Snowmageddon 2022 (2 Viewers)

[Chappy]

Sheik did you see the NAM run?!? Weather forum saying this isn't too reliable and overinflates, but this is Armageddon type ####:http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=277243

ETA: and with that final picture of the run the storm wasn't completely gone and it was still snowing in Philly, NY and Jersey.

Is that graphic actually showing that central jersey is looking at 48 inches of snow?!?

Yep. But like I said that computer run overinflates precipitation and accumulations so that's very likely not reality.

Sheik did you see the NAM run?!? Weather forum saying this isn't too reliable and overinflates, but this is Armageddon type ####:http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=277243

ETA: and with that final picture of the run the storm wasn't completely gone and it was still snowing in Philly, NY and Jersey.

Is that graphic actually showing that central jersey is looking at 48 inches of snow?!?

Yep. But like I said that computer run overinflates precipitation and accumulations so that's very likely not reality.

True, but even just using the graphic as a frame of reference, it looks like the storm center for heavy precip has shifted north and east. Is that so?

 

[Billy Bats]

Sheik did you see the NAM run?!? Weather forum saying this isn't too reliable and overinflates, but this is Armageddon type ####:http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=277243

ETA: and with that final picture of the run the storm wasn't completely gone and it was still snowing in Philly, NY and Jersey.

Is that graphic actually showing that central jersey is looking at 48 inches of snow?!?

Yep. But like I said that computer run overinflates precipitation and accumulations so that's very likely not reality.

Sheik did you see the NAM run?!? Weather forum saying this isn't too reliable and overinflates, but this is Armageddon type ####:http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=277243

ETA: and with that final picture of the run the storm wasn't completely gone and it was still snowing in Philly, NY and Jersey.

Is that graphic actually showing that central jersey is looking at 48 inches of snow?!?

Yep. But like I said that computer run overinflates precipitation and accumulations so that's very likely not reality.

True, but even just using the graphic as a frame of reference, it looks like the storm center for heavy precip has shifted north and east. Is that so?

At least on that computer run it did and first I've seen it that Far East. Now take a look at this model that just finished, the GFS now has a much warmer/mostly rain/mix event from Philly east with very low snow totals. And people wonder why meteorologists are always wrong! It's crazy. http://i.imgur.com/3RoC6g7.gif

 

[Chappy]

Sheik did you see the NAM run?!? Weather forum saying this isn't too reliable and overinflates, but this is Armageddon type ####:http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=277243

ETA: and with that final picture of the run the storm wasn't completely gone and it was still snowing in Philly, NY and Jersey.

Is that graphic actually showing that central jersey is looking at 48 inches of snow?!?

Yep. But like I said that computer run overinflates precipitation and accumulations so that's very likely not reality.

Sheik did you see the NAM run?!? Weather forum saying this isn't too reliable and overinflates, but this is Armageddon type ####:http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=277243

ETA: and with that final picture of the run the storm wasn't completely gone and it was still snowing in Philly, NY and Jersey.

Is that graphic actually showing that central jersey is looking at 48 inches of snow?!?

Yep. But like I said that computer run overinflates precipitation and accumulations so that's very likely not reality.

True, but even just using the graphic as a frame of reference, it looks like the storm center for heavy precip has shifted north and east. Is that so?

At least on that computer run it did and first I've seen it that Far East. Now take a look at this model that just finished, the GFS now has a much warmer/mostly rain/mix event from Philly east with very low snow totals. And people wonder why meteorologists are always wrong! It's crazy. http://i.imgur.com/3RoC6g7.gif

Jesus! That's now single digits for my area. Unreal! Just can't keep up with the changes.

 

[flapgreen]

Lies!

 

[Billy Bats]

And yet another run back to Philly getting crushed and central NJ with a good hit too.

http://i.imgur.com/QvEGwyz.png

It seems like they all agree on VA/DC/Baltimore areas getting slammed no matter what, it's figuring out the rain/snow line in our areas that seems to be giving troubles.

.

