Snowmageddon 2022 (8 Viewers)

[geewill]

Looks like mostly freezing rain for Charlotte

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Looks like mostly freezing rain for Charlotte

I've been in Charlotte in an ice storm before, though that was 15-20 years ago. Have they upgraded their winter weather equipment? Because then, it was dudes in pick up trucks throwing sand out of the bed onto the road.

 

[matttyl]

From the NWS, Godspeed to all ya'll Virginians:

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=277610

Crazy how the "kill zone" is really between 95 and 81. Nice knowing all of you....

That "0" in the "24-30", center of Shenandoah County is like a bullseye right over my house.

Ah, Woodstock.....

 

[Mr. Ected]

Heard this today on The Tony Kornheiser show (click on the Listen link for the song). For those that don't listen, fans of the show send in 'jingles' where they make parodies of songs like Weird Al relating to current events, show topics, or Tony in general. This came less than 24 hours after DC crisis with snow last nite.

 

[PIK95]

Is anyone here on the NJ shore? We're you there in 1992?

Yes and yes for my parents. I was 7 in 92 so I don't remember it much.

They say this may have similar flooding. I guess it was pretty bad.

 

[Otis]

Hmm, might have to change what I just said.

The GFS gives the entire DC/Balt metro 28"+

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-1746-0-39368000-1453391459.gif

This is insanity. Would truly be a once in a lifetime event if it verifies. Comparable to the famous Washington-Jefferson snow, when both of those guys wrote in their diaries about a 3-foot snowstorm.

This is so annoying. Every 12 hours a different map comes out with a dramatically different NYC forecast. This looks like 3-6 inches. Another one a few hours earlier looked like a foot or more.

 

[Otis]

Shiek, help me understand what's happening in NYC/Long Island. If you look at the center of the storm and chart a course, it looks like it is coming directly at us. Then you look at the totals and they're way lower than in other parts of the centerline of the storm track. Why aren't we getting the same precipitation and storm, being that we are dead center? Is it because we are near the coast, and so the expectations is that the temperature will be warmer for more of the snow period, and so we're getting the same precipitation amounts but a whole lot less of it will be snow? Something else??

It's all very confusing...

 

[The Goat]

One of my favorite quotes is from Justified: "If you run into an ####### in the morning, you ran into an #######. But if you run into #######s all day, you're the #######."

The responses here indicate that I'm clearly the #######, and I'm going to do the un-internet-like thing and admit that. Clearly my perspective was off and something there touched a nerve.

My apologies gents.

Well, in honor of this, I freely admit I'm also an #####...and now I'm going to go buy bourbon.

 

[matttyl]

Shiek, help me understand what's happening in NYC/Long Island. If you look at the center of the storm and chart a course, it looks like it is coming directly at us. Then you look at the totals and they're way lower than in other parts of the centerline of the storm track. Why aren't we getting the same precipitation and storm, being that we are dead center? Is it because we are near the coast, and so the expectations is that the temperature will be warmer for more of the snow period, and so we're getting the same precipitation amounts but a whole lot less of it will be snow? Something else??

It's all very confusing...

I may be totally wrong and this, and don't mean to answer for Shiek - but this storm is one where a few different ingredients are all coming together over the next 24-48 hours from different directions. All of those things will be mixing perfectly in the DC area, but by the time the storm mass is over NYC, some of those ingredients will be gone.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

From the NWS, Godspeed to all ya'll Virginians:http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=277610

Crazy how the "kill zone" is really between 95 and 81. Nice knowing all of you....

That "0" in the "24-30", center of Shenandoah County is like a bullseye right over my house.

Ah, Woodstock.....

The OTHER Woodstock, or so the signs here say. Cool place, though - I love it

 

[Franknbeans]

Seriously FBG'ers, stay safe.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

I can't wait for Jersey to flood and peoples lives to be ruined !!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Steve Tasker]

I feel like I am going to end up with blizzard envy.

