Sleeper Alert: Rob Kelley - RB - WAS (2 Viewers)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Don't overlook the fact that Gruden - or any coach for that matter - probably loves that Kelley almost always generates positive yardage. Not sure that will carry for future years, but just because he's not explosive or the most athletic, doesn't mean he's going to be summarily pushed aside.

I don't think anyone will overlook it. 

But I also don't think the Redskins will retain anyone other than Thompson of their current RBs.  The draft and FA will be flush with RBs who have more upside. Gaining 3 when you need 2 is awesome. Gaining 3 when you need 4 is not. 

Positive yardage with no home run threat is not a quality coaches want in a starting RB.  

Maybe Gru loves him and they'll tab him the starter next year - I seriously doubt it though. If they don't draft 2 RBs I'll be shocked. Then again, I was a bit shocked that they didn't bring in more help for Matt Jones this year. 

 

[JFS171]

Honest question... do they have better metrics?  Ware maybe but is Rawls really that much more "athletic"?

I'll answer my own question. Kelley's metric numbers are closer to Arian Foster than they are Rawls. 

I'm not talking about speed necessarily - 40-times are pretty irrelevant for RBs IMO.  More concerned about their agility scores and their burst metrics (3-cone, short shuttle, vertical, broad).

Rawls posted a 35.5" vertical and a 116" broad with pro-day times of 7.12 in the 3-cone and 4.4 in the short shuttle -- a rather pedestrian 11.52 Agility Score.

Ware was hurt at the combine, so we only have pro-day numbers: 35.5" vertical, 119" broad, 7.07 3-cone with a 4.27 short shuttle -- good for a 11.34 Agility Score (which still isn't elite)

Kelley only has pro-day numbers as well: 29.5" vertical (-6" to both Rawls and Ware), 110" broad (6" less than Rawls and 9" less than Ware), 7.19 3-cone (slower than both again), and 4.63 short shuttle (which is really slow) -- good for a 11.82 Agility Score.  Those are Jeremy Hill type numbers, but Hill was a 2nd rounder.

I'm not saying Kelley can't be a useful RB... I have a hard time believing he's a stable dynasty asset, however (I think he's a hold if you have him -- I probably wouldn't be buying though). 

 

[NajehHejan]

I'm rolling out Kelley this week again as my flex but you have to admit, if he doesn't score a TD, he kidn of hurts you in PPR. If they could throw him at least 1-2 passes per game \ I'd be much more confident starting him. Last week he got me like 8.8 - if you don't get 10-15 from your flex you can really be behind the 8 ball.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Don't overlook the fact that Gruden - or any coach for that matter - probably loves that Kelley almost always generates positive yardage. Not sure that will carry for future years, but just because he's not explosive or the most athletic, doesn't mean he's going to be summarily pushed aside.

Really, how many NFL caliber backs don't almost always generate positive yardage? Next year's draft class will be very deep and there should be a decent free agent market as well. I think they can do better than Kelley pretty easily. So far all we know if that Gruden likes Kelley better than Matt Jones. It's not like he cleared some major hurdle.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Really, how many NFL caliber backs don't almost always generate positive yardage? Next year's draft class will be very deep and there should be a decent free agent market as well. I think they can do better than Kelley pretty easily. So far all we know if that Gruden likes Kelley better than Matt Jones. It's not like he cleared some major hurdle.

Yeah, +1 on all of this.  "Better than Matt Jones" isn't exactly a high bar to clear.  3% of FBG members are likely better than Matt Jones. 

 

[2ksports]

I'm not high on Kelley in dynasty, he does look pedestrian.  Just watching all his runs, he very rarely if ever gets to the second level.  He lacks power, speed, and agility, and usually you need one of those.

For RoS though, I actually like him.  He's getting 20+ touches per game, which means TD chances are pretty high.  There will probably be games where he will randomly get 20+ yards receiving on like 2 catches, so his ceiling is higher than most people think.

A line of 21 carries for 100 rush, 2 rec for 20 receiving, and a TD is entirely possible and not at all a stretch.  

 

[Boone22]

I'm not talking about speed necessarily - 40-times are pretty irrelevant for RBs IMO.  More concerned about their agility scores and their burst metrics (3-cone, short shuttle, vertical, broad).

Rawls posted a 35.5" vertical and a 116" broad with pro-day times of 7.12 in the 3-cone and 4.4 in the short shuttle -- a rather pedestrian 11.52 Agility Score.

