Snowmageddon 2022 (7 Viewers)

[JaxBill]

It was just dumping snow for a few minutes at work here in Florham Park, NJ. Nothing stuck, and it's slowed down, but it was coming down hard briefly.

Yeah. That was expected. A nice coating on non-paved surfaces. I'm still watching Sunday. Doesn't look like we'll get a huge Easter Nor'Easter like I hoped. Mainly, I just like saying Easter Nor'Easter. But a good 3+ inches is still possible.

HO-HO-HO!!! MERRY EASTER!!

Isn't that when they roll away the stone for Jesus and if he sees his shadow ....

 

[TheIronSheik]

It was just dumping snow for a few minutes at work here in Florham Park, NJ. Nothing stuck, and it's slowed down, but it was coming down hard briefly.

Yeah. That was expected. A nice coating on non-paved surfaces. I'm still watching Sunday. Doesn't look like we'll get a huge Easter Nor'Easter like I hoped. Mainly, I just like saying Easter Nor'Easter. But a good 3+ inches is still possible.

HO-HO-HO!!! MERRY EASTER!!

Isn't that when they roll away the stone for Jesus and if he sees his shadow ....

Exactly. That's my go to joke on Easter. Not everyone finds it as funny as me.

 

[Parrothead]

It was just dumping snow for a few minutes at work here in Florham Park, NJ. Nothing stuck, and it's slowed down, but it was coming down hard briefly.

Yeah. That was expected. A nice coating on non-paved surfaces. I'm still watching Sunday. Doesn't look like we'll get a huge Easter Nor'Easter like I hoped. Mainly, I just like saying Easter Nor'Easter. But a good 3+ inches is still possible.

HO-HO-HO!!! MERRY EASTER!!

Isn't that when they roll away the stone for Jesus and if he sees his shadow ....

Exactly. That's my go to joke on Easter. Not everyone finds it as funny as me.

mine is "I hear they are cancelling Easter- they found the body"

 

[Fat Nick]

It was just dumping snow for a few minutes at work here in Florham Park, NJ. Nothing stuck, and it's slowed down, but it was coming down hard briefly.

Yeah. That was expected. A nice coating on non-paved surfaces. I'm still watching Sunday. Doesn't look like we'll get a huge Easter Nor'Easter like I hoped. Mainly, I just like saying Easter Nor'Easter. But a good 3+ inches is still possible.

HO-HO-HO!!! MERRY EASTER!!

FYI - Liking this for yoru humor, not because I'm looking for snow. Just to be clear.

 

[TheIronSheik]

FREEZE WARNING tonight. Lows near 29. Could see some flurries. Yay, springtime!

 

[TheIronSheik]

As of this morning, all of the snow in Boston has officially melted.

 

[TheIronSheik]

LINK

Great article on what effects the "strong" El Niño will have on the Mid Atlantic winter.

Winter is coming.

 

[larch]

LINK

Here is that article:

The ‘significant and strengthening‘ El Niño event in the tropical Pacific is on the cusp of attaining a rating of “strong”, which has happened only five times since 1950. The National Weather Service says this event is almost certain to last through the winter.

We keep getting the question, what does the strong El Niño mean for Washington, D.C. this winter?

During the five strongest El Niños since 1950, winters either featured among the most paralyzing snowstorms in Washington, D.C.’s history or hardly any snow at all.

Why such variation? El Niños tend to have two primary effects on U.S. weather which play out in complicated ways over the Mid-Atlantic: 1) They push the average position of polar jet stream north, which favors warmer than normal air over the region 2) They intensify the moisture supply along the southern jet stream, increasing the potential storminess.

The combination of these two El Niño effects sometimes means D.C. gets flooded with mild air throughout the winter, favoring rain rather than snow when moisture-laden storms come along. But, at other times, just enough cold air hangs around for it to get hammered by a crippling snowstorm. (Whether there is sufficient cold air is often dependent on the state of the Arctic Oscillation).

Below I summarize Washington’s winter weather conditions during the five strongest El Niño events, revealing the wildly contrasting outcomes….

1957-1958: Strong El Niño, 40.4 inches of snow

From end to end, 1957-1958 was a blockbuster snow winter in Washington, D.C. A foot fell in December, over 17 inches in February, and over 10 inches in March. The winter was highlighted by the snowstorms on February 15-16 and March 19-21.

The mid-February storm dumped 14.4 inches of snow at Reagan National. “At the Bowie race track over 5000 people were stranded while the Pennsylvania Railroad sent rescue trains which were delayed many hours,” the National Weather Service writes.

The late March storm, a slow moving Nor’easter, laid down 4.4 inches at Reagan National but much greater amounts to the north and northeast. In sections of Baltimore and its north and northeast suburbs 20-30 inches fell. “Up to a million homes lost phone service and 2000 poles came down,” the National Weather Service writes. “300,000 homes lost electricity including the entire communities of Frederick, Annapolis, Aberdeen, Bel Air, and Havre De Grace. For many, it was over a week before power was restored.”

It was a colder than normal winter, with an average temperature of 35.7 degrees (compared to the 1981-2010 normal of 38.1 degrees).

