Milkman
Footballguy
Everybody's available so it would just depend on who you could get for him. Hard to see anybody but the JC owner giving up much for him though......
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Spencer Ware, possibly the new work horse (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ladsud
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BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
right...ask yourself who YOU would give up to get ware ...unless you have a stable of studs i cant see anyone other than th JC owner taking a chance that Ware stays relevent all season...i believe he will but i have the luxary of already owning him so im not taking any chances...i got him for beans in the 13th rd so everything he does is gravey
shadyridr
Footballguy
I doubt you can because Charles is in the back of everyone's mind but if you can then of course go for it. But there is also a chance Ware is a RB1 as well if Charles is ineffective or gets hurt again.
Milkman
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
This is what doesn't make sense: On one hand we have Ware owners here saying, OMG Ware has THE RB1 upside, KC RB usage is ridiculous, Charles is sketchy, etc. Don't you think there are non-Ware owners out there thinking all the same things?
Ware owners (like myself) are riding high right now and for good reason.
I could see things swinging the other way very, very easily. For these two reasons:
1. Schedule: Next three weeks -- NYJ, @PIT, Bye
2. Time -- During the above stretch (where possibly Ware underperforms due to matchups and inactivity) we could be getting signs that Charles is making his way back. Week 6 after the bye seems like a logical spot.
I think Ware's going to be RB2 / Flex level all year and maybe better if Charles just can't make it back to previous form, but understanding the above, right now could be a good selling window.
I could see things swinging the other way very, very easily. For these two reasons:
1. Schedule: Next three weeks -- NYJ, @PIT, Bye
2. Time -- During the above stretch (where possibly Ware underperforms due to matchups and inactivity) we could be getting signs that Charles is making his way back. Week 6 after the bye seems like a logical spot.
I think Ware's going to be RB2 / Flex level all year and maybe better if Charles just can't make it back to previous form, but understanding the above, right now could be a good selling window.
Milkman
Footballguy
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/4617/jamaal-charles
Chiefs coach Andy Reid dodged a question about Jamaal Charles' (knee) role once he returns from injury.
Reid confirmed Charles worked mostly with the scout team this week in practice, but he avoided a question about a potential timeshare once his star back returns. "When he’s ready to go, he’ll be a pretty good player," Reid said in his non-answer. "So, when he’s ready to go, he’ll be ready to go." Charles is a special player, but he will almost certainly share snaps with Spencer Ware once he returns. If someone is still willing to pay an RB1 price, it is not a bad idea to sell on Charles. Sep 17 - 9:37 AM
Source: kcchiefs.com
Chiefs coach Andy Reid dodged a question about Jamaal Charles' (knee) role once he returns from injury.
Reid confirmed Charles worked mostly with the scout team this week in practice, but he avoided a question about a potential timeshare once his star back returns. "When he’s ready to go, he’ll be a pretty good player," Reid said in his non-answer. "So, when he’s ready to go, he’ll be ready to go." Charles is a special player, but he will almost certainly share snaps with Spencer Ware once he returns. If someone is still willing to pay an RB1 price, it is not a bad idea to sell on Charles. Sep 17 - 9:37 AM
Source: kcchiefs.com
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
If someone is willing to pay RB1 price for Charles, then they are really stupid. 
I won't be surprised if we hear this coach speak about Charles all season.
I won't be surprised if we hear this coach speak about Charles all season.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Good post. For as much as I like Ware, it's hard to like any RB facing off against NYJ and PIT. Imagine if he actually runs on them though?kyoun1e said:
BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
i guess when you have to decide trading away a # 1 wr for a really good RB in a really uncertain situation, it makes things riskier ...but im sure there are owners out there willing to chance itIlov80s said:
Baloney Sandwich
Footballguy
I drafted both Ware and DeAngelo Williams so I feel I'm somewhat on borrowed time. I also have Lamar Miller so ultimately I just need one of them to get action starting on Week 4. I can't see trading either one, especially Ware. DeAngelo is my flex start and I'm hopeful Josh Gordon can produce when he is back and replace him in that spot. How good my season ends up being very well may rest with Ware and I'm good with that for now.
