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Stock Thread (19 Viewers)

McBokonon said:
And they’re starting to tie in the entire justice ecosystem, with the newest component being Axon Justice to streamline the whole discovery process. You can pretty much say “why doesn’t big tech yada yada” about basically anything so that’s always a risk, I guess. I read something a while back saying Axon is kind of turning into Salesforce in that basically anybody connected to the justice system will need an Axon Specialist on staff to handle their evidence management systems and everything around that. I imagine one jurisdiction will want to be connected to all the others and you’re not gonna do that with Oracle. Not a perfect analogy but pretty good.


I also think “moat” gets thrown around a little too easily. Companies just don’t have “moats” right out of the gate. When you’re investing in growth companies, one of the things you hope for is they develop a moat over time. You can’t realistically expect any companies other than the giants who have successfully been at it for a long time to have them (I’m sure there’s exceptions). I’m betting that Axon is off to an excellent start in developing one.

 
How is everyone expecting the Evergrande/real estate situation in China to play out and what effect upon our market?
No idea on the macro level but I don’t think the stocks I have are exposed at all in a materially way like actually having direct risk. I got rid of my only two Chinese stocks with a net profit but well off highs and also decently higher than current prices.

 
How is everyone expecting the Evergrande/real estate situation in China to play out and what effect upon our market?
It's got to cause a credit crunch in China.  But does that have to be bad for US Markets?  Do those seeking credit in China flee to other banks around the world then, or can they (not sure what China's banking laws are)?   I'm curious if any of the money fleeing Evergrande and banks associated with them could come to US Markets and what positive impacts there could be.  

 
I also think “moat” gets thrown around a little too easily. Companies just don’t have “moats” right out of the gate. When you’re investing in growth companies, one of the things you hope for is they develop a moat over time. You can’t realistically expect any companies other than the giants who have successfully been at it for a long time to have them (I’m sure there’s exceptions). I’m betting that Axon is off to an excellent start in developing one.
And that is a excellent way to go about your investing in 99% of the stocks/invesments you buy. 

I make no bones about my area of expertise. Large cap is where I swim. And with that I miss that first initial burst of return....but once I see a company prove to me what I look for....I go in and take the hopefully profitable long term ride. 

Stocks like QS and BLDP (yeah they are dogs right now I get it) are those long shot ponies we try to take with 2-3% of our total portfolio and getting in at the ground floor. And hey they may never pan out. But that is why we really use the smallest portion of our portfolio for those types of stocks. 

It is the same approach I even take at a crap table in Vegas.....the shooter needs to show me he can hit a point or two and roll numbers before I start investing in him/her.

Sounds simple....but it can be just that simple.  

Conservative? Yeah it sure is. But that’s me. I guess you can categorize me as a moderate stock investor who seeks more consistency at the plate vs HR’s and lot’s of strikeouts. 

 
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I'm holding for $190
RE: NRGU @Nick Vermeil

I was holding out for more too.  Not discouraged by the drop back into the low 160's though and even considering adding here.  Kind of hoping for one of those nice 10% drop days to take into the low 150's or even 140's before the end of the year.  I'm not at a full position, but this is one I'd consider going "fullestest" (>2x).  I'm no oil expert, but feel like their run is far from over and $90 barrels are coming (heard a few WS Oil talking heads suggest this) in Q1 2022 and we top that $220 NRGU 52 week high. 

 
RE: NRGU @Nick Vermeil

I was holding out for more too.  Not discouraged by the drop back into the low 160's though and even considering adding here.  Kind of hoping for one of those nice 10% drop days to take into the low 150's or even 140's before the end of the year.  I'm not at a full position, but this is one I'd consider going "fullestest" (>2x).  I'm no oil expert, but feel like their run is far from over and $90 barrels are coming (heard a few WS Oil talking heads suggest this) in Q1 2022 and we top that $220 NRGU 52 week high. 
I'm watching for another entry point...

 
GreenNGold said:
I wouldn't go as far as others as calling this the greatest wealth transfer in human history, but it is certainly up there! 
Here’s another one:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meme-courting-amc-ceo-aron-223837779.html 

Basic summary is that AMC CEO and CFO have sold every share they have except for shares that haven’t vested yet, which they will likely sell as soon as they can. Amazing that people actually think these execs actually care about them. They are dumping shares as fast as they can at prices well above where they could have before the meme price jump.

Estate planning as the excuse is great. That’s when Gates or Bezos sell a $100M in shares but still have billions and billions left not selling every vested share you have. That’s knowing that you are giving free popcorn and I own AMC NFTs to prop up the price so you can get the cash from some rube

 
👍I've been wanting to add to my AXON position and just did today as it hangs around 7 month lows.  
Just added 21 more shares after selling 25% of two stocks I like less. No cash level change just a reallocation.

