Steven Jackson to ATL (1 Viewer)

[rizzler]

The fact that SJax looks like Warren Sapp on the field, turns me off as well.

Isn't black supposed to be slimming?

 

[rizzler]

I can't believe my Ponce De Leon jab got washed aside.

You guys don't know gold when you see it.

I thought you were permanently banned.

you got the right guy there, bruh?

 

[pantherclub]

IF Jackson fails, it will almost certainly be because his O-line sucks beyond belief, not because of the mileage on his legs.

And thats my point, people disregard the mileage and think he is now a top 10 rb because he is on the Falcons, it doesnt work like that.Thats an insane amount of punishment to put on your body and the fact that everything was already trending down is pretty telling.

I'll be honest, the most concerning thing to me about Jackson is the schedule. Are you hoping to be in your championship game? Week 16: Atlanta @ San Francisco. Ughhh. That has 11/29/0 written all over it. The shark move - if you draft him - is to move him before the week 10 game against Seattle. He's got a very, very easy early-season schedule.

good strategy but my gut tells me he is exposed way before then. Granted I didnt see the game tonight but I saw enough last year to see that he has lost that first step "pop" that he had early in his career that would could turn the corner and bust a big play. Now he makes his move and lowers his head for contact. Thats not how I remember him early on at all.

All of this, and you didn't even see him play tonight? You can't make this stuff up.

do 30 year old running backs tend to get faster in the off season? If so then my apologies

 

[ConnSKINS26]

The fact that SJax looks like Warren Sapp on the field, turns me off as well.

Isn't black supposed to be slimming?

Ummm?

http://onlineathens.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/full/12506715.jpg

http://media.utsandiego.com/img/photos/2013/08/08/ec2e68c7-e369-4de6-8e19-9f28cc869a9enews.ap.org_t420.jpg?e2839eb8a119d4fa52c4ed1e5a2462d1b2132cb5

Seriously, what the hell are you talking about here?

 

[rizzler]

The fact that SJax looks like Warren Sapp on the field, turns me off as well.

Isn't black supposed to be slimming?

Ummm?

http://onlineathens.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/full/12506715.jpg

http://media.utsandiego.com/img/photos/2013/08/08/ec2e68c7-e369-4de6-8e19-9f28cc869a9enews.ap.org_t420.jpg?e2839eb8a119d4fa52c4ed1e5a2462d1b2132cb5

Seriously, what the hell are you talking about here?

flattering angles

 

[ConnSKINS26]

The fact that SJax looks like Warren Sapp on the field, turns me off as well.

Isn't black supposed to be slimming?

Ummm?http://onlineathens.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/full/12506715.jpghttp://media.utsandiego.com/img/photos/2013/08/08/ec2e68c7-e369-4de6-8e19-9f28cc869a9enews.ap.org_t420.jpg?e2839eb8a119d4fa52c4ed1e5a2462d1b2132cb5

Seriously, what the hell are you talking about here?

flattering angles

Sure.

 

[bulger2holt]

This Rams fan was actually glad to see SJ go. He had a great career, but he looked like crap last year. Slow as a turtle. He will make a few powerful runs, but he can't out run anybody. Great blocker though. Ryan, JJ, Roddy and Gonzo will love him. He'll help their passing game.

 

[ghostguy123]

Lol, this forum is always good for a chuckle when a player doesn't do great in the first preseason game.

I am hoping the sjax owners in my leagues feel the way you do, and i can go get him cheap. Something tells me they dont though. Call it a hunch.

 

[Biabreakable]

IF Jackson fails, it will almost certainly be because his O-line sucks beyond belief, not because of the mileage on his legs.

And thats my point, people disregard the mileage and think he is now a top 10 rb because he is on the Falcons, it doesnt work like that.

Thats an insane amount of punishment to put on your body and the fact that everything was already trending down is pretty telling.

Please describe this trending down.

Cumulative carries has been studied very thoroughly and the only decent conclusion one will arrive at is that a RB who has had a lot of carries is much more likely to receive a lot of carries in the future than a player who has not. This idea of a player wearing down because of mileage it a complete myth.

 

[Fiddles]

Lets see what happens with Julio and Gonzo playing.

 

[cheese]

In all fairness to Sjax, Atlanta's line stinks at run blocking; he barely had the ball before he was met by several defenders on several of those carries tonight. But he did look slow.

I would, at minimum, wait and see if the same thing happens the next 2 preseason games. Geno Atkins blowing a giant hole in the run blocking isn't exactly unique to the Falcons.

 

[FlapJacks]

IF Jackson fails, it will almost certainly be because his O-line sucks beyond belief, not because of the mileage on his legs.

And thats my point, people disregard the mileage and think he is now a top 10 rb because he is on the Falcons, it doesnt work like that.

Thats an insane amount of punishment to put on your body and the fact that everything was already trending down is pretty telling.

Please describe this trending down.

Cumulative carries has been studied very thoroughly and the only decent conclusion one will arrive at is that a RB who has had a lot of carries is much more likely to receive a lot of carries in the future than a player who has not. This idea of a player wearing down because of mileage it a complete myth.

age is always a concern too

 

[Biabreakable]

IF Jackson fails, it will almost certainly be because his O-line sucks beyond belief, not because of the mileage on his legs.

And thats my point, people disregard the mileage and think he is now a top 10 rb because he is on the Falcons, it doesnt work like that.

Thats an insane amount of punishment to put on your body and the fact that everything was already trending down is pretty telling.

Please describe this trending down.

