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Appears that there will be a few inches to start but DC to BOS enjoy your warm rain storm Tuesday. Temps in the 50's. On both accounts this is about as good a forecast as could be expected 4/5 days out in the weather forecasting world. As said it was a relatively easy call if you study the models and don't just base a forecast on them.
I assume that last sentence is supposed to be a shot at me?
The models have the basic track down, in the fact that it's going to hit the east coast. But there is definitely wiggle room on exact track and models have been having a tough time nailing one down. Not much consistency run to run. If it comes in west of 95, it'll be snow to ice to rain for us. Up 95, snow to ice. And just east of 95 gives us all snow. And most likely, quite a thumping of snow. Waiting to see the new runs to see if any of them are trending to a consensus.
I did mention the possibility of ice. That was my whole point. When you said that it was an easy call, all I did was say that I respectfully disagreed because there was still a lot of uncertainty. The track, the Arctic air that was already in place and the timing was all still up in the air. To say it was an easy forecast was wrong, IMO.
Yeah. My kid had a two hour delay, and after I dropped her off, I drove to work in a driving rain storm.
We had a two hour delay down here in Charlotte and there was 0 ice yesterday (they cancelled on the threat yesterday) and it was well above freezing last night and pouring. So, basically we had 1 day and 2 hours due to rain. I am fine with them thinking freezing rain was possible and you don't want kids stuck, just a mistake yesterday no big deal. WTF is there a delay for in the morning when the overnight temperature was 40+ and it was over 50 when my wife went to work out at 6am since they were delayed.
Yeah, the only thing I can think of (and it's still odd) would be after last year when places in the south had kids sleeping in schools because they didn't heed warnings, they may have been being overly cautious. Very odd though.
So you don't make a forecast, merely stating that all options were on the table including an all snow event and I actually make a forecast 5 days out calling for snow to driving rainstorm, which was an easy call and correct btw, and your going to clown me?!?TheIronSheik said:
Do I make a forecast at 5 days out? No. That's asinine. No one is making forecasts at 5 days out and saying things like "easy call." I also don't remember "clowning" you, unless you consider respectfully disagreeing with you as "clowning."So you don't make a forecast, merely stating that all options were on the table including an all snow event and I actually make a forecast 5 days out calling for snow to driving rainstorm, which was an easy call and correct btw, and your going to clown me?!?
How did that "this storm will create its own cold air" thing work out? Gonna be almost 60 today
weather 
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Looks like a second storm signal is showing up right after this one. Like the first one on the 24th to 26th, the next is the 27th to 29th. Rarely do these pan out, but something to watch. The first storm signal still looks very good. There is a chance it could go snow to rain. So temperature will be something to keep an eye on as this gets closer.TheIronSheik said:
I assume that last sentence is supposed to be a shot at me?TheIronSheik said:
I believe we'll see more than 1 last storm. There's a good chance we see at least one good chance for a storm each week until the third week of March.
Euro has been showing a big hit for the east coast. So have the other models. At this point, it seems fairly safe to say that a storm will happen next Tuesday into Wednesday. The details are still sketchy. First of all, the track of the storm. Really, this could deviate a number of ways, all of which would benefit some areas and not others. There is a chance that it runs right up the coast, which would be ideal for a big snow storm for most.
I'm just going to cancel travel until April. Of course I have an Amtrak to DC on Wednesday returning Friday.TheIronSheik said:
For our next storm? Are they thinking more of a rain or snow event at this point?
All of the models and the ensembles are showing a storm. GFS's last run just happened to show this storm bombing out. It's not so much a matter of if the GFS is correct, but more that all of the models are showing it and that current observations point to it.
I realize all of the models are showing a storm. I'm talking about the current GFS run you mentioned bombing out and it being right this far out, which it typically isn't. Good chance (as it looks right now) that east of 95 (me) will be all rain.
That's your assessment, and that's cool. I respect your opinion.
Fixed my post. Those were two sort of unrelated thoughts. Storm indeed could be a good one but also be rain only/mostly for the I95 cities.
Is the Euro calling for all snow in the Phily area or is that map with rain mixed in?
That's a snow map, not a precip map. So anything you see is snow accumulation. Again, the totals aren't important. What's important is that the Euro is now showing a colder solution that makes more sense. The GFS came in with a huge storm but had a warmer solution. That just didn't make as much sense based off of what we see going on now. A lot of our current readings are telling us that we are moving into a much colder solution. Does that mean it's definitely going to be all snow? No. We're 7 days out, so anything can change.
Sounds like you'll be back just in time for Round 2.Will be in Mexico from Sunday to Friday. As a hater of big storms, enjoy this one guys
