Snowmageddon 2022 (4 Viewers)

[James Daulton]

Euro just crapped all over this storm if you live north of the Mason Dixon line. I'm not sure I believe it just yet, but never a good sign when the Euro starts thinking differently than the other models. (See: Sandy, Hurricane)

So from storm of the century to nada? Weather nerds should be forbidden from forecasting any earlier than 24 hours out.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Euro just crapped all over this storm if you live north of the Mason Dixon line. I'm not sure I believe it just yet, but never a good sign when the Euro starts thinking differently than the other models. (See: Sandy, Hurricane)

Can you elaborate?

From what the best weather guy I "know" (from another forum) tells me, it leads to virtually no snow for the NY/NY area. Also said that the other models tend to follow the Euro with a call like this.

Yeah, key thing here is we are still 3 days out. Euro went from 2 feet in some areas to zip zilch in that same area in the course of 1 run. So no reason to panic just yet. Euro is also known to suppress energy, which is what could be happening here. All that said, it definitely makes your butt hole pucker a little. If we see 4 or 5 model runs in a row trending this way, then it's time to panic/get angry/blame Obama.

The Euro had south PA getting anywhere from 9 inches at the border to 2 inches where I live, to nada north of me.

 

[RUSF18]

Euro just crapped all over this storm if you live north of the Mason Dixon line. I'm not sure I believe it just yet, but never a good sign when the Euro starts thinking differently than the other models. (See: Sandy, Hurricane)

Can you elaborate?

From what the best weather guy I "know" (from another forum) tells me, it leads to virtually no snow for the NY/NY area. Also said that the other models tend to follow the Euro with a call like this.

Thanks. Is there a revised forecast map out yet? has it shifted south to VA/NC?

Euro just crapped all over this storm if you live north of the Mason Dixon line. I'm not sure I believe it just yet, but never a good sign when the Euro starts thinking differently than the other models. (See: Sandy, Hurricane)

So from storm of the century to nada? Weather nerds should be forbidden from forecasting any earlier than 24 hours out.

That's why they're weather nerds. From what I've read, the most reliable people don't put out forecast maps before 72 hours out.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Euro just crapped all over this storm if you live north of the Mason Dixon line. I'm not sure I believe it just yet, but never a good sign when the Euro starts thinking differently than the other models. (See: Sandy, Hurricane)

So from storm of the century to nada? Weather nerds should be forbidden from forecasting any earlier than 24 hours out.

It's not going away. It's just (per the model) shifting south. Places in VA and DC still show several feet of snowfall.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Euro just crapped all over this storm if you live north of the Mason Dixon line. I'm not sure I believe it just yet, but never a good sign when the Euro starts thinking differently than the other models. (See: Sandy, Hurricane)

So from storm of the century to nada? Weather nerds should be forbidden from forecasting any earlier than 24 hours out.

That's why they're weather nerds. From what I've read, the most reliable people don't put out forecast maps before 72 hours out.

I say that every storm. The snow maps that come out before that are simply to give you an idea of the path and size. If you see snowfall maps showing feet of snow, it's something to take notice of. As I just posted above, this storm isn't going away. It's still huge. And it's going to be huge for a very large area.

 

[VA703]

my never fail phone app has updated

Friday low 24 hi 34

snow: 5-8 inches

Saturday: low 30 hi 34

snow: 8-11 inches

sunday 20-33

0-1 inches

Monday 3-39

0 snow

 

[James Daulton]

Euro just crapped all over this storm if you live north of the Mason Dixon line. I'm not sure I believe it just yet, but never a good sign when the Euro starts thinking differently than the other models. (See: Sandy, Hurricane)

So from storm of the century to nada? Weather nerds should be forbidden from forecasting any earlier than 24 hours out.

It's not going away. It's just (per the model) shifting south. Places in VA and DC still show several feet of snowfall.

We good just west of Charm City?