As anymore dips occur in stocks I really like I think this is the approach. Maybe not sell everything but reduce lower confidence stocks and roll in higher ones while they are depressed a bit. 

 
Bought CVS and will just leave it alone as part of my small but mighty boring part of my portfolio. Probably keep scaling into my growth stuff, too.

 
Bought CVS and will just leave it alone as part of my small but mighty boring part of my portfolio. Probably keep scaling into my growth stuff, too.
It’s sometimes frustrating to see Oracle beat revenue estimates by less than 2% on 6% growth and pop over 10% while you own a stock that blows away estimates but somehow is more vulnerable to inflation than Oracle even though they are basically in the same arena. Definitely a continued flight to safety but bargains usually appear when herds move as they tend to follow trends not start them.

I may need to add some boring names here and there. CVS has been rolling. You think it continues?

 
I may need to add some boring names here and there. CVS has been rolling. You think it continues?
I do. They raised the dividend for the first time in a while which indicates they're comfortable with where they are in absorbing Aetna. It seems like they're successfully but prudently turning into a true one-stop shop for health care. Not expecting rocket ships, just some balance, and they execute as well as anyone.

 
@Todem - what is the plan for EXC? I read they are splitting off part of the company first quarter of '22. Is now a good time to sell? Hold?

This one has been great since I plucked it off your list.  My current plan is long term hold but wondering if you see anything happening once the split happens. Thanks!

 
I make no bones about my area of expertise. Large cap is where I swim. And with that I miss that first initial burst of return....but once I see a company prove to me what I look for....I go in and take the hopefully profitable long term ride. 

....

Conservative? Yeah it sure is. But that’s me. I guess you can categorize me as a moderate stock investor who seeks more consistency at the plate vs HR’s and lot’s of strikeouts. 
I've been hearing and reading a lot more WS Pros talking like this too.  And that 2022 is going to be a year of real profits and balance sheets.    

I know most of my posts here are related to short term plays, and I like to get aggressive with a few, but most of my money is in safer long term plays that I get from you and others.  The amount of money I play with doesn't change much either.  I've increased it since I've done well these past couple of years, but most of those profit takings then go into more of those "conservative" stocks.        

 
@Todem - what is the plan for EXC? I read they are splitting off part of the company first quarter of '22. Is now a good time to sell? Hold?

This one has been great since I plucked it off your list.  My current plan is long term hold but wondering if you see anything happening once the split happens. Thanks!
Still long and strong.

 
I do. They raised the dividend for the first time in a while which indicates they're comfortable with where they are in absorbing Aetna. It seems like they're successfully but prudently turning into a true one-stop shop for health care. Not expecting rocket ships, just some balance, and they execute as well as anyone.


I like CVS a lot, have had it for a while.  I think its starting a new leg up


I aggressively bought when it was around $60 and then sold all around $90.  Got conservative and moved the funds into  Amabonds.  Sometimes you win, sometimes you're a Bozo.

 
AMC Entertainment Form 4 Filings From Thursday Afternoon Showed Sale Of 312.5K Shares By Co. CEO, ~18.3K Shares By Co. CFO On Dec. 7; CEO Continues To Hold ~96K Shares, CFO Has 0 Shares Remaining; Sales Were Pursuant To 10b5-1 Trading Plan


The CEO sold 95% of his shares and the CFO 100% causing a big sell off, as it should.  My 14,  $25 put options expire on 12/18, currently trading at about $26.50.  I  just sold 10 of them at a slight loss.  I was in for $2400 cost and just can't gamble that much money and risk losing it all with such a short time frame.

Pro tip,  if things work out the way they usually do for me, AMC will probably hit $15 by the end of the next week. ;)

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Long term Todem has a great list.  If you're not familiar with this thread Todem actually does this stuff for a living, and blesses us with his knowledge on a regular basis.  Hard to go wrong with that list.  I'm sure someone that has it saved will post it shortly.  If not maybe search on his username in this thread and it should turn up.

Shorter term we all kind of roll with the flow.  As mentioned up above lots of folks throw around names every day.  Right now maybe some of these tech stocks that have sold off bigly?  Although folks seem to anticipate even more of a pullback.
Wasn't able to find it @Todem

 
The CEO sold 95% of his shares and the CFO 100% causing a big sell off, as it should.  My 14,  $25 put options expire on 12/18, currently trading at about $26.50.  I  just sold 10 of them at a slight loss.  I was in for $2400 cost and just can't gamble that much money and risk losing it all with such a short time frame.

Pro tip,  if things work out the way they usually do for me, AMC will probably hit $15 by the end of the next week. ;)


Anyone, thoughts? 