Ware was hurt at the combine, so we only have pro-day numbers: 35.5" vertical, 119" broad, 7.07 3-cone with a 4.27 short shuttle -- good for a 11.34 Agility Score (which still isn't elite)

Kelley only has pro-day numbers as well: 29.5" vertical (-6" to both Rawls and Ware), 110" broad (6" less than Rawls and 9" less than Ware), 7.19 3-cone (slower than both again), and 4.63 short shuttle (which is really slow) -- good for a 11.82 Agility Score.  Those are Jeremy Hill type numbers, but Hill was a 2nd rounder.

I'm not saying Kelley can't be a useful RB... I have a hard time believing he's a stable dynasty asset, however (I think he's a hold if you have him -- I probably wouldn't be buying though). 

I noticed you didn't add Foster in there. Like I said, his Pro Day results are closer to Kelley.  So similar to Jeremy Hill and Foster. Again I'm not disagreeing with you. He's definitely not a stud. All I'm saying is that he's worth more than a mid 3rd round rookie pick in a 12 team league.  Below are the 3rd round rookie picks in my league from 2015 and 2016. Not many guys on that list I'd take over Kelley at this point...

Devin Smith

Sammy Coates

Matt Jones

 Tyler Lockett

Clive Walford

Jeremy Langford

Chris Conley

Alex Collins

Keith Marshall

Pharoh Cooper

Tyler Ervin

Paxton Lynch

Austin Hooper

Mike Thomas (Rams)

All I'm saying is that I think some people get a little too enamored with later draft picks. Once you hit the 3rd round it's a total crap shoot and odds are stacked against you to hit on anything. 

 

[Bfrahm3]

I got a mid second rounder in my 12 team PPR for him last week, the other owner had 2 second rd picks and his backs are older so I think he was okay with taking the risk. At TE time I figured if I could get a second I would do the deal but would rather hold him then have a third

 

[2ksports]

Here's a great video breakdown of Kelley.

http://www.fieldgulls.com/2016/11/17/13662398/robert-kelley-film-room-video-breakdown-fantasy-highlights-redskins-vikings-matt-jones

 

[ex-ghost]

What a game. 130+ and 3 td's.

Nice job, Fat Rob!

 

[MikeApf]

What a game. 130+ and 3 td's.

Nice job, Fat Rob!

He had a few breakaway runs as well, which we weren't giving him credit for previously.  Impressive game.

 

[kittenmittens]

Huge game.   He looked pretty good out there while he was putting it up too.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I ate crow already but after tonight I think I need a second helping. 

The GB "defense" helped, but Kelley ran like a man possessed tonight. Impressive performance. 

Might even keep he job next year. 

 

[zeeshan2]

R.kelley peeing all over this packers defense 

 

[zftcg]

R.kelley peeing all over this packers defense 

He doesn't usually do this, but he broke off a little piece of their defensive front. 

 

[hamsterdam]

https://streamable.com/ixaz

Gotta love it. Will likely be pickup of the year for me, and I got him at the best possible time as I was dying for a serviceable RB2. Thanks Fat Rob.

 

[georg013]

I don't know what more this kid needs to do to finally get the respect he deserves. So many reasons why he WON'T be the lead back next year when all signs are pointing to him getting better by the week. What more does he need to do? Go back to school and enter the 2017 draft? Then we would say he is a beast!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don't know what more this kid needs to do to finally get the respect he deserves. So many reasons why he WON'T be the lead back next year when all signs are pointing to him getting better by the week. What more does he need to do? Go back to school and enter the 2017 draft? Then we would say he is a beast!

Play this well against a not Swiss cheese defense? That'd be a great start. 

He looked great against 4th stringer arm tackles. I tip my cap. 

But he has plenty more to prove. 

 

[Deamon]

Play this well against a not Swiss cheese defense? That'd be a great start. 

He looked great against 4th stringer arm tackles. I tip my cap. 

But he has plenty more to prove. 

If you were purposeful with the irony here, well done.

 

[C-Bound]

It might be time for Ware to lose his strangle hold on my RB2 position.

 

[shadyridr]

It might be time for Ware to lose his strangle hold on my RB2 position.

Yep same here. Won't be benching ware for Kelley anymore

 

[zamboni]

Play this well against a not Swiss cheese defense? That'd be a great start. 

