Stock Thread (23 Viewers)

[Bob Sacamano]

And I'd hesitate to ever call the people in this place normal or typical.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

However you choose to take that, it's probably how I meant it.

 

[Worm]

Sold, sold, sold at the opening bell . I thought to myself: "self, in one year, what will I have wished I had done on 2/21/25?" and I answered myself "I wish I had moved even more into that sweet money market that is paying 4.3% and gotten the heck out of an overpriced market before _____ hit the fan." You're welcome, future me. (Disclosure: allocation now about 50% equities, 20% bonds, 30% cash, a good dozen years until retirement.)

And if the market is up 10% a year from now, what do you do then?

Not questioning your decision in any way, seems incredibly reasonable to me. I’m always just curious how people who are timing the market think about the plan to get back in. You have to be right twice. To come out ahead of just staying the course.

I know people that got out in 2022, and they’re still sitting on a pile of cash waiting for the right time to get back in as the market ran away from them.

You didn't ask me but I'll reply anyway. I have been called an emotional alarmist by some. I am not trying to time the market. I agree that is generally financially unproductive.

From my perspective I am timing the US, and thus the world, uncertainty. I can see this going a number of ways in the next 6-12 months. I have never felt the level of geopolitical apprehension I feel right now, even in active war. I am more than willing to lose a few percent to the market or inflation in that period.

 

[Sand]

Oh, and we have Covid 2.0 coming to a theater near us.

You have a link to get me up to speed, I've seen nothing about this on CNN.

Newsweek: https://www.newsweek.com/new-coronavirus-bat-chinese-lab-2034232


We're all screwed, man. Game over. Been nice knowing some of you.

Not worried about a natural virus - that isn't what got us last time. Now, if you linked to a story about Fauci getting another job I'd be prepping about now.

 

[Wooderson]

Sold, sold, sold at the opening bell . I thought to myself: "self, in one year, what will I have wished I had done on 2/21/25?" and I answered myself "I wish I had moved even more into that sweet money market that is paying 4.3% and gotten the heck out of an overpriced market before _____ hit the fan." You're welcome, future me. (Disclosure: allocation now about 50% equities, 20% bonds, 30% cash, a good dozen years until retirement.)

And if the market is up 10% a year from now, what do you do then?

Not questioning your decision in any way, seems incredibly reasonable to me. I’m always just curious how people who are timing the market think about the plan to get back in. You have to be right twice. To come out ahead of just staying the course.

I know people that got out in 2022, and they’re still sitting on a pile of cash waiting for the right time to get back in as the market ran away from them.

yes, was curious what people seem to feel? Are you/we expecting a 10% correction? 20, 30, 40%? i'm still sitting at a 90/10 allocation with 4 more years to work. I think i'll start to taper down in a couple years, but i remember reading a couple posters here being in cash and missing big windows of gains. again, just curious.

Honestly, I am expecting a World War.

I still have 50% in equities so if the market runs and I miss out on a 10% gain or whatever on the balance, then I'm going be fine living with that. I'll sit on that pile of cash so long as I'm getting north of 4% risk-free. When that dries up and if I still want to eschew equities, I'd buy a house with that money and enjoy positive cash flow.

I was already 5-10% cash and moved that to about 30% today, maybe a little more even.

Unfortunately a lot of my stuff was extended tech so even at 4% a HYSA won't get back just what I lost in the last 2-3 days even after an entire year, but I have the same squirly feelings as everyone else and I've been wanting to get more defensive for a while.

As with 2021, the looming taxes to move my portfolio in that direction made me hesitate a little bit too long. I still hate that moving from an aggressive stock to a defensive stock or yield position is a taxable event. I wish we weren't taxed until withdrawal which is when the money is actually income that we can spend.

I have never moved to a defensive stock or yield position but it has crossed my mind. So you're telling me if I move my money from an aggressive growth portfolio to a money market account I will have to pay tax? Even though I am not receiving any money?

Yes. As soon as you sell the stock, you owe tax on the gains.

I have accounts at 6 different places. Mostly from past jobs of mine and my wife's. I'm planning to move them all to Fidelity so it's easier to manage. I'm guessing I'll have to pay tax on some of these. I have one at TIAA and one at Thrivent those are a mess with there funky options I have my money in.

 

[Schmeabs]

Sold, sold, sold at the opening bell . I thought to myself: "self, in one year, what will I have wished I had done on 2/21/25?" and I answered myself "I wish I had moved even more into that sweet money market that is paying 4.3% and gotten the heck out of an overpriced market before _____ hit the fan." You're welcome, future me. (Disclosure: allocation now about 50% equities, 20% bonds, 30% cash, a good dozen years until retirement.)

And if the market is up 10% a year from now, what do you do then?

Not questioning your decision in any way, seems incredibly reasonable to me. I’m always just curious how people who are timing the market think about the plan to get back in. You have to be right twice. To come out ahead of just staying the course.

I know people that got out in 2022, and they’re still sitting on a pile of cash waiting for the right time to get back in as the market ran away from them.

yes, was curious what people seem to feel? Are you/we expecting a 10% correction? 20, 30, 40%? i'm still sitting at a 90/10 allocation with 4 more years to work. I think i'll start to taper down in a couple years, but i remember reading a couple posters here being in cash and missing big windows of gains. again, just curious.

Honestly, I am expecting a World War.

I still have 50% in equities so if the market runs and I miss out on a 10% gain or whatever on the balance, then I'm going be fine living with that. I'll sit on that pile of cash so long as I'm getting north of 4% risk-free. When that dries up and if I still want to eschew equities, I'd buy a house with that money and enjoy positive cash flow.

I was already 5-10% cash and moved that to about 30% today, maybe a little more even.

Unfortunately a lot of my stuff was extended tech so even at 4% a HYSA won't get back just what I lost in the last 2-3 days even after an entire year, but I have the same squirly feelings as everyone else and I've been wanting to get more defensive for a while.

As with 2021, the looming taxes to move my portfolio in that direction made me hesitate a little bit too long. I still hate that moving from an aggressive stock to a defensive stock or yield position is a taxable event. I wish we weren't taxed until withdrawal which is when the money is actually income that we can spend.