1965-1966: Strong El Niño, 28.4 inches of snow

The winter of 1965-1966 was a snowy one, although the snow concentrated in January and February, when 21.3 inches and 6.9 inches fell, respectively. The storm of the winter occurred January 29-30, when 13.8 inches fell, on top of 6 inches already on the ground. “Intense blowing and drifting snow continued [after the storm] and kept roads closed for several more days crippling transportation lines and causing a food shortage and rationing,” the National Weather Service writes.

It was a slightly colder than normal winter, with an average temperature of 36.7.

1972-1973: Strong El Niño, 0.1 inches of snow

Washington, D.C. was practically shut out of snow in the winter of 1972-1973, with just 0.1 inches measured in February at National Airport. Modestly more snow fell north and west of the District. Dulles Airport recorded 2.2 inches, scattered over 6 months (0.1 inches in October, 0.6 inches in November, a trace in January, 0.3 inches in February, 0.2 inches in March, and 0.1 inches in April). This must have been a very frustrating tease of a winter for snow lovers.

Temperatures were slightly above normal, with an average temperature of 39.4

1982-1983: Very strong El Niño, 39.2 inches of snow

In what was the second most intense El Niño event on record, it was a mild winter in Washington with an average temperature of 40.8 degrees. There were long snowless stretches, but the winter delivered an impressive seasonal snow total of nearly 40 inches thanks to big storms in December and February.

A storm on December 12 dropped 6-10 inches of snow over the region, but – by far – the winter was defined by the blizzard on February 11-12, which paralyzed the region after unloading 16.6 inches at Reagan National Airport. “For a couple hours of the storm, snow fall at an amazing rate of 3.5 inches per hour,” the National Weather Service writes. “Thunderstorms intensified the snowfall in some areas.Winds gusted over 25 mph all day on February 11 causing drifts up to five feet.”

1997-1998: Very strong El Nino, 0.1 inches of snow

The strongest El Niño on record produced a warm and virtually snowless winter in the District. While Reagan National only received 0.1 inches in December, Dulles Airport, managed 5.9 inches of snow over the course of the winter (4.7 inches in December, 0.5 inches in January, and 0.7 inches in February)

The average temperature was 42.5 degrees at Reagan National, several degrees above average.

Look ahead

In three of the five big El Niño winters, blockbuster snowstorms (3 of the top 15, and 2 of the top 10 biggest on record) brought the D.C. area to a standstill while basically no snow fell in the other two. A sample size of five is an impossibly small sample size to project what will happen this winter with a strong El Niño likely in place.

All we can say is that we’ll have elevated chances of getting hit by a really big snowstorm given an intensified southern jet stream, but that’s only if cold air is around.

It should be a very interesting winter.

 

[TheIronSheik]

LINK

Here is that article:

The ‘significant and strengthening‘ El Niño event in the tropical Pacific is on the cusp of attaining a rating of “strong”, which has happened only five times since 1950. The National Weather Service says this event is almost certain to last through the winter.

We keep getting the question, what does the strong El Niño mean for Washington, D.C. this winter?

During the five strongest El Niños since 1950, winters either featured among the most paralyzing snowstorms in Washington, D.C.’s history or hardly any snow at all.

Why such variation? El Niños tend to have two primary effects on U.S. weather which play out in complicated ways over the Mid-Atlantic: 1) They push the average position of polar jet stream north, which favors warmer than normal air over the region 2) They intensify the moisture supply along the southern jet stream, increasing the potential storminess.

The combination of these two El Niño effects sometimes means D.C. gets flooded with mild air throughout the winter, favoring rain rather than snow when moisture-laden storms come along. But, at other times, just enough cold air hangs around for it to get hammered by a crippling snowstorm. (Whether there is sufficient cold air is often dependent on the state of the Arctic Oscillation).

Below I summarize Washington’s winter weather conditions during the five strongest El Niño events, revealing the wildly contrasting outcomes….

1957-1958: Strong El Niño, 40.4 inches of snow

From end to end, 1957-1958 was a blockbuster snow winter in Washington, D.C. A foot fell in December, over 17 inches in February, and over 10 inches in March. The winter was highlighted by the snowstorms on February 15-16 and March 19-21.

The mid-February storm dumped 14.4 inches of snow at Reagan National. “At the Bowie race track over 5000 people were stranded while the Pennsylvania Railroad sent rescue trains which were delayed many hours,” the National Weather Service writes.

The late March storm, a slow moving Nor’easter, laid down 4.4 inches at Reagan National but much greater amounts to the north and northeast. In sections of Baltimore and its north and northeast suburbs 20-30 inches fell. “Up to a million homes lost phone service and 2000 poles came down,” the National Weather Service writes. “300,000 homes lost electricity including the entire communities of Frederick, Annapolis, Aberdeen, Bel Air, and Havre De Grace. For many, it was over a week before power was restored.”

It was a colder than normal winter, with an average temperature of 35.7 degrees (compared to the 1981-2010 normal of 38.1 degrees).