 

[TheIronSheik]

Just want to point out the reason I post things here is not to give a forecast. Anyone that wants a forecast can look on their phones or weather apps. I always say that what I'm posting is not to be taken verbatim and that models rarely turn out exactly as shown. Models change and nothing is a guarantee.

 

[Peak]

All this great snow and SW OH is only getting about 4". Boooo

 

[Jaysus]

I like the discussion... and I also like the new, south of the Mason Dixon line prediction!!!

 

[Jaysus]

ETA: #TeamNoSnow

 

[Tom Servo]

ETA: #TeamNoSnow

I'm this way all winter, every winter.

 

[Swing 51]

I don't mind a small storm but #### having a foot plus.

 

[ClownCausedChaos2]

Does anyone have a link to one of those paint-by-number maps for the new predictions? Morons like me like to see those.

 

[James Daulton]

Just want to point out the reason I post things here is not to give a forecast. Anyone that wants a forecast can look on their phones or weather apps. I always say that what I'm posting is not to be taken verbatim and that models rarely turn out exactly as shown. Models change and nothing is a guarantee.

You just love getting us all hyped up then pulling the rug out from under us. That said, it is fun getting all hyped prior to said rug pulling. Keep it up!

 

[ClownCausedChaos2]

ETA: #TeamNoSnow

I'm this way all winter, every winter.

I'm rooting for enough to allow sledding/snowball fights/snowmen. Nothing more than that.

 

[The_Man]

Some sanity from Winter weather expert Paul Kocin

Nothing like a new model run (ecmwf) to dampen some enthusiasm. However, and a big however, you can't live and die with each forecast cycle! There are plenty more cycles to run.

So far, there has been really good agreement on the big picture. But those details! Any trends in speed and how far north/south will make or break this forecast. There will likely be an area that looks primo, at least right now. That's likely to be between DC and Philadelphia. Uncertainty increases north and south. North with the possible sharp boundary with little vs lots of snow. That's the case so far NYC and Boston. Uncertainty increases south with mixing issues...Virginia.

Looks like 1-2 feet in the max, 30 possible. Where? You tell me.

This is how these systems typically work. Some are horribly unpredictable (or parts are....) but some are relatively predictable, like this one appears to be, just like Snowmageddon in Feb 2010, one of those cases. We will see.

But it is likely that any trends in speed and north vs south will likely be key in the next few days. My thoughts

Very tough cutoff on the north to judge right now. But I feel like Baltimore is in a very sweet spot for 18" or so

 

[Swing 51]

Just want to point out the reason I post things here is not to give a forecast. Anyone that wants a forecast can look on their phones or weather apps. I always say that what I'm posting is not to be taken verbatim and that models rarely turn out exactly as shown. Models change and nothing is a guarantee.

You just love getting us all hyped up then pulling the rug out from under us. That said, it is fun getting all hyped prior to said rug pulling. Keep it up!

Quite the CYA post from the Sheik.

 

[James Daulton]

Does anyone have a link to one of those paint-by-number maps for the new predictions? Morons like me like to see those.

Any map Sheik links to is pretty much guaranteed to require either a PHD in weather or astrology to interpret.

You should be fine.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Does anyone have a link to one of those paint-by-number maps for the new predictions? Morons like me like to see those.

Euro

 

[TheIronSheik]

Some sanity from Winter weather expert Paul Kocin

Nothing like a new model run (ecmwf) to dampen some enthusiasm. However, and a big however, you can't live and die with each forecast cycle! There are plenty more cycles to run.

So far, there has been really good agreement on the big picture. But those details! Any trends in speed and how far north/south will make or break this forecast. There will likely be an area that looks primo, at least right now. That's likely to be between DC and Philadelphia. Uncertainty increases north and south. North with the possible sharp boundary with little vs lots of snow. That's the case so far NYC and Boston. Uncertainty increases south with mixing issues...Virginia.

Looks like 1-2 feet in the max, 30 possible. Where? You tell me.

