Snowmageddon 2022 (1 Viewer)

[heckmanm]

High today here was 55. The forecast is for 5-6" of snow overnight and into the morning, and a low tomorrow night around ZERO. Then back to the 40s by Friday.

F this S

Ended up with closer to 8" of heavy wet snow, all falling between about 6AM and 11AM. Haven't seen it falling that heavily in a long time.

 

[Mr. Ected]

Up until this morning, there was one final setup for a big storm early next week. But it appears that the models have given up on that idea as of the early morning runs. With the long range models showing a temperature moderation back to normal temps, it appears that we may be done for snowfall in the Mid Atlantic for the season, barring any freak April storms.

Not so fast...

snO'Mageddon on March 17 is lurking

Not happening. That was the storm I was talking about next week. It's no longer showing up on the models as of yesterday morning.

It's back...

Although I'm pretty skeptical of mid-March storm forecasts, 5 days out

You're right. My bad. I've been sick this past week and haven't really been watching the models too much. In fact, this post was the only post I made yesterday. Luckily I made it count by being wrong.

So looking at the current model runs, of the 4 major models, 2 of them have nothing happening Monday. These 2 models have not wavered, as they have never seen anything. Then one model has been flip flopping with each run, from big storm to no storm. And finally, the Canadian model is the one that, starting yesterday, began to slowly bring back the idea of the huge storm for the Mid Atlantic. The Canadian model runs showed a large swath of 1 to 2 feet across the Mid Atlantic. Those aren't actual snowfall predictions, but rather an indication of what models could see. (Rarely do long range model runs and actual snowfall totals match up.)

As you said, 5 days out is still a long way, but going into today's runs, we should start to get a better idea. Normally, when only one model see something, the confidence in a storm aren't that high. But, things that are working in it's favor are that other models were seeing this storm a few days ago, so some wavering back and forth could be a good sign for storm development.

I believe that by tonight or tomorrow morning, we'll probably no one way or another.

There is a guy that I've been following on Facebook who does a local weather forecast for NOVA (Jay's Wintry Mix) and he is really good. He doesn't just stick to one model and repeat what that model says, he plays them all and sees what is going to work best. This has been my first winter following him and he has been spot on calling most of the storms for this area. Here was his forecast from last night for the weekend storm:

Jay's Wintry Mix

Sunday Night/Monday snowstorm chances on the increase. It looks like Cold High pressure is going to setup Sunday while a storm develops in the south on a collision course with each other. Now its wait /see how big this storm will be. The Canadian has a monster...the European has a moderate snow event and the American model is in la la land like usual. But overall, there is good model agreement on a winter event.

And once again, perfectly timed storm to miss a day or two of school. I would expect no school Monday if things pan out like i think but any Mid March Event has a high bust potential so stay tuned as we welcome winter back into our lives

The key of course is the bold line. But when you are calling a storm 5 days out, that's what you get!

 

[TheIronSheik]

There is a guy that I've been following on Facebook who does a local weather forecast for NOVA (Jay's Wintry Mix) and he is really good. He doesn't just stick to one model and repeat what that model says, he plays them all and sees what is going to work best. This has been my first winter following him and he has been spot on calling most of the storms for this area. Here was his forecast from last night for the weekend storm:

Jay's Wintry Mix

Sunday Night/Monday snowstorm chances on the increase. It looks like Cold High pressure is going to setup Sunday while a storm develops in the south on a collision course with each other. Now its wait /see how big this storm will be. The Canadian has a monster...the European has a moderate snow event and the American model is in la la land like usual. But overall, there is good model agreement on a winter event.

And once again, perfectly timed storm to miss a day or two of school. I would expect no school Monday if things pan out like i think but any Mid March Event has a high bust potential so stay tuned as we welcome winter back into our lives

The key of course is the bold line. But when you are calling a storm 5 days out, that's what you get!

Yeah. He may be right, but I'd say he's kind of jumping the gun on making a call. The American model has been fairly good this year, so I'm not sure his reasoning there.

The simplest way to say where we're at today is this:

There is a storm that is moving towards the Mid Atlantic. But there is very cold air set up to the north and warm air to the south. This is fairly common this time of year. Much like the last storm, it almost all depends on which is stronger. Canadian model shows a weaker Polar Vortex while the American shows a stronger set up. Depending on which is correct, there is a wide range of where the storm will go and how much energy it has. Most sites I've seen are hinting at it being somewhere near the middle, which falls more in line with the European model. That would bring a nuisance snow to the Mid Atlantic.