1965-1966: Strong El Niño, 28.4 inches of snow

The winter of 1965-1966 was a snowy one, although the snow concentrated in January and February, when 21.3 inches and 6.9 inches fell, respectively. The storm of the winter occurred January 29-30, when 13.8 inches fell, on top of 6 inches already on the ground. “Intense blowing and drifting snow continued [after the storm] and kept roads closed for several more days crippling transportation lines and causing a food shortage and rationing,” the National Weather Service writes.

It was a slightly colder than normal winter, with an average temperature of 36.7.

1972-1973: Strong El Niño, 0.1 inches of snow

Washington, D.C. was practically shut out of snow in the winter of 1972-1973, with just 0.1 inches measured in February at National Airport. Modestly more snow fell north and west of the District. Dulles Airport recorded 2.2 inches, scattered over 6 months (0.1 inches in October, 0.6 inches in November, a trace in January, 0.3 inches in February, 0.2 inches in March, and 0.1 inches in April). This must have been a very frustrating tease of a winter for snow lovers.

Temperatures were slightly above normal, with an average temperature of 39.4

1982-1983: Very strong El Niño, 39.2 inches of snow

In what was the second most intense El Niño event on record, it was a mild winter in Washington with an average temperature of 40.8 degrees. There were long snowless stretches, but the winter delivered an impressive seasonal snow total of nearly 40 inches thanks to big storms in December and February.

A storm on December 12 dropped 6-10 inches of snow over the region, but – by far – the winter was defined by the blizzard on February 11-12, which paralyzed the region after unloading 16.6 inches at Reagan National Airport. “For a couple hours of the storm, snow fall at an amazing rate of 3.5 inches per hour,” the National Weather Service writes. “Thunderstorms intensified the snowfall in some areas.Winds gusted over 25 mph all day on February 11 causing drifts up to five feet.”

1997-1998: Very strong El Nino, 0.1 inches of snow

The strongest El Niño on record produced a warm and virtually snowless winter in the District. While Reagan National only received 0.1 inches in December, Dulles Airport, managed 5.9 inches of snow over the course of the winter (4.7 inches in December, 0.5 inches in January, and 0.7 inches in February)

The average temperature was 42.5 degrees at Reagan National, several degrees above average.

Look ahead

In three of the five big El Niño winters, blockbuster snowstorms (3 of the top 15, and 2 of the top 10 biggest on record) brought the D.C. area to a standstill while basically no snow fell in the other two. A sample size of five is an impossibly small sample size to project what will happen this winter with a strong El Niño likely in place.

All we can say is that we’ll have elevated chances of getting hit by a really big snowstorm given an intensified southern jet stream, but that’s only if cold air is around.

It should be a very interesting winter.

Was the link not sufficient?

 

[Mr. Ected]

LINK

Great article on what effects the "strong" El Niño will have on the Mid Atlantic winter.

Winter is coming.

Read something on Facebook from a local guy here in NoVA who does a really good job with forcasting. (Jay's Wintry Mix on FB).

The European Model has 9 straight 90 plus degree days for us starting on Saturday with very little rain chances. Looks like Summer is going for the knockout punch. The El Nino continues to get stronger and i would except to see a parade of big storms this winter. I think this winter has a better than average change to give us a historical storm (like a 1983,1996,2003,2009 type) storm.

 

[larch]

LINK

Here is that article:

The ‘significant and strengthening‘ El Niño event in the tropical Pacific is on the cusp of attaining a rating of “strong”, which has happened only five times since 1950. The National Weather Service says this event is almost certain to last through the winter.

We keep getting the question, what does the strong El Niño mean for Washington, D.C. this winter?

During the five strongest El Niños since 1950, winters either featured among the most paralyzing snowstorms in Washington, D.C.’s history or hardly any snow at all.

Why such variation? El Niños tend to have two primary effects on U.S. weather which play out in complicated ways over the Mid-Atlantic: 1) They push the average position of polar jet stream north, which favors warmer than normal air over the region 2) They intensify the moisture supply along the southern jet stream, increasing the potential storminess.

The combination of these two El Niño effects sometimes means D.C. gets flooded with mild air throughout the winter, favoring rain rather than snow when moisture-laden storms come along. But, at other times, just enough cold air hangs around for it to get hammered by a crippling snowstorm. (Whether there is sufficient cold air is often dependent on the state of the Arctic Oscillation).

Below I summarize Washington’s winter weather conditions during the five strongest El Niño events, revealing the wildly contrasting outcomes….

1957-1958: Strong El Niño, 40.4 inches of snow

From end to end, 1957-1958 was a blockbuster snow winter in Washington, D.C. A foot fell in December, over 17 inches in February, and over 10 inches in March. The winter was highlighted by the snowstorms on February 15-16 and March 19-21.

The mid-February storm dumped 14.4 inches of snow at Reagan National. “At the Bowie race track over 5000 people were stranded while the Pennsylvania Railroad sent rescue trains which were delayed many hours,” the National Weather Service writes.

The late March storm, a slow moving Nor’easter, laid down 4.4 inches at Reagan National but much greater amounts to the north and northeast. In sections of Baltimore and its north and northeast suburbs 20-30 inches fell. “Up to a million homes lost phone service and 2000 poles came down,” the National Weather Service writes. “300,000 homes lost electricity including the entire communities of Frederick, Annapolis, Aberdeen, Bel Air, and Havre De Grace. For many, it was over a week before power was restored.”

