What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Snowmageddon 2022 (2 Viewers)

Just picked up some pellets from HD, and I have to unpack the geni that I've had for 2 years (new in box). These things come with the needed oil, yes? So I should only have to get gas?

 
James Daulton said:
Just picked up some pellets from HD, and I have to unpack the geni that I've had for 2 years (new in box). These things come with the needed oil, yes? So I should only have to get gas?
Click to expand...
It should, and yes. Fresh gas is the key, which I believe is the issue I'm having with mine.

 
Work shut down at noon. I may head over to Costco on opening to grab a few "essential" (i.e. beer) supplies and then head home. Will report in from zip code 22315. Looks like we're projected for a bit of snow...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
The_Man said:
This is the RGEM, a pretty good short-term model:

http://i.imgur.com/F6RyZXa.png

I think this is a decent accumulation map, a lot more realistic than the NAM. Still, using just 10:1 ratio, there is a chance totals go higher.

I really can't believe the entire DC/Baltimore is now only about 20 hours from a widespread 20" with a realistic chance for some areas to hit 30". People around here are talking about work on Monday and don't really understand what's about to happen. I say work on Wednesday, maybe. School? Maybe Friday? We'll see. Can't believe all the area districts closed today, since it won't snow (at least here) until after dark tomorrow. They're going to regret taking that day when they're still in school on June 23.
Click to expand...
Fairfax and Loudoun counties have 13-15 snow days built in. Fairfax County already goes to June 23.

 
I know the NAM gets a lot of flak, but I think it might be on to something here. I heard a guy on TWC say that "the NAM is only right about 3 times a year." Kind of a dumb thing to say. People tend to fall into the trap that the NAM is always wrong and the Euro is always right.

NWS has upped their totals for my area to 18. MIN is 6 and the MAX is 25. I'm kind of OK with that. I get the 18 call as a safe call. Only change I'd make is MIN 10 and MAX 30.

NAM just ran and it's still sticking with about 2 feet of snow for my area.

 
James Daulton said:
matttyl said:
James Daulton said:
Just picked up some pellets from HD, and I have to unpack the geni that I've had for 2 years (new in box). These things come with the needed oil, yes? So I should only have to get gas?
Click to expand...
It should, and yes. Fresh gas is the key, which I believe is the issue I'm having with mine.
Click to expand...
If you'd have been watching the Walking Dead, you'd know that gas does not go bad.
Click to expand...
I was working under the assumption that putting fuel stabilizer into every tank was SOP during a Zombie Apocalypse.

 
TheIronSheik said:
I know the NAM gets a lot of flak, but I think it might be on to something here. I heard a guy on TWC say that "the NAM is only right about 3 times a year." Kind of a dumb thing to say. People tend to fall into the trap that the NAM is always wrong and the Euro is always right.

NWS has upped their totals for my area to 18. MIN is 6 and the MAX is 25. I'm kind of OK with that. I get the 18 call as a safe call. Only change I'd make is MIN 10 and MAX 30.

NAM just ran and it's still sticking with about 2 feet of snow for my area.
Click to expand...
Central Jersey?

 
The Goat said:
James Daulton said:
matttyl said:
James Daulton said:
Just picked up some pellets from HD, and I have to unpack the geni that I've had for 2 years (new in box). These things come with the needed oil, yes? So I should only have to get gas?
Click to expand...
It should, and yes. Fresh gas is the key, which I believe is the issue I'm having with mine.
Click to expand...
If you'd have been watching the Walking Dead, you'd know that gas does not go bad.
Click to expand...
I was working under the assumption that putting fuel stabilizer into every tank was SOP during a Zombie Apocalypse.
Click to expand...
I did that!!! Dropped off generator at local shop, and gave them a sop story about having a 6 month old at home. Was promised that if all it needs is a carburetor cleaning, they can do that this morning. If it's a carb rebuild, they can't (understandable). Fingers crossed.

 
The Goat said:
TheIronSheik said:
I know the NAM gets a lot of flak, but I think it might be on to something here. I heard a guy on TWC say that "the NAM is only right about 3 times a year." Kind of a dumb thing to say. People tend to fall into the trap that the NAM is always wrong and the Euro is always right.

NWS has upped their totals for my area to 18. MIN is 6 and the MAX is 25. I'm kind of OK with that. I get the 18 call as a safe call. Only change I'd make is MIN 10 and MAX 30.

