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General Malaise said:
Pretty ballsy call, honestly.  Smith & Wollensky this week, I hope. 
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The gold call might've been the greatest of my life. The charts showed extreme fatigue from bulls standpoint, I hammered that one and was nicely rewarded  :thumbup:  Pretty incredible move, saw a large fall coming, but that was unbelievable, the runners I left in place made more than the original position.

I'm actually taking a gold long at 1263, tremendous support, giving myself a smaller position to widen stops. A close below 1260 and I'm pretty confident gold is heading to the low 1200's.

 
Also, an oil short looks like it is in the cards, no position yet, but the extremes are to be faded IMO, not chased. 

Would like it to print $50 first.

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
The gold call might've been the greatest of my life. The charts showed extreme fatigue from bulls standpoint, I hammered that one and was nicely rewarded  :thumbup:  Pretty incredible move, saw a large fall coming, but that was unbelievable, the runners I left in place made more than the original position.

I'm actually taking a gold long at 1263, tremendous support, giving myself a smaller position to widen stops. A close below 1260 and I'm pretty confident gold is heading to the low 1200's.
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####!!!! I had that charted like an animal!!! 

$7 bounce at $1264, I hate that!!!

 
Pissed, my real job has kept me really busy and missed the sell off in MEET yesterday.  Bought 250 at $5.92.  Would have bought 1000 yesterday afternoon if I was paying attention. 

 
St. Louis Bob said:
All it does it go straight up.  A little birdie* told me it will be at $10,000 per share in by the end of 2018.
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Would not be surprised if they were the most valuable company in the world in the next 2-4 years. When someone says they don't order products from Amazon, my thought is; "what an idiot."

That's just one line of business for them.

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
Also, an oil short looks like it is in the cards, no position yet, but the extremes are to be faded IMO, not chased. 

Would like it to print $50 first.
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Another awesome ####### play that missed getting filled by a few ticks (49.97). Had a short at 50.05 :kicksrock:

This is a situation where I need to just take a few deep breaths and not chase.

Had a 2 day stretch about a month and a half ago that cost me months and months of solid trading - I've been trying to use that as a lesson, a very expensive one, but one that will be beneficial for longevity trading futures.

Going on tilt trading futures is the equivalent to calling your car insurance company to cancel your policy, then going outside and setting your car on fire right after you end the call.

 
Finally able to catch back up and sell off NFLX yesterday 120 shares@106.85 for after comm profit of $655.72.  So all those who have NFLX, prepare for a run to the moon.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Something spooky happening in the market... You guys pull up the Euro chart (just do it), combined with gold, be on your toes... Something is up.
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Can you unpack this some? Do you think a crash could be imminent? 

Would hold be a great play in that case?

What would you recommend buying if someone was thinking about investing in gold?

 
NREC34 said:
Can you unpack this some? Do you think a crash could be imminent? 

Would hold be a great play in that case?

What would you recommend buying if someone was thinking about investing in gold?
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The currency move turned out to be rumors on ECB QE tapering, ECB came out and denied them today, who knows. 

Imminent crash, not right now, again who knows. I'm far from bullish, but the tape is just so strong, hard to be bearish. There are 10000 buyers for every seller, S&P falls 2% there is a line around the block of buyers. I just don't see the catalyst to move higher, but the bulls are relentless. 

I'd be very cautious on gold right now as it has just smashed support after support level, it's a falling knife, I'm not really touching it. 

This is the chart to pay attention to IMO. Treasury Futures - This market appears to be sniffing out higher rates. This channel is over 3 years old and a lot of people think it could break, and if it does, could break hard and fast. I'd be extremely cautious on yield sensitive stocks, they're already getting taken to the woodshed and the pain might be much heavier.

 
FC what would it mean if gold breaks that trend? So staying in stocks for now is ok in your opinion? I'm selling what pharma stock I have now and finding different sectors to invest in. I know drug pricing has to come up in one of these debates. 

 
NREC34 said:
FC if big banks start failing and the market crashed wouldn't being in gold be a good thing?
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2008 40% equity drop comparison

In economic uncertainty many seem to gravitate toward US treasuries as that seems to be the safest bet. The problem always is when do you realize it's going to be a significant move down and when do you know when the move is done to get back into equities.

 
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siffoin said:
In the chart I posted yesterday the "Blue" Line is a SMA and the "Yellow" line is an EMA.

Time Frame on that chart is daily...so honestly whether you use an EMA or an SMA probably doesn't matter...as what you're determining is the "Zone" of the market - ie: is it in bullish or bearish territory.

Pretty common is to use the 50DMA & the 200DMA.  When the 50 is above the 200 Market is in Bullish Territory.  When 50 is below 200 Market is in Bearish Territory.

