Snowmageddon 2022 (9 Viewers)

[James Daulton]

Also thank you to Sheik and Mr. Etced for their forecasts, I do enjoy this tread and I like knowing a few days in advance what I can expect.

So you've been expecting and planned for the exact opposite of what's been predicted ITT?

 

[Rohn Jambo]

I hope you guys aren't using new types of snow shovels. You ancestors would be angry

Son works at Walmart. They sold out of snow shovels. People didn't already have them?

I don't get this neither. I have a cheapo shovel but I think it will last until I croak.

 

[Rohn Jambo]

We are looking at rain this Sunday. It's going to warm up in time for 'storm' and then drop significantly after. YAY!!! :(

Yup. Even places like Boston will see a changeover to rain at some point. It's crazy. Historic cold temps every day except the day it storms. That day, it'll be warm enough for rain. Then, back to freezing temps.

Rain in the Boston Area = Huge Flood Potential!!

Yeah. They had to know it was eventually coming, though. I posted a couple weeks ago that if you lived in Boston and didn't have flood insurance, that was the time to get it. I think it takes 30 days to kick in and it was like Mother Nature was giving you enough time to get it before all of this melted in the Spring.

I live on the top of a hill so no flooding worries. Just not liking the water freezing up again when the temperature drops again.

 

[Rohn Jambo]

This rooting for snow thing makes me angrier than it should

I have to agree, I like coming to this post and seeing what the future forecast looks like. It does make me a little angry reading people wanting snow when I have no place left to throw it. My snow blower is on the highest pitch and it is no longer clearing the end of my driveway.I know that there are some that do look forward to it falling and I try to understand but with what we have received just outside of Boston for me it is enough already!!!!

Yeah, but not everyone has seen snow like Boston. It's like being at a buffet, and being stuffed with food. Then looking outside at the homeless people and getting mad because they are praying for food. I get that Boston doesn't need anymore snow. But just because Boston has a ton of snow doesn't mean that other people in cities that have been deprived of snow shouldn't want it.

I completely understand people wanting it and I do not mind the occasional storm, but I have had enough. I do not blame people for wanting it and I said I completely understand but I am over winter and need something higher than 25 degrees.It would not have been bad if after the storm there was a small warm up period to melt some of it down but whatever has been falling has been staying. I literally have 5 feet of snow in my backyard.

I hope that people outside of Boston get their wish and for once it misses us completely LOL!!!!

Yeah, it sucks that dumping snow in the street will get you a $200 fine.The good old days: http://p.o0bc.com/rf/image_700w/Boston/2011-2020/2014/12/31/Boston.com/BCOM/Images/beaconstreetaftersnowstorm1901%20(1)-2385.jpg

 

[squidrope]

We are looking at rain this Sunday. It's going to warm up in time for 'storm' and then drop significantly after. YAY!!! :(

Yup. Even places like Boston will see a changeover to rain at some point. It's crazy. Historic cold temps every day except the day it storms. That day, it'll be warm enough for rain. Then, back to freezing temps.

Rain in the Boston Area = Huge Flood Potential!!

The snow on roofs will act like a giant sponge with the rain. Over stressed roofs will collapse with the additional weight. Then there's the Ice dams that will back the rain water up, causing severe damage inside of homes.

ETA- A neighbors smoke detector went off for no apparent reason. They investigated and found that it was full of water from the ice dams.

 

[BustedKnuckles]

its going to snow again in Boston....how magical

 

[TheIronSheik]

I hope you guys aren't using new types of snow shovels. You ancestors would be angry

Son works at Walmart. They sold out of snow shovels. People didn't already have them?

I don't get this neither. I have a cheapo shovel but I think it will last until I croak.

Had to buy a new shovel this year. After all of that snow last year, during the last storm, went to shovel a large amount of snow and the thing bent in half.

