Gatorade
Footballguy
Everything is bigger in Texas.I was told size doesn't matterWhat's the fun in saving all your iterations to yourself? Post those bad boys!
And why is your text bigger than mine?
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2025 FBG Subscriber Contest (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter TheWinz
- Start date
chocula
Footballguy
And he was most likely on the winning team that year
chocula
Footballguy
I have looked at mine several hundred times and just feel stuck this year.
Gatorade
Footballguy
One and done for meI have looked at mine several hundred times and just feel stuck this year.
chocula
Footballguy
I stole your idea and asked ChatGPT to pick a team for me. I had to clarify a few things as Chatgpt picked 1K and 1 DEF, then left me with a $3 cushion. It would be nice to enter a few AI teams to see how they do.
Had a buddy use Chatgpt to pick his team in our draft this year. The arguments chatgpt provided for the players was pretty good, but the picks kind of stunk.
QB - Sam Darnold - SEA/8 - $10
QB - Tua Tagovailoa - MIA/12 - $10
RB - Ashton Jeanty - LV/8 - $33
RB - James Cook - BUF/7 - $25
RB - Isiah Pacheco - KC/10 - $18
RB - Tank Bigsby - JAX/8 - $12
RB - Jaylen Wright - MIA/12 - $9
RB - Kendre Miller - NO/11 - $4
WR - Rome Odunze - CHI/5 - $15
WR - Jayden Reed - GB/5 - $12
WR - Christian Kirk - HOU/6 - $10
WR - Marvin Mims Jr. - DEN/12 - $9
WR - Xavier Legette - CAR/14 - $8
WR - Rashid Shaheed - NO/11 - $8
WR - Joshua Palmer - BUF/7 - $7
TE - T.J. Hockenson - MIN/6 - $18
TE - Chig Okonkwo - TEN/10 - $8
PK - Jake Elliott - PHI/9 - $6
PK - Harrison Butker - KC/10 - $5
PK - Jake Moody - SF/14 - $4
TD - Baltimore Ravens - BAL/7 - $7
TD - Houston Texans - HOU/6 - $6
TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/10 - $6
Total value: 250
You could roster 5 D's for $3 each and another one for $4 for the same price. And the 6 D's will outscore the 3 D's over 99% of the time. I have an excel spreadsheet going back 15 contest years proving this. You would literally have to pick the worst 6 D's, and have multiple bye week conflicts to not outscore the expensive ones. And the expensive ones would all have to hit big too, and we know this isn't the case. Last year, the 5 most expensive D's were all $7 (BAL, CLE, DAL, NYJ, and SF). They finished as D5, D16, D22, D25, and D26. And the sad part is, they were all on between 633 to 1298 rosters. The Broncos outscored all of them, cost only $3, and were on only 591 rosters. That's like having a $13 QB option and he finishes QB1, but is on nobodies roster.Chat GPT apparently has not seen statistics from @TheWinz that prove that expensive defenses in this contest are never worth their price.
Some other fun facts about the contest D history (my spreadsheet only goes back to 2010)
- In 2015, they offered SEA for $12 when they had 7 others priced at $3. 668 people still took them, but only 338 opted for WAS at $3. WAS outscored SEA by 7 points
- The last time they offered a $2 D was 2021. DAL had only a 7% ownership, and finished in 1st, by 42 points, the largest ever gap from 1st to 2nd. Guess how much the DAL D was?
- 2019 was the last time a D was double digits. CHI was offered for $10, and finished D26. 1229 rosters fell victim.
- 2018 also saw a single $10 D with JAC. They also finished D26. 1790 rosters fell victim.
- 2017's highest priced D was DEN at $9. They finished D24. There were 357 different combos you could've rostered for the same $9, and every one of them would've outscored DEN.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
That is like half my current team
3 of the 7 have already lost their jobs - Caden Davis, Matthew Wright, and Dustin Hopkins. Sure, they may all find a new team, but they should all be avoided. That only leaves 4 options:
Cairo Santos - week 5 bye - Leg strength lacking, but 90% accuracy last 5 yrs, including 21 of 27 from 50+. Can lose job if team wants 70-yard attempts, but that should've already happened.
Joey Slye - week 10 bye - Journeyman with strong leg who keeps his job. Only year he didn't play whole season was when he was a fill-in for Fairbairn in 2021. Just made it from 63 vs MIN.
Blake Grupe - week 11 bye - I have to assume the Saints are happy with him, so his job should be safe. He increased from 81 to 87%, and has made 6 from 50+ in each of his 2 years.
Graham Gano - week 14 bye - Don't trust him. Missed games in each of the last 2 seasons, and not just a few. 7 games last year, and 9 in 2023. He is 38 years old, but his right leg is 65.
Many folks like to roster 3 cheapies, and if you want to shop only from the $3 bin, my money is on the law firm of Santos, Slye, and Grupe.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Atm, I have 2 $4 kickers and Grupe. In theory (projections here and elsewhere), I should be rolling with Slye but I've got this notion in my head that NO will struggle getting into the end zone but between Kamara and Hill they can get close enough for field goal attempts....and Cam Ward and Pollard will be able to get into the end zone. Short version: I think I'm better at projecting kickers than the experts...never a good strategy but I'm not very bright. Did I mention that Grupe is indoors?
Puppies
Footballguy
Another reason to avoid Gano is.... the team can save about $3 million in cap space by cutting him. So don't be terribly surprised if he's gone tomorrow at noon when waivers clear. Matthew Wright and Ben Sauls (PIT) were cut, and likely to be signed by other teams. Sauls was amazing in camp at Pittsburgh, making lots of kicks over 50 yards. He was a shoe-in if not for the Steelers already having Boswell, who also had a good camp. So even if Gano stays, he's probably on thin ice if me makes a couple screwups during the season.
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This made me think - what is the strongest correlation between a kicker scoring well, and a team's offense? First, you have to attempt lots of FG's, because in this contest, your kicker scores about 70-80% of their points from FG's (I took a random sampling of 10 kickers last year). Here are the numbers from last year:
Top 10 yardage teams
BAL (7224) - 30 FG attempts
DET (6962) - 29 FG attempts
TB (6793) - 32 FG attempts
SF (6397) - 43 FG attempts
GB (6303) - 38 FG attempts
ATL (6287) - 41 FG attempts
WAS (6284) - 42 FG attempts
PHI (6242) - 36 FG attempts
CIN (6214) - 33 FG attempts
BUF (6105) - 29 FG attempts
Average - 35.3 FG attempts
Middle 12 yardage teams
ARI (6090) - 38 FG attempts
MIN (5898) - 42 FG attempts
IND (5692) - 37 FG attempts
SEA (5647) - 30 FG attempts
LAR (5633) - 34 FG attempts
KC (5570) - 37 FG attempts
DAL (5567) - 47 FG attempts
MIA (5532) - 41 FG attempts
DEN (5518) - 34 FG attempts
LAC (5511) - 42 FG attempts
NO (5442) - 31 FG attempts
HOU (5435) - 42 FG attempts - corrected
Average - 37.9 FG attempts
Bottom 10 yardage teams
PIT (5430) - 44 FG attempts
NYJ (5275) - 28 FG attempts
JAC (5206) - 29 FG attempts
TEN (5172) - 27 FG attempts
LV (5154) - 40 FG attempts
CLE (5114) - 27 FG attempts
CAR (5066) - 26 FG attempts
NYG (5011) - 28 FG attempts
NE (4964) - 33 FG attempts
CHI (4820) - 25 FG attempts
Average - 30.7 attempts
Seems like the kickers with the most attempts come from the middle and top groups, while only PIT and LV were above the league average in the bottom 10. Next, let's look at team scoring...