You say that, but after having gone through 2 last year (or was it 2 years ago?)...I can say that it'll be awhile until I want another one of those. I did make a shot video for GMTAN while sitting on my porch in my underwear and snow hat, though. Wonder where that went.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

Shiek, help me understand what's happening in NYC/Long Island. If you look at the center of the storm and chart a course, it looks like it is coming directly at us. Then you look at the totals and they're way lower than in other parts of the centerline of the storm track. Why aren't we getting the same precipitation and storm, being that we are dead center? Is it because we are near the coast, and so the expectations is that the temperature will be warmer for more of the snow period, and so we're getting the same precipitation amounts but a whole lot less of it will be snow? Something else??

It's all very confusing...

Don't be Jelly!

 

[TheIronSheik]

One of my favorite quotes is from Justified: "If you run into an ####### in the morning, you ran into an #######. But if you run into #######s all day, you're the #######."

The responses here indicate that I'm clearly the #######, and I'm going to do the un-internet-like thing and admit that. Clearly my perspective was off and something there touched a nerve.

My apologies gents.

It's all good. Plus, I get to keep my birthday wish for something useful now.

 

[James Daulton]

WTF? Baltimore County schools were just closed for tomorrow. It won't even start snowing before the damn school day ends!

 

[PIK95]

Poor sheik. We are probably bugging him. NYC is an impossible forcast on this one. I'll say 1-17 inches depending on temp, track, and dry air.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Shiek, help me understand what's happening in NYC/Long Island. If you look at the center of the storm and chart a course, it looks like it is coming directly at us. Then you look at the totals and they're way lower than in other parts of the centerline of the storm track. Why aren't we getting the same precipitation and storm, being that we are dead center? Is it because we are near the coast, and so the expectations is that the temperature will be warmer for more of the snow period, and so we're getting the same precipitation amounts but a whole lot less of it will be snow? Something else??

It's all very confusing...

A lot of the maps you're probably seeing are global maps, like the Euro and the GFS. These models are great for forecasting long term, but aren't great at specifics of short term. For short term, things like the NAM are great. They are used to see certain features that strong storms, like summer thunderstorms, have. They can model out the specific details much better. That's why the cutoff for the global model maps seem to not hit S PA or higher very hard. But the truth is, those areas will see heavy snow due to banding and convection. The same attributes that summer thunderstorms have, hence why we could see thundersnow. When that convection occurs, snowfall rates will be very high. The NAM is taking that into account.

As for a direct hit on NYC, it actually won't be. As this storm moves up the coast, it will run into a very large high pressure system sitting over New England. This will cause the storm to stall out over the mid atlantic. This is why the storm is going to last 24 to 36 hours. The only way for it to escape will be out to the east, eventually. This is called blocking. For the past 4 years, we have had no blocking in place. That's why every storm we had was either a bust or a boom for just certain areas. They were thread the needle type storms were multiple things needed to happen.

This is a very basic explanation in laymen terms. Hopefully it helps in the understanding.

 

[Koya]

Shiek, help me understand what's happening in NYC/Long Island. If you look at the center of the storm and chart a course, it looks like it is coming directly at us. Then you look at the totals and they're way lower than in other parts of the centerline of the storm track. Why aren't we getting the same precipitation and storm, being that we are dead center? Is it because we are near the coast, and so the expectations is that the temperature will be warmer for more of the snow period, and so we're getting the same precipitation amounts but a whole lot less of it will be snow? Something else??

It's all very confusing...

I may be totally wrong and this, and don't mean to answer for Shiek - but this storm is one where a few different ingredients are all coming together over the next 24-48 hours from different directions. All of those things will be mixing perfectly in the DC area, but by the time the storm mass is over NYC, some of those ingredients will be gone.

NYC and the immediate area are often tough for Nor' Easters. Think about it, NYC is at the intersection of the East facings shores down to FLA and Long Island/NE's South facing shore. The waters to the south have more warmth, and energy, and when you have cold from the West's inland areas collide with warmer air and a ton of moister, the crux point of those shores becomes a line of demarcation between snow and rain. Been that way my whole life, here.

