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Snowmageddon 2022 (2 Viewers)

JetMaxx said:
Not sure about down south before the trough turns negative and the storm turns north but with the cold retreating on Monday due to the lack of a cold high pressure to the north, for I95 DC north to NYC and Bos as well as suburbs this will be driving rain storm with a possible few inches of snow at the start. Easy call. Heavy snow will be in areas NW of a Harrisburgh/Scranton/Albany/Burlington geographical line. Even the areas west of there hoping for snow will have to wish that it doesn't drift further west.

Locally it will be crazy to go from temps below zero on Sun morning to rain on Tuesday. Happened twice last year.
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Appears that there will be a few inches to start but DC to BOS enjoy your warm rain storm Tuesday. Temps in the 50's. On both accounts this is about as good a forecast as could be expected 4/5 days out in the weather forecasting world. As said it was a relatively easy call if you study the models and don't just base a forecast on them.

 
JetMaxx said:
JetMaxx said:
Not sure about down south before the trough turns negative and the storm turns north but with the cold retreating on Monday due to the lack of a cold high pressure to the north, for I95 DC north to NYC and Bos as well as suburbs this will be driving rain storm with a possible few inches of snow at the start. Easy call. Heavy snow will be in areas NW of a Harrisburgh/Scranton/Albany/Burlington geographical line. Even the areas west of there hoping for snow will have to wish that it doesn't drift further west.

Locally it will be crazy to go from temps below zero on Sun morning to rain on Tuesday. Happened twice last year.
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Appears that there will be a few inches to start but DC to BOS enjoy your warm rain storm Tuesday. Temps in the 50's. On both accounts this is about as good a forecast as could be expected 4/5 days out in the weather forecasting world. As said it was a relatively easy call if you study the models and don't just base a forecast on them.
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I assume that last sentence is supposed to be a shot at me?

To say it was going to be cold, then snow, then rain, then warm and to think that you nailed the forecast is kind of funny. No one disagreed with that. It was always going to be cold then warm. And snow to rain. So, yeah. I guess that was an amazing call from 4 to 5 days out.

The whole point I had been making was where and when the ice would be. And if there would be ice. In fact, less than 12 hours out, there's still quite a disagreement on timing and how much. And pretty much every single met is still calling the forecast tricky at this point.

But congratulations on your call of cold to warm.

 
TheIronSheik said:
If I'm not mistaken all guidance including the ensemble means of both the GFS and Euro at this time supports that call and looking at the synoptic set up there's not much available to change it to an off the coast the track supporting big snows along 95. Also I don't really see much of an CAD/ice signal in our area due to retreating high. I obviously could be wrong but it looks like a brief period of snow then the cold at all levels gets scoured out rather quickly by a screaming SE wind.
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The models have the basic track down, in the fact that it's going to hit the east coast.  But there is definitely wiggle room on exact track and models have been having a tough time nailing one down.  Not much consistency run to run.  If it comes in west of 95, it'll be snow to ice to rain for us.  Up 95, snow to ice.  And just east of 95 gives us all snow.  And most likely, quite a thumping of snow.  Waiting to see the new runs to see if any of them are trending to a consensus.  


No shot at you implied. Just a statement regarding the public in general having access to models and reading them verbatim. That said, here you mention all options are possible where as I made my call for snow to rain pretty clear. Did you at any point forecast a snow to rain call?

I was clearly incorrect with the failure to see the ice possibility. It was fascinating to look at the CAD on the surface chart last evening when the models hadn't depicted it much in advance. I believe that was a result of the quicker arrival of the precip while the HP was in a more favorable position which was one caveat that was mentioned. 

 
JetMaxx said:
No shot at you implied. Just a statement regarding the public in general having access to models and reading them verbatim. That said, here you mention all options are possible where as I made my call for snow to rain pretty clear. Did you at any point forecast a snow to rain call?

I was clearly incorrect with the failure to see the ice possibility. It was fascinating to look at the CAD on the surface chart last evening when the models hadn't depicted it much in advance. I believe that was a result of the quicker arrival of the precip while the HP was in a more favorable position which was one caveat that was mentioned. 
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I did mention the possibility of ice.  That was my whole point.  When you said that it was an easy call, all I did was say that I respectfully disagreed because there was still a lot of uncertainty.  The track, the Arctic air that was already in place and the timing was all still up in the air.  To say it was an easy forecast was wrong, IMO.  

