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Not so much on my own. Own a little PSX and  XOM through our FA, but that's it.

I'm reading up more and more on futures contracts as my goal is start trading oil futures. I'm debating taking a 30 hour course on it, although it's kinda expensive, although with the amount you can lose on futures it might be worth it. 

I've got two good buddies that both work in finance (specifically within commodities)... They feed me information, nothing illegal, all public stuff, just stuff the common investor (like myself) doesn't think of or know of. When they're both on the same side of a trade, I always jump on board.

They both agree trading the oil etfs are unsustainable as the oil market and gains slow. These things will lose more than win even if oil just trickles up slowly as opposed to the big gains it has seen over the last few months. If WTI was to gain 2-3% in a month, good chance UWTI would be down.

 
Anyone get in oil last week? I'm debating taking some profits as WTI fights with $50. Brent has taken $50, I'll be more bullish if it could hold and close over $50.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Anyone get in oil last week? I'm debating taking some profits as WTI fights with $50. Brent has taken $50, I'll be more bullish if it could hold and close over $50.
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I took a small position of UCO at $12.81. I might get out with a quick 3% as I agree with what you wrote before about the leveraged funds not holding water without the violent swings.

 
skycriesmary said:
I took a small position of UCO at $12.81. I might get out with a quick 3% as I agree with what you wrote before about the leveraged funds not holding water without the violent swings.




 
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Out at $13.14, profit of $82.50. That should cover a couple cups of coffee. :confetti:

 
Bought a bunch of ARMGP today.  7% yield preferred - nice high income and rated as investment grade - a real rarity these days.  I fully expect some price appreciation here as these kind of income issues have been going nuts lately.  Gotta get in very early.  This one is a bit of a strange duck in that it issues a K-1 at tax time.  I have some other MLPs, so this doesn't bother me much.

Not seeing a lot in stock space that looks enticing.  Most of the types of stocks I like a pretty expensive right now.  This is a reasonable filler for now.

 
Sand said:
Bought a bunch of ARMGP today.  7% yield preferred - nice high income and rated as investment grade - a real rarity these days.  I fully expect some price appreciation here as these kind of income issues have been going nuts lately.  Gotta get in very early.  This one is a bit of a strange duck in that it issues a K-1 at tax time.  I have some other MLPs, so this doesn't bother me much.

Not seeing a lot in stock space that looks enticing.  Most of the types of stocks I like a pretty expensive right now.  This is a reasonable filler for now.




 
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Hmm, this might be a nice long-term vehicle for my Roth...

 
Sand said:
It is a non-cumulative, so do you due diligence and make sure you're comfortable with it.  Link.
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Thanks, much appreciated. Having 5 years before I can touch it does give me a bit of pause, but I might take a small amount just the same. Non-cumulative, so SOL with missed payments...

 
Yellen is delusional.  Market is almost on track?  We all know these numbers are crap.  Gold is going up through the roof.  

Even if I took away :

*Seniors that truly have a net worth and have no need to work.
*People on true disability who cannot work.
*Infants, small wildlife, etc.

The number of people who are not in the labor force who could be in the labor force is staggering.

The Fed needs to raise rates as fast as it can. Or so they want to but they know they cannot do that. They need to raise rates so they can appear to have some sort of control over the economy. They need to get rates up over 2% maybe even to 2.5%. Why?
So they have room to cut at least 10 times at 1/4 point each to appear in control. 

End of story. They know not one person, economist, even the FED itself has uttered the words "Economic Expansion" since 2009. They only use the word "recovery". Never before in the history of the country has the word recovery been used to describe the economy for this long. Ever.

It is all a farce. The Fed however are no bunch of dummies. 
*They know the real unemployment rate is double digits.
*They know 45 millions Americans are still on food stamps.
*They know the student debt bubble (which will NEVER be paid back) is going to burst.
*They know that 50% of all Americans working earn $30K/ year or less and many, many families work 2 & 3 jobs just to break even each month.

Want to go see labor market slack? Leave whatever job you are doing at 2:00 PM today. (Make sure it is past lunch hour) Get outside for a few hours. Drive around. By the time you are done you are going to be wondering as well why it appears so many people are independently wealthy and do not have to work.

 
skycriesmary said:
Thanks, much appreciated. Having 5 years before I can touch it does give me a bit of pause, but I might take a small amount just the same. Non-cumulative, so SOL with missed payments...
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The 5 years just means they can call it back at par 5 years from now (they're not obligated to, but can).   You can sell these on the open market at any time (limit orders are a very good idea).  BTW, this ticker will change to probably ARES-A and go on the NYSE in a bit.  

On your other question these issues are rate sensitive as they have some bond like qualities, but tend to move less than the common in a market correction.  That is as long as the market correction doesn't involve a risk of all credit markets seizing like in 2008 - preferreds and bonds took big hits in that one, too.  These are their own beasts and need to be looked at as such.

 
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Sand said:
The 5 years just means they can call it back at par 5 years from now (they're not obligated to, but can).   You can sell these on the open market at any time (limit orders are a very good idea).  BTW, this ticker will change to probably ARES-A and go on the NYSE in a bit.  