 

[QuizGuy66]

-QG

 

[Tom Servo]

I'll just leave this here for some levity in the face of all this SERIOUS BUSINESS:

WTVC NewsChannel 9 ‏@newschannelnine Jan 19

Also, kids? Don't DM us pretending you are some school official cancelling school. Closings don't work like that. & we're not that dumb.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

I'm having a cord of wood delivered today. It's going to be a weekend of wine and fire. I test started my brand new massively overpowered snow blower two days ago my GB gave to me when he sold his gym. This thing is a beast with an electronic ignition.

I just realized now that I'm actually giddy over the thought of this impending blizzard.

 

[Chappy]

Storm totals now predicted lower again for my area. From 8-14 inches, to 14-21 inches, back to 8-14.

 

[bushdocda]

Need more sleds.

 

[Sweet J]

Currently in Albuquerque. Flying, through Dallas, to DCA arriving Friday night (well, that's what my current itinerary says. . .). Good god.

I originally thought if I changed to a 6am flight out of ABQ, landing at dca at 11 or 12 I'd be safe. But now I'm thinking maybe I should fly back tonight.

I hate winter.

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

Took me two hours to drive six miles home tonight due to one half inch of snow and some ice. The DC area really seems ready for this big storm.

My first experience in Virginia. Grew up in New England and used to have a 60 minute commute along the Mass Pike which included some very heavy snows. If you know how to drive in it safely, it's never a big deal. So I'm officially worried about how the South handles things.

I don't think the problem was all on the drivers tonight. They didn't pretreat the roads at all. My main obstacle tonight was a bus that got stuck, blocking two lanes on 395 and backing up traffic behind it.

Roads were a complete mess last night. Snow packed over ice. Every hill was an adventure. I had two or three cars spin out (at very low speed, obviously) in front of me. You really had to stay in a lower gear and take it slow. Apparently there were motorists stuck for seven hours overnight near the Wilson Bridge.

 

[eoMMan]

Southern NJ forecast?

 

[The_Man]

Currently in Albuquerque. Flying, through Dallas, to DCA arriving Friday night (well, that's what my current itinerary says. . .). Good god.

I originally thought if I changed to a 6am flight out of ABQ, landing at dca at 11 or 12 I'd be safe. But now I'm thinking maybe I should fly back tonight.

I hate winter.

The snow won't start in DC until at least 3 p.m. on Friday.

 

[tom22406]

Snow blowers,generators,shovels all checked and are ready to go.Bring it on Jonas!!!

 

[Tom Servo]

Just got off a conference call about the storm from a First Energy perspective (West Penn Power, Jersey Central, Met-Ed, Potomac Edison). Plans are supposed to come out later today on staging crews - at least initially - in the McConnelsburg, PA area. Certainly, crews from the other FE companies such as Ohio Edison, Toledo Edison, and Cleveland Electric Illuminating will be sending crews.

 

[Random]

Just got off a conference call about the storm from a First Energy perspective (West Penn Power, Jersey Central, Met-Ed, Potomac Edison). Plans are supposed to come out later today on staging crews - at least initially - in the McConnelsburg, PA area. Certainly, crews from the other FE companies such as Ohio Edison, Toledo Edison, and Cleveland Electric Illuminating will be sending crews.

Yikes. So if this thing ends up hitting 100 miles further west than anticipated (not sure how likely that is at this point), we're going to be without power and crew to fix it.

 

[MattFancy]

Hearing that Southern MD could now see mostly rain on Saturday, can any of your guys confirm?

 

[Mr. Pickles]

Bring it on Jonas!!!

Let's go no named winter storms for now.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Took me two hours to drive six miles home tonight due to one half inch of snow and some ice. The DC area really seems ready for this big storm.

My first experience in Virginia. Grew up in New England and used to have a 60 minute commute along the Mass Pike which included some very heavy snows. If you know how to drive in it safely, it's never a big deal. So I'm officially worried about how the South handles things.

I don't think the problem was all on the drivers tonight. They didn't pretreat the roads at all. My main obstacle tonight was a bus that got stuck, blocking two lanes on 395 and backing up traffic behind it.

Roads were a complete mess last night. Snow packed over ice. Every hill was an adventure. I had two or three cars spin out (at very low speed, obviously) in front of me. You really had to stay in a lower gear and take it slow. Apparently there were motorists stuck for seven hours overnight near the Wilson Bridge.

