Snowmageddon 2022 (2 Viewers)

[Billy Bats]

Whoa, upwards of a foot?! First time I seen that, thanks Sheik.

are you people insane .....why would you want snow....take it from us bostonians....its not pleasant

Oh no I don't want any, but if were getting something up words of a foot of snow will close me down tomorrow. Would rather be shut down completely then battling through 3 to 6 inches and the idiot drivers that come along with it

 

[sho nuff]

Total #### storm in Nashville. Freezing rain and sleet everywhere. Power lines comes down and transformers blowing up. #### this place

Yeah...at least a quarter inch of ice out there. Worse than snow.

Kids are pissed. Might have to do some ice sledding

 

[Billy Bats]

Whoa, upwards of a foot?! First time I seen that, thanks Sheik.

Keep in mind, that's the maximum amount they predict. Everything would have to work out perfect for us to see those numbers. In other words, we won't see a foot. But what it shows is that there's a lot of wiggle room from their call to the maximum amount. Any shift north will bump our totals up pretty good.

Gotcha GB, let's get that foot!

 

[3C's]

Monday night into Tuesday. We might finally get a good one, Sheik.

Someone posted his stuff at accuweather? He hates them...

Who's stuff? Did I do something illegal? Just copied and pasted from the other site.

No, wxrisk (Dave) has a disdain for TWC, Accuweather, Al Roker, most TV mets, etc. Just shocked to see his 1st call map posted on Accuweather. No idea if he did it or someone posted it there.

Oh okay, that was posted in the weather forum and I just copied the link here, I'm just a lurker over there wouldn't even know where to find these maps on the webs!

FTR, his final call map was pretty much identical but the 6" line is closer to Philly.

 

[belljr]

Whoa, upwards of a foot?! First time I seen that, thanks Sheik.

are you people insane .....why would you want snow....take it from us bostonians....its not pleasant

Oh no I don't want any, but if were getting something up words of a foot of snow will close me down tomorrow. Would rather be shut down completely then battling through 3 to 6 inches and the idiot drivers that come along with it

if I'm shutdown I have to use pto. No thanks

 

[Yankee23Fan]

Haven't been hit nearly as hard as some, but I'm still hating this entrely. I'm so over this type of weather. I want to go back in time, find my grandfather's grandfather and force him to move to the Carolina's. I have no idea what neanderthal, trbiesman, immigrant or wandering nomad thought to himself, hey, let's settle down where it gets really fricken cold for a good few months, but that guy is a punk.

 

[Apple Jack]

Haven't been hit nearly as hard as some, but I'm still hating this entrely. I'm so over this type of weather. I want to go back in time, find my grandfather's grandfather and force him to move to the Carolina's. I have no idea what neanderthal, trbiesman, immigrant or wandering nomad thought to himself, hey, let's settle down where it gets really fricken cold for a good few months, but that guy is a punk.

Move?

 

[Jayrod]

I live in Southwest Missouri and we just got our first real showfall of the entire Winter last night, which is rare. We usually have 3-4 good snows by now.

But wow did it come in hard. 6" overnight and still falling. And there was a nice layer of sleet that hit first, so roads are pretty dicey. Pretty much the whole area is shut down. Road crews don't seem to have done much. They just hit the main roads and it looks like they are waiting for it to stop before really hitting it hard.

Luckily all schools were out today anyway and a handful of businesses due to President's Day. Today was the lightest traffic I've ever seen on a Monday morning. Saw a total of like 10 cars on the way in. Usually I'll see 100's.

 

[Cyclones]

about 6 inches and counting in Lexington. Its light powdery snow but the city cant deal with it. will probably be close to a foot before it stops, and its not supposed to sniff 30 degrees until at least saturday. Will be a ####ty week here.

 

[Yankee23Fan]

Haven't been hit nearly as hard as some, but I'm still hating this entrely. I'm so over this type of weather. I want to go back in time, find my grandfather's grandfather and force him to move to the Carolina's. I have no idea what neanderthal, trbiesman, immigrant or wandering nomad thought to himself, hey, let's settle down where it gets really fricken cold for a good few months, but that guy is a punk.

Move?