Cumulative carries has been studied very thoroughly and the only decent conclusion one will arrive at is that a RB who has had a lot of carries is much more likely to receive a lot of carries in the future than a player who has not. This idea of a player wearing down because of mileage it a complete myth.

age is always a concern too

Myth: Avoid RBs that are 30 years or older at all costs

Truth: Unless they’ve shown signs of decline, age is only a number

The running back position takes an inordinate pounding, which is why the average length of a runner’s career is shorter than most. But for those RBs who are elite enough to stick in the league until they approach the ripe old age of 30, there’s no magical spell that turns them brittle or ineffective at that age. It could just as easily happen when they’re 28, or 32. So while a RB with lots of miles is one extra risk to consider, don’t completely write a guy off because he’s no longer a twenty-something.


First Last Year Age RuYds RecYds TDs FanPts RBRank
Priest Holmes 2003 30 1,420 690 27 373 1st
Tiki Barber 2005 30 1,860 530 11 305 4th
Curtis Martin 2004 31 1,697 245 14 278 4th
Charlie Garner 2002 30 962 941 11 256 9th
Corey Dillon 2004 30 1,635 103 13 252 7th
Tiki Barber 2006 31 1,662 465 5 243 7th
Thomas Jones 2008 30 1,312 207 15 242 5th
Ricky Watters 2000 31 1,242 613 9 240 9th
Thomas Jones 2009 31 1,402 58 14 230 6th
Lamar Smith 2000 30 1,139 201 16 230 11th
Ricky Williams 2009 32 1,121 264 13 216 7th
Mike Anderson 2005 32 1,014 212 13 201 10th
Priest Holmes 2004 31 892 187 15 198 13th
Warrick Dunn 2005 30 1,416 220 4 188 12th
Garrison Hearst 2001 30 1,206 347 5 185 12th
Garrison Hearst 2002 31 972 317 9 183 20th
Emmitt Smith 2000 31 1,203 79 9 182 20th
Jerome Bettis 2004 32 941 46 13 181 18th
Marshall Faulk 2003 30 818 290 11 177 16th
Fred Taylor 2006 30 1,146 242 6 175 18th

Priest Holmes was the #1 fantasy back (and had one of the best offensive seasons in history) as a 30-year-old, and eleven 30+ year olds have finished as Top 10 fantasy RBs over the last decade. Each of these backs finished at least in the Top 20. Today’s athletes are bigger, stronger and faster, and medical advances have extended careers in ways that would’ve been impossible just a few years ago. So when you’re deciding on your third or fourth RB on draft day, don’t skip over the likes of Thomas Jones (32), Ricky Williams (33), or LaDainian Tomlinson (31) on principle. We don’t project any of these guys to be elite this year, but it shouldn’t shock you if it happens. http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/16/myth-busters-fantasy-football-edition/?_r=0

Discussion in regards to Jackson and this issue- http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=681689

There are likely a couple other Jackson threads here where further analysis of this cumulative carries theory as well if you would like more information.

This issue has also been discussed in dynasty related threads where it is a pretty important topic.

I have read likely over 100 studies that try to prove that cumulative carries/mileage causes decline in RB. I have not read one that was convincing. There is something to when a player gets over worked (over 400 carries in one season) leading to decline the following season but these studies are also somewhat engineered to reach that conclusion as well. Not many players are going to get that much opportunity each and every season and their decline has more to do with the volume of touches or else an injury as the main reasons why they do not perform as well the following season.

There is some correlation between high volume touch seasons leading to decline in YPC the following season. I think part of this is because of the certainty that defensive coordinators can call run defense against these players. That makes a big difference when the RB is the only show in town and the only thing the defense needs to stop. For example Jackson most of his career.

That is not the situation for him with the Falcons now.

I watched Jackson's runs yesterday. He did not look slow to me bouncing that 1st run all the way outside and then running with power to get 4 yards. The following run he was hit in the backfield and the defense was clearly selling out to stop the run as they were on that 1st down.

Did any team call a pass play on their 1st play of the game? I saw every team starting off with a run and the defense knows that. The Falcons offensive line is not really an improvement from what Jackson has had to work with most of his career but once the passing game gets into a rhythm the defense is not going to be worried about Jackson nearly as much.

 

[rizzler]

Jackson didn't look slow? He didn't look like his feet were stuck in buckets of molasses?

Ok, let's end the debate here then.

 

[pantherclub]

That's not very convincing data. 1 30 year old a year has cracked the top 10 for the last decade?

Also it appears you or whoever just cherry picked those runners. Plus it doesn't really factor in overall carries.

 

[pantherclub]

One more thing. That article is addressing Rb depth not a 30 yr old Rb 1. If you are drafting Jackson late first early second you should be expecting rb 1 numbers.

 

[Biabreakable]

That's not very convincing data. 1 30 year old a year has cracked the top 10 for the last decade?

Also it appears you or whoever just cherry picked those runners. Plus it doesn't really factor in overall carries.

Cherry picked what numbers?

This has been discussed many many times. You have brought nothing but saying you think Jackson looks slow.

What about overall carries should we be paying attention to?

I think people discounting Jackson because of his age or workload are either fishing or don't know what they are talking about. Prove me wrong.

 

[domvin]

His o-line sucks, plain and simple.....and Koetter as OC prefers a passing attack.

I know Turner was a pile of gooh last year, but look at his YPC. Same for Rodgers last year.

Now, look at what their o-line is this year. Their O line is a mess.....

 

[Snotbubbles]

IF Jackson fails, it will almost certainly be because his O-line sucks beyond belief, not because of the mileage on his legs.

And thats my point, people disregard the mileage and think he is now a top 10 rb because he is on the Falcons, it doesnt work like that.

Thats an insane amount of punishment to put on your body and the fact that everything was already trending down is pretty telling.

