Smoke Vs Fire (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

There’s so much breaking information, and most of it is either anonymously sourced, or phrased so vaguely as to resemble gaslighting.

Statements like, “so and so GM did not deny that there’s a chance of selecting X player”, or “sources indicate so and so team interested in adding Y player”, or like a few mins ago “Dolphins would love to have Gibbs” - yeah, no ****, who wouldn’t.

Also I love “GM wouldn’t deny interest in player” - oh, ok so we’re proving by the negative now? Cmon.

Plus we all know that teams lie. They’ve always lied, they will continue to lie. None of them will show their cards before walking up to the podium or making a trade. Every year we’re led by the nose by reporters who seldom predict anything correctly.

So what say you, FBG - How much of the late breaking rumor mill is BS, and how much is legit?

 

[Amused to Death]

This lying season, its all BS. To paraphrase Eagles' GM Roseman - anyone how who thinks they know what's going on is probably being played. Also Roseman, the only pre-draft goal is to manipulate the draft the way you want it to go.

My personal opinion is that nothing being reported about players moving up, players be taken off draft boards, or teams are obsessing over a player/position is based on facts from people in war rooms.

 

[Buckna]

Mostly smoke and clickbait, that being said seems like there are always late risers or shocking picks that someone nails. I am reminded of last year when all you heard was Thibodeaux vs Hutchinson and all of a sudden rumors of the Jags actually liking Travon Walker the best suddenly came out at the last minute.

My guess is it is a combo of teams don’t really make up their minds until very late in the process or they are good at keeping their cards close to the vest so other teams hopefully don’t snipe them or have enough time to start looking more closely at “their guy.”

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I voted 20% because I think some of the stuff ends up being true. The hard part is knowing which 80% is junk. The source is probably the key component in terms of trust.

 

[travdogg]

I'd say about 30% fire, 70% smoke. I also think the assumption is often, especially this week, that its close to 100% smoke so actual things fall thru the cracks, and we get a lot of hindsight of teams sorta hinting and telling us all along what they were doing, and it being dismissed as BS.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I voted 20% because I think some of the stuff ends up being true. The hard part is knowing which 80% is junk. The source is probably the key component in terms of trust.

That was my selection as well.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

The Ravens are the most notorious liars in the league, and they are good at it. Don't ever believe anything John Harbaugh or Eric De Costa says. Ozzie Newsome taught them well, because he was a master.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Stoked not scared

Can’t wait for Thursday

Kind of tuning out most chatter / speculation - well, actually my default is to always discount speculation, but I’m especially walled off to it at this point

I don’t like to waste calories on things I cannot change or don’t directly affect me

I’m self-aware & informed but it just slides off my back like water does for a duck

WRT the draft, I’m always looking for information. If it’s a story / clip which is speculating or someone’s guess or my sources tell me it automatically gets 86ed, I’m on to the next thing

I’m primarily interested in information which helps me form opinions

Hope that makes sense

 

[menobrown]

With the caveat of it depends who you listen to I actually believe most of what we hear late is actually true and it's due to mainly to the media catching up.

Like just beginning with the two rumors at the top of the draft which is Carolina taking Young and Houston not taking Stroud. Do I buy those? 100%.

 

[Chaka]

I voted 80% smoke.


Or did I...?

 

[massraider]

Better idea:

Name a current rumor: Smoke or Fire?


Texans might take Tyree at #2, according to Peter Schrager. Smoke or Fire?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I voted 80% smoke.


Or did I...?

Just remember, this applies to gas vs pooping, too.

 

[massraider]

Better idea:

Name a current rumor: Smoke or Fire?


Texans might take Tyree at #2, according to Peter Schrager. Smoke or Fire?

This annoying little toolbox also said he heard Jahmyr Gibbs is going in the 1st, along with Bijan.

Smoke or Fire?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Better idea:

Name a current rumor: Smoke or Fire?


Texans might take Tyree at #2, according to Peter Schrager. Smoke or Fire?

Smoke.

I like the idea.

