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Snowmageddon 2022 (2 Viewers)
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TheIronSheik
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Yeah. Pattern is below average for next week and maybe the week after. I think next week we'll have our best chance to see early season flakes. Nothing worth writing home about, but still flakes before Thanksgiving is something.
Again, nothing scientific about what I'm about to say, but usually when we get measurable snow before Thanksgiving, we tend to have well below average snowfall for the winter.
TheIronSheik
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So every year, I kind of look at all of the winter forecasts, take what they researched, then make my own conclusions. Kind of how I went through college: By using other people's hardwork as my own. I state this because I want to make sure people know that I AM NOT DOING THE RESEARCH HERE. I don't say that as a disclaimer in case I'm wrong. Don't care about being right or wrong. I say this because it take A LOT of effort to do the research they do. Full time jobs, in a lot of cases. Ain't nobody got time for dat. And by nobody, I mean Sheik. Also, I'm only concerned with my general area. So that means eastern PA and surrounding areas.
OK. So that's out of the way. Here's what I see. First off, meteorological winter runs December, January and February. Anything before or after is bonus. It looks like for 2019, we will look at quick hitting clipper systems. These are the fast moving storms that come down from Canada and usually drop 1-3 inches on average. Sometimes they can drop 3-6, but 1-3 is the norm. These will dominate our pattern until the end of 2019.
As we move into 2020 (wow, that feels weird to write), the pattern looks to change. Instead of the quick moving storm, the jet stream looks to bunch up and we will see more storms that come up the coast. When storms come up the coast, this is when we have the chances to see the nor'easters. These are the storms that get named (by all mets) and dump feet, not inches. But it's very important to point out that we can have this juicy pattern, and NOT see storms. It's all about timing and position. I think it was last year we actually had one of the best setups for huge storm potential and we just couldn't get the timing down. So juicy, amped up pattern equals potential. Does not guarantee storms.
So the backend of winter, into March looks to be cold. And with that cold, we see storms. But here's the big thing, and I mentioned this before about a month ago in this thread: The Atlantic is warm. Warm water translates to energy. That's great for big nor'easters. As we watch the big storms year in and year out, the heaviest snow falls closest to the rain/snow line. The saying goes something like, "If you want the deep snow, you need to be able to smell the rain." That battleground area is where the heaviest precipitation is falling. In these storms, the precipitation is so heavy, it literally pulls down cold air from the atmosphere which allows the heaviest snow to fall in places above freezing. So what's my point? I fear a lot of these storms will have us on the battleground.
That means a lot of storms that bust because we'll get rain instead of snow. Or sleet instead of snow. But all that said, I still feel like with all of the misses of last year. And the fact that this year seems like it could be a nice setup. And because we are overdue for a large storm. I think we see a big one this winter. Probably in February. Early February.
134 days until spring!
OK. So that's out of the way. Here's what I see. First off, meteorological winter runs December, January and February. Anything before or after is bonus. It looks like for 2019, we will look at quick hitting clipper systems. These are the fast moving storms that come down from Canada and usually drop 1-3 inches on average. Sometimes they can drop 3-6, but 1-3 is the norm. These will dominate our pattern until the end of 2019.
As we move into 2020 (wow, that feels weird to write), the pattern looks to change. Instead of the quick moving storm, the jet stream looks to bunch up and we will see more storms that come up the coast. When storms come up the coast, this is when we have the chances to see the nor'easters. These are the storms that get named (by all mets) and dump feet, not inches. But it's very important to point out that we can have this juicy pattern, and NOT see storms. It's all about timing and position. I think it was last year we actually had one of the best setups for huge storm potential and we just couldn't get the timing down. So juicy, amped up pattern equals potential. Does not guarantee storms.