I have never moved to a defensive stock or yield position but it has crossed my mind. So you're telling me if I move my money from an aggressive growth portfolio to a money market account I will have to pay tax? Even though I am not receiving any money?

Yes. As soon as you sell the stock, you owe tax on the gains.

I have accounts at 6 different places. Mostly from past jobs of mine and my wife's. I'm planning to move them all to Fidelity so it's easier to manage. I'm guessing I'll have to pay tax on some of these. I have one at TIAA and one at Thrivent those are a mess with there funky options I have my money in.

Simply transferring your accounts to Fidelity will not incur any taxes owed. Only if Fidelity doesn't accept a security in a non-retirement account where you are forced to sell could there be any capital gains tax.

 

[Wooderson]

Sold, sold, sold at the opening bell . I thought to myself: "self, in one year, what will I have wished I had done on 2/21/25?" and I answered myself "I wish I had moved even more into that sweet money market that is paying 4.3% and gotten the heck out of an overpriced market before _____ hit the fan." You're welcome, future me. (Disclosure: allocation now about 50% equities, 20% bonds, 30% cash, a good dozen years until retirement.)

And if the market is up 10% a year from now, what do you do then?

Not questioning your decision in any way, seems incredibly reasonable to me. I’m always just curious how people who are timing the market think about the plan to get back in. You have to be right twice. To come out ahead of just staying the course.

I know people that got out in 2022, and they’re still sitting on a pile of cash waiting for the right time to get back in as the market ran away from them.

yes, was curious what people seem to feel? Are you/we expecting a 10% correction? 20, 30, 40%? i'm still sitting at a 90/10 allocation with 4 more years to work. I think i'll start to taper down in a couple years, but i remember reading a couple posters here being in cash and missing big windows of gains. again, just curious.

Honestly, I am expecting a World War.

I still have 50% in equities so if the market runs and I miss out on a 10% gain or whatever on the balance, then I'm going be fine living with that. I'll sit on that pile of cash so long as I'm getting north of 4% risk-free. When that dries up and if I still want to eschew equities, I'd buy a house with that money and enjoy positive cash flow.

I was already 5-10% cash and moved that to about 30% today, maybe a little more even.

Unfortunately a lot of my stuff was extended tech so even at 4% a HYSA won't get back just what I lost in the last 2-3 days even after an entire year, but I have the same squirly feelings as everyone else and I've been wanting to get more defensive for a while.

As with 2021, the looming taxes to move my portfolio in that direction made me hesitate a little bit too long. I still hate that moving from an aggressive stock to a defensive stock or yield position is a taxable event. I wish we weren't taxed until withdrawal which is when the money is actually income that we can spend.

I have never moved to a defensive stock or yield position but it has crossed my mind. So you're telling me if I move my money from an aggressive growth portfolio to a money market account I will have to pay tax? Even though I am not receiving any money?

Yes. As soon as you sell the stock, you owe tax on the gains.

I have accounts at 6 different places. Mostly from past jobs of mine and my wife's. I'm planning to move them all to Fidelity so it's easier to manage. I'm guessing I'll have to pay tax on some of these. I have one at TIAA and one at Thrivent those are a mess with there funky options I have my money in.

Simply transferring your accounts to Fidelity will not incur any taxes owed. Only if Fidelity doesn't accept a security in a non-retirement account where you are forced to sell could there be any capital gains tax.

Thanks I have a feeling some of these speciality account this sub tier companies have may not transfer straight over. But Im tired of the high expense ration and having to worry about 6 different platforms.

 

[pecorino]

Sold, sold, sold at the opening bell . I thought to myself: "self, in one year, what will I have wished I had done on 2/21/25?" and I answered myself "I wish I had moved even more into that sweet money market that is paying 4.3% and gotten the heck out of an overpriced market before _____ hit the fan." You're welcome, future me. (Disclosure: allocation now about 50% equities, 20% bonds, 30% cash, a good dozen years until retirement.)

And if the market is up 10% a year from now, what do you do then?

Not questioning your decision in any way, seems incredibly reasonable to me. I’m always just curious how people who are timing the market think about the plan to get back in. You have to be right twice. To come out ahead of just staying the course.

I know people that got out in 2022, and they’re still sitting on a pile of cash waiting for the right time to get back in as the market ran away from them.

yes, was curious what people seem to feel? Are you/we expecting a 10% correction? 20, 30, 40%? i'm still sitting at a 90/10 allocation with 4 more years to work. I think i'll start to taper down in a couple years, but i remember reading a couple posters here being in cash and missing big windows of gains. again, just curious.

Honestly, I am expecting a World War.

I still have 50% in equities so if the market runs and I miss out on a 10% gain or whatever on the balance, then I'm going be fine living with that. I'll sit on that pile of cash so long as I'm getting north of 4% risk-free. When that dries up and if I still want to eschew equities, I'd buy a house with that money and enjoy positive cash flow.

I was already 5-10% cash and moved that to about 30% today, maybe a little more even.

Unfortunately a lot of my stuff was extended tech so even at 4% a HYSA won't get back just what I lost in the last 2-3 days even after an entire year, but I have the same squirly feelings as everyone else and I've been wanting to get more defensive for a while.

As with 2021, the looming taxes to move my portfolio in that direction made me hesitate a little bit too long. I still hate that moving from an aggressive stock to a defensive stock or yield position is a taxable event. I wish we weren't taxed until withdrawal which is when the money is actually income that we can spend.

I have never moved to a defensive stock or yield position but it has crossed my mind. So you're telling me if I move my money from an aggressive growth portfolio to a money market account I will have to pay tax? Even though I am not receiving any money?

Yes. As soon as you sell the stock, you owe tax on the gains.

Sold, sold, sold at the opening bell . I thought to myself: "self, in one year, what will I have wished I had done on 2/21/25?" and I answered myself "I wish I had moved even more into that sweet money market that is paying 4.3% and gotten the heck out of an overpriced market before _____ hit the fan." You're welcome, future me. (Disclosure: allocation now about 50% equities, 20% bonds, 30% cash, a good dozen years until retirement.)

And if the market is up 10% a year from now, what do you do then?