Thinking about it. Would have to take another bar exam which I have 0 desire to do. On a 1-100 scale, though, if hitting about 85ish makes moving something that would happen in 6 months and 100 is I'm actually in the car and the house has been sold and packed, I'm probably right now at about a 10. If it wasn't for the bar exam I would be at 50.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Haven't been hit nearly as hard as some, but I'm still hating this entrely. I'm so over this type of weather. I want to go back in time, find my grandfather's grandfather and force him to move to the Carolina's. I have no idea what neanderthal, trbiesman, immigrant or wandering nomad thought to himself, hey, let's settle down where it gets really fricken cold for a good few months, but that guy is a punk.

Move?

Thinking about it. Would have to take another bar exam which I have 0 desire to do. On a 1-100 scale, though, if hitting about 85ish makes moving something that would happen in 6 months and 100 is I'm actually in the car and the house has been sold and packed, I'm probably right now at about a 10. If it wasn't for the bar exam I would be at 50.

Umm... I was told there wouldn't be any math in this thread.

 

[Jayrod]

Haven't been hit nearly as hard as some, but I'm still hating this entrely. I'm so over this type of weather. I want to go back in time, find my grandfather's grandfather and force him to move to the Carolina's. I have no idea what neanderthal, trbiesman, immigrant or wandering nomad thought to himself, hey, let's settle down where it gets really fricken cold for a good few months, but that guy is a punk.

Move?

Thinking about it. Would have to take another bar exam which I have 0 desire to do. On a 1-100 scale, though, if hitting about 85ish makes moving something that would happen in 6 months and 100 is I'm actually in the car and the house has been sold and packed, I'm probably right now at about a 10. If it wasn't for the bar exam I would be at 50.

If you are just using multiples of ten, why the additional factor of 10 in your scale? I so confuse.

 

[pantherclub]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYc5ksiPGZs&feature=youtu.be

this is insane

if i lived in that mess this would put me over the top and I would be looking to move south and never look back

 

[[icon]]

Spent the first 2 hours of the day taxiing "operations critical" employees in to the office here in Memphis. Couple inches of ice but nothing crazy. Obligatory groups of hillbillies in duallies driving way too fast for road conditions. Few dumbasses stuck on and off the roads.

 

[Yankee23Fan]

Haven't been hit nearly as hard as some, but I'm still hating this entrely. I'm so over this type of weather. I want to go back in time, find my grandfather's grandfather and force him to move to the Carolina's. I have no idea what neanderthal, trbiesman, immigrant or wandering nomad thought to himself, hey, let's settle down where it gets really fricken cold for a good few months, but that guy is a punk.

Move?

Thinking about it. Would have to take another bar exam which I have 0 desire to do. On a 1-100 scale, though, if hitting about 85ish makes moving something that would happen in 6 months and 100 is I'm actually in the car and the house has been sold and packed, I'm probably right now at about a 10. If it wasn't for the bar exam I would be at 50.

Umm... I was told there wouldn't be any math in this thread.

Snow sucks. Cold sucks. Still doesn't suck enough to make me do something I don't want to do but I'm getting there.

 

[TheIronSheik]

As predicted the Canadian moved north for the Saturday storm.

Regarding the cold, the models have repeatedly over done the cold in the medium range, only to have actual temps verify much milder. Since the troughs aren't as deep, and the northern stream systems ride the base of the trough, it's likely why most storms have trended north on the models in the short term. As a forecaster, once this consistent pattern revealed itself a few months back, this has become an easy season to forecast, one of the easiest I can remember if one isn't merely a model reader.

snowfall ratios could be as high as 30:1.

Oh come on now

That's not far fetched at all.

20:1 is hard to do. 30:1 is very rare.

20:1 is not that hard to do. Happens a lot. 30:1 is not very common, but the cold air supports those numbers.

Official numbers from the NWS had Philadelphia at 32.5:1 snow ratio for the Saturday storm.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Looking good as we go through the model runs. Good signs and a couple iffy signs, but overall, still on pace here. I'm guessing the NWS should lower those MAX totals next update, but they might actually bump back up their actual numbers slightly. Snow ratios are looking good (as in high), so I still think 6 inches is going to be the max for my area, barring something major occurring in the next 12 hours. 4 to 6 is still a pretty safe call. The further south you are from me, the better your chances are for higher totals.

Southern Delaware seems to be the bullseye right now. S NJ, too, but I really like the look of S DE.