Top 10 scoring teams
DET (564) - 29 FG attempts
BUF (525) - 29 FG attempts
BAL (518) - 30 FG attempts
TB (502) - 32 FG attempts
WAS (485) - 42 FG attempts
CIN (472) - 33 FG attempts
PHI (463) - 36 FG attempts
GB (460) - 38 FG attempts
MIN (432) - 42 FG attempts
DEN (425) - 34 FG attempts
Average - 34.5 attempts
Middle 12 scoring teams
LAC (402) - 42 FG attempts
ARI (400) - 38 FG attempts
SF (389) - 43 FG attempts
ATL (389) - 41 FG attempts
KC (385) - 37 FG attempts
PIT (380) - 44 FG attempts
IND (377) - 37 FG attempts
SEA (375) - 30 FG attempts
HOU (372) - 42 FG attempts - corrected
LAR (367) - 34 FG attempts
DAL (350) - 47 FG attempts
MIA (345) - 41 FG attempts
Average - 39.7 attempts
Bottom 10 scoring teams
CAR (341) - 26 FG attempts
NO (338) - 31 FG attempts
NYJ (338) - 28 FG attempts
JAC (320) - 29 FG attempts
TEN (311) - 27 FG attempts
CHI (310) - 25 FG attempts
LV (309) - 40 FG attempts
NE (289) - 33 FG attempts
NYG (273) - 28 FG attempts
CLE (258) - 27 FG attempts
Average - 29.4 attempts
With the league average being 34.8 FG attempts, once again only LV from the bottom 10 is above the average. And once again, the middle 12 lead by a decent amount, even over the top 10.
Lastly, in regards to EP's, only 3 kickers attempted at least 60 - Bates (67), Bass (64), and Tucker (62). All are known to have long legs, but none were even top 5 in this contest, because they just didn't attempt enough FG's. Moral of the story to me is - be a good offense, but not too good. I could dive into other metrics, but don't feel like it right now.
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Army Eye
Footballguy
With the league average being 34.8 FG attempts, once again only LV from the bottom 10 is above the average. And once again, the middle 12 lead by a decent amount, even over the top 10.
Lastly, in regards to EP's, only 3 kickers attempted at least 60 - Bates (67), Bass (64), and Tucker (62). All are known to have long legs, but none were even top 5 in this contest, because they just didn't attempt enough FG's. Moral of the story to me is - be a good offense, but not too good. I could dive into other metrics, but don't feel like it right now.
That's great stuff!
I would have confidently guessed that the top offenses had the most FG attempts, end of story. Apparently not the case!
Have I been living a lie all my life, or is this the result of recent trends? With kickers being able to get more distance than ever, AND better field position on touchbacks now, teams really don't have to do that much to get into FG range these days. So it starts to make sense that mid offenses can get a lot of field goals.
joey
Footballguy
I think this kicker research in relation to offensive performance is worthy of its own thread imho.This made me think - what is the strongest correlation between a kicker scoring well, and a team's offense? First, you have to attempt lots of FG's, because in this contest, your kicker scores about 70-80% of their points from FG's (I took a random sampling of 10 kickers last year). Here are the numbers from last year:
Top 10 yardage teams
BAL (7224) - 30 FG attempts
DET (6962) - 29 FG attempts
TB (6793) - 32 FG attempts
SF (6397) - 43 FG attempts
GB (6303) - 38 FG attempts
ATL (6287) - 41 FG attempts
WAS (6284) - 42 FG attempts
PHI (6242) - 36 FG attempts
CIN (6214) - 33 FG attempts
BUF (6105) - 29 FG attempts
Average - 35.3 FG attempts
Middle 12 yardage teams
ARI (6090) - 38 FG attempts
MIN (5898) - 42 FG attempts
IND (5692) - 37 FG attempts
SEA (5647) - 30 FG attempts
LAR (5633) - 34 FG attempts
KC (5570) - 37 FG attempts
DAL (5567) - 47 FG attempts
MIA (5532) - 41 FG attempts
DEN (5518) - 34 FG attempts
LAC (5511) - 42 FG attempts
NO (5442) - 31 FG attempts
HOU (5435) - 42 FG attempts - corrected
Average - 37.9 FG attempts
Bottom 10 yardage teams
PIT (5430) - 44 FG attempts
NYJ (5275) - 28 FG attempts
JAC (5206) - 29 FG attempts
TEN (5172) - 27 FG attempts
LV (5154) - 40 FG attempts
CLE (5114) - 27 FG attempts
CAR (5066) - 26 FG attempts
NYG (5011) - 28 FG attempts
NE (4964) - 33 FG attempts
CHI (4820) - 25 FG attempts
Average - 30.7 attempts
Seems like the kickers with the most attempts come from the middle and top groups, while only PIT and LV were above the league average in the bottom 10. Next, let's look at team scoring...
Top 10 scoring teams
DET (564) - 29 FG attempts
BUF (525) - 29 FG attempts
BAL (518) - 30 FG attempts
TB (502) - 32 FG attempts
WAS (485) - 42 FG attempts
CIN (472) - 33 FG attempts
PHI (463) - 36 FG attempts
GB (460) - 38 FG attempts
MIN (432) - 42 FG attempts
DEN (425) - 34 FG attempts
Average - 34.5 attempts
Middle 12 scoring teams
LAC (402) - 42 FG attempts
ARI (400) - 38 FG attempts
SF (389) - 43 FG attempts
ATL (389) - 41 FG attempts
KC (385) - 37 FG attempts
PIT (380) - 44 FG attempts
IND (377) - 37 FG attempts
SEA (375) - 30 FG attempts
HOU (372) - 42 FG attempts - corrected
LAR (367) - 34 FG attempts
DAL (350) - 47 FG attempts
MIA (345) - 41 FG attempts
Average - 39.7 attempts
Bottom 10 scoring teams
CAR (341) - 26 FG attempts
NO (338) - 31 FG attempts
NYJ (338) - 28 FG attempts
JAC (320) - 29 FG attempts
TEN (311) - 27 FG attempts
CHI (310) - 25 FG attempts
LV (309) - 40 FG attempts
NE (289) - 33 FG attempts
NYG (273) - 28 FG attempts
CLE (258) - 27 FG attempts
Average - 29.4 attempts
With the league average being 34.8 FG attempts, once again only LV from the bottom 10 is above the average. And once again, the middle 12 lead by a decent amount, even over the top 10.
Lastly, in regards to EP's, only 3 kickers attempted at least 60 - Bates (67), Bass (64), and Tucker (62). All are known to have long legs, but none were even top 5 in this contest, because they just didn't attempt enough FG's. Moral of the story to me is - be a good offense, but not too good. I could dive into other metrics, but don't feel like it right now.
I edited the post above, because I had HOU's attempts wrong. It only made the middle 12 even stronger.
Yeah, the top 3 teams in terms of yardage were all under league average for FG attempts, and so were the top 3 scoring teams. But we can't blame it on the running QB's, because on this list was Goff and Mayfield (the other 2 were Allen and Jackson). Only 10 teams had 40+ FG attempts, and 7 of those teams came from the middle 12 scoring offenses.