Not questioning your decision in any way, seems incredibly reasonable to me. I’m always just curious how people who are timing the market think about the plan to get back in. You have to be right twice. To come out ahead of just staying the course.

I know people that got out in 2022, and they’re still sitting on a pile of cash waiting for the right time to get back in as the market ran away from them.

yes, was curious what people seem to feel? Are you/we expecting a 10% correction? 20, 30, 40%? i'm still sitting at a 90/10 allocation with 4 more years to work. I think i'll start to taper down in a couple years, but i remember reading a couple posters here being in cash and missing big windows of gains. again, just curious.

Honestly, I am expecting a World War.

I still have 50% in equities so if the market runs and I miss out on a 10% gain or whatever on the balance, then I'm going be fine living with that. I'll sit on that pile of cash so long as I'm getting north of 4% risk-free. When that dries up and if I still want to eschew equities, I'd buy a house with that money and enjoy positive cash flow.

I was already 5-10% cash and moved that to about 30% today, maybe a little more even.

Unfortunately a lot of my stuff was extended tech so even at 4% a HYSA won't get back just what I lost in the last 2-3 days even after an entire year, but I have the same squirly feelings as everyone else and I've been wanting to get more defensive for a while.

As with 2021, the looming taxes to move my portfolio in that direction made me hesitate a little bit too long. I still hate that moving from an aggressive stock to a defensive stock or yield position is a taxable event. I wish we weren't taxed until withdrawal which is when the money is actually income that we can spend.

I have never moved to a defensive stock or yield position but it has crossed my mind. So you're telling me if I move my money from an aggressive growth portfolio to a money market account I will have to pay tax? Even though I am not receiving any money?

Yes. As soon as you sell the stock, you owe tax on the gains.

I have accounts at 6 different places. Mostly from past jobs of mine and my wife's. I'm planning to move them all to Fidelity so it's easier to manage. I'm guessing I'll have to pay tax on some of these. I have one at TIAA and one at Thrivent those are a mess with there funky options I have my money in.

Simply transferring your accounts to Fidelity will not incur any taxes owed. Only if Fidelity doesn't accept a security in a non-retirement account where you are forced to sell could there be any capital gains tax.

Thanks I have a feeling some of these speciality account this sub tier companies have may not transfer straight over. But Im tired of the high expense ration and having to worry about 6 different platforms.

This could be complicated. In theory, you can do a "transfer in kind" and there is no taxable event. Everything is moved seamlessly to a new account. But a peer recently tried to do this in an employer account and they were going to charge a fee since he wasn't fully vested yet. Not to mention, some stuff (like penny stocks) may not be able to be transferred. Somewhat riskier is that you can go ahead and withdraw funds from a taxable account but if you re-invest them in a similar account within 60 days (I think that's the window) then it is not a taxable event. But a "transfer in kind" is what you want to do, if possible.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

Oh, and we have Covid 2.0 coming to a theater near us.

You have a link to get me up to speed, I've seen nothing about this on CNN.

Newsweek: https://www.newsweek.com/new-coronavirus-bat-chinese-lab-2034232


We're all screwed, man. Game over. Been nice knowing some of you.

I'll be smarter with my Cytodyn plays this time.

Sorry. Hope NP is in prison somewhere.

 

[Todem]

You guys are all in rare form today and tonight.

I am LMFAO in a good way.

The sun will come out tomorrow…bet your bottoms it will come out tomorrow….

 

[SFBayDuck]

Wife has been bugging me to de-risk some because she doesn't trust the direction of our country, to put it mildly. So sold out of a lot of overpriced Growth stuff in all 4 of our retirement accounts this morning. Took about 25% off the table. I'll put it in the HY money market account for a bit to see what happens.
I'm pretty calm about the markets and our country long term but her peace of mind is worth forgoing any missed gains.

With money markets still paying 4.5% more or less and with the state of things globally, I'm surprised there isn't more cash on the sidelines. I read a stat yesterday that folks are sitting on much less cash now, what with the exuberance in the past few months. What could go wrong? I've been moving more defensively and even buying some puts.

There are all time record highs in cash - over $7 trillion last I saw.
Sure, us dummies, aka personal or retail investors may be less in cash and more invested.
But Institutions, private equity, pensions etc... are all HEAVY into cash. And Uncle Warren is now over 50% cash. There a lot of cash on the sidelines.

I'm in this crowd as well - too much uncertainty for my taste right now - I moved my 401K 100% to money market last week & have been trimming in ROTH & after tax accts. Sitting about 90% cash total right now. Told myself I'll revisit around when the debt ceiling/budget negotiations come around. Near record highs after the past 2 years we've had seems like a good moment to push pause and take a breath. If I miss out on some gains I'll at least be sleeping better.

Haven't gone so far as to cut bait on any losers in ROTH accounts though - gotta have something to pay attention to!

"Over the past 70 years, we've endured wars, recessions, political turmoil, financial crises, health crises, humanitarian crises, 13 recessions and 11 bear markets. Still, over that timeframe, U.S. stocks have delivered ~8% average annual returns. "

I also look at data like this that shows over this particular 20 year period (03-22) that missing the 10 best days in the market - 7 of which took place in Bear markets! - cost you more than half of the market returns over that timeframe.

Who knows what the next few years will bring? Certainly none of us here in the FFA. Some here seem about ready to begin building bunkers while others are actively gloating. I know I'm still fighting all of the cognitive biases that are highly likely to negatively impact the outcome of my investing, sometimes successfully, sometimes not so much. But for now I'll take solace in looking at history and the resilience of our equity markets and know that while near-term volatility could absolutely impact my intermediate term plans in ways I may not like, the long-term plan hasn't changed.

 

[Todem]

Wife has been bugging me to de-risk some because she doesn't trust the direction of our country, to put it mildly. So sold out of a lot of overpriced Growth stuff in all 4 of our retirement accounts this morning. Took about 25% off the table. I'll put it in the HY money market account for a bit to see what happens.
I'm pretty calm about the markets and our country long term but her peace of mind is worth forgoing any missed gains.