 

[BustedKnuckles]

So this sunday in Boston its going to snow ...then rain...then change back to snow followed by freezing temps.......how magical

 

[TheIronSheik]

So this sunday in Boston its going to snow ...then rain...then change back to snow followed by freezing temps.......how magical

Not locked in yet. The newest models are backing off the huge changeover. Have to see a couple more model runs before we know for sure.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Mt. Holly Long Range Disco already talking about Tues/Wed:

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER DIVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE 00Z UKMET/CMC AND
ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER LOW TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE CLOSE TO THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND REFLECT SNOW AS THE P-TYPE. REALLY WANT TO SEE
SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THIS PERIOD BEFORE GOING ANY HIGHER THAN
LOW CHANCE POPS.

 

[JaxBill]

The cold is even affecting people down here.

It's SOOOOOOOOOO cold....

(How cold is it?)

It's so cold they even have (Vanilla) Ice in a Florida jail cell.

Don't forget to tip your waitress. And try the veal.

 

[JetMaxx]

Colder than a mother in law's kiss

 

[TheIronSheik]

So this sunday in Boston its going to snow ...then rain...then change back to snow followed by freezing temps.......how magical

Not locked in yet. The newest models are backing off the huge changeover. Have to see a couple more model runs before we know for sure.

Looks like the colder solution is winning out here.

SE PA is now looking like a nice 3 to 5 event with maybe a little drizzle towards the end. The trend is definitely colder.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

You know what really sucks? The first day of pitcher/catcher reporting was yesterday....thoughts of Spring Training were dancing in my head...I wake up at 5 am to take my son up to the high school for practice. Step outside into negative temps. Illusion of spring smashed. Yes I know it is February in Nebraska and it will stay cold until late March - but why do they tease me with Spring Training reports?

 

[TheIronSheik]

You know what really sucks? The first day of pitcher/catcher reporting was yesterday....thoughts of Spring Training were dancing in my head...I wake up at 5 am to take my son up to the high school for practice. Step outside into negative temps. Illusion of spring smashed. Yes I know it is February in Nebraska and it will stay cold until late March - but why do they tease me with Spring Training reports?

Think of it this way: Just think how long it is until the start of winter.

 

[Koya]

Coldageddon is more like it. Yeesh.

Sheik, any expected accumulation for San Juan, PR? On the plane at JFK aa we speak.

Let's hope my body holds up, feeling pretty good considering 5 hours ago I was sweating through my clothes with a 102 fever. GB loading up on emergency immune, zicam and airborne when I first felt #### hit early yesterday.

 

[James Daulton]

The heating bill for my little 1950 brick rancher are going to be the suck.

 

[3C's]

The heating bill for my little 1950 brick rancher are going to be the suck.

Almost impossible for my heat pumps to keep up in 0 degree weather.

 

[Ned]

Weather underground suddenly saying 5-8" tomorrow (Delaware).

 

[James Daulton]

The heating bill for my little 1950 brick rancher are going to be the suck.

Almost impossible for my heat pumps to keep up in 0 degree weather.

I've got gas baseboard heat. There was virtually no insulation in the ceiling and none in the walls when we moved in. We insulated the attic and had foam blown into the walls so it's pretty comfortable inside, but our little house just doesn't retain heat like new construction would. If my bill for this month is under $500 I'll be happy. For reference, a typical winter with a low high in the 25 - 40 range and my bills are like $350. The first bill when I moved in 12 years ago was $550! And it wasn't even that cold.

 

[JetMaxx]

Burning free wood I've only used 75 gallons of propane since Oct 27. Bring on the cold. I love it, it's invigorating.

 

[Fat Nick]

The heating bill for my little 1950 brick rancher are going to be the suck.

Almost impossible for my heat pumps to keep up in 0 degree weather.

I don't think heat pumps are designed to be efficient under freezing. Is that your only method of heating? Ours switches over to the oil furnace if it's under like 36 degrees.

 

[Peak]

Local weather "gurus" are saying Cinci area getting another 3-5" between tonight and tomorrow. Kids have been out of school since last Thursday (Thurs/Mon were "holidays" - snow days Tue-Fri this week).