 
Looks like the next threat for a storm is middle of next week.  Lots of factors in the plus side column of this storm hitting.  Nothing guaranteed, but this is our next signal to watch.  

Looks like we get this warm up for this week and then cold air and blocking take back over.  This is ideal for big east coast storms.  I'm still thinking that we are going to be looking at this favorable pattern into the 3rd week of March.  This doesn't mean that we will be cold from now until then.  Like with this week, we could see some days of warm weather.  El Nino is a fickle little #####.  But I think we will see a storm possibility probably each week until then.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
Yeah.  My kid had a two hour delay, and after I dropped her off, I drove to work in a driving rain storm.  
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We had a two hour delay down here in Charlotte and there was 0 ice yesterday (they cancelled on the threat yesterday) and it was well above freezing last night and pouring. So, basically we had 1 day and 2 hours due to rain. I am fine with them thinking freezing rain was possible and you don't want kids stuck, just a mistake yesterday no big deal. WTF is there a delay for in the morning when the overnight temperature was 40+ and it was over 50 when my wife went to work out at 6am since they were delayed.

 
stbugs said:
We had a two hour delay down here in Charlotte and there was 0 ice yesterday (they cancelled on the threat yesterday) and it was well above freezing last night and pouring. So, basically we had 1 day and 2 hours due to rain. I am fine with them thinking freezing rain was possible and you don't want kids stuck, just a mistake yesterday no big deal. WTF is there a delay for in the morning when the overnight temperature was 40+ and it was over 50 when my wife went to work out at 6am since they were delayed.
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Yeah, the only thing I can think of (and it's still odd) would be after last year when places in the south had kids sleeping in schools because they didn't heed warnings, they may have been being overly cautious.  Very odd though.

 
TheIronSheik said:
I did mention the possibility of ice.  That was my whole point.  When you said that it was an easy call, all I did was say that I respectfully disagreed because there was still a lot of uncertainty.  The track, the Arctic air that was already in place and the timing was all still up in the air.  To say it was an easy forecast was wrong, IMO.  
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So you don't make a forecast, merely stating that all options were on the table including an all snow event and I actually make a forecast 5 days out calling for snow to driving rainstorm, which was an easy call and correct btw, and your going to clown me?!?

How did that "this storm will create its own cold air" thing work out? Gonna be almost 60 today :lmao:

 
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JetMaxx said:
So you don't make a forecast, merely stating that all options were on the table including an all snow event and I actually make a forecast 5 days out calling for snow to driving rainstorm, which was an easy call and correct btw, and your going to clown me?!?

How did that "this storm will create its own cold air" thing work out? Gonna be almost 60 today :lmao:
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Do I make a forecast at 5 days out?  No.  That's asinine.  No one is making forecasts at 5 days out and saying things like "easy call."  I also don't remember "clowning" you, unless you consider respectfully disagreeing with you as "clowning."

You should really go back and read my posts, because you're all over the place.  When I mentioned that the storm could create its own cold air, I didn't mean it would create it for months after.  The warm air was always expected.  That was pretty much an easy call.  I had mentioned that the Arctic air was going to be much harder to push out, especially depending on which track the storm took.  The fact that the storm actually moved east towards the end allowed the cold air to stay in place much longer and left most of the precipitation for yesterday as wintry.  

Honestly, you can say whatever you want about me.  I think my track record is pretty well documented here.  I try to predict with precision and educate as I do so.  If you want to be the guy who chimes in 5 days out "snow to rain", that's great.  Congratulations on your amazing call.  I'm not concerned with being the first or with giving a simplified forecast with lots of wiggle room to ensure I can say I was correct.  My point from the beginning was that ice was going to be a huge factor in this storm.  And it was.  But it was going to be very difficult to predict where and when it would happen.  There were a lot of moving parts.  And one of those parts was the storm possibly bombing out, as some models had suggested.  If that happened, it would have pushed the rain/ice/snow line due to the dynamic cooling that I had mentioned.  

Again, my only issue with what you said was that you called it an "easy call" when it was the furthest thing from an easy call.  The NWS changed their predictions THREE times last night as the storm was going on over a 6 hour period.  They usually don't do that when it's labeled an "easy call" 5 days out of the storm.  