Yup, total disaster. My wife's from upstate NY so she's got plenty of experience driving in snow and ice, and we almost crashed twice over a six block drive last night. At one point going down a slight hill the car just wouldn't stop, thankfully nobody was at the intersection at the time. Funny to see jokes on social media about DC not being able to handle an inch of snow, but it was the ice that was getting everyone. Worst driving conditions I can remember, including recent 12"+ snowstorms.

 

[Don Quixote]

Took me two hours to drive six miles home tonight due to one half inch of snow and some ice. The DC area really seems ready for this big storm.

My first experience in Virginia. Grew up in New England and used to have a 60 minute commute along the Mass Pike which included some very heavy snows. If you know how to drive in it safely, it's never a big deal. So I'm officially worried about how the South handles things.

I don't think the problem was all on the drivers tonight. They didn't pretreat the roads at all. My main obstacle tonight was a bus that got stuck, blocking two lanes on 395 and backing up traffic behind it.

Roads were a complete mess last night. Snow packed over ice. Every hill was an adventure. I had two or three cars spin out (at very low speed, obviously) in front of me. You really had to stay in a lower gear and take it slow. Apparently there were motorists stuck for seven hours overnight near the Wilson Bridge.

Yup, total disaster. My wife's from upstate NY so she's got plenty of experience driving in snow and ice, and we almost crashed twice over a six block drive last night. At one point going down a slight hill the car just wouldn't stop, thankfully nobody was at the intersection at the time. Funny to see jokes on social media about DC not being able to handle an inch of snow, but it was the ice that was getting everyone. Worst driving conditions I can remember, including recent 12"+ snowstorms.

I saw something on Twitter last night about how even the Presidential motorcade was sliding on the roads, and bumping into curbs. Definitely not on the drivers.

 

[The Goat]

I have changed the oil in my snowblower in Northeast PA. We will now be getting no snow.

You're welcome.

 

[matttyl]

So I started my prepping last night - considering multiple models show 24+ inches in my area. I found the shovels, called a neighbor with a skid loader to find out how much it would be to clear my driveway ($150?!?!?!Juan ), and lugged my generator up my back yard hill from my shed to my back deck. That last one was a huge pain in the butt, as this thing is heavy as you know what, especially when it has a full tank of fuel. I finally got it up on the deck and placed it where I wanted it. I knew after doing all this, all I'd really accomplished is guaranteeing that we won't lose power at all during this event.

I then wanted to be sure it didn't have any issues, so I attempted to start it up. Turned the key, pulled the choke, opened the fuel line, and gave it a pull on the pull start. Normally she starts right up. Nothing. Tried again, still nothing. 50 more pulls with the choke in different positions - nothing. I pulled the spark plug, and confirmed it was firing when pulling on the pull start. Shocked myself . Gave up on it thinking I had flooded it. Tried again this morning, and on the third pull, the rope of the pull start snapped. I've now guaranteed that the entire electrical grid of the mid Atlantic will be down by 8 PM Friday. Sorry guys.

 

[The Goat]

So I started my prepping last night - considering multiple models show 24+ inches in my area. I found the shovels, called a neighbor with a skid loader to find out how much it would be to clear my driveway ($150?!?!?!Juan ), and lugged my generator up my back yard hill from my shed to my back deck. That last one was a huge pain in the butt, as this thing is heavy as you know what, especially when it has a full tank of fuel. I finally got it up on the deck and placed it where I wanted it. I knew after doing all this, all I'd really accomplished is guaranteeing that we won't lose power at all during this event.

I then wanted to be sure it didn't have any issues, so I attempted to start it up. Turned the key, pulled the choke, opened the fuel line, and gave it a pull on the pull start. Normally she starts right up. Nothing. Tried again, still nothing. 50 more pulls with the choke in different positions - nothing. I pulled the spark plug, and confirmed it was firing when pulling on the pull start. Shocked myself . Gave up on it thinking I had flooded it. Tried again this morning, and on the third pull, the rope of the pull start snapped. I've now guaranteed that the entire electrical grid of the mid Atlantic will be down by 8 PM Friday. Sorry guys.