A few dozen miles change in a storm track can literally mean the difference between 4 and 20 inches, or an all rain vs all snow event. If the track is set right then Eastern Long Island gets the effects of the water while someplace on Long Island into the City its becomes snow. From NYC to 25 miles out (not far) on the South Shore could mean inches of snow for the former, rain for the latter.

 

[Billy Bats]

Hmm, might have to change what I just said.

The GFS gives the entire DC/Balt metro 28"+

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-1746-0-39368000-1453391459.gif

This is insanity. Would truly be a once in a lifetime event if it verifies. Comparable to the famous Washington-Jefferson snow, when both of those guys wrote in their diaries about a 3-foot snowstorm.

This is so annoying. Every 12 hours a different map comes out with a dramatically different NYC forecast. This looks like 3-6 inches. Another one a few hours earlier looked like a foot or more.

Annnnnd you're back in the ####, Oats:

The latest NAM

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=277725

 

[matttyl]

Sheik, any big timing, location, or amount changes in today's forecasts for those under the MD?PA line?

 

[TheIronSheik]

Sheik, any big timing, location, or amount changes in today's forecasts for those under the MD?PA line?

Don't think so.

 

[matttyl]

Hmm, might have to change what I just said.

The GFS gives the entire DC/Balt metro 28"+

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-1746-0-39368000-1453391459.gif

This is insanity. Would truly be a once in a lifetime event if it verifies. Comparable to the famous Washington-Jefferson snow, when both of those guys wrote in their diaries about a 3-foot snowstorm.

This is so annoying. Every 12 hours a different map comes out with a dramatically different NYC forecast. This looks like 3-6 inches. Another one a few hours earlier looked like a foot or more.

Annnnnd you're back in the ####, Oats:

The latest NAM

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=277725

Looks like I'm right in the eye of the storm again.

So a bunch of cars in the town lot today had their wipers up as if this thing was going to start during the work day today. SMH.

 

[Koya]

Hmm, might have to change what I just said.

The GFS gives the entire DC/Balt metro 28"+

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-1746-0-39368000-1453391459.gif

This is insanity. Would truly be a once in a lifetime event if it verifies. Comparable to the famous Washington-Jefferson snow, when both of those guys wrote in their diaries about a 3-foot snowstorm.

This is so annoying. Every 12 hours a different map comes out with a dramatically different NYC forecast. This looks like 3-6 inches. Another one a few hours earlier looked like a foot or more.

Annnnnd you're back in the ####, Oats:

The latest NAM

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=277725

Now THAT'S what I'm talkin about.

More than two feet gets messy forever, but 20 inches or so, perfect. Good Jeepin' (even without a lift)

 

[Koya]

I love how everyone is stocking up on the "essentials" as if we won't be able to get out of our homes for weeks on end.

For one, almost every household owns a ####### 4WD usually SUV nowadays. Second, that gas station place and 7-11 AIN'T CLOSING. If they stayed open during sandy they are staying open here.

Finally, you get hungry? Order chinese.

#### the mail service, they will deliver in ANYthing. Usually in a 1979 rear wheel drive Datsun, at that.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Hmm, might have to change what I just said.

The GFS gives the entire DC/Balt metro 28"+

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-1746-0-39368000-1453391459.gif

This is insanity. Would truly be a once in a lifetime event if it verifies. Comparable to the famous Washington-Jefferson snow, when both of those guys wrote in their diaries about a 3-foot snowstorm.

This is so annoying. Every 12 hours a different map comes out with a dramatically different NYC forecast. This looks like 3-6 inches. Another one a few hours earlier looked like a foot or more.

Annnnnd you're back in the ####, Oats:

The latest NAMhttp://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=277725

Sweet Jesus. Does that say 43.6 in JEFFERSON CO, WV (near Harper's Ferry for you outlanders)?

 

[matttyl]

Finally, you get hungry? Order chinese.

No one delivers to my place even in good weather, much less crappy weather. Given there is quite a hill to get up to my house, we're planning on being in the house from midday Friday till possibly Tuesday.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Can anyone tell me when businesses in North Jersey will start shutting down? Today? Tomorrow? Not until Saturday? Once that happens, I can pretty much kick ####ing back for the rest of the day.

