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Snowmageddon 2022 (1 Viewer)

Leeroy Jenkins said:
That what our morning is going to look like?
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If you're near DC, no. It hasn't been nearly cold enough for the ground to freeze. Nothing is going to freeze when it hits the ground.

Wintry mix is different. That's when you are around the snow/rain line. That's fine. It's just slush at worst. But if significantly colder temps come in behind it, it can get dangerous.

 
Apple Jack said:
If you're near DC, no. It hasn't been nearly cold enough for the ground to freeze. Nothing is going to freeze when it hits the ground.

Wintry mix is different. That's when you are around the snow/rain line. That's fine. It's just slush at worst. But if significantly colder temps come in behind it, it can get dangerous.
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Philly area; Chester County. I think Sheik is close to me. 

 
Not sure where to ask this, but this seems like the best spot. 
 

I need to travel up to Ithaca from NYC area Tuesday morning for the remainder of the week. I was going to drive, and am still kind of leaning that way, because Ithaca is a hell hole and there’s no good way to get there. It’s a 4+ hour drive from here, but I’m concerned about what the Tuesday morning drive will be like in the weather, especially since I plan to leave at like 5am to be there for morning meetings.  My only other options are like a flight to Syracuse then a 1.5 hr drive (still driving, and the added headache of flying in snow, which surely will mean delays), or taking a bus or even an Uber or car service (upside there is someone else can deal with the driving, I can at least put my head down and read and do work, so the entire trip isn’t wasted). 
 

There’s the added headache of getting around up there, to and from meetings etc, so having my car will be nice for that. 
 

I’m still leaning driving overall, but is that totally stupid or fine?  I imagine people up there have to drive around in this crap all the time. Added fact, I have a BMW X7 SUV and recently threw on some good winter tires (Bridgestone Blizzaks, supposedly the best). So while it’s not a pickup with snow chains on it, it’s probably as good as most any other vehicle for this kind of driving. 
 

Thoughts??

 
Snow Squall Warnings up further north.  Worried if they hold together, they'd make it here close to rush hour.  But there's also a chance they don't make it.

 
BTW, second storm signal disappeared over the weekend.  And warm air will dominate the rest of the month.  That's "warm air" relative to normal temps.  Our Snow Window arrives on the 29th and we are officially on the clock for winter snow.  Right around that same time, we should be seeing our first sustained Arctic air of the season.  

As of right now, no storm signals.  So, as usual, we'll be seeing a Green Christmas.  Or slightly Brown Christmas. 

 
There are small squalls going on all over the area.  Nothing too major.  Except for up in the Poconos and near N NJ.  That squall line looks nasty.  Wouldn't shock me if that's where we hear about a pileup on a highway in the next hour or so.  Be safe.

 
TheIronSheik said:
There are small squalls going on all over the area.  Nothing too major.  Except for up in the Poconos and near N NJ.  That squall line looks nasty.  Wouldn't shock me if that's where we hear about a pileup on a highway in the next hour or so.  Be safe.
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As I wrote that, NWS sent a statement about the one going through West Chester and headed towards Philly.  Again, not a huge one, but bad enough to cause issues.  No Warning issued for this one... yet.

 
TheIronSheik said:
There are small squalls going on all over the area.  Nothing too major.  Except for up in the Poconos and near N NJ.  That squall line looks nasty.  Wouldn't shock me if that's where we hear about a pileup on a highway in the next hour or so.  Be safe.
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It was weird getting emergency alerts all at once on cell phones late this morning here in NY state.  Thought it was an Amber alert or something at first.

 
jhib said:
It was weird getting emergency alerts all at once on cell phones late this morning here in NY state.  Thought it was an Amber alert or something at first.
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Did they do the emergency alerts?  That's awesome.  They just started issuing these things last year and I said the biggest mistake they made was not making them an emergency alert over the smart phones.  Glad they rectified that.  People need to understand these little squalls are more dangerous than most blizzards.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Ended up being 2 fatalities.  Looking at the pictures, surprised it wasn't more.
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OMG. If you look carefully at the first picture with the cab of the yellow truck you will see 3 different types of rims. The alloy one on the left doesn’t look like it would be on either truck. I hope it’s from what looks like an SUV right at the bottom of the picture otherwise that SUV or pickup with those alloy wheels is gone. That looks horrific. 

