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Snowmageddon 2022 (3 Viewers)

Nick Vermeil said:
TheIronSheik said:
I imagine that a slew of Winter Storm Watches and Warnings will come out at 3:30.
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If you were driving from NYC to Portland Maine tonight, would you worry?
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Depends on when you leave. I'm not super familiar with how long that drive is, but I imagine that if you leave before the snow starts, you're probably going to get there without any issues. The problems start if for some reason you get stuck in traffic or something. Me personally, I don't drive in bad weather.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Nick Vermeil said:
TheIronSheik said:
I imagine that a slew of Winter Storm Watches and Warnings will come out at 3:30.
Click to expand...
If you were driving from NYC to Portland Maine tonight, would you worry?
Click to expand...
Depends on when you leave. I'm not super familiar with how long that drive is, but I imagine that if you leave before the snow starts, you're probably going to get there without any issues. The problems start if for some reason you get stuck in traffic or something. Me personally, I don't drive in bad weather.
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Leaving at 7, normally a 5 hour trip.

 
JetMaxx said:
JetMaxx said:
TheIronSheik said:
Jaysus said:
The one localish weather nerd site just posted a 3" - 7" final call - lol, way to play it safe ;)
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Normally I'd laugh, but this storm is a tough one to call.
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Not if you look at more than models ;)
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To be fair the models are still all over the place. Short range RAP and HRRR both agree on your 6-10 from Berks to Allentown to Central Jersey. Agrees with Euro so we'll see.
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I'm not just going off of the models, though. I understand what you're saying and I agree with "model readers." I still think based on the low and the front end thump we are looking at, the setup is for less wet stuff, more frozen stuff.

But, and this is a huge but, I don't know one way or another. It's really just an educated guess. That's why when I said I disagreed with you, I wanted to clarify what my thoughts were. You might be right here. This is definitely a tricky storm. :thumbup:

 
TheIronSheik said:
JetMaxx said:
JetMaxx said:
TheIronSheik said:
Jaysus said:
The one localish weather nerd site just posted a 3" - 7" final call - lol, way to play it safe ;)
Click to expand...
Normally I'd laugh, but this storm is a tough one to call.
Click to expand...
Not if you look at more than models ;)
Click to expand...
To be fair the models are still all over the place. Short range RAP and HRRR both agree on your 6-10 from Berks to Allentown to Central Jersey. Agrees with Euro so we'll see.
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I'm not just going off of the models, though. I understand what you're saying and I agree with "model readers." I still think based on the low and the front end thump we are looking at, the setup is for less wet stuff, more frozen stuff. But, and this is a huge but, I don't know one way or another. It's really just an educated guess. That's why when I said I disagreed with you, I wanted to clarify what my thoughts were. You might be right here. This is definitely a tricky storm. :thumbup:
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No doubt. I admire the NWS lowering amounts in the face of the models. They went with a pretty heavy ice accretion which is troubling if it verifies, especially on top of the snow weighing down lines, trees etc.
 
Temps in the mid 30's, dew points in the upper 20's and south winds ahead of precip doesn't paint an optimistic snow picture.

 
I live along the Ohio River, about 1 mile north of the confluence of the Little Kanawha River. Rain started about an hour ago. Half an hour ago, it was a mix of rain, sleet, and snow when I went to the store. It's now all snow and accumulating on grass and rooftops...not the road just yet.

Current temperature is 34. All local forecasts have stated less than an inch accumulation, with temps going down to 29. Earlier forecasts suggested no snow accumulations until after midnight.

Just find it strange to have all snow this early.

 
JetMaxx said:
TheIronSheik said:
TheIronSheik said:
JetMaxx said:
Instead of focusing on the modeled weather in a certain location, look at the setup and paint a forecast picture. Poor synoptic setup with low instead of high pressure in Canada. Looking like a cold rain storm for many people including Sheik and I.
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I disagree.
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I should clarify, I think this will be another I-95 battleground storm. If you are NW of 95, I like the chances of all snow. SE, you may have more of a mixing problem. I think you and I will see snow. And I think we'll probably see about 6 to 10 inches of it. At this point, I'd think more towards the lower end.
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Bold call in this setup. I respect your opinion so in order to compromise I'll go 1-3 with considerable mixing even for us. T-1 for I 95
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Just measured .9" of snow and now it's all sleet before the inevitable cold rain. Horrible synoptic setup for a Mid-Atlantic snow storm was pretty obvious ahead of time. South winds to start the storm sealed it. On to the next storm!
 
Perhaps I spoke too soon last night, I just measured 2.9" but it surely compacted some due to rain. Must have had a decent burst of snow overnight which is surprising because typically when the warm air induces a changeover to rain the snow fun is over. Heard a report of 4.5" in northern Chester Co, and 8" near Allentown.

 
Monday, Monday, can't trust that day
Monday, Monday, sometimes it just turns out that way
Oh, Monday morning, you gave me no warning of what was to be...

 
Monday storm on 2 models, including the vaunted European, depicted as HISTORIC for northeast from Philly to Boston. Yes Snowmaggedon as depicted. Measured in feet. Not saying it's correct right now but the cards previously mentioned by Sheik for Monday are back on the table!

 
JetMaxx said:
Monday storm on 2 models, including the vaunted European, depicted as HISTORIC for northeast from Philly to Boston. Yes Snowmaggedon as depicted. Measured in feet. Not saying it's correct right now but the cards previously mentioned by Sheik for Monday are back on the table!
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I don't usually come on this site on the weekends, but when those models showed up, I had to come here. This is crazy.

 
And FWIW, I got 6 inches of snow last night before the freezing rain knocked down about an inch and a half. That's not a bad snowfall.

 
TheIronSheik said:
JetMaxx said:
Monday storm on 2 models, including the vaunted European, depicted as HISTORIC for northeast from Philly to Boston. Yes Snowmaggedon as depicted. Measured in feet. Not saying it's correct right now but the cards previously mentioned by Sheik for Monday are back on the table!
Click to expand...
I don't usually come on this site on the weekends, but when those models showed up, I had to come here. This is crazy.
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Yeah, I said to my wife that Sheik said nothing was coming on Monday. Then she called me out on it a little while ago. It looks big for 02920!
 
So the different forecasts are still not agreeing on the blizzard for Monday/Tuesday. GFS and Euro calling for a foot plus in Philly, while the NAM and RPM are saying less than 6".

We really need Sheik on this one. Everything thing I've read says the NAM is garbage this far out and isnt accurate so we should believe the Euro and GFS. Who are we to believe?

Glllll east coasters. Go get your French toast ingredients today and be prepared!

 
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