Please describe this trending down.

Cumulative carries has been studied very thoroughly and the only decent conclusion one will arrive at is that a RB who has had a lot of carries is much more likely to receive a lot of carries in the future than a player who has not. This idea of a player wearing down because of mileage it a complete myth.

age is always a concern too

Myth: Avoid RBs that are 30 years or older at all costs

Truth: Unless they’ve shown signs of decline, age is only a number

The running back position takes an inordinate pounding, which is why the average length of a runner’s career is shorter than most. But for those RBs who are elite enough to stick in the league until they approach the ripe old age of 30, there’s no magical spell that turns them brittle or ineffective at that age. It could just as easily happen when they’re 28, or 32. So while a RB with lots of miles is one extra risk to consider, don’t completely write a guy off because he’s no longer a twenty-something.


First Last Year Age RuYds RecYds TDs FanPts RBRank
Priest Holmes 2003 30 1,420 690 27 373 1st
Tiki Barber 2005 30 1,860 530 11 305 4th
Curtis Martin 2004 31 1,697 245 14 278 4th
Charlie Garner 2002 30 962 941 11 256 9th
Corey Dillon 2004 30 1,635 103 13 252 7th
Tiki Barber 2006 31 1,662 465 5 243 7th
Thomas Jones 2008 30 1,312 207 15 242 5th
Ricky Watters 2000 31 1,242 613 9 240 9th
Thomas Jones 2009 31 1,402 58 14 230 6th
Lamar Smith 2000 30 1,139 201 16 230 11th
Ricky Williams 2009 32 1,121 264 13 216 7th
Mike Anderson 2005 32 1,014 212 13 201 10th
Priest Holmes 2004 31 892 187 15 198 13th
Warrick Dunn 2005 30 1,416 220 4 188 12th
Garrison Hearst 2001 30 1,206 347 5 185 12th
Garrison Hearst 2002 31 972 317 9 183 20th
Emmitt Smith 2000 31 1,203 79 9 182 20th
Jerome Bettis 2004 32 941 46 13 181 18th
Marshall Faulk 2003 30 818 290 11 177 16th
Fred Taylor 2006 30 1,146 242 6 175 18th

Priest Holmes was the #1 fantasy back (and had one of the best offensive seasons in history) as a 30-year-old, and eleven 30+ year olds have finished as Top 10 fantasy RBs over the last decade. Each of these backs finished at least in the Top 20. Today’s athletes are bigger, stronger and faster, and medical advances have extended careers in ways that would’ve been impossible just a few years ago. So when you’re deciding on your third or fourth RB on draft day, don’t skip over the likes of Thomas Jones (32), Ricky Williams (33), or LaDainian Tomlinson (31) on principle. We don’t project any of these guys to be elite this year, but it shouldn’t shock you if it happens. http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/16/myth-busters-fantasy-football-edition/?_r=0

Discussion in regards to Jackson and this issue- http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=681689

There are likely a couple other Jackson threads here where further analysis of this cumulative carries theory as well if you would like more information.

This issue has also been discussed in dynasty related threads where it is a pretty important topic.

I have read likely over 100 studies that try to prove that cumulative carries/mileage causes decline in RB. I have not read one that was convincing. There is something to when a player gets over worked (over 400 carries in one season) leading to decline the following season but these studies are also somewhat engineered to reach that conclusion as well. Not many players are going to get that much opportunity each and every season and their decline has more to do with the volume of touches or else an injury as the main reasons why they do not perform as well the following season.

There is some correlation between high volume touch seasons leading to decline in YPC the following season. I think part of this is because of the certainty that defensive coordinators can call run defense against these players. That makes a big difference when the RB is the only show in town and the only thing the defense needs to stop. For example Jackson most of his career.

That is not the situation for him with the Falcons now.

I watched Jackson's runs yesterday. He did not look slow to me bouncing that 1st run all the way outside and then running with power to get 4 yards. The following run he was hit in the backfield and the defense was clearly selling out to stop the run as they were on that 1st down.

Did any team call a pass play on their 1st play of the game? I saw every team starting off with a run and the defense knows that. The Falcons offensive line is not really an improvement from what Jackson has had to work with most of his career but once the passing game gets into a rhythm the defense is not going to be worried about Jackson nearly as much.

I look at that list of RBs and say that a lot of those RBs are not comparables for Steven Jackson. The theory isn't, when a player hits 30 they fall off a cliff. The theory is that due to the wear and tear of the RB position, when a player hits 30 they fall off the cliff. It's a two pronged test.

Jackson has over 2300 carries in his career to date. So to compare him to guys that aren't even close to his wear and tear is foolish.

By the time they hit 30:

Priest Holmes had ~1100 carries.

Garrison Hearst ~ 1100 carries

Tiki Barber ~ 1500 carries

Charlie Garner ~1200 carries

Mike Anderson ~600

Thomas Jones ~1600 carries

Lamar Smith ~500 carries

Then you got guys who had the wear and tear: Bettis and Faulk, but didn't really have the production. Neither hit 1000 yards.

 

[rizzler]

he'll likely smash in 8-10 TDs on the goalline.. but his rushing numbers will stink

 

[Biabreakable]

Here is an article about the effect of cumulative carries for RB: http://davidgonos.com/fantasy/football/when-can-we-expect-rb-dropoff-to-occur/

The relevant part about total carries from this article is this-

• Total Carries – 2,744
• Yearly Carries – 302
• Yearly Yards – 1,252
• Age – 29.85

Steven Jackson has 2395 career carries right now.

Even if there was a connection between total carries and a player breaking down, according to this Jackson still has 349 carries to go.

