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Stock Thread (19 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
I look a lot at P/S for tech stocks and NVDA is over 30 while AMD is 9. NVDA feels really stretched.
Capella
Footballguy
Yea I’ve done well on my AMD. Might shave it back Tuesday. It’s pretty funny that it’s not near it’s all-time high still.
I think AMD is reasonably priced. I think NVDA is stretched for perfection. I laugh because I read some posts about how the current quarter was great but the beat was still down a decent amount from YoY. The Q2 forecast was great but I almost wonder if there was a rush of orders for data centers to build up AI access and not just a permanent jump. I think they will do well, but P/S of 30+ is a lot.
kevzilla
Footballguy
Texted the old man on Friday morning to let him know that his NVDA buy was up 70% in three months and if he wanted to trim it, I had no objections. He called me before the close and said he wasn't interested. I admitted that I had changed my mind, and that holding it was in his two sons' best interest. Gonna have an Old Fashioned with him on Monday.
I’m enjoying this nice run lately but staring to get a bit worried about how long the run will last. I’ve divested of some things I’m not a big enough fan of and some were good (SE) and some bad (AI, missed last week’s run but very small holding). Starting to think of some others to sell like NFLX, which is fine but I don’t see a huge upside anymore. CDNS is another that I own a lot of mainly because I bought a sizable stake and it’s up 150%. It has popped due to the AI stuff so might be worth a trim.
Any thoughts or are any of you trimming some gains?
Any thoughts or are any of you trimming some gains?
I just sold all my NVDA which had grown to 8% of my portfolio for more than a double up. Ditto 50% of my SOXL which was up 2x. NFLX was a smaller holding, but it's all gone now too. I'm up 35% on the year which is huge after last year. So glad I held tight and didn't move to cash as many were suggesting.
Also dumped a SPAC that was up 3%.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Sold 25% of a smaller NVDA stake and will just ride with the rest in a Roth.
Not selling on my "baby" PLTR because I'm sure I'm right and it will balloon and I'm an idiot.
Not selling on my "baby" PLTR because I'm sure I'm right and it will balloon and I'm an idiot.
The Commish
Footballguy
Need to expand into the Dow side of things away from my comfort zone in tech. What do you guys view as the good buys right now off "the list"? Maybe your top 3-5 recommendations at the moment.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
TGT getting absolutely crushed the past 2 weeks. I'm tempted to buy more in the 125-130 range...feels like it will bounce back once they are out of this press cycle.
I agree - I've been buying a bit of this in the low 130s and below
General Malaise
Footballguy
Let's get real....where are all the moms going to go for back to school shopping? They're going to Target. Always have, always will. They've been buying gay crayons for decades.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
TIL that crayons have a sexual orientation.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Good jobs reports are good again? Not defaulting on loans is also good.
It’s truly hard to understand now. I guess inflation has been going down so maybe avoiding recession has taken the lead?
I know I’ve been enjoying the rally, just don’t know how long it’ll last. Shoutout to MDB today. I sold half my stake back at the end of 2021 at $500+, so not disappointed I only have half but nice to see the climb back and pop.
Just picked up a couple of shares....found a SPAC I still had that was 10% to the good. I had thinned my exposure at $225 a while back.
Do you have a cash percentage you are targeting?
This rally has been great but keep in mind it has been dominated by the mega cap names. GOOGL, AAPP, MSFT, AMZN, and NVDA make up 25% of the S&P 500. The FANG+ index which tracks 10 most traded tech companies is up over 65% YTD. S&P 500 is up 10% YTD. However, an equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 is down .7% YTD. Historically such narrow rallies have been less sustainable.
No, but I’m at 30%, 20% and 3% across 3 non-401k accounts. 30% is the smallest account (a lot smaller), 20% is the biggest. The 3% one is tough because it’s done so darn well lately and AMZN is my largest holding in that account and it’s still the furthest from it’s high compared to the other mega caps, even META. Makes me feel safer that it’s not overextended. The 20% account has the most holdings so easy for me to keep trimming during the rally.
It is up 5% YTD. Got hammered last year though when rates sky rocketed. Should be good over the next few years IMO.