Milkman
Footballguy
Good thing he doesn't have to put up huge run yardage to be a RB1 now that he's in on all 3 downs catching passes and in on the GL.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I was a Ware owner. I grabbed him off the waiver wire last year so he didn't cost me anything. I traded him for a 1st and 2nd 2017 pick. I really didn't want to trade him but the uncertainty of the KC backfield, I'm stacked at the position (Ingram, Gurley, Zeke, Gio, and at the time Hyde, also Dalvin Cook is my Devy player), the 2017 class being deep were ALL factors. In my situation I tried to find a reason NOT to trade him but I could find one.
Recap:
1. He didn't cost me to begin with
2. I got a 1st and 2nd for 2017 (which is deep)
3. I'm stacked with talent at the position
4. I have Davin Cook on my Devy squad
5. The uncertainty when they have a completely healthy backfield.
:twocents:
Tex
Recap:
1. He didn't cost me to begin with
2. I got a 1st and 2nd for 2017 (which is deep)
3. I'm stacked with talent at the position
4. I have Davin Cook on my Devy squad
5. The uncertainty when they have a completely healthy backfield.
:twocents:
Tex
TripItUp
Footballguy
Spencer Ware has never proven he can handle a full workload for an extended period of time.
This attribute is what separates the Lamar Miller's from the Jay Ajayi's.
There is NO reason to believe Ware will be able to handle the workload that many of you are projecting for him.
SELL HIGH
This attribute is what separates the Lamar Miller's from the Jay Ajayi's.
There is NO reason to believe Ware will be able to handle the workload that many of you are projecting for him.
SELL HIGH
need2know
Footballguy
There is also no reason to believe he can't keep it up. He's done well with the opportunities he's had the past 2 years. Why you hating bro
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
The sample size is too small to confidently state that he can't hand a full workload. Regardless, what separates the Lamar Millers from the Jay Ajayis is talent and Ware is oozing talent.
I'm not opposed to selling, but if you are selling it's not because you're afraid that he can't handle a workload.
Tau837
Footballguy
Not in dynasty leagues. Unless selling high means getting a legit top 5-10 RB or WR, and I seriously doubt most dynasty owners would pay that price right now. I own him in 2 dynasty leagues, and I would have to be blown away to trade him in either one.
For redraft, it depends on league size, roster size, and lineup requirements. I'm in one 8 team redraft in which I would trade him, because my roster is loaded and it will be a challenge to make start/sit decisions all season; so I would like to upgrade one of my starting lineup positions. But I'm in another 12 team league, and he should maintain good flex value in that league all season. I would still trade him for the right offer, but he is more valuable to me in that league, so it would take a better offer.
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Tau837
Footballguy
The sample size is too small to confidently state that he can't hand a full workload. Regardless, what separates the Lamar Millers from the Jay Ajayis is talent and Ware is oozing talent.
I'm not opposed to selling, but if you are selling it's not because you're afraid that he can't handle a workload.
TripItUp
Footballguy
which is not what I said, just stated he hasn't proven he can...which is why this thread filled with Ware promoters is off the rails.
TripItUp
Footballguy
There are plenty of reasons, playing the percentages, Ware will not last. And that's not even taking into account Ware may be taking a back seat when the real #1RB returns in a few weeks.
The most obvious sell high in years.
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SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Ezekiel Eliot hasn't proven that he can withstand a full NFL workload so you should sell high. Do you not see the problem with this logic?
TripItUp
Footballguy
Based on the bravado in this thread, you should be getting some pretty strong offers.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Are you serious? I'm specifically referring to the ability to withstand a full workload.. the supposed knock on Ware that you brought up. It is an issue that is irrespective of talent.
I'm all for dissenting opinions on Ware. As I pointed out up thread, @kyoun1e made a strong case as to why you may want to sell Ware.
Your arguments are just weak and full of hyberbole.
Milkman
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
No, but I see the problem with your logic...selling high or a player's value is based on several factors. Which is why pretty much everybody values Elliott over Ware.
Ware's lack of track record is just one of several factors that makes him a sell high IMO.
Milkman
Footballguy
Ware has shown more on the field than EE has to date. Lots of playing time for both this year so we should have a definitive answer at the end of the year on who is better.