It was a colder than normal winter, with an average temperature of 35.7 degrees (compared to the 1981-2010 normal of 38.1 degrees).

1965-1966: Strong El Niño, 28.4 inches of snow

The winter of 1965-1966 was a snowy one, although the snow concentrated in January and February, when 21.3 inches and 6.9 inches fell, respectively. The storm of the winter occurred January 29-30, when 13.8 inches fell, on top of 6 inches already on the ground. “Intense blowing and drifting snow continued [after the storm] and kept roads closed for several more days crippling transportation lines and causing a food shortage and rationing,” the National Weather Service writes.

It was a slightly colder than normal winter, with an average temperature of 36.7.

1972-1973: Strong El Niño, 0.1 inches of snow

Washington, D.C. was practically shut out of snow in the winter of 1972-1973, with just 0.1 inches measured in February at National Airport. Modestly more snow fell north and west of the District. Dulles Airport recorded 2.2 inches, scattered over 6 months (0.1 inches in October, 0.6 inches in November, a trace in January, 0.3 inches in February, 0.2 inches in March, and 0.1 inches in April). This must have been a very frustrating tease of a winter for snow lovers.

Temperatures were slightly above normal, with an average temperature of 39.4

1982-1983: Very strong El Niño, 39.2 inches of snow

In what was the second most intense El Niño event on record, it was a mild winter in Washington with an average temperature of 40.8 degrees. There were long snowless stretches, but the winter delivered an impressive seasonal snow total of nearly 40 inches thanks to big storms in December and February.

A storm on December 12 dropped 6-10 inches of snow over the region, but – by far – the winter was defined by the blizzard on February 11-12, which paralyzed the region after unloading 16.6 inches at Reagan National Airport. “For a couple hours of the storm, snow fall at an amazing rate of 3.5 inches per hour,” the National Weather Service writes. “Thunderstorms intensified the snowfall in some areas.Winds gusted over 25 mph all day on February 11 causing drifts up to five feet.”

1997-1998: Very strong El Nino, 0.1 inches of snow

The strongest El Niño on record produced a warm and virtually snowless winter in the District. While Reagan National only received 0.1 inches in December, Dulles Airport, managed 5.9 inches of snow over the course of the winter (4.7 inches in December, 0.5 inches in January, and 0.7 inches in February)

The average temperature was 42.5 degrees at Reagan National, several degrees above average.

Look ahead

In three of the five big El Niño winters, blockbuster snowstorms (3 of the top 15, and 2 of the top 10 biggest on record) brought the D.C. area to a standstill while basically no snow fell in the other two. A sample size of five is an impossibly small sample size to project what will happen this winter with a strong El Niño likely in place.

All we can say is that we’ll have elevated chances of getting hit by a really big snowstorm given an intensified southern jet stream, but that’s only if cold air is around.

It should be a very interesting winter.

Was the link not sufficient?

Not if you reach your limit of free articles to read at the Washington Post for the month.

 

[TheIronSheik]

LINK

Great article on what effects the "strong" El Niño will have on the Mid Atlantic winter.

Winter is coming.

Read something on Facebook from a local guy here in NoVA who does a really good job with forcasting. (Jay's Wintry Mix on FB).

The European Model has 9 straight 90 plus degree days for us starting on Saturday with very little rain chances. Looks like Summer is going for the knockout punch. The El Nino continues to get stronger and i would except to see a parade of big storms this winter. I think this winter has a better than average change to give us a historical storm (like a 1983,1996,2003,2009 type) storm.

Yeah, that's one scenario the article listed. The MA is a very tough area to forecast based off of El Nino. It seems to be either feast or famine. I hope it's a doozy! While I love summer and the heat. It rarely gets me days off from work. That's the only bright side to winter time.

 

[TheIronSheik]

LINK

Here is that article:

The ‘significant and strengthening‘ El Niño event in the tropical Pacific is on the cusp of attaining a rating of “strong”, which has happened only five times since 1950. The National Weather Service says this event is almost certain to last through the winter.

We keep getting the question, what does the strong El Niño mean for Washington, D.C. this winter?

During the five strongest El Niños since 1950, winters either featured among the most paralyzing snowstorms in Washington, D.C.’s history or hardly any snow at all.

Why such variation? El Niños tend to have two primary effects on U.S. weather which play out in complicated ways over the Mid-Atlantic: 1) They push the average position of polar jet stream north, which favors warmer than normal air over the region 2) They intensify the moisture supply along the southern jet stream, increasing the potential storminess.

The combination of these two El Niño effects sometimes means D.C. gets flooded with mild air throughout the winter, favoring rain rather than snow when moisture-laden storms come along. But, at other times, just enough cold air hangs around for it to get hammered by a crippling snowstorm. (Whether there is sufficient cold air is often dependent on the state of the Arctic Oscillation).

Below I summarize Washington’s winter weather conditions during the five strongest El Niño events, revealing the wildly contrasting outcomes….