I do not think the total number of carries makes a difference at all. I think the main thing that ends a RB career is age not carries. There is also usually a major injury involved. A younger player will get the opportunity to come back and start again after the injury while a older RB will not get that opportunity.

There are so many RB who have declined at age 30-32 regardless of how little or much their workload was during their career that the total carries argument just does not make sense. Why did Priest Holmes and Thomas Jones decline when they had such a low workload?

 

[Biabreakable]

His o-line sucks, plain and simple.....and Koetter as OC prefers a passing attack.

I know Turner was a pile of gooh last year, but look at his YPC. Same for Rodgers last year.

Now, look at what their o-line is this year. Their O line is a mess.....

I agree this is a problem. However Jackson was not running behind a very good line with the Rams during his career either. I think the Rams Oline (not sure if Saffold is badly hurt or not right now) is perhaps the best group they have had there in some time. So I do think this holds Jackson back from being a top 5 RB I think he will still be able to be as successful yardage wise as he was with the Rams. The TD and receptions are what I think could go up for Jackson.

 

[ghostguy123]

Here is an article about the effect of cumulative carries for RB: http://davidgonos.com/fantasy/football/when-can-we-expect-rb-dropoff-to-occur/

The relevant part about total carries from this article is this-

• Total Carries 2,744
• Yearly Carries 302
• Yearly Yards 1,252
• Age 29.85

Steven Jackson has 2395 career carries right now.

Even if there was a connection between total carries and a player breaking down, according to this Jackson still has 349 carries to go.

I do not think the total number of carries makes a difference at all. I think the main thing that ends a RB career is age not carries. There is also usually a major injury involved. A younger player will get the opportunity to come back and start again after the injury while a older RB will not get that opportunity.

There are so many RB who have declined at age 30-32 regardless of how little or much their workload was during their career that the total carries argument just does not make sense. Why did Priest Holmes and Thomas Jones decline when they had such a low workload?

Age is the MAIN thing, agree. But to say that the total number of carries means nothing is pretty silly.

I cringe a bit when I see Jackson go off the board in the top two rounds, but I can see him still having a nice season, somehwere around rb-10, maybe rb-15.

 

[Biabreakable]

I am not saying there is not risk with Jackson. He did turn 30 years old 19 days ago.

 

[dickey moe]

It's the first freaking preseason game. Overreact much?

 

[ghostguy123]

It's the first freaking preseason game. Overreact much?

I agree that 95% of these comments are due to overreaction. However, did you watch the game?? He did look a bit slow and bit of a plodder. I also got the strange feeling he was barely trying.

 

[Phenix]

Great on all the stuff and stats everyone is providing, he still looked like he lost a step last night.

He is 30, is he gonna be faster than he was last year? No, so his pace looks about right.

Will he be productive, maybe, but he is the same player as Turner now.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Here is an article about the effect of cumulative carries for RB: http://davidgonos.com/fantasy/football/when-can-we-expect-rb-dropoff-to-occur/

The relevant part about total carries from this article is this-

• Total Carries – 2,744
• Yearly Carries – 302
• Yearly Yards – 1,252
• Age – 29.85

Steven Jackson has 2395 career carries right now.

Even if there was a connection between total carries and a player breaking down, according to this Jackson still has 349 carries to go.

I do not think the total number of carries makes a difference at all. I think the main thing that ends a RB career is age not carries. There is also usually a major injury involved. A younger player will get the opportunity to come back and start again after the injury while a older RB will not get that opportunity.

There are so many RB who have declined at age 30-32 regardless of how little or much their workload was during their career that the total carries argument just does not make sense. Why did Priest Holmes and Thomas Jones decline when they had such a low workload?

Priest Holmes had an injury in 2004. At the time he wasn't declining. in 2005 he had a spinal injury that effectively ended his career.

Not sure about Thomas Jones.

 

[Biabreakable]

Honestly there is reams of good material on this subject, both pro and con. As discussed in the spotlight thread you need to look at each players individual situation.

Here is another one I enjoyed reading this morning if anyone else is interested- http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFP-Sunday-Blitz-7929.html

Not since then-Kansas City tailback Larry Johnson posted a league-record 416 carries in 2006 has an NFL player rushed 400 times in a year. Then again, since there have been only five backs in league history to register 400 rushing attempts in a campaign, the fact there weren’t any 400-carry runners over the past six seasons might not exactly be an earth-shattering revelation.

But the newsier item could be that, given the current climate, it’s very possible there might never be another player who lugs the ball 400 times in a season.

“The trend certainly is against (a 400-carry running back),” former Atlanta tailback Jamal Anderson, who carried 410 times (the second-most in league history) in 1998, acknowledged to NFP this spring. “Maybe it will happen, but that’s a (lot) of rushes anymore.” Noted former star back Eddie George, who carried 403 times for the Tennessee Titans during the 2000 season: “Unless the game changes dramatically, yeah, it might never happen again.”

That’s for sure.

It wasn’t all that long ago that coaches and personnel people used to often talk about “workhorse” backs who could carry 25 times a game. But the statistics definitely suggest that, those overstated assessments aside, such a workload was just so much hyperbole. The last runner to average 25 rushes per game over the course of a season was, again, Johnson, in ’06, with a 26.0-attempt average. In the six seasons since Johnson’s heavy-workload year, there have been just 31 players who carried 300 times or more and only 23 who averaged even 20 attempts per game.

There have been only five backs who carried 350 or more times the last six years, and no one had more than Michael Turner’s 376 rushes in 2008. As one-dimensional as the Minnesota offense was regarded to be in 2012, the great Adrian Peterson had “just” 348 carries, the second fewest by a 2,000-yard runner in a 16-game season. Houston’s Arian Foster, seen as a bellcow-type back, led the league with 351 carries, but his yards per attempt (4.1) minus backup Ben Tate for five games was the lowest of his career.

