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Stock Thread (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
AMC at $22.50 
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I trust @Todemintiution that there's another big sell off coming. Adding another 5, 1/21/22 SPXS $18 calls at $1.03
ETA
I thought I could still buy these after hours but can't. On hold for now, will re-visit tomorrow morning.
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McBokonon
Footballguy
Are we still confident in SE, I bought at 279 thinking we were near the bottom.
beef
Footballguy
I was reading about the options action from Whales on SE and its really split with strike price ranges from $140 to $370. That's meme stock options craziness.Are we still confident in SE, I bought at 279 thinking we were near the bottom
McBokonon
Footballguy
I am long term. In the next 3-12 months who knows?Are we still confident in SE, I bought at 279 thinking we were near the bottom
Sputnikv8
Footballguy
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McBokonon
Footballguy
Yeah, it has, but you can replace SE with pretty much any growth stock. The selling is indiscriminate.
McBokonon
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
SE down 35% in a month would usually get my attention to buy some for a short term play, but since SE rose 65+% over a 6 month span I'm not sure the pain is over yet. Especially since, as pointed out, it's still up on the year and over 20% above it's 52 week low. Taking a step back and looking at it as a long, SE at 220 doesn't look so bad.
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McBokonon
Footballguy
Yep. Zooming out helps.
I understand a lot of people just started buying growth stocks (or stocks in general) in 2021 and if you did, you’re getting hammered. And this might be the first time you’ve gone through this and it’s terrifying and depressing. It DOES get easier. Not easy, but easier.
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McBokonon
Footballguy
Yep, always sucks but they will bounce back. I had an inkling I should have trimmed a bit more. Glad I did and made a nice pile of cash to jump in, but definitely could have made a bigger pile.
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
Maybe I'm stupid, but one thing I look at is the number of short shares. Despite this slide, the number has gone up. I think SE slides a bit more. It's still up a lot over the past two years and has yet to be profitable (nor is it expected to for a while). Not to mention, it's crown jewel (Garena) is losing growth as well.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
More like Satan rally, amiright?
Damn, retail investors are truly going to be multi-billion dollar bag holders. From Yahoo Finance:
GameStop (ticker: GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) were rebounding early on Tuesday, as volume soared. Shares of movie-theater chain AMC Entertainment were up 2%, after slumping 15% Monday, while videogame retailer GameStop rose more than 5% following Monday’s 14% drop. There appears to be momentum among retail investors to buy the dip. Fidelity publishes a list of the most popular stocks being traded by self-directed investors on its platform, and AMC and GameStop were ranked third and sixth respectively on Tuesday.
So the AMC CFO and CEO dump all their vested shares and guess who’s doubling down on their holdings. It reminds me of hot mutual funds like ARKK. Even though the historical returns can look great, most people have actually lost money because 90% of the holdings piled in after the great run in 2021.
As others have told me, it’s a new world, so I don’t feel bad at all.
GameStop (ticker: GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) were rebounding early on Tuesday, as volume soared. Shares of movie-theater chain AMC Entertainment were up 2%, after slumping 15% Monday, while videogame retailer GameStop rose more than 5% following Monday’s 14% drop. There appears to be momentum among retail investors to buy the dip. Fidelity publishes a list of the most popular stocks being traded by self-directed investors on its platform, and AMC and GameStop were ranked third and sixth respectively on Tuesday.
So the AMC CFO and CEO dump all their vested shares and guess who’s doubling down on their holdings. It reminds me of hot mutual funds like ARKK. Even though the historical returns can look great, most people have actually lost money because 90% of the holdings piled in after the great run in 2021.
As others have told me, it’s a new world, so I don’t feel bad at all.
What sucks is that off course I’m already done with my 401k contributions so Inwont even have another contribution until 1/15. At least my wife will get one in a couple weeks. Definitely looking forward to January since my company is weird on matching. They basically do 50% match up to a limit so you get the entire matching in the first few months. That’s why I ratchet up the % so I know I max out. My wife’s is the opposite so you need to make sure you don’t max out early, kind of a PIA.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
We changed to a really annoying system here where they only match once a year at the end of the year (if you are still employed on 12/15). Even worse, it is in company stock that is still up ~65% YTD so very little pricing help this year.
That does suck although 65% up isn’t bad for the stuff you already had.
I know if I ever retire from my current job, I’d do it in April. The 401k match, quarterly bonus and FSA (use it all). Not sure if people know but I happened to read about FSAs and if you were to use it before you’ve contributed, you aren’t on the hook, the company is. Nice little bene. It’s not huge, but it would be a nice set of thousands to send me off!
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It's not like 401k contributions are even a great discount right now. Most 401k's go straight into index funds or boring mutual funds, which mostly aren't even down that much because of the tank that is AAPL.
Got rid of my PLTR and bought more DOCN (growing as well but cheaper multiples). At least save on taxes as well. I’d rather consolidate when stocks are up but I guess it’s not bad buying something I believe will be better long term and is down 10% with a stock that’s actually up due to meme stuff being up.