TripItUp
Footballguy
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
That's fine but that's not what you stated in that post.
People value Elliot over Ware because Elliot doesn't have to compete against an all-pro for touches even though ALMO looked leagues better than Elliot last week.
If I knew Ware would be the lead back from here on out I'd rather own him over Elliot.
Honestly, it seems odd to me that you're picking a fight with an RB that totaled 200 yards from scrimmage on 18 touches. How do you watch that and say "I'm going to bet against this guy."
Milkman
Footballguy
No but it's closer in Dynasty for me. I'm the outlier here though I'm sure. I wouldn't have taken EE #1 in dynasty rookie drafts this year and I'm higher on Ware than most. If I owned Zeke I would be trying to trade him for Ware in dynasty but obviously I'd be asking for more than then just Ware in return. Not because I think he is inferior but because general consensus says he is and I can get a draft pick or a player added to that deal probably.....So would you trade Zeke for Ware in redraft?
Anybody want to make this statement?
TripItUp
Footballguy
If Charles was put on IR tomorrow this isn't out of the realm of reasonableness. Zeke has more natural talent but Ware is in a MUCH better situation. All of these NFL players are elite athletes; more often than not performance comes down to opportunity.So would you trade Zeke for Ware in redraft?
Anybody want to make this statement?
One week against a swiss cheese SD defense really shouldn't be given too much weight.
Andy Reid loves Jamaal Charles and when he is ready to roll he will be the lead back. I expect we will see Charles dress by Week 4 and perhaps reclaim the lead role after the bye. I still fully expect Charles to be a very effective RB1 when he fully reclaims the role.
I actually think Charles is a great buy low candidate right now in re-drafts, especially if there is a Charles owner out there that doesn't have Ware. After Ware's week 1 performace, many people are acting like Charles' is done in KC. I don't think that is the case at all.
For the record, I own both Charles and Ware. I have to start Ware this week but my expectations are low given the Chiefs are missing both guards and are playing a much tougher defense.
Andy Reid loves Jamaal Charles and when he is ready to roll he will be the lead back. I expect we will see Charles dress by Week 4 and perhaps reclaim the lead role after the bye. I still fully expect Charles to be a very effective RB1 when he fully reclaims the role.
I actually think Charles is a great buy low candidate right now in re-drafts, especially if there is a Charles owner out there that doesn't have Ware. After Ware's week 1 performace, many people are acting like Charles' is done in KC. I don't think that is the case at all.
For the record, I own both Charles and Ware. I have to start Ware this week but my expectations are low given the Chiefs are missing both guards and are playing a much tougher defense.
TripItUp
Footballguy
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I have to say that I do not disagree with your opinion of being open to sell Ware high. In fact--I'll take it a step further--it's probably good fantasy football strategy to consider selling ANY player high when that player gives you an opportunity to do so. I want to make that clear before it comes across as me debating for the sake of debating. However--the issue with Ware here is that nobody here (whether they are on the side of supporting Ware--or a Ware contrarian like yourself) has any information on the exact status of Jamaal. We can all speculate that he will be back and in form within a few weeks--but that's just each of us throwing darts at a board. Nobody knows if Jamaal is capable of a full workload--nor does anybody know if he's even capable of returning to be the same player he once was. If you have information that specifically points in the direction that Jamaal can do those things--then Ware should be looked at as a guy to sell high. However--if people are not fully confident in Jamaals ability to return to what he used to be--then what? Objectively--let me ask you a question. If Jamaal comes back--and he looks ginger and it looks like he lost a step--and it becomes obvious that he can no longer be a bell cow for the Chiefs--what do you think Ware's role will be? I'm just curious--not debating. For me personally--I see Ware as being no worse (in regards to value and production) than a guy like Gio Bernard even if Jamaal looks halfway decent. Until that time--I see a guy where the opportunity alone makes him an RB1.
chad in Indy
Footballguy
I don't think it's as cut and dry as you are suggesting. People who are high on him are Ware owners. Non-Ware owners think he is on borrowed time until Charles gets back, so it's hard to get a good ROI in a trade offer (same reason it's hard to trade/trade for Charles owner. Scary to trade him away, and scary to trade for him).