Stroud falls out of the top 7 due to some stupid video game as though his Peach Bowl performance doesn’t matter.

Smoke or fire?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

With the caveat of it depends who you listen to I actually believe most of what we hear late is actually true and it's due to mainly to the media catching up.

Like just beginning with the two rumors at the top of the draft which is Carolina taking Young and Houston not taking Stroud. Do I buy those? 100%.

I don’t.

 

[MTskibum]

I have been watching the betting odds on sportsbooks to form my opinion this year. Although to be honest it does not matter to me if talking heads get picks right/wrong.

All that matters to me is the actual draft.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

All that matters to me is the actual draft.

Very zen.

But there are still 4 days to go, so

 

[Amused to Death]

This annoying little toolbox also said he heard Jahmyr Gibbs is going in the 1st, along with Bijan.

And to that I ask, who is telling him this? Agents? Beat writers? Anyone within a team's war room? If he's hearing it, he's being played.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I absolutely think DeMeco knows there are only a couple elite Edge prospects in this draft. I know he doesn’t have carte blanche but if I’m a defensive guy going into my first draft on a depleted roster, that first pick is foundational. It sets the tone. He wants that to be the best defensive player in his evaluation.

Edge is very deep in this class but Nolan Smith or LVN or Myles Murphy are not an equivalent pick.

Texans have 12 (?) picks, and armed with 12-33-65 they definitely have plenty of ammunition to move up from 12 for a QB if they want. They also have 10 picks with 2 1sts in 2024. They’re not in a sprint to the top of the AFC South this year so I just don’t think they should feel like we have to get a QB this year. Next years QB class looks better than the 4-5 question marks that make up this years class.

 

[menobrown]

Better idea:

Name a current rumor: Smoke or Fire?


Texans might take Tyree at #2, according to Peter Schrager. Smoke or Fire?

More fire then smoke. My guess is they are taking Tyree but could be Levis or Anderson.

ETA-I don't think Tyree will make it past pick 3 and Arizona will have a much greater chance of trading the pick, specifically to Atlanta, if Tyree is still on the board at 3.

 

[massraider]

I have been watching the betting odds on sportsbooks to form my opinion this year. Although to be honest it does not matter to me if talking heads get picks right/wrong.

All that matters to me is the actual draft.

Not about "matter". Some fans just want to know who ends up where. Like you. A reasonable, well-adjusted human from what I can tell.

Then there are others, who for some reason get a dopamine charge when some writer says Quentin Johnston is falling out of the first round. We have a sickness.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Better idea:

Name a current rumor: Smoke or Fire?


Texans might take Tyree at #2, according to Peter Schrager. Smoke or Fire?

This annoying little toolbox also said he heard Jahmyr Gibbs is going in the 1st, along with Bijan.

Smoke or Fire?

Annoying little toolbox is a good description. Makes my top 10 of most punchable faces

 

[massraider]

More fire then smoke. My guess is they are taking Tyree but could be Levis or Anderson.

There's another one:


Levis over Stroud, Smoke or ??

 

[menobrown]

More fire then smoke. My guess is they are taking Tyree but could be Levis or Anderson.

There's another one:


Levis over Stroud, Smoke or ??

Depends who is making the pick. I think Houston absolutely prefers Levis. I'm not really sure on Indy, lean Stroud. I think most teams would take Stroud, just maybe not the two in best position to do it.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Texans might take Tyree at #2, according to Peter Schrager. Smoke or Fire?

There's some fire in there.

 

[massraider]

More fire then smoke. My guess is they are taking Tyree but could be Levis or Anderson.

There's another one:


Levis over Stroud, Smoke or ??

Depends who is making the pick. I think Houston absolutely prefers Levis. I'm not really sure on Indy, lean Stroud. I think most teams would take Stroud, just maybe not the two in best position to do it.

You buy the Texans hate Stroud's agent theory?

I don't have an opinion, just wondering why you think they prefer Levis.

 

[massraider]

Annoying little toolbox is a good description. Makes my top 10 of most punchable faces

He's like Baby Huey, if Baby Huey was an annoying little toolbox.

