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Spencer Ware, possibly the new work horse (3 Viewers)

Todem said:
Strong hold. I think I struck 8th round gold here! I was really impressed yesterday.

This is turning into quite the story for FF at RB. He looked ridiculous. He is going to be a big part of this team all year. I think Charles may have a tough time coming back to begin with, and by the time he returns....he very well may be a role player. Again...advanced age, lot's of wear on the tread, and everything seems to indicate that they have not liked how Charles has looked in practice. He is not running with confidence. Not planting and cutting like a confident RB. The mental edge might be tarnished after a second ACL injury. That is the toughest part in coming back. The confidence to plant and cut on the knee. It remains to be seen if he can make it back this time. 

Ware is the teams horse now and for the foreseeable future. 
I'd have to see Charles run again before I invested in him. Good point in this post...and that's the mental edge. I remember reading something about Keith Marshall returning from his knee injury. He wasn't afraid of getting hit but when he was running he was looking for where the tacklers were instead of looking for open space. Subtle difference but says a lot.

 
I'd have to see Charles run again before I invested in him. Good point in this post...and that's the mental edge. I remember reading something about Keith Marshall returning from his knee injury. He wasn't afraid of getting hit but when he was running he was looking for where the tacklers were instead of looking for open space. Subtle difference but says a lot.
I love Charles. One of the best in the game when healthy. But yeah......he may have really lost that mental edge. You can't play running back (or any position for that matter) and worry about planting and stopping etc. Either he has 100% confidence in his body and that he is healed....or he just may be done between the ears. Once you lose that....

It's over.

But if he get's it back here in a few weeks.....the Chiefs have a great problem to deal with. I think there is genuine concern Charles may never be the same back again on that coaching staff.

Again...time will tell. 

 
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trading or not trading Ware could make or break...depending on how you think JC will play when he returns means you are either selling high or staying the course.  I'm going to stay in a wait and see mode as I like what I saw and I suspect the KC coaches did too.  They want to win a superbowl and this NFL now requires a RBBC to keep people healthy and fresh, so I'm not expecting JC to jump and immediately regain all his touches.  a time share still equals value, albeit, not likely a nearly 200 yd-1 TD performance value, but value nonetheless

 
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Didn't Charles already come back from an ACL in the past?  That didn't seem to affect his mental status, so I don't see why this one would.  Any delays/setbacks are probably mental.

 
Didn't Charles already come back from an ACL in the past?  That didn't seem to affect his mental status, so I don't see why this one would.  Any delays/setbacks are probably mental.
He hits the magic RB age of 30 this season. That's already a death sentence for most backs. Add to it the second knee surgery and there's plenty of reason for uncertainty about his effectiveness upon return.

 
Starting every week from here on out with confidence.  If and when charles returns ware is still gonna be a big part of this awesome rb centric offense

 
He hits the magic RB age of 30 this season. That's already a death sentence for most backs. Add to it the second knee surgery and there's plenty of reason for uncertainty about his effectiveness upon return.
I think touches are a better predictor of drop off than age. For instance, despite being close in age to AP, Charles has 40% less touches.

I think the significance of Charles' age mostly has to do with how fast he can heal. Also, has there ever been a RB to bounce back from two ACL tears?

 
I think touches are a better predictor of drop off than age. For instance, despite being close in age to AP, Charles has 40% less touches.

I think the significance of Charles' age mostly has to do with how fast he can heal. Also, has there ever been a RB to bounce back from two ACL tears?
I may be wrong, but I think Frank Gore may have had multiple ACL surgeries

 
Starting every week from here on out with confidence.  If and when charles returns ware is still gonna be a big part of this awesome rb centric offense
You start Spencer Ware until either Spencer Ware or Andy Reid cause you to not start Spencer Ware.  I don't think it has anything to do with Charles at this point. 

 
He hits the magic RB age of 30 this season. That's already a death sentence for most backs. Add to it the second knee surgery and there's plenty of reason for uncertainty about his effectiveness upon return.
The age 30 thing is mostly a myth. Most backs that earned a heavy workload in their younger days were able to do so again at 30. Guys that are so so don't usually make it to 30. Guys that are good don't usually fall to pieces at 30, they normally struggle at 31 until 32.

Last year, there the RB12 in standard leagues scored 163 points and the RB24 scored 124. There have been 35 RBs in their age 30 season that scored at least 163 points and 60 that have scored at least 124 points.