He looked great against 4th stringer arm tackles. I tip my cap. 

But he has plenty more to prove. 

Packers were the 6th ranked run defense (at least according to MFL) going into last night.

I agree that Kelley still has a lot to prove, but time to give the kid his due.

 

[Tool]

R.kelley peeing all over this packers defense 

And my fantasy team- and let me tell you: golden showers aren't all they're cracked up to be.

 

[Stealthycat]

he's going to be very good for fantasy teams and the Redskins rest of this year IMO

next year .... that's a whole different story because of so many RB's that are the heir apparent, and are not. Kelley doesn't strike me as an extraordinary RB, he's good, he runs consistent, he doesn't fumble, he doesn't catch much. He pounds, and he does it well. He's not fast. That don't mean he can't be a solid RB - he's just not a special RB IMO and a 3rd round RB in 2017 would challenge him based on talent alone. 

 

[MattFancy]

he's going to be very good for fantasy teams and the Redskins rest of this year IMO

next year .... that's a whole different story because of so many RB's that are the heir apparent, and are not. Kelley doesn't strike me as an extraordinary RB, he's good, he runs consistent, he doesn't fumble, he doesn't catch much. He pounds, and he does it well. He's not fast. That don't mean he can't be a solid RB - he's just not a special RB IMO and a 3rd round RB in 2017 would challenge him based on talent alone. 

Kelley is the Redskins' new Alfred Morris. They're both solid RBs, but they get what's there. Kelley isn't some guy that's going to break huge runs often, but if they are there, he can do it. I don't think he's irreplaceable for the Skins next year.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I don't know what more this kid needs to do to finally get the respect he deserves. So many reasons why he WON'T be the lead back next year when all signs are pointing to him getting better by the week. What more does he need to do? Go back to school and enter the 2017 draft? Then we would say he is a beast!

I'm not going to say there's no way he can't keep this up or that he cannot be the Skins lead back next season, but we have seen cases where a mediocre type talent strings together a few good games and the fantasy world goes ga ga (heck I remember seeing Zach Stacy traded for a future first that turned into the 1.01, that leaves a mark). The guys does run hard and grinds out yards - and he did have a big run (which was a poor defensive effort by GB), so it's obviously better for his future than if he wasn't productive.

I don't think it's "disrespectful" to have doubts about him going forward, I think it's prudent at this point, given his background and skill set. It could turn out to be a mistake, but I'm not running out and trying to get the guy.

 

[MikeApf]

Kelley is the Redskins' new Alfred Morris. They're both solid RBs, but they get what's there. Kelley isn't some guy that's going to break huge runs often, but if they are there, he can do it. I don't think he's irreplaceable for the Skins next year.

Well said.  I continue to think that Gruden ultimately wants another guy like Jones, with breakaway skills and ball catching skills as well (one larger than Thompson).  Right now Kelly is "the man" getting 20 carries a game because Jones is in the doghouse with fumbling problems (rightfully so, I might add). But next year, I see the Redskins keeping Kelly and giving him carries, but ALSO drafting another RB who complimentary skill set.  I don't think we're done with RBBC long term in Washington, and this isn't bad from a "real football" vs. "fantasy football" perspective...

ETA:  none of this is to imply that Kelly is getting cut or let go...he's definitely proven his worth.  Just that Gruden is under no obligation to give him 20+ carries a game vs. putting him in RBBC situation...that's all.

 

[MattFancy]

Well said.  I continue to think that Gruden ultimately wants another guy like Jones, with breakaway skills and ball catching skills as well (one larger than Thompson).  Right now Kelly is "the man" getting 20 carries a game because Jones is in the doghouse with fumbling problems (rightfully so, I might add). But next year, I see the Redskins keeping Kelly and giving him carries, but ALSO drafting another RB who complimentary skill set.  I don't think we're done with RBBC long term in Washington, and this isn't bad from a "real football" vs. "fantasy football" perspective...

Watching Kelley last night, he had at least 2 drops that I could remember and both hit him right in the hands. He's not much of a receiver out of the backfield. Which means that Thompson will still have a role on with this team, especially in games where the Skins need to throw more. I like Kelley and he's certainly solid, but I just don't see him as some unquestioned guy going into next season, regardless of what he does the rest of the season.