On your other question these issues are rate sensitive as they have some bond like qualities, but tend to move less than the common in a market correction.  That is as long as the market correction doesn't involve a risk of all credit markets seizing like in 2008 - preferreds and bonds took big hits in that one, too.  These are their own beasts and need to be looked at as such.




 
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Thanks for the feedback, I'll take the plunge for a small % of my portfolio. 

 
When you are calculating your plus/minus on a stock holding, are you including your returns via dividend into your calculations?  I ask because Fidelity includes that acquisition into your listed basis and I think of dividend as my profit, even when I am reinvesting it.

 
dschuler said:
Yellen is delusional.  Market is almost on track?  We all know these numbers are crap.  Gold is going up through the roof.  

Even if I took away :

*Seniors that truly have a net worth and have no need to work.
*People on true disability who cannot work.
*Infants, small wildlife, etc.

The number of people who are not in the labor force who could be in the labor force is staggering.

The Fed needs to raise rates as fast as it can. Or so they want to but they know they cannot do that. They need to raise rates so they can appear to have some sort of control over the economy. They need to get rates up over 2% maybe even to 2.5%. Why?
So they have room to cut at least 10 times at 1/4 point each to appear in control. 

End of story. They know not one person, economist, even the FED itself has uttered the words "Economic Expansion" since 2009. They only use the word "recovery". Never before in the history of the country has the word recovery been used to describe the economy for this long. Ever.

It is all a farce. The Fed however are no bunch of dummies. 
*They know the real unemployment rate is double digits.
*They know 45 millions Americans are still on food stamps.
*They know the student debt bubble (which will NEVER be paid back) is going to burst.
*They know that 50% of all Americans working earn $30K/ year or less and many, many families work 2 & 3 jobs just to break even each month.

Want to go see labor market slack? Leave whatever job you are doing at 2:00 PM today. (Make sure it is past lunch hour) Get outside for a few hours. Drive around. By the time you are done you are going to be wondering as well why it appears so many people are independently wealthy and do not have to work.
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Yes it all a farce but the Federal Reserve narrative (what the Federal Reserve says about the economy or they will or will not do) is the market truth until it isn't.  The markets are not designed to ferret out such deep truths about the economy.  We are all supposed to trust authority like Tim and go along with what they say and not oppose it.  The Federal Reserve opinion always has a positive bias, if the Federal Reserve narrative is the economy is improving, then the economy is improving even if it isn't and you can't fight it in the day to day trading markets.  You can only fight a wrong Federal Reserve opinion as an individual over very long term decadal positions in counter traditional investments.  This is impossible for almost everyone because individuals have limited resources and all have expenses and have to eventually sell.   So the truth doesn't matter and the Federal Reserve narrative, true or false, rules the day until it doesn't.  Good luck as an individual trying to get a counter position in the day before, American citizens will be the last to know, other countries and rich foreign insiders will know first.  When the Federal Reserve narrative has been wrong all along, it all ends in spectacular fashion.  Well if they are wrong and its going to all blow up in spectacular fashion shouldnt this bother the Federal Reserve you might say?  No it does not bother them, this inevitabilty which would greatly distress individuals who would prefer to make the right decisions and not have wrong decision blow up later on their watch, does not bother the Federal Reserve because they are essentially government, because when it becomes serious goverment has to lie, and government has much different priorities than individuals, the most pertinent being their day to day control, not some far off event on someone elses watch.

 
The Big Guy said:
When you are calculating your plus/minus on a stock holding, are you including your returns via dividend into your calculations?  I ask because Fidelity includes that acquisition into your listed basis and I think of dividend as my profit, even when I am reinvesting it.
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Two different things here - a dividend isn't normally part of the basis of a stock unless it is classified as ROC(return of capital).  Now if you have things set to automatically reinvest then that dividend money goes back into the stock for more shares so it does affect your overall basis.

I absolutely count dividends as my profit - that few percent really adds up over time.  Very nice when my cash in the account reaches the point where I can initiate another position.  I get to go hunting again. 

 
My better half wants to move a LOT of money to cash now for a possible down payment before the end of the year. I suggested we leave it alone until we need it. Thoughts? Where could I go to learn more about market outlook?

 
mrip541 said:
My better half wants to move a LOT of money to cash now for a possible down payment before the end of the year. I suggested we leave it alone until we need it. Thoughts? Where could I go to learn more about market outlook?
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Usually not best to try and time the market...

Where is this money? Will you be looking at taxable gains if it's cashed out?

I wouldn't suggest having your house down payment in stocks due to the swings of the market.

 
eoMMan said:
Usually not best to try and time the market...

Where is this money? Will you be looking at taxable gains if it's cashed out?

I wouldn't suggest having your house down payment in stocks due to the swings of the market.
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She wants to clear out a Betterment account with minimal gains. It's been down for a good while and now that it's up a little bit she wants to sell sell sell. It took me years to get her to move her money out of a savings account so I'm afraid we're headed back to the dark ages.

 
mrip541 said:
My better half wants to move a LOT of money to cash now for a possible down payment before the end of the year. I suggested we leave it alone until we need it. Thoughts? Where could I go to learn more about market outlook?
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Something like that isn't worth it to #### around with, IMO, even if it doesn't make the most technical sense financially. Just speaking from a quality of life standpoint. If there is a real correction and you find yourself needing to delay making that down payment, you don't want her beating you to death with it all those months. Even if you only lose maybe $10K in cash, that's $50K in house that you're affording. Think of those comments when you can't afford to meet the asking price and find yourselves looking at a lower quality house.