 

[3C's]

The heating bill for my little 1950 brick rancher are going to be the suck.

Almost impossible for my heat pumps to keep up in 0 degree weather.

I don't think heat pumps are designed to be efficient under freezing. Is that your only method of heating? Ours switches over to the oil furnace if it's under like 36 degrees.

Correct. And yes. It does have electric strip heating (aux heat) that kicks in when it's this cold but it still has a hard time keeping up.At 3am even though it was set to 67 the temp had dropped to 65. Bumped it up to 69 to make sure the aux heat stayed on. At the scheduled time it bumped up to 71 and has caught up. Aux heat just turned off.

Do have a fireplace but 1) probably wouldn't be much help (heat loss up the chimney 2) never used it since we've been here 3) in the attic it was vented out the back of the house into what used to be a screened in porch (of sorts). No idea why they did that. I turned that "porch" into living space (sun room) and walled off where that vent exhausted. If I light a fire I'm guessing the attic will get a little smoky. One of these days I plan on getting a wood stove insert and fixing that. One of these days. I have plenty of wood/trees, might as well use it. Only problem there is the stove would be about 10 feet from the thermostat on that end of the house. Seems like it would keep that area warm and the heat wouldn't run but the bedrooms wouldn't get heat from the stove.

 

[General Tso]

The streak continues... My son hasn't had a full week of school since December 15th.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Coldageddon is more like it. Yeesh.

Sheik, any expected accumulation for San Juan, PR? On the plane at JFK aa we speak.

Let's hope my body holds up, feeling pretty good considering 5 hours ago I was sweating through my clothes with a 102 fever. GB loading up on emergency immune, zicam and airborne when I first felt #### hit early yesterday.

I haven't seen the latest models, but I believe Puerto Rico misses the brunt of the snow.

 

[Parrothead]

Coldageddon is more like it. Yeesh.

Sheik, any expected accumulation for San Juan, PR? On the plane at JFK aa we speak.

Let's hope my body holds up, feeling pretty good considering 5 hours ago I was sweating through my clothes with a 102 fever. GB loading up on emergency immune, zicam and airborne when I first felt #### hit early yesterday.

I haven't seen the latest models, but I believe Puerto Rico misses the brunt of the snow.

PR forecast: chilled with a slice of lime

 

[TheIronSheik]

Weather underground suddenly saying 5-8" tomorrow (Delaware).

The models came back last night with over inflated snow totals, most likely due to them not taking into consideration sleet and freezing rain. Only the Euro didn't pump up the snow totals. We'll see what happens with this afternoon runs, but I don't know if we'll see the 8 to 12 inches the models are showing. We could, but I wouldn't count on it. Just yet, anyway. NWS bumped their totals, but still went conservative, which is probably the correct call.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Canadian just came back pretty solid. It's amazing that almost every storm this season, under 24 hours out, has not had a solid solution. That's ridiculous! Less than 24 hours out, and models are still trying to figure this thing out. Laughable.

FWIW, CMC came back with a wide range of 6 to 12 inches for most. Not buying it.

 

[Fat Nick]

Only problem there is the stove would be about 10 feet from the thermostat on that end of the house. Seems like it would keep that area warm and the heat wouldn't run but the bedrooms wouldn't get heat from the stove.

This...we have a fireplace too. We like to use it, but the side-effect is that it keeps the thermostat in the neighboring front room warmer than the rest of the house actually is. Nice for the room you're in, horrible everywhere else.

 

[TheIronSheik]

I hate that I had a fireplace at my place in Houston, but I don't have one up here. :(

 

[TheIronSheik]

While total snowfall accumulations are still being worked out, one thing is definite for this storm: It will be a wet, heavy snowfall. Not a fun one to shovel, that's for sure.

Mt. Holly should update their watches/warnings/advisories around 3:30-4 pm tonight. I would expect them to go conservative and probably just issue WWA for my area.