So the backend of winter, into March looks to be cold. And with that cold, we see storms. But here's the big thing, and I mentioned this before about a month ago in this thread: The Atlantic is warm. Warm water translates to energy. That's great for big nor'easters. As we watch the big storms year in and year out, the heaviest snow falls closest to the rain/snow line. The saying goes something like, "If you want the deep snow, you need to be able to smell the rain." That battleground area is where the heaviest precipitation is falling. In these storms, the precipitation is so heavy, it literally pulls down cold air from the atmosphere which allows the heaviest snow to fall in places above freezing. So what's my point? I fear a lot of these storms will have us on the battleground.
That means a lot of storms that bust because we'll get rain instead of snow. Or sleet instead of snow. But all that said, I still feel like with all of the misses of last year. And the fact that this year seems like it could be a nice setup. And because we are overdue for a large storm. I think we see a big one this winter. Probably in February. Early February.
134 days until spring!
TheIronSheik
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Next Tuesday is looking like it might have a chance to drop some measurable snow. At this point, I don't think it would be the crippling 3 inches we had last November. But definitely need to watch this storm.
TheIronSheik
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Most likely just a dusting. The models have been terrible with this, which leads me to believe we'll have about the 4th year in a row where the models suck during the winter months.
TheIronSheik
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One thing to add to this:
For my area, the chances of getting snow pretty much fall into a 10 week period. Not that it can't snow outside of that window, but this is our prime snow time. We get the last week of December, 4 weeks of January, 4 weeks of February, and the first week of March. On average, the storms come about once a week. That means we have about 10 chances for a big storm every winter. This has not changed in our lifetime and will not change for another hundred years. It's all about timing. So if you're watching the weather and they say no snow chance this week, chances for a big storm have dropped 10%.
So this year, our first week of good snow will be the week of December 29th. And it ends on Saturday, March 7th. That's our prime snow range.
TheIronSheik
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Right now, this is Philly's 12th coldest November EVER! Or, in the last 150 so years. But 'ever' sounds much more scary.
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TheIronSheik
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First storm signal of the season us will be the 5th through the 9th timeframe. Looks like we'll get a shot of cold and then a storm. Since this is still outside of our snowfall window, the chances aren't great of it coming to fruition, but there is definitely a chance. "Bonus snow" is not common, but it is not rare, either.
TheIronSheik
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All of a sudden, that storm signal that was fading yesterday is now looking like it might be something. Watching for a possible nor'easter this Sunday night. Lots of things look promising about the setup. If this was January, I'd be psyched. The fact that it's November has my excitement slightly tempered. But we shall see. 
TheIronSheik
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I love snow maps for events 5 days+ out. What's the point? 
For my area, lowest amount I've seen is nothing. Highest amount is 23 inches. I think that range is a good starting point. I think we'll definitely see between 0 and 23 inches of snow this weekend. At least a 80% chance of that.
For my area, lowest amount I've seen is nothing. Highest amount is 23 inches. I think that range is a good starting point. I think we'll definitely see between 0 and 23 inches of snow this weekend. At least a 80% chance of that.
SwampDawg
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
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Models are trending back to a more realistic event for Sunday/Monday. As with most storms up the coast, it's all about timing. And it takes a lot to get everything to come together just right. But when you do, you can get the epic storms. It's also why these storms can have such high bust potentials.
Looks like the timing is off. For SE PA, there the chances of the secondary low forming in time is looking less and less likely. Which means the focus will be on the first wave, which will be Sunday morning into the afternoon. As the system moves into the area, the cold air is set fairly solidly in place. This leaves us as the battleground for rain and snow. What's that mean? That means it would start out as maybe snowflakes. But then we would see sleet or freezing rain for the morning into the afternoon. As we move into the afternoon, the cold air recedes northwards and we would change over to rain. I think if we see a change in the next couple of runs, it would be to a warmer solution, not colder. Meaning less wintry stuff and more rain.
If the low formed in time off the coast, Sunday night would've been the time we'd see the heavy snow as the low wrapped cold air around and dynamic cooling helped provide the cold needed for snow. But this looks less and less likely with each run.