1957-1958: Strong El Niño, 40.4 inches of snow

From end to end, 1957-1958 was a blockbuster snow winter in Washington, D.C. A foot fell in December, over 17 inches in February, and over 10 inches in March. The winter was highlighted by the snowstorms on February 15-16 and March 19-21.

The mid-February storm dumped 14.4 inches of snow at Reagan National. “At the Bowie race track over 5000 people were stranded while the Pennsylvania Railroad sent rescue trains which were delayed many hours,” the National Weather Service writes.

The late March storm, a slow moving Nor’easter, laid down 4.4 inches at Reagan National but much greater amounts to the north and northeast. In sections of Baltimore and its north and northeast suburbs 20-30 inches fell. “Up to a million homes lost phone service and 2000 poles came down,” the National Weather Service writes. “300,000 homes lost electricity including the entire communities of Frederick, Annapolis, Aberdeen, Bel Air, and Havre De Grace. For many, it was over a week before power was restored.”

It was a colder than normal winter, with an average temperature of 35.7 degrees (compared to the 1981-2010 normal of 38.1 degrees).

1965-1966: Strong El Niño, 28.4 inches of snow

The winter of 1965-1966 was a snowy one, although the snow concentrated in January and February, when 21.3 inches and 6.9 inches fell, respectively. The storm of the winter occurred January 29-30, when 13.8 inches fell, on top of 6 inches already on the ground. “Intense blowing and drifting snow continued [after the storm] and kept roads closed for several more days crippling transportation lines and causing a food shortage and rationing,” the National Weather Service writes.

It was a slightly colder than normal winter, with an average temperature of 36.7.

1972-1973: Strong El Niño, 0.1 inches of snow

Washington, D.C. was practically shut out of snow in the winter of 1972-1973, with just 0.1 inches measured in February at National Airport. Modestly more snow fell north and west of the District. Dulles Airport recorded 2.2 inches, scattered over 6 months (0.1 inches in October, 0.6 inches in November, a trace in January, 0.3 inches in February, 0.2 inches in March, and 0.1 inches in April). This must have been a very frustrating tease of a winter for snow lovers.

Temperatures were slightly above normal, with an average temperature of 39.4

1982-1983: Very strong El Niño, 39.2 inches of snow

In what was the second most intense El Niño event on record, it was a mild winter in Washington with an average temperature of 40.8 degrees. There were long snowless stretches, but the winter delivered an impressive seasonal snow total of nearly 40 inches thanks to big storms in December and February.

A storm on December 12 dropped 6-10 inches of snow over the region, but – by far – the winter was defined by the blizzard on February 11-12, which paralyzed the region after unloading 16.6 inches at Reagan National Airport. “For a couple hours of the storm, snow fall at an amazing rate of 3.5 inches per hour,” the National Weather Service writes. “Thunderstorms intensified the snowfall in some areas.Winds gusted over 25 mph all day on February 11 causing drifts up to five feet.”

1997-1998: Very strong El Nino, 0.1 inches of snow

The strongest El Niño on record produced a warm and virtually snowless winter in the District. While Reagan National only received 0.1 inches in December, Dulles Airport, managed 5.9 inches of snow over the course of the winter (4.7 inches in December, 0.5 inches in January, and 0.7 inches in February)

The average temperature was 42.5 degrees at Reagan National, several degrees above average.

Look ahead

In three of the five big El Niño winters, blockbuster snowstorms (3 of the top 15, and 2 of the top 10 biggest on record) brought the D.C. area to a standstill while basically no snow fell in the other two. A sample size of five is an impossibly small sample size to project what will happen this winter with a strong El Niño likely in place.

All we can say is that we’ll have elevated chances of getting hit by a really big snowstorm given an intensified southern jet stream, but that’s only if cold air is around.

It should be a very interesting winter.

Was the link not sufficient?

Not if you reach your limit of free articles to read at the Washington Post for the month.

I did not realize that was a thing. Appreciate the posting of the article then. :thumbsup:

 

[TheIronSheik]

First day of meteorological autumn.

Winter is coming.

 

[Fat Nick]

First day of meteorological autumn.

Winter is coming.

Thanks for the reminder TheIronStark...

@ Winter...

 

[TheIronSheik]

New England could see their first snow of the season this weekend. And there is a chance that it is in the form of thundersnow.

 

[Mr. Ected]

New England could see their first snow of the season this weekend. And there is a chance that it is in the form of thundersnow.

Where? NH, VT, ME?

 

[Steve Tasker]

New England could see their first snow of the season this weekend. And there is a chance that it is in the form of thundersnow.

Speaking of thundersnow, today is the ninth anniversary of Buffalo's legendary "October Storm", October 12-13, 2006.

I remember going to work that day at UB football practice. Practice started at 3 PM IIRC, we were out setting up around 2:15-2:30 and the snow just started coming and wouldn't stop. We made it about a half-hour into practice before the coaches called it off and we went home. We used to joke that "the devil himself could come to UB, and we would still have practice"....well, that was the only time in my "career" where practice was ever cancelled or ended early. The campus didn't actually lose power, but no one had cell service for the most part. I trudged through the snow to the stadium on Friday 10/13 cause no one told me work was cancelled, and walked in to find it entirely deserted except for the LBs coach, his wife, and their kids, who were camping out in the coaches' offices because they couldn't get home and had no power or heat. I remember opening the tunnel door to the field and the snow was at least knee-high if not more. The Saturday 10/14 game against Miami was pushed back to Sunday, a rare Sunday college football game. We lost 38-31.

