Snowmageddon 2022 (1 Viewer)

[Chappy]

HFS

What if last night's crazy GFS run wasn't due to convective feedback errors, but was showing what's really going to happen!

Here is the final GFS run that we will see before the snow begins to hit DC in 2 hours:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-1746-0-77217200-1453477407.gif

If it verifies even in the vicinity of this, it will be truly a once in a century storm. 20-30" for everyone from Richmond past Philly. I've never seen anything like this; truly, I don' think anyone alive in this region has ever seen anything like what this storm continues to be forecasted to be.

Based on that map, I'm on the line of getting 22-24 here in central jersey. Weather.com has it at getting 12-20.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Nowcasting?

Damn, I love weather geeks.

I believe it's actually a term that is borrowed from Economics. All it means is that instead of watching model runs and seeing what they say, we can get a much better idea by simply observing the current conditions where the storm is actually happening now.

You realize how silly this sounds, right?

What do you mean? Models show predictions, but by looking at events happening now, we can see the path, current readings and tendencies. Nowcasting is looking at data in Virginia and putting that to use for Pennsylvania.

 

[Demian]

Nowcasting?

Damn, I love weather geeks.

I believe it's actually a term that is borrowed from Economics. All it means is that instead of watching model runs and seeing what they say, we can get a much better idea by simply observing the current conditions where the storm is actually happening now.

You realize how silly this sounds, right?

I know right. Also known as "looking outside".

 

[TheIronSheik]

GFS, CMC and the NAM are all on the same page now with a HUGE hit! It'll be interesting to see what the Euro says. Of course, it's the one model I don't have first hand access to. Thanks a lot, Merkel!

 

[TheIronSheik]

Nowcasting?

Damn, I love weather geeks.

I believe it's actually a term that is borrowed from Economics. All it means is that instead of watching model runs and seeing what they say, we can get a much better idea by simply observing the current conditions where the storm is actually happening now.

You realize how silly this sounds, right?

I know right. Also known as "looking outside".

Not the same thing at all. I can see the ACTUAL current pressure of the storm right now. And that info is used to predict future events. Models are run every 6 or 12 hours and the data is not as current.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Models don't mean as much as the nowcasting going on now, but it's worth pointing out the GFS just came around to the NAM's line of thinking. My area went from about 14 to about 26 since its last run.

Any sort of timing for the Philly area yet?

Last I saw was around 9-11 start time. The Blizzard Warnings take effect at 7pm, but I believe they do that as a cautionary. I'd say 9-11, give or take an hour, is probably the best guess at this time.

Perfect! Flight should not be an issue.

STRIKE WHAT I JUST SAID!

Here's an update from Mt. Holly that was just issued:

MID MORNING UPDATE...BASED ON TRENDS IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE, RADAR AND SURFACE

OBSERVATIONS, THE SNOW LOOKS TO COME IN FASTER. THE WORDING IN THE

WINTER HEADLINES WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EARLIER ARRIVAL

OF THE SNOW. A SPS WAS ISSUED FOR SOUTH OF PHILLY AS WE ARE

PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH THE SNOW STARTING DURING THE

AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE. ONCE THE SNOW STARTS, IT WON`T TAKE

LONG FOR IT TO BECOME MODERATE TO EVEN LOCALLY HEAVY IN INTENSITY.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RATES TO APPROACH 1"/HR IN THE DELMARVA

AND SOUTHERN-MOST PART OF NJ AT THE TAIL END OF RUSH HOUR.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

It's showtime here in Woodstock, folks. For those following along and don't know the town, it's in western VA on I-81 about 15 miles south of the I-66/I-81 interchange.

 

[Otis]

Some models saying 2 feet in my area. Others saying 4 inches. Accuweather saying 8-12.



Can I get an ***OFFICIAL*** Sheik prediction for Zip Codes around 11001?*

*Not my actual zip code

 

[TheIronSheik]

Some models saying 2 feet in my area. Others saying 4 inches. Accuweather saying 8-12.



Can I get an ***OFFICIAL*** Sheik prediction for Zip Codes around 11001?*

*Not my actual zip code

Are you afraid I'll come stalk you?

 

[Otis]

HFS

What if last night's crazy GFS run wasn't due to convective feedback errors, but was showing what's really going to happen!

Here is the final GFS run that we will see before the snow begins to hit DC in 2 hours:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-1746-0-77217200-1453477407.gif

If it verifies even in the vicinity of this, it will be truly a once in a century storm. 20-30" for everyone from Richmond past Philly. I've never seen anything like this; truly, I don' think anyone alive in this region has ever seen anything like what this storm continues to be forecasted to be.