You are pretty much left trying to use him in package deal. For me, I'd rather ride the wave and hope that Charles continues to be slow-rolled into playing time. I think Ware has shown enough anyways to steal GL work and at least be in a 70/30% split minimum with Charles if/when Charles comes back. From that perspective, he gives a solid flex with huge upside if Charles never makes it back or re-injures himself.
I only play in redraft, but I can see how it becomes even harder to let him go in Dynasty. Charles is on the downward slope of his career, and I can't see KC not kicking the tires on Ware to see what the team may have on the cheap for the next 2 years of Ware's contract.
Disclosure: I own Ware in both my leagues and Charles in one.
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
Trip
i don't disagree with your premise that Ware is a sell high, but I do disagree with your reasoning (hasn't proven he can handle a full workload) and even moreso with your example - Lamar Miller hasn't proven his either and indeed had coaches who worked with him daily who managed him because they strongly believed that he could not handle a full workload. But I think we likely agree that those coaches are dumb
Anyway, I don't want to make this about Miller so lemme turn back to Ware.
the problem with Ware is a classic one. Owners have been following the situation much closer than non owners so trading will be difficult as the perceived value is likely very different from the real value. And yes, ware owners are likely over stating his real value as that is typical of any player-owner relationship. On top of this, and indeed what truly makes Ware hard to trade away/for, is the range of possible outcomes. Here's how I look at the situation:
25% chance Charles doesn't return at all or does but is a shell of his former awesome self = Ware is a top 10 RB
65% chance Charles returns but this is a classic RBBC with Ware getting goal line = Ware is RB2 with weekly upside (see Hill, Jeremy)
10% chance Charles returns, rounds into is old form in a few weeks and relegates Ware to splitting the remains 10 weekly touches with West = Ware is an RB3 handcuff and bye week fill in
Now, those are my probabilities and others will obviously judge the situation differently. I'd guess that non owners of Ware aren't reading the Andy Reid tea leaves very closely so would be more apt to put the percentages at 5/35/65. Indeed, the FBG top 200 has Ware as RB37 so they clearly but the percentages at 0/5/95 - which obviously seems crazy to me.
The other problem is that the Charles owner is likely the only other owner reading the Reid tea leaves as closely as the Ware owner. But even if the Charles owner believes in my probabilities, he paid such a high price for Charles that he likely can't afford to sell him at high RB2 value (which is what I'd want) because he's worried about the possibility of an RBBC that renders them both mediocre. As such, the Charles owner is reasoning that he is better off sitting tight and hoping against the odds for scenario #3.
So trip, what do you put the probabilities/likelihood of each of my above Ware/Charles scenarios. What do others think?
TripItUp
Footballguy
I think it will be a committee situation in that circumstance...particularly if the Chiefs are winning.
My guess is that Reid has no intention of making Ware a workhorse as this thread title states.
TripItUp
Footballguy
here's what I have
2% he doesn't return
68% committee
30% last year's form(being more specific than your words "old form")
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Morton Muffley
Footballguy
Well, if there is any coach in the league that could figure out a way to under-use a stud RB, Andy Reid would be that coach. As such, I am now adjusting for aforementioned percentages to add a 10% chance that Reid screws this up for all us Ware owners. Let's recalc them now as:
20/60/10/10
that'd move Ware from me valuing as a high end RB2 to mid/low RB2. But at least now I have a better idea of where you ar coming from Trip. Thx for the perspective.
JFS171
Footballguy
I'm sure it's been brought up in this thread before, and I haven't read the entire thing. That said, this mirrors quite well the previous RB transitions in KC... from Priest to Johnson and from Johnson to Charles. It's laid out in numerous places if anyone wants to find it...
Jamaal Charles is a star -- he should be in the HOF IMO as one of the best per-play RBs to ever set foot on the field, evidenced by his YPC average. Last week we saw Ware handle 48%of the snaps and West handle 48% of the snaps. The game script was about as bad as could be imagined for Ware, regardless of the swiss cheese Chargers D as has been previously stated. West still approaches 200 total yards with a TD and 7 receptions... while playing 48% of the snaps. Why can't Charles assume West's offensive snaps and have nearly no effect on Ware? Maybe that's too hopeful...