The posts are way too long though, but if you take the time to read through, perhaps some good can come of it?
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
The posts are way too long though, but if you take the time to read through, perhaps some good can come of it?
Good analysis above. I suspect the middle of the pack wins because the top offenses are more likely to kick extra points than field goals. As such, you should be modelling total kicker production and not unintentionally discounting kickers on good offenses in the kicker optimization process
You could repeat your analysis as such:
(a) total attempts (field goal, extra point, and 2 point) as the dependent variable
(b) total successful total attempts (as in (a) ) as the dependent variable
Choose the better correlation. Scrub the data to apply a discount factor for, or ignore, successful 2 point attempts in the kicker scoring versus total scoring correlation
Finally, I'm thinking that if you comparing field goal attempts with total attempts and normalize for red zone appearances you will find this percentage falls into 3 groups, reflecting teams that are "pro field goal", "neutral" and "anti-field goal".
Next we should consider the type of grass, cleats and dry skin foot moisturizer used and their influence on completion percentage. That's all for now.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Wasn't Boswell #1 last year when Wilson was QB. PIT also had a top 3 toughest schedule. Wilson now moved to the Giants and guess who has the toughest overall schedule this year. Gano might be your guy.This made me think - what is the strongest correlation between a kicker scoring well, and a team's offense? First, you have to attempt lots of FG's, because in this contest, your kicker scores about 70-80% of their points from FG's (I took a random sampling of 10 kickers last year). Here are the numbers from last year:
Top 10 yardage teams
BAL (7224) - 30 FG attempts
DET (6962) - 29 FG attempts
TB (6793) - 32 FG attempts
SF (6397) - 43 FG attempts
GB (6303) - 38 FG attempts
ATL (6287) - 41 FG attempts
WAS (6284) - 42 FG attempts
PHI (6242) - 36 FG attempts
CIN (6214) - 33 FG attempts
BUF (6105) - 29 FG attempts
Average - 35.3 FG attempts
Middle 12 yardage teams
ARI (6090) - 38 FG attempts
MIN (5898) - 42 FG attempts
IND (5692) - 37 FG attempts
SEA (5647) - 30 FG attempts
LAR (5633) - 34 FG attempts
KC (5570) - 37 FG attempts
DAL (5567) - 47 FG attempts
MIA (5532) - 41 FG attempts
DEN (5518) - 34 FG attempts
LAC (5511) - 42 FG attempts
NO (5442) - 31 FG attempts
HOU (5435) - 42 FG attempts - corrected
Average - 37.9 FG attempts
Bottom 10 yardage teams
PIT (5430) - 44 FG attempts
NYJ (5275) - 28 FG attempts
JAC (5206) - 29 FG attempts
TEN (5172) - 27 FG attempts
LV (5154) - 40 FG attempts
CLE (5114) - 27 FG attempts
CAR (5066) - 26 FG attempts
NYG (5011) - 28 FG attempts
NE (4964) - 33 FG attempts
CHI (4820) - 25 FG attempts
Average - 30.7 attempts
Seems like the kickers with the most attempts come from the middle and top groups, while only PIT and LV were above the league average in the bottom 10. Next, let's look at team scoring...
Top 10 scoring teams
DET (564) - 29 FG attempts
BUF (525) - 29 FG attempts
BAL (518) - 30 FG attempts
TB (502) - 32 FG attempts
WAS (485) - 42 FG attempts
CIN (472) - 33 FG attempts
PHI (463) - 36 FG attempts
GB (460) - 38 FG attempts
MIN (432) - 42 FG attempts
DEN (425) - 34 FG attempts
Average - 34.5 attempts
Middle 12 scoring teams
LAC (402) - 42 FG attempts
ARI (400) - 38 FG attempts
SF (389) - 43 FG attempts
ATL (389) - 41 FG attempts
KC (385) - 37 FG attempts
PIT (380) - 44 FG attempts
IND (377) - 37 FG attempts
SEA (375) - 30 FG attempts
HOU (372) - 42 FG attempts - corrected
LAR (367) - 34 FG attempts
DAL (350) - 47 FG attempts
MIA (345) - 41 FG attempts
Average - 39.7 attempts
Bottom 10 scoring teams
CAR (341) - 26 FG attempts
NO (338) - 31 FG attempts
NYJ (338) - 28 FG attempts
JAC (320) - 29 FG attempts
TEN (311) - 27 FG attempts
CHI (310) - 25 FG attempts
LV (309) - 40 FG attempts
NE (289) - 33 FG attempts
NYG (273) - 28 FG attempts
CLE (258) - 27 FG attempts
Average - 29.4 attempts
With the league average being 34.8 FG attempts, once again only LV from the bottom 10 is above the average. And once again, the middle 12 lead by a decent amount, even over the top 10.
Lastly, in regards to EP's, only 3 kickers attempted at least 60 - Bates (67), Bass (64), and Tucker (62). All are known to have long legs, but none were even top 5 in this contest, because they just didn't attempt enough FG's. Moral of the story to me is - be a good offense, but not too good. I could dive into other metrics, but don't feel like it right now.
Where do you pull this data from? Is this from one of the FootballGuys tools? Or is this just data you have collected over the years? This is excellent information!This made me think - what is the strongest correlation between a kicker scoring well, and a team's offense? First, you have to attempt lots of FG's, because in this contest, your kicker scores about 70-80% of their points from FG's (I took a random sampling of 10 kickers last year). Here are the numbers from last year:
Top 10 yardage teams
BAL (7224) - 30 FG attempts
DET (6962) - 29 FG attempts
TB (6793) - 32 FG attempts
SF (6397) - 43 FG attempts
GB (6303) - 38 FG attempts
ATL (6287) - 41 FG attempts
WAS (6284) - 42 FG attempts
PHI (6242) - 36 FG attempts
CIN (6214) - 33 FG attempts
BUF (6105) - 29 FG attempts
Average - 35.3 FG attempts
Middle 12 yardage teams
ARI (6090) - 38 FG attempts
MIN (5898) - 42 FG attempts
IND (5692) - 37 FG attempts
SEA (5647) - 30 FG attempts
LAR (5633) - 34 FG attempts
KC (5570) - 37 FG attempts
DAL (5567) - 47 FG attempts
MIA (5532) - 41 FG attempts
DEN (5518) - 34 FG attempts
LAC (5511) - 42 FG attempts
NO (5442) - 31 FG attempts
HOU (5435) - 42 FG attempts - corrected
Average - 37.9 FG attempts
Bottom 10 yardage teams
PIT (5430) - 44 FG attempts
NYJ (5275) - 28 FG attempts
JAC (5206) - 29 FG attempts
TEN (5172) - 27 FG attempts
LV (5154) - 40 FG attempts
CLE (5114) - 27 FG attempts
CAR (5066) - 26 FG attempts
NYG (5011) - 28 FG attempts
NE (4964) - 33 FG attempts
CHI (4820) - 25 FG attempts
Average - 30.7 attempts
Seems like the kickers with the most attempts come from the middle and top groups, while only PIT and LV were above the league average in the bottom 10. Next, let's look at team scoring...
