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Snowmageddon 2022 (1 Viewer)

Billy Bats said:
We're gonna need you stop in this weekend and keep us posted sheik. Don't be showing up in here Monday morning with tales of armageddon after disappearing all weekend. 
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If it looks really good, I might stop in.  I have a busy weekend, so I can't promise anything.  

Looks like the overnight models have this thing being much warmer, although I'm still skeptical of that.  Not out of the question, but I'm thinking the cold will be in place.  As of now, anyway.  Still 6 days out, so the important thing is just that all of the models still show a storm.

One of my friends who is a long time, well respected met said last night that this storm has the potential to be "something special."  He also warned that it was too far out to know anything for sure, but all of the ingredients are there for something big.  I think the model runs tomorrow night will be the first models to really start putting any faith in.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Looks like the overnight models have this thing being much warmer, although I'm still skeptical of that.  Not out of the question, but I'm thinking the cold will be in place.
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That is what I read too this morning for the DC area - they are thinking it'll be too warm and just be a rain event for the DC metro.

 
Swing 51 said:
That is what I read too this morning for the DC area - they are thinking it'll be too warm and just be a rain event for the DC metro.
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Metro areas might be slightly too warm.  I think the areas just west are going to be the battleground.  I'm hoping I'm far enough west this time.

 
Models still all over the place even though they are all agreeing on the storm.  I'm still thinking cold will be in place and most will see a decent snow.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
Models still all over the place even though they are all agreeing on the storm.  I'm still thinking cold will be in place and most will see a decent snow.  
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There is approximately zero consensus with the models run to run.  They can't even agree with themselves.  Very interesting to see how this plays out. 

 
Sunday night could see a wave of energy come through.  Even with warm temps Sunday, the thumping could leave a small amount of accumulation in areas.

 
One thing is certain. I will not be getting snow. The models say so but more importantly I had a snow blower/thrower delivered yesterday. May never see snow here again.

 
JetMaxx said:
What do you see that could prevent it from going inland?
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The fact that the first piece of energy was weak and the second piece of energy would end up being the main storm that moved faster than anticipated.  I did not think the low would begin to close off so soon, causing it to slow down, allowing the northern piece of energy to move ahead of it.  

I was wrong, and it appears that the southern piece will move slower, allowing it to move inland.  We could still some a little wintry mix to either start or end, but it won't amount to anything.  

Moving on, the Polar Vortex looks like it's going to split in the next week, which will put cold air in place over the northeast.  Next storm signal is March 1st.  As I have been saying, there's a good chance for at least 1 storm a week from here until the last week of March.  I would say a good bet until the 3rd week of March, but that last week is 50/50.  It looks like once we hit April, the warm up begins and we see a nice spring, temperature wise.  While it may be warm, it might also be quite wet.

 
Snow? No worries (here). Violent weather over the next few days. Yeah, a little worried.

 
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TheIronSheik said:
Michigan getting hit hard right now.  Blizzard conditions in some areas.
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I'm straight south of there (NE IN) and we've been in the "wintry mix" band all day.  Trees and grass had a coating of ice this morning, but the roads were warm enough to keep from freezing.  As of noon there was about a half-inch of slush everywhere and we're continuing to hover around 32-35F.  Hoping it doesn't get too nasty before I can get home.

 
Chappy said:
I'm seeing possible snow for this Friday, March 4th.  What are the forecasts showing? 
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Models have been all over the place.  When one sees it, the others don't.  I'd put the chances at 50% right now for the Mid Atlantic to see snow.  It'll need to be a decent thumping if the snow is to stick to surfaces other than grass.  There is a possibility that happens, but we'll see.  After this weekend, you can pretty much put away the winter gear.  Next week will be very warm and other than a possibility of a couple quick cold shots, I think winter might be over.  With the pattern as active as it is right now, I wouldn't count out a shot of snow the next couple of weeks totally, but I'd put the chances under 5%.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
Models have been all over the place.  When one sees it, the others don't.  I'd put the chances at 50% right now for the Mid Atlantic to see snow.  It'll need to be a decent thumping if the snow is to stick to surfaces other than grass.  There is a possibility that happens, but we'll see.  After this weekend, you can pretty much put away the winter gear.  Next week will be very warm and other than a possibility of a couple quick cold shots, I think winter might be over.  With the pattern as active as it is right now, I wouldn't count out a shot of snow the next couple of weeks totally, but I'd put the chances under 5%.  
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So the groundhog was right.

 
Winter Weather Advisory for DC Metro 10pm tonight thru 10am tomorrow. Should be a fun commute tomorrow morning.

####!!

 
With very few exceptions, like the mountains of WV or a small area in VA, count on getting a coating to 3 inches.  And I believe the low end is way more likely than the high end.

This storm is coming in overnight, so obviously no worries about March sun angle.  Also, temps today will stay cold and when the snow starts, temps will be well in the 20's, so the snow should have no problem sticking to the roads.  

This is most likely it for the winter in the Mid Atlantic.  I was supposed to go skiing next weekend but it looks like temps will be hovering around 70 next week.  So.  There's that.