 

[JohnnyU]

Watching Kelley last night, he had at least 2 drops that I could remember and both hit him right in the hands. He's not much of a receiver out of the backfield. Which means that Thompson will still have a role on with this team, especially in games where the Skins need to throw more. I like Kelley and he's certainly solid, but I just don't see him as some unquestioned guy going into next season, regardless of what he does the rest of the season.

regardless?  hmm.

 

[Dismattle]

Not at all, if the Skins are half as good as people think in the passing game they will be in the redzone frequently.

Plenty of rushing touchdowns to be had, especially with defenses defending the pass.

Its like ya was spoon feedin em..  Good job Eminence!  I dont get to watch near the College ball that Id like too   So its nice when folks share the wealth!

Id love to hear your take on potential points for this next matchup..

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Love looking at his points on my bench 

 

[pyite76]

Watching Kelley last night, he had at least 2 drops that I could remember and both hit him right in the hands. He's not much of a receiver out of the backfield. Which means that Thompson will still have a role on with this team, especially in games where the Skins need to throw more. I like Kelley and he's certainly solid, but I just don't see him as some unquestioned guy going into next season, regardless of what he does the rest of the season.

Those two drops were when he was on the run, in the flats, and both throws were high and would have been great catches had he snagged them.  I think those two instances are very poor examples if we are describing his hands.  He very well might have stone hands, I'm not sure how he catches out of the backfield, but I remember both those plays and was hoping he would grab them because he had wide open grass in front of him.  Cousins air mailed them.

 

[MattFancy]

Those two drops were when he was on the run, in the flats, and both throws were high and would have been great catches had he snagged them.  I think those two instances are very poor examples if we are describing his hands.  He very well might have stone hands, I'm not sure how he catches out of the backfield, but I remember both those plays and was hoping he would grab them because he had wide open grass in front of him.  Cousins air mailed them.

I do remember one was a bit behind him and Kelley was turned around, but the ball hit him square in the hands. Wasn't a perfect pass, but you gotta catch the ball when it hits you right in the hands.

 

[pyite76]

I do remember one was a bit behind him and Kelley was turned around, but the ball hit him square in the hands. Wasn't a perfect pass, but you gotta catch the ball when it hits you right in the hands.

I agree, you are a pro, catch the ball.  The other ball was lead too far, one was too high.  The problem is when you are on the run and the ball is coming behind you it needs to be caught in stride but my point was they were "catchable" but he would have made outstanding catches to reel them in.  I think Thompson continues to have a role most definitely, even if Kelley can catch. Thompson is a nice little player with some good playmaking ability. 

 

[MattFancy]

I agree, you are a pro, catch the ball.  The other ball was lead too far, one was too high.  The problem is when you are on the run and the ball is coming behind you it needs to be caught in stride but my point was they were "catchable" but he would have made outstanding catches to reel them in.  I think Thompson continues to have a role most definitely, even if Kelley can catch. Thompson is a nice little player with some good playmaking ability. 

Exactly. Thompson is better suited as a receiver out of the backfield than Kelley.

 

[MikeApf]

Exactly. Thompson is better suited as a receiver out of the backfield than Kelley.

Right.  I mean, it's not really a matter of whether Kelly caught those 2 balls or not.  Kelly is a pro athlete, and there is zero doubt in my mind that he could drill enough to catch the ball reliably. The larger question is:  who would you rather have out in space with the ball in their hands.  I think Gruden wants a guy with speed and with sufficient moves to make guys miss.

Again:  not saying Kelly "sucks"...the dude is really solid and as a Redskins homer, I want him to run for 130+ and 3 TDs EVERY game!  It's just, if you are an FFL player and you are trying to forecast his touches next year, maybe consider the possibility that he could have 10-15 touches per game next year instead of 20.  Us Redskins homers saw this play out with Gruden, Morris,  Jones and Thompson last year so it's not just pure cynacism that's coming out here.

 

[kittenmittens]

Alfred Morris 2.0

 

[BlueDredSo]

Kelley sure didn't look "unathletic" last night. There aren't many RBs who are going to burn past defensive backs and not get caught. He very nearly scored on that long run and certainly didn't look slow. He's clearly the guy to own in this backfield and I can see him snagging more passes as he gets more comfortable with it. He's not going to take over as a 3-down back but I could see them giving him a shot here and there to see what happens and keep the defense guessing on 3rd downs. Only guy I've seen run harder this year is probably Ajayi.

