Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Simple poll, Vote with your mind, not your heart (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JohnnyU
- Start date
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
New England has not played well on the road against a good team since September.
Denver is 8-0 at home this season.
Yes, Brady is better than Plummer, but the Broncos have a better running game and a better defense.
I see a heckuva battle with the Broncos emerging with a 24-17 win.
Denver is 8-0 at home this season.
Yes, Brady is better than Plummer, but the Broncos have a better running game and a better defense.
I see a heckuva battle with the Broncos emerging with a 24-17 win.
Since his return, they have played one winning team on the road (the Chiefs) and lost 26-16 (and the game really wasn't that close). That is hardly dominant.
Last edited by a moderator:
-OZ-
Footballguy
Heart vote as a Kansan and Michigan fan - Pats.Mind vote - Pats, but this might just be the best game in the playoffs. NE can and will stop the run (keep under 100 total yards) and force Plummer to make a couple bad throws. Jake has been incredible this year by not making mistakes, but we all know that BB has ways of forcing QBs to screw up. I'd feel much more confident in the prediction if Harrison were in, but I don't see Plummer taking over this game and winning.NE, 28-21
f360spyder
Footballguy
I don't think Denver's secondary will be that great vs Brady. Bailey, maybe, but not the rest.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Plummer rarely has had to take over a game and win it in Denver. They usually do not put him in that position. And while Belichick is great at getting opposing QB's to make mistakes, Shanahan is a master at finding weaknesses on opposing defenses and he will find New England's.
Ah, if only it was always that simple. But wait, Tom Brady lost games this year to Jake Delhomme, Trent Green and Drew Brees. How is that possible? I mean, Brady is better than those guys, right? Even Joe Montana, called by many the greatest QB ever, lost his share of playoff games to inferior quarterbacks. The fact remains that while Brady is clearly better than Plummer, it is a TEAM sport and ultimately, I think the Broncos having the better team will result in them winning.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
I think the key matchup will be Denver’s D-Line vs. NE O-line. Denver has so much depth on the D-line they can sub in fresh players and NE will be forced to keep playing their rookie starters. As the game goes on eventually Denver pass-rushers will start getting to Brady. I don’t like betting against Brady but my head says that Denver will win.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
The smart money is on Denver. The line right now is 3, but it should be 6 1/2.Denver is a really good team and they are phenomenal at home. They can win with the run, they can win with the pass, and they can win with their defense. They are extremely well balanced.NE is also a very good team, but home field advantage is to much to overcome in this one.
Challenge Everything
Footballguy
Until they get beat they are the team I would not want to play.That being said, I would want to be the team to beat them.The air in Denver will come into effect in a big way come game time though.New England - 24, Denver 17I just dont see it happening that Denver beats them.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
To be honest, as a Colts fan, Denver is the team that scares me. Because of that, the Colts will have to play Denver again. I really hope that NE wins, because I believe the Colts are due to lose to Denver if they get past Pittsburgh. I remember feeling the same way about Ky in basketball one year when they beat LSU 3 times (twice in reg season and once in SEC tourney), and lost to them in the NCAA tourney.
Mr. Pink
Footballguy
Denver at home...sure. Devner a better overall team...not so sure. Granted, I'm a Pats homer but this team is not the same team that lost by 8 in Denver earlier this season. I just don't see the Broncos rolling up the kind of rushing yards they did this time around.I'm confident the Pats win, not comfortably, by they win nonetheless.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Denver is the team that scares me the most. I would much rather the Pats play Indy in Indy than Denver in Denver. But regardless of what SSOG, Pony Boy and Ghost Rider say, I just can't buy the idea that Denver is de facto better than the world champs because they had a better regular season.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
In REGULAR season games in Denver in the Brady era . . .2001: DEN over NE 31-202003: NE over DEN 30-262005: DEN over NE 28-20(also DEN over NE in 2002 in NE 24-16)
msommer
Footballguy