Lol at my house at 20" or so on this map.

I give up.

 

[Otis]

Some models saying 2 feet in my area. Others saying 4 inches. Accuweather saying 8-12.



Can I get an ***OFFICIAL*** Sheik prediction for Zip Codes around 11001?*

*Not my actual zip code

Are you afraid I'll come stalk you?

It's not you I'm afraid of.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Otis, what are your local forecasters saying?

 

[TheIronSheik]

Some models saying 2 feet in my area. Others saying 4 inches. Accuweather saying 8-12.



Can I get an ***OFFICIAL*** Sheik prediction for Zip Codes around 11001?*

*Not my actual zip code

Are you afraid I'll come stalk you?

Looks like most models have NYC being anywhere from a 1 to 2 feet. But you are on the line, so again, high potential of a bust.

 

[Officer Pete Malloy]

Some models saying 2 feet in my area. Others saying 4 inches. Accuweather saying 8-12.



Can I get an ***OFFICIAL*** Sheik prediction for Zip Codes around 11001?*

*Not my actual zip code

Are you afraid I'll come stalk you?

It's not you I'm afraid of.

I already know where you live.

 

[ClownCausedChaos2]

GFS, CMC and the NAM are all on the same page now with a HUGE hit! It'll be interesting to see what the Euro says. Of course, it's the one model I don't have first hand access to. Thanks a lot, Merkel!

Show me the paint-by-numbers!

 

[Tom Servo]

Restoration is done in the following order:

1) transmission (substation to substation)

2) hospitals, first responder locations and health-risk customers (e.g. oxygen);

3) neighborhoods with crews going to the location with the highest number of customers out and working their way down to single customers. It's not based on who is off the longest.

These guys will be far from home, tired, cold and working around downed/damaged equipment in unfamiliar territory. So, give them a little grace and you'll be back on soon.

I forgot to mention that if you could share this with your friends, family, neighbors, etc. it would help everyone's nerves.

 

[Tom Servo]

It's showtime here in Woodstock, folks. For those following along and don't know the town, it's in western VA on I-81 about 15 miles south of the I-66/I-81 interchange.

It's been good to know you. :salute:

 

[James Daulton]

Some models saying 2 feet in my area. Others saying 4 inches. Accuweather saying 8-12.



Can I get an ***OFFICIAL*** Sheik prediction for Zip Codes around 11001?*

*Not my actual zip code

Wants a weather report for his house, but won't give his actual zip code.

Otis from the innerwebs is serious business.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

It's showtime here in Woodstock, folks. For those following along and don't know the town, it's in western VA on I-81 about 15 miles south of the I-66/I-81 interchange.

It's been good to know you. :salute:

 

[The_Man]

Nowcasting?

Damn, I love weather geeks.

I believe it's actually a term that is borrowed from Economics. All it means is that instead of watching model runs and seeing what they say, we can get a much better idea by simply observing the current conditions where the storm is actually happening now.

You realize how silly this sounds, right?

Do pre-game analysts actually watch the Super Bowl? Same deal.

 

[Tom Servo]

VDOT traffic cams, the siege begins. So silly to see an 18 wheeler flying through that every so often. Be safe people

http://www.511virginia.org

I think the site crashed.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Restoration is done in the following order:

1) transmission (substation to substation)

2) hospitals, first responder locations and health-risk customers (e.g. oxygen);

3) neighborhoods with crews going to the location with the highest number of customers out and working their way down to single customers. It's not based on who is off the longest.

These guys will be far from home, tired, cold and working around downed/damaged equipment in unfamiliar territory. So, give them a little grace and you'll be back on soon.

I forgot to mention that if you could share this with your friends, family, neighbors, etc. it would help everyone's nerves.

Here's a question: Our house has never lost power for more than 2-3 minutes. Hardly ever goes off but when it does, it flips back on quickly. People within a couple 1/8th's of a mile from us will lose power for hours in the same storm. Someone asked if we lived near a Post Office and I said yes, it's just down the block. They said that PO's need power and get priority or something. So if you live near one, you get the benefit. Sounds fishy, but it would explain why we never lose power. Any truth to this?

 

[QuizGuy66]

So to the jersey peeps - the storm has sped up. Should be hitting South Jersey around 4pm, the mythical land of Central Jersey 6pm and North Jersey 10pm.

-QG

 

[PinkydaPimp]

So to the jersey peeps - the storm has sped up. Should be hitting South Jersey around 4pm, the mythical land of Central Jersey 6pm and North Jersey 10pm.