The Commish
Footballguy
Things have really changed in Apple land haven't they? Not too long ago, people would be losing their **** over an announcement like them entering the metaverse. Now? seems like "meh".
Maybe because the metaverse has been a lot of hot air and even the company named after it (META) appears to have walked away to AI. If someone came out with a new Bored Ape Yacht Club type NFT, would you be excited?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Well to be fair, metaverse hype has way died down (AI is the new buzzword) and AAPL is already pretty extendend.
The Commish
Footballguy
Point is....this wouldn't have mattered before. It would have been "OMG!!!! Apple is resurrecting the metaverse!!!!!" kind of stuff. And I'll just point out, AI is likely going to be a big driver in the creation of this metaverse at some point. Just a hunch.
Point is that it matters now. It looks like they announced something that had already been bagged by Meta.
The Commish
Footballguy
Seems like we're basically saying the same thing. That it matters now is a significant change....and I thought I read that Meta has dumped a ton more money into a new headset for their vision. The weird thing about Meta is they can't seem to stay focused on innovating and often get sidetracked so it's hard to tell what their priorities really are.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Wonder how long META can keep lighting money on fire chasing each investing fad.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
This is a good point—and normally I’d fully agree with it—-but AI is giving me pause to doubt myself to a certain extent. One of the biggest hurdles for tech companies is that they tend to need to burn through and spend a lot of money. Often times, people over look profitability for potential growth when it comes to tech companies. I don’t think AI will impact different companies/sectors equally. For example— if a restaurant chain wanted to go full AI and have robot servers and cooks—-that is a giant expense per location—and the end result is that you are replacing a few dozen $15-20/hour employees with millions of dollars of technology. The tech space is different. The integration of AI into tech companies is going to be a lot easier and a lot more seamless—AND—you’ll be replacing a lot of really high paid employees with AI chips and systems that will disproportionally reduce operating costs compared to most other sectors. AI will also vastly reduce research and development costs for them. Of course—as AI gets more and more developed and as prices come down for it moving forward—tech companies could also see more competition down the road. Historically—you’re right—when stuff goes up this much, this fast—and a few stocks have carried the market—normally thats concerning. With that said—it’s hard to predict the upside of these stocks if AI helps solve their biggest weakness— massive operating costs and massive cash burn. A year from now—we could be looking back and saying—wow—those stocks were crazy over valued. There’s also a chance that a year or two from now—we might be saying “dang, I should have bought more of those tech stocks”.
The Commish
Footballguy
As long as the model is "if you're spending time on our pages we're making boatloads" there is no end in sight.
Good points as AI is definately the driving force right now and is the catalyst for the tech space. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
SEC has finally come for COIN
Capella
Footballguy
Feels like there’s one of these every day now. Wasn’t there something with binance yesterday?
Appfolio is a property management software platform that I'm heavily invested in. They just announced that they are implementing a transaction charge of $2.99 per online tenant payment (now free). That's double what I pay to use the entire platform. Unless a bunch of people go back to mailing checks they are about to see a huge revenue spike. Of course this may explain the price jump two weeks ago.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Or go to any of the dozens of alternatives out there that don't charge for it...
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
GME earnings day! Let's go!
GreenNGold
Footballguy
CEO fired, earnings coming up.
Down a bunch. They aren’t hemorrhaging cash as much but missing revenue numbers by 10% is pretty bad and the only reason their earnings weren’t horrible is all the cost cutting. They got their cash horde during the meme craziness but business wise, they are just slowly leaking and with all the cost cutting there’s no innovation and they don’t really own anything unique so zero moat/competitive advantage.
I don’t see GME (or AMC) as good long term investments. Last quarter was positive earnings, but again not due to increased revenue/growth, just cutting to the bone. It only lasted 1 quarter.
GreenNGold
Footballguy
Agreed, anyone still holding should sell while they still have something of value worth selling.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
GameStop will probably mention AI 50 times in the earnings call. They always piggyback whatever is hot hoping to coattail.
McBokonon
Footballguy
They canceled the call, and they never take questions, anyway.
Capella
Footballguy
Yea I was gone all day. What was that about.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Just a bad day to own stonks.
