

FWIW Delta's customer service and their hard product are each outstanding. I think I took 10-15 Delta flights this year, so I have no status. They've always treated me extremely well, and I've been impressed.

 

[Psychopav]

As someone who will never have a self driving car, I cant wait for them. Remember the time the self driving car road raged you? Me neither!

I also have a feeling it will create an us vs them bully mentality where aggressive driving will be more rampant against self driving cars.

This is a technology that I feel kind of bad about missing out on. The idea that I could hop into a car and tell it to drive me to a city 12 hours away and I just sit there and watch movies or read or watch the world go by in the meantime sounds extremely appealing, and I say that as somebody who enjoys driving.

In a better world, we would just have way more passenger trains that could get you to that city in far less than 12 hours

Here is the rub about flying. While Im sure the median flight time is still much faster than trains, I believe the long tail distribution of flight delays is a roll of the dice these days. Meaning, while on average a train is, lets say 2x longer than a plane flight, add in all the travel/check/check time with flights coupled with the change of a multi-hour, maybe overnight, delay, flights to me seem less and less appealing.

How about this hypothetical. Which of these 2 travel options would you take:

• Arrive at your destination at the fastest time possible with a 1/6 chance be delayed to the next day
• Arrive at your destination at 2x the fastest time possible with a 1% chance of delay

My biggest issue with flying is for vacations. If I have a 4 day get-away scheduled out and I get delayed a night, I lose a day of vacation. The amount of value I place on a day of vacation far exceeds any of these costs or probabilities. And until I see airlines actually start caring about peoples lives (why would they?) then I want to find any alternative method of transportation than flying.

/bitter flyer

I took 192 flights last year. Up and down the east coast, throughout TX and the Midwest, even a couple CA trips. I was delayed to the next day zero times. 1/6 is an insane estimate.

Consider yourself lucky. My experience is vastly different than yours. I would wager I am worse than 50/50 right now on delays.

My last 2 flights out of Logan to Austin direct were both delayed. One was 6 hours and one was 12 hours. It was horrific and Delta is a POS.

My family of 5 was delayed overnight from SLC to BOS through MSP (on the way back from vacation thankfully). Delta told us the next flight available for us was in 3 days. We split the family and made it home the next night. Horrific.

My wife and I were delayed overnight coming back from Fresno to PHX. This vacation was for my wife's 50th bday and had that overnight delay been out to Fresno I would have lost my ****.

Maybe a little lucky, but stats would indicate not really. Sounds like you've been remarkably unlucky in a tiny sample size. I hazard drawing sweeping conclusions from small samples in all aspects of life!

76% of American Airlines flights are delayed (I almost always fly American). Just above 1% are cancelled.

So I should expect to have been delayed on around 45 flights. I think that's probably true. I don't have data on length of delay, but probably twice a month I was annoyed at how late I got in. So call that about half of delays being at least an hour.

I definitely had 2 cancellations. Maybe 4 or 5, which would be unlucky. Of course, even my personal travel I plan with a clear plan B. So I haven't had a cancellation impact me really beyond just taking a later flight.

FWIW Delta's customer service and their hard product are each outstanding. I think I took 10-15 Delta flights this year, so I have no status. They've always treated me extremely well, and I've been impressed.

I think you have the bolded backwards.

According to the bls site, in 2024 about 70% of AA flights were on time.

eta: correction, it's a US DOT website.

 

[JAA]

Guys, self-driving cars are an engineering problem that is already close to being solved.

How do you define "solved"? Does solved mean no defects, no accidents, no SW problems?

I would wager your definition of solved is different than mine.

Good question. We already have self-driving cars carrying people around in a few nicer-weather cities. That's very good, but I don't think I'll really consider this project complete until I see them on snowy roads and longer trips.

There will be accidents, but my understanding is that they're already significantly safer than cars operated by human drivers. Not 100% sure about that.

