Yet Another WR Breakout Article
Last year, I wrote an article that examined the so-called 3rd-year WR rule. At the end of it, I concluded that the evidence in support of this rule was pretty flimsy.
Much has happened since I wrote that article:
I got a lot of thoughtful feedback from readers questioning my methods, my conclusions, my definition of "breakout," even my definition of "3rd-year." There were some valid points there.
My database expanded. I now have about twice as much data to look at as I did a year ago.
My database management skills have also improved, so I can take a deeper look than I was capable of last year.
In light of all this, I decided to revisit the issue, and hopefully do it right this time. The main improvement will be that all the data will be laid out for you to draw your own conclusions. For example, here is a snapshot of Muhsin Muhammad's career:
Muhsin Muhammad 47 32 130 173 156
The numbers you see there are his fantasy point totals for each year of his career: 47 in his rookie year, 32 in his second year, and so on. I'm defining fantasy points in the standard way (yards/10 + TDs*6) and only including rushing and receiving stats -- no return TDs included.
Now, according to my definition of breakout -- which I'll describe shortly -- Muhammad never had a breakout season. If you disagree with that, more power to you. You won't have take my word for it. You can pick Muhsin up out of the "no breakout" pile and throw him onto 3rd-year pile or the 4th-year pile or wherever you think he belongs. Note also that clicking on Muhsin's name will take you to his page at pro-football-reference.com, where you can view his complete career.
What is a breakout?
It's not easy to pin down. Here's what I decided on. A breakout occurs when a player meets the following three conditions:
he scored at least 140 fantasy points;
it was his first year over 140 points;
he scored at least 50 points better than his previous career high.
Condition 1 is what keeps Muhsin Muhammad from being considered a 3rd-year breakout. In his 3rd year, he certainly did show vast improvement, boosting his production by nearly a hundred points. But, if that only gets you up to 941/6, I'm not that interested. You have to break out to something valuable, and I've set 140 points as the minimum to be considered valuable. No, I don't really have a good reason for choosing 140 instead of 130 or 150 or 142.6. Feel free to adjust it as you see fit.
Condition 2 is what keeps seasons like Derrick Alexander's 2000 from being considered a breakout. Here's Derrick's career:
Derrick Alexander 99 25 164 155 123 109 204
I've got him classified as a 3rd-year breakout. Yes, his 2000 season was a nice surprise, but not a breakout. Once you've broken out, you can't break out again.
Condition 3 captures the essence of the breakout: a large increase in production over anything the player had previously accomplished. Again, you may prefer 40 or 60 or 100 instead of 50, which is fine.
What is the 3rd year?
Seems like a simple enough question, but it's not. What was Marcus Robinson's 3rd year? He was drafted in 1997, but played no NFL games until 1998. Was 1998 his 2nd year or his 1st? What about Jimmy Smith?
Jimmy Smith 0 0 47 166 156 166 200 169
In 1992 and 1994, he was on an NFL roster, and playing in NFL games, but he had no catches. In 1993, he did not appear in an NFL game (note the difference in his stat line above -- the years he played show up as a 0, but the year he didn't is blank). Do you want to count 92 and 94? I do. If you're healthy and on an NFL team for a year, that's a year of experience in my book. But then there's the issue of how do whether or not to count 1993, when Smith didn't play at all. Was he hurt, or was he just not good enough to make a roster? I don't know. I'm going to define a "year" as a year in which the player played in an NFL game. So for Smith, I'm counting 92 and 94, but not 93. That makes him a 4th-year breakout.
Finally, I want to get some terminology straight. It appears that there are two distinct interpretations of the term "3rd-year breakout rule."
The strict interpretation: the 3rd year specifically is the year in which WRs are most likely to break out.
The loose interpretation: WRs are likely to break out sometime around their 3rd year.
The loose interpretation is correct, but it's essentially useless. It's roughly equivalent to saying that WRs tend to break out sometime in their 2nd, 3rd, or 4th years. That is, they break out after they've had some experience, but before they're too old. That makes just about every young WR in the league a breakout candidate. To some extent, just about every young WR in the league is a potential breakout candidate, but the purpose of a "rule" is to try to narrow down the list a bit, and the loose interpretation of the 3rd-year rule doesn't really help with that. Further, I propose that anyone talking about the loose version of the 3rd-year rule not call it the 3rd-year rule, as that tends to make people believe you're talking about the strict version.
This article is an attempt to address the strict interpretation. And make no mistake, there are lots of people out there who believe in the strict version. Every summer, there are articles at fantasy websites and posts to fantasy bulletin boards that start with a list of 3rd-year WRs, and then begin to consider factors like talent, situation, etc.
Shut up and get to the data, man!