The previous six seasons, the number of 300-carry runners (61) was nearly double the total for 2007-2012, and there were 60 players who averaged at least 20 carries per game. From 2001-2006, there were at least nine players each season who had 300 or more carries, and 10 or more in four of those years. Over the same period, there was never fewer than seven backs with 20-carry averages per game, and in three of those seasons, there were 10 or more. In the past six seasons, though, there has never been a season with more than seven 300-attempt players, and just once has there been more than four rushers with averages of 20 or more carries.

The times, they are a-changin’ when it comes to the heavy-duty running back model that was once so predominant around the league. That’s not only evident from the raw rushing attempt numbers of the last half-dozen seasons, but also, in some ways, in the draft. There were zero backs selected in the first round this spring, and there haven’t been more than three first-round runners since 2008.

Many teams once subscribed to what we’ll call the “Prisco Theory,” the belief espoused by good friend Pete Prisco of CBSSports. Simply stated: draft a back, run him into the ground for five years, then draft another one. The philosophy still holds true in some quarters, but largely, teams are trying to add some shelf-life to their runners, to rub tread off the tire less quickly, and avoid blowouts.

That’s not to suggest that running backs still aren’t important. The significance of the position, though, appears to have diminished. It’s not quite “the amazing shrinking running back” position but with the game having skewed in such a lopsided manner toward the pass, teams prioritize differently now. Notable is that, of the past five Super Bowl champions, only one had a running game that rated statistically in the top 10. Three franchises won the Super Bowl in that stretch with running games that ranked 23rd or lower, including the bottom-rated New York Giants in 2011.

“It’s just morphed into a different game now,” Johnson said. “The feeling among teams seems to be that less can be more.”

There are a lot of reasons for the decline, but in discussions the last few weeks with NFP, players, coaches and personnel executives focused on three elements, beyond the most obvious, the overall emphasis on the pass, and the fact the ball is in the air so much more now. First, teams have opted around the league for more time-sharing at a tailback position where it was also essential to have a “feature” back. There’s still usually a clear-cut delineation between the backup and the starter, but for several teams, the line has blurred a little more. There were, for instance, 10 franchises in 2012 that had a pair of backs with 100 or more carries each (excluding rushes by their quarterbacks). It won’t be surprising if that number expands in 2013. While no team is apt to split attempts evenly, there figures to be less disparity between the starter and the No. 2 runner for some teams.

“The key,” said veteran tailback Steven Jackson, who has moved on to Atlanta after nine seasons in St. Louis, “is productivity. Whatever makes the offense the most effective. I’m a guy who likes getting the ball (Jackson averaged nearly 290 carries per year in the seven seasons with the Rams in which he started at least a dozen games), but you want to maximize your carries, too.”

In 2009-2010, Jackson totaled 654 rushes. Over the next two seasons, his rushes dropped by basically 20 percent total, to 517.

Second, the colleges, where the “spread” offenses are so prevalent, have produced fewer top-tier backs. Couple that with the fact that teams increasingly have been able to find excellent runners, like Alfred Morris of Washington, a sixth-round pick in 2012, capable of stepping in and producing immediate results.

And, finally, the rushing quarterbacks, and the sudden popularity of the read-option or zone-option offenses, have taken carries away from backs. The position has evolved in some cases beyond scrambling or avoiding the pass rush, to more pre-designed runs, or options, for quarterbacks. There were three quarterbacks in 2012 who had 75 carries or more, four with 400-plus rushing yards. Until defenses catch up to the option-read style, it figures to flourish.

“It’s a weapon,” said Cam Newton of Carolina. “It might take some carries away from (the backs), but it also means those guys are hitting more air sometimes, too. It seems like the tradeoff is a pretty good one.”

On the subject of using a 400-carry season as a kind of threshold for backs, an AFC offensive coordinator pointed out that an 18-game season, assuming commissioner Roger Goodell ever gets his way on the “enhanced schedule” (haven’t heard that term in a while, right?) could produce a 400-carry campaign by a back. But even with 18 games, a player would have to average 22.2 carries a contest to reach the 400-attempt mark. And no back has averaged that number of carries since 2009, when Cedric Benson had 23.2 attempts per game and Chris Johnson had 22.4.

“The way the game is right now,” Anderson said, “it’s hard to see (400 carries) ever happening again.”

So unless the pendulum swings back toward the run, the league’s “400-carry club” – Johnson, Anderson, James Wilder (407 in 1984), Eric Dickerson (404 in ’86), and George – figures to remain a pretty exclusive fraternity.

Jackson only had 257 rushing attempts last season so he would not be considered a risk due to high workload the previous season like some are saying is a risk for Arian Foster due to his 391 total touches (Jackson had 295 combined in 2012).

Personally I have always wanted the players who get the ball a lot. That tends to be a good thing.

 

[RBM]

It's the first freaking preseason game. Overreact much?

I agree that 95% of these comments are due to overreaction. However, did you watch the game?? He did look a bit slow and bit of a plodder. I also got the strange feeling he was barely trying.

Holy crap it's early August. Never crossed your mind that guys don't just show up to camp and are 100% ready for reg season game speed?

Amateur night in this thread. You want to take anything out of a preseason game, wait til game 3 for craps sake.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I am not buying he has lost a step from last year. I am assuming there are very few of you that watched much of Jackson last year that are coming up with this conclusion. He was not fast last year either really. However he was also not slow. Jackson has great vision and is a vicious runner. Go and watch his highlights from last year. He is not as fast as he was when he was 21, but he really does not need to be to be a very productive RB even at age 30.