NORTHERN NEW JERSEY

Timing: The first snowflakes are expected to start falling about 6 a.m. Saturday, and the snow is expected to become moderate to heavy fairly quickly, according to the weather service. Snow will continue throughout the day on Saturday and come to an end by Sunday afternoon.

Snowfall projection: 8 to 12 inches in Warren, Sussex and Morris counties, and also 8 to 12 inches in Bergen, Passaic, Essex, Hudson and Union counties. Essex, Hudson and Union counties are now under a blizzard watch, along with New York City, Staten Island and Long Island.

Winds: Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected during most of the day on Saturday in areas further west, with gusts up to 30 mph. In the areas under the blizzard watch, sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph are possible, and gusts could reach as high as 50 mph.

Threats: Heavy accumulation of snow on roads, dangerous driving conditions —especially in the blizzard watch area — and possible power outages.

Great. So I'll have them breaking my #### cojones all day tomorrow. I hope they close the damn building on Monday.

 

[matttyl]

Hmm, might have to change what I just said.

The GFS gives the entire DC/Balt metro 28"+

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-1746-0-39368000-1453391459.gif

This is insanity. Would truly be a once in a lifetime event if it verifies. Comparable to the famous Washington-Jefferson snow, when both of those guys wrote in their diaries about a 3-foot snowstorm.

This is so annoying. Every 12 hours a different map comes out with a dramatically different NYC forecast. This looks like 3-6 inches. Another one a few hours earlier looked like a foot or more.

Annnnnd you're back in the ####, Oats:

The latest NAMhttp://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=277725

Sweet Jesus. Does that say 43.6 in JEFFERSON CO, WV (near Harper's Ferry for you outlanders)?

I think it's talking about the high mark on that map, roughly Berryville VA.

 

[Nick Vermeil]

I love how everyone is stocking up on the "essentials" as if we won't be able to get out of our homes for weeks on end.

For one, almost every household owns a ####### 4WD usually SUV nowadays. Second, that gas station place and 7-11 AIN'T CLOSING. If they stayed open during sandy they are staying open here.

Finally, you get hungry? Order chinese.

#### the mail service, they will deliver in ANYthing. Usually in a 1979 rear wheel drive Datsun, at that.

I just left Home Depot in Bed Stuy and people are going nuts. A guy that has to be a bodega owner bought ALL remaining snow shovels. About 50. What a doosh.

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

I can't wait for Jersey to flood and peoples lives to be ruined !!!!!!!!!!!!

No worries. We will just build new 10 million dollar beach houses.

 

[TobiasFunke]

I love how everyone is stocking up on the "essentials" as if we won't be able to get out of our homes for weeks on end.

For one, almost every household owns a ####### 4WD usually SUV nowadays. Second, that gas station place and 7-11 AIN'T CLOSING. If they stayed open during sandy they are staying open here.

Finally, you get hungry? Order chinese.

#### the mail service, they will deliver in ANYthing. Usually in a 1979 rear wheel drive Datsun, at that.

I used to be like this. Then I had kids. Now I realize that the prospect of going even 4-5 days without a healthy supply of milk, juice, chicken nuggets and diapers/wipes is a twisted hell that even Dante could not imagine.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Hmm, might have to change what I just said.

The GFS gives the entire DC/Balt metro 28"+

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-1746-0-39368000-1453391459.gif

This is insanity. Would truly be a once in a lifetime event if it verifies. Comparable to the famous Washington-Jefferson snow, when both of those guys wrote in their diaries about a 3-foot snowstorm.

This is so annoying. Every 12 hours a different map comes out with a dramatically different NYC forecast. This looks like 3-6 inches. Another one a few hours earlier looked like a foot or more.

Annnnnd you're back in the ####, Oats:

The latest NAMhttp://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=277725

Sweet Jesus. Does that say 43.6 in JEFFERSON CO, WV (near Harper's Ferry for you outlanders)?