My database contains complete career data for every WR who played anytime after 1986. In there, I found 104 WRs who have at one point in their career eclipsed the 140 fantasy point mark. 28 of those did not have a breakout season according to the criteria listed above. Another 10 "broke out" by scoring 140+ points in their rookie season. Of the remaining 66, here is how many broke out in which year:
Year How many breakouts
--------------------------
2nd 23
3rd 15
4th 13
5th 7
6th 4
7th 0
8th 4
Again, tinkering with my definition (changing the 140 point condition to 130 or 150, for example, or changing the minimum increase from 50 to 75) will change the breakdown a bit, but I tinkered quite a bit and never found a definition that would make the 3rd year the best year for a breakout.
Let's now go through and try to identify special situations where my criteria might possibly misclassify someone. First, let's check out the 2nd-year breakouts:
FINE PRINT: all data from 82 and 87 was adjusted to account for the strikes.
Anthony Miller 75 187 137 83 148 158 141 192 101 89
Terrell Owens 76 142 205 99 224
Wesley Walker 95 165 87 44 131 98 129 104 103 174 25 98 9
Dwight Clark 23 147 138 121 134 124 131 91 59
Bruce Hill 53 157 97 94 31
Isaac Bruce 45 258 176 112 55 192 202
David Boston 59 158
Germane Crowell 68 180 62
Wes Chandler 60 143 134 150 160 117 107 181 111 74 3
Richard Johnson 1 161 109
Torry Holt 117 200
Flipper Anderson 32 145 135 59 108 79 126 23 0 0
Mike Quick 22 219 159 191 148 145 75 35 20
Sterling Sharpe 85 217 148 121 225 194 221
Jerry Rice 119 260 251 201 254 228 205 192 253 249 284 187 13 170 114 122
Andre Rison 108 181 169 178 214 157 88 77 151 85 22 97
Al Toon 85 165 128 137 81 112 97 43
Charlie Brown 117 176 38 53 116 10
Kevin House 86 173 56 107 131 110 51 12
Mark Duper 0 160 179 83 196 108 69 78 111 139 118
Mark Clayton 26 247 125 178 120 197 156 59 177 80 51
Marcus Robinson 10 194 105
Antonio Freeman 17 147 198 227 143 146
There are two guys here that need to be discussed: Terrell Owens and Antonio Freeman. They need to be discussed because every (and I do mean every) article ever written about the 3rd-year WR rule cites these two as 3rd-year breakouts. But I've got them classified as 2nd-year breakouts. Owens could go either way. It looks to me like he did have two legitimate breakouts -- one in his 2nd year and then another in his 3rd. If you want to call him a 3rd-year breakout, I won't argue. Freeman, though, really does look like a 2nd-year breakout to me. Note that he missed four games in his 2nd year, so his per-game production was nearly identical in his 2nd and 3rd years.
Now the 3rd-year guys:
Keyshawn Johnson 132 126 185 166 136
Ricky Sanders 41 81 188 140 92 99 88 89 66
Floyd Turner 35 64 141 4 22 95 67 59 81
Curtis Conway 40 70 183 152 55 96 66 104
Mervyn Fernandez 24 105 163 115 75 12
Carl Pickens 39 93 179 226 190 99 133 110 24
Stanley Morgan 63 113 176 139 141 77 100 101 106 209 85 74 67 66
Eric Moulds 44 35 191 142 165
Stepone Paige 89 80 156 149 95 132 88 132 11
Rod Smith 21 36 192 165 126 224
Mark Carrier 60 127 196 105 82 93 101 83 118 117 56 42
Derrick Alexander 99 25 164 155 123 109 204
Steve Watson 8 15 203 67 145 159 122 88 23
John Taylor 15 45 168 117 155 62 126 83 52
Albert Connell 26 57 156 94
These are all pretty clear-cut cases of 3rd-year breakouts. The only ones who might be arguable are Keyshawn Johnson as a rookie breakout or Floyd Turner as not worth talking about at all.
The 4th-year breakouts:
Carlos Carson 11 24 61 187 131 111 74 146 89 15
Patrick Jeffers 0 2 45 182
Michael Haynes 47 96 45 178 141 102 133 84 103 21
Herman Moore 14 121 130 183 253 184 177 128 32 61
Haywood Jeffires 9 11 74 153 160 145 111 114 116 40
Marvin Harrison 133 122 120 239 225
Derrick Mayes 17 29 57 143 32
Michael Irvin 96 50 71 200 181 176 160 220 108 172 112 35
Robert Brooks 20 20 89 230 59 145 60 5
Amani Toomer 1 32 66 155 166
Jimmy Smith 0 0 47 166 156 166 200 169
Jake Reed 0 14 7 142 171 174 150 71 76 21
Tim McGee 35 46 105 173 80 104 59 68 22
Jake Reed, Amani Toomer, and Patrick Jeffers could be considered 3rd-year breakouts if you don't count their first years. Herman Moore could be called a 2nd if you have a low threshold for breaking out. Marvin Harrison was injured in his 3rd year, but if you pro-rate his stats to 16 games, he still wouldn't count as a 3rd-year breakout.