In recent years, ADP, Gore, Fred Jackson, Forte, and Woodhead fell in the first category and Turner, McGahee, DeAngelo Williams, and Rashad Jennings fell in the second category. Given that Charles has the highest ypc average of any RB in the history of football, I'm guessing if anyone can keep playing it would be him.

 
I own Ware. People (media) are getting very carries away with the "Charles is done" narrative. When he gets back healthy, he'll be the lead dog with a heavy dose of Ware (hopefully). 

 
The age 30 thing is mostly a myth. Most backs that earned a heavy workload in their younger days were able to do so again at 30. Guys that are so so don't usually make it to 30. Guys that are good don't usually fall to pieces at 30, they normally struggle at 31 until 32.

Last year, there the RB12 in standard leagues scored 163 points and the RB24 scored 124. There have been 35 RBs in their age 30 season that scored at least 163 points and 60 that have scored at least 124 points.

In recent years, ADP, Gore, Fred Jackson, Forte, and Woodhead fell in the first category and Turner, McGahee, DeAngelo Williams, and Rashad Jennings fell in the second category. Given that Charles has the highest ypc average of any RB in the history of football, I'm guessing if anyone can keep playing it would be him.
It's still concerning that he isn't ready to play eleven months after surgery. These days, standard recovery time has become 8-10 months. That could be an indication that there is something else going on with the knee. Or just an indication that age is catching up to him. I don't know obviously. Not sure anyone does at this point. If Charles somehow comes back and is the player he was pre-injury, the Chiefs have a 'problem' every team wishes it did. They can still have Charles' home run ability without having to pound him into the ground. Splitting carries with Charles and Ware would be brutal to defend. Especially in the second half while both are fresh and the defense is beaten down.

 
Details are sparse at the moment, but Charles could just be getting his sea legs back and getting into football shape.  IIRC, he didn't start any contact drills at all until the first week of September. His knee may not really be the issue . . . it could easily be his strength and conditioning.

 
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Didn't Charles already come back from an ACL in the past?  That didn't seem to affect his mental status, so I don't see why this one would.  Any delays/setbacks are probably mental.
Things change. It's his second one. He is older, has a lot more wear and tear on the body. I am obviously purely speculating. But being an old geezer who recently just hung up his baseball cleats....I can tell you once you start thinking you maybe can't do this or that anymore it's over. If he does not have the confidence to stop on a dime and cut hard...his game is finished. Because he is a track star RB. Not a banger or plodder. Everything he does was predicated on change of direction, hard cut's, slashing and then off to the races. 

Coming back from a second ACL is a really tough task. One rarely achieved at his position at his advanced age and amount of carries over the course of his entire career starting from High school onward. It is mentally and physically draining. And assuming "well he already came once" is exactly the type of thinking a lot of guys had when they pulled the trigger on him in the 2nd or 3rd round. I was very wary when I heard he was not even really practicing full speed nor running with the ones in camp. Red flags were popping up. he is not as close as some may think to getting back on the field. I have always used the "two year rule" in regards to ACL/Achilles Injuries. It has worked 80% of the time. If I used it with ADP I would have been wrong....but 8/10 times the player was not the same nor nearly as effective until 2 seasons removed from the injury. I realize guys get back on the field crazy fast these days.....it still does not equate to top line performance at their going ADP's. Charles was drafted far too early for a guy coming off his second ACL mid season no less in 2015. Same for Levon Bell. PCL and ACL and people think he is just going to dominate again this year? And remember too Charles's first ACL was only 12 carries for the season then done. So he had a lot more time and was much younger the first time around. This latest was almost half way through the season (5 games). So it is reasonable to say he probably won't be truly ready to go full speed till at least October, and even then what will we get coming off his second major knee injury and at age 29 (turning 30 December)?

It's a tough call because we know how great he was. But that may all be over. It can happen that fast after a 2nd major injury like this.

 
I may be wrong, but I think Frank Gore may have had multiple ACL surgeries
Yep at a very young age.

Gore is a low to the ground, physical runner. A true beast of a man. But his ACL injuries came at a very young age in College.

Portis declared for the NFL Draft the following year which left a wide-open gap in Miami's backfield.  Gore was positioned to start over fellow sophomore standout Willis McGahee, but his opportunity never came to fruition - he tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee during spring drills.  Gore spent the 2002 season in rehabilitation.



