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Stock Thread (17 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Sand
Footballguy
The street was obviously expecting gonzo numbers and didn't quite get them. Dunno. Luckily I sold a bit a couple weeks back and am just holding the rest. They are acting like an early Amazon with everything being put back into the company. I expect after a while (particularly when their salary bonus structure cools off as they said it would) we'll see this take off.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Will the infrastructure bill funnel money to Canadian companies like BLDP? Seriously asking because I haven’t really looked into it but I remember that there was a lot of talk about keeping the funds going to American companies.
Todem
Footballguy
Something interesting that made the decision to sell and take the profit today on RBLX. I checked option action for APR 22 expirations.
The 105 call and put were almost the same exact price.
Premium of $17.
Call is in the money and the put is even.......that is incredibly telling of the bearish sentiment on the stock and that this is a classic short squeeze today. It may have a little more juice for a few more days....but I don’t need to stick around to find out......54% inside 6 months is ridiculous on a highly speculative stock that relies on pure subscriptions and pay to play micro transactions. While the model is good......it will be able to be bought back again at some point and traded again.
This is not some life changing company.
The 105 call and put were almost the same exact price.
Premium of $17.
Call is in the money and the put is even.......that is incredibly telling of the bearish sentiment on the stock and that this is a classic short squeeze today. It may have a little more juice for a few more days....but I don’t need to stick around to find out......54% inside 6 months is ridiculous on a highly speculative stock that relies on pure subscriptions and pay to play micro transactions. While the model is good......it will be able to be bought back again at some point and traded again.
This is not some life changing company.
Todem
Footballguy
The quarter was weaker than expected......again for me this is 2023 and beyond story.
The volatility of this stock can be traded...no doubt. It is a risky risky stock. But I believe in the IP they have and I believe Hydrogen Cell technology is going to be the absolute future in commercial transportation.
They also increased their cash reserves over 200%. Very nice.
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Desert_Power
Footballguy
Something up with IPOF today 
McBokonon
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
So far the results look pretty good overall. Some stocks getting hit because they ran up like crazy and needed blowouts, which is expected. $PUBM crushed it.
McBokonon
Footballguy
UPST the only one getting really pummeled for me. Still up over 200% in 6 months and the report was great. Needed to be amazing stupendous though.
Yeah, I don’t get the drop of 20%. They beat the numbers they raised last quarter and then raised Q4 guidance. COIN missed badly (25% short on revenue) and is down 10%. I might be tempted to add to UPST as I think it’s overblown. Heck their results were better than RBLX!
Lots of mixed reactions. PUBM and NARI did very well. FLGT looks good too. We’ll see in the morning as some of my stocks appeared to do well but are very thinly traded.
Fulgent destroyed https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/fulgent-genetics-reports-third-quarter-financial-results-2021-11-09
raises guidance
raises guidance
I’m like @McBokonon where I bought and added in the $80-120 range but still hurts. Sucks because it appears they did do well. Sometimes AHs is a little deceiving, who knows. I’ve had stocks well in the red that did great when the lights went on or vice versa.
Gotta love a war chest that will be around $1B by end of the year and a $2.3B market cap. Core revenue alone is a P/S of 20 for 2021 which isn’t bad for 215% growth. That’s ignoring the other $815M in revenue since it’s COVID related. Love that they have no need to dilute shares because they’ve got plenty of cash to expand revenue streams like the cancer testing they acquired which isn’t part of this quarter.
Caveman33
Footballguy
My shares sold at 108.20 which I think was a poor price target. I had intended to be just under 40%, not over. Too often it seems like my limits are set on the wrong side of the action. So they will narrowly miss triggering repeatedly or if they do trigger, it's while the price immediately runs by. Maybe I'm suffering from confirmation bias. I was really wishing I could update my limit order while getting lunch at the homeless shelter this afternoon.