Here are the 5th-year and later breakouts:
Michael Westbrook 76 57 73 111 177 10
Joe Horn 4 7 26 96 183
Art Monk 98 125 53 103 181 140 134 91 129 167 113 155 87 52 76 11
Yancey Thigpen 0 0 33 79 161 36 182 67 89 41
James Jett 95 25 24 84 152 125 67 48
Terance Mathis 25 41 58 43 200 158 119 120 179 138 97
Roy Green 2 0 107 64 212 227 100 87 101 152 112 105 36 11
Henry Ellard 28 98 112 67 98 202 187 156 123 91 108 175 131 113 73 12
Michael Jackson 39 120 124 42 125 204 116 48
Drew Hill 15 54 55 9 63 171 141 135 174 142 132 135 80 38
Raghib Ismail 41 84 70 35 57 155 163 48
Brett Perriman 35 35 50 74 105 63 109 208 133 45
Ed McCaffrey 15 91 46 25 60 97 107 165 144 186
Rob Moore 105 129 99 90 137 121 126 206 128 92
Mike Renfro 47 44 53 51 48 44 70 144 51 90
Thigpen is a 3rd-year if you don't count his first two seasons. Roy Green is an odd case. I believe he was a defensive back when he first broke in, so his breakout may well have been in his 3rd year as a fulltime WR -- I don't know. Michael Jackson is a 2nd-year breakout if you have a low threshold.
Now the rookie breakouts:
Kevin Johnson 146 67
Randy Moss 234 212 234
Terry Glenn 153 55 97 139 136
Ernest Givins 145 128 130 97 158 133 146 115 58 46
Eddie Brown 155 124 79 181 117 125 95
Billy Brooks 162 90 111 116 112 113 54 104 60 142 22
Eddie Kennison 146 42 30 110 74
Joey Galloway 167 153 184 167 39 12
Cris Collinsworth 149 75 143 136 143 161 49 29
Louis Lipps 153 193 77 16 150 148 86 79 0
Joey Galloway is another guy that you'll see presented as evidence of the 3rd-year rule, but I don't buy it at all. 167, 153, 184. How is that a breakout? No one on this list could be considered a 3rd-year breakout.
Finally, the guys who, according to my criteria, never had a breakout year:
Darnay Scott 127 113 114 110 125 144
Steve Largent 93 124 165 178 143 187 68 174 189 165 162 143 76 58
James Lofton 119 121 147 177 111 182 186 141 108 118 55 35 95 155 115 18
Bert Emanuel 89 134 128 153 77 30 19
Tim Brown 114 1 45 87 111 161 185 194 168 173 155 171 180
O.J. McDuffie 19 70 131 141 100 148 64 14
Sean Dawkins 49 104 96 81 92 88 141 103
Irving Fryar 21 118 118 82 80 73 109 121 104 131 169 139 185 168 72 37 86
Vance Johnson 94 50 110 120 152 93 39 41 82 17
Qadry Ismail 29 100 78 53 0 0 147 96
Webster Slaughter 82 123 64 160 112 109 75 120 97 75 55 9
Cris Carter 20 112 128 60 126 106 161 168 239 176 185 173 202 181
Stacey Bailey 8 124 150 36 5 51 56 17 4
Eric Martin 76 98 120 152 157 121 104 134 113 37
Gary Clark 124 169 149 132 179 159 194 123 106 83 65
JT Smith 0 62 78 97 23 9 7 68 137 160 130 110 35
Andre Reed 94 115 105 139 188 145 185 116 124 187 54 142 119 110 60 16
Keenan McCardell 1 47 18 95 131 146 125 119 151
Wayne Chrebet 97 109 98 156 81 140
Jeff Graham 2 77 58 118 154 115 66 72 109 115
Muhsin Muhammad 47 32 130 173 156
Fred Barnett 121 119 143 17 143 89 74 23
Johnnie Morton 10 110 111 145 116 143 99
Daryl Turner 132 145 75 51
Tony Martin 52 55 67 53 130 158 201 126 154 133 39
Quinn Early 68 15 30 67 87 106 114 156 108 115 28 8
John Stallworth 32 66 34 125 134 166 26 142 87 10 206 124 53 64
Anthony Carter 130 112 134 163 132 150 103 83 109 28 0
Of the players on this list, I'd say the ones who might have a case as 3rd-year breakouts are Largent, McDuffie, and Muhammad. But if you count Largent as a 3rd-year, then you must count Gary Clark as a 2nd-year, and if you count McDuffie as a 3rd-year, then it might make sense to count Stacy Bailey and possibly Bert Emmanuel as 2nd-years.
Conclusions
The goal here is to provide you with enough information that you can draw your own conclusions. But if you want mine, here they are: among WRs who do break out, the 2nd year appears to be the most common year for doing so. With certain interpretations, the 2nd and 3rd years might be equally likely, but I personally don't see any way that the 3rd year is more likely, much less far more likely, as is implied by the 3rd year WR rule. If you see support for the 3rd year WR rule here, you are seeing something that I don't.