Maybe I dont drive enough to really be annoyed with driving. I would love it if I didnt have to drive, but at the expense of some money capitalistic companies software practices? No way

I dont want to fear monger here, and its obvious I dont like the airlines, but I would encourage folks to be afraid of all these quality issues with planes. I have zero domain knowledge with the plane/airline industry, but I do know the software and hardware industries. All of these quality issues has the smell of corporation cost cutting, outsourcing, automation, etc over well trained, experienced, and compensated staff. IMO when we start to see things like this, quality can become a house of cards very quickly with a long tail to correct. If it gets really bad then you need to hire and train all new personnel on older systems which is expensive yes, but it takes months to do. And while flying is still crazy safe, I am starting to worry.

 

[Instinctive]

As someone who will never have a self driving car, I cant wait for them. Remember the time the self driving car road raged you? Me neither!

I also have a feeling it will create an us vs them bully mentality where aggressive driving will be more rampant against self driving cars.

This is a technology that I feel kind of bad about missing out on. The idea that I could hop into a car and tell it to drive me to a city 12 hours away and I just sit there and watch movies or read or watch the world go by in the meantime sounds extremely appealing, and I say that as somebody who enjoys driving.

In a better world, we would just have way more passenger trains that could get you to that city in far less than 12 hours

Here is the rub about flying. While Im sure the median flight time is still much faster than trains, I believe the long tail distribution of flight delays is a roll of the dice these days. Meaning, while on average a train is, lets say 2x longer than a plane flight, add in all the travel/check/check time with flights coupled with the change of a multi-hour, maybe overnight, delay, flights to me seem less and less appealing.

How about this hypothetical. Which of these 2 travel options would you take:

• Arrive at your destination at the fastest time possible with a 1/6 chance be delayed to the next day
• Arrive at your destination at 2x the fastest time possible with a 1% chance of delay

My biggest issue with flying is for vacations. If I have a 4 day get-away scheduled out and I get delayed a night, I lose a day of vacation. The amount of value I place on a day of vacation far exceeds any of these costs or probabilities. And until I see airlines actually start caring about peoples lives (why would they?) then I want to find any alternative method of transportation than flying.

/bitter flyer

I took 192 flights last year. Up and down the east coast, throughout TX and the Midwest, even a couple CA trips. I was delayed to the next day zero times. 1/6 is an insane estimate.

Consider yourself lucky. My experience is vastly different than yours. I would wager I am worse than 50/50 right now on delays.

My last 2 flights out of Logan to Austin direct were both delayed. One was 6 hours and one was 12 hours. It was horrific and Delta is a POS.

My family of 5 was delayed overnight from SLC to BOS through MSP (on the way back from vacation thankfully). Delta told us the next flight available for us was in 3 days. We split the family and made it home the next night. Horrific.

My wife and I were delayed overnight coming back from Fresno to PHX. This vacation was for my wife's 50th bday and had that overnight delay been out to Fresno I would have lost my ****.

Maybe a little lucky, but stats would indicate not really. Sounds like you've been remarkably unlucky in a tiny sample size. I hazard drawing sweeping conclusions from small samples in all aspects of life!

76% of American Airlines flights are delayed (I almost always fly American). Just above 1% are cancelled.

So I should expect to have been delayed on around 45 flights. I think that's probably true. I don't have data on length of delay, but probably twice a month I was annoyed at how late I got in. So call that about half of delays being at least an hour.

I definitely had 2 cancellations. Maybe 4 or 5, which would be unlucky. Of course, even my personal travel I plan with a clear plan B. So I haven't had a cancellation impact me really beyond just taking a later flight.

FWIW Delta's customer service and their hard product are each outstanding. I think I took 10-15 Delta flights this year, so I have no status. They've always treated me extremely well, and I've been impressed.

I think you have the bolded backwards.

According to the bls site, in 2024 about 70% of AA flights were on time.

eta: correction, it's a US DOT website.

Yeah just a typo. Aren't should be the word, obviously. Will go edit haha.

 

[Instinctive]

Guys, self-driving cars are an engineering problem that is already close to being solved.