I think it's talking about the high mark on that map, roughly Berryville VA.

Yeah, the "43.6" is offset and placed over WV - worded badly on my part.

 

[Koya]

I love how everyone is stocking up on the "essentials" as if we won't be able to get out of our homes for weeks on end.

For one, almost every household owns a ####### 4WD usually SUV nowadays. Second, that gas station place and 7-11 AIN'T CLOSING. If they stayed open during sandy they are staying open here.

Finally, you get hungry? Order chinese.

#### the mail service, they will deliver in ANYthing. Usually in a 1979 rear wheel drive Datsun, at that.

I just left Home Depot in Bed Stuy and people are going nuts. A guy that has to be a bodega owner bought ALL remaining snow shovels. About 50. What a doosh.

As if Home Depot is not bad enough in the burbs, I can only image the horrors that must be seen at Home Depot in Bed Stuy.

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

Can anyone tell me when businesses in North Jersey will start shutting down? Today? Tomorrow? Not until Saturday? Once that happens, I can pretty much kick ####ing back for the rest of the day.

NORTHERN NEW JERSEY

Timing: The first snowflakes are expected to start falling about 6 a.m. Saturday, and the snow is expected to become moderate to heavy fairly quickly, according to the weather service. Snow will continue throughout the day on Saturday and come to an end by Sunday afternoon.

Snowfall projection: 8 to 12 inches in Warren, Sussex and Morris counties, and also 8 to 12 inches in Bergen, Passaic, Essex, Hudson and Union counties. Essex, Hudson and Union counties are now under a blizzard watch, along with New York City, Staten Island and Long Island.

Winds: Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected during most of the day on Saturday in areas further west, with gusts up to 30 mph. In the areas under the blizzard watch, sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph are possible, and gusts could reach as high as 50 mph.

Threats: Heavy accumulation of snow on roads, dangerous driving conditions —especially in the blizzard watch area — and possible power outages.

Great. So I'll have them breaking my #### cojones all day tomorrow. I hope they close the damn building on Monday.

EG you back in NJ?

 

[Nick Vermeil]

I love how everyone is stocking up on the "essentials" as if we won't be able to get out of our homes for weeks on end.

For one, almost every household owns a ####### 4WD usually SUV nowadays. Second, that gas station place and 7-11 AIN'T CLOSING. If they stayed open during sandy they are staying open here.

Finally, you get hungry? Order chinese.

#### the mail service, they will deliver in ANYthing. Usually in a 1979 rear wheel drive Datsun, at that.

I just left Home Depot in Bed Stuy and people are going nuts. A guy that has to be a bodega owner bought ALL remaining snow shovels. About 50. What a doosh.

As if Home Depot is not bad enough in the burbs, I can only image the horrors that must be seen at Home Depot in Bed Stuy.

It really is the worst Home Depot in the country. But it's a known commodity. So it's actually nice to have close by.

 

[grateful zed]

it looks like the mid atlantic is going to be whiter than the oscars.

 

[TheIronSheik]

I think I said it here earlier but I'm not sure with how many different places I've said it today, but my thoughts are that we'll something in between the global models and the NAM. I think the NWS has it pretty good. Plan for close to a foot, give or take 2 inches. But the potential is there for 2+ feet if you're lucky/unlucky enough to see the heavy banding over your house.

Remember that blizzard conditions have nothing to do with falling snow! It is about visibility. Do not go out if you don't need to come Saturday. And be aware that you can still be struck by lightning even during a snow storm.

Timing for my area will probably be around 8pm or later. Still not locked down on that yet.

 

[TheIronSheik]

GFS just moved in line with the NAM. That's interesting.

 

[Gamma1210]

Is anyone here on the NJ shore? We're you there in 1992?

Yes and yes for my parents. I was 7 in 92 so I don't remember it much.

They say this may have similar flooding. I guess it was pretty bad.

Yeah I was young but I know my Dad had to park all the way at the top of the street and walk through waste high freezing water in is work clothes. Then overnight he woke up to the washing machine short circuiting and walking its way around the garage. If its as bad as that there will be serious issues on the shore especially with the whole area not fully recovered from Sandy.

