I think Alexander IS solid acorss the board, but he does have some weeks where he doesnt do much (see weeks 2, 7, 12, 15 last year). Also, with the #2 WR up in the air in Seattle this year, the pasing game could fall a bit, which could cut into his numbers a bit....Overall, a safe top 3 pick that is unarguable.
Priest, when healthy, rarely fails to produce silly numbers. He didnt lay ANY eggs until he got hurt, scoring (or having 100+ yds) in every game he played in. He had a season ending injury on 2002, played a full seaosn in 2003, then had season ending injury in 2004. If you believe in trends, this will be a season without a big injury from Priest
The thing about Priest is this: If you draft him, you pretty much want to lock up LJ as well, but at what cost? Thats where you have to decide if you want to spend a high pick to insure him - but if you do, youre almost guaranteed gaudy stats week in and week out from your RB1 whether or not Priest goes down. On the other hand, if you draft Alexander and he goes down, his backup probably wont produce at the same level, but you didnt draft Morris anyway. Where the Priest owner takes Priests backup, the Alexander owner would draft a starting RB.
So you have to ask yourself - is drafting Holmes, and then taking LJ where youd otherwise take a STARTING RB worth it? Lets look at 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1: You draft Alexander in the 1st with a top 3 draft slot, then say Curtis Martin in the 2nd. Lets also say youre taking your next RB in round 4 or 5. You dont have Holmes, so you dont need LJ. Lets say you get Dunn late in the 4th. You have a nice stable of RBs so far, and decent insurance if one of your starters goes down. Back to this scenario in a minute.
Scenario 2: You draft Holmes at that same slot, then get Martin in the 2nd. Now it comes time to draft your RB3 in the 4th/5th turn, and you take LJ. Your RB stable at this point is good, but you only have insurance for Priest. is this a bad thing? maybe not. What this scenario does is makes you draft RB 4 a bit earlier than you would otherwise, due to having to insure both starting RBs. I for one usually have 4 RBs by round 7 or 8 anyway, so it wouldnt change my thinking much.
Now, in scenario 1, Lets say Alexander goes down. You plug in Dunn and he does what he usually does, and is quite serviceable. But your starting Rbs are Martin and Dunn. Doesnt exactly set the world on fire.
In scenario 2, lets say Preist goes down. You plug in LJ, and your starters are LJ and Martin. Which tandem would you rather have at RB at this point? No brainer.
Now the flip side to both scenarios is if RB2 goes down (and RB1 stays healthy). In scenario 1, you can plug Dunn in and again hes quite serviceable. In scenario 2, if your RB2 goes down, you have to have an option aother than LJ, and heres where the true dilemma lies.
If you take Priest and then LJ, I think it forces you to take RB4 a little sooner than you might if you drafted Alexander. But to me the reward is greater with the Priest/LJ combo. Where Id usually take WR2 or WR3 in round 6 or 7, Id take my RB4 and wouldnt be losing too much value by waiting one extra round to take my next WR.
Now about the situation of Priest not playing if theyre out of contention, I dont think he sits. This may be his last year, and when he leaves, its LJ's job. Barring injury (or clinching early, which I dont see happenning), Priest will play. If KC is out of contention, they already know what they have in LJ, and if Preist looks like he may retire after this year, why risk the future RB in meaningless games? I think Vermeil will ride Priest as long as he can, so I dont worry much about Priest being held out of playing. I DO think that if KC has a game in hand, Priest WILL come out and LJ will get playing time. So that in itself presents a unique situation: You could actually use LJ as a starter for a bye week, and he has just as much of a chance to play and score as alot of other RBs (remember the game last year vs Atlanta where Priest had 4 TDs by halftime, and Blaylock had 4 TDs in the 2nd half? This was before Johnson became the #2 RB. Those numbers could have easily been LJs, and it wouldnt surprise me if this kind of thing happened a couple of times in 05).
Now if Seattle clinches a spot early, I could see Holmgren holding Alexander out until the playoffs. He doesnt have an LJ waiting in the wings, so he has to protect his bread and butter for playoff time.
Bottom line, I think drafting the Priest/LJ combo cant be beat, as long as you draft smart and make sure you have enough RBs in case of injuries. As I said before, I dont think too much value is lost if you have to take your RB4 in lieu of a WR once rounds 6-7 come around. The dropoff at WR at that point isnt much.
BTW, I have pick 3 and know for a fact that LT and Manning are going 1-2, and Im taking Priest with the above strategy in mind.