Snowmageddon 2022 (1 Viewer)

[Otis]

Accuweather is predicting 6-10 for long island.

 

[Tom Servo]

mercifully south of the snow/rain line. They're saying freezing rain, but based on the temps prior, that doesn't make sense. For it to freeze, the ground needs to be cold enough to freeze it when it lands. Doesn't look like that is going to be the case. The words don't reconcile with the numbers.

It's not the air temperature that's important; it's the ground temp. If your roads are at 25 degrees when that rain hits, it'll freeze.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

First day of a new job in Philly is Monday and I have an early flight Tuesday morning for work as well. Just in time for more of this crap.

 

[TheIronSheik]

So apparently despite all the snow weve had, the big one is still yet to come. Ugh

this looks like it will be fun.

What do you mean big one? I thought I saw something in TWC today that put long island at just 6+ inches.. it's it supposed to be much worse than that?

ive been seeing one to two feet

Wtf.

Don't listen to TWC. They are notorious of late to undersell storm totals while hyping the actual storm. Not sure their reasoning.

Models are still on course showing a significant snow event for your area. No totals released as of yet, but think more like the 1+ foot range.

 

[TheIronSheik]

mercifully south of the snow/rain line. They're saying freezing rain, but based on the temps prior, that doesn't make sense. For it to freeze, the ground needs to be cold enough to freeze it when it lands. Doesn't look like that is going to be the case. The words don't reconcile with the numbers.

It's not the air temperature that's important; it's the ground temp. If your roads are at 25 degrees when that rain hits, it'll freeze.

Exactly. The ground has been cold and takes longer to warm (longer as in days). So even if you are at 35 degrees air temperature, you can still have a major ice storm.

 

[Parrothead]

[SIZE=11pt]This is the first accumulation forecast I saw -- SE PA region..[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]15% chance of 6” - [/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]60% chance of up to 12” [/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]25% chance of 12+” [/SIZE]

 

[James Daulton]

So apparently despite all the snow weve had, the big one is still yet to come. Ugh

this looks like it will be fun.

What do you mean big one? I thought I saw something in TWC today that put long island at just 6+ inches.. it's it supposed to be much worse than that?

ive been seeing one to two feet

Wtf.

Don't listen to TWC. They are notorious of late to undersell storm totals while hyping the actual storm. Not sure their reasoning.

Models are still on course showing a significant snow event for your area. No totals released as of yet, but think more like the 1+ foot range.

I'm seeing (from Foot's forecast) that the Baltimore area is more likely to get a freezing rain/ice event. Does this jibe with your sources?

 

[The Hank]

[SIZE=11pt]This is the first accumulation forecast I saw -- SE PA region..[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]15% chance of 6” - [/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]60% chance of up to 12” [/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]25% chance of 12+” [/SIZE]

Oh come on!

This is crazy

 

[TheIronSheik]

So apparently despite all the snow weve had, the big one is still yet to come. Ugh

this looks like it will be fun.

What do you mean big one? I thought I saw something in TWC today that put long island at just 6+ inches.. it's it supposed to be much worse than that?

ive been seeing one to two feet

Wtf.

Don't listen to TWC. They are notorious of late to undersell storm totals while hyping the actual storm. Not sure their reasoning.

Models are still on course showing a significant snow event for your area. No totals released as of yet, but think more like the 1+ foot range.

I'm seeing (from Foot's forecast) that the Baltimore area is more likely to get a freezing rain/ice event. Does this jibe with your sources?

At this point, yes. But Baltimore is very close to the freezing line, as of last model runs. But that can change. Today is the first day where the models will start to be considered accurate, but tomorrow will be the true telling point of where the boundary sets up.

 

[fantasycurse42]

#### this ####ty ####### piece of #### mother####ing winter!!!!!!

With the semi-daily snow, the freezing temps, & record low wind chills... I've ####### had it!!!!

 

[Billy Bats]

The Sheik has become my go to forecaster. Appreciate the info man, keep up the good work.



eta: Philly news radio just said all snow for Philly and predicting 6-12", 12-18" for the Lehigh Valley.

 

[mquinnjr]

Can't wait for it to convert to 100+ degree daily heat indexes after our 2 weeks of spring coming up.

F this winter.

 

[stbugs]

#### this ####ty ####### piece of #### mother####ing winter!!!!!!

With the semi-daily snow, the freezing temps, & record low wind chills... I've ####### had it!!!!