The key here is that the models really won't become more reliable for another 48 hours. By tonight or tomorrow, they should have a better understanding. There is a chance that it could be a huge storm. There is a chance it could be nothing for us. But as of now, calling it is pretty much nothing more than an educated guess.

And in other news, the warmup that the long range models are calling for into April still look on target. That's the good news. The bad news is that further models are showing a cool down for April. So...... remember those freak April storms I was alluding to? I guess we can't quite count them out just yet.

 

[TheIronSheik]

American model run came back in agreement with the Euro and Canadian. Not a major storm for the MA, but that doesn't really matter at this point. The main thing here is that the models are starting to line up that a storm will happen. We'll see how the models run over the next 24 hours.

 

[JetMaxx]

American model run came back in agreement with the Euro and Canadian. Not a major storm for the MA, but that doesn't really matter at this point. The main thing here is that the models are starting to line up that a storm will happen. We'll see how the models run over the next 24 hours.

Classic Miller A?

 

[TheIronSheik]

American model run came back in agreement with the Euro and Canadian. Not a major storm for the MA, but that doesn't really matter at this point. The main thing here is that the models are starting to line up that a storm will happen. We'll see how the models run over the next 24 hours.

Classic Miller A?

Miller B, I believe.

 

[Parrothead]

American model run came back in agreement with the Euro and Canadian. Not a major storm for the MA, but that doesn't really matter at this point. The main thing here is that the models are starting to line up that a storm will happen. We'll see how the models run over the next 24 hours.

Classic Miller A?

Miller B, I believe.

How about a Miller Lite?

 

[JetMaxx]

American model run came back in agreement with the Euro and Canadian. Not a major storm for the MA, but that doesn't really matter at this point. The main thing here is that the models are starting to line up that a storm will happen. We'll see how the models run over the next 24 hours.

Classic Miller A?

Miller B, I believe.

Well then screw the models, climo says forget it Philly south

 

[JetMaxx]

Unless there is overrunning with the primary

 

[TheIronSheik]

American model run came back in agreement with the Euro and Canadian. Not a major storm for the MA, but that doesn't really matter at this point. The main thing here is that the models are starting to line up that a storm will happen. We'll see how the models run over the next 24 hours.

While the American model amped up, the Canadian model run pulled back.

 

[Mr. Ected]

American model run came back in agreement with the Euro and Canadian. Not a major storm for the MA, but that doesn't really matter at this point. The main thing here is that the models are starting to line up that a storm will happen. We'll see how the models run over the next 24 hours.

Down here in NOVA if we get 2-4 we are out of school for at least one day. So it doesn't take much...

 

[TheIronSheik]

American model run came back in agreement with the Euro and Canadian. Not a major storm for the MA, but that doesn't really matter at this point. The main thing here is that the models are starting to line up that a storm will happen. We'll see how the models run over the next 24 hours.

Down here in NOVA if we get 2-4 we are out of school for at least one day. So it doesn't take much...

I have a feeling this storm is going to play out like the last one on March 3rd. We may not know the jackpot area until less than 12 hours prior to the storm hitting. Any shift to the warm/cold battle line could make this a miss for one area and a hit for the other.

 

[TheIronSheik]

American model run came back in agreement with the Euro and Canadian. Not a major storm for the MA, but that doesn't really matter at this point. The main thing here is that the models are starting to line up that a storm will happen. We'll see how the models run over the next 24 hours.

While the American model amped up, the Canadian model run pulled back.

Euro run agrees with the others, now. Seems as if Sunday overnight into Monday is the time. Now we just have to wait to see track and intensity.

 

[TheIronSheik]

So every model is now agreeing that there is a significant storm on deck for Monday.

Meanwhile TWC has Monday listed as Mostly Cloudy with a 10% chance of precipitation. Accuweather is slightly better with Mostly Cloudy and 20% chance of precipitation. Although Accuweather has a 58% (WTF?) chance of snow and rain on Wednesday. Not sure where that is coming from. Maybe that happens, but none of the models are saying that. Strange call.

 

[Mr. Ected]

A post from the Post. The Washington Post.

 

[Parrothead]

So every model is now agreeing that there is a significant storm on deck for Monday.