 

[MattFancy]

Kelley sure didn't look "unathletic" last night. There aren't many RBs who are going to burn past defensive backs and not get caught. He very nearly scored on that long run and certainly didn't look slow. He's clearly the guy to own in this backfield and I can see him snagging more passes as he gets more comfortable with it. He's not going to take over as a 3-down back but I could see them giving him a shot here and there to see what happens and keep the defense guessing on 3rd downs. Only guy I've seen run harder this year is probably Ajayi.

Look, I'm a Skins homer and love what Kelley is doing. He's not anything special. You take out the 66yd run, and he had 23 carries for 71yds. He's going to continue to lead the backfield the rest of the way unless something happens to him, but he's probably nothing more than a RB2 going forward this season. He's caught 2 passes all season, so I guess he has nowhere to go but up there, but he's not going to be some great pass catching back.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If you were purposeful with the irony here, well done.

I was.  

 

[JohnnyU]

He could be as good as Rawls

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Packers were the 6th ranked run defense (at least according to MFL) going into last night.

I agree that Kelley still has a lot to prove, but time to give the kid his due.

Rankings on paper mean squat.

people have questioned that Packers run D ranking and rightly so. First part of the season the RBs they faced weren't exactly elite, and once their secondary became a mess team's threw against them more. 

Then last night they lost 2 LB? 3? And Matthews was barely on the field and gimpy while out there. 

I've given fat rob plenty of due, but let's keep it real here. What we saw on the field last night was not a top 6 run defense in any sport. 

 

[bb7278]

Glad I started him but he's a low-end RB2 in my opinion on T-Day in Dallas with all factors considered, he doubled his output on 2 fortuitous plays.

 

[brewer]

yah, if we could just throw out those two big plays.

What is wrong with you people?  Those plays actually happened, and he made them happen.  Is he the next Adrian Peterson, no... but right now, he is a very good running back both NFL and fantasy wise.

 

[bb7278]

yah, if we could just throw out those two big plays.

What is wrong with you people?  Those plays actually happened, and he made them happen.  Is he the next Adrian Peterson, no... but right now, he is a very good running back both NFL and fantasy wise.

The 66 yarder and ensuing TD was a clock kill bust out, it was very lucky.

The point was to say don't consider him a RB1 in DAL on Thursday, have a nice day.

 

[kittenmittens]

He's talented enough and in the right situation to produce,  but I am looking to sell in Dynasty.   My Alfred Morris comment above might be more apt in the dynasty value sense,  where he is going to have value as long as he has the current level of opportunity but his value is tied to that. 

 

[Deaddawg]

Games script favors him a ton right now. I am trying to move him but I may try and move Ware in my keeper league and ride the Kelley train this year.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

yah, if we could just throw out those two big plays.

What is wrong with you people?  Those plays actually happened, and he made them happen.  Is he the next Adrian Peterson, no... but right now, he is a very good running back both NFL and fantasy wise.

I'm not a big fan of the "take out the long run" argument but the point the two people who brought it up were making was that on his 66 yard run, it was against a team crowding the line to stop their opponent who was trying to grind the clock out and he busted through and had a wide open field. Now from a fantasy perspective that doesn't matter. You get those points as well as every other run - but if we're discussing his long term value and value going forward, it's relevant (unless you expect that to always happen).

 

[brewer]

I'm not a big fan of the "take out the long run" argument but the point the two people who brought it up were making was that on his 66 yard run, it was against a team crowding the line to stop their opponent who was trying to grind the clock out and he busted through and had a wide open field. Now from a fantasy perspective that doesn't matter. You get those points as well as every other run - but if we're discussing his long term value and value going forward, it's relevant (unless you expect that to always happen).

Of course I don't expect that to always happen.  That argument just always irritates me.  If you take out all of Barry Sanders big runs, he's not a hall of famer.

I understand the point.  But for a guy who is 4 games into his career, let's wait to see what he does before saying these are a fluke.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Of course I don't expect that to always happen.  That argument just always irritates me.  If you take out all of Barry Sanders big runs, he's not a hall of famer.

I understand the point.  But for a guy who is 4 games into his career, let's wait to see what he does before saying these are a fluke.

That run was a "fluke" though, for the most part (and that's all anyone is saying). I don't mean it to say he had nothing to do with it, but it was a lucky situation for him to exploit and makes his ypc look much better than what he really accomplished during the game. It's relevant for a discussion on what he really is right now and what his future holds - it's certainly not on the hyberbolic level of your Sanders comment.