Time to move. It was easy for us since we both work from home, but my wife and I grew up in upstate NY/CT, so we know snow and I am looking forward to a 69 degree sunny Sunday. 65 on Monday and rainy, but I don't think I could ever go back to the multiple feet of snow you guys have gotten this year. I'll deal with some heat in the summer, much easier to not complain about the weather when you are in shorts and a t-shirt. After that snow we got a couple weeks ago, we have had multiple days where I had to change out of jeans to shorts because it got too hot for long pants.

 

[Ned]

Can't wait for it to convert to 100+ degree daily heat indexes after our 2 weeks of spring coming up.

F this winter.

ain't that the truth.

 

[Apple Jack]

mercifully south of the snow/rain line. They're saying freezing rain, but based on the temps prior, that doesn't make sense. For it to freeze, the ground needs to be cold enough to freeze it when it lands. Doesn't look like that is going to be the case. The words don't reconcile with the numbers.

It's not the air temperature that's important; it's the ground temp. If your roads are at 25 degrees when that rain hits, it'll freeze.

Pretty sure that's what I said.

 

[TheIronSheik]

mercifully south of the snow/rain line. They're saying freezing rain, but based on the temps prior, that doesn't make sense. For it to freeze, the ground needs to be cold enough to freeze it when it lands. Doesn't look like that is going to be the case. The words don't reconcile with the numbers.

It's not the air temperature that's important; it's the ground temp. If your roads are at 25 degrees when that rain hits, it'll freeze.

Pretty sure that's what I said.

What he's saying is that even if the air temperature shows as above freezing, that doesn't mean that's what the ground temperature is. Ground temperatures can be much lower than air temperatures. So rain falling in 38 degree air temps will still freeze on contact when they hit 29 degree ground temperatures.

 

[Tom Servo]

I found a picture of Old Man Winter sitting on a cloud saying:

"Oh, you just shoveled a foot of snow off your driveway? #### you, here's some more."

My photo of the day.

 

[John Bender]

I'm OK with snow. I like it. But the weeks upon weeks of 0s, 10s and 20s is awful.

Spent the week IN Boca and flew back into Philly this morning.

 

[TheIronSheik]

I'm OK with snow. I like it. But the weeks upon weeks of 0s, 10s and 20s is awful.

Spent the week IN Boca and flew back into Philly this morning.

Long range forecasts are saying a warming trend for the latter part of March. So. There's that.

 

[Apple Jack]

mercifully south of the snow/rain line. They're saying freezing rain, but based on the temps prior, that doesn't make sense. For it to freeze, the ground needs to be cold enough to freeze it when it lands. Doesn't look like that is going to be the case. The words don't reconcile with the numbers.

It's not the air temperature that's important; it's the ground temp. If your roads are at 25 degrees when that rain hits, it'll freeze.

Pretty sure that's what I said.

What he's saying is that even if the air temperature shows as above freezing, that doesn't mean that's what the ground temperature is. Ground temperatures can be much lower than air temperatures. So rain falling in 38 degree air temps will still freeze on contact when they hit 29 degree ground temperatures.

The air temperature is what drives the ground temperature. It needs to be sub-freezing for awhile before the rain comes in order for the ground to freeze, regardless what the air temp is when the rain arrives.

 

[TheIronSheik]

mercifully south of the snow/rain line. They're saying freezing rain, but based on the temps prior, that doesn't make sense. For it to freeze, the ground needs to be cold enough to freeze it when it lands. Doesn't look like that is going to be the case. The words don't reconcile with the numbers.

It's not the air temperature that's important; it's the ground temp. If your roads are at 25 degrees when that rain hits, it'll freeze.

Pretty sure that's what I said.

What he's saying is that even if the air temperature shows as above freezing, that doesn't mean that's what the ground temperature is. Ground temperatures can be much lower than air temperatures. So rain falling in 38 degree air temps will still freeze on contact when they hit 29 degree ground temperatures.

The air temperature is what drives the ground temperature. It needs to be sub-freezing for awhile before the rain comes in order for the ground to freeze, regardless what the air temp is when the rain arrives.

They do. But they do it over a long time period. The ground temperature is cold from winter. It takes a long time for the ground to heat up. Whereas the air temperature can warm quite rapidly, as we see day to day. Air temperature can fluctuate 30 degrees or more during a 24 hour period. Ground temperatures are no where near that.

I'm not exactly sure where you are, so I can't speak to the temperatures that you've seen over the past 30 to 40 days. But as I said earlier, if the air temperature is at 35, there can still be freezing rain due to colder ground temps. A day's worth of above freezing temps will not warm the cold winter ground.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I'm OK with snow. I like it. But the weeks upon weeks of 0s, 10s and 20s is awful.