How do you define "solved"? Does solved mean no defects, no accidents, no SW problems?

I would wager your definition of solved is different than mine.

Good question. We already have self-driving cars carrying people around in a few nicer-weather cities. That's very good, but I don't think I'll really consider this project complete until I see them on snowy roads and longer trips.

There will be accidents, but my understanding is that they're already significantly safer than cars operated by human drivers. Not 100% sure about that.

Maybe I dont drive enough to really be annoyed with driving. I would love it if I didnt have to drive, but at the expense of some money capitalistic companies software practices? No way

I dont want to fear monger here, and its obvious I dont like the airlines, but I would encourage folks to be afraid of all these quality issues with planes. I have zero domain knowledge with the plane/airline industry, but I do know the software and hardware industries. All of these quality issues has the smell of corporation cost cutting, outsourcing, automation, etc over well trained, experienced, and compensated staff. IMO when we start to see things like this, quality can become a house of cards very quickly with a long tail to correct. If it gets really bad then you need to hire and train all new personnel on older systems which is expensive yes, but it takes months to do. And while flying is still crazy safe, I am starting to worry.

I mean yeah now you do sound a little crazy. Safety is not a comparison where driving beats flying lol. % of passengers injured per mile driven is WAY higher than equivalent flown. Same holds true for deaths. Especially if you limit to just commercial flying.

 

[JAA]

Guys, self-driving cars are an engineering problem that is already close to being solved.

How do you define "solved"? Does solved mean no defects, no accidents, no SW problems?

I would wager your definition of solved is different than mine.

Good question. We already have self-driving cars carrying people around in a few nicer-weather cities. That's very good, but I don't think I'll really consider this project complete until I see them on snowy roads and longer trips.

There will be accidents, but my understanding is that they're already significantly safer than cars operated by human drivers. Not 100% sure about that.

Maybe I dont drive enough to really be annoyed with driving. I would love it if I didnt have to drive, but at the expense of some money capitalistic companies software practices? No way

I dont want to fear monger here, and its obvious I dont like the airlines, but I would encourage folks to be afraid of all these quality issues with planes. I have zero domain knowledge with the plane/airline industry, but I do know the software and hardware industries. All of these quality issues has the smell of corporation cost cutting, outsourcing, automation, etc over well trained, experienced, and compensated staff. IMO when we start to see things like this, quality can become a house of cards very quickly with a long tail to correct. If it gets really bad then you need to hire and train all new personnel on older systems which is expensive yes, but it takes months to do. And while flying is still crazy safe, I am starting to worry.

I mean yeah now you do sound a little crazy. Safety is not a comparison where driving beats flying lol. % of passengers injured per mile driven is WAY higher than equivalent flown. Same holds true for deaths. Especially if you limit to just commercial flying.

My ancedotal observations watching the news that the amount of flights having issues and needing to divert and/or emergency procedures is increasing. Sure, this could be thanks to the internet, but it feels like every week now a flight has an issue. I look forward to being wrong as I still need to fly.

PS - also realize what it would take for me to be proven right. I hope that never happens.

 

[belljr]

Guys, self-driving cars are an engineering problem that is already close to being solved.

How do you define "solved"? Does solved mean no defects, no accidents, no SW problems?

I would wager your definition of solved is different than mine.

Good question. We already have self-driving cars carrying people around in a few nicer-weather cities. That's very good, but I don't think I'll really consider this project complete until I see them on snowy roads and longer trips.

There will be accidents, but my understanding is that they're already significantly safer than cars operated by human drivers. Not 100% sure about that.

Maybe I dont drive enough to really be annoyed with driving. I would love it if I didnt have to drive, but at the expense of some money capitalistic companies software practices? No way

I dont want to fear monger here, and its obvious I dont like the airlines, but I would encourage folks to be afraid of all these quality issues with planes. I have zero domain knowledge with the plane/airline industry, but I do know the software and hardware industries. All of these quality issues has the smell of corporation cost cutting, outsourcing, automation, etc over well trained, experienced, and compensated staff. IMO when we start to see things like this, quality can become a house of cards very quickly with a long tail to correct. If it gets really bad then you need to hire and train all new personnel on older systems which is expensive yes, but it takes months to do. And while flying is still crazy safe, I am starting to worry.

