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Snowmageddon 2022 (2 Viewers)
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TheIronSheik
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Off again today.
It looks like I could be wrong about the long range forecast. I had said earlier that while I thought the temps through March and the beginning of April will be below average, I didn't think we'd see many more chances for snow. Looks like winter isn't ready just yet to give up its stronghold. Not saying we'll get anymore snow, but long range models definitely show a couple of possibilities.
It looks like I could be wrong about the long range forecast. I had said earlier that while I thought the temps through March and the beginning of April will be below average, I didn't think we'd see many more chances for snow. Looks like winter isn't ready just yet to give up its stronghold. Not saying we'll get anymore snow, but long range models definitely show a couple of possibilities.
James Daulton
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
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I'm not expert on this, but most experts will say that summer has no effect on winter. After last winter's brutal cold, they said that summer could be very hot. It wasn't. After a mild summer, we have another brutal winter. By looking at those factors, you'd think they might have something to do with each other.
But figures will show that we've had brutal winters followed by scorching summers just as many times as the winter/summer we had the past couple of years. So just because we had a very cold winter this year does not mean we will have a mild summer.
Koya
Footballguy
from everything I have read, we are still in a significant and potentially threatening phase of warming, it's probably man-driven and regardless of those two near certainties for those with objective brains, at the LEAST we are still trending to more weather variance, stronger and more frequent storms, etc.
that said, it's curious that our region has had its first "cool" summer in a long while, and just a brutal winter right after.
You geeks might like this post mortem on yesterday's storm from the WaPo CWG:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/03/06/polar-meets-pineapple-the-meteorology-behind-a-unique-winter-storm/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/03/06/polar-meets-pineapple-the-meteorology-behind-a-unique-winter-storm/
TheIronSheik
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Koya
Footballguy
Just about everything I have seen on the topic suggests it is.
But not here for a GW debate... just want spring to hit, already.Lutherman2112
Footballguy
A weak jetstream allows for more frequent high-amplitude configurations that favor persistent weather patterns. The current pattern is warmer west coast and cooler northeast.
G
General Tso
Guest
It was downright balmy in CT today. I think we broke 40 degrees, which literally had me outside in a tee shirt to soak up some rays. I also had to clear a path to my front door, which has been inaccessible under over 4 feet of snow for the past month.
Look for all sorts of crazy reports of people getting hurt clearing their roofs of snow in the coming weeks. I saw two wahoos shoveling snow (not raking it mind you - shoveling it) on a pitched roof again today - three stories up - without harnesses. I got an estimate yesterday to clear the roof on my one story ranch and it was $800. No thanks.
Look for all sorts of crazy reports of people getting hurt clearing their roofs of snow in the coming weeks. I saw two wahoos shoveling snow (not raking it mind you - shoveling it) on a pitched roof again today - three stories up - without harnesses. I got an estimate yesterday to clear the roof on my one story ranch and it was $800. No thanks.
Swing 51
Footballguy
My phone shows a snowflake for Fri (DC area)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/03/09/d-c-area-forecast-springlike-warmth-today-and-springlike-changeable-weather-thereafter/
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Lowest high I see for the next 10 days is 46 degrees. Shut it down for 2015 Sheik! 
Fat Nick
Footballguy
Now we just need the following:Lowest high I see for the next 10 days is 46 degrees. Shut it down for 2015 Sheik!
-Continued highs to melt all this ####
-ONE HEAVY rain storm to clean off all the salt and crap all over the roads
-NJDOT (or your highway department) to get at it fixing pot-holes
Then...it's sports car season. Woot woot!
So sick of driving the SUV...I need some driving therapy.My wife kept saying, "It's SO nice outside," yesterday. I told her that if she wanted to take the snow shovel out and shovel off our deck she could. She declined.
TheIronSheik
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Don't get fooled. This is not going to last. Around the end of next week, temperatures will crash and we will see below to well below average temps into April. End of the month even has the perfect setup for a huge east coast storm. Could be too warm for a lot of us (upper 30's), but something to keep an eye on. Enjoy these next 10 days while you can. This is not the spring you are looking for.Billy Bats said:Lowest high I see for the next 10 days is 46 degrees. Shut it down for 2015 Sheik!