NAM just ran and it's still sticking with about 2 feet of snow for my area.
Click to expand...
Central Jersey?
Click to expand...
They are about the same. The swath of 20" to 30" goes all across most of S PA and NJ, except for coastal areas.

 
SW Virginia already with 5 inches of snow. Just saw a picture of I-81 in that area, with no one on the road (people are heeding the warnings, good).

 
Anyone have an updated snow map of NJ? My house seems to be right on the line. I'm still in the 6"-20" range depending on what model you look at.

 
Models don't mean as much as the nowcasting going on now, but it's worth pointing out the GFS just came around to the NAM's line of thinking. My area went from about 14 to about 26 since its last run.

 
Buddy Ball 2K3 said:
TheIronSheik said:
Models don't mean as much as the nowcasting going on now, but it's worth pointing out the GFS just came around to the NAM's line of thinking. My area went from about 14 to about 26 since its last run.
Click to expand...
Any sort of timing for the Philly area yet?
Click to expand...
Last I saw was around 9-11 start time. The Blizzard Warnings take effect at 7pm, but I believe they do that as a cautionary. I'd say 9-11, give or take an hour, is probably the best guess at this time.

 
pollardsvision said:
Nowcasting?

Damn, I love weather geeks. :lmao:
Click to expand...
I believe it's actually a term that is borrowed from Economics. All it means is that instead of watching model runs and seeing what they say, we can get a much better idea by simply observing the current conditions where the storm is actually happening now.

 
I know I'm an idiot, but I'm thinking these models are pretty much worthless at this point. I'm currently shown to be getting 4" - but if this thing moves just 15 miles North, I'm getting 14".

 
TheIronSheik said:
Buddy Ball 2K3 said:
TheIronSheik said:
Models don't mean as much as the nowcasting going on now, but it's worth pointing out the GFS just came around to the NAM's line of thinking. My area went from about 14 to about 26 since its last run.
Click to expand...
Any sort of timing for the Philly area yet?
Click to expand...
Last I saw was around 9-11 start time. The Blizzard Warnings take effect at 7pm, but I believe they do that as a cautionary. I'd say 9-11, give or take an hour, is probably the best guess at this time.
Click to expand...
Perfect! Flight should not be an issue.

 
The Goat said:
I know I'm an idiot, but I'm thinking these models are pretty much worthless at this point. I'm currently shown to be getting 4" - but if this thing moves just 15 miles North, I'm getting 14".
Click to expand...
The Poconos are on the line. Some models think they'll get hit, others not so much. For anyone on the edge of the sharp cutoff, this is going to be a very tricky forecast with a high chance of a bust.

 
HFS

What if last night's crazy GFS run wasn't due to convective feedback errors, but was showing what's really going to happen!

Here is the final GFS run that we will see before the snow begins to hit DC in 2 hours:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-1746-0-77217200-1453477407.gif

If it verifies even in the vicinity of this, it will be truly a once in a century storm. 20-30" for everyone from Richmond past Philly. I've never seen anything like this; truly, I don' think anyone alive in this region has ever seen anything like what this storm continues to be forecasted to be.

 
The_Man said:
HFS

What if last night's crazy GFS run wasn't due to convective feedback errors, but was showing what's really going to happen!

Here is the final GFS run that we will see before the snow begins to hit DC in 2 hours:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-1746-0-77217200-1453477407.gif

If it verifies even in the vicinity of this, it will be truly a once in a century storm. 20-30" for everyone from Richmond past Philly. I've never seen anything like this; truly, I don' think anyone alive in this region has ever seen anything like what this storm continues to be forecasted to be.
Click to expand...
I was alive in 79' when we got hammered and had around 2'.The thing was nobody was forecasting anything close to that amount so it took us all by surprise.At least with this storm you have been warned for several days that it possibly could be really bad.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Ministry of Pain
So I bought into a "Craft" Beer n Wine store with a Drive-Thru
2
Replies
81
Views
5K
Instinctive
Instinctive
DJackson10
Need some Work related issue advice on how to settle a matter
Replies
4
Views
724
Ghost Rider
Ghost Rider
randall146
randall's ALS diary
10 11 12
Replies
588
Views
43K
Galileo
Galileo

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Back
Top