With money markets still paying 4.5% more or less and with the state of things globally, I'm surprised there isn't more cash on the sidelines. I read a stat yesterday that folks are sitting on much less cash now, what with the exuberance in the past few months. What could go wrong? I've been moving more defensively and even buying some puts.

There are all time record highs in cash - over $7 trillion last I saw.
Sure, us dummies, aka personal or retail investors may be less in cash and more invested.
But Institutions, private equity, pensions etc... are all HEAVY into cash. And Uncle Warren is now over 50% cash. There a lot of cash on the sidelines.

I'm in this crowd as well - too much uncertainty for my taste right now - I moved my 401K 100% to money market last week & have been trimming in ROTH & after tax accts. Sitting about 90% cash total right now. Told myself I'll revisit around when the debt ceiling/budget negotiations come around. Near record highs after the past 2 years we've had seems like a good moment to push pause and take a breath. If I miss out on some gains I'll at least be sleeping better.

Haven't gone so far as to cut bait on any losers in ROTH accounts though - gotta have something to pay attention to!

"Over the past 70 years, we've endured wars, recessions, political turmoil, financial crises, health crises, humanitarian crises, 13 recessions and 11 bear markets. Still, over that timeframe, U.S. stocks have delivered ~8% average annual returns. "

I also look at data like this that shows over this particular 20 year period (03-22) that missing the 10 best days in the market - 7 of which took place in Bear markets! - cost you more than half of the market returns over that timeframe.

Who knows what the next few years will bring? Certainly none of us here in the FFA. Some here seem about ready to begin building bunkers while others are actively gloating. I know I'm still fighting all of the cognitive biases that are highly likely to negatively impact the outcome of my investing, sometimes successfully, sometimes not so much. But for now I'll take solace in looking at history and the resilience of our equity markets and know that while near-term volatility could absolutely impact my intermediate term plans in ways I may not like, the long-term plan hasn't changed.

Yeah basically. Well said.

We talked about building some powder weeks back and just doing some trimming….still prudent at these short term levels.

IRA’s/401K’s keep plugging away.

Corrections are part of the journey.

 

[ericttspikes]

Oh, and we have Covid 2.0 coming to a theater near us.

China: "Tariffs ? I'd hate for this bat virus to jump to humans again."

 

[fruity pebbles]

I’m the bearish one in here. You guys are making me more bullish.

 

[Todem]

I’m the bearish one in here. You guys are making me more bullish.

We are all in this together!!!!

 

[Sand]

I’m the bearish one in here. You guys are making me more bullish.

 

[Capella]

I’m the bearish one in here. You guys are making me more bullish.

Yea I’m still buying. Got some nvda 10 days ago or whatever around 113. Isn’t February usually sucksville no matter what’s going on?

 

[fruity pebbles]

I’m the bearish one in here. You guys are making me more bullish.

Yea I’m still buying. Got some nvda 10 days ago or whatever around 113. Isn’t February usually sucksville no matter what’s going on?

I actually bought big cap tech at the close. MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL and META. All have already gotten a 10-15% haircut

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Wife has been bugging me to de-risk some because she doesn't trust the direction of our country, to put it mildly. So sold out of a lot of overpriced Growth stuff in all 4 of our retirement accounts this morning. Took about 25% off the table. I'll put it in the HY money market account for a bit to see what happens.
I'm pretty calm about the markets and our country long term but her peace of mind is worth forgoing any missed gains.

With money markets still paying 4.5% more or less and with the state of things globally, I'm surprised there isn't more cash on the sidelines. I read a stat yesterday that folks are sitting on much less cash now, what with the exuberance in the past few months. What could go wrong? I've been moving more defensively and even buying some puts.

There are all time record highs in cash - over $7 trillion last I saw.
Sure, us dummies, aka personal or retail investors may be less in cash and more invested.
But Institutions, private equity, pensions etc... are all HEAVY into cash. And Uncle Warren is now over 50% cash. There a lot of cash on the sidelines.

I'm in this crowd as well - too much uncertainty for my taste right now - I moved my 401K 100% to money market last week & have been trimming in ROTH & after tax accts. Sitting about 90% cash total right now. Told myself I'll revisit around when the debt ceiling/budget negotiations come around. Near record highs after the past 2 years we've had seems like a good moment to push pause and take a breath. If I miss out on some gains I'll at least be sleeping better.

Haven't gone so far as to cut bait on any losers in ROTH accounts though - gotta have something to pay attention to!

"Over the past 70 years, we've endured wars, recessions, political turmoil, financial crises, health crises, humanitarian crises, 13 recessions and 11 bear markets. Still, over that timeframe, U.S. stocks have delivered ~8% average annual returns. "

I also look at data like this that shows over this particular 20 year period (03-22) that missing the 10 best days in the market - 7 of which took place in Bear markets! - cost you more than half of the market returns over that timeframe.

Who knows what the next few years will bring? Certainly none of us here in the FFA. Some here seem about ready to begin building bunkers while others are actively gloating. I know I'm still fighting all of the cognitive biases that are highly likely to negatively impact the outcome of my investing, sometimes successfully, sometimes not so much. But for now I'll take solace in looking at history and the resilience of our equity markets and know that while near-term volatility could absolutely impact my intermediate term plans in ways I may not like, the long-term plan hasn't changed.

I understand your point. I used to feel the same way. I hope you’re right.

 

[NajehHejan]

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/chinese-researchers-find-bat-virus-enters-human-cells-via-same-pathway-covid-2025-02-21/

Someone just beat me to it, but I’m jumping feet first into some NVAX Monday morning. So cheap at $8 per share.

 

[BassNBrew]

You guys are all in rare form today and tonight.

I am LMFAO in a good way.

The sun will come out tomorrow…bet your bottoms it will come out tomorrow….

Usually when it gets like this in here it's time to buy.

 

[BassNBrew]

Wife has been bugging me to de-risk some because she doesn't trust the direction of our country, to put it mildly. So sold out of a lot of overpriced Growth stuff in all 4 of our retirement accounts this morning. Took about 25% off the table. I'll put it in the HY money market account for a bit to see what happens.
I'm pretty calm about the markets and our country long term but her peace of mind is worth forgoing any missed gains.

