TheIronSheik
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Yeah, the kids in our neighborhood were all out playing in it, too. But this was another "storm" that didn't even cover up the top of the grass.
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Snowmageddon 2022 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter =Smackdown=
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TheIronSheik
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For Philly, this was the biggest official snowstorm of the season. They got .2 inches of snow bringing the grand total for the year up to .3 inches.
MAC_32
Footballguy
The first 23 years of my life were spent just far enough away from a great lake. Now I'm a few miles south and east of one - and it's a whole different ball game. It's usually half frozen by now, but before all of this it was sitting at 0%. So the last 62 hours were inevitable.
IrishTwinkie
Footballguy
gianmarco
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
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Cut off low for this upcoming weekend. These are probably the toughest things to forecast. Just a low that isn't really guided by anything solidly.
That said, possible snow this weekend. Right now, I'd say the chances are less than 20%, but it only takes something moving faster/slower than expected and those numbers go up. I think for interior areas, the chance of snow is pretty good. But for the I95 corridor, less than 20%.
That said, possible snow this weekend. Right now, I'd say the chances are less than 20%, but it only takes something moving faster/slower than expected and those numbers go up. I think for interior areas, the chance of snow is pretty good. But for the I95 corridor, less than 20%.
TheIronSheik
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Yeah. This winter blows.
I have this bad feeling that winter will hit beginning of February and will ruin spring with cold weather when it's supposed to be warm. Lousy Smarch weather.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
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Cut off low tells me to not believe anything until probably tomorrow. For me, it's rain. But for places forecasting snow, could change either way.
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
TheIronSheik
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Thread the needle storm this weekend, followed by two more storm signals for next week.
Not surprising since the first week of February is the snowiest part of the winter, on average. February 2nd is actually the snowiest day on average.
Side note: I saw the NWS of Mt. Holly put out a list of cities that have more snow than Philly to show just how little snow has fallen here this year. The wildest one is that Huntsville, AL has seen more snow than Philly this year. They've more than tripled Philly's total.
Not surprising since the first week of February is the snowiest part of the winter, on average. February 2nd is actually the snowiest day on average.
Side note: I saw the NWS of Mt. Holly put out a list of cities that have more snow than Philly to show just how little snow has fallen here this year. The wildest one is that Huntsville, AL has seen more snow than Philly this year. They've more than tripled Philly's total.
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
I'm seeing a possibility of a Noreaster for Philly and the east coast this weekend.
I'm guessing someone has fired up the Batsignal for @TheIronSheik.
I'm guessing someone has fired up the Batsignal for @TheIronSheik.
TheIronSheik
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Doubtful. Looks more like either a miss or rain. And I don't mind making that bold claim because I like snow and I hope I'm jinxing my guaranteed forecast of rain or a complete miss for Philly.I'm seeing a possibility of a Noreaster for Philly and the east coast this weekend.
I'm guessing someone has fired up the Batsignal for @TheIronSheik.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
It’s going to warm up after this weekend’s miss. EPO and MJO just aren’t cooperating to bring snowfall threats to our latitude. Even when we get the GOA low to move out it wants to drop into the SW US. Any change depicted in the models past day 10 is fools gold.
TheIronSheik
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Yeah, but after the warm up next week, it looks like we get into a more normal winter pattern. Not Arctic cold, but cold enough to make snow chances a possibility.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
The issue hasn’t been the cold, rather having the necessary mechanisms needed to keep storms from cutting to our west and/or entrenching the cold as they approach. Until the oscillations mentioned above change it will be more of the same unfortunately. And the track record of the models that want to forecast their change has frankly been piss poor.
TheIronSheik
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Not having cold is usually a big factor for snow. Hard to have a snowstorm when it's 55 degrees out.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
Having the +EPO is killing our snow chances. Unfortunately there is no stable indication in the long range guidance that it will change to a more favorable setup for us. Any positive development is always undone by the next run. Just one of those crappy MA winters.
TheIronSheik
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We've got just over 5 weeks left of the Snow Window. And one of those weeks falls completely in meteorological spring this year.
And next week looks fairly warm up until possibly the weekend's storm signal.
And next week looks fairly warm up until possibly the weekend's storm signal.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
From the World Climate Service on Twitter:
The 30-day AO index peaked above +3 in recent days - not quite to the level of 1989 or 1993, but an unusual episode nonetheless. Since 1950, the 30-day AO has been above +3 on 7 occasions (ending 3/59 11/78 3/89 4/90 1/92 2/93 1/07). And more to come, says ECMWF.
UGLY if you want snow but it’s looking lovely if you want an early spring.
The 30-day AO index peaked above +3 in recent days - not quite to the level of 1989 or 1993, but an unusual episode nonetheless. Since 1950, the 30-day AO has been above +3 on 7 occasions (ending 3/59 11/78 3/89 4/90 1/92 2/93 1/07). And more to come, says ECMWF.