Spent the week IN Boca and flew back into Philly this morning.

I was in Puerto Rico for 5 days...Coming back to this #### has me that much angrier!

 

[TheIronSheik]

Just saw the GFS model run and there's still a possibility that a low sets up off the coast on Friday. Long ways out, but the models have been saying that there's a possibility of this happening. Could we see two major storms in the same week?

 

[fantasycurse42]

Just saw the GFS model run and there's still a possibility that a low sets up off the coast on Friday. Long ways out, but the models have been saying that there's a possibility of this happening. Could we see two major storms in the same week?

 

[Tom Servo]

Just saw the GFS model run and there's still a possibility that a low sets up off the coast on Friday. Long ways out, but the models have been saying that there's a possibility of this happening. Could we see two major storms in the same week?

With this winter, anything is possible.

 

[Apple Jack]

What I said was the forecast numbers don't support rain freezing. We'll see though. It's going to be closer than I thought. Today is colder than the forecast I saw yesterday (currently 23, went down to 15 this morning), but it's going back up and is not supposed to drop below freezing between tomorrow and Monday, with sun and highs of 47 and 57. On top of that, we had a complete thaw earlier in the week. We'll see. The temp is going to drop dramatically again with the system, so at the very least it's going to be another sleet disaster which is just as incapacitating.

 

[TheIronSheik]

What I said was the forecast numbers don't support rain freezing. We'll see though. It's going to be closer than I thought. Today is colder than the forecast I saw yesterday (currently 23, went down to 15 this morning), but it's going back up and is not supposed to drop below freezing between tomorrow and Monday, with sun and highs of 47 and 57. On top of that, we had a complete thaw earlier in the week. We'll see. The temp is going to drop dramatically again with the system, so at the very least it's going to be another sleet disaster which is just as incapacitating.

What area are you in, if you don't mind me asking? Just wondering because temps of 47 and 57 may not be enough to combat the cold winter ground. 2 days of cool to mild temps will not warm a winter ground.

 

[Parrothead]

Just saw the GFS model run and there's still a possibility that a low sets up off the coast on Friday. Long ways out, but the models have been saying that there's a possibility of this happening. Could we see two major storms in the same week?

you shut your dirty whore mouth

 

[glock]

Just saw the GFS model run and there's still a possibility that a low sets up off the coast on Friday. Long ways out, but the models have been saying that there's a possibility of this happening. Could we see two major storms in the same week?

you shut your dirty whore mouth

 

[Swing 51]

What I said was the forecast numbers don't support rain freezing. We'll see though. It's going to be closer than I thought. Today is colder than the forecast I saw yesterday (currently 23, went down to 15 this morning), but it's going back up and is not supposed to drop below freezing between tomorrow and Monday, with sun and highs of 47 and 57. On top of that, we had a complete thaw earlier in the week. We'll see. The temp is going to drop dramatically again with the system, so at the very least it's going to be another sleet disaster which is just as incapacitating.

What area are you in, if you don't mind me asking? Just wondering because temps of 47 and 57 may not be enough to combat the cold winter ground. 2 days of cool to mild temps will not warm a winter ground.

I think he's in the DC area; forecasters are having a tough time determining rain/sleet/snow for Sunday in to Monday. As always here in the DC metro.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Just saw the GFS model run and there's still a possibility that a low sets up off the coast on Friday. Long ways out, but the models have been saying that there's a possibility of this happening. Could we see two major storms in the same week?

you shut your dirty whore mouth

Take it with a grain of salt. All that the model says basically is that there is a chance that something could form. Still way too far out to know anything other than "possible" storm.

 

[TheIronSheik]

What I said was the forecast numbers don't support rain freezing. We'll see though. It's going to be closer than I thought. Today is colder than the forecast I saw yesterday (currently 23, went down to 15 this morning), but it's going back up and is not supposed to drop below freezing between tomorrow and Monday, with sun and highs of 47 and 57. On top of that, we had a complete thaw earlier in the week. We'll see. The temp is going to drop dramatically again with the system, so at the very least it's going to be another sleet disaster which is just as incapacitating.

What area are you in, if you don't mind me asking? Just wondering because temps of 47 and 57 may not be enough to combat the cold winter ground. 2 days of cool to mild temps will not warm a winter ground.

I think he's in the DC area; forecasters are having a tough time determining rain/sleet/snow for Sunday in to Monday. As always here in the DC metro.

Yeah. DC is right on the boundary of the warm air. They won't know anything for certain (or as certain as they can get) until probably tomorrow afternoon. But the latest runs show ice or rain for DC. Keep in mind that this will be a 24 to 36 hour event. So you may get rain during the day and ice at night. Or something along those lines. Of course, if that boundary moves even slightly north or south, you could be talking all rain or all snow.