 

[Chappy]

it looks like the mid atlantic is going to be whiter than the oscars.

LoL, so wrong but so right!

 

[Koya]

it looks like the mid atlantic is going to be whiter than the oscars.

LoL, so wrong but so right!

NY's way ahead of yoos foos. NY Post.

 

[The_Man]

Smart guys I know say to throw that run of the NAM out. It went straight north and buried NYC in a way that's not going to happen.

GFS is amazing, but also overdone:

http://i.imgur.com/KLkv8Q6.gif

Still, probably more accurate with NYC for 4-8" maybe?

Don't really know. It's just about 24 hours away from DC/Baltimore now. Can't wait. Gonna get home and get drinking. Plus I just bought a new bottle of Jameson's for the Irish Coffee I will be drinking all day long Saturday. From about 11 p.m. tomorrow until daybreak might be the heaviest snowfall rates I'll ever see in my life. Can't wait.

Pro tip for this kind of snow: Spray some WD-40 on your snow shovel blade. It will keep the big wet chunks from sticking.

 

[Koya]

So, we have more clarity.

4-24 inches for NY. <_<

 

[grateful zed]

it looks like the mid atlantic is going to be whiter than the oscars.

LoL, so wrong but so right!

NY's way ahead of yoos foos. NY Post.

were you the kid who ratted everyone out in grade school?

 

[Uruk-Hai]

My intention is to shovel every hour or two (see? I'm already waffling) during waking hours, then up every 3 or 4 hours during sleep time. I can keep up with my sidewalk and driveway, I think, but - the blessing and curse both of living on the same street as a hospital - the snow plows come through so often, they'll block my driveway with that hard-assed #### that's hard to shovel. During a normal, decent-sized snowfall they are coming through every 15 minutes. I'm just imagining a continuous conga line of trucks and I'll have a 14 foot ice-drift blocking me in.

Food - check

Booze - check

Tobacco - check

Genny-that-should-auto-start-when-power-goes-out - dunno

 

[grateful zed]

Food - check

Booze - check

Tobacco - check

latest issue of playboy?

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Food - check

Booze - check

Tobacco - check

latest issue of playboy?

Internet - check

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Oh, to piggy-back on The_Man's note about WD40....if you're out there in rubber boots, spray it on them, too

 

[The_Man]

Paul Kocin with the NWS storm forecast discussion:

FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STORM HEADSNORTHEASTWARD WITH LOW PRESSURE REACHING JUST EAST OF THE NORTHCAROLINA VIRGINIA COAST.  IT THEN MOVES VERY SLOWLY EASTNORTHEASTWARD WHILE ANOTHER CENTER FORMS OFFSHORE. THE STORMBECOMES A FULL FLEDGED SNOWSTORM/BLIZZARD FROM EASTERN KENTUCKYACROSS WEST VIRGINIA/VIRGINIA/MARYLAND/DC/SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIAAND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN DELAWARE.  THEREIS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSSNORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA/NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND DC AND MARYLAND WITHMODERATE CHANCES FOR A FOOT OR GREATER ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERNPENNSYLVANIA INTO THE PHILADELPHIA REGION.  TOTAL SNOWFALL COULDAPPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 2 FEET IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERNAND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND. THE LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENTAND DEVELOPING LONG FETCH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RESULT INHIGH WINDS AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ESPECIALLYFROM THE VIRGINIA COAST NORTH INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO BE CHARACTERIZEDBY A VERY SHARP GRADIENT OF LITTLE VS HEAVY SNOW AND WILL BELOCATED OVER CENTRAL OHIO/NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA/SOUTHEAST NEW YORKAND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SIGNIFICANT SNOW EXCEEDING 4 INCHES ISLIKELY TO MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS NEW YORK CITY BY SATURDAYEVENING. THE LOCATION OF THIS EDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGETO FORECAST SINCE THE MODELS COULD CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATENORTH/SOUTH DURING THE REMAINING FORECAST CYCLES.