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Snowmageddon 2022 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter =Smackdown=
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TheIronSheik
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Don't believe those sites. They are using GFS model data and that model is pretty lousy for these types of storms. This clipper needs to move out before the models truly lock in to a solution, but right now, it's a pretty safe bet to say that we (Philly) will have a pretty big storm for Saturday. Definitely plowable snow. Don't take this as an actual forecast, but I'm thinking 6 to 12 is going to be a good guess for us. But there's plenty of room for that to either move to the higher end, or go higher all together.
Tomorrow should be the first day of locking in. I'm taking a half day tomorrow, but I'll make sure to update here in the morning.
TheIronSheik
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I should point out that there is still a very small chance that this misses us. But those chances are shrinking with each run. I'd say we are probably about at 80% for a big storm on Saturday.
Peak
Footballguy
Booo!!!These will all be northeast storms.Any outlooks for the Cincy area? It's been awhile since we've had a good snowfall.
El Floppo
Footballguy
.... 
E-Z Glider
Footballguy
PIK95
Footballguy
So rain for Rhode Island?
TheIronSheik
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NajehHejan
Footballguy
Sheik - I really need to know by noon tomorrow if I should be canceling my Philly to AC plans - will you KNOW by then?!?!?!
El Floppo
Footballguy
nobody else? this is a game-changer, IMO. burqa wearing models be damned.
Metallurgist
Footballguy
Where I live in winter park, CO - just over 14" in 2 days. Skiing has been rad
Han Solo
Footballguy
3C's
Footballguy
Time frame of your travels would probably be helpful. Travel in that area could get messy Sat afternoon on into the night.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
John Bender
Footballguy
Flying out of PHL Saturday morning at 9 AM
Not worried about the flight so much as my drive if it's icy on the roads like last weekend.
Had a 60 car fatal accident and pretty much a fatal accident on every major highway around here
Not worried about the flight so much as my drive if it's icy on the roads like last weekend.
Had a 60 car fatal accident and pretty much a fatal accident on every major highway around here
3C's
Footballguy
Really tough call. Around then it could be rain or a rain/snow mix and heading southeast I'd think it would be a little warmer. As time goes on it should be all snow.
3C's
Footballguy
Make sure you call if you need to cancel. Wouldn't want someone to send you an invoice.Central PA tv weather-folk are leaning toward a saturday miss at this point.
I don't believe them. We've got a pretty big even for my daughter in the morning, I'd like to be able to better plan for it
NajehHejan
Footballguy
I canceled my AC hotel late last night. Can't risk eating three tenths of a rack. Looks like 3 to 6 inches at minimum. In Sheik we trust, it better snow bombastically!
Last edited by a moderator:
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
Local hobbyists over here posted this last night:
Here are some thoughts on the upcoming storm. These thoughts are based on the most current model guidance, subject to change and are not a forecast.
I will try to refrain from as much geek speak as possible.....As this thing sets up, the trough in the jet stream is going to go on a negative tilt which I see as NOT pushing the storm out to sea early. It appears to become more powerful throughout the day Saturday. It's going to have plenty of moisture, so that's not an issue, but the temperatures may not be 100% favorable. Cold air is in place but if this were last year with the "polar vortex", we'd be in for it.
New England is going to get the jackpot, as it will be at max intensity as it rolls into NYC/Boston.
We'll see the best snow of the season with this one. It's looking like around 6" if it's all snow. All of this is subject to change. Once again, the ECMWF (Euro) model is the favorite.
Here are some thoughts on the upcoming storm. These thoughts are based on the most current model guidance, subject to change and are not a forecast.
I will try to refrain from as much geek speak as possible.....As this thing sets up, the trough in the jet stream is going to go on a negative tilt which I see as NOT pushing the storm out to sea early. It appears to become more powerful throughout the day Saturday. It's going to have plenty of moisture, so that's not an issue, but the temperatures may not be 100% favorable. Cold air is in place but if this were last year with the "polar vortex", we'd be in for it.
New England is going to get the jackpot, as it will be at max intensity as it rolls into NYC/Boston.
We'll see the best snow of the season with this one. It's looking like around 6" if it's all snow. All of this is subject to change. Once again, the ECMWF (Euro) model is the favorite.
3C's
Footballguy
Probably a good call. I know the drive isn't all that far/long but if you're concerned about driving on potentially slick roads then it was best to cancel when you could. Could start out as snow but then warm up to rain and then change back to snow.