We don't own, and likely won't buy for at least a few years anyway. Still though, the only way I got my wife comfortable with not having our money earning **** in a savings account or CDs was to carve away a big chunk of money, enough to cover the down payment we'd need, plus closing costs, furnishing a house, etc and leave that sitting in online savings. The rest is invested. That way even if the market goes to hell, we'll still have that money to buy. 

Happy wife, happy life.

 
mrip541 said:
She wants to clear out a Betterment account with minimal gains. It's been down for a good while and now that it's up a little bit she wants to sell sell sell. It took me years to get her to move her money out of a savings account so I'm afraid we're headed back to the dark ages.
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Yeah, if it's minimal gains and will give her peace of mind, get out asap.

Can you imagine if you kept it in and when you need it for the down payment, the market dove 10% or so? You would never hear the end of it.

Keep it in a low risk MM account.

 
mrip541 said:
My better half wants to move a LOT of money to cash now for a possible down payment before the end of the year. I suggested we leave it alone until we need it. Thoughts? Where could I go to learn more about market outlook?
Click to expand...
Move it out.  Never feel guilty about taking gains and making them real.  If you are really going to spend this money in months it doesn't need to be anywhere near the markets.  Find an online FDIC insured place that has a decent rate and stash it there.

 
Sand said:
Move it out.  Never feel guilty about taking gains and making them real.  If you are really going to spend this money in months it doesn't need to be anywhere near the markets.  Find an online FDIC insured place that has a decent rate and stash it there.
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Cap1 according to Nerdwallet is about 1%, I don't think you'll do much better.

 
WTI first close over $50 since last year. 

Here is what I'm expecting from the API at 430:

3M draw on crude

1M draw on gasoline

500k draw on distillate 

 
Sand said:
Bought a bunch of ARMGP today.  7% yield preferred - nice high income and rated as investment grade - a real rarity these days.  I fully expect some price appreciation here as these kind of income issues have been going nuts lately.  Gotta get in very early.  This one is a bit of a strange duck in that it issues a K-1 at tax time.  I have some other MLPs, so this doesn't bother me much.

Not seeing a lot in stock space that looks enticing.  Most of the types of stocks I like a pretty expensive right now.  This is a reasonable filler for now.
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In the little research I've done, it seems that fixed income issues with a K1 generally don't have to be reported to IRS if managed within a non-Roth IRA, so long as the income isn't huge (UBTI less than $1,000; which should be fine if I'm buying about 25 racks of this). I would just have the regular dividends and gains taxed at the time of retirement.   Does that sound about right?

 
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Johnnymac said:
It's up to you.  I'm holding, still believe this company is going to be bought out.  Don't blame you if you decide to dump it though, very frustrating stock to own.
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I got out at $3.25 a few weeks ago just before this nice run up. Frustrating indeed but the dip into the 2s scared me. Made 5%. Whoopee! I'd sell here in a heartbeat, obviously, considering I sold 25% ago.

 
Another hot stock tomorrow guys...

GEVO

I might buy 5000 shares. Just don't know if I should put in order at the open or wait for a dip. 

 
OLED,  the king of disruptive technologies, I'm sticking with it..   OLED won the display wars, it is going to eat the LCD market everywhere and spawn new markets like VR and automotive windshield displays.  Apple is converting to OLED.  Even if the economy grinds to a total halt, OLED will grow because it will feed off the demise of LCD.  Still a relatively unknown company, the big houses aren't even covering yet BECAUSE THEY ARE TRYING TO ACCUMULATE AND CANT BECAUSE OF LOW FLOAT AND LONG TERM JERKS LIKE ME WHO REFUSE TO SELL.  Very low number of shares outstanding.

Long since 5, currently 70.  

 
NREC34 said:
Not selling this one too soon like I did with MGT
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I see that their particular product is proprietary but are there other competitors doing something similar that could scale this quicker, to your knowledge?

 
Thinking about buying some Goldman Sachs at these levels. Anyone with a crystal ball? What happens to GS when rates hike a bit?

 
Exited UWTI for a profit of $12,500.

Small position in DWTI at $69.70, closing it EOD no matter what, but a tight stop if WTI crosses $50.10

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Exited UWTI for a profit of $12,500.

Small position in DWTI at $69.70, closing it EOD no matter what, but a tight stop if WTI crosses $50.10
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Out at $70.04 for a profit of $514 :confetti:

Hoping for more rigs accompanied by an overreaction of selling to get back into a long position. No gonna hold through Baker Hughes though, too much risk and gamble involved.

 
Standing PAT on oil. 

Odd after a years worth of trading oil stuff back and forth almost daily to be hanging in there like this but I'm still happy with my positions - even in the ETF stuff.  I think we're more likely to see $60 than $40

 
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