So I'll keep going on informing people about possible weather and you can keep making predictions 5 days out.  Sorry you felt clowned.  Maybe I should have said "I REALLY respectfully disagree AND I'M HOPING NOT TO OFFEND YOU."  That's my bad.  That's on me.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Looks like the next threat for a storm is middle of next week.  Lots of factors in the plus side column of this storm hitting.  Nothing guaranteed, but this is our next signal to watch.  

Looks like we get this warm up for this week and then cold air and blocking take back over.  This is ideal for big east coast storms.  I'm still thinking that we are going to be looking at this favorable pattern into the 3rd week of March.  This doesn't mean that we will be cold from now until then.  Like with this week, we could see some days of warm weather.  El Nino is a fickle little #####.  But I think we will see a storm possibility probably each week until then.  
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Looks like a second storm signal is showing up right after this one.  Like the first one on the 24th to 26th, the next is the 27th to 29th.  Rarely do these pan out, but something to watch.  The first storm signal still looks very good.  There is a chance it could go snow to rain.  So temperature will be something to keep an eye on as this gets closer.

 
Crazy week.  Sunday was low of 0 with wind chills around -20.  Snow Monday.  Ice Monday night.  Today, Severe Thunderstorm Warning just issued.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Perhaps 


Not sure about down south before the trough turns negative and the storm turns north but with the cold retreating on Monday due to the lack of a cold high pressure to the north, for I95 DC north to NYC and Bos as well as suburbs this will be driving rain storm with a possible few inches of snow at the start. Easy call. Heavy snow will be in areas NW of a Harrisburgh/Scranton/Albany/Burlington geographical line. Even the areas west of there hoping for snow will have to wish that it doesn't drift further west.
Locally it will be crazy to go from temps below zero on Sun morning to rain on Tuesday. Happened twice last year.



Appears that there will be a few inches to start but DC to BOS enjoy your warm rain storm Tuesday. Temps in the 50's. On both accounts this is about as good a forecast as could be expected 4/5 days out in the weather forecasting world. As said it was a relatively easy call if you study the models and don't just base a forecast on them.
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I assume that last sentence is supposed to be a shot at me?

To say it was going to be cold, then snow, then rain, then warm and to think that you nailed the forecast is kind of funny.  No one disagreed with that.  It was always going to be cold then warm.  And snow to rain.  So, yeah.  I guess that was an amazing call from 4 to 5 days out.

The whole point I had been making was where and when the ice would be.  And if there would be ice.  In fact, less than 12 hours out, there's still quite a disagreement on timing and how much.  And pretty much every single met is still calling the forecast tricky at this point.

But congratulations on your call of cold to warm.  


Perhaps this toolbaggish response was in relation to a misperceived shot at you or perhaps I completely misinterpreted this post. If so my bad. You seem to be hung up on my "easy call" comment. 5 days out was an indeed an easy call in a synoptic way, it was clear that it was going to be a snow to rain storm. Not asinine in any way IMO. You held on to the anything is possible idea which was clearly incorrect.

Now a mesoscale forecast of a 6 hour ice storm 5 days out? Yes that's impossible and asinine but I did not even attempt to do that. As I said earlier, I was wrong for underestimating the brief ice transition. 

 
Euro is on board with a decent sized storm next week.  GFS ensembles and CMC still showing hits, with some members showing pretty big hits.  

I have one buddy here at work who has zero faith in me and always refers to his weather app.  I've continually proven that app wrong, yet I can't win him over.  I told him good chance of snow next week and he said his app says it'll be too warm for snow.  And that winter is over. :shrug:

 
Storm for next Tuesday night looks like it is pretty much a guarantee at this point.  Now just a matter of who gets hit by it.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
I believe we'll see more than 1 last storm.  There's a good chance we see at least one good chance for a storm each week until the third week of March.
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so a 50 gallon drum of lube may be a worthy investment then

 
Sheik - came here to find you.  Heard that the European model (the same that first predicted the huge storm a few weeks back) is now projecting another big east coast (western Carolinas and up to the north east from there) storm next week.  What say you?  When will we know more (when, where, how much)?