With money markets still paying 4.5% more or less and with the state of things globally, I'm surprised there isn't more cash on the sidelines. I read a stat yesterday that folks are sitting on much less cash now, what with the exuberance in the past few months. What could go wrong? I've been moving more defensively and even buying some puts.

There are all time record highs in cash - over $7 trillion last I saw.
Sure, us dummies, aka personal or retail investors may be less in cash and more invested.
But Institutions, private equity, pensions etc... are all HEAVY into cash. And Uncle Warren is now over 50% cash. There a lot of cash on the sidelines.

I'm in this crowd as well - too much uncertainty for my taste right now - I moved my 401K 100% to money market last week & have been trimming in ROTH & after tax accts. Sitting about 90% cash total right now. Told myself I'll revisit around when the debt ceiling/budget negotiations come around. Near record highs after the past 2 years we've had seems like a good moment to push pause and take a breath. If I miss out on some gains I'll at least be sleeping better.

Haven't gone so far as to cut bait on any losers in ROTH accounts though - gotta have something to pay attention to!

"Over the past 70 years, we've endured wars, recessions, political turmoil, financial crises, health crises, humanitarian crises, 13 recessions and 11 bear markets. Still, over that timeframe, U.S. stocks have delivered ~8% average annual returns. "

I also look at data like this that shows over this particular 20 year period (03-22) that missing the 10 best days in the market - 7 of which took place in Bear markets! - cost you more than half of the market returns over that timeframe.

Who knows what the next few years will bring? Certainly none of us here in the FFA. Some here seem about ready to begin building bunkers while others are actively gloating. I know I'm still fighting all of the cognitive biases that are highly likely to negatively impact the outcome of my investing, sometimes successfully, sometimes not so much. But for now I'll take solace in looking at history and the resilience of our equity markets and know that while near-term volatility could absolutely impact my intermediate term plans in ways I may not like, the long-term plan hasn't changed.

Data like that is interesting, but do it again for the 10 worst days and see what the result is. I wouldn't mind missing a 10% up day if it's in the middle of a 30% down period.

That said, we should all be cheering for cheaper stocks. If I'm retiring in 20 years, I'd rather the market stay flat for 19 years and then pop 300% in year 20 rather than grow 8% every year. I didn't run those numbers so they may not be accurate, but the point is that drawbacks are buying opportunities.

 

[pecorino]

You guys are all in rare form today and tonight.

I am LMFAO in a good way.

The sun will come out tomorrow…bet your bottoms it will come out tomorrow….

Glad you're all smiles about the state of things, and I'll just stick to the economy which is truly one of the least of my worries. My sister works at the FBI and stands to lose her job any day now (or will leave given the changes at the top) and I'm surrounded by peers and clients whose anxiety is through the roof considering what they are seeing and hearing and experiencing as they try to buy a house or go out for a nice meal. Good luck to all in their investment strategies. I, for one, don't feel out of line mimicking Mr Buffett who has a portfolio now that is more cash than equities (but pretty close to 50/50). There's something to be said for weathering storms. Seems like it's a better strategy to do ones' best to avoid them.

 

[BeTheMatch]

Buffet's "shocking" sales of all his S&P 500 index funds represented a whopping .1 percent of his portfolio.

Calm down.

I tend to agree that rough times are due to be coming, but none of us know ANYTHING. So why bother?

Unless you're very close to or already into retirement, I don't know why you'd do anything.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Buffet's "shocking" sales of all his S&P 500 index funds represented a whopping .1 percent of his portfolio.

Calm down.

I tend to agree that rough times are due to be coming, but none of us know ANYTHING. So why bother?

Unless you're very close to or already into retirement, I don't know why you'd do anything.

Not to mention he’s almost 100 years old. Who knows his reasoning or purpose.

 

[McBokonon]

Yeah, not to disparage Mr. Buffett but his investing reasons are not my investing reasons
or your investing reasons. He’s taking gigantic chunks of old school stocks like OXY, making arbitrage wagers on SiriusXM, betting on Latin American digital banking, insurance, etc. What he’s doing is pretty specific to him and Berkshire. They’re built like an aircraft carrier and they move like one with the odd growth wager.

 

[Capella]

There's something to be said for weathering storms. Seems like it's a better strategy to do ones' best to avoid them.

My question to this is how do you know when the storm is over. Feels like you’d always miss the crazy high rebound days that come out of nowhere.

 

[pecorino]

There's something to be said for weathering storms. Seems like it's a better strategy to do ones' best to avoid them.

My question to this is how do you know when the storm is over. Feels like you’d always miss the crazy high rebound days that come out of nowhere.

If markets rip higher from here, I'm going to be happy, having kept 50% in equities and watching that grow. I'm not a FOMO guy. Plus I'm still dollar-cost-averaging with monthly contributions through work. I'll have a decision to make when the risk-free rate drops--most likely I would buy real estate with the cash on the sidelines if equites are even richer than they are now. I don't want to take out mortgages on rental properties given current rates.

If the market drops, I'll probably buy back in with a tranche if it hits correction territory (down 10%) and a second tranche if there is a 20% drop. I'm not going to pretend to know when a bottom is in, but I'd like to have a decent amount of cash to be able to keep buying slices throughout a significant decline. And to be clear, I didn't sell all in one fell swoop last week but instead been raising cash for several months. But I took the biggest step Friday morning to get to the most conservative allocation I've ever had.

 

[SFBayDuck]

There's something to be said for weathering storms. Seems like it's a better strategy to do ones' best to avoid them.

My question to this is how do you know when the storm is over. Feels like you’d always miss the crazy high rebound days that come out of nowhere.

If markets rip higher from here, I'm going to be happy, having kept 50% in equities and watching that grow. I'm not a FOMO guy. Plus I'm still dollar-cost-averaging with monthly contributions through work. I'll have a decision to make when the risk-free rate drops--most likely I would buy real estate with the cash on the sidelines if equites are even richer than they are now. I don't want to take out mortgages on rental properties given current rates.

If the market drops, I'll probably buy back in with a tranche if it hits correction territory (down 10%) and a second tranche if there is a 20% drop. I'm not going to pretend to know when a bottom is in, but I'd like to have a decent amount of cash to be able to keep buying slices throughout a significant decline. And to be clear, I didn't sell all in one fell swoop last week but instead been raising cash for several months. But I took the biggest step Friday morning to get to the most conservative allocation I've ever had.