 
TheIronSheik said:
I didn't realize this was a serious question.  I thought you were just trying to humble brag about owning a BMW SUV.  :confused:
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Was totally for serious. I mentioned the make thinking all wheel drive plus snow tires was an important part of the equation. Thank god I had them. I was white knuckles the whole way.  Which, after 5 hours, is exhausting. 
 

THANKS FOR THE HELPFUL WEATHER REPORTING THOUGH

 
While it may seem odd, forecasting long range is usually easier than short range. Mainly because you don’t have to be so specific and you’re just predicting how current conditions will progress. 

But that doesn’t mean it’s 100% correct. 
 

We hit our window this weekend and the projected cold air is not there. Or coming. Could be three weeks of slightly above average temps in January. That wipes ya down to 6 snow weeks. And with an average of 1 storm a week,  finishing perfect would be 6 storms. And that’s most likely not happening. 
 

So barring a huge snowstorm that drops 2 feet of snow, this winter is looking like an average up below average snow season. 

 
TheIronSheik said:
While it may seem odd, forecasting long range is usually easier than short range. Mainly because you don’t have to be so specific and you’re just predicting how current conditions will progress. 

But that doesn’t mean it’s 100% correct. 
 

We hit our window this weekend and the projected cold air is not there. Or coming. Could be three weeks of slightly above average temps in January. That wipes ya down to 6 snow weeks. And with an average of 1 storm a week,  finishing perfect would be 6 storms. And that’s most likely not happening. 
 

So barring a huge snowstorm that drops 2 feet of snow, this winter is looking like an average up below average snow season. 
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Do you have an early read on what may or may not be coming next week?

 
TheIronSheik said:
I usually only really focus on the northeast.  Are you asking about there or someplace else?
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I have noticed your forecasts often correlate to what I should expect here (Cleveland'ish) - I just have to be mindful of the ingredients for lake effect snow while also generally ignoring whatever southern systems you're accounting for. Thankfully it looks like the two systems I was watching won't connect and this week will go by uneventfully.

 
Looks like maybe a dusting or so for Tuesday/Wednesday.  Long term, I don't see any real chance of significant snow for the next 3 weeks or so.  That doesn't rule out a chance or two at a thread-the-needle type storms to come through.  But for the most part, the first half of the snow window is closing.  That would mean 4 weeks with no snow, leaving only 6 weeks left of the snow window.  Now, it is true that sometimes a late winter push means a cold start to spring, but there's nothing scientific about that.  It could, it could not.  

I do see some outlets saying that last week of Jan and most of Feb look like good snow chances.  But I'm a little skeptical on the long range models and forecast tools that have been downright terrible the past couple of years.  At this point, anyone who predicted above average snowfall is probably going to be wrong, barring a big nor'easter.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Looks like maybe a dusting or so for Tuesday/Wednesday.  Long term, I don't see any real chance of significant snow for the next 3 weeks or so.  That doesn't rule out a chance or two at a thread-the-needle type storms to come through.  But for the most part, the first half of the snow window is closing.  That would mean 4 weeks with no snow, leaving only 6 weeks left of the snow window.  Now, it is true that sometimes a late winter push means a cold start to spring, but there's nothing scientific about that.  It could, it could not.  

I do see some outlets saying that last week of Jan and most of Feb look like good snow chances.  But I'm a little skeptical on the long range models and forecast tools that have been downright terrible the past couple of years.  At this point, anyone who predicted above average snowfall is probably going to be wrong, barring a big nor'easter.
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Dusting or 3-5?

 
A good rule of thumb for our area is that there's always a 3 to 4 swing, both ways, in what the snowfall amounts could be from predicted.  The NWS actually has maps that show the forecasted amount, the maximum potential, and the minimum potential.  It's kind of the window of what could fall.

I bring this up because on days like this, it's most noticeable.  If the forecast calls for 10 inches of snow and you end up getting 7, it's not that big of a deal.  But if the forecast calls for 2 inches and you get a dusting, it seems like a huge bust.  These small storms can be nasty in many ways.  If it comes down too slow, we only see accumulation on the grass.  If it comes down fast, the roads will be terrible at rush hour.  