NY Times article from October 14. Some Buffalo News photos. Quotes from the NY Times article:

BUFFALO, Oct. 13 — An unusual early-fall snowstorm buried Buffalo and a broad swath of New York State reaching east to the Rochester suburbs late Thursday and early Friday, snarling traffic, snapping power lines and leaving almost 400,000 homes and businesses without electricity.



Officials attributed three deaths to the storm. Two died in automobile accidents, and a third was struck by a falling branch.
Even in Buffalo, where the ability to endure severe weather is a source of civic pride, few expected a snowstorm like this in mid-October — including those who predict them.

Don Paul, a meteorologist at WIVB-TV4 in Buffalo, has worked in the area for more than 20 years. “Of all the events I’ve seen here, this storm involves the most widespread devastation in the most populated area,” he said. “It’s absolutely an historic storm.” According to the National Weather Service, 8.6 inches of snow fell Thursday, breaking the previous mark for the month, 6 inches, set on Oct. 31, 1917. About 14 inches fell on Friday, for a total of 22.6 inches at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.

[. . .]

The situation was especially severe in Buffalo, where Mayor Byron Brown said about 70 percent of the city’s 285,000 residents were without electricity.

Heavy wet snow started falling about 2 p.m. Thursday. Snow built up on the leaves and branches of trees, bending and breaking even the healthiest of trunks.

Heightening the clash of seasons, lightning flashed through the night and loud claps of thunder mingled with the cracks and pops of trees giving way under the weight of the snow. “It sounded like gunshots,” said Percy Jackson, 18, who spent the day off from school shoveling sidewalks.

The falling trees severed power lines, damaged cars and houses, and blocked countless streets.

 

[Super King]

New England could see their first snow of the season this weekend. And there is a chance that it is in the form of thundersnow.

Speaking of thundersnow, today is the ninth anniversary of Buffalo's legendary "October Storm", October 12-13, 2006.I remember going to work that day at UB football practice. Practice started at 3 PM IIRC, we were out setting up around 2:15-2:30 and the snow just started coming and wouldn't stop. We made it about a half-hour into practice before the coaches called it off and we went home. We used to joke that "the devil himself could come to UB, and we would still have practice"....well, that was the only time in my "career" where practice was ever cancelled or ended early. The campus didn't actually lose power, but no one had cell service for the most part. I trudged through the snow to the stadium on Friday 10/13 cause no one told me work was cancelled, and walked in to find it entirely deserted except for the LBs coach, his wife, and their kids, who were camping out in the coaches' offices because they couldn't get home and had no power or heat. I remember opening the tunnel door to the field and the snow was at least knee-high if not more. The Saturday 10/14 game against Miami was pushed back to Sunday, a rare Sunday college football game. We lost 38-31.

NY Times article from October 14. Some Buffalo News photos. Quotes from the NY Times article:

BUFFALO, Oct. 13 An unusual early-fall snowstorm buried Buffalo and a broad swath of New York State reaching east to the Rochester suburbs late Thursday and early Friday, snarling traffic, snapping power lines and leaving almost 400,000 homes and businesses without electricity.

Officials attributed three deaths to the storm. Two died in automobile accidents, and a third was struck by a falling branch.

Even in Buffalo, where the ability to endure severe weather is a source of civic pride, few expected a snowstorm like this in mid-October including those who predict them.

Don Paul, a meteorologist at WIVB-TV4 in Buffalo, has worked in the area for more than 20 years. Of all the events Ive seen here, this storm involves the most widespread devastation in the most populated area, he said. Its absolutely an historic storm. According to the National Weather Service, 8.6 inches of snow fell Thursday, breaking the previous mark for the month, 6 inches, set on Oct. 31, 1917. About 14 inches fell on Friday, for a total of 22.6 inches at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.

[. . .]

The situation was especially severe in Buffalo, where Mayor Byron Brown said about 70 percent of the citys 285,000 residents were without electricity.

Heavy wet snow started falling about 2 p.m. Thursday. Snow built up on the leaves and branches of trees, bending and breaking even the healthiest of trunks.

Heightening the clash of seasons, lightning flashed through the night and loud claps of thunder mingled with the cracks and pops of trees giving way under the weight of the snow. It sounded like gunshots, said Percy Jackson, 18, who spent the day off from school shoveling sidewalks.

The falling trees severed power lines, damaged cars and houses, and blocked countless streets.

That was a crazy few days afterwards. We lost power for 6 days. Driving In the streets was like some whacky obstacle course. Charging cell phones in my buddy's truck (note: this was before universal USB chargers. Every cell phone had its own different charger. Luckily, my buddy an AC inverter for the car lighter)

 

[3C's]

Wife and daughter complaining the other day about it being too warm in the house and now it looks like near freezing temps will be here soon so the heat has to go on.