-QG

 

[Tom Servo]

Restoration is done in the following order:

1) transmission (substation to substation)

2) hospitals, first responder locations and health-risk customers (e.g. oxygen);

3) neighborhoods with crews going to the location with the highest number of customers out and working their way down to single customers. It's not based on who is off the longest.

These guys will be far from home, tired, cold and working around downed/damaged equipment in unfamiliar territory. So, give them a little grace and you'll be back on soon.

I forgot to mention that if you could share this with your friends, family, neighbors, etc. it would help everyone's nerves.

Here's a question: Our house has never lost power for more than 2-3 minutes. Hardly ever goes off but when it does, it flips back on quickly. People within a couple 1/8th's of a mile from us will lose power for hours in the same storm. Someone asked if we lived near a Post Office and I said yes, it's just down the block. They said that PO's need power and get priority or something. So if you live near one, you get the benefit. Sounds fishy, but it would explain why we never lose power. Any truth to this?

Post offices...not so much. You can live without mail. You have to figure that hospitals and first responders are going to get high priority because they treat and assist the wounded, etc. Post office workers can put a bandage on that paper cut.

What you're seeing with a brief outage is a device called a recloser working. Three-phase can look like this; single-phase reclosers can look like this. When a recloser senses fault current in the line, it will open up the circuit briefly to "clear" it (i.e., allow the fault current to go to ground where it naturally wants to go). It will attempt to do this three times before it will open up and stay opened up (what we call 3 shots to lockout). When the recloser locks out, then we know to patrol the area for downed wire, trees on the wire, broken poles, etc. To have that few outages probably means you either have very good reliability on your circuit, you're close to a substation, or both.

Your friends, even though they may be less than 1/2 mile away, may be on a completely different circuit. Yes, it seems weird, but it can and does happen. They could possibly be on the end of a long single-phase tap (way out in the boonies), have poor reliability, lots of trees that people won't let the company trim, etc. It's amazing the difference in performance between circuits.

 

[Jaysus]

Thoughts on this call Sheik? http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/

 

[Arizona Ron]

So to the jersey peeps - the storm has sped up. Should be hitting South Jersey around 4pm, the mythical land of Central Jersey 6pm and North Jersey 10pm.

-QG

So you're saying the storm doesn't exist?

 

[The Goat]

Some models saying 2 feet in my area. Others saying 4 inches. Accuweather saying 8-12.



Can I get an ***OFFICIAL*** Sheik prediction for Zip Codes around 11001?*

*Not my actual zip code

Are you afraid I'll come stalk you?

I was going to ask you this same question earlier.

 

[QuizGuy66]

So to the jersey peeps - the storm has sped up. Should be hitting South Jersey around 4pm, the mythical land of Central Jersey 6pm and North Jersey 10pm.

-QG

So you're saying the storm doesn't exist?

just Central Jersey

Only North Jersey and South Jersey in my world

Central Jersey is that place that a person from North Jersey will say is South Jersey and that a person from South Jersey will say is North Jersey

-QG

 

[TheIronSheik]

Thoughts on this call Sheik? http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/

These guys are good. I like their level headedness and no hype forecasts. They also do a good job of explaining things in detail as to why they decided what they did. I think they're spot on, here. I could see it ending with higher totals, and I think it might. But that's just my gut. I think they feel the same way and that's why they put in the bit about "locally higher amounts" in their call.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Linky about NJ storm-arrival times:

http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/01/snowstorm_picks_up_speed_will_hit_nj_sooner_forecasters_say.html#incart_2box_nj-homepage-featured

-QG

 

[James Daulton]

Nothing here in Baltimore yet.

 

[Swing 51]

Nothing here in Baltimore yet.

Shouldn't be long, just started in Tysons Corner in Va.

 

[Tom Servo]

Nothing here in Baltimore yet.

Shouldn't be long, just started in Tysons Corner in Va.

Seeing nothing from the traffic camera on Route 7 at Landsdowne east of Leesburg.

 

[Arizona Ron]

So to the jersey peeps - the storm has sped up. Should be hitting South Jersey around 4pm, the mythical land of Central Jersey 6pm and North Jersey 10pm.

-QG

So you're saying the storm doesn't exist?

just Central Jersey

Only North Jersey and South Jersey in my world

Central Jersey is that place that a person from North Jersey will say is South Jersey and that a person from South Jersey will say is North Jersey

-QG

I looked into this back in college when I lived in Jersey. All signs pointed to people not wanting to be associated with Newark or Camden (who can blame them) and created this magical place that no one can draw on a map.