Top 10 scoring teams
DET (564) - 29 FG attempts
BUF (525) - 29 FG attempts
BAL (518) - 30 FG attempts
TB (502) - 32 FG attempts
WAS (485) - 42 FG attempts
CIN (472) - 33 FG attempts
PHI (463) - 36 FG attempts
GB (460) - 38 FG attempts
MIN (432) - 42 FG attempts
DEN (425) - 34 FG attempts
Average - 34.5 attempts
Middle 12 scoring teams
LAC (402) - 42 FG attempts
ARI (400) - 38 FG attempts
SF (389) - 43 FG attempts
ATL (389) - 41 FG attempts
KC (385) - 37 FG attempts
PIT (380) - 44 FG attempts
IND (377) - 37 FG attempts
SEA (375) - 30 FG attempts
HOU (372) - 42 FG attempts - corrected
LAR (367) - 34 FG attempts
DAL (350) - 47 FG attempts
MIA (345) - 41 FG attempts
Average - 39.7 attempts
Bottom 10 scoring teams
CAR (341) - 26 FG attempts
NO (338) - 31 FG attempts
NYJ (338) - 28 FG attempts
JAC (320) - 29 FG attempts
TEN (311) - 27 FG attempts
CHI (310) - 25 FG attempts
LV (309) - 40 FG attempts
NE (289) - 33 FG attempts
NYG (273) - 28 FG attempts
CLE (258) - 27 FG attempts
Average - 29.4 attempts
With the league average being 34.8 FG attempts, once again only LV from the bottom 10 is above the average. And once again, the middle 12 lead by a decent amount, even over the top 10.
Lastly, in regards to EP's, only 3 kickers attempted at least 60 - Bates (67), Bass (64), and Tucker (62). All are known to have long legs, but none were even top 5 in this contest, because they just didn't attempt enough FG's. Moral of the story to me is - be a good offense, but not too good. I could dive into other metrics, but don't feel like it right now.
2024 NFL Standings & Team Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Check out the 2024 NFL Standings & Team Stats including AFC and NFC results and standings on Pro-football-reference.com
www.pro-football-reference.com
I also love using FBG's Player stats, but this data was easier compiled from PFR
joey
Footballguy
Oh no. You’re misunderstanding my point. Im not saying it’s too long for this contest thread. I’m saying that this analysis is so awesome that it deserves its own thread so folks outside of this contest thread can read and respond.The posts are way too long though, but if you take the time to read through, perhaps some good can come of it?
I guess it could just go directly into the kicker thread. I enjoy crunching numbers, and even though the turnover on the kicker leader board changes alot from year to year, I think it can be explained quite a bit. For example, CHI was last in the league in FG attempts, but why was that? In a nutshell, because they sucked. They were dead last in yardage, and 28th in scoring. They couldn't get into FG range and were 2nd in the league in punts, behind only CLE, who were 30th in FG attempts. Sure, Cairo Santos may not have the strongest leg, but he still went 8 of 9 from 50+. The year prior, he attempted 13 more FG's. Why? Because CHI wasn't at the bottom in scoring or yardage. They were 18th and 20th respectively (and 19th in punts), which puts them in the middle group for both categories, and that tends to be the sweet spot for lots of FG attempts.Oh no. You’re misunderstanding my point. Im not saying it’s too long for this contest thread. I’m saying that this analysis is so awesome that it deserves its own thread so folks outside of this contest thread can read and respond.The posts are way too long though, but if you take the time to read through, perhaps some good can come of it?
Yes, I am rostering Cairo Santos this year
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
:GeneHackmanVoice: "My rooster is on the floor!"
Your team has been successfully entered .
QB - Josh Allen - BUF/7 - $26
QB - Bryce Young - CAR/14 - $12
QB - Jalen Milroe - SEA/8 - $5
RB - Josh Jacobs - GB/5 - $29
RB - TreVeyon Henderson - NE/14 - $18
RB - Trey Benson - ARI/8 - $10
RB - Jacory Croskey-Merritt - WAS/12 - $6
RB - Woody Marks - HOU/6 - $5
WR - Tee Higgins - CIN/10 - $25
WR - Jaxon Smith-Njigba - SEA/8 - $23
WR - Ricky Pearsall - SF/14 - $11
WR - Emeka Egbuka - TB/9 - $10
WR - Malik Washington - MIA/12 - $5
WR - Devaughn Vele - NO/11 - $4
WR - Troy Franklin - DEN/12 - $3
WR - Elic Ayomanor - TEN/10 - $2
TE - Tyler Warren - IND/11 - $14
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/9 - $11
TE - Terrance Ferguson - LAR/8 - $5
TE - Dawson Knox - BUF/7 - $3
PK - Jake Moody - SF/14 - $4
PK - Tyler Loop - BAL/7 - $4
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/5 - $4
TD - Los Angeles Chargers - LAC/12 - $4
TD - Kansas City Chiefs - KC/10 - $4
TD - New Orleans Saints - NO/11 - $3
Total value: 250
Rookie edition this year. I have nine (NINE!!) rookies, including one at each position group.
What could possibly go wrong, lol.
Good luck to everyone.
Your team has been successfully entered .
QB - Josh Allen - BUF/7 - $26
QB - Bryce Young - CAR/14 - $12
QB - Jalen Milroe - SEA/8 - $5
RB - Josh Jacobs - GB/5 - $29
RB - TreVeyon Henderson - NE/14 - $18
RB - Trey Benson - ARI/8 - $10
RB - Jacory Croskey-Merritt - WAS/12 - $6
RB - Woody Marks - HOU/6 - $5
WR - Tee Higgins - CIN/10 - $25
WR - Jaxon Smith-Njigba - SEA/8 - $23
WR - Ricky Pearsall - SF/14 - $11
WR - Emeka Egbuka - TB/9 - $10
WR - Malik Washington - MIA/12 - $5
WR - Devaughn Vele - NO/11 - $4
WR - Troy Franklin - DEN/12 - $3
WR - Elic Ayomanor - TEN/10 - $2
TE - Tyler Warren - IND/11 - $14
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/9 - $11
TE - Terrance Ferguson - LAR/8 - $5
TE - Dawson Knox - BUF/7 - $3
PK - Jake Moody - SF/14 - $4
PK - Tyler Loop - BAL/7 - $4
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/5 - $4
TD - Los Angeles Chargers - LAC/12 - $4
TD - Kansas City Chiefs - KC/10 - $4
TD - New Orleans Saints - NO/11 - $3
Total value: 250
Rookie edition this year. I have nine (NINE!!) rookies, including one at each position group.
What could possibly go wrong, lol.
Good luck to everyone.
QB - With a stud and a bye week filler, is there a need for Milroe? My money says you would never use him, even if he did overtake Darnold.
RB - Kinda thin, but I like the options
WR - Nice depth and use of byes
TE - If Goedert stays healthy, he will be big value
K - Three
D - Three
joey
Footballguy
currently at 22 players. Has only changed a little here and there due to some injuries, etc.
my final will be very close to this..
QB - Jared Goff - DET/8 - $16
QB - C.J. Stroud - HOU/6 - $14
RB - D'Andre Swift - CHI/5 - $20
RB - RJ Harvey - DEN/12 - $19
RB - Isiah Pacheco - KC/10 - $18
RB - Tyrone Tracy Jr. - NYG/14 - $16
RB - Tank Bigsby - JAX/8 - $12
RB - Jacory Croskey-Merritt - WAS/12 - $6
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/12 - $19
WR - Mike Evans - TB/9 - $18
WR - Matthew Golden - GB/5 - $12
WR - Ricky Pearsall - SF/14 - $11
WR - Emeka Egbuka - TB/9 - $10
WR - Dont'e Thornton Jr. - LV/8 - $4
TE - Evan Engram - DEN/12 - $16
TE - Tucker Kraft - GB/5 - $15
TE - Mason Taylor - NYJ/9 - $7
PK - Blake Grupe - NO/11 - $3
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/5 - $3
PK - Joey Slye - TEN/10 - $3
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/9 - $4
TD - Kansas City Chiefs - KC/10 - $4
my final will be very close to this..
