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Snowmageddon 2022 (2 Viewers)

Tom Servo said:
The Accuweather app in these situations will give a percent likelihood that a given amount of snow will fall.  For example:

GT 4" -- 1%

2"-4" -- 31%

1"-2" -- 38%

0.2"-1" -- 24%

LT 0.2" -- 6%

This is more valuable information because my expectations are set for a certain range, but also that there's a wide variance of possible snow totals.
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Yes, they've been (along with others) trying to work out a system like this, but this can cause confusion, too, as they've stated themselves.  It's kind of like no matter how you do it, there's always going to confuse a large amount of people.  I like this way, but it's definitely not perfect.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Yes, they've been (along with others) trying to work out a system like this, but this can cause confusion, too, as they've stated themselves.  It's kind of like no matter how you do it, there's always going to confuse a large amount of people.  I like this way, but it's definitely not perfect.
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:goodposting:  For newscasts, this definitely wouldn't work.  For an app on a phone, IMO it's better than what came before.

 
Tom Servo said:
:goodposting:  For newscasts, this definitely wouldn't work.  For an app on a phone, IMO it's better than what came before.
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They talked about how on an app, it might be so much information that the point kind of gets lost.  The one guy was saying you'd have people complaining because it said there was a 30% chance of no snow.  His point was that because we already use the "70% chance of snow tomorrow" method, people might be confused by the percentages.  And I get that.  When I first started listening to them explain the new system, I was like, "Why hasn't anyone thought of this before?"  Then after they explained it all, they went into the reasons it might not work and I thought, "Oh yeah.  That probably would be an issue." :lol:

 
Was out at lunch for that last snow squall.  Looked really intense on the radar but wasn't warned until after it passed me.  It actually had more graupel than snow, so visibility only went down to about 1/4 of a mile or so.  But NWS posted some cool pics from Center City as it approached.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Was out at lunch for that last snow squall.  Looked really intense on the radar but wasn't warned until after it passed me.  It actually had more graupel than snow, so visibility only went down to about 1/4 of a mile or so.  But NWS posted some cool pics from Center City as it approached.
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Was pretty nuts here in the city for about 10 minutes. Now sunny again. 

 
Here's a great time lapsed video of it.  It's a little deceiving because even without the time lapse, this thing was in and out in probably 3 - 4 minutes.

Also, this would probably be considered a moderate snow squall.  Either that, or it wasn't a direct hit to where this guy was.  

 
I couldn't find the Icemageddon thread so I thought I'd post this here:  Michigan is in for a hell of an ice storm.  

 
matttyl said:
TIS, I got ~6" of snow on Tuesday, it's going to be near 70 tomorrow.  What's up with that?
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January Thaw?  

It's crazy, I know.  This winter looks like it's going to be a bust for us snow lovers.  I have two dogs and only 1 has seen a sizable snow.  I cannot wait for those two little idiots to go out and see 12 inches of snow laying on the ground. :lol:

 
  • Laughing
Reactions: Ned
TheIronSheik said:
January Thaw?  

It's crazy, I know.  This winter looks like it's going to be a bust for us snow lovers.  I have two dogs and only 1 has seen a sizable snow.  I cannot wait for those two little idiots to go out and see 12 inches of snow laying on the ground. :lol:
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Same.  My older pup is my avatar picture (dressed as Yoda).  Our new one is about a year old now.  First snow she ever saw was Tuesday, and it was only a few inches. 

 
I've seen reports of a possible inch of ice.  That's insane.  Usually a tenth of an inch will shut the city down.  .25 inches is very dangerous.  An inch is something that can be catastrophic.  Expect widespread power outages that will last for days.  Buy plenty of firewood.

 
TheIronSheik said:
I've seen reports of a possible inch of ice.  That's insane.  Usually a tenth of an inch will shut the city down.  .25 inches is very dangerous.  An inch is something that can be catastrophic.  Expect widespread power outages that will last for days.  Buy plenty of firewood.
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Where?

 3 inches of snow here Wednesday, 16 degrees when I drove to work yesterday, calling for 56 degrees tomorrow and 59 Sunday 

:crazy:

 
Looks like Friday night might turn out to be a credible event.  

There will be blocking and there will cold air.  That could lead to significant snow.

This type of system has something called "Cold Air Damming", or CAD, which means that cold air has funneled down into an area and isn't moving.  It essentially acts like a dam for the cold air.  When this happens and moisture goes over it, the rain/snow line won't move as moisture moves over it.  You might look at the radar and see that line 5 miles from your house and think it'll changeover to rain soon, but never does.  Because that cold air is just stuck there.  