 

[Steve Tasker]

That was a crazy few days afterwards. We lost power for 6 days. Driving In the streets was like some whacky obstacle course. Charging cell phones in my buddy's truck (note: this was before universal USB chargers. Every cell phone had its own different charger. Luckily, my buddy an AC inverter for the car lighter)

Yeah it was wild. I remember my now-fiancee's parents' house in north Buffalo had power but couple of the sidestreets were totally blocked by downed trees. Just 2 minutes down the road, my buddy's parents' house had no power right by Nichols. He ended up spending the next week living on the couch of our on-campus apartment. Thankfully we inherited all of his food since his parents had no refrigerator. For a couple of days there, obstacle course is a pretty good description of driving...you never knew if you were going to make it to your destination or whether you'd come upon a giant downed tree in the street.

 

[Tom Servo]

New England could see their first snow of the season this weekend. And there is a chance that it is in the form of thundersnow.

I was going to smack you for updating this thread, but since you mentioned thundersnow (my favorite weather event), I'll let it slide.

 

[TheIronSheik]

New England could see their first snow of the season this weekend. And there is a chance that it is in the form of thundersnow.

Where? NH, VT, ME?

Anywhere along the front that's going to come roaring in this weekend. Before it gets to the Northeast, it'll have a chance to spawn some waterspouts over the Great Lakes, as well. Very strong cold front.

 

[Super King]

That was a crazy few days afterwards. We lost power for 6 days. Driving In the streets was like some whacky obstacle course. Charging cell phones in my buddy's truck (note: this was before universal USB chargers. Every cell phone had its own different charger. Luckily, my buddy an AC inverter for the car lighter)

Yeah it was wild. I remember my now-fiancee's parents' house in north Buffalo had power but couple of the sidestreets were totally blocked by downed trees. Just 2 minutes down the road, my buddy's parents' house had no power right by Nichols. He ended up spending the next week living on the couch of our on-campus apartment. Thankfully we inherited all of his food since his parents had no refrigerator. For a couple of days there, obstacle course is a pretty good description of driving...you never knew if you were going to make it to your destination or whether you'd come upon a giant downed tree in the street.

I remember seeing out of state tree removal crews still working up through August of the next year. So many trees went down...

 

[TheIronSheik]

Was at my daughter's softball game yesterday and as the game finished up, we got hit with a pretty crazy graupel storm. So much so that it actually left a coating on the grass and some roadways. Crazy to think I was out golfing in the morning, we got hit with graupel in the afternoon and the highs this week are supposed to be up in the mid 70's.

 

[3C's]

Yep, heat on now cuz it's freaking chilly. Probably will hit 80 some time this week.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

I had to scrape off my car this morning!!!!!

 

[James Daulton]

Was at my daughter's softball game yesterday and as the game finished up, we got hit with a pretty crazy graupel storm. So much so that it actually left a coating on the grass and some roadways. Crazy to think I was out golfing in the morning, we got hit with graupel in the afternoon and the highs this week are supposed to be up in the mid 70's.

WTF is graupel?

 

[TheIronSheik]

Was at my daughter's softball game yesterday and as the game finished up, we got hit with a pretty crazy graupel storm. So much so that it actually left a coating on the grass and some roadways. Crazy to think I was out golfing in the morning, we got hit with graupel in the afternoon and the highs this week are supposed to be up in the mid 70's.

WTF is graupel?

Here's a chart.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Seeing a few reports out the past couple days talking about long range forecasts. They are finally dipping into December (which is month 1 of 3 for meteorological winter) and they are pointing at slightly above average temps for my area, but also slightly above average snowfall amounts.

 

[Parrothead]

Seeing a few reports out the past couple days talking about long range forecasts. They are finally dipping into December (which is month 1 of 3 for meteorological winter) and they are pointing at slightly above average temps for my area, but also slightly above average snowfall amounts.

don't make me be the first to put you on ignore

 

[Mr. Ected]

Lewis Black

 

[James Daulton]

Was at my daughter's softball game yesterday and as the game finished up, we got hit with a pretty crazy graupel storm. So much so that it actually left a coating on the grass and some roadways. Crazy to think I was out golfing in the morning, we got hit with graupel in the afternoon and the highs this week are supposed to be up in the mid 70's.

WTF is graupel?

Here's a chart.

Weather nerds power, Unite!

 

[TheIronSheik]

Lots of winter forecasts starting to come out. It's going to be an interesting winter with El Nino.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Lots of winter forecasts starting to come out. It's going to be an interesting winter with El Nino.

I'm seeing a lot of belief in a warm start to the winter, followed by a cold and snowy end. Meteorological winter lasts Dec - Feb, so December could be above average, and Jan and Feb being the months to watch out for. Cold and active pattern setting up for winter 2016.

 

[mr roboto]

Oh noes! Winter will be cold and active!

 

[TheIronSheik]

Oh noes! Winter will be cold and active!

Only the back half. The 2015 portion of winter looks to be relatively mild.

 

[Mr. Ected]

Oh noes! Winter will be cold and active!

Only the back half. The 2015 portion of winter looks to be relatively mild.

And we know Mr. Sheik loves his back halves.

 

[James Daulton]

Oh noes! Winter will be cold and active!

Only the back half. The 2015 portion of winter looks to be relatively mild.