TheIronSheik
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TV people are calling for a miss because the GFS model has consistently said a miss from the get go. It is the worst at calling for these storms and has been saying "out to sea" pretty much every run. As of this mornings run, it has started to move towards a hit. Keep in mind, the cutoff for this storm will be quick. So while E PA could get monster numbers, Central PA could get much less, depending on how far west.Central PA tv weather-folk are leaning toward a saturday miss at this point.
I don't believe them. We've got a pretty big even for my daughter in the morning, I'd like to be able to better plan for it
Should have a much better idea by afternoon runs.
TheIronSheik
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To answer everyone's questions, I'll put it in this post.
Overnight models kind of made this a mess. Wouldn't put much faith in them, but at this range, it's best to see what the afternoon runs do. I'm still thinking a pretty good hit for Saturday. Keep in mind, I do this as a hobby, and am no way a pro. And because of that reason, unless something was almost 100% certain, there's no way I'd say one way or the other to cancel plans or not. I'd feel horrible if things went wrong and you lost out on something because of me. I can give you advice, tell you what I know and let you guys make the decisions. I go through what I know so far, and keep in mind if I don't specify area, I'm talking about the Philly area.
Timing -
The storm should arrive near or just after midnight on Friday night/Saturday morning. It'll be a medium duration event and most likely last from sun up to sun down.
Who's in the bulls-eye?
Cities like Philly, northern NJ and NYC are there at the moment. But these are off of model solutions, and a jog to the east or west could get other places, like DC, in the mix.
Is this a guarantee?
No. There is still a chance that this misses. But that chance is small. Right now, I'd say were talking about an 80% chance of a hit.
Driving -
Driving is going to be difficult, I would assume. The good news is, that when you wake up, the snow will already have been falling for a couple of hours, so you won't have to worry about if it'll get bad as you get out there. You'll know before you leave.
Overnight models kind of made this a mess. Wouldn't put much faith in them, but at this range, it's best to see what the afternoon runs do. I'm still thinking a pretty good hit for Saturday. Keep in mind, I do this as a hobby, and am no way a pro. And because of that reason, unless something was almost 100% certain, there's no way I'd say one way or the other to cancel plans or not. I'd feel horrible if things went wrong and you lost out on something because of me. I can give you advice, tell you what I know and let you guys make the decisions. I go through what I know so far, and keep in mind if I don't specify area, I'm talking about the Philly area.
Timing -
The storm should arrive near or just after midnight on Friday night/Saturday morning. It'll be a medium duration event and most likely last from sun up to sun down.
Who's in the bulls-eye?
Cities like Philly, northern NJ and NYC are there at the moment. But these are off of model solutions, and a jog to the east or west could get other places, like DC, in the mix.
Is this a guarantee?
No. There is still a chance that this misses. But that chance is small. Right now, I'd say were talking about an 80% chance of a hit.
Driving -
Driving is going to be difficult, I would assume. The good news is, that when you wake up, the snow will already have been falling for a couple of hours, so you won't have to worry about if it'll get bad as you get out there. You'll know before you leave.
TheIronSheik
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Interesting side note:
This storm could be the perfect block for the possible storm next week. If that happens, that storm could be bigger than this one.
This storm could be the perfect block for the possible storm next week. If that happens, that storm could be bigger than this one.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
This said, best bet for all involved is to look out the window Saturday morning and make your plans accordingly
El Floppo
Footballguy
CWG forecast from WaPo:
Tomorrow (Friday): The sun should still get in some quality time through the morning but clouds are likely to increase by late afternoon as a storm begins to wind up on the Gulf Coast. Fortunately, it looks slow enough in its approach to keep the evening commute a dry one. Without winds highs in the low-to-mid 40s are tolerable. Confidence: Medium-High
Tomorrow night: Thickening clouds could begin to produce a mix of precipitation as early as after rush hour (7-10 p.m.) moving in from south to north. As the storm moves up the Carolina coast the precipitation increases later at night (70% chance). Many areas, especially from the Beltway south and east, could switch to all rain while well to the northwest snow or mixed precipitation could predominate. In any event, this is still a forecast in flux and anyone having to be out and about should take care and check out the latest weather updates. In line with the messy precipitation mix, lows range from upper 20s to lower 30s. Confidence: Low-Medium
A LOOK AHEAD
The sure thing about Saturday is it will be a raw one with increasingly strong northerly winds as the storm moves up the Mid-Atlantic coast. Rain and snow are likely (80% chance), it is the proportions of each that are hard to discern with highs ranging through the 30s. Best bet is more snow well northwest of D.C. with some accumulation possible, while mainly rain southeast of town. That leaves city dwellers with a mix. As the storm strengthens and draws colder air down, it could switch back to snow but significant accumulations are still unlikely in the immediate area. Precipitation should end by evening and the night will be windy and cloudy with lows in the 20s to near 30 downtown. Confidence: Low