Change the oil!

 

[matttyl]

So I started my prepping last night - considering multiple models show 24+ inches in my area. I found the shovels, called a neighbor with a skid loader to find out how much it would be to clear my driveway ($150?!?!?!Juan ), and lugged my generator up my back yard hill from my shed to my back deck. That last one was a huge pain in the butt, as this thing is heavy as you know what, especially when it has a full tank of fuel. I finally got it up on the deck and placed it where I wanted it. I knew after doing all this, all I'd really accomplished is guaranteeing that we won't lose power at all during this event.

I then wanted to be sure it didn't have any issues, so I attempted to start it up. Turned the key, pulled the choke, opened the fuel line, and gave it a pull on the pull start. Normally she starts right up. Nothing. Tried again, still nothing. 50 more pulls with the choke in different positions - nothing. I pulled the spark plug, and confirmed it was firing when pulling on the pull start. Shocked myself . Gave up on it thinking I had flooded it. Tried again this morning, and on the third pull, the rope of the pull start snapped. I've now guaranteed that the entire electrical grid of the mid Atlantic will be down by 8 PM Friday. Sorry guys.

Change the oil!

Likely will, to a different weight better suited for the cold.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Local guy over here in the Valley who does amateur weathering posted this:

https://www.facebook.com/Vaweather-181453005397871/

 

[matttyl]

Local guy over here in the Valley who does amateur weathering posted this:

https://www.facebook.com/Vaweather-181453005397871/

Looks like we're getting slammed GB.

 

[tom22406]

So I started my prepping last night - considering multiple models show 24+ inches in my area. I found the shovels, called a neighbor with a skid loader to find out how much it would be to clear my driveway ($150?!?!?!Juan ), and lugged my generator up my back yard hill from my shed to my back deck. That last one was a huge pain in the butt, as this thing is heavy as you know what, especially when it has a full tank of fuel. I finally got it up on the deck and placed it where I wanted it. I knew after doing all this, all I'd really accomplished is guaranteeing that we won't lose power at all during this event.

I then wanted to be sure it didn't have any issues, so I attempted to start it up. Turned the key, pulled the choke, opened the fuel line, and gave it a pull on the pull start. Normally she starts right up. Nothing. Tried again, still nothing. 50 more pulls with the choke in different positions - nothing. I pulled the spark plug, and confirmed it was firing when pulling on the pull start. Shocked myself . Gave up on it thinking I had flooded it. Tried again this morning, and on the third pull, the rope of the pull start snapped. I've now guaranteed that the entire electrical grid of the mid Atlantic will be down by 8 PM Friday. Sorry guys.

Change the oil!

Likely will, to a different weight better suited for the cold.

Did you try a little spray of starting fluid?

 

[JaxBill]

I think out of sympathy I'll make French Toast Saturday morning.

 

[Peak]

Any chance this thing can move north a little bit so Cincinnati gets more than ~4"? Feel like we're missing out on the fun.

 

[MikeIke]

Any chance this thing can move north a little bit so Cincinnati gets more than ~4"? Feel like we're missing out on the fun.

Keep moving northwest! I'm still only looking at two inches in Columbus.

 

[TheIronSheik]

The latest NAM holds strong with its totals. And the thing to remember with the NAM is that it is a short range model. So it's just starting to enter its wheelhouse range. It wouldn't surprise me if those totals are the new trend.

 

[tom22406]

Fox 5 D.C. put out this a little while ago-https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xlf1/v/t1.0-9/10407574_803036353159458_4490442805850809866_n.jpg?oh=43b1278846d2608d5e3304cec254dff4&oe=574873E7

 

[RUSF18]

The potential flooding is a big issue for the Jersey shore all the way up to where I am in Hoboken. A lot of those shore towns have barely recovered, if at all, from Sandy and there are people who have just recently gotten their houses rebuilt, again if at all. Do everyone a favor and think of those people as you cheer for your 2 feet of snow, you savages.