And we know Mr. Sheik loves his back halves.

lolz

 

[TheIronSheik]

Looks like El Nino has peaked.

 

[TheIronSheik]

So I've mentioned this before, but just wanted to put this out there as my disclaimer: People who do winter forecasting take lots of things into account. They analyze data from the past as well as current data. And it is a process that is way, way, way above what I have time for, or could probably even do well. So when I say, "here are my thoughts on the winter", I'm basically going off of what I've read from other winter forecasts. I read their details and see why they are making predictions the way they are. Then I compare it to other forecasts. Essentially, I'm just copying other people's hard work and drawing a conclusion from it. Since I'm not doing it for profit or page views, and instead only to tell friends of what to expect, I'm OK with it.

So that said, here's what winter looks like for the northeast. December looks to be normal to above normal temps and the same with precipitation. Even with a normal to above normal December, there will be chances for cold shots that match up with precipitation events. With El Nino dying down, January and February will usher in below average temps. Both will be possible very good setups for snowstorms, but February looks to be the month to watch for possible big storms. As we head out of winter, March looks to be a possible below average start with an above average end. The setup that is around in February could linger into March, so a late snowstorm could occur.

Overall, the winter looks to be below average temps with above average precipitation. Three winters in a row of the same, but this year has the possibility of less snow events, but higher snowfall totals per storm.

This month, November should be above average temps, so I don't really see anything brewing now. In fact, if the setup stays how it looks now, I'm hoping to get in a couple more rounds of golf before Thanksgiving.

 

[Steve Tasker]

Last year around this time (a week-and-a-half from now), Buffalo suburbs got 7 feet of snow. It's supposed to hit 70 tomorrow and up to 73 on Wednesday. Definitely above-average here for now....I've barely been wearing a jacket to work it's been so warm. Abnormal November temps for sure.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Blizzard warnings up for east of Denver.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Blizzard warnings up for east of Denver.

Good possibility for thundersnow in that area.

 

[Tom Servo]

KDKA's Jeff Verszyla issued his winter forecast for the Pittsburgh area almost 2 weeks ago.

Jeff predicts temperatures will be higher than normal from November through January.

February will be the coldest month of the winter with temperatures averaging 29.7 degrees, which is below normal.

Jeff says March will return to above normal temperatures and the possibility of an early spring.

Averaging it all out, Jeff predicts winter temperatures will be 1.5 degrees above normal.

When it comes to snowfall, Jeff predicts below normal totals in November, but the potential for nine inches in December, which is higher than average.

Jeff predicts January will see the storm track shift further south and that there will be fewer lake effect storms, leading to lower than normal snowfall.

Jeff says February will also be below normal at nine total inches, but may have some brief blasts of snow, and March will be fairly normal at 7½ inches with occasional small accumulations.

Jeff says all told, snowfall totals will come out to about 33 inches, which is about 6½ inches below normal and the lowest winter snow total in 10 years.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Looks like this year could be the year for the "big one" to hit Philly and/or DC.

 

[Mr. Ected]

NBC4 station in DC is predicting this for snowfall in DC area.

The weatherman's full forecast is here...

 

[TheIronSheik]

NBC4 station in DC is predicting this for snowfall in DC area.

The weatherman's full forecast is here...

Those seem low. I think more like 30 to 35 inches in the DC area.

Again, I'm no meteorologist so it's hard to argue with them.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Blizzard warnings up for east of Denver.

Good possibility for thundersnow in that area.

Mesoscale Discussion up for NE CO.

SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF AROUND ONE INCHARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME AND CONTINUE

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TODAY.

IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO

25-35 MPH RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

DISCUSSION...08Z MESOANALYSIS PLACED A 996 MB SURFACE LOW BETWEEN

ITR AND LAA IN ERN CO WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO CONTINUE

DEEPENING AS IT DEVELOPS ENEWD INTO N-CNTRL KS BY MID MORNING. THE

PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING COLD

ADVECTION TO OCCUR IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION

AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OWING

LARGELY TO DCVA AHEAD OF THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO

FURTHER THERMODYNAMIC COOLING AND AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION

COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...MOST LIKELY IN THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME.

POINT-FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT INITIALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL

LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND

PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. SUBSEQUENT SATURATION OF THE

FAVORED DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE /-12 TO -16 C/ SHOULD INTRODUCE ICE

CRYSTALS INTO A SATURATED ISOTHERMAL LAYER EXTENDING DOWNWARD

THROUGH ABOUT 780 MB...ENHANCING AGGREGATION PROCESSES AND RESULTING

IN PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING.

AT THE SAME TIME...INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE

DEEPENING SYNOPTIC CYCLONE WILL YIELD SURFACE WINDS OF 25-35 MPH

/WITH HIGHER GUSTS/ WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND

DRIFTING SNOW. EXPECT SNOW RATES TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF OVER WRN

PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH A SIMILAR TREND

OCCURRING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID

AFTERNOON.

 

[TheIronSheik]

NE PA, NY and New England could see their first snow showers this Friday night into Saturday. No accumulation or anything like that. But snow showers, nonetheless.

Winter is coming.