MIAMI - OCTOBER 2: Running back Frank Gore #32 of the University of Miami Hurricanes limps off the field. (Photo by Eliot J. Schechter/Getty Images)
Misfortune would rear its ugly head once more just five games into the 2003 season. After rushing for 468 yards on 89 carries - a 5.3 YPC average - and scoring four touchdowns, Gore suffered yet another ACL tear, but this time, in his left knee.

 
I own Ware. People (media) are getting very carries away with the "Charles is done" narrative. When he gets back healthy, he'll be the lead dog with a heavy dose of Ware (hopefully). 
I don't agree. Charles is not ready. Something is going on upstairs. If he get's his confidence back he should be OK. But I don't expect a lot this season. Pure opinion. Something is amiss. I don't think he is done, but I do think his days of being a workhorse back are. 

 
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I don't agree. Charles is not ready. Something is going on upstairs. If he get's his confidence back he should be OK. But I don't expect a lot this season. Pure opinion. Something is amiss. I don't think he is done, but I do think his days of being a workhorse back are. 
So you don't agree that Charles could just not be in game shape yet, seeing how he hasn't even had two weeks of practice with contact yet?

 
So you don't agree that Charles could just not be in game shape yet, seeing how he hasn't even had two weeks of practice with contact yet?
Very well could be just that. But no contact at this point, tells me something more is probably going on. He just may need another month to really get back to where he needs to be. We are all just speculating. 

 
So you don't agree that Charles could just not be in game shape yet, seeing how he hasn't even had two weeks of practice with contact yet?
Something just doesn't smell right with the whole Charles situation.  I believe what I see.  He isn't practicing with the ones and all the focus for the Chiefs this off season, pre-season and week 1 has been on Ware.  

Reed has continually said they are going to take it slow.  At first we just thought it meant, no need to rush him back cause he is a veteran.   But then that weird interview with Charles came out and it sure sounded like he didn't think he was ready for some reason.  Then the practice report where he was third in line if there was time left, and then he misses week 1, and now the rumors are he will miss week 2.  Something is way off and I don't think its condition.  This is a pretty seasoned vet here who has never had conditioning issues.  I remember when AP was coming back from his ACL and they had all these videos of him doing springs and lifting and that was in training came after tearing his in December the year before.  

I understand the optimism for Charles, and I love to watch the guy play, but there is no way I sell or sit Ware today.  He is the best flex in the league right now.

 
Andy Reid said they were going to work Charles back slowly... probbaly just like he did with Brian Westbrook while LeSean McCoy kept his starting spot warm. :unsure:

Spencer Ware's job to lose. That's my GUESS.

 
A couple other things. One, every tear is different and every player/recovery is different. A complete tear is different than a partial tear, and how each individual recovery goes will be completely different. ADP could have had a less severe injury and his rehab went great. Charles could have had a more complicated surgery or the tear was less quick to heal this time around. Clearly no one is going to provide this type of information and all we can do is guess. We also don't know if there are other things going on.

For example, Gronk in NE has had issues with his contract and has used that as leverage to sit out a little longer. I don't know if that has ever been an issue with Charles or not, but that's what I meant by "other things going on."

 
A couple other things. One, every tear is different and every player/recovery is different. A complete tear is different than a partial tear, and how each individual recovery goes will be completely different. ADP could have had a less severe injury and his rehab went great. Charles could have had a more complicated surgery or the tear was less quick to heal this time around. Clearly no one is going to provide this type of information and all we can do is guess. We also don't know if there are other things going on.

For example, Gronk in NE has had issues with his contract and has used that as leverage to sit out a little longer. I don't know if that has ever been an issue with Charles or not, but that's what I meant by "other things going on."
One thing Charles doesn't want to do is discuss contract right now. The guy has zero leverage and they'd probably prefer he take his $7 million dollar contract elsewhere.

 
One thing Charles doesn't want to do is discuss contract right now. The guy has zero leverage and they'd probably prefer he take his $7 million dollar contract elsewhere.
One way they appeased Gronk was to rearrange the schedule for bonuses or converted things from salary to bonuses. I don't think it cost NE more $$$. 

I am not saying that Charles complaining about his contract or money. But I believe he gets a $60,000 bonus each game he is active. Maybe he wants his $1 million game day bonuses guaranteed. Who knows. Just me speculating.