Thanks!

 
matttyl said:
Sheik - came here to find you.  Heard that the European model (the same that first predicted the huge storm a few weeks back) is now projecting another big east coast (western Carolinas and up to the north east from there) storm next week.  What say you?  When will we know more (when, where, how much)?

Thanks!
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Euro has been showing a big hit for the east coast.  So have the other models.  At this point, it seems fairly safe to say that a storm will happen next Tuesday into Wednesday.  The details are still sketchy.  First of all, the track of the storm.  Really, this could deviate a number of ways, all of which would benefit some areas and not others.  There is a chance that it runs right up the coast, which would be ideal for a big snow storm for most.  

Other areas that the models are far from agreement on is cold air.  This most likely won't be like the last storm where everyone went over to rain and it washed away all of the totals.  But there is a chance that some areas go over to rain towards the end, after most of the precipitation has fallen.  The "I-95 Battleground" will be a term probably heard a lot over the next couple of days.  As of now, the Euro has the rain/snow line very close to I-95.  Heavy snow to the west, not so much to the east.  And the cutoff is sharp.  As an example, over a foot of snow in Lancaster County but nothing into Southern Jersey.  Keep in mind, this isn't a forecast.  This all will change.

The key thing to focus in on now is that a storm is most likely coming.  I'd imagine that by Friday night, things will start to get fairly nailed down.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
Storm for next Tuesday night looks like it is pretty much a guarantee at this point.  Now just a matter of who gets hit by it.  
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I'm just going to cancel travel until April.  Of course I have an Amtrak to DC on Wednesday returning Friday.

 
3C's said:
GFS usually right this far out?
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All of the models and the ensembles are showing a storm.  GFS's last run just happened to show this storm bombing out.  It's not so much a matter of if the GFS is correct, but more that all of the models are showing it and that current observations point to it.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
3C's said:
GFS usually right this far out?
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All of the models and the ensembles are showing a storm.  GFS's last run just happened to show this storm bombing out.  It's not so much a matter of if the GFS is correct, but more that all of the models are showing it and that current observations point to it.  
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I realize all of the models are showing a storm. I'm talking about the current GFS run you mentioned bombing out and it being right this far out, which it typically isn't. Good chance (as it looks right now) that east of 95 (me) will be all rain.

 
3C's said:
I realize all of the models are showing a storm. I'm talking about the current GFS run you mentioned bombing out and it being right this far out, which it typically isn't. Good chance (as it looks right now) that east of 95 (me) will be all rain.
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That's your assessment, and that's cool.  I respect your opinion.  

But I'm saying that this is going to be huge.  A very fun one to track.  Also, keep in mind that we are in different areas.  I did say above that this was going to be more of a west of I-95 storm for the most part.  

 
Euro shows this thing bombing out, as well now.  This is going to be a fun weekend tracking this potential monster of a storm.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
3C's said:
I realize all of the models are showing a storm. I'm talking about the current GFS run you mentioned bombing out and it being right this far out, which it typically isn't.

Good chance (as it looks right now) that east of 95 (me) will be all rain.
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That's your assessment, and that's cool.  I respect your opinion.  

But I'm saying that this is going to be huge.  A very fun one to track.  Also, keep in mind that we are in different areas.  I did say above that this was going to be more of a west of I-95 storm for the most part.  
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Fixed my post. Those were two sort of unrelated thoughts. Storm indeed could be a good one but also be rain only/mostly for the I95 cities.

 
Billy Bats said:
Is the Euro calling for all snow in the Phily area or is that map with rain mixed in? 
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That's a snow map, not a precip map.  So anything you see is snow accumulation.  Again, the totals aren't important.  What's important is that the Euro is now showing a colder solution that makes more sense.  The GFS came in with a huge storm but had a warmer solution.  That just didn't make as much sense based off of what we see going on now.  A lot of our current readings are telling us that we are moving into a much colder solution.  Does that mean it's definitely going to be all snow?  No.  We're 7 days out, so anything can change.  

The key here is we're not just looking at models and seeing a storm.  There are a lot of factors that are pointing to a storm signal for this time frame as well as model consensus.  That's why the belief is that a storm will almost definitely hit somewhere on the EC next week.  

 
We're gonna need you stop in this weekend and keep us posted sheik. Don't be showing up in here Monday morning with tales of armageddon after disappearing all weekend. 

 
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