I like Denver's chances to win but this is a must see game.I believe someone in the media pointed out that when Bill Belichick meets a team for the second time in a season his team usually does better.Counter that with Mile High/Invesco and the thin air. That is tough on any visitor, SB champion or not.Denver has a strong D-Line - I think one that matches up well against the Patriots O-Line. The Pats cannot afford too many holding penalties from Mankins because the Broncos can put points on the board. Pressure, not necesarily sacks is key, as are penalties. If Dillon doesn't run better than he did against Jax then Brady will have to earn his MVP honors...The Broncos secondary is a big question mark. If Darrent Williams is really healthy that will be a big boost, I would guess Skeletor would want to keep firm evidence of that one way or the other under wraps.Nick Ferguson will have to have a big game in coverage.Denver does not run well on 3-4 fronts historically and the NE LB corps is different from the first game - or is it? Even the NSA would not be able to get from Belichick whether Bruschi can play or not. I think he can if they need him to - which they did not against JAX.MA up the middle (is he healthy) or Tater on the edge - it will have to be e mix and I would not be surprise to see both on the field at times.I sure hope Denver will not need to use Dayne as the inside runner.Plummer is not Leftwich - ie. when Colvin or McGinest comes charging he does have the ability to scramble for his life - what then happens is anyone's guess and Shanahan's nightmare. Plummer is overdue for a few stupid mistakes, still he can sling it to Rod Smith and Lelie. Putzier and Alexander (and possible wr3) might have big games.Will Troy Brown have to line up both sides again?If I were to guess I would think that BB/Brady will pick on the nickel back and the linebackers to start the game. Dink-Dunk ad nauseam - then the bullet to Givens or Branch.I am really looking forward to this game
pats3in4
Footballguy
I'm picking the Broncos, which might come as a surprise considering my user name. However, the Pats team that lost 28-20 is not the same one as now...1. The DL is completely different with Seymour healthy. He missed the first Broncos game. During the 1st 3 games of the year before he got hurt (Pats 2-1), nobody ran on the Pats. Since he's been back, only the Chiefs ran on the Pats and only for the 1st half (and they run on everybody all the time).2. The ILB combo that started the year of Chad Brown and Monte Beisel was AWFUL. This was the combo that the Broncos ran all over. Since then, the Pats have enjoyed the return of Bruschi, but another move that rarely gets mentioned is the VERY successful transition of Mike Vrabel to ILB. The Vrabel/Bruschi combo (and even Vrabel/Beisel vs. Jax with Bruschi out) has been excellent, and with Seymour's return, the run D has been the league's best over the 2nd half.3. RCB Duane Starks, everybody's favorite target (Rod Smith torched him repeatedly in the first game), is on IR and has been replaced by rookie Ellis Hobbs who has done an excellent job as the starter. I'd be very surprised if Smith can have a similar game against Hobbs as he did against Starks.4. Top two RBs Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk were both out against Denver earlier, putting the running game into the hands of FB Patrick Pass. Pass actually had a decent game vs. Denver, but he's still not the running threat that Dillon is or the pass-catching threat that Faulk is.There are a handful of other changes, notably the great full-time play of Rosie Colvin at Vrabel's OLB spot and the surprisingly good play from Atrell Hawkins at SS (the 5th starting SS this year as the Pats struggled to find a replacement for the IR'ed Rodney Harrison). There have been recent improvements in play from other starters, notably NT Vince Wilfork and FS Eugene Wilson, but I wouldn't necessarily single them out as I have the first four changes.Yet I'm still picking the Broncos. The Broncos are an excellent home team as Jake Plummer seems to play mistake-free in Invesco. I suspect the Pats will stop their running game, but I think Jake will be up to the task of taking the game into his own hands. He won't have to score too much, though, because it will be the Broncos D that wins the game. I'll be very surprised if Brady throws a single ball in Champ Bailey's direction as the Pats tend to completely avoid CBs of his caliber; Bailey missed the 2nd half of the earlier game which likely played a key role in the Pats' attempted comeback. However, Darrent Williams is a very good CB at the other spot so the Pats will have to force matchups against the Denver nickle/dime packages. The Broncos have a good front seven and mix their looks well, which clearly threw Brady off for at least the first half. They do a good job blitzing, especially mixing in CB blitzes which definitely gave Brady trouble in the first game. And finally, if there's any place where Brady has the potential to have one of his "off" games, it's on the road. If this game was in Foxboro, Denver wouldn't have a chance as Brady plays mistake-free at home, but his rare 3-4 INT games always come on the road. He already had one of those in KC, so he might not put another one of those games up, but the potential is there, especially against this D.
Franknbeans
Footballguy
Unless Brady goes down, they'll play another week.
bostonfred
Footballguy
That's pretty compelling. Do you have any more meaningless full season statistics you'd like to look at?2006 Turnover Margin rankingsEN #2 in NFL
NE #22 in NFL
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
Great post. I think Denver will win, but I think it has a good chance to be one of the best games of the year. As someone else said, "must see".
Sorry. You're obviously right.What happened in 3 of the past 4 years is much more meaningful than anything that actually happened this season.Damn, now I hope DEN doesn't even show up. There's no way they can win. Just forfeit, advise all other teams to do the same, and declare NE the kings of football forever henceforth, and just play the regular season to rake in some $$$.I apologize for being so stupid.