I say all of this because I want people to understand that there is DECENT POTENTIAL for difficult travels during rush hour.  There's also decent potential we see some flurries during rush hour that coat the grass.  Neither means you should let your guard down for the next storm.  Be safe driving today.  

 
matttyl said:
No flakes here yet.  Takes some time to get over the mountains I guess.
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Probably about 3" on the ground here. Roads have been covering for the last couple of hours, so the plows are going at it. Been 32 degrees here since the snow started.

Just got home. My drive is about 1.5 miles. I saw 2 accidents and almost got into one myself when someone pulled right out of a parking lot in front me. Luckily, I was going up a hill.

 
TheIronSheik said:
A good rule of thumb for our area is that there's always a 3 to 4 swing, both ways, in what the snowfall amounts could be from predicted.  The NWS actually has maps that show the forecasted amount, the maximum potential, and the minimum potential.  It's kind of the window of what could fall.

I bring this up because on days like this, it's most noticeable.  If the forecast calls for 10 inches of snow and you end up getting 7, it's not that big of a deal.  But if the forecast calls for 2 inches and you get a dusting, it seems like a huge bust.  These small storms can be nasty in many ways.  If it comes down too slow, we only see accumulation on the grass.  If it comes down fast, the roads will be terrible at rush hour.  

I say all of this because I want people to understand that there is DECENT POTENTIAL for difficult travels during rush hour.  There's also decent potential we see some flurries during rush hour that coat the grass.  Neither means you should let your guard down for the next storm.  Be safe driving today.  
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So you’re saying take the 4:11 train instead of the 5:08. 

 
Uruk-Hai said:
matttyl said:
Northern Va schools closing at 1 today with the threat. 
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They never opened over here, though the snow didn't start until about an hour ago. Coming down fairly heavy right now. 
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Loudoun Co (VA) closed at 6:00a on threat. We didn't get any flakes until 12:30p; as of now (5p) we have about 1.5 inches. The county doesn't tend to do early release. They build in a bunch of days into the calendar (3 weeks) and just call a day.

 
So just a dusting for us.

If you are in E PA today, be mindful of snow squalls.  If you are traveling or intend to travel when you get an alert, please get off the roads.  Don't end up being one of the cars involved in a huge pileup.  

 
Uruk-Hai said:
Probably about 3" on the ground here. Roads have been covering for the last couple of hours, so the plows are going at it. Been 32 degrees here since the snow started.

Just got home. My drive is about 1.5 miles. I saw 2 accidents and almost got into one myself when someone pulled right out of a parking lot in front me. Luckily, I was going up a hill.
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about 3" here as well, but a total S show on the roads.  My drive home around 1 is about 12 miles, saw multiple cars off the road.  Getting the kids home from schools on buses was also a complete disaster, with one getting into a wreck were someone in a car was killed. 

 
TheIronSheik said:
A good rule of thumb for our area is that there's always a 3 to 4 swing, both ways, in what the snowfall amounts could be from predicted.  The NWS actually has maps that show the forecasted amount, the maximum potential, and the minimum potential.  It's kind of the window of what could fall.

I bring this up because on days like this, it's most noticeable.  If the forecast calls for 10 inches of snow and you end up getting 7, it's not that big of a deal.  But if the forecast calls for 2 inches and you get a dusting, it seems like a huge bust.  These small storms can be nasty in many ways.  If it comes down too slow, we only see accumulation on the grass.  If it comes down fast, the roads will be terrible at rush hour.  

I say all of this because I want people to understand that there is DECENT POTENTIAL for difficult travels during rush hour.  There's also decent potential we see some flurries during rush hour that coat the grass.  Neither means you should let your guard down for the next storm.  Be safe driving today.  
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The Accuweather app in these situations will give a percent likelihood that a given amount of snow will fall.  For example:

GT 4" -- 1%

2"-4" -- 31%

1"-2" -- 38%

0.2"-1" -- 24%

LT 0.2" -- 6%

This is more valuable information because my expectations are set for a certain range, but also that there's a wide variance of possible snow totals.

 
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