QB - Jared Goff - DET/8 - $16
QB - C.J. Stroud - HOU/6 - $14
RB - D'Andre Swift - CHI/5 - $20
RB - RJ Harvey - DEN/12 - $19
RB - Isiah Pacheco - KC/10 - $18
RB - Tyrone Tracy Jr. - NYG/14 - $16
RB - Tank Bigsby - JAX/8 - $12
RB - Jacory Croskey-Merritt - WAS/12 - $6
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/12 - $19
WR - Mike Evans - TB/9 - $18
WR - Matthew Golden - GB/5 - $12
WR - Ricky Pearsall - SF/14 - $11
WR - Emeka Egbuka - TB/9 - $10
WR - Dont'e Thornton Jr. - LV/8 - $4
TE - Evan Engram - DEN/12 - $16
TE - Tucker Kraft - GB/5 - $15
TE - Mason Taylor - NYJ/9 - $7
PK - Blake Grupe - NO/11 - $3
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/5 - $3
PK - Joey Slye - TEN/10 - $3
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/9 - $4
TD - Kansas City Chiefs - KC/10 - $4
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Yeah, get it on the QBs. Just always have it in my head to go with 3. I like Young this year but that late Bye is worrying. So grabbing a cheap backup who may work in as the starter by week 14. I wanted Dart actually but he also has the week 14 bye, negating the intent.
Great point though.
I don't think Young's bye matters much, because you will be using Allen's score that week. Just for reference, if you had rostered both Allen and Young last year, you would've used Young only twice in 17 weeks, and one was on Allen's bye. That's what you hope for when you roster a stud and a dud. And if your stud goes down, you're toast anyways, so rostering a 3rd like Milroe when you took a top dog like Allen seems to be useless. Because, let's face it, if you ever have to use Milroe, you're dead meat!
chocula
Footballguy
Don't tell me, tell ChatgptYou could roster 5 D's for $3 each and another one for $4 for the same price. And the 6 D's will outscore the 3 D's over 99% of the time. I have an excel spreadsheet going back 15 contest years proving this. You would literally have to pick the worst 6 D's, and have multiple bye week conflicts to not outscore the expensive ones. And the expensive ones would all have to hit big too, and we know this isn't the case. Last year, the 5 most expensive D's were all $7 (BAL, CLE, DAL, NYJ, and SF). They finished as D5, D16, D22, D25, and D26. And the sad part is, they were all on between 633 to 1298 rosters. The Broncos outscored all of them, cost only $3, and were on only 591 rosters. That's like having a $13 QB option and he finishes QB1, but is on nobodies roster.Chat GPT apparently has not seen statistics from @TheWinz that prove that expensive defenses in this contest are never worth their price.
Some other fun facts about the contest D history (my spreadsheet only goes back to 2010)
- In 2015, they offered SEA for $12 when they had 7 others priced at $3. 668 people still took them, but only 338 opted for WAS at $3. WAS outscored SEA by 7 points
- The last time they offered a $2 D was 2021. DAL had only a 7% ownership, and finished in 1st, by 42 points, the largest ever gap from 1st to 2nd. Guess how much the DAL D was?
- 2019 was the last time a D was double digits. CHI was offered for $10, and finished D26. 1229 rosters fell victim.
- 2018 also saw a single $10 D with JAC. They also finished D26. 1790 rosters fell victim.
- 2017's highest priced D was DEN at $9. They finished D24. There were 357 different combos you could've rostered for the same $9, and every one of them would've outscored DEN.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
final iteration and the most players I've ever carried into this thing with 29
QB - Josh Allen - BUF/7 - $26
QB - Cam Ward - TEN/10 - $11
RB - Derrick Henry - BAL/7 - $31
RB - RJ Harvey - DEN/12 - $19
RB - Jaydon Blue - DAL/10 - $11
RB - Bhayshul Tuten - JAX/8 - $8
RB - Jacory Croskey-Merritt - WAS/12 - $6
RB - Woody Marks - HOU/6 - $5
RB - Tahj Brooks - CIN/10 - $4
RB - Kyle Monangai - CHI/5 - $4
WR - DK Metcalf - PIT/5 - $17
WR - Keon Coleman - BUF/7 - $12
WR - Emeka Egbuka - TB/9 - $10
WR - Marvin Mims Jr. - DEN/12 - $9
WR - Joshua Palmer - BUF/7 - $7
WR - Dont'e Thornton Jr. - LV/8 - $4
WR - Roman Wilson - PIT/5 - $4
WR - Troy Franklin - DEN/12 - $3
WR - Elic Ayomanor - TEN/10 - $2
WR - Jaylin Lane - WAS/12 - $2
TE - Evan Engram - DEN/12 - $16
TE - Dalton Kincaid - BUF/7 - $11
TE - Mason Taylor - NYJ/9 - $7
PK - Younghoe Koo - ATL/5 - $4
PK - Chad Ryland - ARI/8 - $4
PK - Evan McPherson - CIN/10 - $4
TD - New Orleans Saints - NO/11 - $3
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/5 - $3
TD - Jacksonville Jaguars - JAX/8 - $3
QB - Josh Allen - BUF/7 - $26
QB - Cam Ward - TEN/10 - $11
RB - Derrick Henry - BAL/7 - $31
RB - RJ Harvey - DEN/12 - $19
RB - Jaydon Blue - DAL/10 - $11
RB - Bhayshul Tuten - JAX/8 - $8
RB - Jacory Croskey-Merritt - WAS/12 - $6
RB - Woody Marks - HOU/6 - $5
RB - Tahj Brooks - CIN/10 - $4
RB - Kyle Monangai - CHI/5 - $4
WR - DK Metcalf - PIT/5 - $17
WR - Keon Coleman - BUF/7 - $12
WR - Emeka Egbuka - TB/9 - $10
WR - Marvin Mims Jr. - DEN/12 - $9
WR - Joshua Palmer - BUF/7 - $7
WR - Dont'e Thornton Jr. - LV/8 - $4
WR - Roman Wilson - PIT/5 - $4
WR - Troy Franklin - DEN/12 - $3
WR - Elic Ayomanor - TEN/10 - $2
WR - Jaylin Lane - WAS/12 - $2
TE - Evan Engram - DEN/12 - $16
TE - Dalton Kincaid - BUF/7 - $11
TE - Mason Taylor - NYJ/9 - $7
PK - Younghoe Koo - ATL/5 - $4
PK - Chad Ryland - ARI/8 - $4
PK - Evan McPherson - CIN/10 - $4
TD - New Orleans Saints - NO/11 - $3
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/5 - $3
TD - Jacksonville Jaguars - JAX/8 - $3
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
What if Young is your QB1?
Just for fun, tried to make a team with the most expensive option at QB, RB, WR, and TE. Actually don't hate it.