TheIronSheik
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Winter Storm Watches back up for Hawaii.
TheIronSheik
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Interesting scenario setting up for the March 20-25 time frame. Every single factor that is needed for a snowstorm will be occurring then. And not just occurring, but occurring in a major way! Some indications are off the charts. Like, literally, off the charts. You're probably saying, "Yeah, but it'll be spring then, so no need to worry about snow, right?" Wrong. The Blizzard of 93 hit right around the same time frame.Don't get fooled. This is not going to last. Around the end of next week, temperatures will crash and we will see below to well below average temps into April. End of the month even has the perfect setup for a huge east coast storm. Could be too warm for a lot of us (upper 30's), but something to keep an eye on. Enjoy these next 10 days while you can. This is not the spring you are looking for.Lowest high I see for the next 10 days is 46 degrees. Shut it down for 2015 Sheik!
One of the pro mets I follow called it a "special event" that is setting up. Something that could be historic. So that means it's a definite? Not at all. But this is something to watch. Like, seriously watch.
James Daulton
Footballguy
Move on. It's Spring!Interesting scenario setting up for the March 20-25 time frame. Every single factor that is needed for a snowstorm will be occurring then. And not just occurring, but occurring in a major way! Some indications are off the charts. Like, literally, off the charts. You're probably saying, "Yeah, but it'll be spring then, so no need to worry about snow, right?" Wrong. The Blizzard of 93 hit right around the same time frame.Don't get fooled. This is not going to last. Around the end of next week, temperatures will crash and we will see below to well below average temps into April. End of the month even has the perfect setup for a huge east coast storm. Could be too warm for a lot of us (upper 30's), but something to keep an eye on. Enjoy these next 10 days while you can. This is not the spring you are looking for.Lowest high I see for the next 10 days is 46 degrees. Shut it down for 2015 Sheik!
One of the pro mets I follow called it a "special event" that is setting up. Something that could be historic. So that means it's a definite? Not at all. But this is something to watch. Like, seriously watch.
TheIronSheik
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Think what you want. We could see a wintry mix this Friday-Saturday. And that time frame I outlined is looking scary.Move on. It's Spring!Interesting scenario setting up for the March 20-25 time frame. Every single factor that is needed for a snowstorm will be occurring then. And not just occurring, but occurring in a major way! Some indications are off the charts. Like, literally, off the charts. You're probably saying, "Yeah, but it'll be spring then, so no need to worry about snow, right?" Wrong. The Blizzard of 93 hit right around the same time frame.Don't get fooled. This is not going to last. Around the end of next week, temperatures will crash and we will see below to well below average temps into April. End of the month even has the perfect setup for a huge east coast storm. Could be too warm for a lot of us (upper 30's), but something to keep an eye on. Enjoy these next 10 days while you can. This is not the spring you are looking for.Lowest high I see for the next 10 days is 46 degrees. Shut it down for 2015 Sheik!
One of the pro mets I follow called it a "special event" that is setting up. Something that could be historic. So that means it's a definite? Not at all. But this is something to watch. Like, seriously watch.
3C's
Footballguy
Think you'll like this.Think what you want. We could see a wintry mix this Friday-Saturday. And that time frame I outlined is looking scary.Move on. It's Spring!Interesting scenario setting up for the March 20-25 time frame. Every single factor that is needed for a snowstorm will be occurring then. And not just occurring, but occurring in a major way! Some indications are off the charts. Like, literally, off the charts. You're probably saying, "Yeah, but it'll be spring then, so no need to worry about snow, right?" Wrong. The Blizzard of 93 hit right around the same time frame.Don't get fooled. This is not going to last. Around the end of next week, temperatures will crash and we will see below to well below average temps into April. End of the month even has the perfect setup for a huge east coast storm. Could be too warm for a lot of us (upper 30's), but something to keep an eye on. Enjoy these next 10 days while you can. This is not the spring you are looking for.Lowest high I see for the next 10 days is 46 degrees. Shut it down for 2015 Sheik!