Sand
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
It’s just a function of this specific company and COVID. They do genetic testing and came public not too long before COVID and rapidly pivoted to developing COVID tests. This was a testament to their platform but they also made an unexpected windfall from the COVID tests. This sudden infusion of gigantic piles of cash has made the PE really low. Investors, I guess, still see it as a COVID story which is why the PE multiple expansion hasn’t happened yet, but keep in mind that these people are dumb and we are very smart.
Neither really in a true sense. They aren’t a company with no future or a company that’s just been ignored. It’s a genetics (now cancer too) testing company that jumped in quickly to COVID testing and made bank. Investors and the company know those revenues will go away at some point. That’s why every quarter this year they break our core testing revenue as well. The COVID testing revenues/earnings are so big that their metrics are off, but they do show two things, they’ve got a war chest of “free” money to help the business and they displayed a serious ability to capitalize on new testing opportunities. Not saying a COVID will come around every couple years but it’s damn impressive that a micro cap came out of genetics testing and made a billion dollars in revenue from it. It makes me feel good about acquisitions and new revenue streams for future growth. They demonstrated some serious ability to quickly create revenue outside their core.
Did I miss the news where Covid has been cured?
Also, two things will be needed to take the new PFE pill. 1) Covid. 2) A positive Covid test. The holiday gatherings and winter should create another surge
I haven't found clear numbers yet, but it's likely FLGT has now squirreled away 1/2 of it's market cap in cash.
KGB
Footballguy
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/09/rivian-prices-ipo-at-78-a-share-valuing-company-at-66point5-billion.html
I may wait for the pull back on the ipo.
I may wait for the pull back on the ipo.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
KGB
Footballguy
Yeah, I dont have sofi, otherwise I would for sure.
I bet it booms to 125+ and then drops back down. We shall see!!!!
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
I'm eyeing Moderna at these levels. Anyone else?
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Good year, thinking about selling the losers now to offset gains, instead of waiting until next month, with the herd. It's been a good couple weeks. Thoughts?
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
If anyone has POSH, it's down 30% premarket
beef
Footballguy
Yep. I bought 100 shares and kind of wish I bought more but with a ton of TTD, I’m chock full o ad tech.Another great call, my man!
Re: PUBM
Here’s hoping all the nice pops cancel out the earnings drops. I do take comfort in the fact that all the drops still appear to have had solid reports just not solid enough. Nice FVRR report this morning helps!
The meme stocks are impossible to predict. DASH killing it and they had a bigger loss than expected even with a 10% revenue beat. Acquiring an $8B company doesn’t drop the stock? U beat on revenue by almost the same amount and beat earnings to and are down because of an acquisition, which makes sense. An acquisition is risky, no guarantee that it ends up working out and DASH is paying twice what the valuation of the company was earlier in the year. It’s dilutive to DASH shareholders because you have to pay a premium to the new company so those shareholders get extra. Also, the biggest issue IMHO is that we are two years into the pandemic and DASH is losing more than expected on better revenues. That was the concern from the start, making money. Oh well, it’ll be fun to watch.
The meme stocks are impossible to predict. DASH killing it and they had a bigger loss than expected even with a 10% revenue beat. Acquiring an $8B company doesn’t drop the stock? U beat on revenue by almost the same amount and beat earnings to and are down because of an acquisition, which makes sense. An acquisition is risky, no guarantee that it ends up working out and DASH is paying twice what the valuation of the company was earlier in the year. It’s dilutive to DASH shareholders because you have to pay a premium to the new company so those shareholders get extra. Also, the biggest issue IMHO is that we are two years into the pandemic and DASH is losing more than expected on better revenues. That was the concern from the start, making money. Oh well, it’ll be fun to watch.
McBokonon
Footballguy
I think U was dropping with or without the acquisition since it’s nearly doubled in six months. That acquisition (Peter Jackson VFX company) looks pretty exciting.
That’s probably true. I think some stocks were going to drop regardless. UPST, I get although unlike U, it had already dropped almost 25% from the peak. U was still peaking. I need to figure out if I want to add UPST. I have a decent chunk well in the money. I was going to buy some more U way back near $80-100. I regret not buying a bit more but I’ve got a full share of it now anyway.