 

[3C's]

Lets call it a week... https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/1654187_820684687978791_2105746129430095118_n.jpg?oh=4181253c37ef31c854d581309472c75f&oe=5552BA4D&__gda__=1431212400_31331bcff6218a7b1fd1367f754a4328

 

[TheIronSheik]

Kentucky under the gun now.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0851 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SRN IND...SRN OH...KY...WV...WRN VA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 161451Z - 162045Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY AND DEVELOP EWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS MORNING.
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE MID TO UPPER-MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL DIG SSEWD
TODAY AS A 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE OH VALLEY. IN
RESPONSE...A 50 TO 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE MCD AREA LATE THIS MORNING AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT MARKEDLY INCREASES. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR
JACKSON KY AT 18Z SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
NEAR 500 MB WITH AN ISOTHERMAL PROFILE EXTENDING THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER FROM BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO NEAR 850 MB. THIS
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOW. SFC TEMPS
RANGE FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES F AT THE OH RIVER TO THE UPPER TEENS
NEAR THE KY-TN STATE-LINE. THE PROFILE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS MAKING HEAVY SNOWFALL LIKELY WITHIN THE HEAVIER BANDS.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
2 TO 4 HOURS FROM NEAR THE OH RIVER SWD TO THE KY-TN STATE-LINE.
THIS HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD DEVELOP EWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN
MTNS BY LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

 

[James Daulton]

Looking good as we go through the model runs. Good signs and a couple iffy signs, but overall, still on pace here. I'm guessing the NWS should lower those MAX totals next update, but they might actually bump back up their actual numbers slightly. Snow ratios are looking good (as in high), so I still think 6 inches is going to be the max for my area, barring something major occurring in the next 12 hours. 4 to 6 is still a pretty safe call. The further south you are from me, the better your chances are for higher totals.

Southern Delaware seems to be the bullseye right now. S NJ, too, but I really like the look of S DE.

What's your fearless prediction for Baltimore? 8 inches or so?

 

[Mr. Ected]

Looking good as we go through the model runs. Good signs and a couple iffy signs, but overall, still on pace here. I'm guessing the NWS should lower those MAX totals next update, but they might actually bump back up their actual numbers slightly. Snow ratios are looking good (as in high), so I still think 6 inches is going to be the max for my area, barring something major occurring in the next 12 hours. 4 to 6 is still a pretty safe call. The further south you are from me, the better your chances are for higher totals.

Southern Delaware seems to be the bullseye right now. S NJ, too, but I really like the look of S DE.

We are looking at a 0.3" - 0.5" total of liquid here (NoVA), with a maybe 15:1 ratio for snow. 4"-8"ish, may go higher with cold.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Looking good as we go through the model runs. Good signs and a couple iffy signs, but overall, still on pace here. I'm guessing the NWS should lower those MAX totals next update, but they might actually bump back up their actual numbers slightly. Snow ratios are looking good (as in high), so I still think 6 inches is going to be the max for my area, barring something major occurring in the next 12 hours. 4 to 6 is still a pretty safe call. The further south you are from me, the better your chances are for higher totals.

Southern Delaware seems to be the bullseye right now. S NJ, too, but I really like the look of S DE.

What's your fearless prediction for Baltimore? 8 inches or so?

I think the safe call for south of the Mason Dixon is 6 to 12.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Looking good as we go through the model runs. Good signs and a couple iffy signs, but overall, still on pace here. I'm guessing the NWS should lower those MAX totals next update, but they might actually bump back up their actual numbers slightly. Snow ratios are looking good (as in high), so I still think 6 inches is going to be the max for my area, barring something major occurring in the next 12 hours. 4 to 6 is still a pretty safe call. The further south you are from me, the better your chances are for higher totals.

Southern Delaware seems to be the bullseye right now. S NJ, too, but I really like the look of S DE.

We are looking at a 0.3" - 0.5" total of liquid here (NoVA), with a maybe 15:1 ratio for snow. 4"-8"ish, may go higher with cold.

Yeah, I think more to the higher end is probably correct in my opinion.

 

[HellToupee]

I need a hard delete from winter

 

[James Daulton]

Looking good as we go through the model runs. Good signs and a couple iffy signs, but overall, still on pace here. I'm guessing the NWS should lower those MAX totals next update, but they might actually bump back up their actual numbers slightly. Snow ratios are looking good (as in high), so I still think 6 inches is going to be the max for my area, barring something major occurring in the next 12 hours. 4 to 6 is still a pretty safe call. The further south you are from me, the better your chances are for higher totals.