One of the pro mets I follow called it a "special event" that is setting up. Something that could be historic. So that means it's a definite? Not at all. But this is something to watch. Like, seriously watch.
https://www.facebook.com/WxSynopsis/posts/879454165455492 followed by https://www.facebook.com/VATCP/posts/1044999095514677
TheIronSheik
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Yup. This is exactly what I'm referring to. Every single indicator is pointing to something huge. The MJO is off the charts. Seeing record readings on the other indicators. It's wild.Think you'll like this.Think what you want. We could see a wintry mix this Friday-Saturday. And that time frame I outlined is looking scary.Move on. It's Spring!Interesting scenario setting up for the March 20-25 time frame. Every single factor that is needed for a snowstorm will be occurring then. And not just occurring, but occurring in a major way! Some indications are off the charts. Like, literally, off the charts. You're probably saying, "Yeah, but it'll be spring then, so no need to worry about snow, right?" Wrong. The Blizzard of 93 hit right around the same time frame.Don't get fooled. This is not going to last. Around the end of next week, temperatures will crash and we will see below to well below average temps into April. End of the month even has the perfect setup for a huge east coast storm. Could be too warm for a lot of us (upper 30's), but something to keep an eye on. Enjoy these next 10 days while you can. This is not the spring you are looking for.Lowest high I see for the next 10 days is 46 degrees. Shut it down for 2015 Sheik!
One of the pro mets I follow called it a "special event" that is setting up. Something that could be historic. So that means it's a definite? Not at all. But this is something to watch. Like, seriously watch.
https://www.facebook.com/WxSynopsis/posts/879454165455492 followed by https://www.facebook.com/VATCP/posts/1044999095514677
TheIronSheik
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22 years ago today was the Blizzard of '93. Could we see a repeat in about 10 days?
James Daulton
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
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James Daulton
Footballguy
Lutherman2112
Footballguy
I will never forget that storm. I had just been promoted to assistant manager of wait staff (started as a waiter, then worked the kitchen during day and waited nights on weekends). So I worked double shifts all that week; kitchen in the day, closing dinning room at night. Didn't hear a peep about a storm all week as I was so busy working...until Friday morning. Everybody was talking about it, and I thought it was just BS exaggeration. Stopped seating Friday night at 10, closed at 11, left a little after 12. It started snowing after close, but by the time I left, centerlines of a two lane road were difficult to see due to accumulation and the heavy rate of snow made visibility tough. I didn't think it was going to be serious storm. However...
This was the first time I experienced 20 inches of snow in 24 hours.
This was the first time I experienced lightning in a snowstorm.
This was the first time I experienced thunder in a snowstorm.
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Parrothead
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
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James Daulton
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
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TheIronSheik
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Maybe down south. But cold air will most likely be in place. This week was not the break of cold weather. It's only a break. Below average temps will be in place until almost the first week of April.
James Daulton
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
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Because that's never happened before? Again, no one is saying a snowstorm is imminent. But the setup for a storm is the best it's been in about a decade. And this isn't me just saying this. Almost every forecaster (pro and amateur) is looking at this timeframe and licking their lips. This is big. One very well respected, long time meteorologist stated that areas to the east of the Rockies could be in for a very special weather event for this timeframe.
Rohn Jambo
Footballguy
jhib
Footballguy
Sort of makes you appreciate places like Buffalo and Syracuse (not to mention the smaller cities and towns in Tug Hill & the UP of Michigan).
They are having pretty average seasons, and they're still a bit ahead of Boston (despite the mayor's stupid "title city" quote).
TheIronSheik
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Looks like Friday/Saturday will be the first attempt at late season snow. Models have been bouncing back and forth with it, but as of now, aren't too impressed. This will be what's known as "Thread the Needle" type storms. Everything would have to line up perfect. Ideally, we'd want it to start during the overnight period.
Again, nothing is definite here. And there's a better chance of nothing happening than there is of something happening. But that doesn't mean nothing will happen. Going to be an interesting couple of days watching the models run.
Again, nothing is definite here. And there's a better chance of nothing happening than there is of something happening. But that doesn't mean nothing will happen. Going to be an interesting couple of days watching the models run.