 

[menobrown]

More fire then smoke. My guess is they are taking Tyree but could be Levis or Anderson.

There's another one:


Levis over Stroud, Smoke or ??

Depends who is making the pick. I think Houston absolutely prefers Levis. I'm not really sure on Indy, lean Stroud. I think most teams would take Stroud, just maybe not the two in best position to do it.

You buy the Texans hate Stroud's agent theory?

I don't have an opinion, just wondering why you think they prefer Levis.

The Texans absolutely hate Stroud's agent but I have no idea if that's the reason I think they want to pass on him.

Regarding Levis I got a source I trust on Texans info who was saying it before national media was saying it, before anyone else was saying it, that Houston preferred Levis.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

More fire then smoke. My guess is they are taking Tyree but could be Levis or Anderson.

There's another one:


Levis over Stroud, Smoke or ??

Smoke.

In no universe should Levis be even remotely considered better than Stroud.

The dude threw 2x the picks than TDs, thinks he can throw through coverage because he has a cannon, can’t read defenses, has shoddy footwork, and seems to be the very definition of a $10 arm and a $.10 head.

If a team drafts Levis over Stroud they’ll get exactly the bust they deserve, IMO.

 

[Amused to Death]

Regarding Levis I got a source I trust on Texans info who was saying it before national media was saying it, before anyone else was saying it, that Houston preferred Levis.

Do you think the Houston war room is leaking info? How would that benefit them?

 

[menobrown]

Regarding Levis I got a source I trust on Texans info who was saying it before national media was saying it, before anyone else was saying it, that Houston preferred Levis.

Do you think the Houston war room is leaking info? How would that benefit them?

I don't think it would benefit them so no I don't think they are leaking info.

 

[menobrown]

More fire then smoke. My guess is they are taking Tyree but could be Levis or Anderson.

There's another one:


Levis over Stroud, Smoke or ??

Smoke.

In no universe should Levis be even remotely considered better than Stroud.

The dude threw 2x the picks than TDs, thinks he can throw through coverage because he has a cannon, can’t read defenses, has shoddy footwork, and seems to be the very definition of a $10 arm and a $.10 head.

If a team drafts Levis over Stroud they’ll get exactly the bust they deserve, IMO.

I think you are mixing up what you'd do with what the Texans are going to do.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think you are mixing up what you'd do with what the Texans are going to do.

A fair point. Being logical about the Texans organization would not be historically accurate.

But I would absolutely think it would be a boneheaded move, and by a lot.

 

[massraider]

A fair point. Being logical about the Texans organization would not be historically accurate.

Bob mcNair was an awful human being, so I hope they take Levis.

 

[Amused to Death]

Regarding Levis I got a source I trust on Texans info who was saying it before national media was saying it, before anyone else was saying it, that Houston preferred Levis.

Do you think the Houston war room is leaking info? How would that benefit them?

I don't think it would benefit them so no I don't think they are leaking info.

So no one really knows which QB Houston prefers.

 

[beef]

90% smoke. The other half fire.

- Yogi

 

[Buckna]

A fair point. Being logical about the Texans organization would not be historically accurate.

Bob mcNair was an awful human being, so I hope they take Levis.

He’s been dead nearly 5 years, don’t you put that evil on Texans fans, Ricky Bobby!

 

[menobrown]

Regarding Levis I got a source I trust on Texans info who was saying it before national media was saying it, before anyone else was saying it, that Houston preferred Levis.

Do you think the Houston war room is leaking info? How would that benefit them?

I don't think it would benefit them so no I don't think they are leaking info.

So no one really knows which QB Houston prefers.

No, I think I have a pretty good idea because choosing to leak info purposely and info leaking out un-intentionaly are not the same thing.

 

[Amused to Death]

Regarding Levis I got a source I trust on Texans info who was saying it before national media was saying it, before anyone else was saying it, that Houston preferred Levis.

Do you think the Houston war room is leaking info? How would that benefit them?

I don't think it would benefit them so no I don't think they are leaking info.

So no one really knows which QB Houston prefers.