Meanwhile TWC has Monday listed as Mostly Cloudy with a 10% chance of precipitation. Accuweather is slightly better with Mostly Cloudy and 20% chance of precipitation. Although Accuweather has a 58% (WTF?) chance of snow and rain on Wednesday. Not sure where that is coming from. Maybe that happens, but none of the models are saying that. Strange call.

believe it or not- Al Roker is calling it a significant snow for St Pats day- looks like 3-6 inches from DC to Philly so far..

 

[TheIronSheik]

A post from the Post. The Washington Post.

That's one of the most detailed articles on weather I've ever seen outside of an actual weather page. Very nice.

Looks like the models are still saying storm, but the size is yet to be determined. I've seen anywhere from a coating to over a foot. And while a lot of people think that may just be some CYA work going on, those are actual model suggestions.

Even the naysayers of last night have come on board now. But there's still a chance, like I said yesterday, that this storm turns out to be just like the March 3rd storm. I wouldn't put too much trust in to any early calls.

 

[The Hank]

So every model is now agreeing that there is a significant storm on deck for Monday.

Meanwhile TWC has Monday listed as Mostly Cloudy with a 10% chance of precipitation. Accuweather is slightly better with Mostly Cloudy and 20% chance of precipitation. Although Accuweather has a 58% (WTF?) chance of snow and rain on Wednesday. Not sure where that is coming from. Maybe that happens, but none of the models are saying that. Strange call.

believe it or not- Al Roker is calling it a significant snow for St Pats day- looks like 3-6 inches from DC to Philly so far..

Good thing I'll be in PHX for the next 10 days -- hopefully this nonsense will be over when I get back

 

[Koya]

30% chance for 6 inches of snow on the Island Sunday night.

<_<

 

[TheIronSheik]

30% chance for 6 inches of snow on the Island Sunday night.

<_<

Where do you hear that? Anyone calling for actual snowfall amounts right now is simply just guessing.

 

[Koya]

30% chance for 6 inches of snow on the Island Sunday night.

<_<

Where do you hear that? Anyone calling for actual snowfall amounts right now is simply just guessing.

Front page of Newsdays website.

 

[TheIronSheik]

30% chance for 6 inches of snow on the Island Sunday night.

<_<

Where do you hear that? Anyone calling for actual snowfall amounts right now is simply just guessing.

Front page of Newsdays website.

That's pretty irresponsible. No one should be giving out totals yet.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

30% chance for 6 inches of snow on the Island Sunday night.

<_<

Where do you hear that? Anyone calling for actual snowfall amounts right now is simply just guessing.

Front page of Newsdays website.

That's pretty irresponsible. No one should be giving out totals yet.

All about the pageviews

 

[TheIronSheik]

30% chance for 6 inches of snow on the Island Sunday night.

<_<

Where do you hear that? Anyone calling for actual snowfall amounts right now is simply just guessing.

Front page of Newsdays website.

That's pretty irresponsible. No one should be giving out totals yet.

I just read the article and it's a little misleading.

He's not saying that 6 inches of snow is in the forecast. He's saying that he believes there is a 30% chance that there will be a storm that produces 6 inches of snow. That's kind of stupid. It's hypecasting. He could also say that there is a 50% chance of 4 inches. A 10% chance of 12+ inches.

All he's doing is looking at model guidance and making a guess. But then he's making up numbers to make it sound official.

ETA:

Yes, another system is heading this way, and though it's too early to say with high confidence, there is at least a 30 percent chance of 6 inches of snow for Long Island, said Jeff Tongue, National Weather Service meteorologist based in Upton.

I should say SHE, not he. The lady who wrote it is taking this guy's words and messing them up. I guarantee the NWS guy did not say "there is at least" in his statement.

 

[Koya]

30% chance for 6 inches of snow on the Island Sunday night.

<_<

Where do you hear that? Anyone calling for actual snowfall amounts right now is simply just guessing.

Front page of Newsdays website.

That's pretty irresponsible. No one should be giving out totals yet.

It's from the national weather service and it's hardly a true total. It's a 1/3 chance of significant snow.

 

[Parrothead]

30% chance for 6 inches of snow on the Island Sunday night.

<_<

Where do you hear that? Anyone calling for actual snowfall amounts right now is simply just guessing.

Front page of Newsdays website.