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/7 - $27
QB - Sam Darnold - SEA/8 - $10
RB - Bijan Robinson - ATL/5 - $37
RB - Isiah Pacheco - KC/10 - $18
RB - Jacory Croskey-Merritt - WAS/12 - $6
RB - Woody Marks - HOU/6 - $5
WR - Ja'Marr Chase - CIN/10 - $38
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/12 - $19
WR - Emeka Egbuka - TB/9 - $10
WR - Keenan Allen - LAC/12 - $5
WR - Dont'e Thornton Jr. - LV/8 - $4
WR - Jalen Coker - CAR/14 - $3
WR - Jahan Dotson - PHI/9 - $2
TE - Brock Bowers - LV/8 - $32
TE - Tyler Warren - IND/11 - $14
TE - Mason Taylor - NYJ/9 - $7
PK - Evan McPherson - CIN/10 - $4
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/5 - $3
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/5 - $3
TD - Jacksonville Jaguars - JAX/8 - $3
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/7 - $27
QB - Sam Darnold - SEA/8 - $10
RB - Bijan Robinson - ATL/5 - $37
RB - Isiah Pacheco - KC/10 - $18
RB - Jacory Croskey-Merritt - WAS/12 - $6
RB - Woody Marks - HOU/6 - $5
WR - Ja'Marr Chase - CIN/10 - $38
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/12 - $19
WR - Emeka Egbuka - TB/9 - $10
WR - Keenan Allen - LAC/12 - $5
WR - Dont'e Thornton Jr. - LV/8 - $4
WR - Jalen Coker - CAR/14 - $3
WR - Jahan Dotson - PHI/9 - $2
TE - Brock Bowers - LV/8 - $32
TE - Tyler Warren - IND/11 - $14
TE - Mason Taylor - NYJ/9 - $7
PK - Evan McPherson - CIN/10 - $4
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/5 - $3
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/5 - $3
TD - Jacksonville Jaguars - JAX/8 - $3
apalmer
Footballguy
The other one was James Conner for a couple bucks the year L. Bell held out. Not sure what his starting percentage was, but by the last month of the contest he was on like 90+% of the surviving teams.
Buy another subscription so you can submit 2 teams!
joey
Footballguy
On man….i actually love this idea. But I’m sure the stats say it’s a bad idea for best ball.
That said…DO IT!!!,
Scoresman
Footballguy
I made another thread where I use Solver in excel to come up with "optimal" lineups for my auction league. Since this is another type of auction league I decided to do it for the contest.
Now, this is just for fun, because Solver cant handle all of the different variables you need to look at to put together a successful contest team. This simply looks at salary vs projected points and spits out the highest scoring team under the cap. No consideration is given to bye weeks, playoff week surges, etc. I also assumed a 25 player roster but gave it flexibility on the number of RBs/WR/TE. This does not optimize kickers or defenses. Just gives position players.
But here's the team it spits out.
Now, this is just for fun, because Solver cant handle all of the different variables you need to look at to put together a successful contest team. This simply looks at salary vs projected points and spits out the highest scoring team under the cap. No consideration is given to bye weeks, playoff week surges, etc. I also assumed a 25 player roster but gave it flexibility on the number of RBs/WR/TE. This does not optimize kickers or defenses. Just gives position players.
But here's the team it spits out.
| Name | $$$ | |
|---|---|---|
| QB1 | Josh Allen | 26 |
| QB2 | Tua Tagovailoa | 10 |
| RB1 | Chase Brown | 26 |
| RB2 | James Conner | 21 |
| RB3 | TreVeyon Henderson | 18 |
| RB4 | Kaleb Johnson | 16 |
| RB5 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 6 |
| RB6 | Emanuel Wilson | 4 |
| WR1 | DK Metcalf | 17 |
| WR2 | Stefon Diggs | 13 |
| WR3 | Matthew Golden | 12 |
| WR4 | Michael Pittman Jr. | 12 |
| WR5 | Emeka Egbuka | 10 |
| WR6 | Rashid Shaheed | 8 |
| WR7 | Keenan Allen | 5 |
| TE1 | Chig Okonkwo | 8 |
| TE2 | Cade Otton | 8 |
| TE3 | Juwan Johnson | 7 |
| TE4 | Tyler Higbee | 5 |
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
You may or may not be interested in the following from the wayback machine.....
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Point taken.
I think a lot of these players will end up on many rosters.
joey
Footballguy
So I’m inadvertently building a “most common, generic roster”. Greeeeaaaat
ETA: I just can’t get off some of these guys though, no matter how much I tinker. Bigsby $12, JCM $6, Tracy $16, Evans/Sutton/Pearsall at their prices…the TE combo I have….? Yes please.
I’ve convinced myself it’s perfect
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
So I’m inadvertently building a “most common, generic roster”. Greeeeaaaat
ETA: I just can’t get off some of these guys though, no matter how much I tinker. Bigsby $12, JCM $6, Tracy $16, Evans/Sutton/Pearsall at their prices…the TE combo I have….? Yes please.
I’ve convinced myself it’s perfect
I keep wanting to move off Bill and onto Chubb but there's insufficient intel. I'm not feeling Bill upside but its probably a safe stake.
Its interesting to me that you have Evans+Egbuka and Sutton+Engram (+Harvey). My unwillingness to double up like that has been a source of frustration.
Golden Gopher
Footballguy
Changed mine. I like this one.
QB - C.J. Stroud - HOU/6 - $14
QB - Geno Smith - LV/8 - $11
QB - Aaron Rodgers - PIT/5 - $10
RB - Omarion Hampton - LAC/12 - $23
RB - TreVeyon Henderson - NE/14 - $18
RB - Jaylen Warren - PIT/5 - $17
RB - Tyrone Tracy Jr. - NYG/14 - $16
RB - Jordan Mason - MIN/6 - $11
RB - Jacory Croskey-Merritt - WAS/12 - $6
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/12 - $19
WR - Rome Odunze - CHI/5 - $15
WR - Josh Downs - IND/11 - $12
WR - Ricky Pearsall - SF/14 - $11
WR - Rashod Bateman - BAL/7 - $10
WR - Emeka Egbuka - TB/9 - $10
TE - Zach Ertz - WAS/12 - $9
TE - Chig Okonkwo - TEN/10 - $8
TE - Mason Taylor - NYJ/9 - $7
TE - Juwan Johnson - NO/11 - $7
PK - Blake Grupe - NO/11 - $3
PK - Graham Gano - NYG/14 - $3
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/5 - $3
TD - New England Patriots - NE/14 - $4
TD - Las Vegas Raiders - LV/8 - $3
QB - C.J. Stroud - HOU/6 - $14
QB - Geno Smith - LV/8 - $11
QB - Aaron Rodgers - PIT/5 - $10
RB - Omarion Hampton - LAC/12 - $23
RB - TreVeyon Henderson - NE/14 - $18
RB - Jaylen Warren - PIT/5 - $17
RB - Tyrone Tracy Jr. - NYG/14 - $16
RB - Jordan Mason - MIN/6 - $11
RB - Jacory Croskey-Merritt - WAS/12 - $6
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/12 - $19
WR - Rome Odunze - CHI/5 - $15
WR - Josh Downs - IND/11 - $12
WR - Ricky Pearsall - SF/14 - $11
WR - Rashod Bateman - BAL/7 - $10
WR - Emeka Egbuka - TB/9 - $10
TE - Zach Ertz - WAS/12 - $9
TE - Chig Okonkwo - TEN/10 - $8
TE - Mason Taylor - NYJ/9 - $7
TE - Juwan Johnson - NO/11 - $7
PK - Blake Grupe - NO/11 - $3
PK - Graham Gano - NYG/14 - $3
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/5 - $3
TD - New England Patriots - NE/14 - $4
TD - Las Vegas Raiders - LV/8 - $3
joey
Footballguy
Great points. You actually pointed out exactly what I’ve been digging into in my latest iterations: reducing Denver investment.So I’m inadvertently building a “most common, generic roster”. Greeeeaaaat
ETA: I just can’t get off some of these guys though, no matter how much I tinker. Bigsby $12, JCM $6, Tracy $16, Evans/Sutton/Pearsall at their prices…the TE combo I have….? Yes please.
