Smoke Vs Fire (1 Viewer)

[massraider]

Will Levis NFL Draft Odds: Will Texans or Colts Draft Levis No. 2 Overall?

Kentucky QB Will Levis is now favored to be the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. We break down why and whether the Texans or Colts will draft Levis.

www.profootballnetwork.com

The odds on Levis at 2 changed because a single group of sharps was betting Levis to go 2nd.

Interesting.

 

[Jayded]

Puff, puff, pass. 66.6% smoke.

I do think people under appreciate how much smoke is testing fire though. Float crazy ideas when everyone thinks it’s crazy idea season and see the reactions.

Despite knowing we will all react to the conjecture, why not see what is said? I’m glad Houston is stoking this now. See what people say about all of your options and how teams react and then make your choice.

 

[-OZ-]

Better idea:

Name a current rumor: Smoke or Fire?


Texans might take Tyree at #2, according to Peter Schrager. Smoke or Fire?

This annoying little toolbox also said he heard Jahmyr Gibbs is going in the 1st, along with Bijan.

Smoke or Fire?

Fire. Late
Might seem crazy but I think the eagles are better off passing on Bijan at ten and take Gibbs at 30.

Better idea:

Name a current rumor: Smoke or Fire?


Texans might take Tyree at #2, according to Peter Schrager. Smoke or Fire?

Smoke.

I like the idea.

Stroud falls out of the top 7 due to some stupid video game as though his Peach Bowl performance doesn’t matter.

Smoke or fire?

Houston leaning pass rush at 2 I think is fire.
I hope Stroud falls. Atlanta, LV or Tennessee should sprint to the podium.

 

[menobrown]

I just have a hard time believing anyone close to a team's draft board is telling someone from outside the org what their plans are or who they prefer.

it's not the GM calling Adam Schefter.

It's an area scout sitting in a meeting, and going outside for a coffee, and chatting with a film intern, or a young positional assistant. That's the guy who leaks.

Speaking of leaks, read this article yesterday and thought of this thread: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/36247416/minnesota-vikings-nfl-draft-missed-pick-2003


In the article it goes over how the teams radio play by play man, Paul Allen, got the fans at the draft party worked up to draft Suggs so when he was not the pick they booed Mike Tice when he showed up at the party. So Tice decided in the future to show Paul Allen his board before the draft.

For his final two drafts during his tenure as head coach, Tice invited Allen into his office before the draft to share details of the team's draft board.

"He would say, 'So we don't have any Suggs chants, here's how our board lays out in the first 20, and don't tell anybody," Allen said


As a side note if you read the article it mentions how right before the draft the teams owner, Red McCombs, ordered them to trade back to save money. That's an important reminder for this smoke/fire discussion and that reminder is even if the GM, coach and most of the building is intending to go in one direction that can change on the whims of an owner.

 

[Amused to Death]

I just have a hard time believing anyone close to a team's draft board is telling someone from outside the org what their plans are or who they prefer.

it's not the GM calling Adam Schefter.

It's an area scout sitting in a meeting, and going outside for a coffee, and chatting with a film intern, or a young positional assistant. That's the guy who leaks.

Speaking of leaks, read this article yesterday and thought of this thread: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/36247416/minnesota-vikings-nfl-draft-missed-pick-2003


In the article it goes over how the teams radio play by play man, Paul Allen, got the fans at the draft party worked up to draft Suggs so when he was not the pick they booed Mike Tice when he showed up at the party. So Tice decided in the future to show Paul Allen his board before the draft.

For his final two drafts during his tenure as head coach, Tice invited Allen into his office before the draft to share details of the team's draft board.

"He would say, 'So we don't have any Suggs chants, here's how our board lays out in the first 20, and don't tell anybody," Allen said


As a side note if you read the article it mentions how right before the draft the teams owner, Red McCombs, ordered them to trade back to save money. That's an important reminder for this smoke/fire discussion and that reminder is even if the GM, coach and most of the building is intending to go in one direction that can change on the whims of an owner.

Mike Tice and the Vikings...they were the team that couldn't get their draft pick in on time right? So yeah, I don't doubt they were a disorganized bunch. I don't doubt some legit info gets out, but I'm not convinced that 20%, 30% or more is real.

Maybe the Eagles are just that much more secretive than other teams.
"This is a huge game of poker, and all you want to affect is the outcome of your desired results," Roseman said Thursday. "Am I going to give you guys any answers today? No, not even a little bit. But I think the reality of it is anyone who's sitting there and saying, 'Hey, I know exactly what's going to happen at pick 11 or pick 12 or pick 6 or 20, it's all a guess."

Take everything said before April 27 with a giant heaping of salt. It behooves no club to be transparent about its plans and process. Even the Carolina Panthers sitting at No. 1 overall are playing coy with their decision.
With picks 10 and 30, the Eagles could be movers and shakers come next Thursday, especially given Roseman's propensity for draft-day trades.
"Nobody has any idea what we're going to do. I know that," he said, noting that anyone claiming they know what a team might do is probably getting played.