This is how these systems typically work. Some are horribly unpredictable (or parts are....) but some are relatively predictable, like this one appears to be, just like Snowmageddon in Feb 2010, one of those cases. We will see.

But it is likely that any trends in speed and north vs south will likely be key in the next few days. My thoughts

Very tough cutoff on the north to judge right now. But I feel like Baltimore is in a very sweet spot for 18" or so

Yeah, this is what I've been seeing and hearing as well. Thoughts are that the Euro is probably as south as it will go while the others are nearing the northermost it'll go. Still haven't had all of the energy sampled, so no reason to panic over one model run.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Just want to point out the reason I post things here is not to give a forecast. Anyone that wants a forecast can look on their phones or weather apps. I always say that what I'm posting is not to be taken verbatim and that models rarely turn out exactly as shown. Models change and nothing is a guarantee.

You just love getting us all hyped up then pulling the rug out from under us. That said, it is fun getting all hyped prior to said rug pulling. Keep it up!

I still am not sure the rug has been pulled.

 

[ClownCausedChaos2]

Does anyone have a link to one of those paint-by-number maps for the new predictions? Morons like me like to see those.

Euro

"Euro"-lright in my book, Sheik!

Complete whiff where I am. The kids will be pissed.

 

[ClownCausedChaos2]

Does anyone have a link to one of those paint-by-number maps for the new predictions? Morons like me like to see those.

Any map Sheik links to is pretty much guaranteed to require either a PHD in weather or astrology to interpret.

You should be fine.

My PHD is in BS.

 

[Courtjester]

Any effect on Sunday's NFL game or too far North to be an issue?

 

[James Daulton]

Does anyone have a link to one of those paint-by-number maps for the new predictions? Morons like me like to see those.

Euro

"Euro"-lright in my book, Sheik!

Complete whiff where I am. The kids will be pissed.

Kind of like your pun GB?

 

[Chemical X]

water and bread update?

 

[matttyl]

Does anyone have a link to one of those paint-by-number maps for the new predictions? Morons like me like to see those.

Euro

Damn. I'm right between 2 and 3 feet. I need more beer.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Euro ensembles mean is further north.

 

[ClownCausedChaos2]

Does anyone have a link to one of those paint-by-number maps for the new predictions? Morons like me like to see those.

Euro

"Euro"-lright in my book, Sheik!Complete whiff where I am. The kids will be pissed.

Kind of like your pun GB?

It was funny and you know it.

 

[ClownCausedChaos2]

Euro ensembles mean is further north.

What the hell does this mean?

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Does anyone have a link to one of those paint-by-number maps for the new predictions? Morons like me like to see those.

Euro

Damn. I'm right between 2 and 3 feet. I need more beer.

IIRC, you're not too far from me. Aren't you on the western end of I-66?

 

[TheIronSheik]

Euro ensembles mean is further north.

What the hell does this mean?

It means don't abandon hope, all ye who enter.

 

[matttyl]

Does anyone have a link to one of those paint-by-number maps for the new predictions? Morons like me like to see those.

Euro

Damn. I'm right between 2 and 3 feet. I need more beer.

IIRC, you're not too far from me. Aren't you on the western end of I-66?

If you're in Woodstock, you and I aren't too far from one another. Stay safe with this one.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Euro ensembles mean is further north.

What the hell does this mean?

It means don't abandon hope, all ye who enter.

It puts a lot of S PA back in play for a foot or more of snow. That's a good sign. It means that we might not be trending south. If the Euro was the southernmost solution, then it leaves a lot of room for places north of VA to see significant snowfall. Again, the energy is still not onshore so no sampling has taken place. A lot of guesswork going on by the models. Can see some GIGO taking place during this stage.

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

Euro ensembles mean is further north.

What the hell does this mean?

There are different types of model runs. Deterministic model runs generate a single predicted storm path and associated results. They contain very detailed predictions that take a lot of computing power. Ensemble runs generate many different storm paths based on a range of starting values. Each run is less detailed than a deterministic run, but takes less computing power. An ensemble mean is just what it sounds like. It takes all those ensemble runs into account and gives you the midpoint prediction.