With this system, we have that, plus we have blocking which means that one the system moves over the cold air, now the moisture has no where to go.  So you have cold air and moisture just stuck over the area.  This can lead to heavy snow.  If we see an event like this in late fall or early spring, it usually ends as rain, washing away whatever amounts totaled up earlier.  But because this is near the heart of the coldness of winter, it might only end in a drizzle or just ice.  

Now, it's Monday and the storm is Friday night.  So a lot can change.  And almost always does.  But this is definitely something to watch.  It's not quite a thread the needle type storm, but a lot of things have to happen just right, otherwise we could see another dusting of snow that's washed away by late rain.

 
Cold air moved further south on these runs, giving more locations more snow.  

It's important to keep in mind that this is not a nor'easter.  Those are the storms that will almost always give us the feet of snow.  Then you have the Alberta Clippers (which should be a name of a hockey team) that will come in fast and usually drop 1 to 4 inches.  

This is an overrunning storm.  It kind of fits in the middle of that.  This type of storm would probably max out near the 12 inch mark.  And by no means am I saying that's what we're getting. Right now, the potential for snow is there.  And this threat seems very good.  

 
Euro just ran and it has the path slightly more north.  That would put the bulk of the big snow in N PA.  It's odd because the other models were moving south and the Euro moved north.  Still a ways out, but no consensus yet to anything.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Euro just ran and it has the path slightly more north.  That would put the bulk of the big snow in N PA.  It's odd because the other models were moving south and the Euro moved north.  Still a ways out, but no consensus yet to anything.
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Any info on what time Friday the storm is supposed to start? My wife and daughter were planning to head to her hockey tourney in Harrisburg Saturday morning, but are now going to leave Friday.  Just trying to figure out what time they should leave to avoid driving in it as much as possible.  Be coming from NYS, so would go right through this. 

 
Skipdog77 said:
Any info on what time Friday the storm is supposed to start? My wife and daughter were planning to head to her hockey tourney in Harrisburg Saturday morning, but are now going to leave Friday.  Just trying to figure out what time they should leave to avoid driving in it as much as possible.  Be coming from NYS, so would go right through this. 
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Still a very fluid situation. May not even snow by the time we get to the weekend. But right now, looks like it’s zoning in on Saturday. 

 
Skipdog77 said:
Any info on what time Friday the storm is supposed to start? My wife and daughter were planning to head to her hockey tourney in Harrisburg Saturday morning, but are now going to leave Friday.  Just trying to figure out what time they should leave to avoid driving in it as much as possible.  Be coming from NYS, so would go right through this. 
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My wife is planning on driving the kids into Brooklyn from the Hudson Saturday morning. My Friday night out in the city depends on an afternoon Saturday start to the snow! Come on jet stream!  Help a brother out. 

 
Looks like the cold temps will stick around after this weekend.  Winter will finally take its hold on the east.

We have this weekend possible snow and a weak storm signal for middle of next week.  That gets us going with only burning 3 weeks of the 10 week window.  That means winter still has a chance to deliver normal snowfall.  We'll see how the model run are for today and if they are trending better or worse here shortly.

 
Not too much change today.  The block is bigger but the system is weaker.  That would allow for warmer air to move in quicker, meaning a changover to rain happening sooner.  

This still looks like a Saturday event with the heaviest precip coming around the midday.  

Still a lot to work out.  Right now, the chance for snow is good.  But how much is going to be the question.  Or how little. 

 
Sheik you aren't making me happy. I've got one kid that needs to go to Allentown in the morning for his karting league and one headed to Pottstown in the afternoon for winter soccer league. I much prefer this stuff hit during the week then on the weekend.

 
SwampDawg said:
Sheik you aren't making me happy. I've got one kid that needs to go to Allentown in the morning for his karting league and one headed to Pottstown in the afternoon for winter soccer league. I much prefer this stuff hit during the week then on the weekend.
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I hear ya.  Weekend snow is such a waste.  :(

 
For Allentown, you're probably looking at a sizable snow.  Could be in the 6 to 12 range.  For the Pottstown area, which is close to where I live, it would probably be in the 2 to 6 range.  

But that's going off of the current data.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
For Allentown, you're probably looking at a sizable snow.  Could be in the 6 to 12 range.  For the Pottstown area, which is close to where I live, it would probably be in the 2 to 6 range.  

But that's going off of the current data.  
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How about the north central part of the state?

 
Waiting on the new runs this morning.  Doing some quick work while I wait for the models to run.  I'd put the over/under at 5 inches right now for SE PA.  And I'd put my money on the under.  

 
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