 
Looks like winter is trying to pull together one last punch.  Chances are very low, but a couple of the models have been hinting at snow for Sunday/Monday.  From a dusting to a major nor'easter.  

Now if this was January, I'd put a lot more faith in these models.  But for mid-March, everything has to come together just right.  Currently, I'd put the chances around 10% of seeing snow.  Can't dismiss it just yet.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Looks like winter is trying to pull together one last punch.  Chances are very low, but a couple of the models have been hinting at snow for Sunday/Monday.  From a dusting to a major nor'easter.  

Now if this was January, I'd put a lot more faith in these models.  But for mid-March, everything has to come together just right.  Currently, I'd put the chances around 10% of seeing snow.  Can't dismiss it just yet.
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I put down fertilizer nice and early this year, and whenever I do that, I get a nice big snowstorm for my troubles.

Sorry, everyone!

 
TheIronSheik said:
Looks like winter is trying to pull together one last punch.  Chances are very low, but a couple of the models have been hinting at snow for Sunday/Monday.  From a dusting to a major nor'easter.  

Now if this was January, I'd put a lot more faith in these models.  But for mid-March, everything has to come together just right.  Currently, I'd put the chances around 10% of seeing snow.  Can't dismiss it just yet.
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My kids will be having their Spring Break next week. Therefore we in NoVA will get snow!!

 
grateful zed said:
one last cold snap out here in the nw.

kinda funny how people out here dont panic.
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Lots of the panic here in the Mid-Atlantic is due to the fact that we are not prepared for snow. The cities and towns do not have enough of the proper equipment to deal with the snow that falls each year; the result is the cancellation of schools at the threat of snow.

I also think some of it near me (Northern Virginia, just west of DC) is the fact that the cancellations are done by county. I don't live in a huge county (Loudoun) but there is a significant difference in areas of the county. The eastern portion is fairly straight-forward suburban, while the western portion is more rural, and starts to to get hilly, resulting in less traveled, curvy, hilly roads that when not treated well, are not bus friendly!

Our county builds in 15 days of potential snow days into each year, and the last two years we came within 2 or 3 days of that number. Surprisingly even with a huge, week plus snow storm, we are less than 10 days off this winter.

 
Models continue to show a huge storm, then nothing, then back to a storm, then nothing...

Again, everything would have to come together perfect for it to be a huge snowstorm.  Chances are not great, but also not impossible.  Even if it doesn't turn out to be a huge storm, there is a good chance we could still see snow fall from this.  Of course, being that it will be the first day of spring, not much would stick.  I had a friend ask me when the last time we had snow on the first day of spring and it once again shows how people have such incredible short term memory when it comes to year to year weather.  The last time we saw snow on the first day of spring you have to go all the way back to 2015.  Obama was president and people were still using tablets and smartphones.  It seems like forever.  

So the things to remember here are this:  Long way out, odds are not in our favor for snow, and even if we see snow, it'll have to be a lot to stick.  And while it is not normal, just 2 days ago was the anniversary of the Storm of the Century.  So it can happen.

 
2 years ago we were driving back from Louisville in mid march and got hit hard with snow in WV.  Hard enough that we had to find a hotel way off the highway to stay the night.  So of course we're heading back out to Louisville on Friday and driving back Monday AM.  You might as well up your prediction to 100% certainty.

 
Still looking like this is going to be a miss, but models are still undecided.  There is potential for a big storm to hit the mid Atlantic and New England, but the timing of everything needs to be perfect.  Still not out of the question, though.

I do find it odd that I see a lot of well respected forecasters leaning more towards a storm than not.  Going to be an interesting next couple of model runs.  

 
Models seem to be trending west.  This has been the case for almost every storm this winter.  The more west this moves, the greater the chance of a big snowstorm.  I'm upping my chances at seeing a major snowstorm to around 20-25%.  It's definitely getting interesting.

 
Long Island area forecast today (weather.com) reduced the chances of snow in the Sun-Mon timeframe from 50% to 20% and increased temps somewhat. Do you think temps will be low enough to support any accumulations? Could be a fun end to winter, the temps seem to be moderate in the following days so I'm more curious than worried about this one.

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
Long Island area forecast today (weather.com) reduced the chances of snow in the Sun-Mon timeframe from 50% to 20% and increased temps somewhat. Do you think temps will be low enough to support any accumulations? Could be a fun end to winter, the temps seem to be moderate in the following days so I'm more curious than worried about this one.
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Those are based off the models verbatim.  They don't take into account trends or anything else.  Storm would come in at night and temps will be well below freezing.  The cold air isn't so much an issue.  Even without a storm, count on it being a very cold Sunday night.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
Models seem to be trending west.  This has been the case for almost every storm this winter.  The more west this moves, the greater the chance of a big snowstorm.  I'm upping my chances at seeing a major snowstorm to around 20-25%.  It's definitely getting interesting.
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WTF Sheik?  I just booked a flight for work Monday morning at 8am. How bad is my 5:30am drive to the airport going to be and is my flight getting out??

 
After last night's runs, I'm putting this at 50.1%.  Just slightly better than 50/50.  Again, this has the chance to be huge.  European model is showing snow totals in the 1 to 2 foot range.  

 
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