When it comes to "timing" storms, your chances aren't great outside of that snowfall window I talked about. So since we are still about 4 weeks from that window, I wouldn't hold my breath for this storm to time perfectly.
Looks like the timing is off. For SE PA, there the chances of the secondary low forming in time is looking less and less likely. Which means the focus will be on the first wave, which will be Sunday morning into the afternoon. As the system moves into the area, the cold air is set fairly solidly in place. This leaves us as the battleground for rain and snow. What's that mean? That means it would start out as maybe snowflakes. But then we would see sleet or freezing rain for the morning into the afternoon. As we move into the afternoon, the cold air recedes northwards and we would change over to rain. I think if we see a change in the next couple of runs, it would be to a warmer solution, not colder. Meaning less wintry stuff and more rain.
If the low formed in time off the coast, Sunday night would've been the time we'd see the heavy snow as the low wrapped cold air around and dynamic cooling helped provide the cold needed for snow. But this looks less and less likely with each run.
When it comes to "timing" storms, your chances aren't great outside of that snowfall window I talked about. So since we are still about 4 weeks from that window, I wouldn't hold my breath for this storm to time perfectly.
TheIronSheik
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Looks like the idea of backend snow has come back into the picture.
TheIronSheik
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Yesterday was a great example of why I always say that giving snow ranges to attempt to nail the correct total is bad forecasting.
Any time you have a storm like you had yesterday, there is such a wide range of things that can happen, or go wrong for that matter. Not one single model wasn't predicting snow for SE PA. So it seems like it would be a given that it happened. I mean, if all of your tools are saying snow, then you predict snow. But the issue is that these types of systems require everything to happen just right. Not quite a "thread the needle" type storm, but a lot of things have to happen for the models predictions to happen.
In situations like this, it's important to say that while there is a chance of heavy snow, there is also a chance of no snow. Of course, if you do that, the public will say you don't know what you're talking about. Or you're hedging your bet. But the truth is, that's true. Predicting the weather is predicting the future. There is no guaranteed result. I know the NWS has been looking into ways to change snow forecasting and go with a more odds based approach, but that isn't coming anytime soon.
In the meantime, mets should focus on explaining what could and could not happen. And focus less on trying to predict the exact amount of snow that falls.
Any time you have a storm like you had yesterday, there is such a wide range of things that can happen, or go wrong for that matter. Not one single model wasn't predicting snow for SE PA. So it seems like it would be a given that it happened. I mean, if all of your tools are saying snow, then you predict snow. But the issue is that these types of systems require everything to happen just right. Not quite a "thread the needle" type storm, but a lot of things have to happen for the models predictions to happen.
In situations like this, it's important to say that while there is a chance of heavy snow, there is also a chance of no snow. Of course, if you do that, the public will say you don't know what you're talking about. Or you're hedging your bet. But the truth is, that's true. Predicting the weather is predicting the future. There is no guaranteed result. I know the NWS has been looking into ways to change snow forecasting and go with a more odds based approach, but that isn't coming anytime soon.
In the meantime, mets should focus on explaining what could and could not happen. And focus less on trying to predict the exact amount of snow that falls.
JaxBill
Footballguy
i predict 2 to 4 likes for this Sheik post with chances of 4 to 8 from people in higher elevations. Reaction may change to sarcastic sleet overnight.
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
We all know that the Mets are a dysfunctional team and need an intervention. That, and maybe a left handed bat.
TheIronSheik
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This signal has been bumped further down to the 11th. Just outside of the initial window.
Being that we are still a few weeks outside of our Snowfall Window, I'm still skeptical. But the 11th is definitely a signal to watch.
TheIronSheik
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For anyone that is counting down the days til spring like me, we've hit an important stretch here. This varies depending on your exact location, but here in SE PA we've officially hit the darkest it'll get at night time. That means 4:36pm is the earliest time of sunset. And come December 13th, we start to add time to the night, meaning on the 13th, sunset will be at 4:37. And it will continue to get lighter until the first day of summer from here on out.