 
Something just doesn't smell right with the whole Charles situation.  I believe what I see.  He isn't practicing with the ones and all the focus for the Chiefs this off season, pre-season and week 1 has been on Ware.  

Reed has continually said they are going to take it slow.  At first we just thought it meant, no need to rush him back cause he is a veteran.   But then that weird interview with Charles came out and it sure sounded like he didn't think he was ready for some reason.  Then the practice report where he was third in line if there was time left, and then he misses week 1, and now the rumors are he will miss week 2.  Something is way off and I don't think its condition.  This is a pretty seasoned vet here who has never had conditioning issues.  I remember when AP was coming back from his ACL and they had all these videos of him doing springs and lifting and that was in training came after tearing his in December the year before.  

I understand the optimism for Charles, and I love to watch the guy play, but there is no way I sell or sit Ware today.  He is the best flex in the league right now.
On page 16 I said "I could be wrong (probably not), but the vibe I'm getting is that Charles just isn't the same guy anymore and is not as good as the young bucks on the team.  Two blown knees will do that to a guy.  What I'm saying is that I THINK it MAY be that they aren't simply waiting for him to heal and then he'll be back to form but that they can see he's not going to ever be back to form and the new version isn't their best option. "

I think you and I agree.

 
Besides Deuce McAllister, has there ever even been a RB in the NFL who has had 2 ACL's? I can't recall any others.

 
Chiefs didnt put Charles on PUP list or IR... that tells me they think charles is close to returning and definitely will return within the first 6 weeks.  If Charles is active on game day he is going to get 50% of the work if not more... the only way charles becomes a backup to ware is if Charles does not perform at ware's level.  i'm expecting charles/ware timeshare once he's back.

 
I have been a proponent of Ware before the "hype" built up on him this season.  There is a lotto ticket thread where I named him as being the difference maker of the year. With that being said--I do think that people are maybe going a bit too far with him in regards to his role when Charles returns.  When Charles does return (and I'm not talking the first or second game when he is eased in)--I think that Ware will get enough run to where he is a solid RB2/Flex option with major upside.  He basically becomes a much better version of Gio Bernard.    Until that happens--I think he remains an RB1.     If I were to value him now in regards to re-draft trades--I think you'd have to view him as being worth a nice solid to high end WR2.    He's probably worth more than Jarvis Landry---and probably a bit less than a guy like Brandon Marshall.   That's just my 2 cents.  

 
Todem said:
Strong hold. I think I struck 8th round gold here! I was really impressed yesterday.

This is turning into quite the story for FF at RB. He looked ridiculous. He is going to be a big part of this team all year. I think Charles may have a tough time coming back to begin with, and by the time he returns....he very well may be a role player. Again...advanced age, lot's of wear on the tread, and everything seems to indicate that they have not liked how Charles has looked in practice. He is not running with confidence. Not planting and cutting like a confident RB. The mental edge might be tarnished after a second ACL injury. That is the toughest part in coming back. The confidence to plant and cut on the knee. It remains to be seen if he can make it back this time. 

Ware is the teams horse now and for the foreseeable future. 
That's a quality post. As a fellow owner I would like nothing more than to see it work out where there is a role for both with the edge to Ware obviously. 

 
I am a ware owner and a Charles super fan.  I love everything about the guy, how he has (and hopefully will) play the game.  Charles, when healthy, is as pure a runner of the football as I've ever seen.  And an incredible human being to boot.  I wish him nothing but the best and hope he gets back. 

Having said that, there are too many factors that mitigate against him being fantasy relevant this year.  As others have noted, this recovery seems to be delayed and he is clearly lacking confidence.  Anyone who follows this situation has to know that.  Something is off. 

Mire inportantly, however, there is no incentive for the Chiefs to take any risks with him whatsoever.  Ware is a stud.  They have big plans.  West is fully capable.  They don't need Jamaal right now.  Why put him at risk?   

I suspect that, if all goes well, we will see Jammy C work his way into a meaningful time share around the third quarter of the season.  If all goes well.  

Ask yourself this:. If you're the Chiefs, what incentive do you have to bring him back until you know, and he knows, that he is back?  2 acl tears is no joke.  Another serious injury and he is done.   

Ware is the play, and will be all year.   His value will take a modest hit when and if  Charles makes it back.  That is not before Halloween in my view.  

Cheers.  