 
Anyone, thoughts? 
I think you did the right thing cutting some loose, at this point the only question is if you should just take the loss and cut them all loose.  They are going to continue to degrade quickly now with time no longer on your side.

Feel like it's a complete gamble right now and hard to predict the next 5 days.  Never great being under water and holding close to expiration.

Seems like you had a quick window last week to get out with a profit, gotta move real fast sometimes.

 
I think you did the right thing cutting some loose, at this point the only question is if you should just take the loss and cut them all loose.  They are going to continue to degrade quickly now with time no longer on your side.

Feel like it's a complete gamble right now and hard to predict the next 5 days.  Never great being under water and holding close to expiration.

Seems like you had a quick window last week to get out with a profit, gotta move real fast sometimes.
Definitely a gamble.  The reason I held some was in the hopes people would read about the CEO & CFO selling their shares and do the same on Monday. 

 
AXON used to be TASR?   Man that brings back memories.  Wish I would have kept a bunch of that and completely forgot about it for two decades.   :kicksrock:

 
From many months ago, but the large-caps on this list are probably still solid:

FDX

PM

AMT

MDU

PFE

BLMN

MGM

BLDP

QS

CAT

NFLX

KO

PEP

NKE

DE

CMI

MRK

BMY

PG

WMT

LMT

DEO

TSCO

GLPI

EBS - Tax harvested this position

GIS

RTX

GCV (Convertible Bonds)

ADX (for those with much smaller amounts looking for a well managed large growth closed end fund)


I know you can add LYB, DOW, AMZN, EXC, and DIS to this list.  EBS was removed.

 
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Correct ... and BLDP and QS were both identified as more long shots but potential to be ten baggers. I keep an ongoing todem list to remind me not to go off the rails with too much risk.
Good point here.  I love the long shots like coin base and gme, but I keep growing with apple, Amazon, and quality dividend companies like reality income and kinder Morgan.

 
Is anyone still into SPACs?  How about GGPI?  Tentatively expected to merge towards middle of next year with Polestar, an electric car maker under Volvo ownership.  With shares slipping to around $11.50, I'm thinking it could be a good time to buy and sell Feb $15 calls for .85.  It's unlikely this will trade below $10 before the merger, right?  Can make good premium on the $15 calls before then.

 
RE: NRGU @Nick Vermeil

I was holding out for more too.  Not discouraged by the drop back into the low 160's though and even considering adding here.  Kind of hoping for one of those nice 10% drop days to take into the low 150's or even 140's before the end of the year.  I'm not at a full position, but this is one I'd consider going "fullestest" (>2x).  I'm no oil expert, but feel like their run is far from over and $90 barrels are coming (heard a few WS Oil talking heads suggest this) in Q1 2022 and we top that $220 NRGU 52 week high. 
Small buy at 155.5

Dumb luck if I hit todays low.  That buy limit was set premarket.  

 
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Looks like things broke your way this morning, not sure what kind of premium you have but hope you can make some money on this
Yeah, not surprising to see the stock take a dump when the CEO and CFO basically sold every vested share they own. That’s a generational money grab since those guys already sold it and the rubes who bought their shares are down a ton already. I posted that article on this and there’s no way to sugar coat selling all your vested shares as an executive. No other way to spin that you thought the price (they likely sold in the 40s/high 30s not under 25) was way higher than it ever would be again.

 
Dwayne Hoover said:
Looks like things broke your way this morning, not sure what kind of premium you have but hope you can make some money on this




:wub:  It did didn't it?  I can sell now and get the equivalent of about $21 a share. It's currently trading around $23.25 and low today of $22.50. 

Tempted to hold as nobody in their right mind should be holding after the CEO and CFO sold.  However I only paid $0.40 a contract, still holding 4 of them, and can get $3 at the moment.  That's a super gainer already and more than I care to gamble with. 

I'm going to keep an eye on it for now but will probably sell 2 contracts today with expiration on Friday. That way, worst case scenario is if the remaining 2 expire worthless I'll break about even. I think if it breaks $20 it will race to $10 the way it did when it broke $30.

I only wish one of my 20 or so attempts to short it in the 40's and 50's could have gone through but kept getting the message from TD that no shares were available. :(

 
I'm in for NVDA at around $289, seems like a good buying opp
I may nibble but likely waiting for a little more drop. Still hurts knowing I almost pulled the trigger at $190…before the split. 🤦‍♂️ One of many during the big drop last year.

I did add more DOCN but not new cash. Sold my BL. I liked that stock and made some money but not as good long term growth and I already owned some DOCN I bought a while back lower than now. Been consolidating into my favorites rather than spending new cash. Still feel like there could be a little more down.

 
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