Sunday is a weather day of rest with calming winds, and sun is likely to be on display. Highs may only make the upper 30s in any areas to the north that get decent snow Saturday but most areas should reach the lower 40s. Clouds should increase by midday as a clipper system like Wednesday’s speeds toward the area. Light snow could develop (50% chance) by late day and continue overnight with lows in the mid-to-upper 20s. Confidence: Low-Medium
Monday has a decent chance to start out with light snow across the region (50% chance) and it could linger through a good deal of the day. While the duration of the snow could be impressive, it should be light so accumulations could still be low. Highs hold in the 30s. Confidence: Low
Tomorrow (Friday): The sun should still get in some quality time through the morning but clouds are likely to increase by late afternoon as a storm begins to wind up on the Gulf Coast. Fortunately, it looks slow enough in its approach to keep the evening commute a dry one. Without winds highs in the low-to-mid 40s are tolerable. Confidence: Medium-High
Tomorrow night: Thickening clouds could begin to produce a mix of precipitation as early as after rush hour (7-10 p.m.) moving in from south to north. As the storm moves up the Carolina coast the precipitation increases later at night (70% chance). Many areas, especially from the Beltway south and east, could switch to all rain while well to the northwest snow or mixed precipitation could predominate. In any event, this is still a forecast in flux and anyone having to be out and about should take care and check out the latest weather updates. In line with the messy precipitation mix, lows range from upper 20s to lower 30s. Confidence: Low-Medium
A LOOK AHEAD
The sure thing about Saturday is it will be a raw one with increasingly strong northerly winds as the storm moves up the Mid-Atlantic coast. Rain and snow are likely (80% chance), it is the proportions of each that are hard to discern with highs ranging through the 30s. Best bet is more snow well northwest of D.C. with some accumulation possible, while mainly rain southeast of town. That leaves city dwellers with a mix. As the storm strengthens and draws colder air down, it could switch back to snow but significant accumulations are still unlikely in the immediate area. Precipitation should end by evening and the night will be windy and cloudy with lows in the 20s to near 30 downtown. Confidence: Low
Sunday is a weather day of rest with calming winds, and sun is likely to be on display. Highs may only make the upper 30s in any areas to the north that get decent snow Saturday but most areas should reach the lower 40s. Clouds should increase by midday as a clipper system like Wednesday’s speeds toward the area. Light snow could develop (50% chance) by late day and continue overnight with lows in the mid-to-upper 20s. Confidence: Low-Medium
Monday has a decent chance to start out with light snow across the region (50% chance) and it could linger through a good deal of the day. While the duration of the snow could be impressive, it should be light so accumulations could still be low. Highs hold in the 30s. Confidence: Low
TheIronSheik
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Looking good so far.
Mr. Ected
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
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Yeah. I'm not sure how much earlier. Looks like DCThunder posted something from the DC guys saying 7 to 10 pm. 7 seems early, but to be honest, I'm not really sure. Their viewers/readers may be far south of DC, so I don't know.
TheIronSheik
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Yeah. Again, they are just pulling straight from the GFS model. And last night, the models all went a little crazy with their predictions. This is why I always say: Who are you going to trust? The weather app or me?@ weatherunderground. This morning it had 3-5" of snow for Saturday. Now, a quarter inch of rain.
TheIronSheik
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Mets are starting to get giddy. That's always a good sign.
Ned
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
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TheIronSheik
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TheIronSheik
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TheIronSheik
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I should clarify, I think this will be another I-95 battleground storm. If you are NW of 95, I like the chances of all snow. SE, you may have more of a mixing problem. I think you and I will see snow. And I think we'll probably see about 6 to 10 inches of it. At this point, I'd think more towards the lower end.
TheIronSheik
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Not to jump ahead of this weekend, but the setup for the 26th looks very impressive. Monday could be a bigger storm than Saturday's.And to think I was completely sold on this one for the 24th. What a maroon. It's just odd that the Euro had this from the get go, and never lost it. Rarely seen in weather models. Just wanted to add that the other two time frames still look like they have good potential still. And not to go too far out, but there could be another one right after the beginning of February one. Love this weather pattern.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
Bold call in this setup. I respect your opinion so in order to compromise I'll go 1-3 with considerable mixing even for us. T-1 for I 95
TheIronSheik
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Did you see the set up for Monday? Looks nice.JetMaxx said:
TheIronSheik
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At this point, I'll take any snow. Love the pattern ahead, but now we just need some snowfall. Winters with no snowfall suck.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
Agreed. Brown and cold is the worst.
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