 

[ClownCausedChaos2]

Euro ensembles mean is further north.

What the hell does this mean?

There are different types of model runs. Deterministic model runs generate a single predicted storm path and associated results. They contain very detailed predictions that take a lot of computing power. Ensemble runs generate many different storm paths based on a range of starting values. Each run is less detailed than a deterministic run, but takes less computing power. An ensemble mean is just what it sounds like. It takes all those ensemble runs into account and gives you the midpoint prediction.

This sorta makes sense to me.

 

[James Daulton]

Euro ensembles mean is further north.

What the hell does this mean?

There are different types of model runs. Deterministic model runs generate a single predicted storm path and associated results. They contain very detailed predictions that take a lot of computing power. Ensemble runs generate many different storm paths based on a range of starting values. Each run is less detailed than a deterministic run, but takes less computing power. An ensemble mean is just what it sounds like. It takes all those ensemble runs into account and gives you the midpoint prediction.

This sorta makes sense to me.

Sure it does...

 

[glock]

I have family in Lynchburg, VA who appear to be in for a surprise...

 

[Mr. Ected]

Does anyone have a link to one of those paint-by-number maps for the new predictions? Morons like me like to see those.

Euro

With the tightness of the heavy stuff in that pic, it won't take much pushing it one way or another to change things tremendously!

 

[Random]

Does anyone have a link to one of those paint-by-number maps for the new predictions? Morons like me like to see those.

Euro

With the tightness of the heavy stuff in that pic, it won't take much pushing it one way or another to change things tremendously!

What kind of movement is "normal" this far out? 100-200 miles?

 

[TheIronSheik]

Does anyone have a link to one of those paint-by-number maps for the new predictions? Morons like me like to see those.

Euro

With the tightness of the heavy stuff in that pic, it won't take much pushing it one way or another to change things tremendously!

What kind of movement is "normal" this far out? 100-200 miles?

Depends on the storm. This storm has been locked in pretty good with all of the models, so nothing too major. That means, it's going to hit somewhere. But here's a good idea of who is still in the running for a big, powerful storm.

 

[PIK95]

Does the above average water temperature's make it stronger or have no effect?

 

[TheIronSheik]

Does the above average water temperature's make it stronger or have no effect?

That's one of the reasons the coast will see mixing, due to the relatively warm Atlantic Ocean it's pulling moisture from.

 

[PIK95]

Does the above average water temperature's make it stronger or have no effect?

That's one of the reasons the coast will see mixing, due to the relatively warm Atlantic Ocean it's pulling moisture from.

Right, but does it affect totals when its 100% snow?

 

[Tom Servo]

Does anyone have a link to one of those paint-by-number maps for the new predictions? Morons like me like to see those.

From Jay's Wintry Mix on FB

 

[Koya]

Stupid Mix. GIMME PURE SNOW. PURE FLUFFY WHITE YA-YO DAMMIT

- Jeep Owner

 

[Tom Servo]

From the FB that goes with the map link I posted just now:

I'm kind of running out of words to describe what could be the greatest snowstorm of all time. I told a friend a few days ago that this could be one you tell your grandkids amount. The start time from the gfs and euro are much different. Friday morning vs late Friday afternoon so that has to be nailed down. The end result however is similar. A crippling blizzard potentially with the dc area being the target area. In otherwords...no other region will do better from this storm than our own as of now. An extreme el nino that gave you a 73 degree Christmas eve where santa came in his boxers is about to unleash it's full potential on the area. If it's a bust...it will be historic so history is being made no matter what lol

 

[Tom Servo]

Oh, advice for those of you in the path of this storm.

 

[ClownCausedChaos2]

Does anyone have a link to one of those paint-by-number maps for the new predictions? Morons like me like to see those.

From Jay's Wintry Mix on FB

Those are some pretty big numbers.