Interesting fun fact: Ever wonder why the county next to yours gets a Winter Storm Warning while your county gets a Winter Weather Advisory? Each county has a different threshold criteria. And some counties are even split, like mine. Places like Philly require 7 inches of snow for a WS Warning. But Western Chester County requires 8 inches of snow for a Warning.

 

[MattFancy]

Sheik, does it look like Southern MD will see much snow or will it be mainly freezing rain/rain?

 

[Fat Nick]

While total snowfall accumulations are still being worked out, one thing is definite for this storm: It will be a wet, heavy snowfall. Not a fun one to shovel, that's for sure.

Mt. Holly should update their watches/warnings/advisories around 3:30-4 pm tonight. I would expect them to go conservative and probably just issue WWA for my area.

Interesting fun fact: Ever wonder why the county next to yours gets a Winter Storm Warning while your county gets a Winter Weather Advisory? Each county has a different threshold criteria. And some counties are even split, like mine. Places like Philly require 7 inches of snow for a WS Warning. But Western Chester County requires 8 inches of snow for a Warning.

Where do you find these thresholds? Interesting fact. I'd be curious what Hunterdon Co. NJ is...

 

[TheIronSheik]

While total snowfall accumulations are still being worked out, one thing is definite for this storm: It will be a wet, heavy snowfall. Not a fun one to shovel, that's for sure.

Mt. Holly should update their watches/warnings/advisories around 3:30-4 pm tonight. I would expect them to go conservative and probably just issue WWA for my area.

Interesting fun fact: Ever wonder why the county next to yours gets a Winter Storm Warning while your county gets a Winter Weather Advisory? Each county has a different threshold criteria. And some counties are even split, like mine. Places like Philly require 7 inches of snow for a WS Warning. But Western Chester County requires 8 inches of snow for a Warning.

Where do you find these thresholds? Interesting fact. I'd be curious what Hunterdon Co. NJ is...

24 hour criteria

12 hour criteria

 

[Mr. Ected]

Only problem there is the stove would be about 10 feet from the thermostat on that end of the house. Seems like it would keep that area warm and the heat wouldn't run but the bedrooms wouldn't get heat from the stove.

This...we have a fireplace too. We like to use it, but the side-effect is that it keeps the thermostat in the neighboring front room warmer than the rest of the house actually is. Nice for the room you're in, horrible everywhere else.

Have this problem too, further frustrated by the fact that our only thermostat for the entire house's heat/air is in the same room, ten feet from the fireplace. I am trying to find a 'remote' thermostat that talks to and helps control the main thermostat. I don't need two zones, I just need a second location to control the furnace.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Sheik, does it look like Southern MD will see much snow or will it be mainly freezing rain/rain?

Maryland's a weird shape, but it looks like 1 to 3 inches down that way. Probably see a changeover to rain at some point, but models are still trying to figure it out.

 

[fred_1_15301]

What is northern VA looking like tomorrow morning into afternoon?

 

[TheIronSheik]

What is northern VA looking like tomorrow morning into afternoon?

NWS link

 

[Swing 51]

What is northern VA looking like tomorrow morning into afternoon?

Timing: Precipitation will start as snow, beginning mid-morning in the far northwest suburbs and working its way southeast across the area. The Beltway should expect precipitation to begin somewhere between the late morning and the early afternoon. While snow is expected through at least the mid-afternoon, sleet – and even brief periods of freezing rain – could begin to mix in somewhere between the mid- to late afternoon hours in the southeast, working its way to the northwest. Precipitation eventually turns to all rain overnight for the entire area and will last into Sunday morning.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/20/winter-storm-to-bring-hazardous-mix-of-snow-and-sleet-to-d-c-area-on-saturday/

 

[James Daulton]

Sheik, does it look like Southern MD will see much snow or will it be mainly freezing rain/rain?

Maryland's a weird shape, but it looks like 1 to 3 inches down that way. Probably see a changeover to rain at some point, but models are still trying to figure it out.

You're a weird shape!

 

[Angry Beavers]

I see a storm moving in for the weekend.. anyone want to hazard a guess on travel conditions Cleveland, OH to Pittsburgh, PA on Sat am and back on Saturday night?