Looking at 5 pre season carries and trying to analyse how much he has lost is a joke right? Those of you saying he has lost a step had to be looking for it with a bias. Jackson is a big RB and a couple of those plays were blown up quick. Barry Sanders in his prime is not making those plays. Take a breath and relax. He is a work out freak and takes care of his body. He is going to be really good in this offense.

This line is not great, but neither was his O line in St. Louis last year where he combined for 1350 yards.

Don't over think it. Jackson's floor is 1400 combined yards with 10 TDs with an intriguing ceiling of 1700 combined yards with 15 td's.

 

[Vector]

Rather than focus on his age and mileage, the simple question we should be focusing on is whether he is too expensive this year.

It appears, and I thought this before last nights game, that expectations are unrealistic for Jackson this year. I have him as my 18th ranked RB which is quite a bit lower than most others expectations.

I see 966 (230 X 4.2) yards and 9 TD's rushing. His receiving numbers are a little uncertain as this is a new team and his usage there is unknown at this point.

(I play in a PPR league)

 

[Biabreakable]

The Atlanta Falcons did something in 2012 they hadn’t been able to do in previous seasons since draftingMatt Ryan, win a playoff game. However, the following week brought an all too common feeling for the franchise with another playoff loss. For the Falcons, it looked like last season would be the one to finally get over the hump and win a championship. Matt Ryan orchestrated a potent aerial attack and the defense was smothering. In the end, the only thing missing from the equation was a prominent ground game. This offseason the front office looked to change that. Exit Michael Turner, enter Steven Jackson. The question now becomes, how will Steven Jackson fit into the Falcons offense, and will he succeed?

For nearly a decade, Steven Jackson plied his trade in St. Louis on primarily mediocre teams. Jackson, drafted out of Oregon State in the first round of the 2004 draft, has gained more than 10,000 yards on the ground through his career thus far as well as 56 career rushing touchdowns. To say he was the centerpiece of the Rams offense would be an understatement. Fact is, Jackson was the only offense for the Rams for a large portion of his time there. With the drafting of quarterback Sam Bradford and running backs Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson, the writing was on the wall that Jeff Fisher was looking to make changes. The 2012 season saw a decreased role for Jackson as the offense looked to become more explosive. The offseason hit and Jackson was looking for a new home.

Enter the Atlanta Falcons, fresh off their heartbreaking loss in the NFC Championship game at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers. The Falcons had taken an early lead against the 49ers utilizing a dizzying and potent passing attack. However, the offense was one dimensional, and in the second half the 49ers offense and defense was able to get the ball rolling. When the Falcons needed a long, sustained drive, it turned up empty as they were unable to do much of anything on the ground against a tough 49ers defense. The lack of a reliable run game had plagued the team throughout the 2012 season although rarely putting Atlanta in any serious danger. Ultimately it proved costly when a conference title and a trip to the Super Bowl came calling.

The Falcons were quick to end their relationship with Michael Turner at the end of the 2012 season. Turner had been signed as a free agent in 2008 having signed a six year, $34.5 million contract with $15 million guaranteed. The running back out of Northern Illinois became the franchise leader in rushing touchdowns with 60 during his time in Atlanta. Turner averaged 1,200 yards rushing, 12 touchdowns, and a 4.32 yards per attempt during his five year run. However, the 2012 version of the Atlanta Falcons was a pass first offense who needed production at a high pace. In 2012 Turner averaged only 3.6 yards per carry, roughly half a yard less than his average. To be fair, Turner’s decline could be attributed to his heavy workload since being signed by the Falcons. Aside from an injury shortened 2009 season, Turner has averaged 308 carries a year. That type of punishment will take its tole on any player, let alone a bruising type runner like Turner. In 2012, Turner’s touches took a major hit as the team looked to get the explosive Jacquizz Rodgers more touches.

Combine Turner’s decline in production, coupled with Atlanta’s refusal of paying $5.5 million in 2013 for a part time runner, sealed his fate. The Falcons were instantly a front runner to sign Jackson after he chose to opt out of his contract with the Rams. Jackson signed with the Falcons on a three year, worth at least $12 million with a $3.5 million signing bonus. The new addition costs just $2.9 million in 2013 with bumps to $4.1 million and $4.9 million the following two seasons respectively. For this season alone the Falcons saved nearly $3 million, which has allowed the team to sign many of their own free agents.

Aside from the money, Jackson brings many things to the table for Matt Ryan and the offense. Jackson, even at this stage in his career, remains one of the premier backs in the NFL. His combination of size, elusiveness, blocking, and hands are a definite upgrade at the position. Turner was never much of a receiving threat out of the backfield and in a time where the passing game is key to success, he became more of a liability than an asset. Jackson may not have the game breaking speed as a Chris Johnson orJamaal Charles, but he does make it extremely difficult for opposing defenses to bring him down. Jackson has averaged roughly 45 receptions a season over his nine year career. Michael Turner’s career high in receptions is 19, set last season.

The comparisons head to head place Steven Jackson above Michael Turner. We saw last season how Turner’s carries declined in a pass first offense. With Jackson, the Falcons now have an every down back who can make plays on offense through the air as well as on the ground. This provides flexibility for Mike Smith and Matt Ryan. Don’t be surprised to see packages with Rodgers and Jackson on the field at the same time. Split back sets either in the shotgun or under center will keep defenses guessing. Jackson’s receiving prowess prevents the defense from shading to Rodgers’ side of the field much in the same way they would if Turner were on the field with Rodgers. Expect Jackson to post at least a 30 catch season in 2013 as he provides another weapon for Ryan out of the backfield.