 
West was on the field just about as much as Ware yesterday -- he just didn't get the ball as often.  JC will take all those snaps and maybe a few of Ware's too -- at a minimum.  It's possible both guys are decent RB2s in a RBBC with Reid.  At least until the game where he decides to give them 10 touches combined.

 
West was on the field just about as much as Ware yesterday -- he just didn't get the ball as often.  JC will take all those snaps and maybe a few of Ware's too -- at a minimum.  It's possible both guys are decent RB2s in a RBBC with Reid.  At least until the game where he decides to give them 10 touches combined.
Wow just looked it up. Snap count was 34 each.

 
I am a ware owner and a Charles super fan.  I love everything about the guy, how he has (and hopefully will) play the game.  Charles, when healthy, is as pure a runner of the football as I've ever seen.  And an incredible human being to boot.  I wish him nothing but the best and hope he gets back. 

Having said that, there are too many factors that mitigate against him being fantasy relevant this year.  As others have noted, this recovery seems to be delayed and he is clearly lacking confidence.  Anyone who follows this situation has to know that.  Something is off. 

Mire inportantly, however, there is no incentive for the Chiefs to take any risks with him whatsoever.  Ware is a stud.  They have big plans.  West is fully capable.  They don't need Jamaal right now.  Why put him at risk?   

I suspect that, if all goes well, we will see Jammy C work his way into a meaningful time share around the third quarter of the season.  If all goes well.  

Ask yourself this:. If you're the Chiefs, what incentive do you have to bring him back until you know, and he knows, that he is back?  2 acl tears is no joke.  Another serious injury and he is done.   

Ware is the play, and will be all year.   His value will take a modest hit when and if  Charles makes it back.  That is not before Halloween in my view.  

Cheers.  
Great post.  Why would the Chiefs rush Charles back now if he isn't 100% when they have two very serviceable RB's?  Why not give him the extra time, and unleash him for the second half playoff push when other teams are starting to wear down?  I think Ware owners are safe for several more weeks at the least.

 
Terry Allen

Jamal Lewis - one was in college though
Terry Allen also had one in college. The only time he tore it in the NFL was in 1993. 

So no NFL RB has blown out both their ACL's while being a pro and has come back. What Charles is trying to do in unprecedented.

Allen after his injury in July of 1993 would come back in 1994 and go one to play in 81 games between 1994-1999. He would then be out of football for almost the entire 2000 season when the Saints would add him near the end of the year in their unlikely playoff push. He then played his last 11 games in the NFL for Baltimore ironically in 2001 after Jamal Lewis went down with a season ending ACL injury. 

This is the AP article below from 1993


NFL -- Minnesota's Terry Allen Out For Season After Knee Surgery


AP
 
MINNEAPOLIS - Running back Terry Allen, who rushed for 1,201 yards and 15 touchdowns for the Minnesota Vikings last season, is out for the year after undergoing reconstructive knee surgery, the team said.

Allen was injured July 22 during practice, but doctors weren't able to determine whether he had torn a ligament in his right knee until surgery was performed.

"He did have a torn anterior cruciate ligament, which was repaired. The surgery went fine," team spokesman David Pelletier said. "He's out for the season. Usual rehabilitation is 10 to 12 months before a player is actually back on the field."

Allen had a similar operation on his left knee three years ago.


 

 
Trade: Ware for Donte Moncrief?

Standard 20 teams league

QB: Luck
RB: Anderson, Blount, Ware
WR: Brown,J. Matthews, Patton
 

 
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I don't care if West was on the field for more plays than Ware.  It doesn't matter.  I saw what I saw.  Ware was key in every part of their offense.  West was window dressing.  Gave Ware a breather and wasn't impressive at all.  The fact he had far fewer touches with equal snaps tells you everything you need to know.  They weren't calling plays for him.  West = zero threat to Ware unless there is an injury.  Reid is not an idiot.

The question is Charles, and how much time he earns back.  Reid will go with whomever is hot and helps to win games.  Likely to be a RBBC between those 2 IF Charles is 80-90% of his former self.  West is odd man out.  If Charles can't get there, it's all Ware. 

 
He missed practice today with a sore toe. I've learned that toe injuries are no joke and I'm hoping he puts in a full practice at some point this week.

 
Turf toe can be a death knell for fantasy. It's the worst because it typically isn't bad enough to sit out, but enough to crush production. See CJ Anderson last season as a prime example. This news should be extremely concerning.

 

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