Most plausible scenario in my mind, assuming Charles returns to full health. Ware handles all red zone and goal line work; Ware and Charles rotate series between the 20s. Andy Reid would love to run the ball or use screens to get his backs 40 touches a game... that leaves plenty for both Charles and Ware. I honestly think Ware has earned 15-20 touches per game the rest of the way, which still should leave another 12-15 per game for Charles, a role in which he was incredibly valuable earlier in his career. If that scenario plays out, Ware is probably an RB1/RB2 borderline guy. I think at worst he's an RB2 the rest of the way, pending health, and there's a very plausible chance in my mind that he's an RB1.
Jamaal Charles is a star -- he should be in the HOF IMO as one of the best per-play RBs to ever set foot on the field, evidenced by his YPC average. Last week we saw Ware handle 48%of the snaps and West handle 48% of the snaps. The game script was about as bad as could be imagined for Ware, regardless of the swiss cheese Chargers D as has been previously stated. West still approaches 200 total yards with a TD and 7 receptions... while playing 48% of the snaps. Why can't Charles assume West's offensive snaps and have nearly no effect on Ware? Maybe that's too hopeful...
Most plausible scenario in my mind, assuming Charles returns to full health. Ware handles all red zone and goal line work; Ware and Charles rotate series between the 20s. Andy Reid would love to run the ball or use screens to get his backs 40 touches a game... that leaves plenty for both Charles and Ware. I honestly think Ware has earned 15-20 touches per game the rest of the way, which still should leave another 12-15 per game for Charles, a role in which he was incredibly valuable earlier in his career. If that scenario plays out, Ware is probably an RB1/RB2 borderline guy. I think at worst he's an RB2 the rest of the way, pending health, and there's a very plausible chance in my mind that he's an RB1.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
well it wasn't Andy Ried as HC then, however the switch from Westbrook in philly was rather quick IIRC.
Charles won't be back next season. The Chiefs have found their back of the future. Why would they be planning around an overplayed, injury prone, 30 year old back? Ware is a first round fantasy pick next season. So in a dynasty or keeper league, he's a definite hold. You have a future stud.
As for redraft leagues, that's a little trickier. At the very least, he'll be splitting carries. And that's if Charles can come back as good as he was. Also, towards the end of the year, depending on Kansas City's playoff situation, they may just put the miles on Charles' tires since he won't be back.
As for redraft leagues, that's a little trickier. At the very least, he'll be splitting carries. And that's if Charles can come back as good as he was. Also, towards the end of the year, depending on Kansas City's playoff situation, they may just put the miles on Charles' tires since he won't be back.
I think most of us in redraft leagues drafted Ware pretty low. I got him in the 11 round. At that time he was my 5the RB. He has started since day one and has provided me with a great set of RB's. We start 3 RB's (weird but true) and I have Anderson and Forte with Ware as my third starter. I certainly can't complain even if it is a RBBC later on.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Reid didn't last week but West never touches it for the 50% of the snaps he was on the field. Ware was well rested which is why he tore San Diego a new one in the 2nd half.
-Some guys can't be kept on the bench, to pretend like Ware is an egg crate or Reid just won't be pushed into a corner and HAVE to use him...Reid managed to get him almost all the carries last week and keep him rested, because Andy Reid is an NFL coach and we're two chumps drinking beer on a couch.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
So we can almost compare this to the 2007 and 2008 Jaguars team that featured a split between 30 something Fred Taylor(Charles) and the younger MJD(Ware)? Based on the Chiefs prior usage and taking an average of what the Jags tandem did over two years the split looks something like this over the course of the season: (assuming both Charles and Ware stay healthy)
Charles rushing: 150/800/6 receiving: 30/300/2
Ware rushing: 160/800/10 recieving: 40/500/3
This would put Ware at top 5 RB and Charles at top 15 RB in my PPR league last year. Both would have starter value.
Am I off in my thinking here? Does West cut into their numbers even when Charles healthy? I personally think West becomes a non factor when Charles is healthy, but I have nothing concrete to base that on. Feel free to chime in with other facts or opinions that might help this along.
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