 

[Billy Bats]

The latest NAM holds strong with its totals. And the thing to remember with the NAM is that it is a short range model. So it's just starting to enter its wheelhouse range. It wouldn't surprise me if those totals are the new trend.

Is there a lot of mixing still included for the Philly area or was that just an anomaly last night?

 

[TheIronSheik]

The potential flooding is a big issue for the Jersey shore all the way up to where I am in Hoboken. A lot of those shore towns have barely recovered, if at all, from Sandy and there are people who have just recently gotten their houses rebuilt, again if at all. Do everyone a favor and think of those people as you cheer for your 2 feet of snow, you savages.

I understand what you're saying, but cheering for snow has no effect on whether it hits or doesn't.

 

[PIK95]

Are any coastal areas getting evacuated? It's awfully cold to be dealing with a Sandy storm surge that someone mentioned could happen.

 

[TheIronSheik]

The latest NAM holds strong with its totals. And the thing to remember with the NAM is that it is a short range model. So it's just starting to enter its wheelhouse range. It wouldn't surprise me if those totals are the new trend.

Is there a lot of mixing still included for the Philly area or was that just an anomaly last night?

I didn't notice much mixing for the Philly area, but to be honest, I wasn't really looking for it. I know they've been saying that mixing shouldn't really be an issue for Philly and west. I think the real concern is NJ near the shore. I've also heard a couple mets say that even with mixing, the snow totals will still be huge in those areas and that it's not a huge concern.

 

[PIK95]

Concern for Jersey near the shore? Is that snow concerns or flooding?

 

[JMon348]

Last night was a nightmare. Picked up my wife in Arlington because her car was sliding everywhere, took us 4 hours to get to Springfield. Don't know if they were caught off guard, but the roads were a disaster.

 

[tom22406]

Last night was a nightmare. Picked up my wife in Arlington because her car was sliding everywhere, took us 4 hours to get to Springfield. Don't know if they were caught off guard, but the roads were a disaster.

The response I have heard is that they knew the snow was coming last night but were more preparing for the bigger event which really is no excuse IMO.They had almost 8 hours to get something down and didn't and thus it was nothing short of a nightmare for all involved.

 

[Billy Bats]

The latest NAM holds strong with its totals. And the thing to remember with the NAM is that it is a short range model. So it's just starting to enter its wheelhouse range. It wouldn't surprise me if those totals are the new trend.

Is there a lot of mixing still included for the Philly area or was that just an anomaly last night?

I didn't notice much mixing for the Philly area, but to be honest, I wasn't really looking for it. I know they've been saying that mixing shouldn't really be an issue for Philly and west. I think the real concern is NJ near the shore. I've also heard a couple mets say that even with mixing, the snow totals will still be huge in those areas and that it's not a huge concern.

Cool. I watched the late GFS run last night it had a lot of changeover and their Philly totals were way down:

http://i.imgur.com/3RoC6g7.gif

 

[RUSF18]

The potential flooding is a big issue for the Jersey shore all the way up to where I am in Hoboken. A lot of those shore towns have barely recovered, if at all, from Sandy and there are people who have just recently gotten their houses rebuilt, again if at all. Do everyone a favor and think of those people as you cheer for your 2 feet of snow, you savages.

I understand what you're saying, but cheering for snow has no effect on whether it hits or doesn't.

And I've heard this response before. Cheering for sports teams doesn't have an effect on whether they win or not, and yet people do. There's a reason they do.

So let's play this out...you're cheering for a bunch of snow, for what exactly? When it materializes, what do you do? Do you get frustrated by all the shoveling, being forced inside, not being able to park on the street? Or do you get some level of enjoyment out of it?

 

[TobiasFunke]

Nobody's missing out on any fun here, and I'm not sure why anyone would be cheering for this particular storm. It's gonna suck. In addition to the obvious timing thing- storm starts at the absolute worst time for days off from school and work- they're forecasting 30-40 MPH winds on Saturday. So we're looking at widespread power outrages. And it's also hard to send the kids out to play in the snow in those kind of conditions. Not really looking like we're gonna get a Norman Rockwell type scene around here.

