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Stock Thread (15 Viewers)

Capella said:
Anybody think there is a chance the S&P and Dow squeak out a small gain this year or has that ship sailed?
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Possible but I think we come up a little short.  We need data showing we have hit peak inflation and for it to head back down from 8-9% rather quickly and then the Fed to indicate a pause of rate hikes for that scenario.

 
The data indicates we are in a recession or very close to it technically. Won't know until 2Q GDP comes out. It seems likely to be very shallow.

 
I'd like to see the VIX calm down a lot.  That post Covid crash, high VIX, FOMO, rally was fun, but really unhealthy.  I'll feel better about new market highs when we have a VIX sustaining a <20 average, preferably closer to 15.     

Inflation peak data I think we're close or passed it.  Recession (technically) will or is happening, but as long as employment data stays strong I'm not worried at all.  Could argue unemployment being so low is unhealthy.  2.8% in my area.  When all these dead bodies get pulled out of the ground to vote in November, we might have to put them at checkout counters instead of back in the ground. 

 
BassNBrew said:
Thanks for the SOXL tip guys.  Up 68% on this.
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Same situation but up 45% in just 2 weeks in taxable account.  Made huge bet as had a lot of cash parked.  Should I take tax hit or let it ride?  Thinking to hold at least until January .  Any way I can avoid tax hit?

 
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stlrams said:
Same situation but up 45% in just 2 weeks in taxable account.  Made huge bet as had a lot of cash parked.  Should I take tax hit or let it ride?  Thinking to hold at least until January .  Any way I can avoid tax hit?
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I think you have to hold for 1 year to get a tax break.  could be wrong

 
stlrams said:
Same situation but up 45% in just 2 weeks in taxable account.  Made huge bet as had a lot of cash parked.  Should I take tax hit or let it ride?  Thinking to hold at least until January .  Any way I can avoid tax hit?
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Stop working....

In 2022, individual filers won't pay any capital gains tax if their total taxable income is $41,675 or less
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stlrams said:
Same situation but up 45% in just 2 weeks in taxable account.  Made huge bet as had a lot of cash parked.  Should I take tax hit or let it ride?  Thinking to hold at least until January .  Any way I can avoid tax hit?
Click to expand...


I thought a lesson we all learned last year was to just pay the tax instead of giving it all back in the next downturn? 

 
stlrams said:
Same situation but up 45% in just 2 weeks in taxable account.  Made huge bet as had a lot of cash parked.  Should I take tax hit or let it ride?  Thinking to hold at least until January .  Any way I can avoid tax hit?
Click to expand...


Stop working....

In 2022, individual filers won't pay any capital gains tax if their total taxable income is $41,675 or less
Click to expand...

 
McBokonon said:
This is my response to someone mentioning $T. That company is a dumpster fire.
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I do the same on IBM although it’s not as bad. T was 20% higher in 1995. 1995. I know there is a dividend but I’m old and I remember after college my GE money market account earned 5% for many years. With inflation and CDs, T has been a terrible investment over almost 30 years now. IBM is about where it was in April of 1999. Damn, same with GE. I remember when I started working there as a consultant after college, GE was a stud for decades but like T, the stock price is the same as it was in 1995 ignoring dividends.

 
stbugs said:
I do the same on IBM although it’s not as bad. T was 20% higher in 1995. 1995. I know there is a dividend but I’m old and I remember after college my GE money market account earned 5% for many years. With inflation and CDs, T has been a terrible investment over almost 30 years now. IBM is about where it was in April of 1999. Damn, same with GE. I remember when I started working there as a consultant after college, GE was a stud for decades but like T, the stock price is the same as it was in 1995 ignoring dividends.
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And at least IBM has had leadership changes, bought redhat, and have attempted to move where the puck is going. Doesn’t mean they will execute well, but it’s obvious they recognize what’s happening. AT&T essentially has the same leadership and has shown no indication that they have any idea what they’ve done wrong or what to do to fix it. 

 
McBokonon said:
Something about squeezing the shorts, crushing hedge funds, obliterating synthetic shares, etc.

In reality it’s just an accounting thing.
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Yeah, the concept is that shorts will have to acquire shares to accommodate the dividend, but I don't really get it. I'll probably set some downside triggers post-split to take profits if it slides next week. 

 
CCL down 10+ Percent.  I wonder if their starting to run out of cash. I have several friends who are putting off going on trips due to economic and raising Covid concerns.

 
McBokonon said:
AT&T essentially has the same leadership and has shown no indication that they have any idea what they’ve done wrong or what to do to fix it. 
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Seems like the big issue they had was trying to get into the content game and buying DirecTV. Should be a more efficient use of capital the more they can turn back into a pure communications play.

 
JB Breakfast Club said:
Yeah, the concept is that shorts will have to acquire shares to accommodate the dividend, but I don't really get it. I'll probably set some downside triggers post-split to take profits if it slides next week. 
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I don’t either. It’s a stock split. I saw some looney arguments that shorts would have to buy 3 shares to give back the 1 pre-split share they borrowed to short. 😂 

I mean seriously, how can anyone believe that as if no stock with short interest has ever been shorted before. I mean the Tesla shorts must have been crying when they had to by 3 or 4 $1200 shares to cover their 1 share.

I think you’re smart assuming that once those silly rumors wash out, it’ll come back to reality. The funny thing is the split actually makes it much easier to short and less expensive as the options of 100 shares are 1/4 what they were.

 
Capella said:
Tanked all the cruises. I bought some Royal, like the company. 
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Rented a house on Whidbey Island (near Seattle) this summer and really enjoyed watching the gigantic cruise ships heading out to Alaska in the evening.  Some of those things are just massive. 

Still have zero interest in ever taking another cruise, but I'll admit that those things are just astonishing.   

 
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