"But I thought the shortest day was December 21st?"
It is. But we no longer lose daylight at night. Instead we lose it in the morning. So even though we might gain a minute at night, we will lose 2 minutes in the morning. So once we get passed December 12th, it's like we are on our long, slow march to summer.
"But I thought the shortest day was December 21st?"
It is. But we no longer lose daylight at night. Instead we lose it in the morning. So even though we might gain a minute at night, we will lose 2 minutes in the morning. So once we get passed December 12th, it's like we are on our long, slow march to summer.
TheIronSheik
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Looks like two more storm signals around the 16th and 20th. I wouldn't worry too much about the dates now, but the east coast looks like it could see snow that week.
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
MAC_32
Footballguy
To add - locals are hinting at a very cold end to the month, they're seeing signs the bottom falls out on the arctic air sometime around christmas.
TheIronSheik
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Yeah, this is the one I started referencing back around Thanksgiving. What's happening is a system (that is currently affecting us) is slowly going to move through the MA. As it heads offshore, it slows down. Originally, it looked like there could be blocking and that a second low could form off the coast, setting up a Nor'easter. But doesn't look like it anymore. Now it looks like the system pushes through tomorrow night, but slows off the coast. Cold air comes rushing in and the rain switches over to snow. A general 1 to 3 inches seems likely. That's not a prediction, but more of a generalization. It appears to be a nuisance snow, but it has a chance to hit at AM rush hour, so something to watch if you plan to drive into work on Wednesday.
Mr. Ected
Footballguy
Curious how this is going to go. We have a very lax county on cancelling schools. When you do it county-wide for a large area with wide-ranging types of roads and neighborhoods, you tend to go easy. We had 15 days built-in to the calendar for cancellations, and we haven't had to do one yet.TheIronSheik said:
I have seen weather reporters saying we will have to wait until tonite to get a more accurate estimation of amounts and times. Currently it is looking like early morning switch-over from rain to snow. Sleety rain witching over to snow during the 5-9am timeframe doesn't bode well for a morning commute.
TheIronSheik
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We are in a very large school district, too. And very hilly with winding 2 lane roads. It's still too early to say, but with it changing from rain to snow means it will take longer for snow to stick. This could mean snow only accumulating on non paved surfaces. The other key factors for these types of storms is when will the changeover occur. And forecasting that is pretty much a guessing game.
TheIronSheik
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For this event, there is going to most likely be one area that could be the jackpot area. I always find these storms a little humorous because for 90% of the people affected by it, it's most likely going to be a coating to 2 inches. Pretty much a non event. But because that frontogenesis is going to take place somewhere along the front, there is a chance that some areas see maybe up to 5 inches.
Weather forecasters go nuts trying to make the correct prediction when really it's almost impossible. And the ones that do guess right are doing just that: guessing. Point is these are high bust potential storms.
My advice, if you are going to be driving tomorrow morning, watch the weather before you go out. This will be a nowcasting event. Most likely, you'll get about an inch or two on the grass and maybe some slushy roads. But some areas could get heavy snow that comes down quick and makes roads very dangerous. And a lot of people don't seem to realize that if they have a 45 minute commute, they might be starting in good weather and driving right through the dangerous stuff. So be mindful of that.
The heavy stuff could form anywhere from Lancaster to NJ. And it'll be a narrow band about 30 miles wide.
Fun.
Weather forecasters go nuts trying to make the correct prediction when really it's almost impossible. And the ones that do guess right are doing just that: guessing. Point is these are high bust potential storms.
My advice, if you are going to be driving tomorrow morning, watch the weather before you go out. This will be a nowcasting event. Most likely, you'll get about an inch or two on the grass and maybe some slushy roads. But some areas could get heavy snow that comes down quick and makes roads very dangerous. And a lot of people don't seem to realize that if they have a 45 minute commute, they might be starting in good weather and driving right through the dangerous stuff. So be mindful of that.