Last edited by a moderator:
bostonfred
Footballguy
The post you clipped - which was all about the Pats' regular season numbers - made yet another comparison of the Patriots' 2005 full season statistics. I think you know better than to think those represent the Patriots' 2005 playoff team. If you don't, then your apology is accepted.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I agree with Fred on this one. Hypothetically, if the Pats were 13-3 this year instead of 10-6 and had lost by 8 in Denver this year, would that change anything at this point? No--the Pats would still be playing in Denver and people would still be saying Denver already beat them. N.E. had a lot of injuries in their other title runs. They had no secondary last year and still won. They are not the same team in the playoffs as they are in the regular season. They know how to win, and most of the time people were saying that they should not beat IND/TEN/PIT/STL/ETC. over the years.Denver, while a good regular season team this year, has yet to show that they have the chops to win in primtime post-season games (at least not in recent years).If the Broncos win, hats off to them, they beat a battle tested team. However, people can ramble off stats all day long about what the Pats did early in the season and it won't matter. Regular season stats at this point matter as much as preseason stats did when the season started.
Mike Herman
Footballguy
I've run the numbers... Elam should score 6 points and Vinatieri 4. Assuming there are no two point conversions or a safety, that meansenver will score either 42, 24, or 6 pointsNew England will score either 28 or 10 points
enver will score either 42, 24, or 6 pointsNew England will score either 28 or 10 points
SSOG
Moderator
You're right. It's a pretty big stretch to say that the team that has consistantly played better for 16 straight games is the better team. It might just be a statistical quirk.I mean, who is to say that New England is really any better than the Jets? Sure, they played better for a full 16 games, but that might be a total fluke. It's a shame NYJ doesn't have a chance to prove that they're every bit as good as the Pats in the postseason.
+0+0
+1*
+4*
+1*
+0*
+2*^
+2*
+1
+4
+0
+1
+3
-1
+1
+2*
That's Denver's turnover margin by game.
* = 0 Denver turnovers
^ = Denver lost a fumble on a desperation lateral play with no time left on the clock attempting a comeback. I did not include that turnover.
You will notice that Denver only had a negative turnover differential ONCE over the entire season. You will also notice that Denver failed to win the turnover battle (negative or 0 turnover differential) five times in sixteen games.
See above.
I'm calling B-freaking-S on the bolded section.In the preseason, starters play for about a quarter, sometimes two. Teams use vanilla offensive gameplans designed not to give anything away. During the regular season, starters play for the entire game. Coordinators scheme aggressively, not holding anything back, except for very very rare occassions late in the season. During the playoffs, starters play for the entire game. Coordinators scheme aggressively, not holding anything back. Oh yeah, I can see how the regular season shows us nothing at all about how a team will perform in the postseason. Yes, the regular season is as different from the postseason as the preseason is from the regular season.
Do you mean to tell me we can't assume that Steve Smith is the most dangerous receiver, Chicago the most dangerous defense, Denver the best home team, or Shaun Alexander the best runningback? Is any team that faces the Pats going to for a second consider that Brady won't be the biggest threat?
Heck, if the regular season statistics don't matter, how can you even say that NE's defense has improved since key starters returned?
David Yudkin
Footballguy
You're right. Historically, the Pats would have no chance to win again if we only look at historical data. But looking at the teams on the field, the Pats look well prepared and a lot more in sync than they did in October or Novemebr--regardless of the stats, the records, the titles, etc.The bottom line for me, anyways, is that no one (yet) has been able to knock the Pats off of their game plan and winning ways from December on in their run of successful seasons (2002 being the exception).
When a team can get the Patriots scrambling in the post season like they were early in this season, then the Pats will lose. It sure sounds easy. But teams up until now have had a tremendous time doing so.
01: Ended with 8 wins in a row
03: Ended with 15 wins in a row
04: Won 11 of last 12
05: Won 7 of last 8 (Miami doesn't count as they intended to lose)
So how long do you expect the streak to continue? NE in its 3 of 4 year run never had to play in the wildcard weekend. That's a huge advantage that they don't have this year.One thing that is as certain about sports streaks as death or taxes - streaks end. Always.
How many more years do you expect the NE/Brady/Belicheck playoff streak to continue unabated?
Last edited by a moderator:
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Regular season stats don't matter because the game is decided on the field of play, not by statistics from 2005 or 1995.The team that has fewer turnovers and mistakes is likely going to win. This isn't news, it's a common fact. In the post season, the Pats have shown that they are very adept at not turning the ball over, make very few mistakes, and have been good at causing their opponents to make mistakes.If that remains true against Denver or Indianapolis, then the Pats have a very good chance of winning. This applies to all teams, not just New England.That's my perspective of who the Patriots are as a team. What they did with a patchwork team in October or November is not how I view the team that will be playing next week--no matter what the stats from that period may show.
Similar threads
- Poll