I mean yeah now you do sound a little crazy. Safety is not a comparison where driving beats flying lol. % of passengers injured per mile driven is WAY higher than equivalent flown. Same holds true for deaths. Especially if you limit to just commercial flying.

Well I work on air traffic tracking software and that part is just fine

 

[Instinctive]

Guys, self-driving cars are an engineering problem that is already close to being solved.

How do you define "solved"? Does solved mean no defects, no accidents, no SW problems?

I would wager your definition of solved is different than mine.

Good question. We already have self-driving cars carrying people around in a few nicer-weather cities. That's very good, but I don't think I'll really consider this project complete until I see them on snowy roads and longer trips.

There will be accidents, but my understanding is that they're already significantly safer than cars operated by human drivers. Not 100% sure about that.

Maybe I dont drive enough to really be annoyed with driving. I would love it if I didnt have to drive, but at the expense of some money capitalistic companies software practices? No way

I dont want to fear monger here, and its obvious I dont like the airlines, but I would encourage folks to be afraid of all these quality issues with planes. I have zero domain knowledge with the plane/airline industry, but I do know the software and hardware industries. All of these quality issues has the smell of corporation cost cutting, outsourcing, automation, etc over well trained, experienced, and compensated staff. IMO when we start to see things like this, quality can become a house of cards very quickly with a long tail to correct. If it gets really bad then you need to hire and train all new personnel on older systems which is expensive yes, but it takes months to do. And while flying is still crazy safe, I am starting to worry.

I mean yeah now you do sound a little crazy. Safety is not a comparison where driving beats flying lol. % of passengers injured per mile driven is WAY higher than equivalent flown. Same holds true for deaths. Especially if you limit to just commercial flying.

My ancedotal observations watching the news that the amount of flights having issues and needing to divert and/or emergency procedures is increasing. Sure, this could be thanks to the internet, but it feels like every week now a flight has an issue. I look forward to being wrong as I still need to fly.

PS - also realize what it would take for me to be proven right. I hope that never happens.

This is the definition of fear mongering lol. How many of those issues have injured anyone? At all? It's a ridiculous take. Driving is dramatically more dangerous even within five miles of home.

It's also confusing knowing something more and it actually happening more.

 

[JAA]

Guys, self-driving cars are an engineering problem that is already close to being solved.

How do you define "solved"? Does solved mean no defects, no accidents, no SW problems?

I would wager your definition of solved is different than mine.

Good question. We already have self-driving cars carrying people around in a few nicer-weather cities. That's very good, but I don't think I'll really consider this project complete until I see them on snowy roads and longer trips.

There will be accidents, but my understanding is that they're already significantly safer than cars operated by human drivers. Not 100% sure about that.

Maybe I dont drive enough to really be annoyed with driving. I would love it if I didnt have to drive, but at the expense of some money capitalistic companies software practices? No way

I dont want to fear monger here, and its obvious I dont like the airlines, but I would encourage folks to be afraid of all these quality issues with planes. I have zero domain knowledge with the plane/airline industry, but I do know the software and hardware industries. All of these quality issues has the smell of corporation cost cutting, outsourcing, automation, etc over well trained, experienced, and compensated staff. IMO when we start to see things like this, quality can become a house of cards very quickly with a long tail to correct. If it gets really bad then you need to hire and train all new personnel on older systems which is expensive yes, but it takes months to do. And while flying is still crazy safe, I am starting to worry.

I mean yeah now you do sound a little crazy. Safety is not a comparison where driving beats flying lol. % of passengers injured per mile driven is WAY higher than equivalent flown. Same holds true for deaths. Especially if you limit to just commercial flying.