Sand
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
Added to DOCN, too. Bought a little more $SHOP, $CVS, $KNSL, $MQ, and $MELI. Guess I’ll wait for tomorrow’s FOMC to do more but so far, I like the small purchases I’ve been making.
I do too, haven’t used cash just swapping from one stock to one I like more. I do need some more MELI, but good on KNSL and SHOP. What do you like about MQ? I’ve followed for a while but haven’t bought.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Mostly I like that it’s in the fast-growing payment space but is behind the scenes rather than one of the billion apps competing with one another. Similar to $UPST in that it has a massive concentration risk (Square/Block) but it’s moving in the right direction.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
https://twitter.com/PrestonPysh/status/1470792736626331659
This is ultimately about bitcoin...but good information and charts.
This is ultimately about bitcoin...but good information and charts.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Good or bad for Apple? I ordered a computer November 29 that was supposed to be here today...
As a side note I wanted the keyboard with the numeric keypad. The local Apple store had the computer and the keyboard, but not in the same box. Rather than resolving that locally they thought it made more sense to ship the pair from China.
12/13/2021
9:49 P.M.On the Way
Arrived at Facility
Anchorage, AK, United States
12/13/2021
11:54 P.M.Cleared Import Customs
Your package has cleared customs and is on the way.
12/14/2021
9:30 A.M.Departed from Facility
Incheon, Korea, Republic of
12/14/2021
8:22 A.M.Departed from Facility
Incheon, Korea, Republic of
12/14/2021
4:36 A.M.Arrived at Facility
Incheon, Korea, Republic of
12/14/2021
3:00 A.M.Departed from Facility
Shanghai, China
12/12/2021
1:11 A.M.Your package is in transit. We're updating plans to schedule your delivery. / The package will be forwarded to a UPS facility in the destination city.
Shanghai, China
12/12/2021
12:33 A.M.Your package is in transit. We're updating plans to schedule your delivery.
Shanghai, China
12/10/2021
3:25 P.M.Arrived at Facility
Shanghai, China
12/10/2021
3:10 P.M.Departed from Facility
Shanghai, China
12/10/2021
1:16 A.M.The package is at the clearing agency awaiting final release.
12/10/2021
1:32 P.M.Origin Scan
Shanghai, China
12/10/2021
11:09 A.M.Label Created
Shipper created a label, UPS has not received the package yet.
China
As a side note I wanted the keyboard with the numeric keypad. The local Apple store had the computer and the keyboard, but not in the same box. Rather than resolving that locally they thought it made more sense to ship the pair from China.
12/13/2021
9:49 P.M.On the Way
Arrived at Facility
Anchorage, AK, United States
12/13/2021
11:54 P.M.Cleared Import Customs
Your package has cleared customs and is on the way.
12/14/2021
9:30 A.M.Departed from Facility
Incheon, Korea, Republic of
12/14/2021
8:22 A.M.Departed from Facility
Incheon, Korea, Republic of
12/14/2021
4:36 A.M.Arrived at Facility
Incheon, Korea, Republic of
12/14/2021
3:00 A.M.Departed from Facility
Shanghai, China
12/12/2021
1:11 A.M.Your package is in transit. We're updating plans to schedule your delivery. / The package will be forwarded to a UPS facility in the destination city.
Shanghai, China
12/12/2021
12:33 A.M.Your package is in transit. We're updating plans to schedule your delivery.
Shanghai, China
12/10/2021
3:25 P.M.Arrived at Facility
Shanghai, China
12/10/2021
3:10 P.M.Departed from Facility
Shanghai, China
12/10/2021
1:16 A.M.The package is at the clearing agency awaiting final release.
12/10/2021
1:32 P.M.Origin Scan
Shanghai, China
12/10/2021
11:09 A.M.Label Created
Shipper created a label, UPS has not received the package yet.
China
Sand
Footballguy
All I know if you're getting your stuff from China faster than I'm getting mine from Georgia. The state, not the country.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Looking at June 17 2022, $26 in the money puts. Big premium at $10.60 a contract. AMC, currently at $24.50, would need to fall to $15.40 per share to break even. I think that's extremely likely to be below $10 per share by then.
New Spider-Man movie and short covering is probably why it reversed course today. If we get another bump higher tomorrow, will make a move.
FWIW
New Spider-Man movie and short covering is probably why it reversed course today. If we get another bump higher tomorrow, will make a move.
FWIW
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Thinking different about this. Would need to fall to $5 to double my money. That's not smart.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Energy Fuels Announces Strategic Venture with Nanoscale Powders to Develop Innovative Rare Earth Metal-Making Technology - Nanoscale's patented rare earth metal-making technology has potential to revolutionize rare earth metal making by reducing costs, significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and reducing energy use. Upon the successful completion of the Project and the $10 million investment, Energy Fuels will control the exclusive rights to the entity and the Technology as it relates to REE Metal making.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Bought an additional 10, $19.00, 1/21/22 calls at $1.12 each
I'm correction ready!
beef
Footballguy
Fn Satan rally. Disguises the S&P like it's a winner yet my day traders continue to fall victim to DCA'ing.