Southern Delaware seems to be the bullseye right now. S NJ, too, but I really like the look of S DE.

What's your fearless prediction for Baltimore? 8 inches or so?

I think the safe call for south of the Mason Dixon is 6 to 12.

We are the Mason Dixon line!

 

[TheIronSheik]

Looking good as we go through the model runs. Good signs and a couple iffy signs, but overall, still on pace here. I'm guessing the NWS should lower those MAX totals next update, but they might actually bump back up their actual numbers slightly. Snow ratios are looking good (as in high), so I still think 6 inches is going to be the max for my area, barring something major occurring in the next 12 hours. 4 to 6 is still a pretty safe call. The further south you are from me, the better your chances are for higher totals.

Southern Delaware seems to be the bullseye right now. S NJ, too, but I really like the look of S DE.

What's your fearless prediction for Baltimore? 8 inches or so?

I think the safe call for south of the Mason Dixon is 6 to 12.

We are the Mason Dixon line!

Baltimore is south of the MD line. The MD line is the border between PA and MD.

I think you're probably right on the money with saying 8 inches.

 

[James Daulton]

Looking good as we go through the model runs. Good signs and a couple iffy signs, but overall, still on pace here. I'm guessing the NWS should lower those MAX totals next update, but they might actually bump back up their actual numbers slightly. Snow ratios are looking good (as in high), so I still think 6 inches is going to be the max for my area, barring something major occurring in the next 12 hours. 4 to 6 is still a pretty safe call. The further south you are from me, the better your chances are for higher totals.

Southern Delaware seems to be the bullseye right now. S NJ, too, but I really like the look of S DE.

What's your fearless prediction for Baltimore? 8 inches or so?

I think the safe call for south of the Mason Dixon is 6 to 12.

We are the Mason Dixon line!

Baltimore is south of the MD line. The MD line is the border between PA and MD.

I think you're probably right on the money with saying 8 inches.

A geography buff, weatherman, and gentleman!

 

[Mr. Ected]

Pic of the Maryland/VA area. Totals are based on 10:1 ratio. Expectations are that we will be much higher. Sheik, what do you think the ratio will be?

 

[TheIronSheik]

Pic of the Maryland/VA area. Totals are based on 10:1 ratio. Expectations are that we will be much higher. Sheik, what do you think the ratio will be?

Looking at the SREF, forecast is for 15:1 north of DC, lower to the south.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Pic of the Maryland/VA area. Totals are based on 10:1 ratio. Expectations are that we will be much higher. Sheik, what do you think the ratio will be?

Looking at the SREF, forecast is for 15:1 north of DC, lower to the south.

Here's a link mid storm. The line for the DC area doesn't really move too much for the duration of the storm.

Never mind. Link isn't working. Let me see if I can figure it out.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Pic of the Maryland/VA area. Totals are based on 10:1 ratio. Expectations are that we will be much higher. Sheik, what do you think the ratio will be?

Looking at the SREF, forecast is for 15:1 north of DC, lower to the south.

Here's a link mid storm. The line for the DC area doesn't really move too much for the duration of the storm.

Never mind. Link isn't working. Let me see if I can figure it out.

Having trouble accessing the site now. Not sure if it's my computer or on their end. If I had to guess, it's on my end, but I have no idea why. Sorry I can't show an actual link right now, but the 15:1 to 20:1 area was from about DC up to just north of the M-D line.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Looks like the low may be moving more north than the models suggested. Crazy to think that the models could be wrong again. A lot of the mets had originally thought this would happen and that the models would correct to show this yesterday and overnight, but they did not. If it is true, the lines you see on the snow maps will shift north with the low.

 

[flapgreen]

Weather guys wrong again in Nashville. Calling for 6 inches less than 24 hours ago. Not even an inch. But a ton of ice. I don't know why I ever bother listening to them.

 

[Mr. Ected]

Looks like the low may be moving more north than the models suggested. Crazy to think that the models could be wrong again. A lot of the mets had originally thought this would happen and that the models would correct to show this yesterday and overnight, but they did not. If it is true, the lines you see on the snow maps will shift north with the low.