My ancedotal observations watching the news that the amount of flights having issues and needing to divert and/or emergency procedures is increasing. Sure, this could be thanks to the internet, but it feels like every week now a flight has an issue. I look forward to being wrong as I still need to fly.

PS - also realize what it would take for me to be proven right. I hope that never happens.

This is the definition of fear mongering lol. How many of those issues have injured anyone? At all? It's a ridiculous take. Driving is dramatically more dangerous even within five miles of home.

It's also confusing knowing something more and it actually happening more.

I wont argue with your points, but when I cleary call it anecdotal observation, I think I get a little benefit of the doubt here.

Also, I havnt been comparing the accident rate of driving vs flying, so not sure why you are making that point.

 

[Sand]

There will be accidents, but my understanding is that they're already significantly safer than cars operated by human drivers. Not 100% sure about that.

This is from the association, but they report Waymo is 85% safer than human driven vehicles.

Research & Discoveries (R&D): Waymo Reduces Crash Rates Compared to Human Drivers Over 7+ Million AV Miles | Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association (AVIA)

The unified voice of the diverse companies working toward a world where safe and trusted AVs increase road safety, boost supply chains and improve mobility opportunities for all.

theavindustry.org

IMO - this is the way this is going to go. Insurance costs will drive people to autonomous vehicles. A manual vehicle will be a luxury.

 

[JAA]

Fear mongering: https://abcnews.go.com/US/atlanta-delta-flight-plane-evacuation-slides/story?id=117552672

 

[brun]

Really curious what happens when we have real FSD cars (no operator controls needed at all). Will you still need a license? Will insurance premiums reduce significantly or be transferred to the manufacturer? Will motels go out of business because you can just hop in, strap in and nap in the car all the way to your destination? Will traffic monitoring and police be reduced? Will The Fast and the Furious and/or GTA franchises come to an end?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Really curious what happens when we have real FSD cars (no operator controls needed at all). Will you still need a license? Will insurance premiums reduce significantly or be transferred to the manufacturer? Will motels go out of business because you can just hop in, strap in and nap in the car all the way to your destination? Will traffic monitoring and police be reduced? Will The Fast and the Furious and/or GTA franchises come to an end?

Drunk "driving" laws will also be interesting.

 

[Chaos34]

Really curious what happens when we have real FSD cars (no operator controls needed at all).

We already have them. Waymo (owned by Google) is in a few cities operating driverless taxis.

Tesla's robotaxi doesn't have a steering wheel, brake or accelerator pedal. They'll be deployed by the thousands this year.

I'm 3 hours from Vegas. I get in my car. Open the map. Tap my brothers address. Hit the fsd button. I do not touch the steering wheel, brake or accelerator. Period. From my garage to his driveway. But you can't sleep in it yet.

Google and Tesla chose different paths. Google was in the game before AI was so powerful so relied on Lidar and software pretrained on a region's map. Thus a few cities. Tesla is using cameras and more advanced AI so they can drive anywhere. Google's GM recently said Tesla has the advantage.

x.com

x.com

 

[Bottomfeeder Sports]

Guys, self-driving cars are an engineering problem that is already close to being solved. Rail construction is a public policy problem that will likely require federal legislation to solve. For an assortment of reasons, there is no way we can build a national HSR system. It's not going to happen. Be happy with your electric self-driving car in ten years.

Assuming that the national high speed rail system isn't just self driving cars "linking up" somehow in specified high speed lanes on the minimally modified, existing highway system.

 

[ericttspikes]

I can see self driving having applications like taxis and be an option for long trips or long haul trucking, I have a hard time believing it will be ubiquitous in our culture. Driving = freedom. Can't really envision a scenario where a majority of people give up manually driving. Even in a scenario like rush hour traffic. I loathe bumper to bumper traffic and can imagine just kicking back until I get to work, but feel I'd be sitting there going nuts that my self driving car didn't just switch lanes to get past the slow car in front of me or didn't get off the expressway and try another route. Even with cruise control on long trips I'm constantly taking over to speed or change lanes because I'm bored sitting there going 70 in the right lane, or really want to get past the 3 semis in front of me. I'm always trying to make that 5 hour trip in 4. The theory of full self driving seems great but I think my brain couldn't handle ceding control. Maybe that's just me.