McBokonon
Footballguy
I’m considering buying more, too. Not sure if it will be today but we’ll see. It’ll still be a double for me even after today’s pummeling. Maybe add a little and wait a week.
I’ll add to $GLBE, though. I think it’s still relatively unknown and all of the events I was waiting for have happened.
I added some on Friday when it was $52. Seemed like a good report, did you see any red flags? It’s not well covered.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
If I may chime in on the earnings obsession thing here. Seems to be a theme, although I could be wrong. As traders, fine, but that's a different game altogether. I much prefer the takes you guys give on companies that are on a longer-term trajectory.
Like, how did the Amazon disappointment a week ago end up? Uh, up like 100 bucks yesterday and now approaching $3600. But OMG, online sales!!! Meanwhile, that tech brain trust beast with a treasure trust is worth betting on, trust me.
I keep reading how this company beat this or didn't beat that and how can the market react as such? Hello, the market is a discount mechanism, and even though quarters are exciting when they out-perform or whatever, the focus on that kind of stuff just helps to lose site of the end-game.
I used to tell clients, are you going to sell your house if every time you drive into your driveway, the new "adjusted" price on your garage keeps going lower? No, of course not. These quarters and trying to over-analyze them like you're about to blow a game like John Fox are just one play in the bigger scheme of things.
If they are positioned and on point, then try and stay the course.
Like, how did the Amazon disappointment a week ago end up? Uh, up like 100 bucks yesterday and now approaching $3600. But OMG, online sales!!! Meanwhile, that tech brain trust beast with a treasure trust is worth betting on, trust me.
I keep reading how this company beat this or didn't beat that and how can the market react as such? Hello, the market is a discount mechanism, and even though quarters are exciting when they out-perform or whatever, the focus on that kind of stuff just helps to lose site of the end-game.
I used to tell clients, are you going to sell your house if every time you drive into your driveway, the new "adjusted" price on your garage keeps going lower? No, of course not. These quarters and trying to over-analyze them like you're about to blow a game like John Fox are just one play in the bigger scheme of things.
If they are positioned and on point, then try and stay the course.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
Macro?
October CPI coming in hot at 6.6% YOY
gidde up
October CPI coming in hot at 6.6% YOY
gidde up
McBokonon
Footballguy
It’s possible to do both. I think we’re in this thread because we enjoy discussing the stock market and quarterly reports (which actually are important) are fun to talk about for people who like the stock market. Just because we talk about the quarters doesn’t mean we’re making wholesale investment philosophy changes every three months.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I think your last sentence is what I care about. I don’t buy or sell on earnings. I don’t sell much at all, but I do like to see if growth is accelerating, decelerating, etc. like you said, are they on course. Many tech stocks trade at high multiples so it’s good to see any cracking (or good stories) early.
I will say that for companies I have recommended and want to buy, I try to buy (some) before earnings as there are big pops all the time.
Capella
Footballguy
Lol I complain about amazon and haven’t sold a share in years. What’s the point of ummmm…..a discussion board if we aren’t going to discuss things?
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
I love the discussion, here for it, perhaps I didn't get my point across.
It seems to me that these quarterly reports are sat on with pins and needles at times. Not needed, unless you're a trader (in which case this is not where to be). The overall emphasis on some of them is overdone.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Part of the point I'm making is that there is so much more in an earnings report that we don't see / aren't told, that it can be a futile effort in trying to get a true gauge on where things are going, exactly. Maybe if you're in the industry. MAYBE. But thinking you've got a handle on any industry -- much less a bevy of companies -- you're not directly involved in, due to their quarterly reports, is silly, like showing up to a game in the 2nd half.
The big picture, however, that you can rely on. If you have the patience and wherewithal.
The big picture, however, that you can rely on. If you have the patience and wherewithal.
Capella
Footballguy
In the market, sure. People panic all the time because they’re dumb idiots. I think most of us are just sitting on our fat butts at home or work and discussing the goings on.
