Didn't mean to take Tannehill above Wilson, but that's what I get for drafting with my phone. I do like Tannehill this year with the beefed up offensive line so I'm not upset. Veldheer and Cooper should do wonders for Palmer's O-line, too. I didn't really want the 6th pick, but everything else couldn't have gone better. Got my target guy in each round so far, although I didn't have a specific target for QB1 or RB1.
QB15 Tannehill (6)
QB18 Palmer (7)
WR9 Fitzgerald (2)
WR24 Wallace (4)
WR44 Nicks (8)
RB4 Forte (1)
RB16 Mathews (3)
TE7 Olsen (5)
TE20 H. Miller (9)
I like your core team...I won last year with a similar lineup (and even had Mathews and Olsen on my squad).
Wallace and Tannehill are a boom/bust pair. I see a lot of injury risk with this team with age and history of injury throughout the roster.
I will give you that on Tannehill/Wallace and even Nicks. Beyond that, he is pretty set. At TE, Olsen has a great opportunity to put up sub-elite TE numbers and Miller is a year removed from a 71-816-8 season (and still put up 58-593-1 last year)...Forte and Mathews are JUST what you are looking for when you draft this early (two guys locked and loaded as productive starters). Personally, I would have waited until I had more RB/WR depth before going two-deep on QB and TE, but guessing on timeshare situations is a recipe for disaster this early.
Just to address the age / injury risk here:
Nicks is an easy one.
Forte is an older back for sure. Mathews is not durable, and SD wants others to help in the backfield like Woodhead and now Brown (although I doubt Brown gets much work).
At WR, all the receivers are on the wrong side of 30 or named Nicks (who I do like but is coming off injury). Not saying Fitz or Wallace are bad, just older and have injury risk as a result.
Heath Miller is far from durable, and if I'm not mistaken, he has the same bye as your other TE, so not sure what the plan was here. I wouldn't be surprised to see Pitt use him as a blocker more again this season and go 3-wide often.
Appreciate the discussion. To address the injury concerns, yeah,
Forte is older, but he's been pretty durable. I almost selected Lynch, but I see Chicago as up and coming. With the release of Bush, I could see Forte getting a LOT of TD plunges. Lacy seemed less durable than Forte, so that's why I was going to go with Lynch if I passed on Forte.
Mathews is more durable than he gets credit for. He did get injured in the playoffs and missed most of week 5 (?) with a concussion, but he carried quite a load last year and looked good doing it. If you look at his game log, his receptions and goal line looks really picked up in the second half of the season. Even with his questionable usage in the first half of the season, he still finished RB12. I think he is amazing value. I do not understand his poor valuation in all formats. If he plays 14 games, I expect him to finish RB10 or better. Woodhead was terrible between the tackles last year and Brown is not any more durable than Mathews, although I do like his talent. It was a smart acquisition for the team. He could fill in for Woodhead OR Mathews.
Fitzgerald is going to be 31 which is not old. I think it is silly how we equate RB age with WRs. We don't do it with TEs or QBs. Look at Wayne and AJ the last 2 years. Producing at elite levels beyond age 31. The only concern was the two separate hamstring injuries he suffered last year. Yet he still finished WR17 with them, so I am confident that if he stays healthy, I'm looking at a top 10 WR. Very possibly a return to top 5.
Nicks is definitely an injury risk, but not as bad as one thinks. Actually, it's almost a certainty that he'll miss 1-3 games. I'm ok with that kind of risk where I got him. Perfect WR3 IMO (for 16-team league). I'll be excited to land him and/or Amendola as my WR4/5 in 12-team leagues. Tremendous upside. With Wayne being 35, Nicks is easily the most talented guy on that roster. Yes, head and shoulders above Hilton.
Wallace is like 27. Don't know why anyone thinks he's old. He also finished WR25 last year in what was a worst case scenario. This year he's got a new OC and some much needed experience with Tannehill. But most importantly, their O-line features 4 new starters including Brandon Albert and a 1st round draft pick at the bookends. Should give Tannehill, the most sacked QB, some time to throw the ball.
Which brings me to my QBs, I love
Tannehill's potential and really think this offensive line is going to give him a chance to shine. His weapons might not stand out, but Wallace, Hartline, Gibson, and Clay are not a bad group. Moreno and Miller are both capable pass catchers. This offense could explode this year with the revamped O-line. The green OC is my only concern.
Palmer also got some help in Veldheer, possibly the best LT on the market, and last year's rookie guard Cooper who was supposed to be a stud, but missed his rookie season due to offseason injury. I think they added a guard, too. This line should be much improved. In his second year under Arians, I think Palmer will shine. Arians likes the deep ball, so an improved line should help immensely. I don't think their run game is going to be impressive, so they will need to lean on Palmer. I'm excited to watch this team. With that said, I probably reached on Palmer, maybe even by two rounds, but I really wanted him.
At TE, yeah, I botched the bye weeks badly. I got all excited that
Heath was still there and didn't even think (what were the chances? those are the only 2 teams on bye in week 12). The guy finished TE4 two years ago even though he missed week 17 that year. Last year he was coming off of an ACL injury. I think he easily finishes top 10 this year. Quite a steal. Luckily, only my RB4 has a week 12 bye. Maybe I can limp through week 12.
Olsen is a great TE. Under appreciated. Maybe this year he takes off. If not, he'll just be another solid top 10 TE. Between the two of them, I should get some nice weeks.
Not in the list above, but I added
Hill and
Stewart as my RB3 and RB4. I seriously can't believe how low Hill went. I would have reached for him several rounds if I had to, but his ADP is so low I wanted to squeeze some value. This guy will probably get 200+ carries and 8+ TDs. I can't see them giving BJGE very many carries after they drafted his replacement. Stewart obviously increases my injury risk, but he should be the starting RB next year. He's 27 while Deangelo is 31. High risk/high reward at my RB4.