 

[TripItUp]

I can see self driving having applications like taxis and be an option for long trips or long haul trucking, I have a hard time believing it will be ubiquitous in our culture. Driving = freedom. Can't really envision a scenario where a majority of people give up manually driving. Even in a scenario like rush hour traffic. I loathe bumper to bumper traffic and can imagine just kicking back until I get to work, but feel I'd be sitting there going nuts that my self driving car didn't just switch lanes to get past the slow car in front of me or didn't get off the expressway and try another route. Even with cruise control on long trips I'm constantly taking over to speed or change lanes because I'm bored sitting there going 70 in the right lane, or really want to get past the 3 semis in front of me. I'm always trying to make that 5 hour trip in 4. The theory of full self driving seems great but I think my brain couldn't handle ceding control. Maybe that's just me.

It will take time for the older generations to adjust. But like other innovations such as the laptop computer and mobile phone, the boomers will get onboard. The benefits will be too difficult to resist. It's difficult to see it now, but it will be obvious in 10 years or less imho. The younger generations will adopt right away IMHO, particularly with the cost savings involved in many situations.

Economics and convenience will drive the change.

 

[WVU Alum]

My boomer parents would love FSD and would adopt now if it had been an option when they leased their last vehicles. Have already talked about it being a huge factor in shopping for their next vehicle. Mom commutes less than 2 miles, step dad is 5 miles.
I am leaning hard into seeking out FSD in the next year or two when it is my time to get a car. I commute 1.5 hours one way.
My Dad could care less about self driving and probably would never bother using it.

 

[the moops]

The theory of full self driving seems great but I think my brain couldn't handle ceding control.

I think it very easily would once you are able to just watch a movie or work on a laptop or take a nap while getting from point A to B.

 

[ericttspikes]

I can see self driving having applications like taxis and be an option for long trips or long haul trucking, I have a hard time believing it will be ubiquitous in our culture. Driving = freedom. Can't really envision a scenario where a majority of people give up manually driving. Even in a scenario like rush hour traffic. I loathe bumper to bumper traffic and can imagine just kicking back until I get to work, but feel I'd be sitting there going nuts that my self driving car didn't just switch lanes to get past the slow car in front of me or didn't get off the expressway and try another route. Even with cruise control on long trips I'm constantly taking over to speed or change lanes because I'm bored sitting there going 70 in the right lane, or really want to get past the 3 semis in front of me. I'm always trying to make that 5 hour trip in 4. The theory of full self driving seems great but I think my brain couldn't handle ceding control. Maybe that's just me.

It will take time for the older generations to adjust. But like other innovations such as the laptop computer and mobile phone, the boomers will get onboard. The benefits will be too difficult to resist. It's difficult to see it now, but it will be obvious in 10 years or less imho. The younger generations will adopt right away IMHO, particularly with the cost savings involved in many situations.

Economics and convenience will drive the change.

Dunno. I mostly see young people doing 90 and driving like they are playing Forza. Like I can’t see my 20 something cryptobro neighbor trading in his tricked out BMW that he regularly races with his friends on the highway for a self driving anything. I can actually see oldsters who prefer going 55 and don’t like driving at night being all over self driving though. I do agree that it’s coming whether people want it or not.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Guys, self-driving cars are an engineering problem that is already close to being solved. Rail construction is a public policy problem that will likely require federal legislation to solve. For an assortment of reasons, there is no way we can build a national HSR system. It's not going to happen. Be happy with your electric self-driving car in ten years.

Assuming that the national high speed rail system isn't just self driving cars "linking up" somehow in specified high speed lanes on the minimally modified, existing highway system.

Right. We can make that happen much easier than high speed rail.