The CWG forecast for the end of this week for DC Metro:
A LOOK AHEAD
Temperatures on Wednesday are a good 15-20 degrees cooler than Tuesday. Despite lots of sun, highs probably stay below 50 – with mid-40s in our cooler suburbs to the upper 40s downtown. Winds from the northwest around 10 mph in the morning become light and variable in the afternoon. Clear to partly cloudy and cold Wednesday night, with lows in the 20s to near 30 (downtown). Light winds. Confidence: Medium-High
Clouds increase on Thursday with a slight (20-30 percent) chance of rain late in the day, or mixed rain and snow in our colder suburbs. Highs are mostly in the 40s. Rain and/or wet snow (mainly in our colder areas) are possible Thursday night with lows in the 30s. Right now, any snow that falls does not look like it will accumulate much but keep an eye on the forecast. Confidence: Medium
Friday and Saturday should both be mostly cloudy and cooler than normal. A front stalled to the south keeps a small chance of rain in the picture (20 percent chance) but it’s probably mostly (if not totally) dry. Highs both days are near 50, with overnight lows 35-40. Confidence: Low-Medium
On Sunday, a new cold front from the northwest zips through the region. There’s just a small chance of shower early in the day, before it turns partly to mostly sunny but blustery. Highs are in the 40s to near 50, but it feels colder than that. Confidence: Low-Medium
A LOOK AHEAD
Temperatures on Wednesday are a good 15-20 degrees cooler than Tuesday. Despite lots of sun, highs probably stay below 50 – with mid-40s in our cooler suburbs to the upper 40s downtown. Winds from the northwest around 10 mph in the morning become light and variable in the afternoon. Clear to partly cloudy and cold Wednesday night, with lows in the 20s to near 30 (downtown). Light winds. Confidence: Medium-High
Clouds increase on Thursday with a slight (20-30 percent) chance of rain late in the day, or mixed rain and snow in our colder suburbs. Highs are mostly in the 40s. Rain and/or wet snow (mainly in our colder areas) are possible Thursday night with lows in the 30s. Right now, any snow that falls does not look like it will accumulate much but keep an eye on the forecast. Confidence: Medium
Friday and Saturday should both be mostly cloudy and cooler than normal. A front stalled to the south keeps a small chance of rain in the picture (20 percent chance) but it’s probably mostly (if not totally) dry. Highs both days are near 50, with overnight lows 35-40. Confidence: Low-Medium
On Sunday, a new cold front from the northwest zips through the region. There’s just a small chance of shower early in the day, before it turns partly to mostly sunny but blustery. Highs are in the 40s to near 50, but it feels colder than that. Confidence: Low-Medium
TheIronSheik
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I'm not entirely sure of their forecast area, but I can see how they think it might be hard to get accumulation down there. I know the guys up here are saying the same thing, but they are not writing it off.
The GFS just ran a little bit ago and showed E PA and NJ getting hammered. Of course that doesn't mean much other than that the models are seeing the storm signal and are starting to run with it. Should be interesting.
TheIronSheik
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Couple of models showing some good snowfall for the MA, but the issue is going to be the timing. Snowfall maps that say 8 inches of snow only measure snowFALL, not snow accumulation.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
5-8 inches in Philadelphia area on Friday? No mas. No mas.
Mr. Ected
Footballguy
I'm hearing 2-4" out here in Loudoun County. Another potential 3 day weekend.
TheIronSheik
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4 to 6 here. If only someone had warned us about this a couple of weeks ago. End of the timeframe for this active pattern is Wednesday, and there could be another system around then.
Angle of the sun will play a large part in these storms. So even if 6 inches fall, you might only see 4 inches on the grass and half that on the roads. The earlier it starts, the better chance of more accumulation. Models have been trending overnight to an earlier start.
Angle of the sun will play a large part in these storms. So even if 6 inches fall, you might only see 4 inches on the grass and half that on the roads. The earlier it starts, the better chance of more accumulation. Models have been trending overnight to an earlier start.
Fat Nick
Footballguy
Man...I was really hoping that the 3" estimate had gone down...not up. This is not what I wanted to hear. I'm starting to really fall into a seasonal depression rut. I need to get outside and get active in the yard and shake this funk I've been in.
Swing 51
Footballguy
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