Makes sense. The key is to have a plan and stick to it. It’s having no plan and making emotional decisions that gets people in trouble.

 

[Todem]

You guys are all in rare form today and tonight.

I am LMFAO in a good way.

The sun will come out tomorrow…bet your bottoms it will come out tomorrow….

Glad you're all smiles about the state of things, and I'll just stick to the economy which is truly one of the least of my worries. My sister works at the FBI and stands to lose her job any day now (or will leave given the changes at the top) and I'm surrounded by peers and clients whose anxiety is through the roof considering what they are seeing and hearing and experiencing as they try to buy a house or go out for a nice meal. Good luck to all in their investment strategies. I, for one, don't feel out of line mimicking Mr Buffett who has a portfolio now that is more cash than equities (but pretty close to 50/50). There's something to be said for weathering storms. Seems like it's a better strategy to do ones' best to avoid them.

Do whatever you want…….and yeah it’s a stock thread. So when I see doomsaying it’s a clear signal for me to have cash ready to buy.

I mean I talked about it weeks ago in trimming and building cash. And I have followed Buffet since 1987…..he is also a hell of lot older than me and a lot more cynical these days. But he still knows when a short term top is in. It’s definitely prudent building cash…..but 50% is way past my threshold here…..25-30% tops. I don’t like to time long term at all.

I am not commenting on anything political because all that is to me is noise and makes people make bad, emotional decisions.

Sorry your family is being affected by the current state of things.

But I am just trying to be light in here and not get anyone depreseed.

 

[Todem]

There's something to be said for weathering storms. Seems like it's a better strategy to do ones' best to avoid them.

My question to this is how do you know when the storm is over. Feels like you’d always miss the crazy high rebound days that come out of nowhere.

If markets rip higher from here, I'm going to be happy, having kept 50% in equities and watching that grow. I'm not a FOMO guy. Plus I'm still dollar-cost-averaging with monthly contributions through work. I'll have a decision to make when the risk-free rate drops--most likely I would buy real estate with the cash on the sidelines if equites are even richer than they are now. I don't want to take out mortgages on rental properties given current rates.

If the market drops, I'll probably buy back in with a tranche if it hits correction territory (down 10%) and a second tranche if there is a 20% drop. I'm not going to pretend to know when a bottom is in, but I'd like to have a decent amount of cash to be able to keep buying slices throughout a significant decline. And to be clear, I didn't sell all in one fell swoop last week but instead been raising cash for several months. But I took the biggest step Friday morning to get to the most conservative allocation I've ever had.

Makes sense. The key is to have a plan and stick to it. It’s having no plan and making emotional decisions that gets people in trouble.

Exactly right.

 

[Harry Frogfish]

Oh, and we have Covid 2.0 coming to a theater near us.

You have a link to get me up to speed, I've seen nothing about this on CNN.

Newsweek: https://www.newsweek.com/new-coronavirus-bat-chinese-lab-2034232


We're all screwed, man. Game over. Been nice knowing some of you.

I'll be smarter with my Cytodyn plays this time.

Sorry. Hope NP is in prison somewhere.

I questioned and was nice about that whole scam, and was myself called out to a degree, He and I went at it, at one point.

There's s a bookie in here that was in the same boat, btw, and he also would get defended like he was this trusted, great guy.

Still amazing to me, watching it unfold, you could see it a mile away.

Sorry to anyone that it cost money.

 

[Capella]

You guys are all in rare form today and tonight.

I am LMFAO in a good way.

The sun will come out tomorrow…bet your bottoms it will come out tomorrow….

Glad you're all smiles about the state of things, and I'll just stick to the economy which is truly one of the least of my worries. My sister works at the FBI and stands to lose her job any day now (or will leave given the changes at the top) and I'm surrounded by peers and clients whose anxiety is through the roof considering what they are seeing and hearing and experiencing as they try to buy a house or go out for a nice meal. Good luck to all in their investment strategies. I, for one, don't feel out of line mimicking Mr Buffett who has a portfolio now that is more cash than equities (but pretty close to 50/50). There's something to be said for weathering storms. Seems like it's a better strategy to do ones' best to avoid them.

Do whatever you want…….and yeah it’s a stock thread. So when I see doomsaying it’s a clear signal for me to have cash ready to buy.

I mean I talked about it weeks ago in trimming and building cash. And I have followed Buffet since 1987…..he is also a hell of lot older than me and a lot more cynical these days. But he still knows when a short term top is in. It’s definitely prudent building cash…..but 50% is way past my threshold here…..25-30% tops. I don’t like to time long term at all.

I am not commenting on anything political because all that is to me is noise and makes people make bad, emotional decisions.

Sorry your family is being affected by the current state of things.

But I am just trying to be light in here and not get anyone depreseed.

Hell yea and keep posting your great advice. I owe you a very nice bottle of your favorite something.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Oh, and we have Covid 2.0 coming to a theater near us.

You have a link to get me up to speed, I've seen nothing about this on CNN.

Newsweek: https://www.newsweek.com/new-coronavirus-bat-chinese-lab-2034232


We're all screwed, man. Game over. Been nice knowing some of you.

I'll be smarter with my Cytodyn plays this time.

Sorry. Hope NP is in prison somewhere.

I questioned and was nice about that whole scam, and was myself called out to a degree, He and I went at it, at one point.

There's s a bookie in here that was in the same boat, btw, and he also would get defended like he was this trusted, great guy.

Still amazing to me, watching it unfold, you could see it a mile away.

Sorry to anyone that it cost money.

Definition of a pump and dump

 

[BassNBrew]

You guys are all in rare form today and tonight.

I am LMFAO in a good way.

The sun will come out tomorrow…bet your bottoms it will come out tomorrow….