So this is a positive thing, meaning more snow?!? Meaning a higher amount of liquid, with the high ratio...Happy children?

 

[JetMaxx]

Monday night into Tuesday. We might finally get a good one, Sheik.

Looking at NOAA's site, they are forecasting some areas to possibly see 45:1 snow ratios!

Interesting. Could you link that? I'd like to bounce it off a couple Mount Holly mets to get their thoughts.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Monday night into Tuesday. We might finally get a good one, Sheik.

Looking at NOAA's site, they are forecasting some areas to possibly see 45:1 snow ratios!

Interesting. Could you link that? I'd like to bounce it off a couple Mount Holly mets to get their thoughts.

Here's a grab mid storm. Looks like the ratios may have come down slightly since the last run, but they are still quite high.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Looks like the low may be moving more north than the models suggested. Crazy to think that the models could be wrong again. A lot of the mets had originally thought this would happen and that the models would correct to show this yesterday and overnight, but they did not. If it is true, the lines you see on the snow maps will shift north with the low.

So this is a positive thing, meaning more snow?!? Meaning a higher amount of liquid, with the high ratio...Happy children?

IF, and that being the key word, IF the model ends up being correct, yes, this would be a good thing. I do not believe that places that were already in the bullseye will get more or anything like that, this just means the totals will shift. But it could mean more moisture further north.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Instead of saying "good" or "bad" can we just say "more" or "less" snow or ice? Some people don't think all the precipitation is good.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Instead of saying "good" or "bad" can we just say "more" or "less" snow or ice? Some people don't think all the precipitation is good.

Sorry. Not sure if you're referring to something that I said or not, but I'm a snow lover. So if you see me say "good", it means more snow.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Looks like the radar is showing snow just about to enter DC, although I'm assuming this will be mostly virga (precipitation that evaporates before it hits the ground). Should be interesting to see how long it takes for actual flakes to start showing up in DC.

 

[Cyclones]

Just measured 10 inches on my patio table, and its still coming down hard. I'd guess we end up at something like 14-16 inches based on the rate of snowfall and the projected stopping time. They called for 10-15 inches for here, so it looks like they were dead on.

ETA thankfully its not wet, heavy snow. Light powdery stuff and no ice, so thats a positive.

Kentucky is ill equipped for this - gonna be a long week since none of this is gonna melt for awhile.

 

[geewill]

just started here in Charlotte - snow/sleet mix.

 

[Mr. Ected]

Looks like the radar is showing snow just about to enter DC, although I'm assuming this will be mostly virga (precipitation that evaporates before it hits the ground). Should be interesting to see how long it takes for actual flakes to start showing up in DC.

Getting some flakes here in Loudoun Co. Sticking a bit because it's been so cold (-1 last nite). Super tiny flakes.ETA: awaiting the call from the county for cancelation of tomorrow! Should be minutes...

 

[TheIronSheik]

Jesus. New models are not impressed with this storm. I really hope they are wrong. I'm not sure I can handle another miss less than 24 hours out. :(

 

[Mr. Ected]

Jesus. New models are not impressed with this storm. I really hope they are wrong. I'm not sure I can handle another miss less than 24 hours out. :(

Miss you Philly-boys, and just staying south, right?

 

[JetMaxx]

Jesus. New models are not impressed with this storm. I really hope they are wrong. I'm not sure I can handle another miss less than 24 hours out. :(

We're getting missed every way possible.

 

[3C's]

Snow forecast has not dropped for us down here. Still forecast to get nearly a foot. Latest nerd post:

****ALERT: NWS SPC ISSUES A MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR *HEAVY SNOW* ACROSS ALL OF VA EXCEPT NOVA****

HEAVIER BANDS WILL TRACK THROUGH OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. RATES WILL BE 1-2/HR. THIS FITS THE BILL OF RATIOS BEING 15 OR 20:1

 

[Binky The Doormat]

iced in here in Little Rock, Arkansas. Kids already had today off for Presidents Day but they called off school for tomorrow as well. No more freezing rain/snow expected but temps won't rise enough to melt anything much.

Just glad we kept power, freezing rain takes down a lot of power lines.

 

[Mr. Ected]

School canceled here about an hour ago for tomorrow, with an inch on the ground, and 4+ on the way.

 

[belljr]

Looks like I'm right on the line of 6 to 9 or 3 to 6.

come on 3