 

[TheIronSheik]

The potential flooding is a big issue for the Jersey shore all the way up to where I am in Hoboken. A lot of those shore towns have barely recovered, if at all, from Sandy and there are people who have just recently gotten their houses rebuilt, again if at all. Do everyone a favor and think of those people as you cheer for your 2 feet of snow, you savages.

I understand what you're saying, but cheering for snow has no effect on whether it hits or doesn't.

And I've heard this response before. Cheering for sports teams doesn't have an effect on whether they win or not, and yet people do. There's a reason they do.

So let's play this out...you're cheering for a bunch of snow, for what exactly? When it materializes, what do you do? Do you get frustrated by all the shoveling, being forced inside, not being able to park on the street? Or do you get some level of enjoyment out of it?

OK. Then consider me cheering for people to die horrible deaths and lose their property. Bring on the snow!

 

[The Goat]

The potential flooding is a big issue for the Jersey shore all the way up to where I am in Hoboken. A lot of those shore towns have barely recovered, if at all, from Sandy and there are people who have just recently gotten their houses rebuilt, again if at all. Do everyone a favor and think of those people as you cheer for your 2 feet of snow, you savages.

I understand what you're saying, but cheering for snow has no effect on whether it hits or doesn't.

And I've heard this response before. Cheering for sports teams doesn't have an effect on whether they win or not, and yet people do. There's a reason they do.

So let's play this out...you're cheering for a bunch of snow, for what exactly? When it materializes, what do you do? Do you get frustrated by all the shoveling, being forced inside, not being able to park on the street? Or do you get some level of enjoyment out of it?

Well, I'm convinced. If my kids want to build a snowman this weekend, I'm going to sit them down and have a stern conversation with them about how inconsiderate they are for not thinking of the people affected by Sandy.

 

[TheIronSheik]

The latest NAM holds strong with its totals. And the thing to remember with the NAM is that it is a short range model. So it's just starting to enter its wheelhouse range. It wouldn't surprise me if those totals are the new trend.

Is there a lot of mixing still included for the Philly area or was that just an anomaly last night?

I didn't notice much mixing for the Philly area, but to be honest, I wasn't really looking for it. I know they've been saying that mixing shouldn't really be an issue for Philly and west. I think the real concern is NJ near the shore. I've also heard a couple mets say that even with mixing, the snow totals will still be huge in those areas and that it's not a huge concern.

Cool. I watched the late GFS run last night it had a lot of changeover and their Philly totals were way down:

http://i.imgur.com/3RoC6g7.gif

From what I've seen, the general thought is that the global models are having issues with the storm. The NAM seems to have gotten in under control. The test will be when the Euro runs later today as well as the GFS. See if they correct to the NAM or they continue their trend. But for the most part, the mets seem to be leaning more in line with the NAM at this point.

 

[Chappy]

The potential flooding is a big issue for the Jersey shore all the way up to where I am in Hoboken. A lot of those shore towns have barely recovered, if at all, from Sandy and there are people who have just recently gotten their houses rebuilt, again if at all. Do everyone a favor and think of those people as you cheer for your 2 feet of snow, you savages.

I understand what you're saying, but cheering for snow has no effect on whether it hits or doesn't.

And I've heard this response before. Cheering for sports teams doesn't have an effect on whether they win or not, and yet people do. There's a reason they do.So let's play this out...you're cheering for a bunch of snow, for what exactly? When it materializes, what do you do? Do you get frustrated by all the shoveling, being forced inside, not being able to park on the street? Or do you get some level of enjoyment out of it?

Because people enjoy the sight of snow, going out and sledding or building a snowman with their family. I for one, very much look forward to a good storm and that doesn't mean that I want people, who chose to live in areas of risk, to suffer the consequences related to severe weather. I feel for them but am still entitled to enjoy a solid snowstorm.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

Sheik, give me some timing of when its gonna hit the philly area on Friday night.

 

[MattFancy]

The latest NAM holds strong with its totals. And the thing to remember with the NAM is that it is a short range model. So it's just starting to enter its wheelhouse range. It wouldn't surprise me if those totals are the new trend.

What does the latest NAM look like for Southern MD? Lots of differing ranges this morning. Seen anywhere from 1" to 18".