 

[Obie Wan]

Better idea:

Name a current rumor: Smoke or Fire?


Texans might take Tyree at #2, according to Peter Schrager. Smoke or Fire?

Smoke.

I like the idea.

Stroud falls out of the top 7 due to some stupid video game as though his Peach Bowl performance doesn’t matter.

Smoke or fire?

maybe - but is the rumor true that none of his teammates came to his birthday party?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

maybe - but is the rumor true that none of his teammates came to his birthday party?

I heard he has halitosis and toe cheese, and that he's bi-curious as well.

By amazing coincidence I heard it from the scouting depts of every team after the Panthers who want to draft him.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Smoke or fire: JSN is NOT the WR1 off the board on draft day.

 

[massraider]

https://twitter.com/mrcaseb/status/1650889480448901122

Lots of line movement today. So here is what the market thinks who will be drafted at picks 1-10. Percentages are the vig removed probabilities according to
@DKSportsbook
that a player will be picked at the corresponding position. Data as of today and subject to change.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

https://twitter.com/mrcaseb/status/1650889480448901122

Lots of line movement today. So here is what the market thinks who will be drafted at picks 1-10. Percentages are the vig removed probabilities according to
@DKSportsbook
that a player will be picked at the corresponding position. Data as of today and subject to change.

I mean…

I am hearing Reddit and Twitter moved the market. What a time to be alive..

 

[massraider]

https://twitter.com/mrcaseb/status/1650889480448901122

Lots of line movement today. So here is what the market thinks who will be drafted at picks 1-10. Percentages are the vig removed probabilities according to
@DKSportsbook
that a player will be picked at the corresponding position. Data as of today and subject to change.

I mean…

I am hearing Reddit and Twitter moved the market. What a time to be alive..

I think some Reddit rando moving the line, we will see that again.

But the data in general, is a good snapshot about what players the top 10 is most likely looking at.

As a Raider fan, I am quietly intrigued. I am seeing Will Anderson, Jalen Carter, and ARich all within reach.

 

[menobrown]

Smoke or fire: JSN is NOT the WR1 off the board on draft day.

I kind of got to go with neither, that's more of a how a draft could play out kind of thing. I think he's most teams top ranked WR but not all teams top WR. Let's say a team OTC views him as purely or mainly a slot and wants more of an outside receiver?

 

[massraider]

How about this one:

This guy's theory is that the Seahawks are up against the cap, and might be looking to trade down, and a save a few mill on the cap this year. According to Over the Cap, they don't have the space to sign their rookies right now.

“Cash and cap, we’re pretty tapped out,” Schneider said at the league meetings in March.

 

[menobrown]

How about this one:

This guy's theory is that the Seahawks are up against the cap, and might be looking to trade down, and a save a few mill on the cap this year. According to Over the Cap, they don't have the space to sign their rookies right now.

“Cash and cap, we’re pretty tapped out,” Schneider said at the league meetings in March.

FYI this beat writer participated in a beat writer mock draft a few days ago which did not allow for trades and he chose Stroud at 5 and Bijan at 20 for Seattle.

Seattle has been giving me vibes of wanting someone to come up and I say that due to two things that make me suspicious they are trying to generate interest. The first one is how keen they are to put out their interest in the QB's....the selfies, that kind of thing. The second item is I don't know a story right now that seems to have so many people reporting opposing opinions then those regarding Seattle's interest in Carter.

I'm not sure on this one but I feel like if the top 4 goes Young, Tyree, Anderson and Stroud I feel like they are trying to promote the pick. But what if that's not the top 4? Which brings me to my smoke or fire question:

Paris Johnson is higher thought of then most of us think to the point that Arizona would take him over Anderson at 3, if top two go Young and Tyree, maybe even over Tyree. Smoke or fire?

If that was fire, it would mean one of it not both of Stroud or Anderson would be available for Seattle.ETA-which may impact their appetite to move back.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Paris Johnson is higher thought of then most of us think to the point that Arizona would take him over Anderson at 3, if top two go Young and Tyree, maybe even over Tyree. Smoke or fire?

A little fire, a little smoke. I still believe AZ trades down.

 

[menobrown]

Paris Johnson is higher thought of then most of us think to the point that Arizona would take him over Anderson at 3, if top two go Young and Tyree, maybe even over Tyree. Smoke or fire?

A little fire, a little smoke. I still believe AZ trades down.

They 100% want to, I struggle finding someone willing to pay to move up.

 

[menobrown]

I said this in the Stroud thread but will here as well. I got duped on him, I was wrong, I will own it.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Paris Johnson is higher thought of then most of us think to the point that Arizona would take him over Anderson at 3, if top two go Young and Tyree, maybe even over Tyree. Smoke or fire?

A little fire, a little smoke. I still believe AZ trades down.

They 100% want to, I struggle finding someone willing to pay to move up.

Got the answer!