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I think the short and mid term might be a roller coaster ride for the markets—but I think the fed stuff is being overblown. Looking at things in a long term/macro view—- even with tapering and rising rates—I don’t see how the taper and increasing our rates from effectively 0 percent to maybe 2.5-3% in the next 2-3 years will remotely offset the massive amount of liquidity the government pumped into the markets and circulation over the past few years. I see a moderate to high inflationary environment for a while—and we’ll be living in a world where everything is expensive—food, rent, cost of living, labor, energy, real estate—and equities. I’m personally hoping for a moderate correction as I like the idea of adding to my equities in this type of environment.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Uranium has cooled a bit overall, so that's hampering this one a little. It's also up 73% YTD, so I imagine some profit taking heading into the year-end.
I'm not trading this one, though. Buy and hold for me. I think uranium spot price will retest $40 and stay there until 2022 Q1, so this stock might not do much in the interim, but again, this is one I've got in my son's portfolio as well as mine and have no designs of coming in and out of it.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I felt there was a strong chance the market would like the FOMC statement, but didn't put more chips on this AM
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2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Sold the last 2 AMC options at $1.97. Meh
Todem
Footballguy
I am fully expecting a moderate correction. My definition is anywhere from 10-20%. Typically it snowballs and with a lot of new young inexperienced money that has entered the market here recently I expect some panic and uneasiness when a moderate 7-10% sell off happens that snowballs to 12-15% sometimes 20% and it happens really fast. This has been a buy the dips market for going on 12 years and I expect that to continue. I, like you remain a long term bull.
There is nothing wrong with a healthy correction and you typically see 1-2 10% corrections in bulls markets during good years. It is nothing new.
People forget about 2018......when the Fed did do a couple of raises from 0 and the market had a fit. Everyone forgot about that.
I did not. And I expect the same type of reaction.
The market will speak at some point. No matter what all these talking heads on CNBC and Fox Business, Bloomberg etc say.....”oh it’s priced in” “the market is expecting it already so no need to worry” yeah.....no need to worry long term but short term the volatility will happen and again we are so high that the speed and violence of algorithmic trading can send a jolt thru the market.
Long term investors should have 95% quality in the portfolio.....then you never have to worry about this stuff long term.
But people approaching (close or very close to retirement) or in retirement need to have a different approach. Rebalancing and reallocating out of a lot of growth and really getting a lot more defensive and dividend and income orientated is critical for those going into 2022 looking to retire soon.
If you are in retirement this is a great time to really analyze your income portfolio and making sure you move out of more interest rate sensitive stuff (cough cough high yield and corporate bond funds and high yield leveraged equites) into more staples, utilities and munis. Make sure your income can be stable and predictable but also making sure your capital won’t get jolted too much either. If the market corrects 20% you don’t need that kind of volatility anymore. You should want a standard deviation (a measure of implied volatility) of at least 35-40% than that of he S&P 500.
So some food for thought for anyone in that position.
It has been a great run.....and shaving off some growth here is prudent if you are very close or in retirement. In fact building cash for one years worth of expense’s is nice rule of thumb when you are expecting a lot more volatility because you can then re-deploy that into some great value dividend paying stocks that will be on sale or add to ones you already own (you are living off your dividends anyway). If it presents itself then that can be a great yield to cost situation and enhance the yield of your portfolio long term.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
As someone that hasn't been doing this that long how different is this with the massive, resilient companies we currently have that prop up indexes like AAPL and MSFT?
As still a relative noobie it feels like those companies (and FAANG in general) have really hidden some massive corrections we've already had. SPY is down like 1.5% since mid-November but that is with AAPL up 20% in that time. If AAPL and other FAANG was down something modest like 2% over that time, SPY would probably already be sitting on a 15% pullback. Lord knows a lot of the other stocks in the index are down that much or more.
There are a lot of companies, even a lot of good ones, that are already way down off their highs. Boeing 36% off it's 52 week high, CRM 22%, Disney 31%, Paypal 40%, etc.
Then you get into the mid-cap and small cap stuff and some of them are 50%+ off their highs already.
QQQ has had two 8% corrections and a 13% correction so far this year, and that's with AAPL/MSFT in there. Take those two out and it's probably more like 15-20% each time.
I guess my question would be, with so much of market health being dictated by the SP500 which is largely driven by a small handful of uber massive and resilient companies, if we actually do see the S&P pull back 15-20% where is that going to leave all the mid/smallcap stuff? How much more can they pull back from the 40-60% they already have? Are we talking 90% here, because that seems more like a crash than a correction.
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