I will use slightly different variations of a 50/200 depending on the time frame I'm trading as a confirmation signal.  For example on that chart from yesterday - I use the 89EMA and a 144SMA.  Fibonacci Numbers that (imo) optimize the confirming trend.

If I'm day trading the MA lines will be different 34/89 or 21/55.

As you can see from that chart current price is far above both moving average lines.  While that is indicative of a strong trend - price doesn't tend to maintain that gap.  That means either one should expect price to stay flat while the MA lines "catch up" or that price will decline to the MA lines and then resume the up-trend sometime in the near future.

While I certainly can't predict the future - the technicals of the market suggest that the bull trend is pretty secure for many more weeks and a number of months at the very worst.
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So this post is from July 20th and we were looking at this chart.

July 20, 2016 Chart of the $SPY

Here is the same chart today 

Oct 6, 2016 Chart of $SPY

Both "expectations" occurred here.  #1 PRICE HAS STAYED FLAT for 2+ months.  #2 PRICE MADE A MOVE TO THE MA LINE - both in an effort to "catch up".

So where does the market go from here?  Technically on numerous time frames larger than 1 hour the market is bullish.  And my belief is one should stay faithful to that trend.  However - finding value in this market is another thing altogether.  I've said numerous times - use fundamental analysis to tell you what to buy/sell and technical analysis to tell you when to buy/sell.  Personally I'm finding it difficult to find that "what".  Basically because the market in general "seems" a bit overvalued... in many cases a lot overvalued...and in other cases outrageously overvalued.  I'm not saying sell - and in general I'm not selling.  To me it comes down to risk vs reward.  Risking 20% in an effort to make 10% is what this market feels like right now.  Consolidating Charts  - essentially suggest a bigger move is getting setup and in the cards.  Perhaps waiting on the outcome of the election - but who knows.  Like Jerry Mcguire got his keys to success from Dicky Fox...I lean more to George Costanza.  And regarding the economy in general and this particular market - "It's not a lie - if you believe it."

 
What are peoples thoughts on SBUX? Great company, but it seems like dead money right now, people almost seem tired of this stock. They are growing like crazy in emerging markets. 

 
What are the thoughts on DB?  They have been beaten down tremendously waiting for their fine and it seems like the fine will be lower than expected.

 
Timmay said:
What are peoples thoughts on SBUX? Great company, but it seems like dead money right now, people almost seem tired of this stock. They are growing like crazy in emerging markets. 
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I bought in recently.  They are still expanding and a big hit in China.  Seems cheap to me at this price. :shrug:

 
St. Louis Bob said:
Bought 500 more MEET at $5.56 for 750 at $5.68
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So this is the Warren Buffet in me talking (because I'm too damn old and don't understand Social Media Stocks so I don't own them).

Only 40% of the global population has internet accress - so that's about 3 Billion internet users in the world. Facebook says there are 1.7 billion individual active monthly users.  Which means that nearly 60% of people with internet access use $FB every month.  Now I don't know nuthin' about nuthin' but I don't have a Facebook page, have never had a Facebook page, have never logged into Facebook.  And I personally know a lot of people like me. So 1.7 billion people actively logging into Facebook?  HORSE HOCKEY!

So to me those numbers seem fishy.  On top of that - I'm confident that the revenue they generate (though real) is fleeting.  The day is coming when companies realize that advertising on Social Media platforms does not generate business.  LIKES DOES NOT EQUAL CUSTOMERS.  LIKES DOES NOT ADD TO THE BOTTOM LINE.

The ads are inundating too. So much so that I'd guess human psychology begins to ignore them...then disdain them.  I see an ad on some stupid page I intentionally won't click.  

On top of that there is just so much ad revenue to go around.  Facebook; Meetup, Yelp; Find Me #### Me (that's going to be my new startup Unicorn)....  The dominoes are stacked on a cliffs edge way too far...way too fast.  When the time is right - someone's going to make a fortune shorting these to where they belong- in the same room as Pixelon and Lycos (you know your first choice these days when it comes to internet video streaming and web search).

Now back to my Coca-Cola and a nibble on a See's Candy.

 
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Facebook is a stock I like to follow but in no way would I ever buy in.  I have a facebook account but I rarely use it anymore.

 
Johnnymac said:
Facebook is a stock I like to follow but in no way would I ever buy in.  I have a facebook account but I rarely use it anymore.
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One would think that FBG is a nearly perfect demographic for Facebook users.  

  • Internet Access - Check
  • Regular Internet User- Check
  • Developed Country - Check
  • Aged 25-60 - Check
  • Some College+ - Check
  • Income $50000+ - Check
You and I should be the outlier (I doubt that's the case and I think a lot more people "rarely" use it) - if there was a poll it should be 95%+ FBG are regular $FB users.

 
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