UGLY if you want snow but it’s looking lovely if you want an early spring.
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
Ned
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
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As mentioned last week, the two signals for this week are Wednesday and Sunday timeframe. The first one will be a possible ice event. Could be Wednesday and/or Thursday. Meanwhile, the second storm looks like it'll start as rain and then possibly switch over to snow. The models tend to usually overestimate these events. The snow amounts can vary greatly depending on when the changeover would happen making it hard to forecast.
This is bad news for me as we are supposed to fly out Thursday and return Sunday. So I'm really hoping both of these events are misses.
This is bad news for me as we are supposed to fly out Thursday and return Sunday. So I'm really hoping both of these events are misses.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
Thursday looks like there may be some ice on the interior. Minimal. Boundary pressing south after the passing of a stronger storm on Friday opens the possibility of a few inches of snow on Saturday night-Sunday morning especially to the northwest of the big cities. Long range pointing to more favorable snow conditions after Feb 14 but my confidence is low in that coming to fruition.
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
JetMaxx
Footballguy
Forecast verification is solid. I like the “minimal” call as the ice threat is indeed minimal even in most areas under WWA given the warm dew points. Snow is relegated to northern New England. This was a pretty easy call given teleconnections.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Nah, this has been great. Gonna stay low key through this ice storm today, sounds like we will get a few inches of good snow to play around in tomorrow, then sun this weekend.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Rain supposed to change to snow here directly. Been raining HARD nonstop since at least daybreak
Im a little ascared
Im a little ascared
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Went from all rain to everything is white in about 15 mins
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
That's why Florida is awesome. Winter is about a week and a half long, then back to the warmth. Sure, it's hot as fire 9 months out of the year, but it's a good trade off.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
I grew up seeing the Sun maybe 5 months out of the year, and that was being generous. I'll gladly take Florida's climate over anywhere north of Nashville.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
If you’ve seen what I’ve seen you’d polish up the golf clubs and dig out the swim trunks. After a brief cold shot this week it gets toasty without much to change it
Last edited by a moderator:
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
JetMaxx
Footballguy
From the Mount Holly(PHL) NWS:
Bad news for #TeamSnow!
The most recently observed Arctic Oscillation is the highest daily value in our historical record (6.34), breaking the past record from February 26th, 1990 (5.91).
What this means is, in general, arctic air will tend to remain closer to the North Pole with a less variable (wavy) pattern in the polar jet. This doesn't mean we won't see cold patterns, just that chances are much reduced and cold outbreaks that do occur will tend to be short-lived.
#Snowmageddon2020cancel
Bad news for #TeamSnow!
The most recently observed Arctic Oscillation is the highest daily value in our historical record (6.34), breaking the past record from February 26th, 1990 (5.91).What this means is, in general, arctic air will tend to remain closer to the North Pole with a less variable (wavy) pattern in the polar jet. This doesn't mean we won't see cold patterns, just that chances are much reduced and cold outbreaks that do occur will tend to be short-lived.
#Snowmageddon2020cancel
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Hey jinxy....From the Mount Holly(PHL) NWS:
Bad news for #TeamSnow!
What this means is, in general, arctic air will tend to remain closer to the North Pole with a less variable (wavy) pattern in the polar jet. This doesn't mean we won't see cold patterns, just that chances are much reduced and cold outbreaks that do occur will tend to be short-lived.
#Snowmageddon2020cancel
JetMaxx
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
98% chance no.
With just under 4 weeks left in the window, we can pretty much see storm signals all the way to the end of it. As mentioned, the next couple of weeks are not favorable for snow, but that doesn't mean we won't see snow during the window. We look to have about 3 storm signals left for this snow window. It's important to remember that signals do not mean snow storms. It's simply a time when a storm has a chance of hitting our area. It could be rain, it could be a miss. But the chance is there.
These signals would all be "thread the needle" storms and require the perfect timing of cold air and precipitation, along with location. These types of storms are rare, but not extremely rare. And they can dump decent amounts of snow when the timing is perfect. That said, if you are a snow lover, this winter is on life support.
One other thing to keep in mind is that the "snow window" is the optimal timeframe for snow to fall. But we can see big snows outside of it. We had a Thanksgiving storm last year. We had a huge snowfall on Halloween a couple years back. And the most crippling east coast snow storm ever was the Blizzard of 1993 and that occurred in mid March. So if you hear anyone talk about the sun angle in March or that the ground is too warm for snow to stick in March, they are simply repeating incorrect facts they've heard on the internet. Yes, it's true it's harder to get snow in March, but we've seen a foot of snow on the first day of spring twice in the past decade. So, it happens fairly frequently. And while it does appear that the models have hinted at a cooler start to March, the models have been shiitake mushrooms the past couple of years. So, there's that.
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