I’ve convinced myself it’s perfect
I keep wanting to move off Bill and onto Chubb but there's insufficient intel. I'm not feeling Bill upside but its probably a safe stake.
Its interesting to me that you have Evans+Egbuka and Sutton+Engram (+Harvey). My unwillingness to double up like that has been a source of frustration.
I’ve already changed to this roster minutes after posting the last one
QB - Jared Goff - DET/8 - $16
QB - C.J. Stroud - HOU/6 - $14
RB - D'Andre Swift - CHI/5 - $20
RB - Isiah Pacheco - KC/10 - $18
RB - TreVeyon Henderson - NE/14 - $18
RB - Tyrone Tracy Jr. - NYG/14 - $16
RB - Tank Bigsby - JAX/8 - $12
RB - Jacory Croskey-Merritt - WAS/12 - $6
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/12 - $19
WR - Mike Evans - TB/9 - $18
WR - Matthew Golden - GB/5 - $12
WR - Ricky Pearsall - SF/14 - $11
WR - Emeka Egbuka - TB/9 - $10
WR - Dont'e Thornton Jr. - LV/8 - $4
WR - Pat Bryant - DEN/12 - $2
TE - Jake Ferguson - DAL/10 - $15
TE - Tucker Kraft - GB/5 - $15
TE - Mason Taylor - NYJ/9 - $7
PK - Blake Grupe - NO/11 - $3
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/5 - $3
PK - Joey Slye - TEN/10 - $3
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/9 - $4
TD - Kansas City Chiefs - KC/10 - $4
As they say in the film business: FINAL!
ETA: might move off Egbuka in my next iteration but love his upside/value.
Ok Here it is. I feel like I need higher priced WRs but $8-$12 WRs are much better options than those prices/options for RBs. So I spent up on RBs and couldn’t on WRs
I should tweak to get 3rd kicker but it’s probably fine.
QB - C.J. Stroud - HOU/6 - $14
QB - Bryce Young - CAR/14 - $12
QB - Tua Tagovailoa - MIA/12 - $10
RB - Bucky Irving - TB/9 - $29
RB - Chase Brown - CIN/10 - $26
RB - James Conner - ARI/8 - $21
RB - Jordan Mason - MIN/6 - $11
RB - Jacory Croskey-Merritt - WAS/12 - $6
WR - Deebo Samuel Sr. - WAS/12 - $14
WR - Matthew Golden - GB/5 - $12
WR - Ricky Pearsall - SF/14 - $11
WR - Emeka Egbuka - TB/9 - $10
WR - Christian Kirk - HOU/6 - $10
WR - Rashid Shaheed - NO/11 - $8
WR - Malik Washington - MIA/12 - $5
WR - Jalen Coker - CAR/14 - $3
TE - T.J. Hockenson - MIN/6 - $18
TE - Brenton Strange - JAX/8 - $12
TE - Harold Fannin Jr. - CLE/9 - $4
PK - Tyler Loop - BAL/7 - $4
PK - Cam Little - JAX/8 - $4
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/10 - $3
TD - Carolina Panthers - CAR/14 - $3
I should tweak to get 3rd kicker but it’s probably fine.
QB - C.J. Stroud - HOU/6 - $14
QB - Bryce Young - CAR/14 - $12
QB - Tua Tagovailoa - MIA/12 - $10
RB - Bucky Irving - TB/9 - $29
RB - Chase Brown - CIN/10 - $26
RB - James Conner - ARI/8 - $21
RB - Jordan Mason - MIN/6 - $11
RB - Jacory Croskey-Merritt - WAS/12 - $6
WR - Deebo Samuel Sr. - WAS/12 - $14
WR - Matthew Golden - GB/5 - $12
WR - Ricky Pearsall - SF/14 - $11
WR - Emeka Egbuka - TB/9 - $10
WR - Christian Kirk - HOU/6 - $10
WR - Rashid Shaheed - NO/11 - $8
WR - Malik Washington - MIA/12 - $5
WR - Jalen Coker - CAR/14 - $3
TE - T.J. Hockenson - MIN/6 - $18
TE - Brenton Strange - JAX/8 - $12
TE - Harold Fannin Jr. - CLE/9 - $4
PK - Tyler Loop - BAL/7 - $4
PK - Cam Little - JAX/8 - $4
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/10 - $3
TD - Carolina Panthers - CAR/14 - $3
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Packers were ALREADY a $6 defense. LOL. Jerry Jones is an idiot.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Great points. You actually pointed out exactly what I’ve been digging into in my latest iterations: reducing Denver investment.So I’m inadvertently building a “most common, generic roster”. Greeeeaaaat
ETA: I just can’t get off some of these guys though, no matter how much I tinker. Bigsby $12, JCM $6, Tracy $16, Evans/Sutton/Pearsall at their prices…the TE combo I have….? Yes please.
I’ve convinced myself it’s perfect
I keep wanting to move off Bill and onto Chubb but there's insufficient intel. I'm not feeling Bill upside but its probably a safe stake.
Its interesting to me that you have Evans+Egbuka and Sutton+Engram (+Harvey). My unwillingness to double up like that has been a source of frustration.
I’ve already changed to this roster minutes after posting the last one
QB - Jared Goff - DET/8 - $16
QB - C.J. Stroud - HOU/6 - $14
RB - D'Andre Swift - CHI/5 - $20
RB - Isiah Pacheco - KC/10 - $18
RB - TreVeyon Henderson - NE/14 - $18
RB - Tyrone Tracy Jr. - NYG/14 - $16
RB - Tank Bigsby - JAX/8 - $12
RB - Jacory Croskey-Merritt - WAS/12 - $6
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/12 - $19
WR - Mike Evans - TB/9 - $18
WR - Matthew Golden - GB/5 - $12
WR - Ricky Pearsall - SF/14 - $11
WR - Emeka Egbuka - TB/9 - $10
WR - Dont'e Thornton Jr. - LV/8 - $4
WR - Pat Bryant - DEN/12 - $2
TE - Jake Ferguson - DAL/10 - $15
TE - Tucker Kraft - GB/5 - $15
TE - Mason Taylor - NYJ/9 - $7
PK - Blake Grupe - NO/11 - $3
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/5 - $3
PK - Joey Slye - TEN/10 - $3
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/9 - $4
TD - Kansas City Chiefs - KC/10 - $4
As they say in the film business: FINAL!
ETA: might move off Egbuka in my next iteration but love his upside/value.
there are a couple competing dynamics in play when it comes to stacking in the contest. in general, stacking in best ball formats is good because of the benefits of positive correlation. on the other hand, you can't reach for stack combos or the impact to the rest of your roster offsets the stacking gain and you have to be sensitive to not stacking excess do nothing dollars on a bye week. so what to do? I would describe my approach as "if I happen to fall into an advantageous stack I won't look a gift horse in the mouth". A good example would be Tampa. Evans plus Egbuka or Evans plus Otton are nice plays in a vacuum, but I would be potentially concerned about combos involving any two or more of Evans, Godwin, Mayfield. the risk of these stacking plays also needs to factor in the timing of the bye week. such an evil contest.