Glad you're all smiles about the state of things, and I'll just stick to the economy which is truly one of the least of my worries. My sister works at the FBI and stands to lose her job any day now (or will leave given the changes at the top) and I'm surrounded by peers and clients whose anxiety is through the roof considering what they are seeing and hearing and experiencing as they try to buy a house or go out for a nice meal. Good luck to all in their investment strategies. I, for one, don't feel out of line mimicking Mr Buffett who has a portfolio now that is more cash than equities (but pretty close to 50/50). There's something to be said for weathering storms. Seems like it's a better strategy to do ones' best to avoid them.

Don’t like it for anyone, but us non government folks have been through this numerous times.

 

[Harry Frogfish]

Oh, and we have Covid 2.0 coming to a theater near us.

You have a link to get me up to speed, I've seen nothing about this on CNN.

Newsweek: https://www.newsweek.com/new-coronavirus-bat-chinese-lab-2034232


We're all screwed, man. Game over. Been nice knowing some of you.

I'll be smarter with my Cytodyn plays this time.

Sorry. Hope NP is in prison somewhere.

I questioned and was nice about that whole scam, and was myself called out to a degree, He and I went at it, at one point.

There's s a bookie in here that was in the same boat, btw, and he also would get defended like he was this trusted, great guy.

Still amazing to me, watching it unfold, you could see it a mile away.

Sorry to anyone that it cost money.

Definition of a pump and dump

Yep. Can we do it in 5 letters? Anyone can pick.

Crook.

Crime.

And there were posters who loved the guy (who else here was in on it?). Surprised it somehow "slid" by, a LOT of money changed hands on that one. People lost a lot of money. Sad.

A level of manipulation that should be delved into, imho.

 

[kevzilla]

I think I'm in line to get 47 cents out of HGEN.

 

[BassNBrew]

Oh, and we have Covid 2.0 coming to a theater near us.

You have a link to get me up to speed, I've seen nothing about this on CNN.

Newsweek: https://www.newsweek.com/new-coronavirus-bat-chinese-lab-2034232


We're all screwed, man. Game over. Been nice knowing some of you.

I'll be smarter with my Cytodyn plays this time.

Sorry. Hope NP is in prison somewhere.

I questioned and was nice about that whole scam, and was myself called out to a degree, He and I went at it, at one point.

There's s a bookie in here that was in the same boat, btw, and he also would get defended like he was this trusted, great guy.

Still amazing to me, watching it unfold, you could see it a mile away.

Sorry to anyone that it cost money.

Definition of a pump and dump

Yep. Can we do it in 5 letters? Anyone can pick.

Crook.

Crime.

And there were posters who loved the guy (who else here was in on it?). Surprised it somehow "slid" by, a LOT of money changed hands on that one. People lost a lot of money. Sad.

A level of manipulation that should be delved into, imho.

Remember the vicious attacks if you posted a dissenting opinion. Fortunately I was on computer when the crash happened and successfully day traded. I remember dissecting the finances and it was a total house of cards.

 

[BassNBrew]

lol. Cydy has tripled in the last 2 months

 

[Ridgeback]

Yoy

I think I'm in line to get 47 cents out of HGEN.

You too?

 

[dancingbones]

Wife has been bugging me to de-risk some because she doesn't trust the direction of our country, to put it mildly. So sold out of a lot of overpriced Growth stuff in all 4 of our retirement accounts this morning. Took about 25% off the table. I'll put it in the HY money market account for a bit to see what happens.
I'm pretty calm about the markets and our country long term but her peace of mind is worth forgoing any missed gains.

With money markets still paying 4.5% more or less and with the state of things globally, I'm surprised there isn't more cash on the sidelines. I read a stat yesterday that folks are sitting on much less cash now, what with the exuberance in the past few months. What could go wrong? I've been moving more defensively and even buying some puts.

There are all time record highs in cash - over $7 trillion last I saw.
Sure, us dummies, aka personal or retail investors may be less in cash and more invested.
But Institutions, private equity, pensions etc... are all HEAVY into cash. And Uncle Warren is now over 50% cash. There a lot of cash on the sidelines.

I'm in this crowd as well - too much uncertainty for my taste right now - I moved my 401K 100% to money market last week & have been trimming in ROTH & after tax accts. Sitting about 90% cash total right now. Told myself I'll revisit around when the debt ceiling/budget negotiations come around. Near record highs after the past 2 years we've had seems like a good moment to push pause and take a breath. If I miss out on some gains I'll at least be sleeping better.

Haven't gone so far as to cut bait on any losers in ROTH accounts though - gotta have something to pay attention to!

"Over the past 70 years, we've endured wars, recessions, political turmoil, financial crises, health crises, humanitarian crises, 13 recessions and 11 bear markets. Still, over that timeframe, U.S. stocks have delivered ~8% average annual returns. "

I also look at data like this that shows over this particular 20 year period (03-22) that missing the 10 best days in the market - 7 of which took place in Bear markets! - cost you more than half of the market returns over that timeframe.

Who knows what the next few years will bring? Certainly none of us here in the FFA. Some here seem about ready to begin building bunkers while others are actively gloating. I know I'm still fighting all of the cognitive biases that are highly likely to negatively impact the outcome of my investing, sometimes successfully, sometimes not so much. But for now I'll take solace in looking at history and the resilience of our equity markets and know that while near-term volatility could absolutely impact my intermediate term plans in ways I may not like, the long-term plan hasn't changed.

My concern is that our independent agencies that tend to the economic plumbing and other basic government infrastructure have been largely insulated from being politicized - by design. That infrastructure has been a stabilizing influence for longer than I have been alive, and I believe that has played an integral part in providing a steady, measured hand to see us through the twists & turns of the post WWII era.

That is rapidly changing. So much is being dismantled right now, and in a very haphazard way.

I also believe in the law of unintended consequences. If the US dollar loses its standing as the preferred reserve currency of the world, our debt becomes a much bigger problem for us.

I sure hope I am wrong, but I am not willing to bet my life savings on that hope.

So, it's an abundance of caution for me - and I'll revisit around debt ceiling/budget time and see how that bit of governing is going and look newly then.

 

[dancingbones]

There's something to be said for weathering storms. Seems like it's a better strategy to do ones' best to avoid them.

My question to this is how do you know when the storm is over. Feels like you’d always miss the crazy high rebound days that come out of nowhere.