Steven Jackson has spent his entire career up until this point watching the playoffs from his couch. He has probably hoped for a chance to be a contributor on a playoff team and have a chance at the ultimate prize. Now he has that chance. With renewed vigor and a sense of excitement, Steven Jackson will do big things in Atlanta. Come playoff time, Jackson could be the difference in hoisting the Lombardi trophy.

http://www.footballandfutbol.com/will-steven-jackson-improve-atlantas-ground-game/

"Prior to the arrival of offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter last year, we used to spend a lot of time busting on the Atlanta Falcons for almost never using screen passes.

A lot of people are viewing the arrival of Steven Jackson as Turner’s replacement as evidence that Atlanta’s running game will improve. I have no doubt that will happen.

But I think a lot of people are only looking at half of what Jackson brings to the table. Jackson is one of the best pass-catching running backs in recent history.

In fact, I just dialed up the database at ESPN Stats & Information and came up with something interesting. Since his arrival in the league in 2004, Jackson’s 407 receptions are the most by any running back in that period.

For the sake of comparison, the only other running backs with more than 300 catches during that same span are Brian Westbrook (396), LaDainian Tomlinson (386), Reggie Bush(372), Frank Gore (315), Ray Rice (311) and Darren Sproles (307).

I’m pretty sure we can expect to see some new wrinkles from Koetter because Jackson can do more than catch screen passes. He can run a lot of different routes. Rodgers can do the same.

That’s going to create all sorts of headaches for defenses that already have their hands full with Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez.

Even coach Mike Smith, who usually goes out of his way to not give away anything close to strategy is raving about Jackson's ability as a receiver.

“He’s a big strong running back that catches the ball extremely well,'' Smith told the media Wednesday. "He creates issues for defenses. He’s just another weapon that we have in our offensive arsenal. He’s a guy who had close to 100 catches in a season, so he’s a guy that we can use in the passing game. He’s not just a running back, he’s a receiving back as well.” http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcsouth/post/_/id/48112/on-steven-jackson-and-the-passing-game

There might have been a reason why predecessor Mike Mularkey was so hesitant to throw to his running backs. Michael Turner simply wasn’t a receiving threat. In five seasons with the Falcons, Turner caught 59 passes. Koetter got the running backs more involved in the passing game last season, mainly by throwing to Jacquizz Rodgers a fair amount. But I suspect we could see that trend escalate tremendously in 2013. "

I agree with the floor for Jackson in number of receptions being 30. He has averaged 45/season over his career. I think the ceiling is 60 possibly more if they do use him often on screens and other passing plays. I do not see Rodgers cutting into his targets much.

If Gonzalez declines this could lead to them throwing to the RB more. But I would not be surprised if Gonzalez keeps performing at a high level.

So 30-60 receptions is what I am expecting. The median of that would be 45.

 

[apalmer]

It's the first freaking preseason game. Overreact much?

I agree that 95% of these comments are due to overreaction. However, did you watch the game?? He did look a bit slow and bit of a plodder. I also got the strange feeling he was barely trying.

Think maybe the last sentence is a big part of the reason for the sentence before it? Preseason game 1 and the veterans aren't about to go all out.

 

[Nucker101]

It's the first freaking preseason game. Overreact much?

I agree that 95% of these comments are due to overreaction. However, did you watch the game?? He did look a bit slow and bit of a plodder. I also got the strange feeling he was barely trying.

Think maybe the last sentence is a big part of the reason for the sentence before it? Preseason game 1 and the veterans aren't about to go all out.

I agree, I realize that there's a fine line about putting too much stock into pre-season and not enough into it, but I'd be more concerned if the Falcons beat writers watching him in camp had also said that he looks a big slow/sluggish. Jackson really has nothing to gain in the first pre-season game. If he struggles in the third game as well then I'd start to raise my eyebrows a little bit if I owned him or had a draft still coming up. That being said, he'll still be in line for double digit TD's this season in the Falcons offense IMO.

 

[Shutout]

IF Jackson fails, it will almost certainly be because his O-line sucks beyond belief, not because of the mileage on his legs.

And thats my point, people disregard the mileage and think he is now a top 10 rb because he is on the Falcons, it doesnt work like that.

Thats an insane amount of punishment to put on your body and the fact that everything was already trending down is pretty telling.

Please describe this trending down.

Cumulative carries has been studied very thoroughly and the only decent conclusion one will arrive at is that a RB who has had a lot of carries is much more likely to receive a lot of carries in the future than a player who has not. This idea of a player wearing down because of mileage it a complete myth.

Unless its Arian Foster. Then he's already got one foot in the grave because people can't seem to stand to accept how good he has been without manufacturing something.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I am not buying he has lost a step from last year. I am assuming there are very few of you that watched much of Jackson last year that are coming up with this conclusion. He was not fast last year either really. However he was also not slow. Jackson has great vision and is a vicious runner. Go and watch his highlights from last year. He is not as fast as he was when he was 21, but he really does not need to be to be a very productive RB even at age 30.

Looking at 5 pre season carries and trying to analyse how much he has lost is a joke right? Those of you saying he has lost a step had to be looking for it with a bias. Jackson is a big RB and a couple of those plays were blown up quick. Barry Sanders in his prime is not making those plays. Take a breath and relax. He is a work out freak and takes care of his body. He is going to be really good in this offense.

This line is not great, but neither was his O line in St. Louis last year where he combined for 1350 yards.

Don't over think it. Jackson's floor is 1400 combined yards with 10 TDs with an intriguing ceiling of 1700 combined yards with 15 td's.

Just so I'm following you. Jackson floor is 1400/10? The evidence you use is last year when he had 1350/4.