 

[Otis]

Just saw the GFS model run and there's still a possibility that a low sets up off the coast on Friday. Long ways out, but the models have been saying that there's a possibility of this happening. Could we see two major storms in the same week?

you shut your dirty whore mouth

 

[Popinski]

Snowfall prediction maps:

TWC: http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnews23_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366.jpg

Accuweather: http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2014/650x366_02281633_hd25.jpg

 

[TheIronSheik]

Snowfall prediction maps:

TWC: http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnews23_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366.jpg

Accuweather: http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2014/650x366_02281633_hd25.jpg

Again, don't go by TWC. Accuweather is the better of the two, but I think they're low balling this storm currently, as well. Not sure why, but over the past 3 years, it seems that the major media outlets tend to lean towards the conservative side of snow totals.

Most of SEPA can expect to see 10 to 18 inches out of this storm. The models have been pretty much all agreeing that the potential is there for a large snow event. Remember that they low balled the last Nor'easter as well.

 

[Apple Jack]

Yeah, I'm DC.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Yeah, I'm DC.

Yeah, so for DC the main reason those temperatures and precip type might not be jiving up is because of how close you are to the boundary. Those temps you see forecasted are not set in stone. The models I've seen show the DC area starting as rain and changing over to a mix, then ending as snow. Again, the long duration of this storm will be the reason you'll most likely see a little of everything.

But we are also still outside the window of using the more reliable short range models, which will allow forecasters to get a better idea of where that boundary will set up for the storm.

 

[Parrothead]

sorry, a snowstorm this Monday won't work for me - I'm gonna need to go ahead and reschedule it for the week of the 10th.. thanks

 

[Fat Nick]

Don't listen to TWC. They are notorious of late to undersell storm totals while hyping the actual storm. Not sure their reasoning.

Models are still on course showing a significant snow event for your area. No totals released as of yet, but think more like the 1+ foot range.

This is good info. I've noticed that I'd go to twc.com, and their home page would be plastered with stories like "HUGE STORM! WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!" but when I'd look at the 5 day forecast for us it'd just say, "Snow showers possible, 2" - 4" all the time, until the day before, then it'd go up a couple inches an hour. Always such a confusing disconnect.

I'm over this #### though. My "fun car" has been sitting in the garage since mid-November. If I'd have known it was gonna snow this dang much, I would've properly winterized it. I can usually at least drive it a day or two over the winter...not this year. By the time the snow melts, the gravel gets driven off the roads, and they fix these killer pot-holes well enough that I feel comfortable driving it to work, it'll be June.

 

[Tom Servo]

Don't listen to TWC. They are notorious of late to undersell storm totals while hyping the actual storm. Not sure their reasoning.

Models are still on course showing a significant snow event for your area. No totals released as of yet, but think more like the 1+ foot range.

This is good info. I've noticed that I'd go to twc.com, and their home page would be plastered with stories like "HUGE STORM! WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!" but when I'd look at the 5 day forecast for us it'd just say, "Snow showers possible, 2" - 4" all the time, until the day before, then it'd go up a couple inches an hour. Always such a confusing disconnect.

I'm over this #### though. My "fun car" has been sitting in the garage since mid-November. If I'd have known it was gonna snow this dang much, I would've properly winterized it. I can usually at least drive it a day or two over the winter...not this year. By the time the snow melts, the gravel gets driven off the roads, and they fix these killer pot-holes well enough that I feel comfortable driving it to work, it'll be June.

 

[James Daulton]

Current forecast?

 

[Billy Bats]

Current forecast?

East Coast Armageddon.

 

[ClownCausedChaos2]

Current forecast?

East Coast Armageddon.

That explains Bruce Willis on my lawn.

 

[James Daulton]

Another one??

 

[shadyridr]

Can anyone explain why TWC is so horrible?

 

[Osaurus]

Can anyone explain why TWC is so horrible?

Al Roker?

 

[flapgreen]

Can anyone explain why TWC is so horrible?

They're awful. I don't. It's the station at all on Dtv.

 

[shadyridr]

Yes I know theyre awful. Why?

 

[jon_mx]

Yes I know theyre awful. Why?

The weathers are like women. Man will never figure them bipolar #####es out.

 

[Billy Bats]

Another one??

Latest forecast I just read has it going further south than originally expected with the heavier snow between Philly and DC, leaving NYC out if it. But that will probably change again by tonight, this one seems like no one can get a handle on.