If markets rip higher from here, I'm going to be happy, having kept 50% in equities and watching that grow. I'm not a FOMO guy. Plus I'm still dollar-cost-averaging with monthly contributions through work. I'll have a decision to make when the risk-free rate drops--most likely I would buy real estate with the cash on the sidelines if equites are even richer than they are now. I don't want to take out mortgages on rental properties given current rates.

If the market drops, I'll probably buy back in with a tranche if it hits correction territory (down 10%) and a second tranche if there is a 20% drop. I'm not going to pretend to know when a bottom is in, but I'd like to have a decent amount of cash to be able to keep buying slices throughout a significant decline. And to be clear, I didn't sell all in one fell swoop last week but instead been raising cash for several months. But I took the biggest step Friday morning to get to the most conservative allocation I've ever had.

Makes sense. The key is to have a plan and stick to it. It’s having no plan and making emotional decisions that gets people in trouble.

Hey, I resemble that remark!

 

[fruity pebbles]

Wife has been bugging me to de-risk some because she doesn't trust the direction of our country, to put it mildly. So sold out of a lot of overpriced Growth stuff in all 4 of our retirement accounts this morning. Took about 25% off the table. I'll put it in the HY money market account for a bit to see what happens.
I'm pretty calm about the markets and our country long term but her peace of mind is worth forgoing any missed gains.

With money markets still paying 4.5% more or less and with the state of things globally, I'm surprised there isn't more cash on the sidelines. I read a stat yesterday that folks are sitting on much less cash now, what with the exuberance in the past few months. What could go wrong? I've been moving more defensively and even buying some puts.

There are all time record highs in cash - over $7 trillion last I saw.
Sure, us dummies, aka personal or retail investors may be less in cash and more invested.
But Institutions, private equity, pensions etc... are all HEAVY into cash. And Uncle Warren is now over 50% cash. There a lot of cash on the sidelines.

I'm in this crowd as well - too much uncertainty for my taste right now - I moved my 401K 100% to money market last week & have been trimming in ROTH & after tax accts. Sitting about 90% cash total right now. Told myself I'll revisit around when the debt ceiling/budget negotiations come around. Near record highs after the past 2 years we've had seems like a good moment to push pause and take a breath. If I miss out on some gains I'll at least be sleeping better.

Haven't gone so far as to cut bait on any losers in ROTH accounts though - gotta have something to pay attention to!

"Over the past 70 years, we've endured wars, recessions, political turmoil, financial crises, health crises, humanitarian crises, 13 recessions and 11 bear markets. Still, over that timeframe, U.S. stocks have delivered ~8% average annual returns. "

I also look at data like this that shows over this particular 20 year period (03-22) that missing the 10 best days in the market - 7 of which took place in Bear markets! - cost you more than half of the market returns over that timeframe.

Who knows what the next few years will bring? Certainly none of us here in the FFA. Some here seem about ready to begin building bunkers while others are actively gloating. I know I'm still fighting all of the cognitive biases that are highly likely to negatively impact the outcome of my investing, sometimes successfully, sometimes not so much. But for now I'll take solace in looking at history and the resilience of our equity markets and know that while near-term volatility could absolutely impact my intermediate term plans in ways I may not like, the long-term plan hasn't changed.

My concern is that our independent agencies that tend to the economic plumbing and other basic government infrastructure have been largely insulated from being politicized - by design. That infrastructure has been a stabilizing influence for longer than I have been alive, and I believe that has played an integral part in providing a steady, measured hand to see us through the twists & turns of the post WWII era.

That is rapidly changing. So much is being dismantled right now, and in a very haphazard way.

I also believe in the law of unintended consequences. If the US dollar loses its standing as the preferred reserve currency of the world, our debt becomes a much bigger problem for us.

I sure hope I am wrong, but I am not willing to bet my life savings on that hope.

So, it's an abundance of caution for me - and I'll revisit around debt ceiling/budget time and see how that bit of governing is going and look newly then.

For the dollar to lose its standing as the reserve currency, there needs to be a replacement and nothing else is even close.

 

[General Malaise]

Unemployment scares me. There might be a LOT of very qualified people suddenly chasing very few open jobs. I always try to identify a catalyst for problems. I was shorting stocks for years before the housing bubble but that was a very clear catalyst for financial doom that many of us on this message board were screaming about before it happened.

You want to tell me what this economy looks like with a meteroric rise in Unemployment?

 

[General Malaise]

Stagflation anyone?

 

[pecorino]

Stagflation anyone?

I read the term “slugflation” thus morning: sluggish growth with high inflation. A rose by any other name…

 

[General Malaise]

Stagflation anyone?

I read the term “slugflation” thus morning: sluggish growth with high inflation. A rose by any other name…

We have inflation already, that was the biggest problem in the country if memory serves me right. And now rate cuts are coming, so that isn't going to help.

The catalyst we didn't see coming was a giant increase in unemployment. And maybe I'm wrong here, but take a look around. Good people - qualified people - are losing their jobs.

Where do they go? What do they do?

 

[BassNBrew]

Stagflation anyone?

I read the term “slugflation” thus morning: sluggish growth with high inflation. A rose by any other name…

We have inflation already, that was the biggest problem in the country if memory serves me right. And now rate cuts are coming, so that isn't going to help.

The catalyst we didn't see coming was a giant increase in unemployment. And maybe I'm wrong here, but take a look around. Good people - qualified people - are losing their jobs.

Where do they go? What do they do?

Same place the 10% of Meta workforce and 8% of Google workforce and 10% of Boeing went in 2022 and 2023? Obviously not ideal, but it's never ideal.

Where did you see rate cuts? I thought the Fed nixed that?

 

[pecorino]

The Fed signaled a pause in rate cuts given persistent inflation. I don't recall if they cited tariffs, too, but that may also lead to the Fed holding rates steady. I'm not counting on cuts any time soon.

 

[Sand]

Stagflation anyone?

I read the term “slugflation” thus morning: sluggish growth with high inflation. A rose by any other name…

And now rate cuts are coming

The rate cuts we did have were incredibly premature. IMO we are significantly more likely to see rate hikes rather than cuts. That's what the mortgage and bond markets are saying.