It's not like he just went from a pass happy team to a run happy team either. STL finished 22nd in rush attempts and 15th in yards per rush. ATL last year finished 26th in rush attempts and 29th in yards per rush. He's not gonna see more carries so he's gonna have to better than the 4.1 average he had last year in STL. But only Matt Ryan and Julio Jones rushed for more than 4 yards per. So his increase in production is more than likely going to have to come from pass catching which means he'll have to basically be a 3 down back and take most of the pass catching away from Jacquizz Rodgers. Probably not gonna happen unless Matt Ryan spend the entire season checking down to Jackson on 1st and 2nd down.

IMO, if anything his ceiling is 1400/10, not his floor.

I see his stat line looking something like this:

240-960-7

40-280-1

Not bad by any stretch.

 

[ghostguy123]

Two quick observations.

Yes his ADP is too high, and I mean even before this meaningless preseason game.

Yes he will have a productive season.

So yeah, he has been overrated all summer, but overrated doesn't mean he won't do well.

 

[Slapdash]

Jackson and Turner had similar years of production in 2012. I don't expect Jackson to do significantly better or worse in Turner's role. Probably not a lot of tread left on these tires.

 

[Art Vandalay]

I think Corey dillon had a whole lot of carries if you prefer that example before his big year in NE

 

[Kenny Powers]

The Bungals have a pretty good defense. Just saying.

 

[RBM]

I'd be shocked at anything less than 12 tds

 

[We Tigers]

It's the first freaking preseason game. Overreact much?

I agree that 95% of these comments are due to overreaction. However, did you watch the game?? He did look a bit slow and bit of a plodder. I also got the strange feeling he was barely trying.

Think maybe the last sentence is a big part of the reason for the sentence before it? Preseason game 1 and the veterans aren't about to go all out.

Ding ding ding. Jackson never has to do much in the preseason. He's got nothing he needs to prove.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I am not buying he has lost a step from last year. I am assuming there are very few of you that watched much of Jackson last year that are coming up with this conclusion. He was not fast last year either really. However he was also not slow. Jackson has great vision and is a vicious runner. Go and watch his highlights from last year. He is not as fast as he was when he was 21, but he really does not need to be to be a very productive RB even at age 30.

Looking at 5 pre season carries and trying to analyse how much he has lost is a joke right? Those of you saying he has lost a step had to be looking for it with a bias. Jackson is a big RB and a couple of those plays were blown up quick. Barry Sanders in his prime is not making those plays. Take a breath and relax. He is a work out freak and takes care of his body. He is going to be really good in this offense.

This line is not great, but neither was his O line in St. Louis last year where he combined for 1350 yards.

Don't over think it. Jackson's floor is 1400 combined yards with 10 TDs with an intriguing ceiling of 1700 combined yards with 15 td's.

Just so I'm following you. Jackson floor is 1400/10? The evidence you use is last year when he had 1350/4.

It's not like he just went from a pass happy team to a run happy team either. STL finished 22nd in rush attempts and 15th in yards per rush. ATL last year finished 26th in rush attempts and 29th in yards per rush. He's not gonna see more carries so he's gonna have to better than the 4.1 average he had last year in STL. But only Matt Ryan and Julio Jones rushed for more than 4 yards per. So his increase in production is more than likely going to have to come from pass catching which means he'll have to basically be a 3 down back and take most of the pass catching away from Jacquizz Rodgers. Probably not gonna happen unless Matt Ryan spend the entire season checking down to Jackson on 1st and 2nd down.

IMO, if anything his ceiling is 1400/10, not his floor.

I see his stat line looking something like this:

240-960-7

40-280-1

Not bad by any stretch.

You misread my post. I said combined yards. not rushing yards. I will stand by 1400 combined yards and 10 tds as his floor.

 

[Biabreakable]

IMO, if anything his ceiling is 1400/10, not his floor.

I see his stat line looking something like this:

240-960-7

40-280-1

Not bad by any stretch.

Here is Steven Jacksons total yards/season excluding his rookie season-

1366 (15 games)
2334
1273 (12 games)
1421 (12 games)
1738 (15 games)
1624
1478 (15 games)
1363

Jackson missed 11 out of the 128 possible games. How many are you projecting for him to miss in 2013?

When I adjust these totals for yards/game that equals 107.666ypg. Projecting 16 games played the average combined yards/season has been 1722 combined yards.

Looks like your projecting Jackson to miss 4-6 games if that is your expectation.

 

[Grahamburn]

The Bungals have a pretty good defense. Just saying.

Amazing how much overreaction there can be to 5 carries against a top tier D in the preseason.

 

[rizzler]

The Bungals have a pretty good defense. Just saying.

Amazing how much overreaction there can be to 5 carries against a top tier D in the preseason.

hint hint: if the #1 RBs arent going full tilt, neither is the 1st team defense.

 

[Grahamburn]

The Bungals have a pretty good defense. Just saying.

Amazing how much overreaction there can be to 5 carries against a top tier D in the preseason.

hint hint: if the #1 RBs arent going full tilt, neither is the 1st team defense.

Feel free to go away at any time.

 

[Sabertooth]

Steven meet wall

Wall meet Steven.

 

[rizzler]

The Bungals have a pretty good defense. Just saying.

Amazing how much overreaction there can be to 5 carries against a top tier D in the preseason.

hint hint: if the #1 RBs arent going full tilt, neither is the 1st team defense.

Feel free to go away at any time.

why? because common sense in being thrown in your face?

listen, if you think SJax is going to rush for 1400yds and 12tds, good for you. draft him accordingly.

The rest of us are treading lightly, and not liking how he looks.