That's pretty irresponsible. No one should be giving out totals yet.

I blame the groundhog

 

[TheIronSheik]

GFS just ran and shows the storm further south than any of the last few have shown it. That's means it's still very much up in the air as to where this thing goes.

As far as NYC would be concerned by this model output, they may not even see precipitation. And THAT is why it's irresponsible to put on the front page of the news that the area may see 6 inches of snow for a storm that is 3 days out.

 

[JetMaxx]

Gone. long range models are a big waste of time.

 

[Mr. Ected]

Sheik, here is the update to the Post prediction...

 

[TheIronSheik]

Sheik, here is the update to the Post prediction...

Again, that is awesome. I use a couple of different sites, and I subscribe to another. Yeah, I'm a weather nerd. This guy's articles are on par with all of the sites I use in his analyses. It's pretty cool to see.

I always say that the mainstream weather forecasts are for people who just want the basics of "What's it going to do next week?" They simplify a very technical subject to make it easier on the reader. In doing so, they catch a lot of flack because when things change, they are perceived as being wrong. I've never seen anything like this on a mainstream news site. Good on him for trying to bridge the gap. I wish more sites did this.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Sheik, here is the update to the Post prediction...

Again, that is awesome. I use a couple of different sites, and I subscribe to another. Yeah, I'm a weather nerd. This guy's articles are on par with all of the sites I use in his analyses. It's pretty cool to see.

I always say that the mainstream weather forecasts are for people who just want the basics of "What's it going to do next week?" They simplify a very technical subject to make it easier on the reader. In doing so, they catch a lot of flack because when things change, they are perceived as being wrong. I've never seen anything like this on a mainstream news site. Good on him for trying to bridge the gap. I wish more sites did this.

I should say, I'm not happy the models are moving this further south. This is what happened with the March 3rd storm that left PA getting virtually nothing. Still a long way out, but that's what the models are trending towards again. :(

 

[JetMaxx]

See above.

 

[James Daulton]

What's Baltimore looking at Sheik?

 

[(HULK)]

Enough already :|

 

[avoiding injuries]

Done with this...

 

[Mr. Ected]

Loudoun County Public Schools closed for Monday @ 6:45 pm tonite. 14th day closed this year and ties the county's single-year record of closures. The build in 15 days to the year, so they are cutting it close!!

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Saying 1-4 in Philly?

 

[JetMaxx]

Saying 1-4 in Philly?

No chance. Do your homework.

 

[Mr. Ected]

Now sayin 6-10 in Leesburg.

 

[James Daulton]

Baltimore looking at 6 inches plus, areas south might see 10 inches.

 

[Otis]

NYC lucks out. He'll yeah

 

[TheIronSheik]

We got about 2 inches up my way in northwest Chester County. They said southern Jersey got hammered. Their worst storm of the season.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Saying 1-4 in Philly?

No chance. Do your homework.

Not sure why you say that. That's about exactly what they got.

I don't think there was any ever doubt that Philly would fall into that category.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Everyone ready for Spring and warm weather? <ProfessorFarnsworth>Well, good news, everyone!</ProfessorFarnsworth> Long range models that had been predicting that slight end of March warm up have backed off that idea. And that's not the only bad news for warm weather fans. It appears that a strong winter storm may be on tap for early next week. It's a long way out, but the storm signals are strong enough that meteorologists are already keeping an eye on it.

And while the models have backed off of the end of March warmup, they have not backed off of the early April cool down. Or cold down to be more precise. What's this mean? Well, short and simple, with a pattern that's favorable for east coast storms and a blast of cold weather, remember those "freak" April snow storms I had mentioned? Yeah. Those are now a possibility.

 

[ClownCausedChaos2]

Thanks Sunshine.

ETA: I'm sorry, I didn't mean that. Please don't cry. I have an idea: How about this weekend, we go somewhere nice. Just you and I.

 

[Parrothead]

Go change your manpon.. or manny pad..

 

[Koya]

#### you Sheik.

 

[Mr. Ected]

If April showers bring May flowers, what the F do you get from March snowstorms?

 

[Parrothead]

If April showers bring May flowers, what the F do you get from March snowstorms?

alcoholism

 

[Koya]

If April showers bring May flowers, what the F do you get from March snowstorms?

alcoholism

I have never drank as much as I have this past winter... not since college at least.