The heavy stuff could form anywhere from Lancaster to NJ. And it'll be a narrow band about 30 miles wide.
Fun.
TheIronSheik
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TheIronSheik
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Last model runs looked less impressive although the current observable conditions look good.
Honestly, seeing that we're still outside of the snow window, I'd be more inclined to think we have a greater chance to wake up to flurries and sleet than a plowable snow.
Back end snow is always overdone on models. And I guess this isn't technically "back end snow" in the sense of the terminology, but it kind of is. We are counting on the cold to rush in at the back end of this front and make a changeover. Models love to predict these as decent events. And 9 out of 10 times they amount to nothing. But Charlie Brown will keep lining up to kick that ball.
Honestly, seeing that we're still outside of the snow window, I'd be more inclined to think we have a greater chance to wake up to flurries and sleet than a plowable snow.
Back end snow is always overdone on models. And I guess this isn't technically "back end snow" in the sense of the terminology, but it kind of is. We are counting on the cold to rush in at the back end of this front and make a changeover. Models love to predict these as decent events. And 9 out of 10 times they amount to nothing. But Charlie Brown will keep lining up to kick that ball.
TheIronSheik
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As expected, a non-event. We got a coating. Although, i guess I could say that's our largest snowstorm this season so far. 
Charlie Steiner
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
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First signal now lines up with Tuesday. Right now, models aren't sure if the cold air will be there for us to get snow. Right now, definitely looks like a storm, but what the p-type is is still in question. Friday's storm will help dictate how the next one reacts.
The second storm signal still looks strong. Even if it just puts down a couple of inches, it would be nice to have snow on the ground for Christmas. Contrary to how Hollywood portrays it, snow on Christmas in our area is fairly rare.
TheIronSheik
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One of my favorite things about this time of year is watching people on the internet complain that we can cancel winter because there is no snow in the forecast and we haven't had much snow to date. You can pretty much set your clock to it.
TheIronSheik
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Looks like Tuesday is trending more towards a system where no matter what it starts out as, it ends as rain. But the thing to watch more than anything is the potential for ice. It's been awhile since this area has seen a bad ice storm. Last one I really remember was back in 2012 or '013.
TheIronSheik
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Nothing set in stone yet. Friday's storm will dictate a lot on where the storm goes. Sunday morning will be when we get a better idea of when we'll know p-type.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
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Oh. My bad. Yeah. You guys may see it start as freezing rain right around rush hour. Not good.
TheIronSheik
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I can't say what's going on there, but I always say ice is nothing to be messed with. And freezing rain seems to confuse a lot of people. Almost everyone I've worked with on days when freezing rain was being called for would say things like, "They said freezing rain, but I stuck my hand outside and it's just rain coming down." Most people don't seem to realize that freezing rain comes down as a liquid and turns to ice on impact, making a perfect sheet of ice on everything.
Not saying you guys had that, but if they were calling for ice, it's always the safe bet to not send buses out with kids in them.
Mr. Ected
Footballguy
True, it just looks like rain now. I think we could have gone with the delay. At least they are considering having after school activities. We are due for 1.5-2" of rain tomorrow!
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
It's pretty slick over here, but not everything's encased in ice. They did close schools, but some of those buses have some crappy routes when the weather's bad over here (over mountain ridges, tiny winding roads, etc..).
We're up to 32 degrees now.
Mr. Ected
Footballguy
I'm sure that's why we got cancelled, too. Northern Loudoun (Near bridge into MD) as well as the western part of the county can be very hilly and windy roads. That's why they build in so many days into our school year.
BTW drove by you several times this fall with kids Marching Band. Been down to JMU and the area 2-3 times and had to go to Lynchburg for States.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
Mr. Ected
Footballguy
My neighbor works in MD, and when he can (weather and water-wise) he takes the little ferry over. Much better drive.
That ride up north in the afternoon commute is a nightmare. They are looking to widen part of 15 going out of Leesburg towards the bridge.
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
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