 

[Billy Bats]

Looks like it will be arriving in Philly sooner than expected.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=278242

 

[The Goat]

So to the jersey peeps - the storm has sped up. Should be hitting South Jersey around 4pm, the mythical land of Central Jersey 6pm and North Jersey 10pm.

-QG

So you're saying the storm doesn't exist?

just Central Jersey

Only North Jersey and South Jersey in my world

Central Jersey is that place that a person from North Jersey will say is South Jersey and that a person from South Jersey will say is North Jersey

-QG

I looked into this back in college when I lived in Jersey. All signs pointed to people not wanting to be associated with Newark or Camden (who can blame them) and created this magical place that no one can draw on a map.

Lawrenceville, NJ. I've pinpointed that as the epicenter.

 

[belljr]

So to the jersey peeps - the storm has sped up. Should be hitting South Jersey around 4pm, the mythical land of Central Jersey 6pm and North Jersey 10pm.

-QG

So you're saying the storm doesn't exist?

just Central Jersey

Only North Jersey and South Jersey in my world

Central Jersey is that place that a person from North Jersey will say is South Jersey and that a person from South Jersey will say is North Jersey

-QG

:confirmed:

 

[Uruk-Hai]

I'd guess we've fallen into a half-inch/hour pace now. No wind yet. It's warm enough (& the snow is falling lightly enough) that the salt I spread on my sidewalk and driveway is keeping up. I reckon it'll lose the battle when the real #### gets here.

 

[Gawain]

How bad will storm surge on the South Shore of Long Island be? We're under two coastal flood warnings for high tide Saturday morning and night.

If I had 3 feet of water in my place during Sandy, should I be concerned?

 

[Koya]

So to the jersey peeps - the storm has sped up. Should be hitting South Jersey around 4pm, the mythical land of Central Jersey 6pm and North Jersey 10pm.

-QG

So you're saying the storm doesn't exist?

just Central Jersey

Only North Jersey and South Jersey in my world

Central Jersey is that place that a person from North Jersey will say is South Jersey and that a person from South Jersey will say is North Jersey

-QG

Exit 4-5 on the tpke... south or central joisy.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Not sure, but hopefully if the storm is moving faster it will also move through more quickly.

 

[Koya]

How bad will storm surge on the South Shore of Long Island be? We're under two coastal flood warnings for high tide Saturday morning and night. If I had 3 feet of water in my place during Sandy, should I be concerned?

Short answer, yes. Dont know your particulars but a strong surge is expected and winds gusting near 60mph.

Check outNews12 or the county websites too.

Not trying to be alarmist but its defisomething to look into

 

[Billy Bats]

Not sure, but hopefully if the storm is moving faster it will also move through more quickly.

Problem is it's supposed to stall just off the jersey shore and unload, or as Sheik would say: "get captured". So a quicker arrival may actually increase totals.

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

Nashville checking in.

Taking "white board" shtick to the next level.

 

[belljr]

So to the jersey peeps - the storm has sped up. Should be hitting South Jersey around 4pm, the mythical land of Central Jersey 6pm and North Jersey 10pm.

-QG

So you're saying the storm doesn't exist?

just Central Jersey

Only North Jersey and South Jersey in my world

Central Jersey is that place that a person from North Jersey will say is South Jersey and that a person from South Jersey will say is North Jersey

-QG

Exit 4-5 on the tpke... south or central joisy.

Burlington and Cherry Hill have 1 answer

South Easily

 

[Nick Vermeil]

What's the euro say nerds? Let's keep this thing current.

 

[Amused to Death]

So to the jersey peeps - the storm has sped up. Should be hitting South Jersey around 4pm, the mythical land of Central Jersey 6pm and North Jersey 10pm.

-QG

So you're saying the storm doesn't exist?

just Central Jersey

Only North Jersey and South Jersey in my world

Central Jersey is that place that a person from North Jersey will say is South Jersey and that a person from South Jersey will say is North Jersey

-QG

I looked into this back in college when I lived in Jersey. All signs pointed to people not wanting to be associated with Newark or Camden (who can blame them) and created this magical place that no one can draw on a map.

Lawrenceville, NJ. I've pinpointed that as the epicenter.

 

[babydemon90]

Looks like it will be arriving in Philly sooner than expected.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=278242

Is there a new ETA?

 

[Kanil]

What's the euro say nerds? Let's keep this thing current.

By keep it current, would you mean we need to "nowcast"?