No, I think I have a pretty good idea because choosing to leak info purposely and info leaking out un-intentionaly are not the same thing.

How does a war room have leaks? I think its much more plausible that a team purposely leaks some smoke to an "unnamed reliable source" for the purpose of manipulating the draft. That happens all the time.

 

[massraider]

He’s been dead nearly 5 years, don’t you put that evil on Texans fans, Ricky Bobby!

Not long enough, and not dead enough

Trask on McNair's anti-Raiders stance: 'This isn't about Al'

SAN FRANCISCO – Several detailed accounts of the proceedings that ultimately put a team back in Los Angeles have been written since the Jan. 12 owners meetings that approved the Rams return to L.A. and build a massive stadium in Inglewood. All of them have stated, as owner Mark Davis admitted...

www.nbcsports.com

"Oakland gets nothing," Houston Texans owner Robert McNair told the author. "Al used to sue us all the time." McNair, who has a flare for colorful, sometimes racy quotes, wasn’t even an NFL owner at the time. There was some sentiment that old-school owners couldn’t remained salty toward the Raiders and their attempts to find fancier markets, though that’s hardly been proven.

 

[menobrown]

I think you are mixing up what you'd do with what the Texans are going to do.

A fair point. Being logical about the Texans organization would not be historically accurate.

But I would absolutely think it would be a boneheaded move, and by a lot.

I can't get behind taking Levis at 2 myself. I can get behind passing on Stroud however.

Regarding Levis I got a source I trust on Texans info who was saying it before national media was saying it, before anyone else was saying it, that Houston preferred Levis.

Do you think the Houston war room is leaking info? How would that benefit them?

I don't think it would benefit them so no I don't think they are leaking info.

So no one really knows which QB Houston prefers.

No, I think I have a pretty good idea because choosing to leak info purposely and info leaking out un-intentionaly are not the same thing.

How does a war room have leaks? I think its much more plausible that a team purposely leaks some smoke to an "unnamed reliable source" for the purpose of manipulating the draft. That happens all the time.

It's not war room until draft night. You are basically contending that no accurate information for any team ever gets out unless they want it. We'll agree to disagree.

 

[massraider]

It's not war room until draft night. You are basically contending that no accurate information for any team ever gets out unless they want it. We'll agree to disagree.

We had a guy that used to post in the Raider forum, who sent me some PMs with guys we were drafting.

Stuff gets out.

 

[Amused to Death]

It's not war room until draft night. You are basically contending that no accurate information for any team ever gets out unless they want it. We'll agree to disagree.

I just have a hard time believing anyone close to a team's draft board is telling someone from outside the org what their plans are or who they prefer.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I think you are mixing up what you'd do with what the Texans are going to do.

A fair point. Being logical about the Texans organization would not be historically accurate.

But I would absolutely think it would be a boneheaded move, and by a lot.

You mean the team that just last year chose another CB over a first-team All-Pro? That's the exact team I want choosing in front of me.

 

[massraider]

I just have a hard time believing anyone close to a team's draft board is telling someone from outside the org what their plans are or who they prefer.

it's not the GM calling Adam Schefter.

It's an area scout sitting in a meeting, and going outside for a coffee, and chatting with a film intern, or a young positional assistant. That's the guy who leaks.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Yes, how about a minor staffer who at least thinks he has inside info that he could profit off of? Not everyone in the NFL makes the big bucks.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Yes, how about a minor staffer who at least thinks he has inside info that he could profit off of? Not everyone in the NFL makes the big bucks.

If it were me, I would just make a bunch of stuff up, and sell the information to as many people as I could, hoping to both profit from it and stir chaos.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Yes, how about a minor staffer who at least thinks he has inside info that he could profit off of? Not everyone in the NFL makes the big bucks.

If it were me, I would just make a bunch of stuff up, and sell the information to as many people as I could, hoping to both profit from it and stir chaos.

Not too different from the old time racetrack touts giving a different horse to various players to get a tip from the winning guy.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

85% smoke per source

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

85% smoke per source

I see what you did there.