A good chance at a very sizable snow event. That is, based off of what the models would eventually be trending to. And since models have been so amazing this year so far, why not believe it?

Seriously, though, a couple of mets I know seem to really like the potential set up for this weekend. That doesn't mean it is definite by any means, but some of them are really starting to salivate over it. The smart part of my brain says I'll believe it when I see it. Sadly, that part of my brain is a small majority when it comes to rationale thinking. So I'm already giddy with excitement.

Looks like most of the snow stays south of Pittsburgh, but Cleveland could be not fun for driving later Saturday evening.. thoughts?

 

[TheIronSheik]

I see a storm moving in for the weekend.. anyone want to hazard a guess on travel conditions Cleveland, OH to Pittsburgh, PA on Sat am and back on Saturday night?

A good chance at a very sizable snow event. That is, based off of what the models would eventually be trending to. And since models have been so amazing this year so far, why not believe it?

Seriously, though, a couple of mets I know seem to really like the potential set up for this weekend. That doesn't mean it is definite by any means, but some of them are really starting to salivate over it. The smart part of my brain says I'll believe it when I see it. Sadly, that part of my brain is a small majority when it comes to rationale thinking. So I'm already giddy with excitement.

Looks like most of the snow stays south of Pittsburgh, but Cleveland could be not fun for driving later Saturday evening.. thoughts?

Looks like a good size snow for those areas, still.

 

[JetMaxx]

While total snowfall accumulations are still being worked out, one thing is definite for this storm: It will be a wet, heavy snowfall. Not a fun one to shovel, that's for sure.

Mt. Holly should update their watches/warnings/advisories around 3:30-4 pm tonight. I would expect them to go conservative and probably just issue WWA for my area.

Interesting fun fact: Ever wonder why the county next to yours gets a Winter Storm Warning while your county gets a Winter Weather Advisory? Each county has a different threshold criteria. And some counties are even split, like mine. Places like Philly require 7 inches of snow for a WS Warning. But Western Chester County requires 8 inches of snow for a Warning.

That's because Western Chester County is Boss.

 

[TheIronSheik]

While total snowfall accumulations are still being worked out, one thing is definite for this storm: It will be a wet, heavy snowfall. Not a fun one to shovel, that's for sure.

Mt. Holly should update their watches/warnings/advisories around 3:30-4 pm tonight. I would expect them to go conservative and probably just issue WWA for my area.

Interesting fun fact: Ever wonder why the county next to yours gets a Winter Storm Warning while your county gets a Winter Weather Advisory? Each county has a different threshold criteria. And some counties are even split, like mine. Places like Philly require 7 inches of snow for a WS Warning. But Western Chester County requires 8 inches of snow for a Warning.

That's because Western Chester County is Boss.

 

[Courtjester]

We are gearing up to get hit here in Colorado. Clouds are already building. Colorado is just crazy because it is high 50s--low 60s out there now and in less than 12 hours, the snow will be coming down with them talking 12-24 inches--tonight into tomorrow.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Winter Storm Watches up across SE PA.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Winter Storm Watches up across SE PA.

NWS snowfall map.

Looks like 6 to 8 out my way. Funny how 5 days ago they thought an inch or two changing to rain. These models 5 days out are crap this winter.

 

[JetMaxx]

I'm thinking that's a bit high. With the southerly flow aloft, I think the cold gets scoured out too fast to allow for the bigger amount. You're thoughts?

 

[TheIronSheik]

I'm thinking that's a bit high. With the southerly flow aloft, I think the cold gets scoured out too fast to allow for the bigger amount. You're thoughts?

I thought they went high, but I could see it happening. I believe that my area (and probably yours) is more in line for 4 to 6. I do know that a lot of the mets I talk with have been talking about a pretty good front end thumping, so maybe that's why the totals are higher?

I'm going to jinx this bad boy by saying I think there is very little chance for a shift either way. 4 to 6 is going to be the amount no matter what, in my opinion.