Can't say I've ever liked a 28 player team. It's not horrible...
QB - Justin Herbert - LAC/12 - $15
QB - C.J. Stroud - HOU/6 - $14
QB - Joe Flacco - CLE/9 - $8
RB - RJ Harvey - DEN/12 - $19
RB - Jaylen Warren - PIT/5 - $17
RB - Tyrone Tracy Jr. - NYG/14 - $16
RB - Jordan Mason - MIN/6 - $11
RB - Trey Benson - ARI/8 - $10
RB - Jacory Croskey-Merritt - WAS/12 - $6
WR - Stefon Diggs - NE/14 - $13
WR - Ricky Pearsall - SF/14 - $11
WR - Emeka Egbuka - TB/9 - $10
WR - Christian Kirk - HOU/6 - $10
WR - Cooper Kupp - SEA/8 - $10
WR - Adam Thielen - MIN/6 - $10
WR - Keenan Allen - LAC/12 - $5
WR - Jalen Coker - CAR/14 - $3
TE - Jake Ferguson - DAL/10 - $15
TE - Zach Ertz - WAS/12 - $9
TE - Chig Okonkwo - TEN/10 - $8
TE - Mason Taylor - NYJ/9 - $7
TE - AJ Barner - SEA/8 - $3
PK - Jake Moody - SF/14 - $4
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/5 - $3
PK - Joey Slye - TEN/10 - $3
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/9 - $4
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/10 - $3
TD - Miami Dolphins - MIA/12 - $3
QB - Justin Herbert - LAC/12 - $15
QB - C.J. Stroud - HOU/6 - $14
QB - Joe Flacco - CLE/9 - $8
RB - RJ Harvey - DEN/12 - $19
RB - Jaylen Warren - PIT/5 - $17
RB - Tyrone Tracy Jr. - NYG/14 - $16
RB - Jordan Mason - MIN/6 - $11
RB - Trey Benson - ARI/8 - $10
RB - Jacory Croskey-Merritt - WAS/12 - $6
WR - Stefon Diggs - NE/14 - $13
WR - Ricky Pearsall - SF/14 - $11
WR - Emeka Egbuka - TB/9 - $10
WR - Christian Kirk - HOU/6 - $10
WR - Cooper Kupp - SEA/8 - $10
WR - Adam Thielen - MIN/6 - $10
WR - Keenan Allen - LAC/12 - $5
WR - Jalen Coker - CAR/14 - $3
TE - Jake Ferguson - DAL/10 - $15
TE - Zach Ertz - WAS/12 - $9
TE - Chig Okonkwo - TEN/10 - $8
TE - Mason Taylor - NYJ/9 - $7
TE - AJ Barner - SEA/8 - $3
PK - Jake Moody - SF/14 - $4
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/5 - $3
PK - Joey Slye - TEN/10 - $3
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/9 - $4
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/10 - $3
TD - Miami Dolphins - MIA/12 - $3
ZWK
Footballguy
Stacking is definitely helpful for winning the contest, for basically the same reasons that it helps in DFS or big best ball tournaments. In the 3-week final you need a bunch of your players to hit big. If you have (say) Prescott+Jefferson, then you need two separate things to go right in order for both of them to hit big: Prescott has some big games, and Jefferson has some big games. If you have Prescott+Lamb, then you need more like one and a half things to go right: Prescott has some big games, and Lamb is guy on the receiving end of those big games. Lamb & Prescott have correlated upside, so you're probably better off going with Prescott+Lamb (or McCarthy+Jefferson) instead of Prescott+Jefferson, even if that costs you a couple bucks or means taking players that you think are slightly worse.Great points. You actually pointed out exactly what I’ve been digging into in my latest iterations: reducing Denver investment.So I’m inadvertently building a “most common, generic roster”. Greeeeaaaat
ETA: I just can’t get off some of these guys though, no matter how much I tinker. Bigsby $12, JCM $6, Tracy $16, Evans/Sutton/Pearsall at their prices…the TE combo I have….? Yes please.
I’ve convinced myself it’s perfect
I keep wanting to move off Bill and onto Chubb but there's insufficient intel. I'm not feeling Bill upside but its probably a safe stake.
Its interesting to me that you have Evans+Egbuka and Sutton+Engram (+Harvey). My unwillingness to double up like that has been a source of frustration.
I’ve already changed to this roster minutes after posting the last one
QB - Jared Goff - DET/8 - $16
QB - C.J. Stroud - HOU/6 - $14
RB - D'Andre Swift - CHI/5 - $20
RB - Isiah Pacheco - KC/10 - $18
RB - TreVeyon Henderson - NE/14 - $18
RB - Tyrone Tracy Jr. - NYG/14 - $16
RB - Tank Bigsby - JAX/8 - $12
RB - Jacory Croskey-Merritt - WAS/12 - $6
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/12 - $19
WR - Mike Evans - TB/9 - $18
WR - Matthew Golden - GB/5 - $12
WR - Ricky Pearsall - SF/14 - $11
WR - Emeka Egbuka - TB/9 - $10
WR - Dont'e Thornton Jr. - LV/8 - $4
WR - Pat Bryant - DEN/12 - $2
TE - Jake Ferguson - DAL/10 - $15
TE - Tucker Kraft - GB/5 - $15
TE - Mason Taylor - NYJ/9 - $7
PK - Blake Grupe - NO/11 - $3
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/5 - $3
PK - Joey Slye - TEN/10 - $3
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/9 - $4
TD - Kansas City Chiefs - KC/10 - $4
As they say in the film business: FINAL!
ETA: might move off Egbuka in my next iteration but love his upside/value.
there are a couple competing dynamics in play when it comes to stacking in the contest. in general, stacking in best ball formats is good because of the benefits of positive correlation. on the other hand, you can't reach for stack combos or the impact to the rest of your roster offsets the stacking gain and you have to be sensitive to not stacking excess do nothing dollars on a bye week. so what to do? I would describe my approach as "if I happen to fall into an advantageous stack I won't look a gift horse in the mouth". A good example would be Tampa. Evans plus Egbuka or Evans plus Otton are nice plays in a vacuum, but I would be potentially concerned about combos involving any two or more of Evans, Godwin, Mayfield. the risk of these stacking plays also needs to factor in the timing of the bye week. such an evil contest.
For making it to the finals it's less clear, but stacking is probably still at least a little helpful. The advantage: to be one of the 2% or so of teams that makes the finals, you need better-than-expected seasons from a bunch of players on your roster. And you're more likely to get that with teammates, like rookie CJ Stroud and a few of his receivers all having good years, or Burrow & Chase going wild last year. But there's also a disadvantage: week-to-week correlation hurts your team because it's an elimination format - when Burrow & Chase both have a down week, that's two of your high-paid players struggling at once and you might be at risk of falling below the cut line even if you have a good team on the whole. Whereas when they both have a huge week, that's likely to be overkill which puts you way above the cut line.
My guess is that the benefits of stacking outweigh the costs even for making it to the finals, but that's unclear. The more of a longshot your team is to make the finals, the more the correlated upside matters - if you actually had just a 2% chance of making it then stacking would be great, but if just building a very solid roster gives you a 30% chance of making the finals then stacking might not be helpful for that.
